1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week; the demand side shows that the current demand is lower than the historical average level; the cost side shows that the decline in asphalt processing losses and the increase in the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the rising crude oil, are expected to strengthen the short - term support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3389 - 3433 [8][9][10]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall decline in demand, and the increasing expected recession of the European and American economies. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The rising crude oil is expected to strengthen the short - term support [9]. - **Basis**: On September 16th, the spot price in Shandong was 3520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 109 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; the in - factory inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. The social and in - factory inventories continued to decline, while the port inventory continued to increase [10]. - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts, weekly inventory, weekly production, and weekly construction rate of asphalt [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Construction Rate**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly construction rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [74][75]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: It shows the historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [86][87]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: It shows the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: It shows the historical trends of the construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: It shows the historical trends of the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [101][102][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, in - factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,400 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental: In September, the domestic market enters the peak season for supply and demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. Supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week. Demand is boosted by the approaching school season and long holiday, which also boosts market confidence. The market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the group farms' slaughter rhythm and the secondary fattening market [10]. - Basis: The national average spot price is 12,960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, which is bearish [10]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [10]. - Main position: The main position is net long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [10]. - Expectation: The supply and demand of pigs are increasing recently. The pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,000 - 13,400 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. With the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply and demand of pigs are increasing, and the spot price is in a range - bound pattern [12]. - The recent high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. The spot price of pigs is oscillating weakly due to increased supply, but the decline space is limited due to the gradually increasing demand [12]. - The domestic pig breeding profit remains at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is good in the short term, and the increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of pigs may oscillate strongly before the National Day, and the futures will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: The domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - A table shows the prices of pig futures, pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of external ternary pigs from September 8 to September 16 [14]. - There are also multiple graphs showing the trends of pig basis and spreads, spot prices of different pig specifications, supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet prices, inventory, etc.), slaughter - end prices, slaughter profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - grain ratios, and the historical trends of pig price increases and decreases, as well as the situations of pig storage and release [15][17][23] etc. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a sideways manner in the short term. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period, but the terminal demand is sluggish, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that the glass will mainly move weakly in a sideways manner [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Glass production profit has declined, the industry is at a high level of cold repair, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to historical lows in the same period. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, worse than the same period in previous years, and the real - estate terminal demand is weak [2]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1080 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1237 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 157 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.583 billion weight boxes, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a sideways manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - Bullish Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Bearish Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but the terminal demand is sluggish, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that the glass will mainly move weakly in a sideways manner [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price | Shahe Safety Large Plate Spot Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1207 yuan/ton | 1072 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | | Current Value | 1237 yuan/ton | 1080 yuan/ton | - 157 yuan/ton | | Change Rate | 2.49% | 0.75% | 16.30% | [6] 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1080 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side: Glass production profit has declined [2]. - Supply: The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 225, with a start - up rate of 76.01%. The number of glass production lines in operation is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and rebounded [22][24]. - Demand: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [28]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.583 billion weight boxes, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][42]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Shows the supply - demand balance data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production, consumption, and other indicators [43].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-17燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：油价收盘上涨，乌克兰频繁袭击俄罗斯能源设施以及俄油供应减少的担忧支撑油价，短期高低硫燃油 均有较强上行动力，基本面短期亦有一定助力，低硫供应预期存在小幅紧张，燃油价格偏强运行。FU2601： 2830-2880区间运行，LU2511：3430-3480区间运行 1、基本面：贸贸易消息人士称，虽然秋季炼厂检修季预计将部分收紧亚洲地区低硫燃料油供应，但由于来自苏 伊士以西市场的低硫燃料油调油组分定期流入亚洲，市场在10月前仍将保持相对充足供应；一位新加坡贸易商 表示，高硫燃料油市场从9月到10月变化不大，需求相对稳定，未见显著变化，数据显示，9月15日，新加坡 380CST高硫燃料油现货贴水为1.48美元/吨，较9月12日的1.27美元/吨贴水有所扩大；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ISO predicts a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, with cumulative sales of 10 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 423 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures. As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it. The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear. International raw sugar is currently fluctuating around 16.5 cents. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching its end, and sugar imports have increased significantly. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The ISO forecasts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a sharp reduction from the previous prediction. