研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、瑞银全球金融市场部表示，国际投资者正加速配置中国资产，过去一年中，瑞 银长期追踪的全球前 40 大国际投资机构对中国的持仓占比创下 2023 年以来的新 | | | | | 高，主动型海外基金已开始重新加仓中国资产。 | | | | | 2、12 月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源 | | | | | 价格后，去年 12 月核心消费者价格指数同比上涨 2.6%。交易员们进一步增加了对 | | | | | 美联储降息的押注，4 月降息的概率升至 42%。 | | | | | 3、美国国务院要求美国公民立即离开伊朗。与此同时，美国国防部披萨指数再度 | | | | | 狂飙。其中，达美乐披萨订单激增 1000%。该指数飙升通常意味着美国国防部有重 | | | | | 大行动。美军在中东的最新行动亦被以 ...

| 宏观经济 | | --- | 宏观经济 2026年1月14日 中国12月出口再超预期 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 从业资格证号： F3063825 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2026年1月14日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 摘要 中国12月以美元计价出口金额同比增长6.6%，预估为增 长2.2%，前值同比增长5.9%；进口同比增长5.7%，预估为同 比下降0.3%，前值同比增长1.9%。中国2025年全年出口金额 同比增长5.5%，去年增长5.8%；2025年进口金额同比持平，2 024年同比增长1.0%。 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 12月份中国出口东盟同比增长11.2%，全年13.4%，2024 年12%。12月中国出口欧盟同比增长11.6%，全年8.4%，2024 年3.0%。12月中国出口美国同比下降30.0%，2025年同比下降 20.0%，2024年4.9%。2025年中国对共建一带一路国家出口金 额同比增长10.6%，出口非 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - With the escalation of the situation in Iran, the short - term trend of crude oil - related products is oscillating strongly, but it is greatly affected by the news, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly [4]. - The overall export volume of fuel oil is not significantly affected by the attacks on Russian energy facilities. The pattern of sanctions on Russian oil products is expected to remain in the short term, and there is no specific plan for a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [4]. - The current fuel oil market has interwoven long and short factors, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. Around March, when the existing raw material stocks of domestic asphalt refineries are exhausted, fuel oil is expected to fill a certain supply gap [4]. - The fuel oil shipment volume in Iran has shown a downward trend. The high - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume in January is expected to be 490,000 tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons compared to the previous statistical cycle. The supply stability of Iranian fuel oil is worrying, which may affect the global fuel oil supply - demand balance [4]. 3) Summary by Related Information Geopolitical Situation - US President Trump said that a 25% tariff will be imposed on the goods of countries doing business with Iran, and the US and France have notified their citizens to leave Iran. Trump also threatened to take "very tough action" if Iran executes anti - government protesters [3]. Market Situation - The short - term trend of crude oil - related products is oscillating strongly due to the situation in Iran, and the market is affected by news and may fluctuate repeatedly [4]. - The attack on Russian energy facilities has little impact on the overall export volume of fuel oil. The sanctions on Russian oil products are expected to remain in the short term, and there is no clear cease - fire plan between Russia and Ukraine [4]. Fuel Oil Fundamentals - The current fuel oil market has interwoven long and short factors with no prominent contradiction. Around March, fuel oil may fill the supply gap when domestic asphalt refineries exhaust their raw material stocks [4]. - Iranian fuel oil shipments are decreasing. The January high - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume is expected to be 490,000 tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons compared to the previous cycle. The supply stability of Iranian fuel oil is at risk, which may affect the global supply - demand balance [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have stabilized, and the USDA monthly report supports the operation of US cotton futures prices. The main 03 contract settled at 64.88 cents, up 0.05%. There is obvious support for the downside of Zhengzhou cotton. The decline in cotton planting area and the expectation of tight balance continue to dominate the market trend. The expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton stimulates the import of foreign cotton and yarn to ease the supply shortage, but the overall bullish thinking remains unchanged [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.88, down 3 points; 5 - month at 66.41, down 3 points; 7 - month at 67.86, unchanged; trading volume was about 58,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 710,353, and the open interest was 1,201,677. The settlement prices were 14,850 for January, 14,765 for May, and 14,920 for September [2] Important Information - In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a 9.6% increase from October (110,000 tons) and a 4.8% increase year - on - year (116,000 tons). Brazilian cotton accounted for 27% of total imports, West African cotton 26%, and Indian cotton 21% [2] - As of January 10, the net signed export of Egyptian cotton was 3,783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week (1,075 tons). The new contracts mainly came from China (2,427 tons) and India (853 tons). The shipment volume was 25 tons, a significant decrease from the previous week (1,651 tons). The average transaction price of Giza 94 new cotton was 146 cents/pound, up 1 cent/pound from the previous week [2] - Recently, the weather in Pakistan's cotton - growing areas has been cool and dry. The winter rainfall is still below the average. Sporadic seed cotton is continuously transported to ginning mills. The total output of new cotton in Pakistan is expected to be between 1085,000 - 1,124,000 tons. The transaction price of seed cotton is stable, ranging from 6,500 - 8,200 rupees/40 kilograms depending on quality [2] - According to the USDA's January US cotton supply - demand forecast report, in 2025/26, the US cotton planting area is 5.6345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu from the previous month. The harvest area increased to 4.7376 million mu, an increase of 264,700 mu. The yield per unit area is expected to be 64 kg/mu, a decrease of 5.5 kg/mu. The production is expected to be 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. The consumption is expected to be 348,000 tons, with a decrease of 5.9%. The export volume is expected to be 2.656 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2] Trading Strategy - Build long positions below 14,500 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and take profit at 15,000 yuan/ton [2]

联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约跌幅0.31%，收于228 | | | | | 1元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价窄幅波动。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2167元/吨，较前一日涨4元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2253元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日跌1元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格继续走强。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2280-2290元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2430元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示，截至1月13日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增73手，共计3 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 8148手。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | ...

