Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for treasury bond futures is likely to be volatile with a slight bullish bias [1][2] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals reflected by PMI are favorable for the bond market, and the 1.85% yield of 10 - year treasury bond cash bonds may be the upper limit for some time. Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile with a slight bullish bias in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly lower, with minor declines in the morning session and recoveries in the afternoon, showing narrow - range horizontal fluctuations throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, and the 5 - year TF2512 and 2 - year TS2512 both fell 0.01% [1] - On Tuesday, the Wande All - A Index opened slightly lower, fluctuated downward continuously, and slightly rebounded at the end of the session, closing with a negative line. The trading volume was 1.94 trillion yuan, a slight decline from the previous trading day's 2.13 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 475.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [1] - On Tuesday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.43%, up from 1.42% in the previous trading day [1] - On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds rose by 0.90, 0.27, 0.40, and 0.45 basis points to 1.42%, 1.58%, 1.80%, and 2.14% respectively [1] - PBoC Deputy Governor Lu Lei stated on November 4 that the central bank will adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy support according to the economic and financial situation at home and abroad, implement various monetary policy tools, and release policy effects. This year, the central bank has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The central bank's 10 - month liquidity injection data shows that the net injection of treasury bond trading in the open market was 20 billion yuan, indicating the resumption of treasury bond trading operations. The central bank also announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation on November 5 [1] Market Logic - The PMI in October was 49.0%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month, with a larger decline than seasonal factors due to the double - holiday and external factors. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, the construction business activity index was 49.1%, and the service business activity index was 50.2%, showing a mild expansion. The fundamentals reflected by PMI are favorable for the bond market [2] - On October 27, the central bank governor stated that the bond market is operating well, and the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations directly boosted the bond market last week. The 1.85% yield of 10 - year treasury bond cash bonds may be the upper limit for some time [2] - With the overnight decline in US stocks and the narrow - range horizontal fluctuation of treasury bond futures on Tuesday, treasury bond futures may be volatile with a slight bullish bias in the short term [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] Report's Core View - The third round of price increase for coke has been recognized by the mainstream market due to the continuous rise in coking coal spot prices. However, as the downstream demand of steel mills enters the off - season and the molten iron output is expected to decline, the supply shortage in the coking coal spot market is expected to ease. The near - month contracts of coking coal and coke are seeing long - position reductions and price drops, while the far - month contracts are seeing short - position increases and price drops. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summary by Related Contents Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1253.0, down 2.45% compared to the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2601 closed at 1729.0, down 2.40% compared to the opening of the day session. In the night session yesterday, Jm2601 closed at 1259.0, up 0.48% compared to the day - session close; the J2601 contract closed at 1734.0, up 0.29% compared to the day - session close [1] Important News - The central bank announced that on November 5th, it conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months (91 days) to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [1] - On November 4th, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the coke procurement price for the third time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on November 5th, 2025 [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to adjust the delivery quality standards for coking coal and implement the new rules for newly listed contracts after the rule release. This adjustment includes modifying the scope and premium/discount of standard and substitute products for strength indicators, as well as the premium/discount for the substitute product scope of sulfur content indicators [1] Market Logic - The continuous rise in coking coal spot prices has led to cost - driven recognition of the third round of coke price increases in the mainstream market. Today's coking coal auction prices remain relatively strong. But with the downstream demand of steel mills entering the off - season and the expected decline in molten iron output, the supply shortage in the coking coal spot market is expected to ease. The near - month contracts of coking coal and coke are seeing long - position reductions and price drops, while the far - month contracts are seeing short - position increases and price drops [1] Trading Strategy - As coking coal prices start to decline significantly, coking coal and coke are considered bearish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the available inventory days of downstream coking and steel enterprises. After the end of environmental protection production restrictions, there may be a phased replenishment demand. Short positions this week can take profits at low prices to avoid the impact of supply - demand mismatches on the market caused by the concentrated resumption of production of steel mills next week [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The major indices of the two markets fell into adjustment again on Tuesday, with a large adjustment range for growth - type indices. The Shanghai Composite Index made a second bottom - probing at 3938 points, and the adjustment is basically over. The market is expected to fluctuate upwards and return above 4000 points. It is recommended to mainly allocate long positions of stock index futures based on the CSI 300 Index [1][3]. - ETF scale has skyrocketed by 2 trillion yuan this year, with various types of ETFs booming. The US data center projects have a total capacity of over 45 gigawatts and are expected to have a total investment of over 2.5 trillion US dollars, with major cloud providers as the main participants [2][3]. - The global energy industry needs an annual investment of up to 4 trillion US dollars due to the development of data centers and AI. China's capital may start a structural shift to stocks, and Chinese stocks are expected to have a more sustained upward trend [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the major indices of the two markets adjusted again, with large - scale adjustments in growth - type indices. The trading volume decreased during the adjustment, with a turnover of 1.91 trillion yuan. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4618 points, down 34 points (- 0.75%); the SSE 50 Index closed at 3012 points, down 3 points (- 0.11%); the CSI 500 Index closed at 7210 points, down 122 points (- 1.67%); the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7435 points, down 102 points (- 1.36%) [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, bank ETFs, semiconductor equipment ETFs, etc. led the gains, while South - Korea semiconductor ETFs, gold stock ETFs, etc. led the losses. Among sector indices, forestry, national banks, etc. led the gains, while precious metals, energy metals, etc. led the losses [1]. - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 25, 18, 14, and 5 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - On November 3, the scale of bond ETFs officially exceeded 70 billion yuan, with over 70% of the current scale being incremental in 2025, and over 60% of the 53 products being newly established this year [1]. - Citi's report on the Chinese consumer industry shows that the new gold tax rule may increase the gold procurement cost by up to 7% in the most extreme case, and the industry may raise prices, which may benefit leading enterprises [1]. - Microsoft's CEO said the AI industry lacks sufficient power rather than having excess computing power. Amazon Web Services (AWS) signed a 38 - billion - dollar (about 270 billion yuan) computing power contract with OpenAI for 7 years. Microsoft signed a 9.7 - billion - dollar AI cloud agreement with IREN [1]. - Google's parent company Alphabet plans to raise about 22 billion dollars in bonds. Meta is involved in a 27 - billion - dollar data - center joint - venture project [2]. - The CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said the global energy industry needs an annual investment of up to 4 trillion US dollars due to data centers and AI [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, lower than expected. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in October was flat at 50.0, showing a stagnant recovery. US corporate lay - offs reached nearly 950,000 by September, the highest since 2020 [2]. - A dovish Fed official called for more aggressive interest - rate cuts. A well - known Wall Street bull warned of excessive optimism in US stocks [2]. - The US President expressed a positive attitude towards US - China relations [2]. Market Logic - The major indices of the two markets adjusted again on Tuesday, with large - scale adjustments in growth - type indices. The Shanghai Composite Index made a second bottom - probing. ETF scale has skyrocketed this year, and the US is planning or building large - scale data - center projects [1][2]. - With the stock - market recovery, investor confidence has increased, driving up residents' property income. Goldman Sachs expects a more sustained upward trend in Chinese stocks [2][3]. Future Outlook - The major indices of the two markets adjusted again on Tuesday, with large - scale adjustments in growth - type indices. The Shanghai Composite Index made a second bottom - probing, and the adjustment is expected to end. Betting on AI is still correct, and the current AI boom is different from historical bubbles [1][3]. - The US data - center projects have a large scale, and the global energy industry needs huge investment. China's capital may shift to stocks, and Chinese stocks are expected to rise [2][3]. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, it is recommended to mainly allocate long positions based on the CSI 300 Index as the market is expected to rise [3]. - For stock index option trading, it is advisable to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 300 Index [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal (coking coal and coke) sector is "Oscillating with a Bearish Bias" [1] 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that the coking coal and coke markets will oscillate with a bearish bias in the short term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Conditions - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1284.5, down 0.12% from the day - session opening; the main coke contract J2601 closed at 1771.5, down 0.31% from the day - session opening. During the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1287.5, up 0.23% from the day - session close; J2601 closed at 1779.0, up 0.42% from the day - session close [1] Important News - The Ministry of Finance has newly established a Debt Management Department, responsible for formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, etc [1] - Shanxi Jianlong began to overhaul a 1080m³ blast furnace on November 1st, affecting daily hot metal production by about 0.42 million tons. After that, it will overhaul a 1380m³ blast furnace. From November 1st to 5th, two rebar rolling lines were shut down, affecting daily output by about 0.7 million tons. After the bar production resumes, the plate output will decrease [1] - Heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency responses were launched in cities in Hebei such as Tangshan, Qian'an, etc. starting from 18:00 on November 3rd [1] Market Logic - Yesterday, the coking coal spot market had strong transactions. The supply of coking coal tightened, and traders were hoarding and reluctant to sell. For coke, the rapid rise in costs has promoted the third round of price increases, which are expected to be implemented soon. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production dropped significantly, but the tight supply of raw materials and the downstream's need to maintain production inventory support the strong prices of raw materials. However, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly yesterday, rising sharply at the opening and then回调. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the upper pressure on coking coal and coke remains at 1320, and they should be regarded as oscillating with a bearish bias [1]

