Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 | | 8、截止到 环比下降 比下降 | 3.83 万吨， 万吨，环 万吨，环比 | | 2026 年第 3 周末，国内三大食用油库存总量为 210.34 万吨，周度下降 1.79%，同比增加 5.10%。其中豆油库存为 114.04 万吨，周度下降 6.88 5.69%，同比增加 13.38%；食用棕油库存为 65.38 万吨，周度增加 1.64 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 增加 同比下降 | 4.78%， | | 2.57%，同比增加 46.20%；菜油库存为 30.91 万吨，周度增加 1.41 万吨，环比增加 43.64%。 | | | | 元/吨；基差 | 现货方面：截止 | 1 月 23 日，张家港豆油现货均价 8590 元/吨，环比下跌 30 | | | 496 | 元/吨，基 | | 元/吨，环比下跌 40 元/吨；广东棕榈油现货均价 8980 元/吨，环比上涨 130 | | | 差 36 | | | 元/吨，环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy has passed its peak and is moving downward due to continuous wrong - policies in the US [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Economic News - Musk said SpaceX hopes to achieve full rocket reusability this year, reducing space access cost by 100 times to under $100 per pound [1][2] - SpaceX plans to launch the second - generation cellular Starlink system in 2027, with capacity over 100 times and data throughput over 20 times higher than the current one, after technical preparations [1] - Musk discussed plans to launch solar AI satellites in the next few years, stating that space is the cheapest place for AI deployment and it could be realized in 2 - 3 years [1] - The limiting factor for AI deployment is energy. AI chip production grows exponentially, but power supply only grows 4 - 5% annually, except in China [1] - Musk said a 100 - mile - square solar panel area could power the US, and SpaceX and Tesla aim to build 100 GW solar manufacturing capacity in the US in about three years [1] - Fudan University released fiber chips, which may break through bottlenecks in the brain - machine interface field [1] - A $280 - million trading volume pushed Japan's $72 - trillion treasury bond market to the verge of collapse [1] - The US President said he would "strongly retaliate" if European countries sell US assets in response to tariff threats [1] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The US's actions like trying to control Venezuelan oil and buying Greenland bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - The US prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, with expected uncertainty from July to November 2026 and a possible "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, buy $40 billion short - term bonds monthly, and expand its balance sheet [2] - High - end consumer spending in the US remains resilient, but middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.30% [2] - TSMC's 2026 capital expenditure is estimated to be $52 - 56 billion, a significant increase of 27 - 37% year - on - year, signaling a continued AI boom [2] 3.3 Impact of US Policy - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [3]

市场快讯---COMEX白银站上100美元/盎司 2026年1月24日 1月23日COMEX白银期货收涨7.15%，报103.26美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货收涨1.42%，报4983.10美元/盎 司。美欧围绕格林兰岛争执放缓之后，又传出美国正调集重兵前往伊朗的消息，持续的地缘政治和经济不确定 性推动了避险需求，提高了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，而白银同时得到工业需求支持。近期美国总统抨击美 联储威胁央行独立性，美欧关系恶化也加剧了市场避险情绪。1月23日美元走弱也推动贵金属市场上涨。1月23日 美元指数大幅回落、最终收跌1.88%，报97.51。1月23日，全球金属市场掀起一轮上涨高潮。最新数据显示美联 储1月28日议息会议宣布降息的可能性几乎为零，目前市场普遍预期今年美联储首次降息可能在6月。市场短线 做多金银热情提振，白银站上100美元/盎司历史关口，黄金也逼近5000美元/盎司大关，虽然长期仍然看好，但 短线可能波动加剧，交易所可能进一步要求提高保证金比例和限制开仓，多头继续持仓，注意控制风险。 数据来源：Wind，格林大华期货 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Expected to Fluctuate Widely" [2] - Date of Report: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Certificate Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to show a volatile trend. Short - term long positions are recommended, but the upside space is expected to be limited. Long - term holding is not advised, and stop - losses should be set. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3050, and the resistance level is 3200. The support level for the iron ore main contract is 770, and the resistance level is 830 [4]. Group 4: Steel Market Analysis Supply - This week, the total supply of the five major steel products was 819.59 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The output structure of steel products has differentiated, with an increase in building materials production and a decrease in plate and coil production. Rebar production increased by 9.25 tons this week, mainly due to the resumption of some production lines in central China. Hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly by 2.55 tons due to a steel mill's maintenance in North China and slow output recovery in East China [11][20]. Demand - From the perspective of winter storage demand, downstream winter storage willingness is average, mostly with a cautious attitude, and the winter storage volume may decrease compared to last year. The current market's psychological winter storage price is concentrated at 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price. In terms of rigid demand, the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has limited room for further improvement. As the pre - holiday demand seasonally weakens, the inventory pressure on steel products may further accumulate. Currently, there is no obvious driver for the finished product prices, and they fluctuate following the raw material prices [4]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1257.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.07 tons, an increase of 0.8%. Building materials showed inventory accumulation of 14.87 tons, while plates showed inventory reduction of 4.8 tons. Rebar inventory in steel mills increased by 6.32 tons, with significant increases in central and northern China. In terms of social inventory, rebar inventory increased in East, South, and North China, with the most obvious increase in North China. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased in the north and increased in the other two major regions, with the most obvious inventory reduction in central China [11][20]. Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis Supply - This week, iron ore prices first fell and then rebounded, with the main contract falling below 800. The global iron ore shipments decreased, and the arrival volume also declined. Domestic mine output increased, and the inventory of imported iron ore at ports continued to accumulate. From January 12th to 18th, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2897.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2659.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1442.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 tons. The total global iron ore shipments were 2929.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 16555.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 279.84 tons [4][24]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output this week was 228.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.9% [4]. Group 6: Winter Storage Analysis Time and Cycle - Winter storage usually starts from late November to mid - December (about 8 weeks before the Spring Festival) and ends in early March of the following year (about 4 weeks after the Spring Festival), with a cycle of about 12 weeks [14]. Policy Price and Basis - The current winter storage policy price is 3050 - 3150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 30~+30 yuan/ton. According to Mysteel's research, the winter storage willingness of traders is only 42%. Steel mills have few policies, mainly post - settlement/price - setting [17].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 美国流动性冲击利多中国A股 2026年1月23日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 1月20日周二晚，美国遭遇股债汇三杀 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 本次流动性冲击的震源是日本长债收益率的飙升，源于日本政府激进的财政政策，减半征收 食品消费税，投资者质疑日本财政的可持续性，抛售日本长债 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 2019-01-04 2020-01-04 2021-01-04 2022-01-04 2023-01-04 2024-01-04 2025-01-04 2026-01-04 日本40年期国债收益率（%） -0.500 -0.250 0.000 0.250 0.500 0.750 1.000 1.250 1.500 1.750 2.000 2.250 2.500 2019-10-01 2020-10-01 2021-10-01 20 ...

