1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 90,380 - 94,140 yuan/ton. The overall evaluation of the fundamentals, basis, and inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish [10][11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.19%, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November was 25,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88% [8][10]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,341 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.71%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,361 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][10]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 94,255 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.12%, and the production income is - 1,559 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 92,638 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.26%, and the production income is - 2,247 yuan/ton, also showing a loss. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production income is negative, with low production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [9]. - Other Indicators: On December 4th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 300 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The smelter inventory was 24,324 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.81%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 41,984 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.51%, higher than the historical average. The other inventory was 49,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.72%, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 115,968 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.07%, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [10][11]. - Factors Affecting the Market: Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price Changes: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 1.53% to 1,162 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.76% to 2,515 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.37% to 94,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.38% to 91,550 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous period. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 94,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13%. The monthly processing cost was 20,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44%. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate was 95,350 tons, an increase of 3.35% [20]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate was 76%, an increase of 5.56%. The monthly production was 348,500 tons, an increase of 5.14%. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 59.72%, an increase of 12.11%. The monthly production was 412,850 tons, an increase of 4.69% [20]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has shown different trends in different years [28]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium ore have been in a state of dynamic balance, with different balance values in each month [31]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) and the total operating rate have shown fluctuations over time. The production of lithium carbonate has also changed accordingly [34]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years. The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticization) and the total production have also shown different trends [43]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of lithium hydroxide have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [46]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds: The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled materials, and the profit of lithium carbonate import, purification, and causticization have all shown different trends over time [49][50][54]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other sectors have changed, with the overall inventory showing a week - on - week decrease of 2.07% [11][56]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventories of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelting sectors have also changed [56]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, Production, and Shipment: The price of batteries, the monthly production of battery cells, the monthly loading volume of power batteries, the monthly shipment volume of power cells, and the export volume of lithium batteries have all shown different trends over time [60]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of ternary precursors, the cost and profit of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer), the processing fee, the capacity utilization rate, the capacity, and the monthly production have all changed [65]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of ternary precursors have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [68]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of ternary materials, the cost - profit trend, the weekly operating rate, the capacity, the production, the processing fee, the export volume, the import volume, and the weekly inventory have all changed [71][73]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, the cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium, the capacity, the monthly operating rate, the monthly production, and the weekly inventory have all changed [75][78][80]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, dealer inventory warning index, and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles have all changed over time [83][84][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase in the short - term as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support has strengthened in the short - term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2926 - 2978 [7]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.4823%, a month - on - month increase of 3.056 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 262100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74%, and the sample enterprises' output is 492000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.56%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprises' devices is 866000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.60%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, the same as last month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 10.5658%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 33.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 496.91 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1102.9986 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The processing loss of asphalt has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [7]. - **Basis**: On December 4th, the spot price in Shandong is 2940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 23 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%. The in - factory inventory is 588000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 570000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.75%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - factory inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing. It is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes below the MA20. It is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: There are charts showing the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: There are charts showing the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Cracking Spread**: There are charts showing the cracking spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: There are charts showing the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - There is a chart showing the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: There is a chart showing the asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: There is a chart showing the coking - asphalt profit spread trend from 2020 to 2025 [43]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: There is a chart showing the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: There is a chart showing the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [48]. - **Output**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [51]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: There is a chart showing the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend from 2018 to 2025 [56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: There is a chart showing the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [58]. - **Operating Rate**: There is a chart showing the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: There is a chart showing the estimated maintenance loss volume trend from 2018 to 2025 [64]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: There are charts showing the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [67][68]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [71]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: There is a chart showing the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [74]. - **Import and Export Situation** - There are charts showing the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 to 2025 [77]. - There is a chart showing the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [80]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: There is a chart showing the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: There is a chart showing the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [86]. - **Downstream Demand** - There are charts showing the highway construction transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [89][90]. - There are charts showing the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume, and the roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [93][95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - There is a chart showing the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [98]. - There are charts showing the construction asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [101]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: There are charts showing the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [104][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: There is a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply of domestic edible oils is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - reducing season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,394, with a basis of 140, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main positions**: The long positions of soybean oil's main contract are increasing. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but it will enter the production - increasing season, so the palm oil supply will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,700, with a basis of 34, indicating a neutral situation. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main positions**: The short positions of palm oil's main contract are decreasing. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two, entering the production - increasing season with an increase in palm oil supply. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,045, with a basis of 427, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main positions**: The long positions of rapeseed oil's main contract are increasing. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800. [4] Recent利多and利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is the palm oil tremor season. [5] - **利空**: Edible oil prices are at a historically high level, domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - **Main logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月5日 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.61%，环比增加.420个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.09%，环比减少0.20个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为38.8%，环比减少1.40个百 分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为73.93%，环比增加.860个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下 游糊树脂开工率为78.03%，环比持平.高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC出口价格价格占优； 当前需求或持续低迷。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-880.71元/吨，亏损环比增加3.80%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为- 1、基本面: 偏空。 464.69元/吨，亏损环比减少9.00%，低于历史平均水平；双吨价差为1860.95元/吨，利润环比减少 2.00%，低于历史平均水平，排产或将承压。 2、基差: 12月04日，华东SG-5价为4510元/吨，01合约基差为10元/吨，现货升水期货。 中性。 3、库存: 厂内库存为32.264万吨，环比增加2.28%，电石法厂库为24.939万吨，环比增加3.57%， ...

