Group 1: Sugar Core View - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose due to a 15.07% year-on-year increase in Brazil's sugar production to 340,600 tons in the first half of July and an 18% expected increase in India's new season production to 34.9 million tons. In the domestic market, the Nanning spot price has a premium, but import pressure persists, and the peak consumption season provides limited support [3]. Specific Data - Sugar futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: SR01 at 5636 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly decrease of 1.16%; SR03 at 5609 with a daily increase of 0.25% and a weekly decrease of 1.06%; SR05 at 5574 with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.17%; SR07 at 5571 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.1%; SR09 at 5718 with a daily decrease of 0.26% and a weekly decrease of 2.17%; SR11 at 5657 with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.63%; SB at 16.2 with a daily decrease of 0.92% and a weekly decrease of 1.40%; W at 465 with a daily decrease of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.96% [4]. - Sugar basis data on August 1, 2025: Nanning - SR01 with a basis of 410, a daily increase of 35, and a weekly increase of 66; Nanning - SR03 with a basis of 435, a daily increase of 35, and a weekly increase of 57; Nanning - SR05 with a basis of 460, a daily increase of 41, and a weekly increase of 53; Nanning - SR07 with a basis of 459, a daily increase of 38, and a weekly increase of 42; Nanning - SR09 with a basis of 297, a daily increase of 60, and a weekly increase of 123; Nanning - SR11 with a basis of 377, a daily increase of 32, and a weekly increase of 99 [9]. - Sugar import price data on August 4, 2025: Brazilian import quota - within price at 4466 with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 46; out - of - quota price at 5673 with a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 61; Thai import quota - within price at 4542 with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 22; out - of - quota price at 5772 with a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 28 [12]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts. However, the expectation of tight domestic cotton supply at the end of the year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton in the off - season, and the adjustment of the Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Specific Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: Cotton 01 at 13805 with an increase of 20 (0.15%); Cotton 05 at 13760 with an increase of 30 (0.22%); Cotton 09 at 13675 with an increase of 90 (0.66%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19705 with an increase of 25 (0.13%); Cotton yarn 05 at 0 with a decrease of 19960 (- 100%); Cotton yarn 09 at 19825 with an increase of 85 (0.43%) [15]. - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: Cotton basis at 1675 with no change; Cotton 01 - 05 at 55 with no change; Cotton 05 - 09 at 145 with no change; Cotton 09 - 01 at - 200 with no change; Cotton - yarn spread at 6145 with no change; Domestic - foreign cotton spread at 1709 with a decrease of 35; Domestic - foreign yarn spread at - 536 with an increase of 14 [16]. Group 3: Red Dates Core View - Recently, the weather in the production areas has changed rapidly, and there are still differences in the market's view of the new - season production. Red date prices may fluctuate temporarily. Attention should be paid to the growth of grey dates. With sufficient supply of old dates and no major problems in the future weather in the production areas, red date prices will still face pressure [20]. Group 4: Apples Core View - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. In Shandong, the number of packaged apples is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are almost cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of Qinyang apples are the same as last year, but the prices have recently declined to varying degrees [24]. Specific Data - Apple futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: AP01 at 7744 with a daily increase of 0.77% and a weekly decrease of 1.91%; AP03 at 7725 with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly decrease of 1.1%; AP04 at 7779 with a daily increase of 0.93% and a weekly decrease of 1.03%; AP05 at 7838 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a weekly decrease of 0.87%; AP10 at 7826 with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 2.81%; AP11 at 7642 with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 1.90%; AP12 at 7704 with a daily increase of 0.8% and a weekly decrease of 1.42% [25]. - Apple spot prices on August 4, 2025: Qixia first - and second - grade 80 at 3.8 with no daily or weekly change; Luochuan semi - commercial 70 at 4.5 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6%; Jingning paper - bagged 75 at 5.6 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6.67%; Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 at 2.3 with no daily or weekly change; Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 at 2.8 with no daily or weekly change [25].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The maintenance support and export containerization offset the off - season of agricultural demand. However, policy uncertainty and high inventory suppress the price rebound, and the price will continue to be weakly sorted [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental and Views - **Supply**: In August, the planned maintenance increases, and the production is expected to drop to 5.8 million tons, and the supply pressure will ease month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory and Export**: The port inventory exceeds 500,000 tons, and the export quota promotes continuous containerization, providing support for demand [4]. - **Agricultural Demand**: The use of corn fertilizer is ending, the preparation for wheat fertilizer has not started. Although the start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased, the inventory preparation is cautious [4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The rumor of restrictions on small - package exports has spread, and traders resist high prices. The spot price has dropped by 0.9% this week [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: Multiple inventory