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格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250428
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 06:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "slightly long" rating for TL, T, TF, and TS in the macro and financial bond sector [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The first - quarter economic data is good, with policy support and export - rushing factors. The GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.2%. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in March increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the profits in the first quarter continued to recover. Future policies may include timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After rising slowly in the morning and then falling back, they quickly rose due to important meeting news in the afternoon and then fluctuated and fell back. As of the close, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2506 rose 0.28%, the 10 - year T2506 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2506 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2506 fell 0.04% [1] 2. Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 250.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 509 billion yuan on the same day. On April 27, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 90 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.58% throughout the day, and that of DR007 was 1.64%. On April 27, the weighted average of DR001 was 1.61%, and that of DR007 was 1.71% [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On April 27, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with last Friday. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.50 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year increased by 0.10 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year increased by 0.01 BP to 1.66%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.24 BP to 1.93% [1] - **Policy Information**: On April 25, the Politburo meeting pointed out that policies such as timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts should be implemented to support the real economy, consolidate the real estate market, and stabilize and activate the capital market [1][3] - **Economic Data**: In March, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and in the first quarter, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1.50936 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The profits of the manufacturing industry in the first quarter increased by 7.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing in March increased by 14.3% year - on - year [1][3] 3. Market Logic - The good economic data in the first quarter is due to policy support and export - rushing factors. It is believed that the high tariffs between China and the US are difficult to resolve in the short term. The Politburo meeting proposed policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [3] 4. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3]
格林大华期货铁矿早盘提示-20250428
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 05:54
Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 研究员: 纪晓云 从业资格: F3066027 交易咨询资格:Z0011402 联系方式:010-56711796 | | | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周五铁矿主力 2509 合约收于 709.0,下跌 1.59%。次主力 2505 合约收于 760.5,下 跌 1.36%。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 指出,要坚持稳中求进工作总基调,完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念,加快构建新发 展格局,统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争,坚定不移办好自己的事,坚定不移扩 | | | | | 大高水平对外开放,着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,以高质量发展的确定 | | | | | 性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。会议强调,要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观 | | | | | 政策,用好用足更 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250428
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:54
Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | 【行情复盘】 上周五生猪期货窄幅震荡,LH2507 合约日涨幅 0.33%,收于 13540 元/吨;LH2509 合约日涨幅 0.14%,收于 14150 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、周末猪价小幅下跌,27 日全国生猪均价 14.79 元/公斤,较 25 日跌 0.15 元/公 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 斤;今日早间猪价北稳南弱,东北弱稳至 14-14.8 元/公斤,山东弱稳至 14.6-15.3 元/公斤,河南稳定至 14.6-15.1 元/公斤,四川稳定至 14.2-14.6 元/公斤,广东稳 定至 15.4-16 元/公斤,广西稳定至 14-14.4 元/公斤。 | | | | 2、1 月,全国中大猪存栏同比增加 1.1%,规模场同比增加 4%;1 月全国新生仔猪同 比增加 2.5%,2 月同比增幅超过 10%。 | | | | 3、官方口径显示我国 25 年 3 月能繁母猪存栏 4039 万头,同比增加 47 万头,是正 | | | | 常保有量的 103.6%。 4、4 月 27 日生猪肥标价差为 0 ...
油脂油料期货月报:宏观、供应和资金油粕宽幅振荡-20250425
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 15:07
格林大华期货油脂油料期货月报 2025年04月25日 从业资格:F0276812 油脂油料月报 更多精彩内容 请关注 官方微信 期货从业资格证号:F0276812 期货交易咨询号:Z0011862 格林大华期货 研究员:刘锦 13633849418 宏观、供应和资金 油粕宽幅振荡 多空逻辑: 利多因素:中美贸易争端、中加菜籽反倾销调查、美豆生长关键期、美国生柴政策带动 的美豆油强势上涨、中印需求预期回升、国内油粕库存偏低、海关巴西大豆检验通关缓慢、 油粕外资多头资金配置、、 利空因素:美俄关系修复,OPEC+5月份供应增加,国际原油价格承压,巴西大豆上市压 力加大,国内菜籽油库存5年历史新高,油脂消费淡季 操作建议:油脂宽幅振荡,豆油2509支撑位7200,压力位8500;棕榈油2509合约支撑位 7700,压力位9000;菜籽油2509合约支撑位8750,压力位10000;双粕震荡,豆粕2509支 撑位2710,压力位3100;菜粕2509合约支撑位2370,压力位2780 风险提示:1、国际原油价格震荡中选择方向,OPEC+成员国5月份增产,国际原油有承压 预期 2、印尼B40计划能否推行是后续棕榈油走势 ...
格林大华期货中国宏观经济4月报:实施更加积极有为的宏观政策-20250425
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 14:51
2025年4月25日 F3063825 Z0016580 liuyang18036@greendh.com 实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 格林大华期货中国宏观经济4月报 刘洋 联系方式: 一季度中国GDP同比增长5.4%,市场预期5.2% 2 一季度第二产业同比增长5.9%,第三产业同比增长5.3% 来源:wind,格林大华 1-3月份,全国固定资产投资同比增长4.2%,市场预期4.0%,增速比1-2月份加快0.1个百分点。分 类来看,1-3月广义基建投资(含电力)同比增长11.5%,市场预期增长7.2%,1-2月增长9.95%。1- 3月制造业投资同比增长9.1%,市场预期增长8.9%,1-2月增长9.0%。1-3月份,全国房地产开发投 资同比下降9.9%,市场预期下降10.2%,1-2月下降9.8%。 4 1-3月份,全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降3.0% 3 1-3月份,全国固定资产投资同比增长4.2%,1-2月4.1% 1-3月份,全国新建商品房销售面积21869万平方米,同比下降3.0%,1-2月同比下降5.1%, 2024年全年同比下降12.9%。1-3月份,全国新建商品房销售额20798亿元,同比 ...
市场抛盘枯竭,政策利好提振
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 14:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share market shows continuous volume contraction, indicating exhaustion of selling pressure, and the market is waiting for more positive signals. The stock index is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, and short - term fluctuations should be ignored. The far - month contracts of stock index futures continue to trade at a discount [7][16]. - The Politburo meeting decides to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies, including making full use of fiscal and monetary policies, accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and taking measures to support the real economy, innovation, consumption, and foreign trade. It also focuses on stabilizing and activating the capital market and promoting the healthy development of the real estate market [15][18][19]. - Various incremental funds are continuously increasing their positions in ETFs. As of April 18, the total scale of ETFs reached 4.01 trillion yuan, with equity - based ETFs accounting for over 80%. The trading volume of ETFs has increased during market fluctuations, which is significant for stabilizing the market and expectations [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - A - share market volume shrank to 0.91 trillion yuan on April 18, indicating exhaustion of selling pressure [7]. - The U.S. market experienced a rebound in the Nasdaq under the pressure of stock - bond - exchange triple - kill and the easing of reciprocal tariffs [9]. Policy Support - The Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, such as timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, creating new structural monetary policy tools, and establishing new policy - based financial instruments [15][18][19]. - The People's Bank of China supports the Central Huijin Company to increase its holdings of stock market index funds and provides sufficient re - loans when necessary to maintain the stable operation of the capital market [15]. ETF Investment - As of April 18, the total scale of ETFs reached 4.01 trillion yuan, with equity - based ETFs exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan, accounting for over 80%. The net subscription of equity - based ETFs since April 7 exceeded 230 billion yuan [20]. - The scale of Huatai - Berry CSI 300 ETF reached 375.712 billion yuan as of April 18, being the largest ETF in China [20]. Economic Data - In March, China's export amount was 313.9 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% [21]. - The monthly value of social consumer goods retail in March was 3.67 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [23]. - The monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment in March was 2.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [25]. - The monthly value of infrastructure investment in March was 2.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year growth rate of 12.6% [27]. - In March, the monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales area stabilized [29]. - In March, industrial added value increased by 0.44% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year cumulatively, with an accelerating growth rate [31]. U.S. Economic Data - In March, U.S. retail and food sales increased by 1.4% month - on - month, indicating strong consumption [47]. - In February, U.S. commodity imports were 328.9 billion US dollars, the second - highest level, with a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [49]. - In February, the U.S. job openings reached 7.56 million, an increase of 200,000, and the voluntary resignation rate was 2%, indicating a tightening labor market [60]. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: Wait for the end of the sideways consolidation. Be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and ignore short - term fluctuations. The far - month contracts of stock index futures are expected to continue to trade at a discount [16][66][68]. - Stock index options trading: Suspend the operation of deep - out - of - the - money call options on the far - month stock index and wait for the market to break upward [70].
