报告 科创50指数创新高 证监许可【2011】1288号 2025年9月26日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 周二急跌后，周三大涨，沪深300指数创出本轮新高（小时图） 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 阿里云栖大会：投入3800亿元更大规模的AI资本开支 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 科创50指数，在半导体板块高景气推动下，周四创出本轮新高 瑞银将阿里对容量增长的预测与资本投入进行了挂钩。据该行估算，每1GW的数据中心需求，若全部用于AI， 大约需要1000亿元人民币的IT设备资本开支。 瑞银认为，这一测算结果显著高于当前市场普遍预期，打破市场对于AI资本支出周期的可持续性以及超大规 模厂商资本支出强度的怀疑。 OpenAI计划投入约 4000 亿美元，与甲骨文和软银合作，在美国开发五个新的数据中心站点，容量7GW。 大摩预计到2028年，全球AI数据中心和芯片投资将高达2.9万亿美元，其中科技巨头将承担约1.4万亿美元。 余下的缺口预计将通过债务融资填 ...

报告 白银价格创新高 2025年9月26日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 阿里云栖大会：投入3800亿元更大规模的AI资本开支 阿里巴巴首席执行官吴泳铭在大会上释放了非常积极的信号。吴泳铭透露，模型令牌（token）使用量每两到 三个月即翻一番，显示出AI需求的爆炸式增长。 证监许可【2011】1288号 【全球经济展望】 中国实施人工智能+行动。国际资本积极加仓中国科技板块，认为在AI、机器人、生物科技等前沿领域，中 国已具备全球竞争力。美国8月零售环比增0.6%，超预期。美国8月新屋销售年化80万户，大幅高于预期。华为公 布了昇腾芯片演进和目标，算力"超节点+集群"已领先英伟达两年以上。OpenAI计划投入约 4000 亿美元，在 美国开发五个新的数据中心站点。阿里正积极推进3800亿元的AI基础设施建设，并计划追加更大的投入。 全球经济保持上行方向。 阿里计划在未来三年3800亿元人民币投资的基础上进行额外投资，进一步强化算力基础设施。 摩根士丹利最新研 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 09 月 26 日星期五 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加 | | | | | 工企业主流收购均价2151元/吨，较前一日跌4元/吨；华北地区深加工企业主流收购 | | | | | 价2370元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，南北港口价格北弱南强。锦州港（15%水/容重6 | | | | | 80-720）收购价2230-2240元/吨，较前一日跌10-20元/吨；蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2 | | | | | 390元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、玉米期货仓单数量继续减少。截至9 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - The short - term trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be range - bound. The spot price of coking coal is rising, and some coking enterprises have initiated the first price increase. After the replenishment is completed, the tight supply - demand situation may ease, and the upside space of the short - term futures market is limited [1] Summary by Catalog Market Review - The main contract of coking coal Jm2601 closed at 1224.5, up 1.24% compared with the opening of the day session; the main contract of coke J2601 closed at 1730.0, up 0.73%. At night, Jm2601 closed at 1223.5, down 0.08% from the day - session close, and J2601 closed at 1726.0, down 0.23% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - In mid - September, key steel enterprises produced 2073 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 207.3 million tons, a 0.6% decrease. Steel inventory was 1529 million tons, a 3.4% decrease [1] - On September 24, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and mainstream coking enterprises planned to raise the coke price on the 25th, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [1] - From the settlement on September 29, the daily price limit of iron ore futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the trading margin to 13%; for coke futures contracts, the daily price limit will be 11% with the margin unchanged; for coking coal futures contracts, the daily price limit will be 11% and the margin will be 15% [1] - From the settlement on September 29, the trading margin for apple, glass, and soda ash futures contracts at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will be 12%, and the daily price limit 10%; for rapeseed meal, red dates, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and caustic soda futures contracts, the margin will be 10% and the daily price limit 9% [1] - On September 24, the auction prices of coking coal in Linfen market increased significantly. Among 14 auction results, 13 increased and 1 had a 8% non - successful bid rate, with an average increase of about 92 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The spot price of coking coal is rising, and the cost of coking coal for coke has increased. Some coking enterprises have initiated the first price increase. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink during the National Day holiday, but the supply - demand situation may improve after the replenishment [1] Trading Strategy - Coking coal and coke are expected to move in a range in the short term [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Bullish with an upward - trending oscillation [1] - Red Dates: Oscillating [4] - Rubber: Oscillating, including natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and synthetic rubber [5] 2. Core Views - Sugar: The market anticipates a favorable output in the global 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, causing overseas sugar prices to decline. However, there are signs of the raw sugar futures stabilizing. Domestic sugar market has limited impact on Zhengzhou sugar futures, and attention should be paid to the subsequent performance of the external market [1]. - Red Dates: After continuous price drops, the futures have signs of stabilizing and rebounding. The downward space is limited, and future focus should be on capital trends and jujube quality [4]. - Rubber: Natural rubber prices have slightly stabilized, but the raw material price support and the news of state - reserve sales have opposite impacts on the market, and short - term range trading is recommended. Synthetic rubber trading atmosphere has weakened, and it may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: SR601 closed at 5497 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.97%, and SR605 closed at 5464 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.98% [1]. - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar closed at 16.12 cents/pound with a 0.25% daily decrease; Brazil's 2026/27 sugar output is expected to reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase; Thailand's 2025/26 output is expected to be 11.4 million tons; India's 2025/26 output is expected to be 32.3 million tons; the global sugar supply in 2025/26 is expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons [1]. - **Market Logic**: Overseas sugar prices are bottom - seeking, but there are signs of stabilization. Domestic sugar market has limited impact on Zhengzhou sugar futures [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in SR601 and pay attention to whether it can stay above 5500 yuan/ton [1]. Red Dates - **Market Review**: CJ601 closed at 10758 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.05%, and