data charts are provided, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi urea inventory, etc., showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][9]. - **Futures Market**: Charts of futures main - contract positions, trading volume, warehouse receipt quantity, and effective warehouse receipt forecasts are presented, showing the trends from 2021 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - **Price**: Various price - related charts are included, such as the daily market price of small - particle urea in Henan and Shandong, the price difference between large and small particles, and the seasonal price differences between different contract months [17][19][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts of production costs and profits of different urea production methods (fixed - bed, natural - gas, water - coal - slurry gasification) are provided, as well as the production profit of compound fertilizers in Shandong [28][30][41]. - **Production - related Data**: Data on production - related indicators such as the number of days of pending orders of urea production enterprises, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, and compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate are presented [33][35][39]. - **External Market and Raw Materials**: Charts of FOB prices in the Middle East and China, and the spot price and port inventory of thermal coal are provided [43][44][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July and the downward revision of the previous value have strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. With the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields, the cost of holding gold has decreased. Global central bank gold - buying demand, fiscal and monetary easing expectations, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are all factors driving the return of gold prices to fundamental strength [3]. - **Copper**: The recent decline in copper prices is due to the US adjustment of copper tariff policies. Although the tariff does not cover core upstream products, the high copper inventory in the US COMEX market may affect the price difference between LME and COMEX. The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week [16]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Macro factors have a negative impact on aluminum. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure. Alumina is expected to be weak in the short - term, while cast aluminum alloy has a relatively good fundamental situation, and its futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the traditional off - season. In the short term, attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [61]. - **Nickel and Its Industry Chain**: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index, US copper tariffs, and Sino - US economic and trade talks are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and the downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted. Stainless steel has limited decline due to multiple factors [77]. - **Tin**: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the future [92]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July (73,000 new jobs) and the downward revision of the previous value have increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 89.1%. The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields have reduced the cost of holding gold, while long - term support comes from central bank gold - buying demand and fiscal and monetary easing expectations [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures, including prices, price differences, and long - term trends, are presented [4][12][13]. Copper - **Price Influencing Factors**: The US tariff adjustment on copper products has affected copper prices. Although core upstream products are excluded, the high inventory in the US COMEX market may impact the price relationship between different markets. Downstream demand is expected to weaken [16]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures and spot are provided, including data such as the main contract, continuous contracts, and spot premiums and discounts [17][22][25]. Aluminum and Related Products - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are negative for aluminum. Although domestic demand is in the off - season and social inventory is accumulating, the low absolute inventory provides some support, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [37]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is high and in surplus, and inventory is rising. The warehouse receipt problem may be resolved in August, and prices may be weak in the short - term [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decline in the future, providing strong support for alloy prices. The demand from exchange - listed brands is good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot, as well as price differences between different contracts, are presented [38][42][48]. Zinc - **Price Influencing Factors**: The supply side is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to macro data and supply - side disturbances [61]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures and spot, including price differences between different contracts and spot premiums and discounts, are provided [62][70]. Nickel and Its Industry Chain - **Price Influencing Factors**: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index and US copper tariffs are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted [77]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as prices of related products such as nickel ore, nickel sulfate, and stainless steel, are presented [78][83][91]. Tin - **Price Influencing Factors**: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate [92]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures and spot, as well as prices of related products such as tin concentrate and solder, are provided [93][99][101]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Influencing Factors**: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot, as well as inventory data, are presented [108][111][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Influencing Factors**: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures, as well as prices of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, are provided [119][120][127].

