Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 18, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [4]. - The PP market is also expected to fluctuate today, with geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, improving demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's exports in August were $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7,230 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -15, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is improving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6,850 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -132, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.9%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, the year-on-year demand is still weak [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,230, the price of the 01 contract is 7,245, the basis is -15, the number of warehouse receipts is 12,736, and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,850, the price of the 01 contract is 6,982, the basis is -132, the number of warehouse receipts is 13,706, and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polyethylene have generally increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity and output of polypropylene have also increased, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: There are few maintenance periods for soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,334 yuan/ton, and the basis is -99 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a high level in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.37% to 1,334 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 0.82% to 1,235 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 13.16% to -99 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is -96.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is -92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly production of soda ash is 761,100 tons, including 421,700 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [35]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：市场等待美联储决议，美零售销售继续回升，金价继续走高；美国三大 股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收 益率跌0.58个基点报4.028%；美元指数跌0.73%报96.65，离岸人民币对美元升值报 7.1041；COMEX黄金期货涨0.23%报3727.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货842.08，现货838，基差-4.08，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单53226千克，增加2799千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [8][11]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,840 - 74,520 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources and insufficient willingness to purchase in the power battery sector [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 0.72% week - on - week to 95,442 tons, while the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 0.65% week - on - week to 17,529 tons. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,067 yuan/ton, a 0.40% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 3,280 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 77,345 yuan/ton, a 1.21% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 7,539 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On September 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 330 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 36,213 tons, a 8.26% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 58,279 tons, a 5.56% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 44,020 tons, a 3.06% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory was 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Expectations**: In August 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a 1.75% month - on - month increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a 14.71% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have shown different degrees of increase or remained stable compared to the previous values [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production, production costs, and production volumes have changed to varying degrees. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% month - on - month to 264,720 tons [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production, export volume, and inventory of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials have also changed. For example, the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 0.72% week - on - week to 95,442 tons [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time, and the production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has changed year - by - year [24]. - **Import and Self - sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [24]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has changed over the years [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand of domestic lithium ore have been in a state of imbalance in different months from 2024 to 2025, with demand often exceeding production and import, resulting in a negative balance in many months [26]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production, operating rate, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time [29]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed, and the recycling volume of waste lithium batteries has also been presented [29][33]. 3.6 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been unbalanced in different months from 2024 to 2025. There were shortages in some months and surpluses in others [36]. 3.7 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, and production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have changed over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide has also been presented [39]. 3.8 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand of lithium hydroxide have been unbalanced in different months from 2024 to 2025, with both shortages and surpluses occurring [42]. 3.9 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate have changed over time. The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the carbonation profit of lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, and other related profits have also been presented [45][47][50]. 3.10 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including weekly and monthly inventory by source (downstream, smelter), has changed over time [52]. 3.11 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price of batteries, monthly production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time [56]. - **Inventory and Tender**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the tender volume of energy storage projects have also been presented [58]. 3.12 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, and production of ternary precursors have changed over time [61]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand of ternary precursors have been unbalanced in different months from 2024 to 2025, with both shortages and surpluses occurring [64]. 3.13 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, capacity, and production of ternary materials have changed over time. The import and export volume and inventory of ternary materials have also been presented [67][69]. 3.14 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time. The export volume and inventory of iron phosphate lithium have also been presented [71][74]. 3.15 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles have also been presented [79][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has weakened. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8780 - 9050 yuan/ton [6][8] - For polysilicon, the short - term supply scheduling will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium - term. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 52675 - 54665 yuan/ton [10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish [6] - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3237 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was 185 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [8] Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The September production schedule is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10] - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and inventory decreased by 1.78%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The September production schedule is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. Battery cell and component production also show different trends of change [10] - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,380 yuan/ton [10] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1170 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level in the same period of history. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [10] 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. Spot prices of different grades of silicon also increased slightly [17] - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased [17] - Production: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased by 4.66% [17] Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [19] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of silicon wafers decreased by 1.78%, and the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells decreased by 40.85% [19] - Production: The weekly output of silicon wafers increased by 5.74%, and the monthly output of photovoltaic cells increased by 0.14% [19] 3. Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through multiple charts [21][27][28][36] - Polysilicon: The disk price trend, price - basis trend, and inventory trend are presented through multiple charts [24][25][65] 4. Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the changes in production, import, export, consumption, and balance [38][41] - Polysilicon: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the changes in supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [67] 5. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the profit - cost trend and weekly output trend are presented through charts [45] - Other products: The price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are presented through charts [47][48] Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The price trends of waste aluminum recycling, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap imports, and the import cost - profit trend of ADC12 are presented through charts [55] - Inventory and production: The monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly opening rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory trend of aluminum alloy ingots are presented through charts [58] - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels are presented through charts [59] Polysilicon - Cost and price: The cost and price trends of polysilicon are presented through charts [65] - Inventory: The total inventory trend of polysilicon is presented through charts [65] - Silicon wafers: The relevant trends of silicon wafers are presented through charts, but specific content is not detailed in the text [70]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2480 and 2540. It is currently in a short - term shock - strong pattern influenced by the uncertain final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The short - term trend is affected by news, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2480 - 2540 range. The fundamentals are neutral due to rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations and technical consolidation. The basis is bullish as the spot price is 2580 with a basis of 62, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is bullish as it decreased by 28% week - on - week to 1.8 tons and 25% year - on - year. The price is bearish as it is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is down. The main position is bearish as the main short positions decreased and funds flowed out [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 8th to 16th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2580 - 2620, and the trading volume was relatively small. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was relatively stable during this period, while the futures price fluctuated and declined, resulting in a slight expansion of the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed was at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - Not explicitly summarized in the given content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a short - term shock - strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the development of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The soybean market in the US is affected by weather uncertainties in the production areas, South American soybean harvest, and China's import volume. The domestic soybean and bean meal markets are influenced by factors such as import volume, domestic demand, and production expectations. The short - term trend of domestic bean meal is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, and the soybean and bean meal futures are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No content provided on this part 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data from the US agricultural report and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic bean meal market is in a short - term volatile and relatively strong pattern, affected by factors such as the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August, the price correction of rapeseed meal, and the uncertain weather in the US soybean production areas. It awaits further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production areas. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in September, South American soybean harvest, and overall good planting weather for US soybeans [13] Soybean - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14] 4. Fundamental Data - The daily trading data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from September 8 to September 16 show that the trading volume of bean meal fluctuates, and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuates slightly. The futures and spot prices of soybeans and bean meal from September 8 to September 16 show that the futures prices of soybeans and bean meal fluctuate, and the spot prices of soybeans remain stable while the spot prices of bean meal decline slightly. The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in soybean supply and demand from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [15][17][32] 5. Position Data - No content provided on this part Bean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Bean Meal - Fundamental situation: US soybeans oscillate and rebound, while domestic bean meal oscillates and declines. It is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term. - Basis: The spot price in East China is 2950, with a basis of - 91, indicating a discount to futures. - Inventory: The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 113.62 tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. - Main position: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out. - Expectation: The bean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060 [8] Soybean - Fundamental situation: US soybeans oscillate and rebound, while domestic soybeans oscillate and decline. It is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak arrival season of imported soybeans in the short term. - Basis: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 276, indicating a premium to futures. - Inventory: The oil mill's soybean inventory is 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. - Main position: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow in. - Expectation: The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3900 and 4000 [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental aspect of PVC is bearish, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, high overall inventory, and potentially continued weak demand [6][12]. - The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with production likely to increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4930 - 4990 [9]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method has weakened, and the overall cost has declined. The production schedule may face pressure [8]. - There are positive factors such as supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. However, there are also negative factors including a rebound in overall supply pressure, persistently high inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - The fundamental aspect is bearish, the basis shows the spot price at a discount to the futures price, the inventory is high, the market trend is neutral, and the main - position holding is net short with a reduction in short positions [6][12]. - Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. Negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [14]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish [7][11]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,600.05 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 0.