Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 | 52 | 元至 | 6260 | 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 | 6300 | 元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | （-150），华南瓶片价格 | 6300 | 元/吨（-190）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 77 | 手至 | 6.04 | 万手，空头持仓减少 | 590 | 手至 | 6.5 | 万手。 | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | 30.46 | 万吨，环比-2.07 | 万吨。 | | | | | | | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 1 月 28 日星期周三 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1 月 27 日，地缘政治紧张，国际原油上涨预期加强，生柴概念再起，植物油板块延 续上涨。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8258 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.39%，日增仓 | | | | | 5418 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8172 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.42%，日增 | | | | | 仓 11101 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9238 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.61%，日增 | | | | | 仓 15902 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日星期三 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 3 元至 1790 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 10 元至 1750 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1728 手至 24.88 万手，空头持仓减 少 6018 手至 26.58 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 1、供应方面，1 月 26 日，尿素行业日产 20.94 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.46 万吨； 较去年同期增加 1.47 万吨；今日开工率 88.95%，较去年同期 86.94%回升 2.01%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 94.60 万吨，较上周减少 4.01 万吨，环比减 少 4.07%。尿素港口样本库存量 13. ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日星期三 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.91%报 5179.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 2.73%报 112.34 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.28%报 1142 元/克，沪银收跌 2.42%报 27702 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 27 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 0.85 吨， 当前持仓量为 1087.38 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 126.86 吨，当前持仓量为 15847.54 吨。 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、上周（1 月 19 日-1 月 25 日），10 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积总 | | | | 计 | 117.04 万平方米，环比下降 3%，同比下降 33.8%。 | | | | | 2、2025 年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 73982.0 亿元，比上年增长 0.6%。 | | | | | 3、2025 年，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现利润总额 1098.3 亿元，同比增长 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 299.2%。 | | | | | 4、2025 年冰洗市场整体规模达 2489.6 亿元，处于近十年高位水平。其中，2025 | | | | | 年冰箱产业零售额达 1271 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 ，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 周二国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，多数全天横向窄幅波动，30 年期品种回调较 多，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.33%，10 年期 T2603 持平， | | | | 5 年期 TF2603 持平，2 年期 TS2603 持平。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 4020 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 3240 亿元逆 | | | | 回购到期，当日合计净投放 780 亿元。 | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率有所回落，DR001 全天加 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE3 | 月合约结算价 | 63.83 | 涨 | 86 | 点，5 | 月 | 65.45 | 涨 | 77 | 点，7 | 月 | 67.01 | 涨 | 71 | 点；成 | 交约 | 7.1 | 万手。 | | 郑棉总成交 | 344386 | 持仓 | 1117427。结算价 | 5 | 月 | 14585，9 | 月 | 14720，1 | 月 | 15085。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | 1、1 | 月 | 23 | 日新疆巴州区域机采棉 | 3129B | 含杂 | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is on a downward trend due to consecutive wrong policies in the US [4]. - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasuries, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic News - Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warns that the US is like a powder keg on the verge of civil war, having deeply entered the "pre - collapse stage" and at risk of entering the sixth stage marked by the collapse of the existing order [1]. - Emerging market stock and bond ETFs have seen a total of $6.83 billion in capital inflows, with Chinese - related ETFs being the most favored. $1.65 billion flowed into the Chinese market last week [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace has deployed the Tongyi Qianwen Qwen3 large - model to the "Star Computing" Plan 01 group space computing center, the world's first deployment of a general large - model to an orbiting satellite [1]. - Microsoft has released its second - generation self - developed AI chip Maia 200, marking significant progress in its self - developed chip field [1]. - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announced the launch of the server CPU "Vera" to solve the CPU bottleneck in the AI supply chain [1]. - If the imbalance between supply and demand of memory chips persists until the first half of 2027, it may be an opportunity for Chinese manufacturers to narrow the technological gap [1]. - Samsung and SK Hynix doubled the price of low - power DRAM supplied to Apple in Q1, and prices may rise further in the second half of the year [1]. - Zijin Mining acquired Allied Gold for $28 billion, with Allied Gold having 533 tons of gold resources as of the end of 2024 [1]. Global Economic Logic - The US is facing a high risk of civil war, and the global political order has entered a chaotic period, bringing great uncertainty to the global economy [2]. - There are speculations about the possibility of a "Plaza Accord 2.0", and the uncertainty of the Fed is expected to peak from July to November 2026, which may lead to a "flight from US assets" [2]. - The Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and purchase $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [2]. - The decline in gambling revenue in Las Vegas is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2]. - The US will adjust its economic relations with China and revive its economic autonomy [2]. - The K - shaped differentiation of consumers in the US is intensifying, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are cutting back [2]. - TSMC's capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a significant increase of 27% - 37% year - on - year, indicating the continued AI boom [2]. - SpaceX hopes to achieve full rocket reusability this year, which will reduce the cost of space access by 100 times [2].