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Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Last week, Zhengzhou sugar prices dropped significantly, erasing the gains of the past month. Due to increased imports, the domestic sugar sales volume in July is expected to decline compared to last year, and the profit from out-of-quota imports still exists but faces shrinkage risks. Without further support for price increases, sugar prices dropped sharply. Overseas, influenced by the expected increase in production in India and Thailand and the increase in Brazil's production in early July, raw sugar prices also trended downward. In the short term, the price decline of SR2509 shows no sign of stopping and may further approach the previous low [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information Domestic Market - The spot price in Nanning is 6050 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it is 5840 - 5960 yuan/ton. In May, China imported 6.42 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 15.07 tons. In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a significant year-on-year increase [3]. International Market - Brazil exported 2.3447 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of July, with a daily average export of 167,500 tons, a 2% increase compared to June last year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data shows that in early July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 49.823 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 14.77%, produced 3.406 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 14.07%, and the sugar - making ratio was 53.68%, compared to 50.11% last year. ISMA predicts that India's sugar production in the 25/26 season will recover to 34.9 million tons due to the increase in planting areas in Maharashtra and Karnataka [9]. Sugar Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads Sugar Futures Weekly Price and Spread - As of August 4, 2025, the closing prices and spreads of various sugar futures contracts are as follows: SR01 is 5620 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR03 is 5595 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR05 is 5570 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR07 is 5571 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR09 is 5733 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR11 is 5653 yuan/ton with 0% change; SB is 16.2 with 0% change; W is 465 with 0% change. The spreads between different contracts are also provided [5]. Sugar Spot Weekly Price and Spread - As of August 1, 2025, the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, Zhanjiang, Rizhao, and Urumqi and their spreads are presented. For example, the price in Nanning is 5990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price in Liuzhou is 5980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price in Kunming is 5810 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [6]. Sugar Weekly Basis - As of August 1, 2025, the basis and its changes between Nanning and Kunming and various sugar futures contracts are given. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 is 410, up 66; the basis of Kunming - SR01 is 260, up 46 [7][10]. Sugar Weekly Import Price Change - As of July 31, 2025, the in - quota and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their weekly changes are provided, along with the price differences between domestic locations and imported sugar [11].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated August 1, 2025 [1] Core Views Bullish Factors - Domestic ferronickel supply has decreased significantly year-on-year, while Indonesia maintains a high level. Tight supply supports prices [3] - Stainless steel inventory has improved marginally, and the rebound in energy costs provides cost support [3] Bearish Factors - Nickel ore prices have declined month-on-month, resulting in weak cost support. Policy disturbances in Indonesia have decreased [3] - Global visible inventory has accumulated significantly to 243,000 tons, highlighting oversupply [3] Trading Advice - Short-term trading should focus on range-bound strategies. Monitor changes in the ore end and demand [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 119,830 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan (-1.47%) from the previous week. Other nickel contracts also showed declines [4] - The LME nickel 3M price is 15,325 US dollars/ton, down 250 US dollars (-3.56%) from the previous week [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The latest price of the main stainless steel contract is 12,805 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (0%) from the previous week [4] Spot Prices - The prices of various nickel products, including Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and electrolytic nickel, have all declined [4] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 40,281 tons, down 57 tons from the previous period. LME nickel inventory is 204,912 tons, up 876 tons [4] - Stainless steel social inventory is 966.2 tons, down 1.2 tons [4] Charts and Data Sources - The report includes various charts showing the trends of nickel and stainless steel prices, supply, and inventory, with data sources from Wind [6][7][8][10][12][14][16][18][20][22][24][26][28][29][30][32][34]

Group 1: Core View - After the Politburo meeting, macro - policies continue to exert force, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [3] Group 2: Factors Affecting the Bond Market Bullish Factors - The Politburo meeting set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy, promoting a decline in social financing costs and supporting the bond market sentiment [3] - After the Politburo meeting, the anti - involution statement was mild, and no unexpected growth - stabilizing policies were introduced. The end of negative news promoted market improvement [3] Bearish Factors - The anti - involution policy on the supply side boosts the inflation expectation of industrial products, short - term suppressing the bond market sentiment and causing the yield to rise [3] - Policy expectations and risk sentiment dominate the market. The bond market has fallen sharply since early July, and the long - term Treasury bond yield is close to 1.75% [3] Group 3: Data Presented Treasury Bond Yields - Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y Treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [4] Funding Rates - Data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rates (1 - day, 7 - day) and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/08 to 2025/04 are shown [4] Treasury Bond Term Spreads - Data on 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [5] Treasury Bond Futures Positions and Trading Volumes - Positions and trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented with different time intervals [7][8] Treasury Bond Futures Basis - Data on the basis of the current - quarter contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented with different time intervals [9][10][11][13] Treasury Bond Futures Inter - period Spreads - Data on the inter - period spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented with different time intervals [15][17][18][19] Treasury Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - Data on TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads are presented with different time intervals [20][21]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Lido Factors**: Low domestic zinc ingot inventory supports prices, and China's apparent zinc consumption shows steady growth with strong demand [3] - **Negative Factors**: Supply growth is accelerating, with new capacity releases and restarts leading to oversupply, and a slight inventory build weakens the fundamental pattern [3] - **Trading Advisory View**: Institutions are bullish on SHFE zinc due to favorable inventory conditions [3] Summary by Directory Processing and End - User Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: Market sentiment index, weekly inventory, weekly production, and net export data are presented seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [5][6] - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: Net import data is provided seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [6] - **Color - Coated Sheet (Strip) and Zinc Oxide**: Net export data is shown seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [8][9][10] - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transactions are presented as cumulative year - on - year and seasonal data from 2015 - 2025 [11][13][15] - **Infrastructure**: Cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in various sectors from 2020 - 2024 are provided [17][18] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume, TC, and raw material inventory days are presented seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [20][22][26] - **Zinc Ingot**: Monthly production, production + import volume, and inventory data in various forms (LME, SHFE, etc.) are shown seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [23][24][27] - **Refined Zinc Enterprises**: Production profit and processing fee data are provided from 2022 - 2024 [23] Futures and Spot Market Review - **Price Trends**: Domestic and international zinc price trends are presented from 2023 - 2025 [29] - **Volume and Open Interest**: Volume and open interest data of SHFE zinc futures are provided from 2023 - 2025 [30] - **Price Relationships**: Relationships between LME zinc price and US dollar index, LME zinc spreads, and zinc ingot basis data are presented [31][33][36]

Core Views - Low inventory and supply contradictions support the bottom, but the easing of tariff disturbances and the seasonal weakening of consumption will cause Shanghai copper to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the rhythm of inventory accumulation [5] - The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped to 72,543 tons, and the recovery of import demand supports the tightness of the spot market [4] - The port inventory of copper concentrate has dropped to 560,900 tons, and the processing fee remains at a low level of -$42.63 per ton, increasing the pressure on smelting plants to cut production [4] - The United States only imposes a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products, exempting raw materials such as cathode copper. The decline in the COMEX premium has dragged down LME copper [4] - The growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down, and air conditioner production has entered the off-season. The end-users' acceptance of high prices is limited, which restricts the consumption elasticity [4] Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of the main Shanghai copper contract is 78,400 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.07%, a position of 167,671 lots, and a trading volume of 80,943 lots [6] - The latest price of international copper is 69,530 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.18%, a position of 4,914 lots, and a trading volume of 4,289 lots [6] - The latest price of LME copper for three months is $9,803 per ton, with a weekly decline of 0.96%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 11,075 lots [6] - The latest price of COMEX copper is $566.95 per pound, with a weekly decline of 1.71%, a position of 104,219 lots, and a trading volume of 25,868 lots [6] Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper is 78,330 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1,120 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.41% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 78,985 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 720 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.9% [10] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Storage is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 620 