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大越期货甲醇早报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 05:02
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-04甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509: 1、基本面:基本面分化加剧,预计甲醇后期区域性走势特征凸显。港口市场,预计本周进口到货集中下,港口累库概 率较大,同时浙江煤制烯烃装置停车检修加上行业淡季,一定程度上拖累整体需求,预测本周港口市场偏弱调整为主, 需持续关注进口到货及宏观外围消息。内地方面,虽然甲醇开工处于增加趋势,但内地企业库存偏低短期供应无压力, 叠加烯烃装置重启以及西北CTO企业仍有外采需求,供需基本面健康对内地甲醇价格有支撑,但同时受港口弱势行情拖 累,预计后期内地甲醇维持窄幅震荡调整阶段;中性 2、基差:江苏甲醇现货价为2410元/吨,09合约基 ...
大越期货玻璃早报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the production profit of glass has recovered. The cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, with the start - up rate and output dropping to historical lows. Deep - processing orders are weaker than in previous years, and terminal demand is weak. The policy benefits have faded, and in the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. - There is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the follow - up inventory reduction sustainability is questionable. Glass is expected to have a wide - range fluctuating operation [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided. Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, the start - up rate and output have dropped to historical lows, deep - processing orders are weaker than in previous years, and terminal demand is weak [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1164 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2509 is 1102 yuan/ton, and the basis is 62 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.87% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases [2]. - **Expectation**: The policy benefits have faded, and in the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low, the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, traders and processors are cautious, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream enterprises have carried out phased replenishment, resulting in a reduction in the glass factory inventory. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and glass is expected to have a wide - range fluctuating operation [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 1164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.96% from the previous value; the main basis is 62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.46% from the previous value [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Cost Side - The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data [15][16]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Production and Supply - The number of start - up float glass production lines nationwide is 222, with a start - up rate of 75%. The number of start - up production lines is at a historical low in the same period [22]. - The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [24]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [28]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.87% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [41]. 3.10 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [42].
大越期货原油周报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:47
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (7.28-8.1) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周,原油先扬后抑,纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶67.26美元,周涨2.85%;伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶69.52美 元,周涨1.65%;中国上海原油期货收于每桶513元,周涨0.02%。周初,美国总统特朗普表示将把原先给俄罗斯的俄乌停火最后期限提前,按照 新的期限,俄罗斯需要在10天内与乌克兰达成停火协议,特朗普称,若俄罗斯未能与乌克兰达成停火协议,美国可能会对其施加经济惩罚,其 中包括对进口俄罗斯能源的国家施加二级制裁。与此同时,周内特朗普已宣布自8月1日起对印度进口商品征收25%关税, ...
工业硅期货早报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply increased last week, demand remained weak, costs in Xinjiang decreased during the wet season, and it is expected to oscillate between 8305 - 8695 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is expected to increase in August, demand shows signs of decline but may rebound later, and it is expected to oscillate between 47790 - 50610 [9][11]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, making the downward trend difficult to change [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% week - on - week decrease. Demand is persistently low [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 2354 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On August 1st, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 1050 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 540,000 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week increase; sample enterprise inventory was 171,450 tons, a 3.40% week - on - week decrease; major port inventory was 119,000 tons, a 0.83% week - on - week decrease [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling is decreasing and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support is increasing, and it is expected to oscillate between 8305 - 8695 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% week - on - week increase. The scheduled production in August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% week - on - week decrease; inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% week - on - week increase. Silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9500 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On August 1st, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 229,000 tons, a 5.76% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [13]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows signs of decline but may rebound later, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to oscillate between 47790 - 50610 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased, with the 09 contract down 2.97% week - on - week [19]. - Spot prices of some products remained stable, while the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 1.02% [19]. - Social inventory increased by 0.93% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 3.41% week - on - week, and major port inventory decreased by 0.83% week - on - week [19]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [21]. - Weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and inventory decreased by 22.06% week - on - week [21]. - Monthly battery cell output increased by 1.90% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 24.25% [21]. - Monthly component output increased by 1.73% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 8.44% [21]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show historical price and basis changes [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical inventory changes of different regions and ports [27]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical production and capacity utilization changes of sample enterprises [29]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical price changes of main production areas' electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrodes, and some reducing agents [34]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends show the historical cost and profit changes of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the historical supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations [38][41]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon trends show the production, price, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [44]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy trends show the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloys [52]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon trends show the cost, price, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other aspects of polysilicon [62]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component composition cost - profit trends (210mm) show the cost and profit trends of 210mm component compositions [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends show the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and solar power generation [81].
