1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, the US biodiesel policy boosts global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil stop falling and rebound, while rapeseed oil bottoms out and stabilizes. With the US interest - rate cut, the financial attributes of vegetable oils are enhanced, and it is advisable to adopt a long - term bullish strategy of buying on dips for soybean and palm oils, and hold short - term long positions for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength [2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the near - month contracts should be treated with a rebound mindset, and the opportunity to lay out new short positions for the 09 contracts should be awaited after the rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Vegetable Oils Market Performance - On January 22, vegetable oils continued their strong trend with a large inflow of funds. Palm oil led the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased compared to the previous day, with corresponding increases in positions [1]. Important Information - On January 21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to supply concerns, with the more active March contract up $0.26 or 0.4% to $60.62 per barrel [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas in early March, and the EPA is considering setting biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1]. - Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1]. - Indian buyers locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - From January 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, while exports increased by 11.4% [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters from 2025 [1]. - As of the 3rd weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 38,300 tons week - on - week, a 1.79% decrease [2]. Market Logic - Externally, the US biodiesel policy makes US soybean oil oscillate strongly. In Malaysia, good export data and concerns about supply boost palm oil prices. Domestically, soybean oil news is mixed, palm oil benefits from the US biodiesel policy and improved export data, and rapeseed oil follows related oils in a wide - range oscillation [2]. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, continue to hold existing long positions in soybean and palm oils, and slightly enter long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2]. - For arbitrage, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance - On January 22, due to pre - festival stockpiling, soybean meal inventory decreased, and previous short positions left the market, resulting in a technical rebound. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all increased compared to the previous day, with corresponding changes in positions [2]. Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment ahead of schedule [3]. - In January 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3]. - StoneX predicts that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate [3]. - As of January 16, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, faster than the same period in previous years [3]. - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the growth status was good [3]. - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean export volume will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from last year [3]. - As of the 3rd weekend of 2026, China's imported soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories also changed [3]. - The January 13 import soybean auction had a 100% transaction rate [3]. Market Logic - Externally, slow South American soybean harvests strengthen US soybean futures prices. Domestically, oil - mill prices rise with the market, and downstream buyers are active in stockpiling. The impact of Sino - Canadian trade relations on rapeseed meal supply and demand is limited in the short term. With short - position funds leaving the market, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal rebounds, but the overall bullish sentiment is cautious [4]. Trading Strategy - Operate the 05 contracts of double - meal with a rebound mindset, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions for the 09 contracts after the rebound. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4]. - There is currently no arbitrage strategy [4].

Group 1 - Report title: "Market Flash - Cost Support Drove BR to a Strong Limit Up Last Night" [2] - Report date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Li Fanglei [4] - Contact information: 19339940612 [4] - Futures trading consultation number: Z0021311 [4] Group 2 - The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber (BR) was 12,930 yuan/ton last night, with a strong limit up [3] - Since December 2025, the BR futures price has been rising driven by butadiene [3] - Recently, due to limited arrival of imported ships and high operating rates of downstream products, the port inventory of butadiene has significantly decreased, reflecting the strong fundamentals of butadiene [3] - In the medium term, there will be no new butadiene production plants put into operation in the first half of this year, increasing concerns about supply shortages [3] - Recently, funds have rapidly flowed into the energy and chemical sector, boosting rubber varieties [3] - The limit up of butadiene rubber last night was mainly due to the combined effect of raw materials and funds, and its own supply - demand situation has not changed significantly [3] - In the short term, the tight supply of butadiene is expected to boost the BR price, and traders should be vigilant against the callback risk after the release of emotions [3]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 23 日星期五 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE3 | 月合约结算价 | 63.88 | 跌 | 42 | 点，5 | 月 | 65.49 | 跌 | 43 | 点，7 | 月 | 66.97 | 跌 | 43 | 点；成 | 交约 | 5.8 | 万手。 | | 郑棉总成交 | 395 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5814 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.48%。硅铁主力合约 | | | | | SF2603 收于 5610 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.97%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， | | | | | 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。今年降准降息还有一定 | | | | | 的空间。 | | | | | 2、本周，523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 89.3%，环比增 0.9%。原煤日均产量 | | 黑色 | 硅铁、 | 区间震荡 | 199.4 万吨，环比增 1.7 万吨，原煤库存 560.5 万吨，环比增 10.6 万吨 | | | 锰硅 | | 3、广东 20%左右的短流程钢企将在 1 月中下旬左右开始陆 ...

