Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 推荐理由 | 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 8 日星期四 | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon iron and manganese silicon) is "oscillating and bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the main contracts of silicon iron and manganese silicon rose on the previous trading day, mainly affected by the daily limit of coking coal and coke. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment has gradually started, significantly boosting market confidence [1]. - For manganese silicon, the price of manganese ore increased before that of manganese silicon, providing strong cost support. The market still has certain expectations for downstream winter storage, but the progress of the new round of steel procurement needs attention [1]. - Driven by short - term sentiment, the market is bullish, but the demand for the two types of silicon remains to be tested after the steel procurement is finalized and the emotional stimulus weakens [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On the previous trading day, the main contract of manganese silicon SM2603 closed at 6000, up 1.39% compared with the opening of the day session. The main contract of silicon iron SF2603 closed at 5860, up 1.45% compared with the opening of the day session [1]. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Action Plan for the Integration and Empowerment of Industrial Internet and Artificial Intelligence", accelerating the deployment and application in key industries such as raw materials, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and electronic information, and promoting more than 50,000 enterprises to implement the transformation and upgrading of new industrial networks [1]. - On January 7th, the ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 50 in total, reaching 2,980 yuan/ton [1]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The daily output of clean coal was 261 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 thousand tons. The clean coal inventory was 3.197 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 94 thousand tons [1]. - Shaanxi Coal Industry: In December 2025, the coal output was 1.474 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%. The cumulative coal output in 2025 was 174.9056 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59% [1]. Market Logic - Yesterday, the double - silicon market opened with a gap mainly due to the daily limit of coking coal and coke. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment has started, boosting market confidence. For manganese silicon, the rising price of manganese ore provides cost support, and the market has expectations for downstream winter storage [1]. Trading Strategy - The short - term sentiment drives the market to be bullish. After the steel procurement is finalized and the emotional stimulus weakens, the demand for double silicon remains to be tested. The short - term view is bullish [1].

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周三夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 36 元至 2244 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | 价格上涨 5 元至 2273 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 29083 手至 45.03 万手，空 | | | | | 头持仓增加 33834 手至 57.5 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 153.72 万吨，较上一期数据增加 4.08 吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.72 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.64 万吨。 | | | | | 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 44. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core View - On the night of January 7th, the JM05 contract of coking coal futures jumped up by 6.95% to 1,215 yuan/ton, mainly due to the rising market risk - preference, the rotation of futures and stocks, and the fundamentals and futures market conditions [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Reasons for the sharp rise in coking coal futures - The Shanghai Composite Index (000001) breaking through a ten - year high indicates that the overall market risk preference is rising [1] - After the bulls in the futures market have snapped up various metals, they noticed that coking coal futures hadn't risen [1] - The sharp rise of stocks in the non - ferrous sector and the rise of the CSI Coal Index (399998) by 3.73% show the rotation of stock sectors and the linkage between futures and stocks [1] Fundamentals and futures market conditions - The inventory of Qinhuangdao thermal coal has decreased from 7.37 million tons on December 22nd, 25 to 5.25 million tons on January 7th, and the CCTD Bohai Rim 5500 - calorie thermal coal index has found support at 680 yuan/ton [2] - The first - quarter long - term contract price of imported Mongolian coal is about 66 - 69 US dollars, equivalent to 800 - 830 yuan/ton in the spot market and 920 - 950 yuan/ton in the futures market [2] - On January 3rd, the JM futures increased positions by 53,000 contracts, and the small decline of 34.5 yuan at the close indicates that the resistance to long - position trading is the smallest, and the potential upward price movement (300 yuan) is greater than the downward movement (100 yuan) [2] Policy analysis - Policies such as the over - production inspection in July 25 and the capacity verification of coal - supply guarantee mines in Shaanxi in 26 do not conflict with the increase in coal production [2]

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘集体低开，早盘上涨收复失地，午后震荡回落，特别在 股指收涨后，较大幅度回落，截至收盘 30年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603下跌 0.44%， | | | | | 10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.08%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.06%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.03%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 286 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 5288 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 5002 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率保持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.26%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.46%，上一交易日加 | | | ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 8 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.65%报 4467.1 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 3.77%报 77.98 美 元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.31%报 1002.2 元/克，沪银收跌 2.99%报 19020 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 7 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上个交易日维持不 变，当前持仓量为 1067.13 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 上日减少 18.33 吨，当前持仓量为 16099.83 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Bullish Bias" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have corrected, and the main 03 contract settled at 64.85 cents, down 0.32%. The expectation of a tight balance in Zhengzhou cotton continues to intensify. Zhengzhou cotton has encountered resistance at the 15,000 integer level after continuous upward movement. