Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 2840 and 2900. Factors such as the movement of US soybeans, high imports of soybeans in October, and the discount of spot prices are influencing the market. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4100. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production are suppressing the price [11]. - The market is focusing on the impact of US soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game for both soybeans and soybean meal [14][15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation remains deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to remain volatile above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased from the high level in October. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - **Bullish factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - **Bearish factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybeans - **Bullish factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - **Bearish factors**: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2870, with a basis of - 29, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 14, showing a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 to 2024, data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented, showing overall trends in global soybean supply and demand [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Similar to the global balance table, data from 2015 to 2024 are provided for the domestic market, reflecting the domestic soybean supply - demand situation [33]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - For soybeans, the main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [11]. Others - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: Data on soybean and meal futures and spot prices from October 13 to 21 are provided, showing price trends [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: Data on warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal from October 10 to 21 are presented, including changes compared to the previous day [20]. - **Soybean Meal Spot Price**: The spot price of soybean meal is relatively stable, and the discount of spot price to futures has narrowed slightly [23]. - **US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: Data on the planting, growth, and harvest progress of US soybeans in 2024 and 2025 are detailed, including comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38][42]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Data on the planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in 2024 - 2025 are provided, including comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [39][40][41]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: Data from the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show changes in planting area, yield, production, ending inventory, and other indicators [43]. - **Soybean Import and Export and Inventory**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded month - on - month but declined year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in October but increased year - on - year overall. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remained high, and the inventory of soybean meal decreased from the high level [44][46][47]. - **Livestock Market**: The pig inventory is on the rise, sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently declined again, and piglet prices are weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly. The profit of domestic pig - farming has recently worsened [55][57][59][61].

1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%,同比 增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为37.3921%，环比增加0.359个百分点，全国样 本企业出货25.335万吨，环比增加14.48%,样本企业产量为62.4万吨，环比增加0.97%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为61.6万吨，环比减少1.44%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为35.8%，环比增加0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-10-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2300至2360区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期缺乏指引影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2460，基差139，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主 ...

每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.69%，环比减少0.07个百分点；电石法企业产量31.772万吨，环比减少9.92%,乙烯法企业产量 14.966万吨，环比减少0.78%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.59%，环比增加.38个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率为 33.26%，环比增加7.39个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40%，环比增加.17个百分点， 低于历史平均水平；下游 ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 每日观点 铝: 利空： 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20960，基差-5，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌2749吨至 122028吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-22投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8492，基差198，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8500附近区间震荡 每日观点 1.基 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view is that the previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillate and rebound, with increased trading volume and both long and short positions increasing, more so for the long positions. The market may oscillate and weaken in the short term. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising in the weak area, the trend indicator is falling, the long - side strength is rising, the short - side strength is falling, and the dominance of the short - side is narrowing. It is recommended that Shanghai Zinc ZN2512 will oscillate and weaken [17]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1150700 tons, consumption was 1171700 tons, with a supply shortage of 21000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9088500 tons, consumption was 9369800 tons, with a supply shortage of 281300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1069600 tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8445700 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The basis is +10 with a spot price of 21980, which is neutral [2]. - On October 21, LME zinc inventory decreased by 50 tons to 37275 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 151 tons to 66268 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc oscillated and rebounded, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing down, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Quotes - On October 21, for zinc futures, different delivery months had various price movements. For example, for the 2511 contract, the previous settlement was 21880, the opening price was 21895, the high was 22035, the low was 21870, the closing price was 21965, the settlement reference price was 21955, with an increase of 85 and 75 respectively, trading volume of 54001 lots, and turnover of 592882.08. There were also details for other contracts like 2512, 2601, etc. [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On October 21, in the domestic spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17120 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in Aoshi was 21980 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 3961 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in Tiantian was 4360 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22490 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27270 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20500 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin 8 Xiaocun was 7790 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From October 9 to October 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 13.62 million tons to 16.29 million tons. Compared with October 13, it increased by 0.94 million tons, and compared with October 16, it increased by 0.73 million tons [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On October 21, the total zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange were 66268 tons, a decrease of 151 tons. In Shanghai, the total was 0 tons; in Guangdong, it was 37874 tons; in Jiangsu, it was 422 tons; in Zhejiang, it was 0 tons; and in Tianjin, it was 27972 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 21, the LME zinc inventory was 37275 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous day. The registered warrants were 24425 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 12850 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 34.47% [7]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On October 21, in major domestic cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, etc., all increased by 50 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 16820 to 17120 yuan/ton [8]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 21, for 0 zinc ingots with a purity of ≥99.995%, the prices of different brands such as Hunan Zhuzhou Juzhuan (Torch), Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry (Huzinc), etc., all increased by 70 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 21640 to 22640 yuan/ton [11]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 5068000 tons, the actual production was 4999000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%, a year - on - year increase of 16.13%, and a 1.35% shortfall compared to the plan. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production for October was 5096000 tons [13]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 21, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions such as FFF 3BF, Huludao, etc., showed different price ranges and changes. The import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 95 - 115 dollars/dry ton, with an average of 105 dollars/dry ton [15]. 11. SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2512 contract on October 21, in terms of trading volume, the top three were Guotai Junan with 35970 lots (an increase of 22065 lots), CITIC Futures with 30173 lots (a decrease of 2000 lots), and Dongzheng Futures with 21961 lots (an increase of 788 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 16101 lots (an increase of 1533 lots), Guoxin Futures with 7628 lots (an increase of 59 lots), and Dongzheng Futures with 6652 lots (an increase of 1099 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 21346 lots (an increase of 412 lots), Qiankun Futures with 10707 lots (a decrease of 623 lots), and Guotai Junan with 9335 lots (an increase of 471 lots) [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-22） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：焦钢企业目前存在不同程度限产，亏损边缘的焦钢企业博弈加剧，市场情绪略有降温，但考 虑焦企近期出货较好，开工较稳下采购积极性仍存，短期刚需采购仍能给予焦煤底部支撑，预计短期焦 煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：部分煤矿因查超产有停、减产情况，同时产地安全检查影响，焦煤市场供应持续趋紧，对 焦煤价格有较强支撑。目前下游焦企对部分高价资源较为抵触，采购偏谨慎，部分煤种成交价格有所回 落，而在下游刚需采购下，部分优质煤种成交价格继续上涨，竞拍市场涨跌互现，整体煤矿报价多呈现 稳中上涨运行；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1300，基差123；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 多空因素 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 1、美联储降息预期 2、反内卷政策 3、矿价坚挺，成本线12万有支撑 1、国内产量继续同比大幅上升，需求无新增长点，长期过剩格局不变 2、三元电池装车量同比下降 1、基本面：外盘小幅震荡，20均线压力较大。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿山 挺价，海运费最近有小幅下降。镍铁价格回落，成本线有所下移。不锈钢库存小幅回落，节后再次开始 去库存。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车有所回升，但总体提振有限。中长线过剩格局不变。 偏空 2、基差：现货122500，基差1120，偏多 3、库存：LME库存250476，0，上交所仓单27026，+158，偏空 ...

贵金属早报—— 2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 黄金 1、基本面：资金止盈离场，美元走强，黄金日内跌超5.7%、录得2013年来最大单日 跌幅；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘小幅上涨；美债收益率集体 下跌，10年期美债收益率跌2.49个基点报3.953%；美元指数涨0.35%报98.97，离岸 人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1269；COMEX黄金期货收跌5.07%报4138.5美元/盎司；中 性 2、基差：黄金期货994.06，现货991.03，基差-3.03，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单86565千克，日环比减少1959千克；偏空 ...