Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2440 - 2500. It has returned to a volatile pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada. The market is waiting for further developments [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season in the short term, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade consultations are still uncertain, causing the market to decline due to news [9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the 2440 - 2500 range. The fundamental situation is neutral, the basis is positive, inventory is positive, the disk is negative, the main position is negative, and the future is expected to be volatile [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains good expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result between China and Canada [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 8th to 16th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2580 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small [13]. - From September 9th to 17th, the price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated, and the spot price was relatively stable. The spot premium slightly expanded [15][18]. - From September 5th to 17th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts first increased and then decreased [17]. - The import volume of rapeseed in September remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory remained low, rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly, and the oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly [23][25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - Not provided

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘下探之后回升。宏观面上本周美国有降息预期。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，印尼突然 查矿引发矿端利多，看后期是否会有实质性的情况。镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线进一步上移。不锈钢库 存继续回落，金九银十去库存良好。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对镍需求 提升有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122800，基差1010，偏多 3、库存：LME库存228468，+2034，上交所仓单26141，-26，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：20均线上下震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-18） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地供应缓慢恢复，不过仍有煤矿尚在停产，焦煤供应略紧。近日成材价格小幅上涨，市 场情绪稍有好转，下游部分焦企因库存低位少量补库，主流大矿竞拍部分煤种在前期下跌后本次成交价 出现10-100元/吨不等的涨幅。整体看在下游刚需支撑下，产地多数矿点出货稳定，煤价仍多稳为主； 中性 2、基差：现货市场价1150，基差-83；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：市场情绪端有所升温，下游采购补库也有所增加，但受限于利润不佳，企业心态依旧维持谨 慎补库态度，目前 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the economic recession expectations in Europe and the United States are strengthening. The supply pressure is expected to decrease in the short - term as refineries reduce production. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support. The asphalt processing loss is decreasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. - The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The social and factory inventories are decreasing, while the port inventory is increasing. - The MA20 of the futures price is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3423 - 3467 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the domestic asphalt total planned production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The refineries reduced production this week, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane opening rates are all at relatively low levels [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [9]. - **Basis**: On September 17, the Shandong spot price was 3520 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. The factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20 [10]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production reduction will reduce supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents the price trends of different asphalt contracts, including the price changes, basis trends, and spreads between different contracts. It also shows the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, as well as their price ratios [17][19][22][25][28][32]. - **Historical Data**: The historical data of asphalt prices, basis, spreads, and other indicators from 2020 - 2025 are presented through various charts, which helps to analyze the market trends and patterns [20][23][26][29][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit**: The asphalt profit and the profit spread between asphalt and coking are analyzed through charts, showing their historical trends [38][41]. - **Supply**: - **Output**: The weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt are presented, including the output of small - sample enterprises and the overall monthly output [44][49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory data of different types, such as social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory, are analyzed, showing their changes over time [10][64][68]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil are presented, which are important raw materials for asphalt production [54]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The asphalt capacity utilization rate and the estimated maintenance loss are analyzed, showing the changes in production capacity and maintenance conditions [59][61]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is analyzed from multiple aspects, including the production of petroleum coke, the apparent consumption of asphalt, the investment in highway construction, the sales of asphalt - related machinery, and the opening rates of different types of asphalt [80][83][86][90][95]. - **Opening Rates**: The opening rates of different types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt, are presented, showing the demand situation in different application scenarios [95][98][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: A monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table is provided, including the monthly production, import, export, and inventory data from January 2024 to September 2025 [106].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.8万吨，环比减少3.70%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库 存为21.9万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为73200 吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为-82元/吨，处于亏损状态，其综合开工率为 3 72.71%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为7.08万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为159元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为633.11元/吨，再生铝开工 率为55.5%，环比增加0.36%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher due to some device news. The spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the basis of the spot slightly strengthened. The supply of PTA is expected to return, and the market supply - demand outlook is weak. The spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG**: The price of ethylene glycol was consolidating at a low level. The short - term supply and demand of ethylene glycol remained tight, and the basis still had some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand in the distant months will turn loose, and the disk will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.前日回顾 There is no specific content about the previous day's review in the report. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA**: The fundamentals were affected by device news. The spot basis was - 92, the factory inventory was 3.84 days (a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period), and the 20 - day moving average was downward. The main position was net short with a decrease in short positions. The supply is expected to return, and the price will follow the cost side [5][6]. - **MEG**: The price was consolidating at a low level. The spot basis was 76, the inventory in East China was 37.24 tons (a decrease of 0.73 tons compared with the previous period), and the 20 - day moving average was downward. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions. The short - term supply and demand was tight, but the long - term supply - demand will turn loose [7][8]. 3.3.今日关注 There is no specific content about what to focus on today in the report. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025. For example, in September 2025, the PTA production capacity was 9172, the production was 626, the total supply was 626, the total demand was 624, and the ending inventory was 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025. For example, in September 2025, the EG production was 58, the total supply was 234, the total demand was 233, and the port inventory change was 2 [13]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester filaments, as well as the processing fees and profits of different production methods. For example, the PTA processing fee was 51.58 yuan/ton, and the naphtha MEG internal - market profit was - 1110.70 yuan/ton [14]. 3.5.影响因素总结 - **L利多**: The average operating load of polyester devices increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start was slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device was shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **利空**: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continued to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere was still cautious. The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the disk rebound [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。 需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1760（-0），基本面整体偏 空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差79，升贴水比例4.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存137.1万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，出口政策未超 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-18 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1080元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1234元/吨，基差为-154元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6158.30万重量箱，较前一周减少2.33%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 黄金 1、基本面：美联储如期降息25个基点，美联储给出的信号鹰鸽参半，金价回落；美 国三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨6.12个基点 报4.089%；美元指数涨0.40%报97.03，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报7.1023；COMEX 黄金期货跌0.82%报3694.60美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注欧央行行长讲话、英央行利率决议和会议纪要、欧央行官员密集 讲话。美联储会议如期降息，但信号未如市场预期鸽派，预期落地，金价回落。沪 金溢价继续收敛至-9元/克。金价情绪有所收敛，等待回落后机会。 2、基差：黄金期货835.08，现货832.55，基差- ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年9月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货15050，基差-830 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线下运行 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，回落做多 多空因素及主要风险点 现货价格 青岛保税区美元报价 库存 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸 ...