交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-4 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、成本支撑 • 2、原油偏强 • 利空 • 1、下游需求同比偏弱 • 主要逻辑：供过于求，供需边际变化敏感 • 主要风险点：原油大幅波动、国际政策博弈 • PP概述： • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。近期受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，原油走势偏强短期回落，带动装置利润差、成本支撑强的 聚烯烃跟随波动。供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，停工放假企业增多，整体订单少，包装膜企业 同样订单偏少。当前L ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 基本面VS关税，粕类短空长多 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 基本面VS关税，粕类短空长多 目 录 一.中美和中加关税 二.南美大豆丰产，粕类短期承压 三.粕类短空长多 四.其他农产品整体判断 一 .中美和中加关税 • 中美短期休兵，双方博弈"明转暗" • 中加关税恢复至冲突前 • 关税和贸易政策潜在冲突仍可能存在 中美短期休兵 • 中美达成"休战"协议（2025年10月吉隆坡）：第五轮磋商取 得实质性进展，双方达成贸易"休战"协议，核心成果包括： • 关税调整：美方取消针对中国商品加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关 税" ，24%的对等关税继续暂停一年；中方相应调整反制措施。 • 出口管制暂停：美方暂停实施其出口管制"50%穿透性规则"一 年；中方暂停实施相关反制措 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents a daily analysis of commodity options on February 3, 2026, including option quotes, positions, position put - call ratios (PCR), trading volume PCR, daily selections, and expiring options [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Quotes - **Call Options**: The daily price changes of call options for various commodities are as follows: caustic soda 25.56%, soybean No.1 10.88%, glass 5.93%, alumina 4.35%, log 4.35%, urea 2.56%, soda ash 0.83%, live pigs -0.89%, industrial silicon -1.20%, and coking coal -6.82% [1]. - **Put Options**: The daily price changes of put options for various commodities are as follows: aluminum 226.06%, gold 167.01%, crude oil 163.21%, nickel 160.80%, zinc 124.65%, asphalt 115.38%, copper 111.09%, tin 100.80%, short - fiber 86.27%, and propylene 81.94% [1]. Option Positions - **Call Options**: The daily changes in call option positions for various commodities are as follows: silver 17,592, PVC 15,946, lithium carbonate 15,190, gold 9,214, crude oil 8,620, cotton 7,875, rebar 6,476, nickel 4,499, soybean oil 4,492, and aluminum 4,239 [2]. - **Put Options**: The daily changes in put option positions for various commodities are as follows: rebar 6,362, iron ore 6,048, cotton 4,914, PVC 3,827, ethylene glycol 1,935, industrial silicon 1,836, p - xylene 1,662, pulp 1,435, soybean No.1 973, and caustic soda 908 [2]. Option Position Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - **High - PCR Varieties**: Apple (1.5398), propylene (1.2883), silver (1.1913), offset printing paper (1.1046), bottle chips (1.0715), synthetic rubber (1.0563), short - fiber (1.0469), tin (1.0416), iron ore (0.9809), and soybean No.2 (0.9541) [5]. - **Low - PCR Varieties**: Alumina (0.2124), live pigs (0.25), soda ash (0.2662), red dates (0.2997), caustic soda (0.3143), lead (0.36), ethylene glycol (0.36), PVC (0.3737), glass (0.3919), and log (0.402) [5]. Option Trading Volume Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - **High - PCR Varieties**: Apple (1.9086), silver (1.7914), polysilicon (1.5875), short - fiber (1.2317), tin (1.1859), cast aluminum alloy (1.1792), asphalt (1.1556), rapeseed oil (1.0876), zinc (1.0869), and platinum (1.074) [6]. - **Low - PCR Varieties**: Live pigs (0.1636), red dates (0.2312), alumina (0.2584), PVC (0.259), coking coal (0.2987), natural rubber (0.3238), manganese silicon (0.327), caustic soda (0.3361), pure benzene (0.3709), and log (0.3833) [6]. Daily Selections - **Call Options**: Recommended call options include PVC, caustic soda, soybean No.1, sugar, alumina, red dates, polypropylene, and soda ash, with corresponding trend degrees, put - call ratios, and remaining days [7]. - **Put Options**: Recommended put options include pulp, lead, CSI 300, polysilicon, live pigs, eggs, lithium carbonate, and nickel, with corresponding trend degrees, put - call ratios, and remaining days [7]. Expiring Options - **Call Option**: The expiring call option for crude oil (sc2603C475) has a remaining day of 1, an option closing price of 1.45, a underlying settlement price of 472.7, a break - even underlying price of 496.45 (a 5.02% increase), and an option doubling underlying price of 517.9 (a 9.56% increase) [8]. - **Put Option**: The expiring put option for crude oil (sc2603P470) has a remaining day of 1, an option closing price of 25.4, a underlying settlement price of 472.7, a break - even underlying price of 424.6 (a - 10.18% decrease), and an option doubling underlying price of 379.2 (a - 19.78% decrease) [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2026年2月3日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21569吨，环比减少2.91%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96819吨，环比增加0.24%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18691 吨，环比减少0.93%。 供给端，2025年12月碳酸锂产量为99200实物吨，预测下月产量为97970实物吨，环比减少1.23%,2025年12月 碳酸锂进口量为23989实物吨，预测下月进口量为22500实物吨，环比减少6.20%。需求端，预计下月需求有所 强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，供需格局转 向 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply decreased last week, demand increased, and the cost support rose during the dry - season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8675 - 8915. The fundamentals are bullish [6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling continued to decrease, demand showed some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support remained stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 45850 - 48250. The fundamentals are bullish [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to halt or reduce production [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Slow demand recovery after the holiday; strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9859.7 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 554,000 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 209,000 tons, a 1.92% week - on - week decrease; main port inventory was 138,000 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% week - on - week decrease. The predicted production scheduling for February was 79,700 tons, a 20.93% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.75GW, an 8.19% week - on - week increase. The inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon was 38,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 11,850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the price of N - type dense material was 50,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 333,000 tons, a 0.90% week - on - week increase, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and short positions