大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年12月2日 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-450 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The cotton market has a neutral fundamental situation, with a bullish basis, a bearish inventory outlook, a bullish trend on the trading chart, and a bearish bias in the main positions. Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the futures are expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term. The trading focus will shift from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: According to various reports, the 2025/26 cotton production is estimated to be 2540 - 2614.5 million tons, and consumption is 2500 - 2588.3 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were 222.62 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China's cotton imports in October were 9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The rural ministry estimates 2025/26 production at 660 million tons, imports at 140 million tons, consumption at 740 million tons, and ending inventory at 845 million tons [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14936, with a basis of 1211 (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the ending inventory for the 2025/26 period in November to be 845 million tons, which is a bearish factor [5]. - **Trading Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - **Main Positions**: The positions are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectations**: The tariff on exports to the US is reduced by 10%. Domestic new cotton picking is basically over, and downstream enterprises will replenish stocks at the end of the year. Short - term negative factors are exhausted. With cost support and the peak inventory passed, there are expectations for a recovery in later consumption. The futures will fluctuate upward in the short - term, and trading will shift from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is estimated to be 2614.5 million tons, consumption is 2588.3 million tons, and ending inventory is 1653.2 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports [12][13]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, production is 2539.956 million tons, consumption is 2500.778 million tons, and ending inventory is 1622.785 million tons [15]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, production is estimated to be 660 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 845 million tons [16]. 5. Position Data The main positions in cotton futures are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6790（+20）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-13，升贴水比例-0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.1万吨（-5.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：LL ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - December 2, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Report Date: December 2, 2025 Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market in the 2025/26 season is expected to be in a state of supply surplus according to multiple institutions, which is a bearish factor [4][9]. - The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be limited, and the market will mainly move sideways at a low level [5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the available text. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market. For example, ISO expects a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX expects 370 million tons, and Czarnikow raises its forecast to 740 million tons. As of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons with a sales rate of 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and imported 11.55 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5580 yuan/ton, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 247 yuan/ton, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish factor [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - **Expected Trend**: The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be limited, and the market will mainly move sideways at a low level [5][9]. 3. Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided in the available text. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand balance. ISO expects a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX expects 277 million tons, Czarnikow expects 740 million tons, and Covrig Analytics expects 420 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance**: The sugar production in China is expected to increase from 996 million tons in 2024/25 to 1170 million tons in 2025/26. Consumption is expected to be around 1570 million tons, and imports are expected to be 500 million tons [36]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents/pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5086 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in international sugar prices has led to considerable import profits [41]. 5. Position Data No content related to position data is provided in the available text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, the bid - ask was stalemate, and the futures price followed the cost side to fluctuate upward. The supply - demand pattern changed little, and attention should be paid to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. - For MEG, there will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December, and the visible inventory will remain high. The supply - demand pattern has been repaired to a basic balance this month. It is expected that the MEG market will undergo wide - range adjustments in the short term, and attention should be paid to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the price rebounds [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated upward, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis was stalemate, mainly with traders' negotiations. The price negotiation range of the main port goods in December was around 4670 - 4740, and the mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 33 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4705, the 01 contract basis was - 57, and the futures price was at a premium, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared with the previous period, which was a bullish factor [5]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish [5]. - **Main positions**: The net long positions increased, which was bullish [5]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly, and the market negotiation was fair. The intraday futures price first rose and then fell slightly, and the buying sentiment improved. The overseas price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 3897, the 01 contract basis was 15, and the futures price was at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 70.7 tons, an increase of 7.2 tons compared with the previous period, which was a bearish factor [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short positions increased, which was bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish factors**: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA Honggang device stopped at the beginning of the week, and the 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng device is gradually shutting down. The Zhengdaokai of MEG implemented maintenance this week, and the domestic ethylene glycol load continued to decline slightly to below 71%. There is still room for the domestic load to decline [8]. - **Bearish factors**: There will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December for MEG, and the visible inventory will remain high [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity, output, supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand gap showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024, the production capacity increased from 8062 to 8812, and the output also changed accordingly, with an increase from 591 in January to 637 in December [10]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and supply - demand gap of ethylene glycol also showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024, the total supply increased from 209 in January to 237 in December [11]. 3.6 Price - related Charts - There are multiple price - related charts, including PTA and MEG price trends, basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads, which reflect the price changes of PTA, MEG, and related products from 2021 to 2025 [13][23][30]. 3.7 Inventory - related Charts - There are inventory - related charts for PTA, MEG, polyester, and polyester fibers, showing the inventory changes of these products from 2021 to 2025 [40][45]. 3.8 Production - related Charts - There are production - related charts for polyester upstream and downstream, including the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, and polyester, which reflect the production situation from 2021 to 2025 [52][56]. 3.9 Profit - related Charts - There are profit - related charts for PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, showing the profit trends of these products from 2022 to 2025 [58][61][63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded to recent highs, and the comprehensive inventory has declined with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural demand has increased recently, while the industrial demand is mainly based on needs. The opening rates of compound fertilizer and melamine have increased year - on - year. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, combined with inventory de - stocking and increased agricultural storage demand, has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today. [4] - The bullish factors for urea are inventory de - stocking, while the bearish factors are domestic oversupply and continuous new highs in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand. [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are at recent highs, inventory is decreasing, agricultural demand is rising, industrial demand is based on needs, and there is an export price difference. The overall domestic supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+20), with neutral fundamentals. [4] - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, neutral. [4] - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), bearish. [4] - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish. [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish. [4] - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. [4] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region/Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1680 | +20 | | Shandong Spot | 1690 | +20 | | Henan Spot | 1680 | 0 | | FOB China | 2811 | - | | 01 Contract | 1675 | -2 | | UR05 | 1744 | +1 | | UR09 | 1763 | +6 | | Basis (UR2601) | 5 | +22 | | Warehouse Receipt | 7,937 | +350 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory (10,000 tons) | 146.4 | -7.3 | | UR Manufacturer Inventory (10,000 tons) | 136.4 | - | | UR Port Inventory (10,000 tons) | 10 | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2,245.5 | 1,956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4,906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak. With supply stabilizing at a low level, dismal orders from downstream deep - processing factories, and rising glass factory inventories, it is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1053 yuan/ton to 1036 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.61%. The spot price of Shahe Safe large - size glass remained unchanged at 1004 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 49 yuan/ton to - 32 yuan/ton, a change of - 34.69% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1004 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [14]. Fundamentals - Cost Side No specific content on cost - side analysis other than mentioning glass production profit is provided. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [25][27]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 470,820 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly consuming the original glass inventory [5][30]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.362 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.49% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows fluctuations in production, consumption, and net import ratios. For example, in 2024E, production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the net import ratio is - 0.90% [44]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold - repairs have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative factors**: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from glass deep - processing enterprises. Also, the poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry makes traders and processors cautious, mainly focusing on consuming original glass inventory [5].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The nickel price rebounded last week, with producers showing some reluctance to sell and traders remaining cautious. Some production capacities have reduced output, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. The price of nickel ore remains firm, and ocean freight rates are stable. Indonesia's 2026 RKAB quota is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stabilizing, with most remaining flat and a small portion still declining. Stainless steel inventories are rising, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventories are persistently high, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The conclusion is that the Shanghai nickel 2601 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, ocean freight rates are stable, and the price of nickel iron has stopped falling, with most remaining flat. The cost line is stable, and stainless steel inventories are rising. The conclusion is that the stainless steel 2601 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices**: From November 28 to December 1, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose from 117,010 to 117,850, an increase of 840; the London nickel futures rose from 14,820 to 14,875, an increase of 55; the stainless steel futures main contract rose from 12,355 to 12,445, an increase of 90. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel rose from 119,500 to 119,750, an increase of 250; 1 Jinchuan nickel rose from 121,900 to 122,150, an increase of 250; 1 imported nickel rose from 117,550 to 117,750, an increase of 200; nickel beans rose from 119,600 to 119,800, an increase of 200. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel remained flat in major regions [10]. Inventory Changes - **Nickel Inventory**: As of November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,782 tons, with the futures inventory at 33,309 tons, an increase of 987 tons and a decrease of 476 tons respectively. On December 1, the London nickel inventory was 254,364, a decrease of 396 from November 28; the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,722, a decrease of 587; the total inventory was 287,086, a decrease of 983 [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On November 28, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,400 tons, in Foshan was 355,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 669,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. On December 1, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 62,998, a decrease of 121 from November 28 [17][18]. Cost - related - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices**: The price of red clay nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% remained at 29 US dollars per wet ton. Ocean freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) decreased from 883 to 882 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,200 yuan per ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,488 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel is 12,823 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel is 16,272 yuan [24]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price is 119,116 yuan per ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,472, with a basis of 188, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,690, with a basis of 38, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. The supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,145, with a basis of 375, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will likely weaken in the short term. Coking coal faces challenges such as slow production growth, poor new orders, and inventory pressure, while coke has issues like increased production, inventory backlog, and weak downstream demand [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coal mine production is mostly normal, but output growth is slow. Spot trading is average, speculative sentiment has declined, and new orders are poor. Some mines face inventory pressure, and prices are expected to drop further [2] - Basis: The spot price is 1190, with a basis of 97, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week [2] - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it [2] - Main Position: The main net short position in coking coal has decreased [2] - Expectation: Coking enterprises aim to cut raw material coal prices, and currently purchase only for immediate needs. Prices are expected to weaken in the short term [2] Coke - Fundamentals: Due to falling coal prices, coke production has increased, but shipments are blocked, and inventory has accumulated, resulting in a relatively loose supply [6] - Basis: The spot price is 1600, with a basis of 19.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week [6] - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it [6] - Main Position: The main net short position in coke has decreased [6] - Expectation: Although the first - round coke price cut has reduced profit margins, coke production continues to increase due to larger coal price drops. Steel mills still want to lower coke prices, and prices are expected to weaken in the short term [6] Influencing Factors Coking Coal - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4] - Bearish: Slower procurement of raw material coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4] Coke - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rates [8] - Bearish: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially over - drawn restocking demand [8] Price Quotes - Mysteel provided the import coking coal spot price quotes on December 1 at 17:30, including prices for various types of coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports [9] - Mysteel also provided the port metallurgical coke price index on December 1 at 17:30, showing prices and price changes of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports [10] Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18] - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22] - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27] Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40] - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44]