不锈钢 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘20均线上方小幅震荡运行。近期部分产能减产，部分货源偏紧。产业链上，镍矿价格 坚挺，海运费持平，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格有止跌迹象，大部分 维稳，小部分仍有回落，成本线重心维稳。不锈钢库存回升，需求表现仍不佳。精炼镍库存持续高位， 过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货120400，基差2640，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253116，+126，上交所仓单35096，+2501，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining, the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia is fermenting, and copper prices have reached a new historical high, mainly operating strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy. November China Manufacturing PMI is 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range but with marginal improvement; neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 91130, basis is 150, at a premium to futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On December 4, copper inventory increased by 675 to 162825 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 12673 tons from last week to 97930 tons; neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances remain, the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia is fermenting, copper prices reach a new high, and the market is mainly operating strongly [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Trade - war escalation [3]. Other Information - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - **China Annual Supply - Demand Balance Table**: From 2018 - 2024, data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance are provided, showing different supply - demand situations each year [21]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees have declined [15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-5） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：目前停产减产煤矿复产节奏缓慢，供应释放有限，炼焦煤整体供应仍偏紧。贸易商观望者 居多，煤矿存在一定的出货压力，主流矿点集中线上竞拍，整体成交仍以下跌为主，同时流拍现象不减， 影响市场情绪继续降温，整体看产地煤矿签单多有不畅，近两日多地代表性煤企价格陆续下调，其余部 分矿点短期仍有下调预期；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1190，基差6；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：焦企多处盈亏 ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货22000，基差-60，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌8439吨至115277吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡向上运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, but with cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and propane price increase [4][5]. - For PP, the overall fundamentals are bearish, also with cost support. The market is predicted to be volatile today considering supply - demand situation and propane price [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC + decided to maintain the November production plan, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Propane price increase drives up polyolefin prices. Agricultural film demand is declining, and packaging film is mainly for rigid demand. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6,740 (-80), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is - 36, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 497,000 tons (-4,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with an oversupply situation, propane price increase driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and declining downstream demand [4]. - **Likely and Unlikely Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5]. PP - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro and OPEC + decisions. Propane price increase and low PDH profit drive up polyolefin prices. Plastic weaving seasonal demand is declining, while pipe demand is okay. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,360 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of PP 2601 contract is 1, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, considered neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 565,000 tons (+19,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with an oversupply situation, propane price increase driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and average downstream demand [6]. - **Likely and Unlikely Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 6,740 (-80), the 01 contract price is 6,776 (-32), the basis is - 36 (-48). PE comprehensive factory inventory is 497,000 tons (-4,000), and social inventory is 486,000 tons (+15,000) [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 6,360 (-20), the 01 contract price is 6,359 (-23), the basis is 1 (3). PP comprehensive factory inventory is 565,000 tons (+19,000), and social inventory is 325,000 tons (+17,000) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, and apparent consumption have shown different growth trends. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4,319,500 tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, and apparent consumption have also changed. The import dependence has generally decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4,906,000 tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 尿素早报 2025-12-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，重回近年高位，综合库存有所回落，去库形态 较明显。需求端，农业需求近期有所提升，工业需求按需为主，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比均 有所回升。出口内外价差大，库存去库叠加农储需求提升，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整体仍供过 于求。交割品现货1710（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差22，升贴水比例1.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存146.4万吨（-7.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约 ...