季度报告——尿素 如何理解近期尿素需求的高增长？ ★一季度盘面上行的核心驱动在于需求端 近期在高日产背景下尿素工厂库存持续去化，虽然旺季本身有去库 预期，但去库速度还是略超出市场预期，其所映射出来的是高达双 位数的需求增速。需求增速能否延续可能是后续盘面的核心锚点。 ★三维度拆解尿素需求高增长的潜在原因与后续看法 能 源 化 工 关于近期尿素需求增量的潜在来源与后续看法：①耕作模式变化。 近年合理密植、水肥一体、滴灌等耕作技术的推广拉动了单位面积 尿素需求量，后续预计这部分增量将在夏季农需中继续体现。②比 价优势。内外价差高企推动复合肥出口订单持续，与钾肥的比价优 势则增强下游尿素拿货意愿。这部分需求增速在中短期内将继续维 持，但后续若价差收窄/复合肥法检政策变化则存在波动可能。③备 肥节奏。据渠道反馈，节后基层备货积极性持续较好，复合肥成品 走货顺畅，开工持续高位运行。复合肥产量的高增，一方面有补前 期缺口及出口因素，另一方面可能也存在部分夏季订单的提前释放。 后续需注意 6-7 月实际追肥阶段所形成的需求驱动是否会低于预期。 综合来看，尿素在 4 月中下旬-5 月或维持较高需求增速，但 5 月下 旬开始增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Treasury Futures**: Bullish, suggesting active long - position layout [14] - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: Short - term volatility, maintaining a short - term oscillation view [19] - **Gold**: Short - term callback, suggesting reducing positions and waiting for better allocation opportunities [21] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Cautious, suggesting careful control of positions due to ongoing adjustments [24] - **Stock Index Futures**: Suggesting reducing positions and waiting and seeing [27] - **Power Coal**: Stable price, with limited expected fluctuations in the short term [28] - **Iron Ore**: Cautious, suggesting reducing the holding period and avoiding external risks [30] - **Palm Oil**: Bearish in the short term, suggesting a short - selling mindset [34] - **Soybean Oil**: Suggesting attention to the 5 - 9 spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [34] - **Sugar**: Short - term bullish support from spot prices, but potential risks from the trade war [39] - **Cotton**: Short - term bearish, suggesting light - position and cautious operation [44] - **Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil**: Suggesting light - position and using a rebound hedging strategy [47] - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish for domestic futures, bearish for CBOT soybeans, with different impacts on near - and far - month contracts [50] - **Nickel**: Suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides [53] - **Copper**: Short - term pressure, suggesting attention to long - position opportunities after sentiment digestion and focusing on the Shanghai copper inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [57] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggesting holding previous short positions and not chasing short at the current level [59] - **Lead**: Short - term waiting, suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities at low levels in the medium term; holding the internal - external reverse arbitrage [61] - **Zinc**: Short - term waiting, suggesting looking for medium - term rebound short - selling opportunities; temporarily waiting for inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [64] - **Polysilicon**: Suggesting both long - entry at low levels for PS2506 and short - selling at high levels for PS2511; holding the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [67] - **Industrial Silicon**: Suggesting short - selling at high levels after the rebound on the disk and the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage [69] - **Carbon Emissions**: Short - term wide - range oscillation [71] - **Crude Oil**: Expected lower price fluctuation range in the second quarter [74] - **Bottle Chips**: Short - term processing fees in the low - level range [79] - **Caustic Soda**: Limited further downward space for the disk [80] - **Pulp**: Suggesting attention to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the pulp supply chain [81] - **PVC**: Suggesting waiting and seeing due to non - prominent fundamental contradictions [83] - **Soda Ash**: Maintaining a medium - term view of short - selling at high levels [84] - **Float Glass**: Suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities at large pullbacks in the short term [86] - **Container Freight Index**: Short - term waiting, with near - month contracts in a weak - oscillation state [88] 2. Core Views The report focuses on the impact of the US tariff policy and China's counter - measures on various financial and commodity markets. The trade conflict has led to increased market volatility, risk aversion, and concerns about global economic recession. Different markets show different responses based on their own fundamentals and supply - demand relationships. For example, in the financial market, bond markets may rise, while the US dollar index shows short - term oscillations. In the commodity market, most products face price pressure due to the trade war, but some products are also affected by their own supply - demand factors, such as the potential increase in palm oil inventory and the impact of copper's macro - sentiment and inventory structure on its price. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - News: China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods starting from April 10, 2025. The central bank conducted 2234 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 3, with a net investment of 49 billion yuan [12][13] - Comment: The trade conflict may escalate, and the upward trend of the bond market is relatively certain. Long - term bonds may still have downward space after the holiday, and short - term bonds may rise if the monetary policy turns loose [13] - Investment Advice: Actively conduct long - position layout [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: US Treasury Secretary supports the tariff policy and denies that the US will fall into recession. The White House Chief Economic Advisor says the market crash is not Trump's strategy. The EU is ready to counter the US tariff measures [15][16][17] - Comment: White House officials believe the impact of tariffs on the economy is controllable. Short - term tariffs will continue to cause significant market fluctuations, and the US dollar index will maintain an oscillatory trend [18] - Investment