2. 基本面：苯乙烯的国内外装置意外扰动增多，下游利润回升后采购量持续（节前备货），库存下降，供需错配逻辑较为明确；纯苯进 口因美韩套利窗口打开存下降预期，港口库存有望出现拐点，且山东炼厂货源持续紧张，下游除苯乙烯外并未出现大范围减产，供需格 局逐渐改善中。 3. 资金情况：化工板块具备低估值，供需格局健康的品种受到市场资金青睐，如PTA化纤链条"反内卷"供给侧受限，纯苯/苯乙烯阶段性 供需错配。 操作建议：老多单继续持有或用期权做利润保护，新多单等待回调布局。 Ø 纯苯/苯乙烯：截至1月23日收盘，苯乙烯主力合约涨幅近3%；纯苯主力合约涨幅约2.5%，1月以来价格重心不断抬升。 主要受以下几方面原因影响： 1. 消息面：华北某30万吨苯乙烯装置着火停车，约15-20天，配套上游加氢苯装置同步停车；华北某45万吨苯乙烯装置推迟重启计划； 海外巴斯夫55万吨苯乙烯装置降幅；2月下，苯乙烯欧洲成交超过1万吨。 市场快讯---多头氛围浓厚，纯苯苯乙烯大幅拉涨 2026年1月23日 风险因素：原油大幅下跌 下游负反馈加重 宏观情绪转弱 数据来源：wind 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四铁矿夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月新能源汽车产量 179.1 万辆，同比增长 8.7%； | | | | | 1-12 月产量 1652.4 万辆，同比增长 25.1%。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月，中国原煤产量为 43703.5 万吨，同比下降 | | | | | 1.0%；1-12 月累计产量 483178.2 万吨，同比增长 1.2%。从分省数据来看，2025 | | | | | 年 1-12 月山西、内蒙古和陕西原煤产量累计同比分别增长 2.1%、-1.0%和 2.9%。 | | | | | 3、2026 年 1 月 22 日，国家统计局最新数据显示，2025 年 12 月，我国挖掘机 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The United States' return to the Monroe Doctrine and its global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Global Economy - Huang Renxun stated that AI will bring the largest infrastructure construction boom in history, driving trillions of dollars in new investments [1] - South Korea's semiconductor exports in the first 20 days of this year reached $10.73 billion, a year - on - year increase of over 70%, indicating strong global semiconductor demand [1] - AI is driving a "K - shaped" recovery in the semiconductor industry, with upstream AI storage chip manufacturers benefiting and downstream PC and mobile phone manufacturers facing cost - transfer pressure [1] - The US is causing global political and economic uncertainties through actions like attempting to control Venezuelan oil and investigating the Fed Chair. The Fed's uncertainty is expected to peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and is buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, expanding its balance sheet [2] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to revitalize its economic autonomy [2] - Consumer K - shaped differentiation in the US is intensifying, with high - income consumers maintaining spending and middle - and low - income families tightening their belts [2] - Japan's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.18% [2] - Google plans to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years to meet AI service demand [2] - TSMC's capital expenditure in 2026 is estimated to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27% - 37%, signaling the continuation of the AI boom [2] Other - Wall Street's re - calibration of storage giants' valuations is driving the rise of the US stock storage sector, with many brokerages raising target prices for SanDisk and Micron [1] - Musk is advancing SpaceX's IPO plan, aiming to complete it by July this year, and China's first offshore liquid rocket launch and recovery test platform is under construction in Shandong [1] - JPMorgan CEO warns that Trump's proposed credit card interest rate cap could cause an "economic disaster" [1] - Temu's global market share has soared from less than 1% to 24%, matching Amazon, and Chinese cross - border e - commerce is breaking through with "full -托管 mode" and supply - chain advantages [1] - Trump is looking for a candidate for a position who can lower long - term borrowing costs, with Rieder and Waller being strong choices [1]

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格上涨 49 元至 5876 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 5765 元/吨（环比+75），山东地区现货价格 5740 元/吨（环比+170）。持仓方面， 多头减少 520 手 ...

Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 16 元至 6088 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6100 元/吨 （+20），华南瓶片价格 6090 元/吨（+10）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 65 手至 5.83 万手，空头持仓减少 262 手至 5.96 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.53 万吨，环比-0.94 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 70.2%，环比-2.03%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5588 元， 环比-3.7 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-98 元/吨，环比+67 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 11 元至 1779 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 10 元至 1740 元/吨。持 ...