Group 1: Market Performance - Tuesday saw pressure on the market at the opening with selling, followed by a surge in buying as pressure eased in the afternoon, leading to a quick rebound in growth - related indices and then renewed selling pressure. The semiconductor sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 2.89 trillion yuan, showing a contraction compared to the previous period. The CSI 500 index closed at 8,548 points, up 42 points or 0.50%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 8,382 points, up 16 points or 0.20%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3,052 points, up 2 points or 0.09%; while the SSE 300 index closed at 4,705 points, down 1 point or - 0.03% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, those related to Sino - Korean semiconductors, science - innovation semiconductors, etc. led the gains, while vaccine, coal, and agricultural ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices of the two markets, automotive chips, cultivated diamonds, etc. led the gains, and coke processing, aquaculture, etc. led the losses [1]. - Net inflows of settlement funds into CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index stock - index futures were 2.8 billion and 1.1 billion yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Important Information - China's commercial space industry faces challenges of urgent satellite applications and insufficient launch capacity. The keys to success are technological innovation (reusable rockets), efficiency improvement (batch production), and industrial ecosystem improvement. Current difficulties include limited launch sites, restricted resources, and insufficient application scenarios [1]. - The cost of the first - stage rocket body accounts for over 70%. Once reusable technology is achieved, the total rocket launch cost can be reduced by 40% - 60%. In 2026, many commercial rockets like Lijian - 2 and Tianlong - 3 are planned to be launched, with more attempts at reusable rockets to narrow the technological gap [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace deployed Tongyi Qianwen Qwen3 large - model to the "Star Computing" Plan 01 group space computing center, the world's first deployment of a general large - model from the ground to an in - orbit satellite. The whole process of uploading problems to the satellite, in - orbit reasoning by the large - model, and data return to the ground takes less than 2 minutes [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace announced a large - scale "Star Computing" Plan to deploy 2,400 inference - computing satellites and 400 training - computing satellites into 500 - 1000 km orbits, forming a global training - inference computing power network through satellite - to - ground and inter - satellite laser communication networking [1]. - The "Star Computing" Plan aims to achieve a constellation of over a thousand satellites and commercial operation by 2030, with over 95% being inference - computing satellites and on - orbit verification of large - scale training - computing satellites, and full constellation deployment by 2035, mainly serving silicon - based intelligent agents and AI model inference and training in land, sea, air, and space fields [1][2]. - Emerging market stock and bond ETFs had a total net inflow of $6.83 billion, continuing the 14 - week consecutive inflow trend, though slightly lower than the previous week. Chinese - related ETFs were the most favored, with $1.65 billion flowing into the Chinese market that week [2]. - TianShu Intelligence, a general GPU company, released a four - generation architecture roadmap, aiming to create a new paradigm of AI++ computing power system with the goal of "high - quality computing power" centered on "efficiency, predictability, and sustainability", and expects to surpass NVIDIA's Rubin architecture in 2027 [2]. - If the imbalance between supply and demand of memory chips persists until the first half of 2027, it could be an opportunity for Chinese manufacturers to narrow the technological gap as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron cannot meet global demand, but Chinese competitors may erode their advantages after the market cools down [2]. - Zijin Mining acquired United Gold for 28 billion yuan. United Gold's core assets include the Sadiola Gold Mine in Mali, a gold complex in Ivory Coast, and the Kurmuk Gold Mine in Ethiopia to be put into production in the second half of 2026. As of the end of 2024, United Gold had 533 tons of gold resources with an average grade of 1.48 grams per ton [2]. - Microsoft launched its second - generation self - developed AI chip Maia 200, a key step to reduce dependence on NVIDIA chips and more efficiently drive its own services. The chip, manufactured by TSMC using 3 - nanometer technology, has been deployed in a data center in Iowa, marking significant progress in Microsoft's self - developed chip field [2]. - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the US is like a powder keg on the verge of civil war, deeply in the "pre - collapse stage" with poor financial conditions and internal conflicts, and at risk of entering the sixth stage marked by the collapse of the existing order through civil war or revolution [2]. Group 3: Market Logic - The market situation on Tuesday was characterized by initial selling pressure, followed by a rebound in growth - related indices as buying emerged, and then renewed selling. Guoxing Aerospace's deployment of the large - model to the space computing center, the upcoming maturity of over 50 trillion yuan in long - term fixed - deposits of residents in 2026, SpaceX's plan to achieve full rocket reusability, and high - profile statements from financial institutions all influenced the market [1][2][3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that profit growth will be the core support for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2026, expecting A - share corporate profit growth to increase from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027, driven by AI, overseas expansion, and "anti - involution" [2]. - UBS indicates that international investors are accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. The proportion of Chinese assets held by the top 40 international investment institutions tracked by UBS has reached a new high since 2023, and active overseas funds have started to increase their positions in Chinese assets [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - In 2026, over 50 trillion yuan in long - term fixed - deposits of residents will mature. Portfolio products like FOF and fund investment advisors are expected to be the preferred choices for banks to absorb the matured funds due to their risk - diversification and relatively stable returns [3]. - SpaceX plans to launch the second - generation Starlink cellular system in 2027, aiming for satellite - direct connection services similar to 5G on the ground, requiring the launch of 15,000 new satellites. The system's capacity will increase by over 100 times, and data throughput will increase by over 20 times [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that in 2026, the net inflow of new capital into the Chinese stock market will exceed 3 trillion yuan, including about 2 trillion yuan from individual investors and over 1 trillion yuan from institutional investors [3]. - UBS's communication with overseas clients has heated up. Trading - oriented investors are actively increasing their positions in Chinese assets, and allocation - oriented investors are optimizing the weight of Chinese assets in their global portfolios while monitoring fundamentals and policy implementation [3]. - UBS Wealth Management's Investment Director's Office believes that the upward trend of the Chinese market is likely to continue in 2026, with advanced manufacturing and technological self - reliance becoming new growth engines. Global funds are increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, and AI capabilities, valuation attractiveness, and resilience are the common logics. The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds into the Chinese capital market [3]. - The RMB is appreciating rapidly, with the offshore RMB exchange rate reaching 6.94, indicating a large - scale return of US dollars hoarded overseas by foreign - trade enterprises. After the New Year's Day, funds are flowing from enterprise accounts to resident accounts and then to securities accounts [3]. - Driven by the wealth effect, a large amount of off - market funds is still flowing in. After continuous selling, the scale of CSI 500 ETF held by policy funds, which was a little over 100 billion yuan, showed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday. Market funds may choose the CSI 500 index, representing mid - cap stocks, as a breakthrough point for an upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are still favored in the long - term [3]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - For stock - index futures directional trading, after continuous selling, the selling pressure of policy - held CSI 500 ETF showed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday. Market funds may choose the CSI 500 index, representing mid - cap stocks, as a breakthrough point for an upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are still favored in the long - term [3]. - For stock - index option trading, consider buying far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 1000 index [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - China is a major producer of primary magnesium, with its production capacity accounting for about 85% of the global total. Shanxi Province holds a significant advantage in the magnesium industry due to its abundant resource reserves, complete industrial chain, and strong technological innovation capabilities [3]. - The magnesium - to - aluminum price ratio has dropped to 0.7 times, highlighting the cost - effectiveness of magnesium. However, the downstream application of magnesium has not yet been fully launched. The demand for magnesium is expected to gradually increase with the growth of the market for lightweight automobiles, two - wheeled electric vehicles, and new energy vehicles [4]. - Shanxi magnesium enterprises face intensified industry competition, especially from the acceleration of central and state - owned enterprises' entry into the market [4]. - Most Shanxi magnesium enterprises have an open attitude towards futures tools and will gradually strengthen their futures - related team building and the application of these tools after the listing of magnesium futures [4]. 