Advice: Short - term oscillation of the US dollar [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Fed Chairman Powell says monetary policy needs to remain cautious. The US March non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations. China imposed a 34% tariff on US - originated imported goods [20][21] - Comment: Gold prices fell by more than 2% on Friday. The US tariff policy and OPEC's production increase led to a decline in market risk appetite, and gold was affected by liquidity. The short - term financial market's risk - aversion sentiment persists, but gold's trade - related premium is limited [21] - Investment Advice: Short - term callback, reducing positions and waiting for better allocation opportunities [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: The US March non - farm employment increased by 228,000, higher than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [22] - Comment: The labor market remains resilient, but the market's reaction is muted due to tariff risks. The tariff policy has increased inflation risks, and the Fed may be more cautious. The market is worried about economic downturn [24] - Investment Advice: Cautious control of positions due to ongoing adjustments in the US stock market [24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's offline consumption heat index increased by 14.2% year - on - year in the first quarter. China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods [25][26] - Comment: Trump's tariff policy led to a global stock market crash. The A - share market will also face significant adjustments. In the short term, the fundamentals and risk appetite are unclear [26] - Investment Advice: Reducing positions and waiting and seeing [27] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: Canadian coal shipments in the 13th week of 2025 increased by 6.52% year - on - year [28] - Comment: Short - term steam coal prices will remain stable. The decline in imported coal since March has slightly increased domestic coal demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated. April is the off - season, and the power plant's inventory replenishment cycle has not arrived [28] - Investment Advice: Limited price changes in the short term [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: An Australian mining company plans to produce 2 million tons of iron ore in Madagascar [29] - Comment: The trade conflict has intensified, and the SGX swap price has declined. The black - metal market may be under pressure, especially in the plate - related sectors. The iron ore price may be supported around $90 [29] - Investment Advice: Reducing the holding period and avoiding external risks [30] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil) - News: Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase for the first time in six months in March. CBOT soybean oil fluctuated greatly last week [31][34] - Comment: Market institutions predict that Malaysian palm oil inventory will increase by 3% in March. Domestic palm oil is expected to open lower and maintain a low - level oscillation this week. Soybean oil prices may decline, but the decline of near - month contracts may be greater than that of far - month contracts [33][34] - Investment Advice: Short - selling palm oil in the short term; attention to the 5 - 9 spread reverse arbitrage opportunity for soybean oil [34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Brazilian weather risks may support sugar prices. Brazilian sugarcane production is expected to decline. Guangxi's sugar production in the 24/25 season reached 646.08 million tons as of the end of March [35][36][37] - Comment: Domestic sugar mills' sales progress is fast, and spot prices are firm, providing short - term bullish support for the futures market. However, the trade war may bring risks to the sugar market [38][39] - Investment Advice: The current spot price supports the futures market, but the trade war may pose risks [39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - News: Xinjiang's spring weather is generally favorable for spring sowing. The US cancelled the tax - free treatment of small - value packages from China. The US cotton export in the week of March 21 - 27 increased week - on - week [40][41][42] - Comment: Although the US cotton weekly export volume increased, the next - year's export prospects face challenges due to the trade war. China's cotton textile exports are blocked, and the cotton market is under pressure [43][44] - Investment Advice: Short - term bearish, suggesting light - position and cautious operation [44] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 477,200 tons week - on - week as of April 3. The real - estate market in some hot cities was active in March [45][46] - Comment: Due to the tariff risk, the external market declined. The black - metal market's fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the long - term demand for hot - rolled coils has risks. Steel prices may decline on Monday [46] - Investment Advice: Light - position operation and using a rebound hedging strategy [47] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: Brazil exported 14.68 million tons of soybeans in March. China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods, and the tariff on US soybeans will reach 47% [48][50] - Comment: The tariff on US soybeans will accelerate China's shift to Brazilian soybeans. The new round of Sino - US trade war is bullish for domestic soybean meal futures, especially for far - month contracts. The inventory of domestic soybean meal will increase in the second half of April [50] - Investment Advice: Bullish for domestic soybean meal futures, bearish for CBOT soybeans. The increase in domestic soybean arrivals will pressure the spot and basis of soybean meal [50] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The Shanghai nickel futures inventory