大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-3 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6820（+30）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-11，升贴水比例-0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.1万吨（-5.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

1、基本面：前期减产煤矿供应虽在逐步恢复，但也有新增部分煤矿因井下原因减产，整体供应仍维持 偏紧状态。随着焦炭首轮降价全面落地，下游焦企利润压缩，原料采购更趋谨慎，线上竞拍成交多延续 小幅下跌，且流拍情况仍存，部分高价资源陆续下调报价，产地煤矿降价范围扩大。整体看市场观望心 态浓厚，炼焦煤价格支撑稍显不足；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1190，基差973.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：钢厂利润虽有修复，但亏损依旧，仍有继续压降原燃料成本计划，近期按需采购为主。目前 下游企业采购态度偏谨慎，厂里库存都在低位运行，以刚需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运行。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-3 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1160元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1183元/吨，基差为-23元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.74万吨，较前一周减少3.47%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来， ...

沪锌期货早报-2025年12月03日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22850，基差+105；中性。 3、库存：12月2日LME锌库存较上日增加350吨至52375吨，12月2日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少1974至63804吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: On December 2, 2025, the PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved, with the spot basis remaining stable. Some polyester factories replenished their stocks. The PTA supply - demand pattern didn't change significantly. It's expected that the futures will fluctuate with the cost side, and attention should be paid to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. - **MEG**: On December 2, 2025, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward. The market negotiation was average. It's expected that there will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December, and the visible inventory will remain high. The supply - demand pattern has been repaired to a basic balance this month. The market is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term, with the spot basis weakening. Attention should be paid to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: The PTA futures closed higher on December 2, 2025. The spot market negotiation improved, and the basis was stable. Some polyester factories replenished stocks. The supply - demand pattern was stable. The futures followed the cost side to fluctuate [5]. - **MEG**: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward on December 2, 2025. The market negotiation was average. There will be a concentrated arrival of foreign goods in early December, and the inventory will remain high. The supply - demand pattern has been repaired to a basic balance this month [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **PTA**: A 700,000 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China has been under maintenance since November 29, expected to last for 4 weeks [9]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China is planned to stop for maintenance next week, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, consumption, and inventory changes [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, output, import, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - **Price and Spread Data**: It includes the price changes of raw materials such as naphtha and PX, the price and basis changes of PTA and MEG, and the profit data of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester products from December 1 to December 2, 2025 [12]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **PTA**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.78 days on December 2, 2025, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **MEG**: The total inventory in East China was 707,000 tons on December 2, 2025, an increase of 72,000 tons compared to the previous period [6]. 3.6 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - **Upstream**: It includes the historical data of the operating rates of PTA, PX, and ethylene glycol from 2021 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Downstream**: It includes the historical data of the capacity utilization rates of polyester and the operating rates of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 2021 to 2025 [58]. 3.7 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: The PTA processing fee was 150.7 yuan/ton on December 2, 2025, a decrease of 288.78 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [12]. - **MEG**: The profits of MEG production from different raw materials such as naphtha, ethylene, and methanol all decreased on December 2, 2025 [12]. - **Polyester Products**: The profits of polyester fiber short - fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY showed different degrees of change on December 2, 2025 [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for cotton futures is a volatile upward trend. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, with cost support, the peak of inventory has passed, and there are expectations for a consumption recovery. As the 01 contract approaches delivery, trading will shift to the 05 contract. It is advisable to take short - term long positions on price dips [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC 11 - month report, the 2025/2026 cotton production is 25.4 million tons and consumption is 25 million tons. The USDA 11 - month report shows production of 26.145 million tons, consumption of 25.883 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.532 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China's cotton imports in October were 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/2026 forecast in November includes production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - **Expected factors**: The reduction of export tariffs to the US by 10%, the near - completion of domestic new cotton picking, and the end - of - year restocking by downstream enterprises. The short - term negative factors are exhausted. With cost support and the peak of inventory passed, there are expectations for a consumption recovery [6]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,980 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 1225 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/2026 November report is 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short positions are decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish [7]. - **Positive factors**: The purchase price of seed cotton has increased slightly, and commercial inventory is lower year - on - year. The export tariff to the US has been reduced by 10% [8]. - **Negative factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton is about to enter the market, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [9]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, the total global production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.532 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory among different countries [15][16]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, the area is 3041.385 million hectares, yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [18]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, production is 6.6 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.45 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [19]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21700，基差-210，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌8439吨至115277吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 每日观点 铝: 数据来源：Wind 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘回调，回到20均线以下运行。