Group 1: Market Performance - Tuesday saw pressure on the market at the opening with selling, followed by a surge in buying as pressure eased in the afternoon, leading to a quick rebound in growth - related indices and then renewed selling pressure. The semiconductor sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 2.89 trillion yuan, showing a contraction compared to the previous period. The CSI 500 index closed at 8,548 points, up 42 points or 0.50%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 8,382 points, up 16 points or 0.20%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3,052 points, up 2 points or 0.09%; while the SSE 300 index closed at 4,705 points, down 1 point or - 0.03% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, those related to Sino - Korean semiconductors, science - innovation semiconductors, etc. led the gains, while vaccine, coal, and agricultural ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices of the two markets, automotive chips, cultivated diamonds, etc. led the gains, and coke processing, aquaculture, etc. led the losses [1]. - Net inflows of settlement funds into CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index stock - index futures were 2.8 billion and 1.1 billion yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Important Information - China's commercial space industry faces challenges of urgent satellite applications and insufficient launch capacity. The keys to success are technological innovation (reusable rockets), efficiency improvement (batch production), and industrial ecosystem improvement. Current difficulties include limited launch sites, restricted resources, and insufficient application scenarios [1]. - The cost of the first - stage rocket body accounts for over 70%. Once reusable technology is achieved, the total rocket launch cost can be reduced by 40% - 60%. In 2026, many commercial rockets like Lijian - 2 and Tianlong - 3 are planned to be launched, with more attempts at reusable rockets to narrow the technological gap [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace deployed Tongyi Qianwen Qwen3 large - model to the "Star Computing" Plan 01 group space computing center, the world's first deployment of a general large - model from the ground to an in - orbit satellite. The whole process of uploading problems to the satellite, in - orbit reasoning by the large - model, and data return to the ground takes less than 2 minutes [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace announced a large - scale "Star Computing" Plan to deploy 2,400 inference - computing satellites and 400 training - computing satellites into 500 - 1000 km orbits, forming a global training - inference computing power network through satellite - to - ground and inter - satellite laser communication networking [1]. - The "Star Computing" Plan aims to achieve a constellation of over a thousand satellites and commercial operation by 2030, with over 95% being inference - computing satellites and on - orbit verification of large - scale training - computing satellites, and full constellation deployment by 2035, mainly serving silicon - based intelligent agents and AI model inference and training in land, sea, air, and space fields [1][2]. - Emerging market stock and bond ETFs had a total net inflow of $6.83 billion, continuing the 14 - week consecutive inflow trend, though slightly lower than the previous week. Chinese - related ETFs were the most favored, with $1.65 billion flowing into the Chinese market that week [2]. - TianShu Intelligence, a general GPU company, released a four - generation architecture roadmap, aiming to create a new paradigm of AI++ computing power system with the goal of "high - quality computing power" centered on "efficiency, predictability, and sustainability", and expects to surpass NVIDIA's Rubin architecture in 2027 [2]. - If the imbalance between supply and demand of memory chips persists until the first half of 2027, it could be an opportunity for Chinese manufacturers to narrow the technological gap as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron cannot meet global demand, but Chinese competitors may erode their advantages after the market cools down [2]. - Zijin Mining acquired United Gold for 28 billion yuan. United Gold's core assets include the Sadiola Gold Mine in Mali, a gold complex in Ivory Coast, and the Kurmuk Gold Mine in Ethiopia to be put into production in the second half of 2026. As of the end of 2024, United Gold had 533 tons of gold resources with an average grade of 1.48 grams per ton [2]. - Microsoft launched its second - generation self - developed AI chip Maia 200, a key step to reduce dependence on NVIDIA chips and more efficiently drive its own services. The