turned to long [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices showed different changes, such as the 01 contract price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remaining unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: Different types of inventory, including social, sample enterprise, and port inventory, had different changes, with social inventory decreasing by 0.36% week - on - week [15]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Sample enterprise production decreased by 1.36% week - on - week, and the Xinjiang sample utilization rate decreased by 1.44% week - on - week [15]. - **Cost**: Costs in different regions, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, showed different trends [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices of polysilicon products, such as N - type silicon wafers and dense materials, showed different changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.91% week - on - week [17]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and the photovoltaic cell monthly production decreased by 11.38% month - on - month [17]. - **Cost**: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-03原油早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2603： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周一表示，他已与印度达成贸易协议，将美国对印度商品的关税从50%削减 至18%，作为交换，印度将降低贸易壁垒，停止购买俄罗斯石油；知情人士透露，中国独立炼油厂正 在购买折扣伊朗重质原油，以替代委内瑞拉原油供应；伊朗与美方官员告诉路透，伊朗与美国将于周 五在土耳其重启核谈判，同时美国总统特朗普警告，随着大型美国军舰正开往伊朗，若无法达成协议 恐将发生不好的事情；中性 2.基差：2月2日，阿曼原油现货价为65.43美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.72美元/桶，基差13.83 元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至1月23日当周API原油库存减少24.7万桶，预期增加145万桶；美国至1月23日当周EIA 库存减少229.5万桶，预期增加184.8万桶；库欣地区库存至1月23日当周减少27.8万桶，前值增加147.8 万桶；截止至2月2日，上海原油期货库存为346.4万桶，不变；偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-03甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：本周国内甲醇市场低位震荡概率较大。内地方面，春节前甲醇工厂仍以积极出货维持库存为主，供应相对 宽松。但随着春节临近，部分传统下游陆续停工放假。基本面仍显弱势，对行情有一定压制作用。与此同时，部分下游 仍有备货需求，且当前产销地区甲醇价格均处在底部空间，尤其是运费坚挺支撑销区到货价格。多空交织下预计后期内 地甲醇窄幅震荡。港口方面，压力边界上移至2400，预计在宏观未有炒作点的情况下，本周港口现货市场在压力位下方 区间震荡。关注地缘风险带来的市场不确定，巨大的政治冲突或快速改变定价逻辑，让市场波动不断加剧；中性 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年2月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 6、预期: 电石法成本走强，乙烯法成本走强，总体成本走强；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减 少，预计排产将会增加。总体库存处于中性位置；当前需求或持续低迷；持续关注宏观政策及出口 动态，PVC2605:在4956-5072区间震荡。 3 每日观点 2、基差: 02月02日，华东SG-5价为4860元/吨，05合约基差为-154元/吨，现货贴水期货。 偏空。 3、库存: 厂内库存为29.0183万吨，环比减少5.81%，电石法厂库为21.1173万吨，环比减少5.71%，乙烯法 厂库为7.901万吨，环比减少6.09%，社会库存为58.466万吨，环比增加1. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年2月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 3 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为27.325%，环比减少1.20个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.445万吨，环比减少5.80%,样本企业产 量为45.6万吨，环比减少4.20%,样本企业装置检修量预估为102.2万吨，环比增加1.79%,本周炼厂有所减产，降 低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为25.5%，环比减少0.05个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%， 环比减少0.50个百分点，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2240 - 2300. Affected by the easing of China - Canada trade relations, it is weakly oscillating in the short - term but will maintain range - bound oscillations in the medium - term [9]. - After the overall negative factors are digested, rapeseed meal will still maintain an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [9]. Summary of Each Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Due to China - Canada trade issues, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed has decreased, reducing the expected supply in China [11]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short - term. The tariffs imposed by both sides are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include good post - Spring Festival demand expectations for Chinese rapeseed meal and the fact that oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors are the short - term off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the upcoming resumption of China's imports of Canadian rapeseed due to improved China - Canada trade relations [12]. - The current main logical focus of the market is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From January 23 to February 2, the trading average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2390 - 2480 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0 or relatively small, with a maximum of 33,000 tons on January 23 [13]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian from January 26 to February 2 was between 2430 - 2480 yuan, and the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605) fluctuated between 2269 - 2325 yuan [15]. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 0 from January 23 to February 2, with a reduction of 15 on January 23 compared to the previous day [17]. - From 2016 - 2025, the domestic rapeseed harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and other data showed certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 1.71 in 2016 to 10.56 in 2025 [19]. - From 2016 - 2025, the domestic rapeseed meal's initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, and other data also showed fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 4.16 in 2016 to 9.85 in 2025 [21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental aspect: Rapeseed meal oscillated and declined, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. After the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the market returned to an oscillating state. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low - level inventory supports the market. With good post - Spring Festival demand expectations, it is weakly oscillating in the short - term and range - bound oscillating in the medium - term [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2460 yuan, with a basis of 184 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory is 43.78 tons, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease from last week's 44.95 tons, and a 12.79% year - on - year decrease from the 50,200 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main positions: The main short positions have increased and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9]. - Expectation: Affected by the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal bottomed out and rebounded. After the overall negative impact is digested, it will still maintain an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [9].