近期部分产能减产，部分货源偏紧。产业链上，镍矿价 格坚挺，海运费持平，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格有止跌迹象，大部 分维稳，小部分仍有回落，成本线重心维稳。不锈钢库存回升，需求表现仍不佳。精炼镍库存持续高位， 过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货119900，基差1850，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253074，-1290，上交所仓单32351，-371，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2601：20均线上下震荡运行，中长线反弹抛空。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费持平，镍铁价格止损大部分维稳，成本线维 稳，不锈钢库存回升。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13275，基差810，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：62514，-484，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、结论：不锈钢2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 01 contract of white sugar is approaching delivery, and trading is advised to shift to the 05 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be limited, with the price mainly showing a low - level sideways consolidation [5][9]. - The overall situation of the white sugar market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Negative factors include increased global white sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new year, low international sugar prices leading to increased import pressure [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, with different estimates. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5560 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 244 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a neutral indicator [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is negative [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is negative [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Positive factors**: Good domestic consumption, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola [7]. - **Negative factors**: Increased global white sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new year, international sugar prices dropping to around 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, increasing import pressure [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **25/26 Season Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons, and Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.4 million tons [9][34]. - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, there are changes in sugarcane planting area, yield, import, consumption, etc. The expected sugar production in 2025/26 is 11.7 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons [36]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [41]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Trump's inauguration has brought extreme global turmoil, shifting inflation expectations to recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, along with liquidity concerns, still provide upward momentum for gold prices, but the momentum is limited [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Due to concerns about tariffs, silver prices are more likely to see an expanded increase. However, the actual shortage may be limited, and investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [12]. Section Summaries 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Due to strong demand for Japanese bond auctions and the stabilization of the cryptocurrency market, liquidity concerns eased, and gold prices fell slightly. COMEX gold futures dropped 0.84% to $4238.70 per ounce. The US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.3. The basis was - 5.21, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 450 kilograms to 90,873 kilograms [4]. - Silver: With the easing of liquidity concerns and the cooling of the supply - shortage game, silver prices fluctuated significantly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.01% to $59.15 per ounce. The basis was + 2, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 20,930 kilograms to 594,632 kilograms [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: Today, focus on the US November ADP employment figures, PMI data from China, the US, and the EU, and speeches by the ECB president and officials. Trump's hint at the Fed chairmanship and other factors have stabilized risk appetite, causing gold prices to fall slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to about - 4.7 yuan per gram, showing cautious sentiment in the domestic market [4]. - Silver: The spot - futures structure of Shanghai silver is gradually being repaired, and the supply - shortage game has cooled. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 420 yuan per gram, indicating strong domestic sentiment. Although there is still upward momentum for silver prices, investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:00: Fed Chair Powell's speech - 15:00: The Bank of England releases its financial stability report - TBD: The OECD releases the latest economic outlook for its member countries and other major economies - 18:00: Eurozone November CPI preliminary value and October unemployment rate - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US House Financial Services Committee on financial regulatory supervision - Next day 06:00: RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent attend a hearing [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position has increased [4]. - Silver: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position has decreased [5]. 5. Position Data - Gold: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.07% to 175,022, the short position decreased by 1.70% to 60,292, and the net long position increased by 0.81% to 114,730 [30]. - Silver: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 4.24% to 394,144, the short position decreased by 3.60% to 303,086, and the net long position decreased by 6.31% to 91,058 [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF: The ETF position has been increasing in a fluctuating manner [34]. - Silver ETF: The ETF position has increased significantly and is still higher than the same period in the past two years [37]. - Gold Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts have increased slightly, while COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level [38][39]. - Silver Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai silver warehouse receipts have increased slightly and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [41].