Report Summary 1. Core View - Multiple positive factors are concentrated, and Laibo leads the protein sector [1] - Due to import cost increase and low rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory, it is recommended to gradually take profits on early low - position long orders and not chase high for new orders. Meanwhile, be aware of the expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter [7] 2. Key Points by Category Import Cost - After the details of the fifth round of China - US economic and trade negotiations were released, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans before January next year and guarantee an annual purchase of 25 million tons for three years. The US soybean futures price has effectively stood above 1100 cents and is expected to reach 1200 cents [7] Inventory Status - As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 0.0 million tons, the same as last week and compared with 743,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 800,000 tons. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 800,000 tons, the same as last week; the contract volume was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from last week, a 17.65% decline [7] Supply Outlook - The expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter (29 million tons) have gradually dispelled the expectation of supply shortage in the first quarter [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View The report points out that there are multiple positive factors in the protein sector, with Laibo leading the rise. However, there are also risks such as the expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter, which makes the supply - shortage expectation in the first quarter gradually fade. It is recommended to gradually take profits on early low - position long orders and not to chase high for new orders [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Positive Factors - **Import cost increase**: After the details of the fifth round of China - US economic and trade negotiations were released, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans before January next year and guarantee an annual purchase of 25 million tons of US soybeans for three years. The US soybean futures price has effectively stood above 1100 cents and is expected to reach 1200 cents [7]. - **Ultra - low rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories**: As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 0.0 million tons, the same as last week and compared with 743,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 800,000 tons. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 800,000 tons, the same as last week; the contract volume was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from last week, a 17.65% month - on - month decline [7]. Risks - **Expected increase in soybean arrivals**: The expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply (29 million tons) in the fourth quarter make the supply - shortage expectation in the first quarter gradually fade [7]. Recommendations - **Trading advice**: Gradually take profits on early low - position long orders and do not chase high for new orders [7].

Group 1 - The report is a data flash on the weekly inventory data of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port [1] - As of October 31, the inventory of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 236.77 tons, with a slight inventory accumulation of 22 tons [3] - The table shows the inventory and month - on - month changes of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port from July 10, 2025, to October 31, 2025 [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The downstream performance of methanol is not strong during the peak season. This week, the port inventory decreased slightly while the production area inventory increased. With the MTO economy being squeezed and some devices at risk of shutting down in November, and the domestic and imported supplies expected to remain high, the short - term methanol price will fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 2100 - 2230 yuan/ton. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 15 - spread reverse arbitrage should be held [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract dropped 46 yuan to 2156 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell 33 yuan to 2157 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 20,369 lots to 783,800 lots, and short positions increased by 17,233 lots to 1,034,600 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 86.7%, a 1.2% increase from the previous period; the overseas methanol operating rate is 70.6%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous period [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 150.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 million tons, while that in South China increased by 2.40 million tons. The inventory of Chinese sample methanol production enterprises is 37.61 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons, a 4.36% increase from the previous period [1] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 5.13 million tons, a decrease of 1.17 million tons from the previous period. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 21.56 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous period. The olefin operating rate is 91.2%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.8%, a 0.5% increase from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 69.7%, a 3.2% decrease from the previous period; the acetic acid operating rate is 73.4%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the formaldehyde operating rate is 40.2%, a 2% increase from the previous period; the MTBE operating rate is 67.9%, a 0.1% increase from the previous period [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, meeting market expectations and the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] Market Logic - The downstream of methanol shows a weak performance in the peak season. This week, the port inventory decreased slightly while the production area inventory increased. The import volume in September was 142.69 million tons, a 18.9% decrease from the previous period. The MTO economy is squeezed, and some devices may shut down in November. With the domestic and imported supplies expected to remain high, the short - term methanol price will fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 2100 - 2230 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 15 - spread reverse arbitrage should be held [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The yield of treasury bonds has reached a short - term peak, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield at 1.85% may be the top in the future. Treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term [6][37]. - The overall economic situation in October shows that the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line, the non - manufacturing business activity index is slightly above the boom - bust line, and the real estate market is still at the bottom, which is generally favorable for the bond market [9][24][32]. 3. Summary by Related Content Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, treasury bond futures rose continuously throughout the week. After the central bank governor announced the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading on October 27, treasury bond futures jumped significantly higher on Tuesday. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 1.43%, the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.62%, the 5 - year treasury bond rose 0.43%, and the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.21% [4]. - The yield curve of treasury bond cash bonds shifted downward in parallel. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 9BP, 5BP, 5BP, and 7BP respectively from October 24 to October 31 [6]. Manufacturing PMI - In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month. Affected by the double - holiday and external factors, the decline was larger than the seasonal factor. The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises showed different trends, with large enterprises slightly below the boom - bust line, medium - sized enterprises remaining stable, and small enterprises facing greater pressure [9]. - The production index in October was 49.7%, and the new order index was 48.8%, indicating a slowdown in production and a decline in market demand. However, new - energy - related industries such as equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing remained in the expansion range [12]. - The new export order index in October was 45.9%, and the import index was 46.8%, both showing a decline. It is expected that the new export order index will rebound significantly in November due to the Sino - US summit [14]. - The purchase price index of major raw materials in October was 52.5%, and the ex - factory price index was 47.5%. It is expected that the PPI in October will decline by about 2.3% year - on - year, the same as in September [17]. - The raw material inventory index in October was 47.3%, and the finished product inventory index was 48.1%. Manufacturing enterprises continued to be cautious about increasing inventory [20]. - The manufacturing employment index in October was 48.3%, and the production and business activity expectation index was 52.8%, showing a slight decline in the expectation of future prosperity [22]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - In October, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%. The construction business activity index was 49.1%, and the service business activity index was 50.2%, showing a mild expansion [24]. - The new order index of the construction industry in October was 45.9%, and the employment index was 39.9%. The business activity expectation index was 56.0%, indicating a slight decline in the construction industry's prosperity [27]. - The new order index of the service industry in October was 46.0%, and the employment index was 46.1%. The business activity expectation index was 56.1%. Some industries such as railway transportation and aviation transportation were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as insurance and real estate were below the critical point [29]. Real Estate Market - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in October decreased by 25% year - on - year, and the decline widened. The national commercial housing sales are still at the bottom, and it is expected that the real estate development investment in October will still contract significantly, dragging down the construction industry [32]. Capital Market - This week, the short - term capital interest rate first rose and then fell, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate also declined [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: Short - term, new grain harvest brings supply pressure, focus on North China's weather impact; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season drivers; long - term, follow import substitution + planting cost pricing logic. Consider low - buying opportunities for the 2601 contract [5]. - Pig: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, near - month contracts focus on basis repair; mid - term, pig prices may enter a bottom - grinding stage; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to be realized. Suggest waiting and seeing for near - month contracts and being cautious about far - month contracts [11][12]. - Egg: Short - term, egg prices are under pressure and supported; mid - term, supply exceeds demand, prices may run in a low - level range; long - term, wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [17][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - **Important Information**: On October 31, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the Northeast rose by 4 yuan/ton to 2001 yuan/ton, and were stable in North China at 2169 yuan/ton; port prices in Jinzhou rose by 10 yuan/ton to 2060 - 2090 yuan/ton, and were stable in Shekou at 2285 yuan/ton; the number of futures warehouse receipts was 63966; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong widened to + 380 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, new grain supply pressure exists, spot is weakly stable, pay attention to North China's weather. Mid - term, trade in a wide range. Long - term, follow import substitution + planting cost pricing and focus on policies [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a mid - long - term range trading strategy. Focus on low - buying opportunities for the 2601 contract after callback, with the first support at 2100, the second at 2050 - 2080; the first pressure at 2150, the second at 2160 - 2170. For the 2603 contract, support is at 2120 - 2130 [6]. Pig - **Important Information**: On October 31, the national average pig price was 12.44 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg. In September, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%. As of October 30, the average slaughter weight was 124.66 kg, up 0.06 kg from the previous week. The price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.36 yuan/jin [11]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, near - month contracts focus on basis repair. Mid - term, pig prices may enter a bottom - grinding stage. Long - term, pig production capacity will continue to be realized [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - month contracts, wait and see after closing short positions. For far - month contracts, pay attention to sow inventory changes. For the 2601 contract, the pressure at 12500 is verified, and support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2603 contract, the pressure at 11800 - 12000 is verified, and support is at 11000 - 11200; for the 2605 contract, the pressure at 12200 - 12300 is verified, and support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2607 contract, support is at 12000 [13]. Egg - **Important Information**: On October 31, the average egg price in the main production areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, stable; in the main sales areas, it was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. On October 30, the production - link inventory was 1.05 days, stable; the circulation - link inventory was 1.11 days, up 0.01 days. On October 31, the average price of old hens was 4.18 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. In September, the number of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% and a year - on - year increase of 6.05%. The estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% [17]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, egg prices are under pressure and supported. Mid - term, supply exceeds demand, prices may run in a low - level range. Long - term, wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions. Wait and see. If inventory levels continue to rise, consider shorting the 2512 contract with pressure at 3180 - 3200. Mid - long - term, determine the trading direction based on culling behavior [19].