Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is “Oscillation” [3] 2. Report's Core View - After the short - term digestion of news, Treasury bond futures may continue the seesaw effect with stocks and be volatile in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band trading [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher and moved sideways after the morning session. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.55%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.25%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.15%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.08% [3] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 457.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 159.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market increased compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.45% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.56% (1.58% the previous day) [3] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds decreased compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased 4.06 BP to 1.44%, the 5 - year decreased 3.30 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year decreased 2.44 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year decreased 3.31 BP to 2.17% [3] - On the 28th, the central bank website released the State Council's report on the financial work situation, stating that in the next step, it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain ample liquidity, and promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost [3] Market Logic - Over the weekend, China and the US reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns in economic and trade consultations in Malaysia. On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, fluctuated sideways throughout the day, and closed with a doji. The trading volume was 2.17 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 2.36 trillion yuan the previous day. Stimulated by the news of the central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading operations, Treasury bond futures opened sharply higher on Tuesday [3] Trading Strategy - After the short - term digestion of news, Treasury bond futures may continue the seesaw effect with stocks and be volatile in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band trading [3][4]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 29 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1242.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 1.7%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 收于 1747.5，环比日盘开盘下跌 1.80%。昨日夜盘，Jm2601 收于 1253.5，环比日盘收 盘上涨 0.93%；J2601 合约收于 1763.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.89%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、10 月 28 日，中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。 | | | | | 有关钢铁行业高质量发展方面，明确了发展方向与机遇。 | | | | | 2、11 月制造业用钢行业分化明显。钢结构企业原料库存月环比降 0.66% ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 29 日星期三 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 郑棉总成交 177346 手，持仓 908903 手。结算价 1 月 13565 元/吨，5 月 13580 元 /吨，9 月 13730 元/吨。 ICE12 月合约结算价 65.05 涨 49 点，3 月 66. ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 10 月 28 日，棕榈油拖累，植物油整体走弱。 豆油主力合约 Y2601 合约报收于 8182 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.63%，日增仓 | | | | | 11003 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8002 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.82%，日增 | | | | | 仓 7281 手; ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Betting on AI is still correct as the current AI boom's spread speed, low leverage, and valuation levels are fundamentally different from historical bubbles, with a two - thirds probability of a prosperous scenario and long - term strong fundamentals [1][2] - Chinese stocks are expected to have a more sustained upward trend, and the structural migration of Chinese capital to stocks may have begun [2] - The global economy is entering the top region due to the U.S.'s continuous wrong policies [2] Summary by Related Information AI - related - Analysts expect large tech companies' total capital expenditure to grow 24% to nearly $550 billion next year as they are competing to build AI super - computing centers [1] - Qualcomm is entering the AI data center market with new chip products to challenge Nvidia's dominance, offering up to 768GB memory and focusing on energy efficiency and AI reasoning [1] - AI has driven the South Korean Kospi index to soar over 66% this year, with strong demand for chip giants like Samsung and SK Hynix and government reform measures attracting foreign capital [1] - DeepSeek has launched a revolutionary OCR model to solve the computing power problem of AI in processing long documents [2] - The huge demand for energy by AI and the current global power supply have a large gap that may not be filled in our lifetime [2] Company - specific - Amazon plans to cut up to 30,000 employees, about 10% of its white - collar workforce, to cut costs and focus on AI [1] - Samsung Electronics will offer a 30% price cut on 12 - layer HBM3E to gain market share due to slow product yield improvement [1] - German industry is facing an outflow crisis, with over 200 billion euros of annual investment flowing overseas in the past five years and 70% of energy - intensive enterprises transferring production capacity [1] Payment - related - U.S. stablecoin payment volume soared, with the August transaction volume exceeding $10 billion, and corporate transfers accounting for nearly two - thirds. The annual payment scale is expected to reach $122 billion [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Since October, continuous rainy weather in major apple - producing areas has led to concerns about the quality and yield of early - ripe Fuji apples, causing a unilateral upward trend in apple futures prices, with the main contract breaking through the 9,000 yuan/ton mark [1]. - New - season apple production is estimated to be 34.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%, and market concerns about the quality of stored apples are rising [1]. - Considering the general domestic consumption performance, the 01 contract is expected to face pressure above 9,000 yuan/ton, and later attention should be paid to changes in purchase prices and storage conditions [1]. Summary by Relevant Content Market Situation - Apple futures prices have been rising unilaterally due to bad weather in major producing areas, and the main contract has broken through 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Production - New - season apple production is estimated to be 34.23 million tons, an 8.34% year - on - year decrease [1]. Regional Market Conditions - In the western产区, the transaction is nearly over, and the storage market is stable. In the Gansu产区, it operates smoothly, and fruit farmers are storing apples in an orderly manner. In the Shaanxi产区, the trading of high - quality and general - grade apples is basically over, with prices showing a strong trend, but the price of inferior