Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 ICE3 月合约结算价 63.81 跌 7 点，5 月 65.48 跌 1 点，7 月 66.97 持平；成交约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 5.9 万手。 郑棉总成交 423536 持仓 1162273。结算价 5 月 14725，9 月 14885，1 月 15340。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、海关统计数据，2025 年 12 月我国棉花进口量 18 万吨，环比（12 万吨）增加 | | | | | 6 万吨，增幅 51.3%；同比（14 万吨）增加 4 万吨，增幅 31.0%。2025 年 1-12 月 | | | | | 我国累计进口棉花 107 万吨，同比减少 59.1%。2025/26 年度（2025.9-2025.12） | | | | | 累计进口棉花 49 万吨，同比增加 2.1%。 | | | | | 2、16 日 2025/2 ...

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 上周双焦盘面重心下行后反弹，焦煤主力合约收于 1157.0 元/吨，周跌幅 1.32%；焦炭 | | | | | 主力合约收于 1722.0 元/吨，周涨幅 0.12%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、江苏省发布通知，明确 2026 年将持续推进大规模设备更新、优化实施消费品以旧换 | | | | | 新。在优化实施消费品以旧换新方面，汽车报废更新、汽车置换更新、6 类家电以旧换 | | | | | 新以及 4 类数码和智能产品购新，执行全国统一的补贴标准。 | | | | | 2、上周，247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 85.51%，环比增加 0.03 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 7 元至 1788 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1740 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 301 手至 25.28 万手，空头持仓增加 4836 手至 27.12 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.2 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较去年同期 增加 2.79 万吨；今日开工率 85.8%，较去年同期 81.2%回升 4.5%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 94.60 万吨，较上周减少 4.01 万吨，环比减 | | | | | 少 4.07%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.4 万吨，环比持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and crude oil prices are firm. Last week, methanol inventories at ports increased slightly, while those in production areas decreased. The domestic market continued the rhythm of price - cut inventory clearance, with buyers making low - price and just - in - time purchases. In the short term, the market will fluctuate strongly. The reference range for contract 05 is 2250 - 2360. It is recommended to hold long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 64 yuan to 2334 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region rose by 25 yuan to 2263 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 2783 lots to 451,600 lots, and short positions decreased by 20,969 lots to 559,600 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The domestic methanol operating rate is 89.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 60.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [2] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4575 million tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from the previous period. In the East China region, inventory decreased by 13,600 tons; in the South China region, inventory increased by 35,800 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,800 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 238,300 tons, a slight increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The olefin operating rate is 85.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%; the acetic acid operating rate is 80.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% [2] 3.2.4 Import - In December 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the imports from Saudi Arabia were the largest, reaching 604,400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] 3.2.5 Crude Oil - The US plans to strengthen sanctions on the oil sectors of some countries, increasing concerns about potential supply risks and driving up international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.71 US dollars/barrel to 61.07 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.88%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.82 US dollars/barrel to 65.88 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.84%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 6.9 to 439.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 10.4 to 449.8 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and crude oil prices are firm. Last week, methanol inventories at ports increased slightly, while those in production areas decreased. The domestic market continued the rhythm of price - cut inventory clearance, with buyers making low - price and just - in - time purchases. In the short term, the market will fluctuate strongly. The reference range for contract 05 is 2250 - 2360 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [2]

早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，全天小幅冲高回落，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 上涨 | 0.07%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed up, and also closed up during the night session. The supply of five major steel products this week was 819,590 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.38 thousand tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 1,257,080 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10,070 tons and a growth rate of 0.8%. The weekly consumption of five major products was 809,520 tons, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.8% week-on-week and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week-on-week. Near the end of the year, steel mills' winter storage policies are being released one after another, but downstream winter storage willingness is average, with most holding a cautious attitude and the winter storage volume decreasing compared to last year. The current market's psychological winter storage price is concentrated at 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price level. Short-term long positions can be attempted, but it is expected that the upside space is limited, and stop-loss should be set. The support level of the rebar main contract is 3,050, and the pressure level is 3,200 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed up, and also closed up during the night session [1] 3.2 Important Information - In December 2025, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.791 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; from January to December, the production was 16.524 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.1% [1] - In December 2025, China's raw coal production was 437.035 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%; the cumulative production from January to December was 4.831782 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. From the provincial data, from January to December 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates of raw coal production in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were 2.1%, -1.0% and 2.9% respectively [1] - On January 22, 2026, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in December 2025, China's excavator production was 37,305 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. In the whole year of 2025, China's excavator production was 379,643 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [1] - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, taking promoting stable economic growth and reasonable recovery of prices as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 819,590 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.38 thousand tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 1,257,080 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,070 tons and a growth rate of 0.8%; the weekly consumption of five major products was 809,520 tons, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.8% week-on-week and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week-on-week [1] 3.3 Market Logic - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 819,590 tons, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The variety structure of steel production has differentiated this period, mainly with an increase in building materials production and a decrease in plate and coil production. The total inventory of five major steel products this week was 1,257,080 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10,070 tons and a growth rate of 0.8%. The total inventory of five major products has rebounded this week, and the inventory changes of building materials and plates have differentiated, with building materials showing inventory accumulation and plates showing inventory reduction. Building materials accumulated 14,870 tons of inventory, and plates reduced inventory by 4,800 tons. In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of five major products this week was 809,520 tons, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.8% week-on-week and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week-on-week. The consumption structure of building materials and plates among the five major products remained the same this week. Near the end of the year, steel mills' winter storage policies are being released one after another. The downstream winter storage willingness is average, with most holding a cautious attitude and the winter storage volume decreasing compared to last year. The current market's psychological winter storage price is concentrated at 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price level [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Short-term long positions can be attempted, but it is expected that the upside space is limited, and stop-loss should be set. The support level of the rebar main contract is 3,050, and the pressure level is 3,200 [1]

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 | 72 | 元至 | 6406 | 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 | 6340 | 元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | （+90），华南瓶片价格 | 6400 | 元/吨（+120）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 1359 | 手至 | 6.25 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 2504 | 手至 | 6.69 | 万手。 | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | 30.46 | 万吨，环比-2.07 | 万吨。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 国内聚酯瓶 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 | | 8、截止到 环比下降 比下降 | 3.83 万吨， 万吨，环 万吨，环比 | | 2026 年第 3 周末，国内三大食用油库存总量为 210.34 万吨，周度下降 1.79%，同比增加 5.10%。其中豆油库存为 114.04 万吨，周度下降 6.88 5.69%，同比增加 13.38%；食用棕油库存为 65.38 万吨，周度增加 1.64 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 增加 同比下降 | 4.78%， | | 2.57%，同比增加 46.20%；菜油库存为 30.91 万吨，周度增加 1.41 万吨，环比增加 43.64%。 | | | | 元/吨；基差 | 现货方面：截止 | 1 月 23 日，张家港豆油现货均价 8590 元/吨，环比下跌 30 | | | 496 | 元/吨，基 | | 元/吨，环比下跌 40 元/吨；广东棕榈油现货均价 8980 元/吨，环比上涨 130 | | | 差 36 | | | 元/吨，环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy has passed its peak and is moving downward due to continuous wrong - policies in the US [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Economic News - Musk said SpaceX hopes to achieve full rocket reusability this year, reducing space access cost by 100 times to under $100 per pound [1][2] - SpaceX plans to launch the second - generation cellular Starlink system in 2027, with capacity over 100 times and data throughput over 20 times higher than the current one, after technical preparations [1] - Musk discussed plans to launch solar AI satellites in the next few years, stating that space is the cheapest place for AI deployment and it could be realized in 2 - 3 years [1] - The limiting factor for AI deployment is energy. AI chip production grows exponentially, but power supply only grows 4 - 5% annually, except in China [1] - Musk said a 100 - mile - square solar panel area could power the US, and SpaceX and Tesla aim to build 100 GW solar manufacturing capacity in the US in about three years [1] - Fudan University released fiber chips, which may break through bottlenecks in the brain - machine interface field [1] - A $280 - million trading volume pushed Japan's $72 - trillion treasury bond market to the verge of collapse [1] - The US President said he would "strongly retaliate" if European countries sell US assets in response to tariff threats [1] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The US's actions like trying to control Venezuelan oil and buying Greenland bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - The US prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, with expected uncertainty from July to November 2026 and a possible "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, buy $40 billion short - term bonds monthly, and expand its balance sheet [2] - High - end consumer spending in the US remains resilient, but middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.30% [2] - TSMC's 2026 capital expenditure is estimated to be $52 - 56 billion, a significant increase of 27 - 37% year - on - year, signaling a continued AI boom [2] 3.3 Impact of US Policy - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [3]

市场快讯---COMEX白银站上100美元/盎司 2026年1月24日 1月23日COMEX白银期货收涨7.15%，报103.26美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货收涨1.42%，报4983.10美元/盎 司。美欧围绕格林兰岛争执放缓之后，又传出美国正调集重兵前往伊朗的消息，持续的地缘政治和经济不确定 性推动了避险需求，提高了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，而白银同时得到工业需求支持。近期美国总统抨击美 联储威胁央行独立性，美欧关系恶化也加剧了市场避险情绪。1月23日美元走弱也推动贵金属市场上涨。1月23日 美元指数大幅回落、最终收跌1.88%，报97.51。1月23日，全球金属市场掀起一轮上涨高潮。最新数据显示美联 储1月28日议息会议宣布降息的可能性几乎为零，目前市场普遍预期今年美联储首次降息可能在6月。市场短线 做多金银热情提振，白银站上100美元/盎司历史关口，黄金也逼近5000美元/盎司大关，虽然长期仍然看好，但 短线可能波动加剧，交易所可能进一步要求提高保证金比例和限制开仓，多头继续持仓，注意控制风险。 数据来源：Wind，格林大华期货 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完 ...