大越期货尿素早报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:12
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑:国际价格,国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点:出口政策变化 尿素早报 2025-8-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述: • 1. 基本面:近期尿素盘面震荡回落。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应 方面,日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置,库存再度累库。需求端,工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落, 三聚氰胺开工亦回落,农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显,出口政策未超预 期放开。交割品现货1750(-0),基本面整体中性; • 2. 基差: UR2509合约基差41,升贴水比例2.3%,偏多; • 3. 库存:UR综合库存143.1万吨(+0.9),偏空; • 4. 盘面: UR主力合约 ...
大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term digestion of the anti - involution in the macro - aspect did not lead to better transaction volume with price drops. Downstream buyers still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the industrial chain, ore prices and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, but some ferronickel quotes rebounded. The cost line remained low. July and August are traditional off - seasons for stainless steel consumption, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial for the increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - Technically, on the daily K - line, the price is running below the 20 - day moving average. The important support and resistance levels of the Fibonacci retracement are effective. The main funds have not decreased, and short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD indicator shows a death cross, and the KDJ has entered the oversold area with a rebound demand. Overall, it is expected to move in a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Weak operation this week, with long - term oversupply unchanged. The macro - situation has short - term digestion, downstream purchases are rigid - demand based, and new energy vehicle data is positive [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% prices remained unchanged from last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased by 2.95%, 3.19%, and 3.10% respectively [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: Low - grade ferronickel in Shandong decreased by 3.03%, while high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, high - grade ferronickel increased by 2.5 yuan/nickel, and low - grade ferronickel increased by 100 yuan/ton [13][46][47]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 0.18% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were flat. As of July 31, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 9.9436 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In June 2025, nickel ore imports were 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state, and downstream procurement was cautious [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers made rigid - demand purchases. The import window opened, and some Norwegian nickel resources increased. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply pattern remains. In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons. Import and export data also showed certain changes [25][26][30]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices were weakly stable. In June 2025, China's nickel pig iron production was 23,300 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35%. The import volume in June was 1.041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.0% [45][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased slightly. In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month. The import volume was 109,500 tons, and the export volume was 390,000 tons. As of August 1, the national inventory was 1.1112 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 6,700 tons [59][64][71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June 2025, the production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [77][78]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The Fibonacci retracement levels are effective. The main funds are still active, short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD shows a death cross, and the KDJ is in the oversold area, indicating a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Combing Summary - **Influence on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore and ferronickel are neutral - bearish; refined nickel is neutral; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral - bullish [88]. - **Trading Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [90].
大越期货白糖周报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:04
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报(7.28-8.1) 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾: 本周随着中美贸易谈判延期,不及市场预期,总体商品持续走弱,白糖短期见顶回落。 StoneX:25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩下调70万吨,至304万吨。2025年5月底,24/25年度本期制 糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨;全国累计销糖811.38万吨;销糖率72.69%(去年同期66.17%)。 2025年6月中国进口食糖42万吨,同比增加39万吨;进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.57万吨,同 比减少10.32万吨。 09合约临近交割,主力即将换月01合约。消费旺季即将过去,随着外糖持续走低,郑糖也出现震 荡 ...
大越期货沪铝周报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:03
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报(7.28~8.1) 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号:Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面(库存结构) 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周评: 沪铝上周震荡调整下跌,上周主力合约下跌1.2%,周五收盘报20510元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能, 国内房地产压制需求不振,取消对铝材出口退税,对于国内铝价构成利空,美国关税不确定性仍存。 国内基本面上,需求进入淡季,等待消费复苏。上周LME库存462800吨,较前周出现小幅增加,SHFE周 库存增1737吨至117527吨。 期货主力 数据来源:博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源:Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | -- ...
橡胶策略周报:短线操作-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:03
策略周报(7.28—8.1) | 分析师: | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | 橡胶:短线操作 橡胶期货 研究结论 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 一、期货行情回顾 | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU2509 | 15595 | 15635 | 14275 | 14310 | -8.18% | | NR2509 | 13340 | 13385 | 12080 | 12175 | -8.6% | | BR2509 | 12415 | 12415 | 11380 | 11455 | -7.73% | 衍 生 品 本周市场大跌,跟随整体市场回落 市场情绪主导 短线操作 本周市场大跌,跟随整体市场回落。价格不断上涨后,做空力量不断增强,叠 加政治局最新表态偏空,市场看涨情绪消退,商品价格大跌。技术图形上短期呈现 偏空格局。 策略周报 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 23 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14300 元 ...
大越期货油脂早报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:03
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by China has led to a rally in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations has an impact on the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logical focus is on the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The current main risk is the El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 126, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [5]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 76, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply and Demand Aspects - **Supply**: Includes aspects such as imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12][14][19][22][24][26]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned [16].