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The production schedule may face pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. The ethylene factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [12]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on PVC prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and profits for different regions and production methods, including price changes, month - to - month differences, and inventory changes [17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market 3.4.1 Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend of the PVC basis, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [20]. 3.4.2 Price and Volume Trends - Presents the price, trading volume, and position trends of the PVC futures contract, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages [23]. 3.4.3 Spread Analysis - Analyzes the spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [26]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Analyzes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [29][32][34][36]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply Trends - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method, as well as the overall PVC production and capacity utilization rate [39][41]. 3.5.3 Demand Trends - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, downstream operating rate, and related economic indicators of PVC, including real estate investment, construction area, and social financing scale [43][44][50][53]. 3.5.4 Inventory - Analyzes the inventory status of the exchange, calcium carbide factory, ethylene factory, and social inventory, as well as the in - stock days of production enterprises [55]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [57]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides the supply - demand balance data for PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including export volume, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production volume, and import volume [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand logic of methanol in China is expected to show regional trends this week, with a generally stronger north and weaker south. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate, and the MA2601 contract is expected to trade between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral. The supply in inland production areas is tight due to increased olefin demand, and the downstream in sales areas has pre - holiday stocking demand, but the port's ability to flow goods back to the inland restricts price increases. The port has a strong far - month expectation due to reduced imports, but high inventory restricts the spot market. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has increased, which is also bearish. The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is below the line, which is neutral. The main position is net long with an increase in longs, which is bullish [5] 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic methanol plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production is affected by gas shortages and equipment shutdowns, some acetic acid plants are put into production or have production plans, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol [6] - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market is in the off - season, MTBE operating rates have declined, coal - to - methanol plants have profit margins and are actively selling, and some production area plants have accumulated inventory [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2310 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is - 65. Domestic methanol spot prices in different regions have different trends, with some rising and some falling slightly. International methanol prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia also have certain changes [5][8][9] - **Inventory data**: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 126.73 million tons, an increase of 12.27 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 8.79 million tons to 89.15 million tons [5] - **Operating rate data**: The weighted average national operating rate of methanol plants is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also decreased to varying degrees [8] - **Profit data**: The profits of different methanol production processes vary. Coal - to - methanol has a profit of 335 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol has a loss of 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol has a profit of 513 yuan/ton [22] - **Downstream product data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained stable. The production profits and loads of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO also have different trends [33][36][39][42][47] 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or production reduction, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [58] - **Foreign plants**: Some Iranian methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have low operating rates, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally [59] - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants in the Northwest, East China, and other regions are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Yan'an Energy and Chemical Industry, etc. [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Ukrainian attacks on Russian ports and oil tankers have started to impact supply, and the EU is considering new sanctions against Russia. The API crude oil inventory draw also supports oil prices. In the short term, crude oil prices are expected to be strong. Short - term trading should be bullish in the 498 - 505 range, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily提示 - Fundamental factors: Ukrainian attacks may lead Russia to cut production by about 300,000 barrels per day; OPEC+ will discuss member capacity; EU sanctions are postponed. Overall, it's neutral. The basis shows spot premium, which is bullish. API inventory decreased, EIA inventory increased, and Cushing inventory decreased, which is bullish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. However, WTI and Brent main positions reduced long positions, which is bearish [3]. - Prediction: Short - term oil prices are strong. Short - term trading is bullish in the 498 - 505 range, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3.2 Recent要闻 - Russian oil producers may cut production due to Ukrainian drone attacks. WTI rose nearly 1% and Brent rose 0.8% on the day [5]. - Bond traders are increasing option bets on at least one 50 - basis - point Fed rate cut in the remaining three policy meetings this year [5]. 3.3多空关注 - Bullish factors: Not clearly stated. - Bearish factors: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook; US trade relations with other economies are tense [6]. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts decrease, and trade tariff risks rise. In the long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4基本面数据 - Futures market: Brent crude rose 1.53%, WTI rose 1.93%, SC crude rose 0.84%, and Oman crude fell 0.86% [7]. - Spot market: UK Brent Dtd rose 1.40%, WTI rose 1.93%, Oman crude fell 0.69%, Shengli crude rose 0.25%, and Dubai crude fell 1.11% [9]. - API inventory: As of September 12, it decreased by 3420,000 barrels [3][10]. - EIA inventory: As of September 5, it increased by 3939,000 barrels [3][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - WTI crude: As of September 9, the main long positions decreased [3][17]. - Brent crude: As of September 9, the main long positions decreased [3][18].