3. Summary by Company Company A - **Enterprise Situation**: Privatized in 2001 and reorganized in 2015. It has an annual production capacity of 65,000 tons of primary magnesium, 30,000 tons of magnesium alloy, and 50,000 tons of deep - processed magnesium products, with 10 production lines for deep - processed products. It has its own mine with a reserve of 2 - 3 million tons per year. Its annual revenue from the magnesium industry is less than 1.5 billion yuan, and the annual R & D investment is about 40 million yuan [5]. - **Business Model**: The domestic mainstream magnesium smelting process is the Pidgeon process. Different from the production in Yulin, Shaanxi, which uses coke oven gas, this enterprise has been focusing on deep - processing since 2020 and has a large environmental protection investment. The pricing model varies, with different payment terms for different customers. Overseas sales account for 10% of the total [6]. - **Production Profit**: In 2025, the sales revenue of magnesium alloy was less than 1.5 billion yuan, and that of the deep - processing sector was more than 200 million yuan. The gross profit rate of deep - processed products varies, with military products at 40 - 50%, general products at 15 - 20%, and magnesium alloy products at 20% [7]. - **Future Plan**: Focus on increasing the deep - processing capacity and market development, especially for high - end products such as magnesium alloy automobile wheels. Continuously invest in the green transformation of smelting technology. Be cautious about entering the automotive industry [8]. - **Futures Participation**: Willing to participate in the futures market after the listing of magnesium futures [9]. Company B - **Enterprise Situation**: Mainly engaged in primary magnesium, extrusion, and control processes. It has an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of primary magnesium (40,000 tons at full capacity), 30,000 - 50,000 tons of magnesium alloy, and 50,000 tons of precision die - castings. It has a complete industrial chain from dolomite mining to deep - processing of magnesium alloy. Its subsidiary new materials company plans to go public in the future [10]. - **Cost and Price**: The break - even point of the comprehensive cost of magnesium ingots in the industry is about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the current magnesium price is around 16,500 yuan/ton. The magnesium - to - aluminum ratio has dropped to 0.7, but the downstream application has not increased [11]. - **Downstream Application and Customers**: The utilization rate of the production capacity for two - wheeled electric vehicles is 50 - 60% due to the new national standard. The development of magnesium alloy in the automotive industry is slow. There is cooperation with Huawei and SAIC, and there is demand in the aerospace and satellite Internet fields [12]. - **Future Plan**: Plan to expand the primary magnesium production capacity by 50,000 tons after obtaining energy consumption and carbon emission indicators. Aim to increase the local magnesium production capacity from 42% to 50 - 60% of the national total and build a magnesium industrial cluster [13]. - **Futures Participation**: Will train professional futures talents to hedge price risks if magnesium futures are listed [14]. Company C - **Enterprise Situation**: Its market share of magnesium alloy ranks among the top three globally. It has a production capacity of 30,000 tons of primary magnesium, 60,000 tons of magnesium alloy (actual output of 40,000 tons), 6,000 tons of magnesium anodes, and 15,000 tons of magnesium powder. It has a large investment in high - pressure magnesium die - casting [15]. - **Cost and Raw Material Procurement**: It has a short - to - medium - term irreversible disadvantage in energy and environmental protection operation costs compared with northern Shaanxi. It locks in part of the silicon - iron procurement volume at the long - term average price and replenishes the insufficient supply of primary magnesium through waste recycling [16]. - **Downstream Application and Customers**: Automobile parts account for 70 - 80% of the demand for magnesium materials. It is also involved in two - wheeled vehicles, stage supports, household items, 3C products, and medical parts. The domestic demand for magnesium alloy is expected to reach 2 - 3 million tons in 3 - 5 years [17]. - **Future Plan**: Interested in accessing the capital market but has no clear listing plan [18]. - **Futures Participation**: Will consider using futures for hedging if the problems of small industry scale and product preservation are solved [19]. Company D - **Enterprise Situation**: Listed in 2020, it covers multiple industries such as smart home, new energy vehicles, industrial equipment, and power components. Its subsidiary has an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of various parts and an annual sales revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, and it has a 5G + industrial Internet platform [20]. - **Downstream Application and Customers**: Its customers are mainly in the new energy vehicle, industrial robot, and aero - engine fields. Its aluminum alloy products are mainly for military enterprises. The difficulty of obtaining automobile orders has decreased compared to three years ago [21]. - **Future Plan**: Plan to build a global - scale industrial base for smart home, new energy vehicle, and industrial equipment parts, with an investment of 150 million yuan in 2026 and 300 million yuan in 2027. Also, invest more in military products and is involved in the commercial aerospace field [22]. - **Futures Participation**: Has previously contacted the futures market in pig iron smelting but did not participate due to its small scale [23].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 27 日星期二 ...

| | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.50%，报 5004.8 美元/盎司。COMEX 白银期货涨 2.52%，报 103.89 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 1.49%报 1148.14 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 9.93% 报 29005 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 26 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1086.53 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 115.58 吨，当前持仓量为 15974.4 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率 2.8%，维持利率不变 | | | | | 的概率为 97.2%。到 3 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 15.5%，维持利率不 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，全天横向窄幅波动，30 | 年期品种略多，截至 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 上涨 | 0.20%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 下跌 | 0.02%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 下跌 | 0.02%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 下跌 | 0.02%。 | | 【重 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格下跌 54 元至 6029 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 5940 元/吨（环比+50），山东地区现货价格 5934 元/吨（环比+118）。持仓方面， 多头增加 670 手至 2.18 万手，空头减少 315 手至 2.67 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，12 月国内纯苯产量 193.4 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 纯苯 | 震荡 | 万吨，环比-7.4%。 2、库存方面，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：29.7 万吨，较上期库存 32.4 万吨 去库 2.7 万吨，环比下降 8.33%；较去年同期库存 14.3 万吨累库 15.4 万吨，同比 上升 107.69%。1 月 12 日-1 月 18 日，不完全统计到货 0 吨，提货约 2.7 万吨。 3、需求方面，苯乙烯开⼯率 70.8%，环⽐- ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 27 日星期二 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ICE3 月合约结算价 62.97 跌 84 点，5 月 64.68 跌 80 点，7 月 66.30 跌 67 点；成 交约 10.1 万手。 | | | | | 郑棉总成交 644470 持仓 1145743。结算价 5 月 14620，9 月 14770，1 月 15180。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、1 月 23 日新疆巴州区域机采棉 3129B 含杂 2.5%以内对应 2605 合约疆内库销 | | | | | 售基差在 1030-1080 元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (urea) is "slightly more long - biased and oscillatory" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea price is in a slightly stronger oscillation, and the reference range for the 05 contract is 1,740 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to sell put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 rose by 4 yuan to 1,791 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1,740 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 707 lots to 252,000 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 613 lots to 271,900 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: On January 26th, the daily urea production was 209,400 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous working day and 14,700 tons from the same period last year. The current start - up rate is 88.95%, a 2.01% increase from 86.94% in the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from last week, a 4.07% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 134,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of compound fertilizer is 40.1%, a 2.9% month - on - month increase, and the start - up rate of melamine is 54.3%, a 6.7% month - on - month increase [1] - **Tender**: On January 2nd, India's NFL urea import tender received 26 suppliers with a total bid of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest bids were from Koch, at CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, urea imports were 35.39 tons, an 82.11% month - on - month decrease, and the average import price was 2,963.69 dollars/ton, a 52.11% month - on - month decrease. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a 53.75% month - on - month decrease, and the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a 56.64% month - on - month decrease [1] - **Oil Price**: The US plans to strengthen sanctions on the oil sectors of some countries, increasing concerns about potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.71 dollars/barrel to 61.07 dollars/barrel, a 2.88% month - on - month increase; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.82 dollars/barrel to 65.88 dollars/barrel, a 2.84% month - on - month increase. China's INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 6.9 to 439.4 yuan/barrel and rose 10.4 to 449.8 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] Market Logic - Last week, the urea enterprise inventory continued to decline slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was 1,680 - 1,720 yuan/ton. New order pre - sales of urea factories improved again, but due to the pre - sales pressure during the Spring Festival holiday, the urea price oscillated slightly stronger [1] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to sell put options [1]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 27 日星期二 联系方式：0371-65617380 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | | | 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日生猪期货震荡偏弱，主力2603合约日跌幅0.99%，收于11465元/吨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、价格方面，昨日全国生猪均价为12.82元/公斤，较前一日跌0.14元/公斤；预计 | | | | 今日早间猪价延续北弱南稳，东北跌至12.2-12.9元/公斤，山东跌至12.9-13.4元/ | | | | 公斤，河南跌至12.9-13.4元/公斤，四川稳定至12.6-13.1元/公斤，广东稳定至13 | | | | -13.8元/公斤，广西稳定至12-12.6元/公斤。 | | | | 2、母猪存栏来看，12月末能繁母猪存栏3961万头，同比下降2.9%，为正常保有量的 | | | | 101.6%。 | | | | 3、仔猪数量来看，2025年1-9月新生仔猪数量环比持续增 ...

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 18 元至 2311 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格上涨 37 元至 2300 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 21258 手至 46.7 万手，空 头持仓增加 30783 手至 59.04 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 89.9%，环比-1.3%。海外甲醇开工率 60.8%，环比+1.3%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 震荡 | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 145.75 万吨，较上一期数据增加 2.22 万吨。 其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 1.36 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 3.58 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 43.83 万吨，较上期降 1.25 万吨，环比降 2.78%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 4.64 万吨，环比减少 4.78 万吨。 ...