2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日日盘锰硅主力合约 | SM2603 | 收于 | 5916，环比日盘开盘下跌 | 0.24%；硅铁主力合约 | SF2603 | 收于 | 5682，环比日盘开盘下跌 | 0.28%。 | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、美国总统特朗普威胁对与伊朗有商业往来的国家征收 | 25%的关税。外交部发言人毛宁 | | | | | | | | | 回应表示，中方将坚定维护自身正当合法权益。 | 2、华北某大型钢厂现已启动 | 2026 | 年 | 1 | 月硅锰招标，本次计划采购数量 | 17000 | 吨；环比 | | | | 增量 | 2300 | 吨。 | 硅铁、 | 3、1 | 月 | 13 | 日临汾安泽市场炼焦煤价格暂稳，低硫主焦精煤 | A ...

联系方式：010-56711796 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice | | | | 黑色建材 铁矿 | 偏多 | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周二铁矿收跌。夜盘收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、据国际船舶网跟踪：2026 年 1 月 5 日至 2026 年 1 月 11 日，全球船厂共接获 33+8 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 26+8 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 7 艘新船订单。 2、国家发改委：将牵头制定循环经济发展"十五五"规划。 3、湖南 2026 年计划推进 31 个高速公路项目，总投资约 3350 亿元。 4、工信部召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会，来自钢铁、有色、新材料、汽车、机 械、船舶、轻工、医药、电子等重点行业的 12 家企业负责人参会。会议强调，积 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 极参与行业规则制定和自律机制建设，自觉抵制"内卷"。 【市场逻辑】 本 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周二螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、据国际船舶网跟踪：2026 年 1 月 5 日至 2026 年 1 月 11 日，全球船厂共接获 33+8 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 26+8 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 7 艘新船订单。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2、国家发改委：将牵头制定循环经济发展"十五五"规划。 3、湖南 2026 年计划推进 31 个高速公路项目，总投资约 3350 亿元。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 4、工信部召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会，来自钢铁、有色、新材料、汽车、机 | | | | | 械、船舶、轻工、医药、电子等重点行业的 12 家企业负责人参会。会议强调，积 | | ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，全天横向波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货 主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.28%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.06%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.04%， | | | | | 2 年期 TS2603 持平。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 3586 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 162 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净投放 3424 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场短期利率上行，DR001 全天加权平均为 1.39%， | | | | | 上一交易日加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upward due to factors such as international crude oil price increases, the resurgence of the biodiesel concept, and the inflow of hot money. Palm oil is expected to continue to strengthen, but attention should be paid to the postponed implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy. Vegetable oil long positions should be held. [1][2] - Against the backdrop of abundant global soybean supply, double - meal trading should adopt an intraday approach, and a mid - line bottom - oscillation mindset should be maintained. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Section 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 13, due to the tense situation between the US and Iran, international crude oil prices rose, and the biodiesel concept resurfaced. Palm oil led the vegetable oil sector. Among them, the closing price of the main soybean oil contract Y2605 was 7986 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day; the closing price of the main palm oil contract P2605 was 8778 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day; the closing price of the main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 was 9017 yuan/ton, up 0.41% day - on - day. [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. [1] - Indonesia's implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending regulation depends on the price difference between crude oil and crude palm oil. It is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026. [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with a monthly volume of 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil. [1] - In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 1.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%; exports were 1.3165 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; inventory was 3.05 million tons, within the market's expected range. [1] - From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase compared to the same period in December. Exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons. [1] - Indonesia's total biodiesel allocation in 2026 is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. [1] - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76%. [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Internationally, the tense situation between the US and Iran has led to supply concerns and geopolitical conflicts, causing international crude oil prices to continue to rise, which has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Domestically, the fundamentals of soybean oil are mixed. During the Spring Festival stocking period, soybean oil inventory has decreased, but it is still at a historically high level year - on - year. The full sale of domestic old soybean auctions indicates sufficient future supply, while the customs' tightened soybean clearance policy continues. For palm oil, the expected negative overseas reports have been released, and the market is more influenced by the rise in international crude oil prices and the biodiesel concept. For rapeseed oil, the strong prices of soybean and palm oil have driven up its price. [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. [2] - Arbitrage trading: Exit the previously focused strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference. [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Section 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 13, the US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report was bearish, causing US soybeans to close lower and dragging down the domestic double - meal market to oscillate weakly. The closing price of the main soybean meal contract M2605 was 2761 yuan/ton, down 1.04% day - on - day; the closing price of the main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 was 2314 yuan/ton, down 0.69% day - on - day. [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, with a base price of 3630 - 3790 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 3809.55 yuan/ton. [2] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, rising crushing volume, decreased exports, and increased ending inventory. Global soybean production is expected to reach 425.7 million tons. [2][3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons. [3] - As of January 9, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, higher than the same period last year. [3] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 82%, and the growth of sown soybeans was in good condition. [3] - Brazil's soybean exports in December were 3.38 million tons, a 69% year - on - year increase. [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase compared to the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 1.12 billion tons. [3] - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.488 million tons, an increase of 612,000 tons compared to the previous week. [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Internationally, under the pressure of abundant global soybean supply, US soybeans are under pressure and testing the support at 1000 US dollars. Domestically, the spot prices of oil mills are mostly stable, and the pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking intention has increased, driving up the price of finished feed. The USDA report's simultaneous increase in US soybean inventory and Brazilian production, along with the year - on - year increase in global rapeseed and rapeseed meal production, jointly suppress the market. [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Mid - line trading: Maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset and conduct intraday trading. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. [4] - Arbitrage trading: There are currently no arbitrage strategies. [4]