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, down 3.1% from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, up 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, down 68,500 tons year - on - year. Overall, it is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,970, and the basis is 423 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, which is bullish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: International raw sugar is currently fluctuating around 16.5 cents. The domestic consumption peak season is about to end, and sugar imports have increased significantly. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market. The ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit; Czarnikow predicts a 7.5 - million - ton surplus; Dataro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; StoneX predicts a 3.04 - million - ton surplus after a downward adjustment; Green Pool estimates a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season; and the USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a 11.397 - million - ton surplus [4][8]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data show that as of the end of August, the cumulative production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In July, 740,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. - **Sugar Price and Market Conditions**: The international raw sugar price is currently around 16.5 cents. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 6,000. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-17） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：除事故煤矿暂未复产外，其余煤矿多正常生产。炼焦煤价格延续偏弱态势，焦企多放缓采 购，多数企业仍在观望状态，煤矿目前出货压力不大，虽有库存积累但不足以影响生产，部分煤种有小 幅回落现象。但近日盘面上涨，市场情绪端有所升温，影响部分煤种价格下调后市场成交有所好转，价 格略有反弹；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1150，基差-90.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats, with a major risk point being the El Niño weather [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as the production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,508, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the future [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,516, with a basis of 34, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have changed to short positions [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,250 - 9,650 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the future [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,166, with a basis of 113, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多 Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空 Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产 量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿 美元，同比下降5%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加 15.38%。农村部9月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存822万 吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15300，基差1405（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent supply has returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream equipment and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the price center has fluctuated and declined at a high level. The near - term supply - demand remains tight, and the basis during the delivery period still has some support. However, with the advancement of new device production, the supply - demand in the far - month will turn loose, and the disk performance will be under pressure. Future device changes should be monitored [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. The September goods were negotiated at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4590 - 4635. The mid - October goods were traded at 01 - 60. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 80 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4612, and the 01 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.84 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is decreasing, still showing a bearish signal [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price center fluctuated and declined at a high level. The night - session ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, but the buying interest was limited. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk opened flat and then declined. The overall intention of traders to hold goods was weak, and the afternoon spot basis weakened to a premium of about 80 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In US dollars, the external market price of ethylene glycol corrected downward at a high level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4382, and the 01 contract basis is 110, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 37.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [6]. 3.今日关注 - **Likely positive factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. - **Likely negative factors**: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - **Main logic and risk points**: In the short term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the disk rebounds [9]. 4.基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity has gradually increased. The supply - demand gap has fluctuated, with some months showing a supply surplus and others a supply shortage [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the supply - demand gap has also fluctuated. The port inventory has also shown corresponding changes [12]. Other Data Analysis - **Price**: Multiple price - related charts of PTA, MEG, and PET bottle - chip are provided, including spot prices, production margins, basis, and inter - month spreads, showing the price trends from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21][24][28][31][35][38]. - **Inventory**: Inventory - related charts of PTA, MEG, PET bottle - chip, and polyester products are presented, including factory inventory and port inventory, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][45][46][49]. - **Operating Rate**: Operating - rate - related charts of polyester upstream and downstream industries are provided, including the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, showing the operating rate trends from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. - **Profit**: Profit - related charts of PTA, MEG, and polyester products are provided, including production margins of different production methods, showing the profit trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61][64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the LLDPE and PP markets. For both, the expected trend for the day is an oscillating one. The main influencing factors include geopolitical unrest in the crude - oil market, the approach of the demand peak season, and relatively weak year - on - year demand [4][7]. - The main logic behind the market movements is cost - demand factors and the push from domestic macro - policies [6][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Crude - oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical unrest. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films is picking up. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7230 (+50), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 4, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, year - on - year demand remains weak [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, the official and Caixin PMIs improved. Crude - oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical unrest. The downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (- 0), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 120, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.7%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 575,000 tons (- 8,000), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, year - on - year demand remains weak [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7230 (+50), the price of the 01 contract is 7234 (+2), the basis is - 4 (+48), the warehouse receipt is 12,736 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 545,000 tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 547,000 tons (- 14,000) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6850 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 6970 (+4), the basis is - 120 (- 4), the warehouse receipt is 13,706 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 575,000 tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 295,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption have increased. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].