fruits is chaotic [1]. - In Shandong, trading volume has increased, with high enthusiasm from buyers and storage operators, but the overall quality is slightly poor, and it is difficult to acquire high - quality goods, with prices remaining stable and slightly strong [1]. Price Details - In the Luochuan, Shaanxi产区, the price of semi - commercial late - Fuji apples over 70 is 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin, general - grade apples over 70 are 3.4 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the mainstream order price is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin [1]. - In the Jingning, Gansu产区, the price of commercial apples over 70 is 5 - 6 yuan/jin, the mainstream price is 5 - 5.5 yuan/jin, general - grade apples over 70 are about 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of damaged apples is 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin [1]. - In the Qixia, Shandong产区, the price of second - grade strip - red late - Fuji apples over 80 is about 3.50 yuan/jin, second - grade striped apples over 80 are about 4.00 yuan/jin, general - grade apples over 80 are about 2.80 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples over 80 are about 2.00 yuan/jin [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Since October, continuous rainy weather in major apple - producing areas has led to concerns about the quality and yield of early - maturing Fuji apples, causing a unilateral increase in apple futures prices, with the main contract breaking through the 9000 yuan/ton mark [1]. - The estimated output of new - season apples has been reduced to 34.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%, and market concerns about the quality of stored apples are rising [1]. - Considering the general domestic consumption performance, the 01 contract is expected to face pressure above 9000 yuan/ton, and later attention should be paid to changes in purchase prices and warehousing conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Production and Market Situation** - The current period is the critical verification period for apples to be harvested and stored. The estimated output of new - season apples has been reduced to 34.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.34% [1]. - **Regional Market Conditions** - In the western production areas, the transactions are nearly finished, and the warehousing market is generally stable. In the Gansu production area, the market is running smoothly with farmers storing apples in an orderly manner. In the Shaanxi production area, the transactions of high - quality and general - grade apples are basically over, with prices showing a strong trend, but the remaining inferior fruits have a large quantity and chaotic prices [1]. - In Shandong, the trading volume has increased, with high enthusiasm from purchasers and warehousing merchants, but the overall quality is slightly poor, and it is difficult to purchase high - quality apples, and prices remain stable with a slightly strong trend [1]. - Specific price information: In the Luochuan area of Shaanxi, the price of semi - commercial late - Fuji apples above 70 is 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 70 is 3.4 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the mainstream order price is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin. In the Jingning area of Gansu, the price of commercial apples above 70 is 5 - 6 yuan/jin, the mainstream price is 5 - 5.5 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 70 is about 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of damaged apples is 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In the Qixia area of Shandong, the price of second - grade flaky - red bagged late - Fuji apples above 80 is about 3.50 yuan/jin, the price of second - grade striped apples above 80 is about 4.00 yuan/jin, the price of general - grade apples above 80 is about 2.80 yuan/jin, and the price of third - grade apples above 80 is about 2.00 yuan/jin [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro conditions are improving, and the strengthening of external vegetable oils is expected to drive the collective rise of domestic vegetable oils. It is recommended to exit previous short positions and enter long positions. For double - meal products, due to the expected increase in import costs and the rise of US soybeans, double - meal will continue to rebound. Hold existing long positions, do not chase new highs, and wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 27, the vegetable oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil were strong due to Sino - US easing, while palm oil was still under pressure due to poor export data. The main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8,234 yuan/ton, up 0.49% day - on - day, with an increase of 19,494 lots. The main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 9,100 yuan/ton, down 0.24% day - on - day, with an increase of 6,799 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 9,748 yuan/ton, down 0.13% day - on - day, with a decrease of 7,617 lots [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On October 27, Sino - US economic and trade teams had their fifth face - to - face consultation since May. The two sides reached a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing 100% tariffs on China. International oil prices closed slightly lower on October 27. Brazil may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026. If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons. Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25 decreased by 0.4% compared with the same period in September. From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.71% month - on - month. As of the 43rd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils increased by 2.90% week - on - week [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Internationally, the continuous rise of crude oil and the Sino - US trade easing are expected to boost vegetable oils. The US - China negotiation results led to a jump in US soybeans and a rebound in US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is still under pressure due to increased production and decreased exports, but the decline is expected to be limited. Domestically, the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate has rebounded, and consumption is in a seasonal off - season. Macro factors are the main influencing factors [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, enter new long positions. The pressure and support levels for different contracts are provided, such as the Y2601 contract with a pressure level of 9,000 and a support level of 8,000 [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 23, domestic oilseeds fell, and the "buy oil, sell meal" arbitrage was unlocked, which supported the double - meal market. The main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at a certain price, down 0.03% day - on - day, with a decrease of 2,932 