交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-02燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：由于近期供应充足而交易情绪平淡，同时含硫0.5%船用燃料油现货价差维持在两周来最阔贴水水平， 亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构保持稳定；据市场人士称，亚洲高硫燃料油市场仍面临压力，主要受到套利船货到港充 足以及新加坡地区高库存的拖累；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油338.47美元/吨，基差为-16元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为425.33美元/吨，基差为40元/ 吨，现货偏平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油11月26日当周库存为2059.9万桶，减少285万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term price of crude oil is mostly affected by geopolitical events. The overnight attack on the Caspian Pipeline in Central Asia and the tense situation between the US and Venezuela support the price. The SC2601 is expected to operate in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see. The market is also waiting for the US envoy's meeting with Russian President Putin to discuss the peace plan [3]. - The short - term negative impacts are exhausted, the geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Suggestion - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Energy Minister believes that OPEC+'s new mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity will help stabilize the market. Trump's remarks on closing Venezuela's airspace increase geopolitical uncertainty. The US - Ukraine talks on the peace proposal and subsequent European leaders' support for Zelensky add to the geopolitical complexity, overall showing a neutral situation [3]. - **Basis**: On December 1, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.41 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $63.86 per barrel. The basis was 38.94 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish sign [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21. The EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21 (expected to increase by 0.055 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory decreased by 6.8 barrels in the week ending November 21 (previous value decreased by 69.8 barrels). As of December 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels, showing a bullish sign [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish sign [3]. - **Main Position**: As of October 14, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts decreased. As of November 25, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased, showing a bearish sign [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US President Trump will hold a meeting at the White House on Monday evening to discuss the next step against Venezuela. The US government is increasing pressure on Venezuela, and there are questions about the legality of US military actions in the region [5]. - Kazakhstan protests against Ukraine's recent attacks on the facilities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. The administrative building and mooring facilities of the consortium were attacked, causing production disruptions [5]. - After the US - Ukraine talks on the peace proposal, European leaders support Zelensky, and the US envoy will meet with Russian President Putin to discuss the peace plan [3][5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions against Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East is easing, institutions have a consistent expectation of crude oil oversupply, and there is a possibility of US - Russia meeting and negotiation [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil increased by $0.79 (1.27%), $0.77 (1.32%), 2.50 yuan (0.55%), and $0.16 (0.25%) respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: Among the spot prices of various types of crude oil, the prices of WTI crude oil increased by $0.77 (1.32%), while the prices of UK Brent Dtd, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by $0.37 (- 0.57%), $0.21 (- 0.32%), $0.15 (- 0.25%), and $0.02 (- 0.03%) respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21. The EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of October 14, the net long positions decreased by 13,318 [3][17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of November 25, the net long positions decreased by 57,430 [3][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are still variables in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and there are rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations recently [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2400 - 2460 range - bound state. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and the future trend is expected to be in a shock pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is decreasing, and the export of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease due to Sino - Canadian trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on global rapeseed production is relatively offset, but geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 21 to December 1, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The trading volume of soybean meal varied, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 [13]. - From November 21 to December 1, the rapeseed meal futures and spot prices fluctuated. The spot price was higher than the futures price, and the premium fluctuated slightly [15]. - From November 20 to December 1, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were mostly 0, with a significant decrease on November 21 [17]. - The import of rapeseed in November has no shipping schedule forecast, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains at zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has dropped slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions of rapeseed meal have increased, but the funds have flowed out [9].

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 豆粕早报 2025-12-02 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3020至3080区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，中国大豆供应充裕市场质疑中国采购美豆数量能否达到预期，美 豆短期偏强震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内 豆粕冲高回落，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘 面反弹高度，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差-19，贴水期货。中性 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.29万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比减少13.89%，去年同期77.86万吨， 同比增加27.52 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-02甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 近期多空分析 利多： 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 4.西北CTO工厂甲醇外采。 利空： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：后期甲醇市场或区域分化显著，整体呈现出南强北弱的格局。内地方面，随着久泰甲醇装置重启，后期烯 烃需求预期缩量，产区供需格局预期转弱，西北甲醇后续上涨动力受限。而销区来看，需求端增量逻辑明确：阳煤烯烃 计划12月初重启，联泓新建烯烃 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likelihood Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [10] - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [10] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Likelihood factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits; negative factors are overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is strong supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [10][11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Calcium carbide method cost weakens, ethylene method cost strengthens, with overall cost weakening. This week, supply pressure increases. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [7] - **Basis**: On December 1st, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 13 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [7] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 322,640 tons, a 2.28% increase month - on - month. Calcium carbide method factory inventory is 249,390 tons, a 3.57% increase; ethylene method factory inventory is 73,250 tons, a 1.87% decrease. Social inventory is 527,900 tons, a 0.22% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises are 5.35 days, a 0.94% increase [7] - **Market Chart**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Main Position**: The main position has a net short position, with short positions decreasing, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: Production scheduling is expected to increase. Overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. It is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4529 - 4577 [7][8] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including prices, spreads, inventories, downstream operating rates, and other data [14] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price [17] - **Price and Volume Trend**: Presents the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract [20] - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the PVC futures main contract, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23] 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][32][34] - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production volume, maintenance volume, etc. of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [37][39] - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the trading volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC [41][43][47] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC [55] - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [57] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Gold: The hawkish remarks of the Bank of Japan have raised concerns about global liquidity tightening, and the gold price has been pulled up by the silver price. The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have made the gold price remain strong. However, the domestic sentiment is cautious as the Shanghai gold premium has converged to around - 5.5 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: The supply shortage trading is hot, and the silver price has continued to rise, hitting a new all - time high. The Shanghai silver premium has expanded to 400 yuan/gram, with strong domestic sentiment. The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks will keep the supply shortage game going, but the actual shortage possibility is limited, so caution is needed when chasing high [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) - Gold: The hawkish remarks of the Bank of Japan led to concerns about global liquidity tightening. The three major US stock indexes and European stock indexes closed down. The US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 7.33 basis points to 4.087%. The US dollar index fell 0.03% to 99.41, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $4265.