decreased by 3669 tons in the week of April 4 [51] - Comment: Trump's tariff policy led to a decline in the nickel price. After the release of risk sentiment, the price may return to the previous level. The nickel ore market is tight, and the nickel - iron market is strong, but there is a risk of oversupply [52] - Investment Advice: Looking for long - entry opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides [53] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: US mining giants are exploring new technologies to extract copper from old mines. Zambia's copper production may increase to nearly 1 million tons in 2025. Southeast Copper's cathode copper production increased by 4.25% year - on - year in the first quarter [54][55][56] - Comment: The US tariff policy and counter - measures have led to concerns about global economic recession, suppressing copper prices. The domestic inventory is weakly destocking, and the inventory change may support copper prices in the future [57] - Investment Advice: Short - term pressure on copper prices, suggesting attention to long - position opportunities after sentiment digestion and focusing on the Shanghai copper inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [57] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Lithium Americas reached a final investment decision on the Thacker Pass lithium mine [58] - Comment: The current fundamentals of lithium prices are bearish. Domestic salt - factory production remains high, demand is weak, and the ore price is falling. The warehouse receipt registration has increased [59] - Investment Advice: Holding previous short positions and not chasing short at the current level [59] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: MMG released its Q4 2024 report, and the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $27.28 per ton on April 2 [60][61] - Comment: The US tariff mainly affects lead - acid battery exports. The lead price decline is due to market risk - aversion and concerns about future exports. The Shanghai lead may open at around 16,800 yuan, and it is recommended to wait for the macro - risk to clear and look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [61] - Investment Advice: Short - term waiting, looking for long - entry opportunities at low levels in the medium term; holding the internal - external reverse arbitrage [61] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $18.13 per ton on April 2. MMG released its Q4 2024 report, and an Australian silver - zinc mine is approaching restart [62][63] - Comment: The US tariff affects zinc through market risk - aversion and concerns about future consumption in related industries. The Shanghai zinc may open at around 22,500 yuan. The demand is in the process of turning from off - season to peak season, but the short - term price may still be under pressure [64] - Investment Advice: Short - term waiting, looking for medium - term rebound short - selling opportunities; temporarily waiting for inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [64] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods. The polysilicon production in April is expected to be about 1 million tons, and the silicon wafer supply will decrease due to the Myanmar earthquake [65] - Comment: The tariff has limited impact on the photovoltaic industry chain. In April, polysilicon may destock slightly, but the spot price may decline after the peak - demand period. The polysilicon warehouse receipt registration will start in April [66] - Investment Advice: Looking for long - entry at low levels for PS2506 and short - selling at high levels for PS2511; holding the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [67] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: Sichuan sample silicon enterprises are gradually resuming production [68] - Comment: Xinjiang's large - scale silicon plants have reduced production, and the southwest region is slowly resuming production. The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon is weak, and the export may decline. The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon is difficult to improve [68] - Investment Advice: Looking for short - selling at high levels after the rebound on the disk and the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage [69] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The EUA main contract closed at €63.82 per ton on April 4, down 3.39% from the previous day and 7.24% week - on - week [70] - Comment: The US tariff policy led to a decline in the European natural gas price and carbon price. The short - term carbon market needs to pay attention to the macro - environment. The EU's emissions decreased by 5% in 2024 [70] - Investment Advice: Short - term wide - range oscillation of the EU carbon price [71] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The US oil rig count increased to 489 as of April 4. OPEC + decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May [72][73] - Comment: The US tariff policy and OPEC +'s production increase led to a significant decline in oil prices. The global trade friction has worsened the oil demand outlook, and the market is worried about OPEC +'s unity and the stability of the production - cut agreement [73] - Investment Advice: The oil price fluctuation range is expected to be lower in the second quarter [74

热点报告——有色金属 美国对等关税落地，金属大跌后何去何从 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 04 月 06 日 [Table_Summary] ★事件概述 4 月 3 日，特朗普政府"对等关税"落地，对所有进口至美国的商 品征收 10%的基础关税，并对主要的贸易伙伴征收更高的关税，如： 中国 34%、欧盟 20%、越南 46%、中国台湾 32%、印度尼西亚 32% 等。受此影响，内盘 4 月 3 日收盘后，LME 基本金属出现较大下跌， 其中：铜-8.61%，镍-7.28%，铝-2.78%，锌-2.55%，铅-1.9%。 ★事件分析及投资建议 有 色 金 属 铜：美国对等关税引发衰退担忧，铜价受到剧烈打压，宏观角度需 要继续观察各国反制政策以及后续货币、财政政策调整情况，未来 衰退担忧逐步减弱可能性更大，我们认为情绪面冲击偏短期。基本 面角度，关税预期对全球铜供需平衡表冲击相对有限，对供给端影 响将逐步被市场关注，原料端潜在收缩风险料将上升，单边趋势上 建议逢低买入操作为主。 铝：基本面上，美国自 2024 年起不断提高钢铝产品关税，2025 年 2 月又对中国铝材加征关税，导致铝材出口美国 ...

