Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for cotton futures is a volatile upward trend. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, with cost support, the peak of inventory has passed, and there are expectations for a consumption recovery. As the 01 contract approaches delivery, trading will shift to the 05 contract. It is advisable to take short - term long positions on price dips [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC 11 - month report, the 2025/2026 cotton production is 25.4 million tons and consumption is 25 million tons. The USDA 11 - month report shows production of 26.145 million tons, consumption of 25.883 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.532 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China's cotton imports in October were 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/2026 forecast in November includes production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - **Expected factors**: The reduction of export tariffs to the US by 10%, the near - completion of domestic new cotton picking, and the end - of - year restocking by downstream enterprises. The short - term negative factors are exhausted. With cost support and the peak of inventory passed, there are expectations for a consumption recovery [6]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,980 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 1225 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/2026 November report is 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short positions are decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish [7]. - **Positive factors**: The purchase price of seed cotton has increased slightly, and commercial inventory is lower year - on - year. The export tariff to the US has been reduced by 10% [8]. - **Negative factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton is about to enter the market, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [9]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, the total global production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.532 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory among different countries [15][16]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, the area is 3041.385 million hectares, yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [18]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, production is 6.6 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.45 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [19]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21700，基差-210，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌8439吨至115277吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 每日观点 铝: 数据来源：Wind 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘回调，回到20均线以下运行。近期部分产能减产，部分货源偏紧。产业链上，镍矿价 格坚挺，海运费持平，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格有止跌迹象，大部 分维稳，小部分仍有回落，成本线重心维稳。不锈钢库存回升，需求表现仍不佳。精炼镍库存持续高位， 过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货119900，基差1850，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253074，-1290，上交所仓单32351，-371，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2601：20均线上下震荡运行，中长线反弹抛空。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费持平，镍铁价格止损大部分维稳，成本线维 稳，不锈钢库存回升。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13275，基差810，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：62514，-484，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、结论：不锈钢2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 01 contract of white sugar is approaching delivery, and trading is advised to shift to the 05 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be limited, with the price mainly showing a low - level sideways consolidation [5][9]. - The overall situation of the white sugar market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Negative factors include increased global white sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new year, low international sugar prices leading to increased import pressure [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, with different estimates. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5560 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 244 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a neutral indicator [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is negative [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is negative [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Positive factors**: Good domestic consumption, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola [7]. - **Negative factors**: Increased global white sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new year, international sugar prices dropping to around 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, increasing import pressure [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **25/26 Season Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons, and Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.4 million tons [9][34]. - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, there are changes in sugarcane planting area, yield, import, consumption, etc. The expected sugar production in 2025/26 is 11.7 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons [36]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [41]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Trump's inauguration has brought extreme global turmoil, shifting inflation expectations to recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, along with liquidity concerns, still provide upward momentum for gold prices, but the momentum is limited [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Due to concerns about tariffs, silver prices are more likely to see an expanded increase. However, the actual shortage may be limited, and investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [12]. Section Summaries 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Due to strong demand for Japanese bond auctions and the stabilization of the cryptocurrency market, liquidity concerns eased, and gold prices fell slightly. COMEX gold futures dropped 0.84% to $4238.70 per ounce. The US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.3. The basis was - 5.21, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 450 kilograms to 90,873 kilograms [4]. - Silver: With the easing of liquidity concerns and the cooling of the supply - shortage game, silver prices fluctuated significantly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.01% to $59.15 per ounce. The basis was + 2, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 20,930 kilograms to 594,632 kilograms [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: Today, focus on the US November ADP employment figures, PMI data from China, the US, and the EU, and speeches by the ECB president and officials. Trump's hint at the Fed chairmanship and other factors have stabilized risk appetite, causing gold prices to fall slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to about - 4.7 yuan per gram, showing cautious sentiment in the domestic market [4]. - Silver: The spot - futures structure of Shanghai silver is gradually being repaired, and the supply - shortage game has cooled. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 420 yuan per gram, indicating strong domestic sentiment. Although there is still upward momentum for silver prices, investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:00: Fed Chair Powell's speech - 15:00: The Bank of England releases its financial stability report - TBD: The OECD releases the latest economic outlook for its member countries and other major economies - 18:00: Eurozone November CPI preliminary value and October unemployment rate - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US House Financial Services Committee on financial regulatory supervision - Next day 06:00: RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent attend a hearing [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position has increased [4]. - Silver: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position has decreased [5]. 