格林大华期货养殖业月报-20250425
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 14:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, corn futures traded within a range, while hog and egg futures first rose and then declined. The report suggests a long - term range - bound operation for corn, a low - buying strategy in the medium term, and a short - term bullish trend. For hogs, the supply is expected to increase in 2025, with short - term price fluctuations between 14 - 15 yuan/kg, and medium - to long - term supply pressure. For eggs, the supply is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the inventory may first decrease and then increase after the May Day holiday [6][10][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Macro Logic - The tariff event affects the global corn market in terms of price, supply, and trade flow, and impacts the domestic corn market mainly at the emotional level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact of the tariff event on the global grain market [12][101]. Industry Logic - The corn market may enter a passive inventory - building cycle. Key factors to watch include the auction policies of targeted rice/imported corn and grain import policies [13][102]. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is gradually tightening, while the supply - demand of US corn remains relatively loose. In China, there is a long - term corn production - demand gap, and the substitution pricing logic remains unchanged. The import volume in the 24/25 season is expected to decrease significantly, and the domestic supply - demand pattern may shift from loose to basically balanced. In the medium term, after the seasonal supply pressure is released, the supply may gradually tighten. In the second quarter, focus on the policy - grain release rhythm, wheat substitution scale, and channel selling mentality [13][102]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, the pig production capacity increases, and the supply of hogs enters an upward cycle. The存栏 of egg - laying and meat - producing poultry remains high, so the feed consumption maintains a rigid demand. The deep - processing consumption is generally stable with a slight increase, providing rigid support for corn prices. In the second quarter, focus on the inventory - building efforts of downstream feed enterprises and the changes in hog/poultry存栏 [13][102]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short term, domestic grass - roots grain sales are nearing completion, port inventories are declining from high levels, and spot prices are fluctuating. In the medium term, the supply may gradually tighten, but the release of policy - grain sources and the expected wheat substitution may limit the upward price space. In the long term, the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be emphasized. In May, focus on supply variables such as wheat substitution and policy - grain auctions [14][103]. Trading Strategy - Long - term range - bound operation; medium - term low - buying strategy; short - term bullish trend. For the 2507 contract, watch whether it can break through the 2340 - 2350 pressure level. If it breaks through effectively, the expected price range will move up to 2370 - 2380. For the 2509 contract, if it effectively stands above 2350, the expected price range will move up to 2380 - 2400; otherwise, maintain a range - trading strategy [14][103]. Hogs Macro Logic - Domestically, focus on the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices. In March 2025, the CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and factors such as the Spring Festival month - shift narrowed the year - on - year decline and significantly increased the month - on - month figure [56][104]. Industry Logic - Against the background of the normalization of post - African swine fever diseases, passive capacity reduction leads to significant periodic fluctuations in hog prices, shortening the price fluctuation cycle but increasing the frequency. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding sector is not over, and enterprises with low costs and good financial conditions continue to increase capacity utilization and expand market share. The slaughter plans of the top 30 breeding groups in 2025 are still expected to increase year - on - year [57][105]. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Excluding the impact of winter diseases, the hog supply in 2025 enters an upward cycle. The sow存栏 data shows a high level, and the production indicators of some leading breeding enterprises are improving, increasing the supply pressure. The number of newborn piglets has been increasing, and the post - Spring Festival slaughter weight is higher than in previous years [58][106]. - **Demand**: Pork consumption is relatively rigid, mainly following seasonal patterns in the short - to medium - term, and long - term attention should be paid to changes in the consumption structure [74]. Market Viewpoint - In the short term, the market supply is relatively balanced, and the national hog price fluctuates between 14 - 15 yuan/kg. As the weather gets warmer, the supply may exceed demand. In the medium term, the high number of newborn piglets and increasing slaughter weight will lead to continuous supply pressure in the next six months. In the long term, if diseases are excluded, the hog production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [59][107]. Operation Suggestion - The futures market has already priced in the downward expectation. After the Spring Festival, it has been trading on the repair logic. The medium - term trend is range - bound, and the short - term trend is weakly bearish. The support level for the 2507 contract is 13300 - 13400, and the pressure level is 13700. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13800 - 13900, and the pressure level is 14600 - 14700 [60][108]. Eggs Macro Logic - Domestically, focus on raw material prices and CPI changes. Currently, the prices of meat and vegetables are stable, and the macro - driving force is weak [78][110]. Industry Logic - The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four consecutive years. Driven by profits, the large - scale rate of egg - laying chicken breeding continues to increase, which will change the breeding subject structure and production efficiency [78][110]. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: The存栏 of grandparent - stock egg - laying chickens has increased, and the import proportion has risen significantly. The存栏 of laying hens is slowly increasing and remains at a high level. The culling rhythm of old hens is slower than expected due to breeding profits [79][111]. - **Demand**: Historically, consumption increases slightly month - on - month in May. After the downstream stocking before the May Day holiday is basically completed, the current inventories in the production and circulation links are rising. It is expected that the inventory will be digested during the May Day holiday, and downstream consumption will support the spot price after the inventory adjustment [79][111]. Feed Cost - As of April 24, the feed cost per catty of eggs is 3.11 yuan, and the average weekly profit per catty of fresh eggs is 0.18 yuan. Rising feed costs support egg prices. The impact of feed prices on breeding profits should be monitored, as stable feed prices may slow down the culling rhythm, while rising prices may accelerate it [80][112]. Inventory Level - After the Spring Festival, the inventory declined from a high level and reached the lowest in early April, maintaining a low level for about two weeks. In late April, the inventory started to rise rapidly. As of April 24, the average production - link inventory was 1.16 days, the same as in 2024, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.28 days, compared with 1.03 days in 2024. It is expected that the supply will increase in May, and the inventory may first decrease and then increase after the May Day holiday [81][114]. Culling Rhythm - Since April, the culling rhythm of old hens has slowed down significantly, and the price of old hens has stopped falling and started to rise. As of April 24, the average price of old hens in Xinji was 5 yuan/kg, compared with 4.2 yuan/kg in 2024. The weekly culling age of old hens was 536 days, compared with 501 days in 2024. The current culling scale is lower than expected, and the large - scale culling time should be closely watched [82][113]. Variety Viewpoint - In the medium term, based on the data of chick replenishment and hen culling, the存栏 of laying hens is expected to increase from March to June. Insufficient culling willingness and forced molting may increase the supply pressure in the second quarter, and breeding profits may turn negative. In the long term, if the capacity reduction in the second quarter is less than expected, the supply pressure may continue into the second half of the year; otherwise, the pressure may be significantly relieved. Currently, the willingness to cull hens is increasing, and the impact of the culling rhythm on far - month contracts should be noted [83][115]. Trading Strategy - The report previously suggested paying attention to short - selling opportunities after the spot price peaks. The previously suggested pressure levels of 3180 - 3200 for the 2507 contract and 3880 - 3900 for the 2509 contract have been verified by the market. If the 2507 contract effectively breaks below the MA20 moving average and the 2509 contract effectively breaks below 3800, further downward space may open; otherwise, maintain a range - trading strategy. The 2506 main contract has fallen below the MA60 moving average following the spot price. Currently, the futures price is significantly at a discount to the spot price, and the short - term downward space should not be overestimated. Wait for further spot price movements [84][116].
格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250425
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 03:12
格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 25 日星期五 研究员: 刘洋 从业资格: F3063825 交易咨询资格:Z0016580 联系方式:liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开,早盘冲高后有所回落,午后震荡下行,截至 收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2506 下跌 0.08%,10 年期 T2506 下跌 0.09%,5 | | | | | 年期 TF2506 下跌 0.11%,2 年期 TS2506 下跌 0.05%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场:周四央行开展了 2180 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作,当日有 2455 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期,当日实现净回笼 275 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场:周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日小幅下行,DR001 全天加 | | | | | 权平均为 1.60%,上一交易日加权平均 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250425
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 01:47
| 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | CBOT 玉米期货:隔夜 CBOT 玉米期货震荡收涨,主力合约日涨幅 0.78%。 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货: 隔夜玉米期货夜盘震荡偏弱,2507 合约夜盘收盘跌幅 0.04%,收于 | | | | | 2327 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示,昨日南北港口价格小幅上涨。鲅鱼圈(容重680-730 | | | | | /15%水)收购价2180-2200元/吨,较前一日涨10元/吨;锦州港(15%水/容重680-7 | | | | | 20)收购价2180-2200元/吨,较前一日涨10元/吨;蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2290元/ | | | | | 吨,较前一日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 2、昨日深加工企业收购价稳中有涨。东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业玉米主流收购 | | | | | 均价2110元/吨,较前一日涨2元/吨。华北黄淮地区重点企业主流收购均价2313元/ | | | | | ...
煤焦数据解读:2025年1-3月前十大煤炭国企产量
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-24 14:53
Report Summary 1. Core View - The total coal production of the top 10 coal - producing state - owned enterprises in China from January to March 2025 increased year - on - year, matching the overall domestic coal production trend. After the "good start" in the first quarter, the situation of coal supply surplus will intensify in the second quarter [1]. 2. Key Data - **Top 10 Coal Enterprises' Production**: The total production of the top 10 coal - producing state - owned enterprises from January to March 2025 was 590 million tons, an increase of 89.74 million tons year - on - year, accounting for 49.2% of the total production of enterprises above the designated size [1]. - **Individual Enterprise Production and Growth Rates**: - National Energy Group produced 154.28 million tons from January to March 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [1]. - Jinneng Holding Group produced 100.8 million tons, with a significant increase compared to 81.24 million tons in the same period of 2024 [1]. - Shandong Energy Group produced 67.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [1]. - China National Coal Group produced 67.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [1]. - Shaanxi Coal Group produced 63.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [1]. - Shanxi Coking Coal Group produced 46.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.4% [1]. - Huaneng Group produced 27.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.3% [1]. - Lu'an Chemical Group produced 24.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [1]. - State Power Investment Corporation produced 20.71 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [1]. - Henan Energy Group produced 18.81 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.2% (previous year's data was not disclosed) [1]. - **Shanxi Enterprises' Production Growth**: The three major coal enterprises in Shanxi Province (Jinneng Holding Coal Industry, Shanxi Coking Coal Group, and Lu'an Chemical Group) had significant production increases. Their combined production increased by 12.83 million tons year - on - year, matching the 20.68% increase in Shanxi's coal production from January to March 2025 [1].