伦敦金跌 1.5%至 3038 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4%，通胀预期 降至 2.27%，实际利率降至 1.67%，美元指数跌 0.98%至 103，标普 500 指数大跌 9%，人民币小跌，内外价差窄幅波动。 贵 金 属 国际金价再创新高 3167 美元/盎司后高位回落最终收跌，美国对 等关税落地，幅度超预期引发市场避险情绪骤然提升，美股持续 大跌，OPEC 宣布增产，油价加速下跌，工业品整体面临需求下 降的风险，价格集体下挫，黄金表现好于风险资产但同样受到拖 累转为下跌，多头顺势获利了结降低仓位。关税对黄金的影响体 现为几个方面：首先，黄金在一季度表现强劲，主要是受到特朗 普政府关税政策的带动，对于关税风险已经有一部分定价；第二， 股市和商品大跌，短期从流动性层面会拖累黄金表现；第三，对 等关税中黄金是被豁免的，因此黄金主要发挥避险作用，而非贸 易层面的美国黄金溢价增加，当前海外黄金价差处于正常波动区 间；最后，3 月美国非农就业报告表现尚可，给到货币政策观望 空间，美联储主席鲍威尔表示关税将提升通胀压力，货币政策保 持谨慎态度，没有因为股市下跌而紧急降息，也增加了市场的下 跌压力，美债收益率止 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 全国氧化铝厂陷入大面积亏损， 过剩压力稍有缓和 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 4 | 月 | 6 日 | 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格下调，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 730 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨（较上周下调 10 元）, 贵 州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。矿山资源整合政 策持续深化，部分矿山因资源整合、环保、安全等合规要求暂处 停产状态，在产矿山开工率较春节前略低，短期铝土矿价格仍处 于下行区间。进口方面，大型铝土矿企业长单陆续签订，整体价 格区间集中在 88-95 美元/干吨。零单方面，近段时间市场传出 85-86 美元/干吨的成交。几内亚矿山开采成本多集中于 30-45 美 元/吨，个别高成本矿山开采成本在 50 美元/吨之上，当前 CIF 价格距离矿山成本仍有一定空间。到货方面，期内新到矿石 342.4 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 247.2 万吨， ...

★ 商品期权市场活跃度 本周（2025.3.31-2025.4.3）商品期权市场成交有所上升，日均 成交量为 650.79 万手，日均持仓量为 1148.95 万手，环比变 化分别为 16.10%和 8.59%。分品种来看，本周成交活跃的品 种主要包括玻璃（82 万手）、纯碱（47 万手）、豆粕（44 万手）。此外，本周共有 3 个品种成交增长超过 90%，成交 量增长较为显著的品种为豆一（+98.50%）、锰硅（+98.41%） 以及 LPG（+90.90%）。与此同时，成交量下降较为明显的 品种则有苹果（-99.16%）、对二甲苯（-98.22%）和红枣 （-92.32%）。从持仓量数据来看，本周日均持仓量较高的品 种为豆粕（137 万手）、玻璃（125 万手）和纯碱（95 万手）。 LPG 的日均持仓量环比增长较为迅速，增幅达+59.10%。建 议投资者可重点关注交易活跃品种可能存在的市场机会。 ★ 商品期权主要数据点评 标的涨跌情况：本周商品期权标的涨跌不一，除农产品外大 多 数 品 种 以 下 跌 为 主 。 周 度 涨 幅 较 高 的 品 种 有 豆 粕 （+3.30%）、菜油（+2.84%）、豆 ...