CJ605 closed at 10820 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.28% [4]. - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 74 tons to 9247 tons, a 0.79% decrease [4]. - **Market Logic**: After continuous decline, the futures may stabilize and rebound, and the downward space is limited [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in CJ601 and wait and see [4]. Rubber - **Market Review**: RU2601 closed at 15620 yuan/ton with a 0.61% daily increase; NR2511 closed at 12465 yuan/ton with a 0.56% daily increase; BR2511 closed at 11520 yuan/ton with a 0.79% daily increase [5]. - **Important Information**: Thailand's raw material prices are provided; tire production capacity utilization rates and inventory data in Qingdao are given; prices of various rubber products are reported [5]. - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber prices are slightly stable, affected by raw material prices and state - reserve sales news; synthetic rubber trading atmosphere is weakening, and it may oscillate narrowly [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the activity ranges of RU2601 (15500 - 16370), NR (12200 - 12800), and BR (11300 - 12000) [5].

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2601 价格上涨 15 元至 1673 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 10 元至 1610 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 3290 手至 21.26 万手，空头持仓减 少 6069 手至 25.56 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.94 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.1 万吨；今日开工率 85.2%，较去年同期 85.13%增加 0.08%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 121.82 万吨，较上周增加 5.29 万吨，环比增 | | | | | 加 4.54%。尿素港口样本库存量 51.6 万吨，环比减少 3.34 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 38.6%，环比+0.8%，三聚氰胺开工率 56.7%，环比+1.4%。 | | | | | 4、9 月 2 日印度 NFL 的尿素进口招标，最 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Core View of the Report - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with China implementing the AI+ initiative, international capital actively increasing positions in China's technology sector, and major technology companies such as OpenAI and Alibaba making significant investments in AI infrastructure [1] Summary by Related Catalog Important Information - OpenAI plans to invest approximately $400 billion to develop five new data center sites in the US with Oracle and SoftBank, fulfilling its commitment to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure in the US [1] - Alibaba Cloud's chairman says that large models are the next - generation operating systems, and AI Cloud is the next - generation computer. Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2028, AI data center and chip investment will reach $29 trillion, with tech giants bearing about $14 trillion and the remaining gap filled by debt financing, of which private credit funds are expected to provide $800 billion [1] - Alibaba Cloud showcases high - density AI servers and a new - generation network architecture. Its ecosystem companies are promoting customer introduction and product delivery in the hardware field, and many Agent applications and AI terminal products will be exhibited [1] - Bloomberg's Nour Al Ali believes that the rise in the price of gold in Swiss francs this year shows that central bank demand is the key driver for the rise of precious metals [1] - Tech giants like Microsoft and Google are in an AI capital expenditure race, and Deutsche Bank warns that historical technology - driven capital spending booms have often led to "boom - bust" cycles [1] Global Economic Logic - China implements the AI+ initiative, and international capital is bullish on China's technology sector. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and its capital goods imports in July reached a record high. Huawei's Ascend chips lead NVIDIA in computing power. OpenAI and Alibaba are making large - scale AI infrastructure investments [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Methanol downstream shows a lackluster peak season. This week, port inventories are being reduced from high levels, and inland inventories continue to decline. With the restart of the Zhejiang Xingxing MTO unit and limited impact from the short - term shutdown of Iranian units last week, the short - term methanol price will oscillate within a range, and the downside space is narrowing, with a reference range of 2320 - 2420 [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the methanol main contract rose 3 yuan to 2358 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region rose 15 yuan to 2255 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 13888 lots to 554800 lots, and short positions decreased by 23433 lots to 669400 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 67.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1492200 tons, a decrease of 65600 tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 41200 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 24400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 319900 tons, a decrease of 20500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.03% [1] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 76800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30900 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 273000 tons, an increase of 39200 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 16.79%. The olefin operating rate is 84.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 6.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 86.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%; the acetic acid operating rate is 82.