5. Position Data - Gold: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.07% to 175,022, the short position decreased by 1.70% to 60,292, and the net long position increased by 0.81% to 114,730 [30]. - Silver: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 4.24% to 394,144, the short position decreased by 3.60% to 303,086, and the net long position decreased by 6.31% to 91,058 [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF: The ETF position has been increasing in a fluctuating manner [34]. - Silver ETF: The ETF position has increased significantly and is still higher than the same period in the past two years [37]. - Gold Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts have increased slightly, while COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level [38][39]. - Silver Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai silver warehouse receipts have increased slightly and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8472, with a basis of 220, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8670, with a basis of 50, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10115, with a basis of 370, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the urea market will experience a volatile trend today. Although there is a recent increase in agricultural demand and inventory reduction is boosting market sentiment, the overall supply in the domestic market still significantly exceeds demand [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates have rebounded to recent highs, while comprehensive inventory has declined, showing an obvious destocking pattern. Agricultural demand has increased recently, and industrial demand is mainly based on needs. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have both increased year-on-year. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports, combined with inventory destocking and increased agricultural storage demand, has boosted market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -7, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, indicating a neutral situation [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. Industrial demand is based on needs, and agricultural demand has increased recently. Inventory destocking has boosted market sentiment. However, the overall oversupply in the domestic market remains obvious, and the UR is expected to trend in a volatile manner today [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Lido**: Inventory destocking [5]. - **Likong**: The domestic market is oversupplied, and daily production continues to reach new highs [5]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - **Main Risk Point**: Changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Region | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract | Futures Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1680 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1687 | 12 | | Shandong Spot | 1680 | -10 | Basis | -7 | -12 | | Henan Spot | 1680 | 0 | UR01 | 1687 | 12 | | FOB China | 2810 | | UR05 | 1752 | 8 | | | | | UR09 | 1768 | 5 | [6] Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The price of the lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93,240 - 97,000 yuan/ton. The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][10][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 23,881 tons, and it is predicted to reach 27,000 tons next month, a 13.06% increase [8][10]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][10]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 93,461 yuan/ton, a 1.67% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,012 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 94,750 yuan/ton, a 0.24% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 4,604 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Other Factors**: On December 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,590 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The smelter inventory decreased by 6.81% to 24,324 tons, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory decreased by 5.51% to 41,984 tons, higher than the historical average; other inventories increased by 3.72% to 49,660 tons, higher than the historical average; the total inventory decreased by 2.07% to 115,968 tons, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, with an increase in short positions [12]. - **Positive Factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers have plans to stop or reduce production, and the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile has decreased on a month - on - month basis [13]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply from the ore/salt - lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [14]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 93,750 yuan/ton to 94,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and processing costs of lithium spodumene and lithium mica have changed to varying degrees. For example, the monthly production of lithium spodumene increased by 5.14% to 348,500 tons, and the daily production cost increased by 1.67% to 93,461 yuan/ton [20]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The production, inventory, and export volume of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and other products have also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.69% to 412,850 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.71% to 104,341 tons [20]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore**: The price, production, and import volume of lithium ore have changed over time. The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production and import volume of lithium spodumene and lithium mica have shown different trends [25][26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The operating rate, production, import volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate have been analyzed. The operating rate and production of different sources of lithium carbonate (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) have changed, and the import volume from different countries has also fluctuated [31][32][38]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide have been studied. The capacity utilization rate and production of lithium hydroxide have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends [40][43]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds, such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate, have been analyzed. Different production methods and raw materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has been monitored. The inventory of lithium carbonate includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, and the overall inventory has changed. The inventory of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends [53][55]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries have been analyzed. The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated, and the production, shipment, and export volume have changed over time [56][57]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, production, import - export volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have been studied. The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the production, import - export volume, and supply - demand balance have also shown different trends [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost - profit, production, import - export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have been analyzed. The price and cost - profit of ternary materials have changed, and the production, import - export volume, and inventory have also fluctuated [67][68][70]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium**: The price, production cost, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have been studied. The price and production cost have changed, and the production, export volume, and inventory have also shown different trends [72][74][75]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have been analyzed. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed, and the sales penetration rate has also shown different trends [79][80][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9040 - 9250 [3][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 56815 - 58595 [7]. - The main logics are capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main positive factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the negative factors are the slow post - holiday demand recovery and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, with no change compared to the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 1190 yuan/ton, a comprehensive开工率 of 74.84% (no change compared to the previous week and higher than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [3]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - **Basis**: On December 1st, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China is 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 550,000 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 179,600 tons, a 1.01% increase; the main port inventory is 129,000 tons, with no change [3]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20 [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [3]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease compared to the previous week. The production schedule for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease compared to the previous month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 195,000 tons, a 4.16% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease compared to the previous month. In November, the battery cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease. The export factory inventory of battery cells last week was 7.63GW, a 36.68% decrease. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The production schedule for December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the component production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease. The expected component production for December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis**: On December 1st, the price of N - type dense material is 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 5355 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a historical low level [7]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20 [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [7]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase or no change compared to the previous day, with the increase ranging from 0.11% - 0.66% [14]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of different types of silicon in East China remain unchanged compared to the previous day [14]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory is 550,000 tons, a 0.36% increase; the weekly sample enterprise inventory is 179,600 tons, a 1.01% increase; the weekly main port inventory is 129,000 tons, with no change [14]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts shows different degrees of change, with the change range from - 23.53% - 90.27% [14]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly production of sample enterprises remains unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate of different regions also remains unchanged [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs and profits of different types of silicon in different regions remain unchanged [14]. 3.4 Polysilicon Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase compared to the previous day, with the increase ranging from 0.97% - 2.73% [16]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remain unchanged compared to the previous day [16]. - **Inventory**: The weekly silicon wafer inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease; the photovoltaic battery export factory weekly inventory is 7.63GW, a 36.68% decrease; the component domestic inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the component European inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.50% decrease [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts shows different degrees of change, with the change range from 19.92% - 29.82% [16]. - **Production**: The weekly silicon wafer production is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase; the photovoltaic battery monthly production is 55.61GW, a 6.18% decrease; the component monthly production is 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease [16]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly DMC production is 49,200 tons, a 3.58% increase; the daily capacity utilization rate is 74.84%, with no change [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of Shandong organic silicon DMC remain unchanged [44]. - **Price Trend**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remain unchanged [14]. - **Import and Export and Inventory**: The monthly DMC export and import volumes and inventory show different trends [49]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Supply and Price**: The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots is 132,800 tons, a 9.93% increase; the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 645,000 tons, a 2.42% decrease. The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,500 yuan/ton, a 0.70% increase [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: The immediate profit of imported ADC12 is - 360 yuan/ton, a 26.23% decrease [14]. - **Inventory and Production**: The weekly inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 74,600 tons, a 0.80% decrease. The weekly production and开工率 of primary and recycled aluminum alloys show different trends [52][55]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - **Cost and Price**: The cost and price of polysilicon show different trends [62]. - **Inventory and Production**: The total inventory of SMM polysilicon, monthly production, and开工率 show different trends [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon shows different situations from October 2024 to October 2025 [65]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Photovoltaic Component Trends**: The prices, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic components show different trends [68][71][74]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: The prices, production, and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories show different trends [77]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends**: The cost - profit trends of different components of 210mm double - sided double - glass components show different trends [79]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: The new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and total power generation of photovoltaic grid - connected power generation show different trends [81].

沥青期货早报 2025年12月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 4 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为29.4823%，环比增加 3.056个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.21万吨，环比增加6.74%,样本企业产量为 49.2万吨，环比增加11.56%,样本企业装置检修量预估为86.6万吨，环比减少9.60%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比增加0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改 ...