周度报告—碳酸锂 、smingfTable_Title] 智利锂盐发运环比回升， 避险情绪或催化锂价下跌加速 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 碳酸锂：看跌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 4 6 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 有 上周锂盐价格偏弱运行。LC2504 收盘价环比-1.3%至 7.30 万元/ 吨，LC2505 收盘价环比-1.1%至 7.32 万元/吨；SMM 电池级 （99.5%）、工业级（99.2%）碳酸锂现货均价环比-0.3%至 7.39、 7.20 万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比-1.1%至 7.3 万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格略降，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级 氢氧化锂均价环比-0.1%至 6.96、7.47 万元/吨。电工价差环比持 平、为 0.20 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水 环比略收窄至 0.43 万元/吨。 色 金 属 据智利海关，3 月智利共出口碳酸锂及氢氧化锂 2.30 万吨，环比 +37%，同比+8%；其中对中国出口 1.66 万吨，环比+38%，同比 ...

周度报告——股指期货 美国对等关税超预期，A 股仍待回调 | | | [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a对ry]等关税落地，全球股市暴跌 股 指 期 货 本周（03.31-04.04）以美元计价的全球股市暴跌。MSCI 全球指 数跌 7.9%，其中新兴市场（-2.96%）>前沿市场（-4.20%）>发 达市场（-8.49%）。中国股市跌幅 1.26%全球表现最好，南非股 市跌幅 12.55%全球表现最差。中国权益分市场看， A 股>港股> 中概股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 11370 亿元，环比上周（12610 亿元)缩量 1240 亿元。A 股表现出韧性，万得微盘股指数逆势上 涨 1.64%表现最好，创业板指数跌幅 2.95%表现最差。本周 A 股 中信一级行业中共 8 个上涨（上周 5 个），22 个下跌（上周 25 个）。领涨行业为公用事业（+2.53%），领跌行业为新能源 （-3.54%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下行，1Y 下行， 利差缩小。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额 本周增增加 6 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额减少 3 亿份。跟 踪中证 ...

[★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好骤降，股市多数大跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率收于 4%。美元指数跌 0.98%至 103，非美货币多数贬 值，离岸人民币跌 0.34%，欧元涨 1.16%，英镑跌 0.4%，日元张 1.94%，瑞郎涨 2.27%，大宗商品货币下跌，澳元跌 4%，兰特跌 3.8%，新西兰元跌 2.14%，比索、卢比、雷亚尔、林吉特、泰铢 等悉数收跌。金价跌 1.5%至 3038 美元/盎司，VIX 指数跳升至 45，现货商品指数收跌，布油大跌 8.7%至 67.9 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 特朗普政府对等关税细则正式落地，对所有进口国家商品加征 基准 10%关税，并且不同贸易逆差的国家加征不同幅度的更高 级别关税，引发市场强烈波动。国内推出反制措施，欧元区亦 表示要采取反制措施，全球经济面临的下行风险快速提升，股 市直接受到冲击。美国经济数据表现尚可，但未来的预期已经 转为悲观。3 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 从 50.3 回落至 49，低于预期， 非制造业 PMI 从 53.5 回落至 50.8，物价分项显著回升，但新订 单和需求减弱。3 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 关税对于光伏产业链的影响有限 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 新疆大厂东部基地在原复产 50 台矿热炉的基础上减产 28 台， 即剩余 22 台矿热炉在产，西部基地开炉 48 台，减产时间仍未 明确。西南地区工业硅缓慢复工，部分新建产能如永昌硅业、 新安盐津计划在本月陆续投产。本周多晶硅厂粉单释放，压价 严重，疆内 99 硅粉价格 10000-10100 元/吨，江苏 99 硅粉价格 在 10650-10730 元/吨。有机硅 4 月或再减产，铝合金维持刚需 采买。出口受政策影响，短期之内或将下行。供给减产已落 地，但在需求不见起色的情况下，工业硅基本面情况难改。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 地震影响硅片产出，但由于出现断线/焖锅问题，原单晶炉中 的硅料无法再使用，需要重新投料，因此对硅料需求而言或有 小幅利好。4 月多晶硅排产预计在 10 万吨左右。以此测算，4 月多晶硅有望去库超 2 万吨。但多晶硅的核心问题仍在于高企 的库存。考虑下游库存，则全行业库存或在 45 万吨左右。4-5 月硅片厂家策略以消化在手库存为主，采购积极性不高。目前 硅料厂策略仍以稳定价格为主，但抢装后 ...