格林大华期货 我们专注期货研究 2026年01月23日 08:55 星期五 研究院《市场快讯 -- 成本支撑带动昨夜BR强势涨停》 昨夜丁二烯橡胶（BR）主力合约强势涨停，收盘价12930元/吨。丁二烯作为BR最 主要的原料来源，其价格直接影响BR期现价格走势。自25年12月以来，BR期价便在 丁二烯的带动下持续走强。近期受进口船货到港有限和下游产品开工率较高因素影 响，丁二烯港口库存明显减少，部分生产企业还有外售丁二烯货源的情况出现，反映 出当下丁二烯基本面的强势表现。同时中期来看，今年上半年丁二烯无新增装置投 产，加剧市场对其供应紧缺的担忧。此外，近期资金快速流向能化板块也令橡胶品种 迎来资金助推。 综合来看, 昨夜丁二烯橡胶涨停主要是受原料+资金共同作用的结果，其自身供需情 况并未出现明显变动。短期由于丁二烯货源偏紧，预计仍会对BR价格形成提振，交 易层面主要警惕情绪释放后的回调风险。 研究员：李方磊 联系方式：19339940612 期货交易咨询号: Z0021311 格林大华期货研究院-证监许可【2011】1288号 免责声明：本内容及数据结果仅供交流参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As of January 16, US crude, gasoline, and diesel inventories all exceeded expectations, leading to a significant cooling of market sentiment after a rebound due to cold wave speculation in the previous two trading days. Supply - overhang pressure restricts the enthusiasm of capital chasing up prices. With geopolitical risks slightly easing, it is difficult for oil prices to break through the upside space, but geopolitical risks have not completely disappeared [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents US Crude and Product Inventory Data - US commercial crude inventory increased by 3,602 thousand barrels (0.85%) to 426,049 thousand barrels as of January 16 compared to January 9 [1][2]. - Cushing crude inventory increased by 1,478 thousand barrels (6.27%) to 25,063 thousand barrels [2]. - US gasoline inventory increased by 5,977 thousand barrels (2.38%) to 256,990 thousand barrels [2]. - US distillate inventory increased by 3,348 thousand barrels (2.59%) to 132,592 thousand barrels [2]. - US total oil product inventory increased by 7,538 thousand barrels (0.58%) to 1,307,633 thousand barrels [2]. - US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 806 thousand barrels (0.19%) to 414,484 thousand barrels [2]. US Refinery and Production - Related Data - US refinery utilization rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points (-2.10%) to 93.3% [2]. - US crude oil production decreased by 21 thousand barrels per day (-0.15%) to 13,732 thousand barrels per day [1][2]. - US crude oil imports decreased by 645 thousand barrels per day (-9.09%) to 6,447 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US crude oil exports decreased by 618 thousand barrels per day (-14.35%) to 3,688 thousand barrels per day [2].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 23 日星期五 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.13%，收于228 | | | | | 9元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、今日锦州港收购价格稳中偏强，主流收购价为2300-2305元/吨（15%水、700容重 | | | | | ），前一日2290-2300元/吨。 | | | | | 2、1月22日山东地区深加工企业厂门到货为878辆，较前一日减少224辆。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示截至1月22日，玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增加75手，累计5 | | | | | 0347手。 | | | ...

| | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周四螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月新能源汽车产量 179.1 万辆，同比增长 8.7%； | | | | | 1-12 月产量 1652.4 万辆，同比增长 25.1%。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月，中国原煤产量为 43703.5 万吨，同比下降 | | | | | 1.0%；1-12 月累计产量 483178.2 万吨，同比增长 1.2%。 | | | | | 从分省数据来看，2025 年 1-12 月山西、内蒙古和陕西原煤产量累计同比分别增长 | | | | | 2.1%、-1.0%和 2.9%。 | | | | | 3、2026 年 1 月 22 日，国家统计局最新数据显示，2025 年 12 月，我国挖掘机产量 | | | | | 37305 台，同比增长 20.8%。2025 年全年，我国挖掘机产量 379643 台，同比增长 ...

2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1126.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.27%；焦炭主力合 J2605 | | | | | 收于 1685.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.12%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力收于 1134.5，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘上涨 0.27%，焦炭主力合约收于 1694.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.36% | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， | | | | | 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。今年降准降息还有一定 | | | | | 的空间 ...