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The supply shortage trading was hot, and the silver price continued to rise. The three major US stock indexes closed up, and European stock indexes closed slightly up. The US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures rose 2.25% to $58.45 per ounce [5]. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) - Gold: The basis is - 5.78, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of gold futures increased by 450 kilograms to 90873 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis is +1, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 14,820 kilograms to 573,702 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased, which is bullish [5]. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) - 09:00: Fed Chairman Powell's speech - 15:00: The Bank of England releases its financial stability report - Time TBD: The OECD releases the latest economic outlook for its member countries and other major economies - 18:00: Eurozone's preliminary November CPI and October unemployment rate - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US House Financial Services Committee on the supervision of financial regulatory departments - Next day 06:00: RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent attend a hearing [15] 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, the latter two of the three main factors recently (US government shutdown, Fed rate - cut, and Sino - US tariff escalation concerns) have improved significantly, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - Silver: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting the silver price include both bullish and bearish aspects. Bullish factors are global turmoil, shadow Fed's significant influence, geopolitical tensions, tariff concerns, and support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Bearish factors are the rising expectation of the end of rate - cuts, the Fed's internal differences, the less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire talks [13][14]. 5.持仓数据 (Position Data) - Gold: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai gold on December 1, 2025, the long - position volume was 175,148, an increase of 3,960 or 2.31% compared with November 30; the short - position volume was 61,337, an increase of 1,635 or 2.74%; the net position was 113,811, an increase of 2,325 or 2.09% [31]. - Silver: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai silver on December 1, 2025, the long - position volume was 411,585, an increase of 9,241 or 2.30% compared with November 28; the short - position volume was 314,399, an increase of 7,038 or 2.29%; the net position was 97,186, an increase of 2,203 or 2.32% [33]. - ETF: The gold ETF (SPDR) position has increased in a volatile manner. The silver ETF position has increased significantly and is still higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts have increased slightly. The COMEX gold warehouse receipts have continued to decrease but are still at a high level. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts have increased slightly and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts have continued to decrease [39][40][42].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月02日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22650，基差+60；中性。 3、库存：12月1日LME锌库存较上日增加275吨至52025吨，12月1日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少1839至65778吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线之 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with supply - side disruptions, some smelting enterprises reducing production, and relaxed scrap copper policies. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement [2]. - The basis shows a neutral situation with a spot price of 89,150 and a basis of - 130, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - Copper inventory on December 1st increased by 0 to 159,425 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 12,673 tons from the previous week to 97,930 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, showing a bullish trend [2]. - The main positions are net short, changing from long to short, showing a bearish trend [2]. - With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining, such as the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine fermenting, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - The global policy is loose while the trade war is escalating [3]. - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policies, and marginal improvement in PMI [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price of 89,150, basis of - 130 (discount to futures) [2]. - **Inventory**: December 1st inventory increase of 0 to 159,425 tons, SHFE inventory decrease of 12,673 tons to 97,930 tons [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price above 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average upward [2]. - **Main Positions**: Net short, changing from long to short [2]. - **Expectation**: High - level fluctuation of copper prices due to inventory and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: Not mentioned in the report. - **利空**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Logic**: Global policy relaxation and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory decreased by 12,673 tons from the previous week to 97,930 tons on December 1st, and the total inventory increased by 0 to 159,425 tons [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - **Overall Situation**: Slight surplus in 2024 and tight balance in 2025 [19]. - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, China's copper production was 12.06 million tons, imports were 3.73 million tons, exports were 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption was 15.34 million tons, actual consumption was 15.23 million tons, and there was a surplus of 0.11 million tons [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant production is at a high level. The second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has been declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1145 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1176 yuan/ton. The basis is - 31 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2] - **Inventory**: The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 158.74 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2] - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to production reduction and maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly. There are still large production - launch plans this year, and the industry's output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4] 3.3 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1177 | 1145 | - 32 | | Current Value | 1176 | 1145 | - 31 | | Change Rate | - 0.08% | 0.00% | - 3.13% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Market Price**: The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1145 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production process is - 220 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14] - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.08%. The weekly output of soda ash is 69.82 tons, including 38.31 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [17][19] - **Production Capacity Changes**: In 2023, 640 tons of new production capacity were added; in 2024, 180 tons were added; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [20] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.16% [23] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [26] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 158.74 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33] 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Production Capacity (tons) | Output (tons) | Operating Rate | Import (tons) | Export (tons) | Net Import (tons) | Apparent Supply (tons) | Total Demand (tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (tons) | Production Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [34]