lots. The main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at a certain price, up 0.43% day - on - day, with a decrease of 2,653 lots [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation reached a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing 100% tariffs on China. As of October 20, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil's Parana state was 52%, and the excellent - good rate was 98%. In September, China's soybean imports reached 1.2869 billion tons, a record high. The Trump administration may announce a plan to rescue US farmers with an initial expenditure of up to $15 billion. As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons. As of the 43rd week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 312,000 tons week - on - week, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased by 13.48% week - on - week [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The market expects the resumption of US soybean exports to China, driving up US soybeans. The domestic fourth - quarter soybean supply is not in short - supply, but the procurement of Brazilian soybeans is slow due to poor crushing margins. The domestic rapeseed raw material inventory has dropped to zero, causing a sharp rise in the rapeseed meal futures market. Overall, due to the improving macro environment and the rise of US soybeans, the double - meal market continues to rebound [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, participate in short - term long positions cautiously as the rebound space is limited. Wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts, such as the M2601 contract with a pressure level of 3,250 and a support level of 2,685 [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton industry is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - ICE US cotton futures have risen again, and the main 12 - contract is quoted at 64.56 cents, up 0.36 cents. Trade negotiations between China and the US have made progress. Xinjiang cotton is concentrated on the market, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal stocking period. The expectation of a new - cotton bumper harvest is gradually verified and digested. Downstream, textile enterprises' inventories are in a tight - balance state, and the growth of orders has slowed down. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a volatile trend [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume is 260,198 lots, with an open interest of 911,206 lots. The settlement prices of the January, May, and September contracts are 13,575 yuan/ton, 13,575 yuan/ton, and 13,730 yuan/ton respectively. The settlement price of the ICE December contract is 64.56 cents, up 36 points; the March contract is 66.07 cents, up 36 points; the May contract is 67.30 cents, up 35 points, and the trading volume is about 51,000 lots [1] Important Information - On October 24, the settlement price of the ICE December contract was 64.20 cents/pound, up 0.13 cents/pound from the previous day; the March contract was 65.71 cents/pound, up 0.04 cents/pound; the May contract was 66.95 cents/pound, up 0.03 cents/pound, and the total trading volume was about 30,000 lots [1] - On October 24, the settlement price of the January Zhengzhou cotton contract was 13,550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the May contract was 13,550 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the September contract was 13,720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The total trading volume was 310,939 lots, and the open interest was 914,852 lots [1] - On October 24, the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,803 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices of Grade 2129B, Grade 2227B, and Grade 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton had different changes. The registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton decreased by 23 to 2,503, the effective forecasts increased by 203 to 685, and the total increased by 180 to 3,188 [1] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have risen again. Trade negotiations between China and the US have made progress. Xinjiang cotton is concentrated on the market, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal stocking period. The expectation of a new - cotton bumper harvest is gradually verified and digested. Downstream, textile enterprises' inventories are in a tight - balance state, and the growth of orders has slowed down. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a volatile trend [1] Trading Strategy - For the previous 01 contract, close the at - the - money straddle options, hold the put options and call options. For the 05 contract, hold the call options with an exercise price of 13,500 yuan/ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is short - term "oscillating bullish", but caution is advised regarding the upside potential [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The current arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month while the shipping volume increased. The previous hot metal daily output was still at a relatively high level but is expected to decline, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating bullish with limited upside [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Monday [3]. 3.2 Important Information - Premier Li Qiang attended the fifth RCEP leaders' meeting and called on all parties to work together to address challenges [3]. - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank and regulatory officials made key statements, including resuming open - market Treasury bond trading, improving the monetary policy framework, and cracking down on virtual currency operations [3]. - From October 20th to 26th, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 20.843 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.92 million tons [3]. - From October 20th to 26th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 33.884 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.548 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.259 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.008 million tons [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - The short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The current arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month while the shipping volume increased. The previous hot metal daily output was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons week - on - week, still at a relatively high level. Steel mills in some areas of Hebei are under production restrictions, and the hot metal output is expected to decline to below 2.3 million tons [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The market is short - term oscillating bullish, but due to the expected decline in hot metal output, caution is advised regarding the upside potential. The resistance level for the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750. Short - term operations with stop - losses are recommended [3].