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% [1] - The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points compared with the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 will slow down to 2.9%, the same as the June forecast [1] Market Logic - Methanol downstream shows a lackluster peak season. This week, port inventories are being reduced from high levels, and inland inventories continue to decline. The import volume in August is 1.7598 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59%. The restart of the Zhejiang Xingxing MTO unit is a positive factor, and the short - term shutdown of Iranian units last week has limited impact. The short - term methanol price will oscillate within a range, and the downside space is narrowing, with a reference range of 2320 - 2420 [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term operation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [3] - Pig: Range trading [5] - Egg: High short [5] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term, pay attention to import corn auction rhythm and corn - wheat price difference; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers; long - term, maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost and focus on policy orientation [3] - **Pig**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, pressuring pig prices; mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to materialize if no epidemic occurs [5] - **Egg**: Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, and egg prices may decline if inventory rises; long - term, focus on the extent of chicken culling, and supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices vary: Northeast down 12 yuan/ton to 2155 yuan/ton, North China up 18 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton [3] - Port prices: North weak, South stable. Jinzhou Port down 10 yuan/ton, Shekou Port unchanged [3] - Corn futures warehouse receipts unchanged at 23814 as of September 24 [3] - Wheat - corn price difference in Shandong is + 80 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [3] - Corn bidding procurement: 2.15 million tons planned, 1.91 million tons transacted, 89% success rate [3] - August 2025 national industrial feed output is 29.36 million tons, up 3.7% MoM and 3.8% YoY [3] Market Logic - Short - term, support at 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton, pressure from wheat - corn price difference [3] - Mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn, with wide - range trading [3] - Long - term, follow import substitution and planting cost pricing, focus on policies [3] Trading Strategy - Mid - long - term, maintain range trading; short - term, look for low - long opportunities. Support for 2511 contract at 2100 - 2130, 2601 contract at 2100 - 2120 [3] Pig Market Review - LH2511 contract closed flat at 12730 yuan/ton yesterday [5] Important Information - National average pig price is 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; expected morning prices are weak - stable [5] - July 2025 fertile sow inventory is 40.42 million, 103.64% of normal level; July sow culling up 2.1% MoM [5] - September 24 fattening - standard price difference is 0.2 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin [5] - September 18 weekly average slaughter weight is 124.68 kg, up 0.36 kg [5] - September 24 pig futures warehouse receipts down 59 to 368 [5] - 15,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be released on September 28 [5] Market Logic - Short - term, supply exceeds demand, North may stop falling, South remains weak [5] - Mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases [5] - Long - term, sow inventory is high, production capacity will continue to materialize [5] Trading Strategy - Near - month contracts follow supply - demand logic, suggest taking profit on short positions; far - month contracts trade on de - capacity expectation difference. Support for 2511 contract at 12300 - 12500, 2601 contract at 12800 - 13000, etc. [5] Egg Market Review - JD2511 contract fell 0.46% to 3056 yuan/500kg yesterday [5] Important Information - Egg prices are mainly stable, main production area unchanged, main sales area down 0.02 yuan/jin [5] - Inventory increased slightly, production link stable, circulation link up 0.02 days [5] - Old hen price is 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; September 18 average culling age is 497 days, up 2 days [5] - August in - production laying hen inventory is 1.365 billion, up 0.66% MoM and 5.98% YoY; September estimated at 1.353 billion, down 0.8% MoM [5] Market Logic - Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, egg prices may decline with rising inventory [5] - Long - term, focus on chicken culling, supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] Trading Strategy - Maintain high - short strategy before large - scale culling. Pressure for 2511 contract at 3090 - 3100, etc. Also, breeding enterprises can consider selling hedging opportunities for 2607 and 2608 contracts [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log sector in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock industry is moderately bullish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The log futures market has been oscillating recently. International prices remain high, while domestic spot prices are weak, increasing traders' operating pressure. Short - term imports are expected to be cautious, and the domestic supply may remain tight. Despite the traditional peak consumption season, last week's port shipments decreased, indicating that the recovery of terminal demand was less than expected. The overall inventory is low, and the de - stocking pressure is limited. The market fundamentals have improved, but the peak - season demand is mediocre, and the price upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - The log futures price declined. The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 805.0 yuan per cubic meter, down 0.31% [3] Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous week. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous week [3] - As of August 15, the weekly arrival volume of domestic coniferous logs was 33.9 million cubic meters, a decrease of 16.65 million cubic meters from the previous week [3] - The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week [3] Market Logic - The log futures market has been oscillating. International prices are high, domestic spot prices are weak, imports may be cautious, and supply may be tight. Terminal demand recovery is less than expected during the peak season, inventory is low, and de - stocking pressure is limited. Market fundamentals have improved, but peak - season demand is mediocre, and price upward momentum is insufficient [3] Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract will oscillate [3]