聚烯烃早报 2026-1-16 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，12月份，官方12月制造业PMI为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，时隔 8个月重回扩张区间。OPEC+1月4日发表声明， 8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产 量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。近日伊朗政局动荡，引发市场对伊朗原油供应中断的 担忧，推动国际油价反弹。供需端，农膜方面，棚膜需求回落，地膜需求抬头，包装膜企业订单 及开工有所提升。当前LL交割品现货价6930（+80），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差145，升贴水比例2.1%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存38万吨（-4.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年1月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货15650，基差-345 偏空 中性 现货价格 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多减 偏多 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has mixed factors. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, a positive basis, a favorable technical chart, and a bullish position of the main players. Negative factors include the expected high ending inventory by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture for the 2025/26 season. After a rapid rise, the cotton 05 contract is currently in a period of shock adjustment, with a short - term expected range of 14,500 - 15,000 [4]. - There are also some other influencing factors. Bullish factors include the pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises and a reduction in export tariffs to the US. Bearish factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the USDA December report for the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is 2608.1 million tons, consumption is 2582.3 million tons, and ending inventory is 1654.1 million tons. In November, China's textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton in November, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the December 2025/26 report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,972 yuan, with a basis of 1,297 yuan (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture expects an ending inventory of 8.35 million tons for the 2025/26 season in December, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Player's Position**: The net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: After a rapid rise, the cotton 05 contract is in a shock adjustment period, with a short - term expected range of 14,500 - 15,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, production in China is expected to be 751.2 million tons, India 511.7 million tons, Vietnam 408.2 million tons, etc. Consumption, imports, and ending inventory data for different countries are also provided. For example, China's consumption is expected to be 849.1 million tons, imports 117.6 million tons, and ending inventory 776.5 million tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton area is 3041.385 million hectares, with a yield of 835.13 million tons, consumption of 971.442 million tons, and ending inventory of 1622.785 million tons [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/26 season, production is 727.8 million tons, imports are 110 million tons, consumption is 810 million tons, and ending inventory is 1011.6 million tons [15]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, Trump denied dismissing Powell and the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals, causing metal prices to stop rising and gold prices to fluctuate at a high level. Geopolitical tensions and a cooling risk appetite also contributed to the price volatility. The upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited due to factors like recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [4]. - For silver, the Trump administration's decision on tariffs led to silver prices stopping their rise and experiencing significant high - level fluctuations. The downward pressure on silver prices increased as domestic sentiment cooled rapidly, and there were geopolitical concerns along with a cooling risk appetite [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.33% to $4,620.50 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 4.53 basis points to 4.171%, the US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.35, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9631. The gold futures basis was - 2.98, indicating the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 100,152 kilograms [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 0.90% to $92.21 per ounce. The silver futures basis was - 15, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,703 kilograms to 638,399 kilograms [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to the intensive speeches of Fed members, the US January NAHB housing market index, the opening of the 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference, Germany's December CPI final value, European Central Bank Governing Council member Escriva's speech, the US December industrial production, the welcome speech by Boston Fed President Collins at the 2026 New England Economic Forum, Fed Governor Bowman's talk on economic prospects and monetary policy, and the keynote speech by Fed Vice - Chair Philip Jefferson at the US Economic Research Institute meeting [4][14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - Gold: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation since Trump took office, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, along with liquidity concerns, have a limited upward impact on gold prices. There are also factors such as global turmoil, South American geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns that are positive for gold prices, while factors like potential Trump new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant Bank of Japan interest rate hikes, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Positive factors include global turmoil, South American geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, tariff support for non - ferrous metals, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include significant Fed internal differences, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, optimistic Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, and Bloomberg commodity index adjustments [12][13]. 3.4. Position Data - Gold: The net long position of the main players increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.83% to 186,651 on January 15 compared to January 14, the short positions decreased by 2.04% to 47,740, and the net position decreased by 1.76% to 138,911. The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly [30][34][38]. - Silver: The net long position of the main players decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.46% to 369,580 on January 15 compared to January 14, the short positions increased by 3.30% to 305,332, and the net position decreased by 6.43% to 64,248. The silver ETF position decreased slightly, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [32][36][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures oscillate and rise, closing with a positive line, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with the short positions increasing more significantly. Overall, it was a volume - driven upward movement. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the strong zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the long - position dominance expanding. The Shanghai zinc ZN2603 is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The spot price was 25,420, and the basis was +330, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - On January 15, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 25 tons to 106,700 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 548 tons to 33,810 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, the Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, a bullish sign [2]. - The main positions were net long, and the long positions increased, which is bullish [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on January 15 - For different delivery months (from 2601 to 2612), there were various price movements, including opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, and settlement reference prices. The trading volume, turnover, and open interest also varied. For example, the 2603 contract had a trading volume of 502,358 lots and a turnover of 62,860,449,300 yuan [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on January 15 - The spot TC for zinc concentrate was 1,300 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC for imported zinc concentrate was 50 US dollars/dry ton, with no change. The prices of 0 zinc in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Tianjin all increased, with increases ranging from 780 to 850 yuan/ton [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Main National Markets (January 5, 2025 - January 15, 2026) - The total inventory on January 15 was 1.065 million tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons compared to January 8 and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to January 12. Inventories in different regions such as Dongri, Guangdong, and Tianjin also changed to varying degrees [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on January 15 - The total zinc warrants on January 15 were 33,810 tons, an increase of 548 tons. Warrants in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Tianjin had different changes. For example, in Guangdong, the total warrants decreased by 175 tons, while in Tianjin, they increased by 723 tons [7]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on January 15 - The previous day's inventory was 106,725 tons, with 600 tons received and 625 tons delivered. The current inventory was 106,700 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The registered warrants were 98,125 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 8,575 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 8.04% [8]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on January 15 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming all increased by 630 yuan/ton [10]. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on January 15 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry all increased by 840 yuan/ton [13]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on January 15 - The processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 1,100 to 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 50 US dollars/ton [18]. 10. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on January 15 - In terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 151,423 lots, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 96,162 lots, and another unnamed futures company (on behalf of clients) with 58,719 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had 20,278 lots, and in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had 17,894 lots [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年1月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘回调之后反弹，继续保持高位运行。短期现货货源偏紧。产业链上，镍矿价格小幅上 涨，矿山看涨意愿强。镍铁价格大幅上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落。精炼镍库存持续高位，过 剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货150050，基差3300，偏多 3、库存：LME库存285282，+624，上交所仓单41972，+1700，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多增，偏多 6、结论：沪镍2602：短线波动较大，日内交易。 不锈钢 每日观点 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 | 期货 | 1-15 | | 1-14 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is in a state of shock and consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply of domestic oils and fats is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently centers around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8364, with a basis of 426, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of soybean oil's main contract have decreased. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Expectations**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the subsequent supply pressure will decrease. The assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8580, with a basis of - 2, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The assessment is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. This is a bearish factor [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [3]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of palm oil's main contract have increased. This is a bearish factor [3]. - **Expectations**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease. The assessment is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9806, with a basis of 978, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [4]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of rapeseed oil's main contract have increased. This is a bearish factor [4]. - **Expectations**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido factors**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Bearish factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints - For螺纹, the overall view is to treat it with a volatile and bearish mindset due to factors such as lackluster demand, a low - rising inventory, weak purchasing willingness of traders, and the real - estate industry in a downward cycle. However, there are also some positive factors like low production, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [2][3]. - For热卷, considering the weakening supply and demand, reduced inventory, blocked exports, and the impact of domestic capacity - reduction plans, it is also recommended to take a volatile and bearish approach. There are positive factors such as fair demand, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [7][9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Fundamental Analysis - **螺纹**: Demand is poor, inventory is rising from a low level, and the real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, which is bearish. But low production and spot premium are positive factors [2][3]. - **热卷**: Supply and demand are both weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, but domestic policies may play a role, with an overall neutral assessment [7]. b) Basis Analysis - **螺纹**: The spot price is 3300, and the basis is 138, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The spot price is 3290, and the basis is - 16, which is neutral [7]. c) Inventory Analysis - **螺纹**: The inventory in 35 major cities is 295.41 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The inventory in 33 major cities is 285.8 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [7]. d) Market Analysis - **螺纹**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [7]. e) Main Position Analysis - **螺纹**: The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **热卷**: The net position of the main contract is long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [7]. f) Price - related Analysis The report also presents various price - related data, including螺纹and热卷spot prices, prices in Southeast Asian export markets,唐山steel billet prices, and domestic scrap steel comprehensive prices [11][14][17]. g) Production - related Analysis It shows data on高炉开工 rate,螺纹short - process electric furnace开工率,螺纹and热卷weekly production, etc [31][34][37]. h) Profit - related Analysis Profit data such as螺纹and热卷disk profit,高炉estimated profit, and建筑用钢electric furnace estimated profit are provided [43][46][48]. i) Consumption - related Analysis Data on螺纹and热卷apparent consumption, inventory - to - consumption ratio, and building material trading volume are presented [67][72][75]. j) Industry - related Analysis It includes data on real - estate development investment, sales area, housing new construction, construction, and completion area, manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, and cement prices [78][80][82].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年1月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 6、预期：白糖主力05关注5300附近压力。目前正值新糖上市高峰，市场处于消费淡季，短期 5200-5300区间震荡，夹板思路操作。 2、基差：柳州现货5380，基差100（05合约），升水期货；中性。 3、库存：截至10月底25/26榨季工业库存79.14万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 利多：26/27年度巴西糖产量可能下降。糖浆关税增加。 美国可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格跌至14.5美分/磅附近，进口利润窗口打开，进 口冲击加大。 • 重要提示： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿在保安全的前提下适量生产，库存不高。近日炼焦煤市场情绪有所升温，下游询货要 货积极性上升，复产的下游企业对部分焦煤适当增加了采购量，加之贸易商抄底情绪显现，部分矿点接 入大量新订单，矿方出货压力减小，线上竞拍中低位煤价继续补涨，整体成交价格重心上移；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1230，基差42.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多增；偏多 6、预期：随着原料端炼焦煤价格企稳反弹，焦化企业开工积极性不减，原料刚需支撑仍在。加之部分 下游焦钢企业库存偏低且需冬储补库，采购行为有所增多，从而对焦煤价格形成一定支撑，预计短期焦 煤价格或暂稳运行。 焦煤 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-16） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨 ...