Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with a decrease in steel mill's hot metal production and a reduction in this month's arrival volume. The port inventory is decreasing, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy. The trade war is easing. Considering various factors such as basis, inventory, and technical aspects, the market is expected to be in a high - level shock. The domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan of capacity reduction impacts the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Steel mill's hot metal production starts to decrease, this month's arrival volume decreases, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory decreases, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy, trade war eases; overall assessment is neutral [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 836, with a basis of 49; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 854, with a basis of 67. The spot is at a premium to the futures; assessment is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - The port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; assessment is neutral [2]. Technical Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward; assessment is neutral [2]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is held, and the long position decreases; assessment is bullish [2]. Expectation - Domestic demand decreases, and the capacity reduction plan impacts the market. Adopt a high - level shock mindset [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory decreases [6]. - Import incurs losses [6]. - The downstream steel price rises, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The nickel ore price is firm, the nickel - iron price drops slightly, and the stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly. The new - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The medium - and long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 2512 contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, the sea freight is stable, the nickel - iron price drops slightly, and the cost line moves down. The stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly. The 2512 contract of stainless steel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - **镍期货**: On October 27, the price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,400 yuan, up 250 yuan from October 24; the price of the London nickel was 15,335 yuan, up 10 yuan. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 120,850 yuan, down 1,000 yuan [12]. - **不锈钢 futures**: On October 27, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815 yuan, up 5 yuan from October 24 [12]. - **Nickel spot**: On October 27, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,050 yuan, up 150 yuan from October 24; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,300 yuan, up 100 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 122,250 yuan, up 200 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 124,300 yuan, up 200 yuan [12]. - **Stainless - steel spot**: The prices of cold - rolled coils 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged from October 24 to October 27 [12]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel inventory**: As of October 27, the LME nickel inventory was 251,238 tons, an increase of 384 tons from October 24; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipt was 29,780 tons, an increase of 2,970 tons. The total inventory was 281,018 tons, an increase of 3,354 tons [15]. - **Stainless - steel inventory**: On October 24, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0274 million tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 649,300 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons. As of October 27, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt was 73,896 tons, a decrease of 299 tons from October 24 [19][20]. 3.3 Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - **Nickel ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 30 US dollars per wet ton, remaining unchanged from October 24. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, both remaining unchanged [23]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel wet - ton (8 - 12) was 928.5 yuan per nickel point, down 2 yuan from October 24; the price of low - nickel wet - ton (below 2) was 3,150 yuan per ton, down 150 yuan [23]. 3.4 Stainless - steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,936 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,237 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,776 yuan [25]. 3.5 Nickel Import Cost The converted import price of nickel was 123,095 yuan per ton [28]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut; anti - involution policy; firm ore price with a cost support line at 120,000 yuan [6]. - **Negative factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, and there is no new growth point in demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Environmental and safety measures have tightened, coal mine复产 is below expectations, and production capacity release is limited. With stable coking and steel demand and some speculative traders entering the market, coal mines have new orders and smooth shipments, with some tight - resource coal prices rising. The basis shows spot premium, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net long. After the second round of coke price increase, coke enterprises' profit has slightly recovered, and the procurement of raw coal has increased. However, due to low profit and high raw material prices, coke enterprises' production increase willingness is low, and coking coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After two rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' profit has slightly recovered, and their production enthusiasm has increased, but the profit recovery is less than expected, so some enterprises still maintain production restrictions. Coke shipments are smooth, and inventory is tight. The basis shows spot discount, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short. Supported by steel mills' acceptance of price increases, coke enterprises are optimistic, and sales are good. However, considering the continuous decline in molten iron production and poor terminal demand, the room for coke price increase is limited, and coke prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - **Coking Coal**: On October 27, 2025, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at various ports are provided, with some prices rising. For example, the price of Russian main coking coal K4 at Caofeidian Port is 1340 with a rise of 115 [9]. - **Coke**: On October 27, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke from different ports and origins have increased. For example, the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Langya Port is 1530, up 40 [8]. 3.2 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [17]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Other Data - **Coking Coal**: The national 230 independent coke enterprise samples have a capacity utilization rate of 74.48% [39]. - **Coke**: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [43].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年10月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：全球贸易局势缓和，金价继续回落；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大 股指收盘小幅上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌3.46个基点报 3.976%；美元指数跌0.12%报98.82，人民币创两个月最大涨幅，离岸人民币对美元 贬值报7.1091；COMEX黄金期货跌3.40%报3997.00美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货934.14，现货932.58，基差-1.56，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单87015千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows mixed signals. Fundamentally, multiple factors such as production, consumption, and import - export data are somewhat bearish, but there are also bullish factors like the basis and the position of the K - line relative to the 20 - day average. The overall expectation is that the new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, previous negative news has been digested, the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 will continue to fluctuate and rebound [4]. - Bullish factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors are ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The content does not contain a previous day's review section. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 cotton year. For example, the ICAC 9 - month report predicts a production and consumption of 2550 million tons; the USDA 9 - month report predicts a production of 2562.2 million tons and consumption of 2587.2 million tons with an ending inventory of 1592.5 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 25/26 year in October: production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,833, and the basis is 1268 (01 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons in the 25/26 year in October, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, previous negative news has been digested, the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 will continue to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus The content does not contain a today's focus section. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast**: In the 25/26 year, global cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons from the previous forecast; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons; and ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons [12][13]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 25/26 year, global production is 2.590 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); and global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) [14]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 year, production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and ending inventory is 822,000 tons [16]. 3.5 Position Data The content does not contain position data other than the description of the main position being bearish and the net short position decreasing in the daily tips section.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The basis shows a discount to futures, and the inventory situation is complex. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, but the main position has turned from long to short. Overall, with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances, the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. - There are both global policy easing and trade - war escalation factors affecting the copper market [3]. - In 2024, the copper market will have a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental analysis of copper shows a neutral situation as supply has disturbances, and the manufacturing PMI has improved [2]. - The basis is - 180, indicating a neutral situation with the spot price at 88190 and a discount to futures [2]. - On October 27, copper inventory decreased by 375 to 135975 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5448 tons to 104792 tons compared to last week, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upward, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The main net position is short after changing from long, indicating a bearish sign [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The factors affecting the copper market include global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus in the copper market, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank will resume trading of treasury bonds in the open market. Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, with the decline intensifying in the evening. Treasury bond futures rose collectively, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.32%. The central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 148.3 billion yuan. The inter - bank market liquidity tightened significantly, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions jumped more than 13bp to 1.45% [2]. - The central bank has increased the amount of MLF renewals for the eighth consecutive month. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but remained below the boom - bust line. The CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI's year - on - year increase expanded for the fifth consecutive month. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, the first cut this year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The central bank's actions led to changes in bond yields and futures prices. The 30 - year "25 Extra - long Special Treasury Bond 06" yield declined by 5.75bp, and the 10 - year "25 Coupon - bearing Treasury Bond 16" yield declined by 5bp. Treasury bond futures rose, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.32% [2]. - **Funding situation**: On October 27, the central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 148.3 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The TS main contract basis was - 0.0023 (spot discount to futures, bearish). The TF main contract basis was 0.0850 (spot premium to futures, somewhat bullish). The T main contract basis was 0.1987 (spot premium to futures, bullish), and the TL main contract basis was 0.3712 (spot premium to futures, bullish) [2]. - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, a neutral situation [3]. - **Market trend**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above their 20 - day moving averages, and the 20 - day moving averages were upward, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - **Main positions**: The TS and TF main contracts had net long positions, with long positions increasing. The T main contract had a net long position, but long positions decreased [4]. - **Contract data**: | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Change in Open Interest | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.175 | 0.15% | 75942 | 229240 | 2285 | 220017.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 105.745 | 0.12% | 58124 | 134170 | 4746 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.388 | 0.05% | 29975 | 67050 | - 122 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 115.40 | 0.32% | 113706 | 141776 | 2710 | 220008.IB | [7] 3.2. Spot Bond Analysis - No specific text - based analysis of spot bonds is provided, but there are charts related to DR interest rates, inter - bank treasury bond yields, and treasury bond term spreads [8][11][12]. 3.3. Basis Analysis - There are charts showing the basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year CFFEX treasury bond futures [14][17][18]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 PTA： 1、基本面：受行业座谈会消息影响，下午开盘后PTA期货大幅上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差企稳。本周在01贴水 80~82附近成交，个别偏低，价格商谈区间在4440~4565附近。11月中上在01-77有成交，11月中在01-75成交，11月下在01- 68-70有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-81。中性 2、基差：现货4490，01合约基差-126，盘面贴水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.07天，环比减少0.01天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏躲 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 ...

• 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率开始高位回落，综合库存小幅回落。需求端，农业需求受天气 影响有所回升，工业需求显著偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率回落。出口内外价差较大但有所回 落，出口量提升。国内尿素整体仍供过于求，但行情短期预计回暖。交割品现货1590（+20）， 基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-50，升贴水比例-3.1%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存184万吨（-20.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面反弹，工业需求偏弱，农业需求回升，国际尿素价格偏强出口量 提升，国内整体供过于求仍明显，短期价格预计回暖，预计UR今日走势震荡偏强 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-28 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃供 给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1246元/吨，基差为-56元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.21万吨，较前一周增加0.09%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-28 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主 ...