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.78% [10] - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous is 79,120 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 710 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.89% [12] - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous premium is 110 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 130 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 54.17% [12] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium is 85 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 80 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.48% [12] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Storage premium is 85 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 65 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 43.33% [12] - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous premium is 115 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 60 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 34.29% [12] - The latest price of the LME copper (spot/three months) premium is -$51.71 per ton, with a weekly increase of $16.53 and a weekly decline rate of 24.22% [12] - The latest price of the LME copper (three months/15 months) premium is -$92.25 per ton, with a weekly increase of $10.37 and a weekly decline rate of 10.11% [12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest price of copper import profit and loss is -249.88 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 232.62 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.21% [13] - The latest price of copper concentrate TC is -$42.75 per ton, with a weekly increase of $0.42 and a weekly decline rate of 0.97% [13] - The latest copper-aluminum ratio is 3.7801, with a weekly decline of 0.0635 and a weekly decline rate of 1.65% [13] - The latest refined scrap price difference is 805.43 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 35.31 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 4.2% [13] Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total warehouse receipt of Shanghai copper is 18,083 tons, with a weekly decline of 7,424 tons and a weekly decline rate of 29.11% [17] - The total warehouse receipt of international copper is 3,313 tons, with a weekly decline of 1,354 tons and a weekly decline rate of 29.01% [17] - The inventory of Shanghai copper is 73,423 tons, with a weekly decline of 11,133 tons and a weekly decline rate of 13.17% [17] - The registered warehouse receipt of LME copper is 108,225 tons, with a weekly decline of 4,375 tons and a weekly decline rate of 3.89% [17] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME copper is 19,400 tons, with a weekly increase of 7,150 tons and a weekly increase rate of 58.37% [17] - The inventory of LME copper is 127,625 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,775 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.22% [19] - The registered warehouse receipt of COMEX copper is 109,453 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,404 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.3% [19] - The unregistered warehouse receipt of COMEX copper is 143,978 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,246 tons and a weekly increase rate of 6.08% [19] - The inventory of COMEX copper is 253,431 tons, with a weekly increase of 9,650 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.96% [19] - The port inventory of copper ore is 409,000 tons, with a weekly decline of 48,000 tons and a weekly decline rate of 10.5% [19] - The social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19] Copper Midstream Production (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. The cumulative output was 7.363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [21] - In June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The cumulative output was 11.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [21] Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rods was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.78 percentage points [23] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rods was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 32.01%, a month-on-month increase of 3.08 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.98 percentage points [23] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper strips was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.55 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.22 percentage points [24] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 51.52%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.97 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.37 percentage points [24] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.25%, a month-on-month decrease of 10.35 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.01 percentage points [24] Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.34969 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 14.757457 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 382,709 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The cumulative import volume was 1,646,147 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The cumulative import volume was 1,145,405 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative import volume was 2,630,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [26]

黑色产业链日报 2025/08/01 螺纹钢期货月差（01-05）季节性. source： Wind 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 07/01 09/01 11/01 01/01 -200 0 200 400 热卷期货月差（01-05）季节性. source： Wind 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 07/01 09/01 11/01 01/01 -100 0 100 200 300 | 螺纹、热卷现货价格.. | 螺纹、热卷基差. | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位（元/吨） | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-31 | 单位（元/吨） | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-31 | | 螺纹钢汇总价格：中国 | 3402 | 3407 | 01螺纹基差（上海） | 103 | 109 | . 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z000 ...