chip, manufactured by TSMC using 3 - nanometer technology, has been deployed in a data center in Iowa, marking significant progress in Microsoft's self - developed chip field [2]. - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the US is like a powder keg on the verge of civil war, deeply in the "pre - collapse stage" with poor financial conditions and internal conflicts, and at risk of entering the sixth stage marked by the collapse of the existing order through civil war or revolution [2]. Group 3: Market Logic - The market situation on Tuesday was characterized by initial selling pressure, followed by a rebound in growth - related indices as buying emerged, and then renewed selling. Guoxing Aerospace's deployment of the large - model to the space computing center, the upcoming maturity of over 50 trillion yuan in long - term fixed - deposits of residents in 2026, SpaceX's plan to achieve full rocket reusability, and high - profile statements from financial institutions all influenced the market [1][2][3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that profit growth will be the core support for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2026, expecting A - share corporate profit growth to increase from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027, driven by AI, overseas expansion, and "anti - involution" [2]. - UBS indicates that international investors are accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. The proportion of Chinese assets held by the top 40 international investment institutions tracked by UBS has reached a new high since 2023, and active overseas funds have started to increase their positions in Chinese assets [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - In 2026, over 50 trillion yuan in long - term fixed - deposits of residents will mature. Portfolio products like FOF and fund investment advisors are expected to be the preferred choices for banks to absorb the matured funds due to their risk - diversification and relatively stable returns [3]. - SpaceX plans to launch the second - generation Starlink cellular system in 2027, aiming for satellite - direct connection services similar to 5G on the ground, requiring the launch of 15,000 new satellites. The system's capacity will increase by over 100 times, and data throughput will increase by over 20 times [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that in 2026, the net inflow of new capital into the Chinese stock market will exceed 3 trillion yuan, including about 2 trillion yuan from individual investors and over 1 trillion yuan from institutional investors [3]. - UBS's communication with overseas clients has heated up. Trading - oriented investors are actively increasing their positions in Chinese assets, and allocation - oriented investors are optimizing the weight of Chinese assets in their global portfolios while monitoring fundamentals and policy implementation [3]. - UBS Wealth Management's Investment Director's Office believes that the upward trend of the Chinese market is likely to continue in 2026, with advanced manufacturing and technological self - reliance becoming new growth engines. Global funds are increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, and AI capabilities, valuation attractiveness, and resilience are the common logics. The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds into the Chinese capital market [3]. - The RMB is appreciating rapidly, with the offshore RMB exchange rate reaching 6.94, indicating a large - scale return of US dollars hoarded overseas by foreign - trade enterprises. After the New Year's Day, funds are flowing from enterprise accounts to resident accounts and then to securities accounts [3]. - Driven by the wealth effect, a large amount of off - market funds is still flowing in. After continuous selling, the scale of CSI 500 ETF held by policy funds, which was a little over 100 billion yuan, showed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday. Market funds may choose the CSI 500 index, representing mid - cap stocks, as a breakthrough point for an upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are still favored in the long - term [3]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - For stock - index futures directional trading, after continuous selling, the selling pressure of policy - held CSI 500 ETF showed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday. Market funds may choose the CSI 500 index, representing mid - cap stocks, as a breakthrough point for an upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are still favored in the long - term [3]. - For stock - index option trading, consider buying far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 1000 index [3].