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may undergo some adjustments at the current level, but the bottom support is solid and the downside space is limited [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1) Market Quotes - ICE March contract settled at 65.06, up 41 points; May at 66.43, up 44 points; July at 67.74, up 43 points, with about 86,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 795,874 and an open interest of 1,246,090. The settlement prices were 15,100 for January, 14,965 for May, and 15,155 for September [2] 2) Important News - On January 4, spinning enterprises in the Bazhou area of southern Xinjiang purchased 31 - grade double - 29 machine - picked new cotton with less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The contract basis transaction price was 950 - 1050 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 15,500 - 15,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - As of December 18, 2025, the United States had cumulatively signed and exported 1.488 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 56.03% of the annual expected export volume, and had cumulatively shipped 640,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 43.01% [2] - As of now this season, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, 39% of which is from Telangana. Converted at a lint percentage of 35%, the CCI's cumulative purchase is equivalent to about 998,000 tons of lint cotton [2] - The cotton - growing area in West Texas, USA, is dry and windy, while the temperatures in the central - southern and southeastern cotton - growing areas are rising [2] - On January 4, the spot price of cotton yarn rose slightly. After the holiday, spinning enterprises gradually resumed production, and the overall production and sales in the market were relatively stable, mostly in a shipping state. The cotton yarn price continued to rise in some areas and remained stable in others [2] 3) Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have corrected, and the expectation of a tight balance in Zhengzhou cotton continues to intensify. Zhengzhou cotton has faced resistance at the 15,000 level. Due to the decrease in cotton planting subsidies in the new year and the increase in rigid demand from new production capacity in Xinjiang, short - term adjustments may occur, but the bottom support is strong [2] 4) Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an execution price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically bottle chips) is "Oscillating Weak" [3] Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips' main contract declined on Wednesday night, with the long - position and short - position both increasing. The supply of bottle chips increased slightly this week, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The new device was put into production as expected, having little impact on the market. Short - term bottle chip prices will fluctuate with raw materials, and the reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5980 - 6200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies [3] Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday night, the main price of bottle chips dropped 34 yuan to 6022 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 6035 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6090 yuan/ton (+0). Long - position holdings increased by 1764 lots to 60,300 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 1760 lots to 62,500 lots [3] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, this week's domestic polyester bottle chip output was 335,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.21. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester bottle chips was 73.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31; the production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5623 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 178 yuan/ton; the weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [3] - In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [3] - In December 2025, the output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [3] - The situation between the US and Venezuela has not intensified, and the market believes that Venezuela's production will increase in the long - term, causing international oil prices to decline. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract dropped 1.14 dollars/barrel to 55.99 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract dropped 0.74 dollars/barrel to 59.96 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 1.22%; the China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract dropped 2.5 to 424.8 yuan/ton, and dropped 9.3 to 415.5 yuan/ton in night trading [3] - According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5th, a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, which has led to speculation about possible special operations in the region [3] Market Logic - The US attacked Venezuela, but Venezuela's oil facilities were not affected. After the US "takes over", the medium - to - long - term crude oil supply may increase, which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The new device was put into production as expected, having little impact on the market. Short - term bottle chip prices will fluctuate with raw materials [3] Trading Strategy - Reduce long positions on rallies [3]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 8 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格上涨 6 元至 5457 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格 5295 元/吨（环比+5），山东地区现货价格 5225 元/吨（环比-8）。持仓方面，多 | | | | | 头持仓增加 812 手至 1.8 万手，空头持仓增加 1114 至 2.31 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，12 月国内纯苯产量 193.4 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | | | | 万吨，环比-7.4%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：31.8 万吨，较上期库存 30.0 万吨 | | | | | 上升 1.8 万吨，环比增加 6.00%；较去年 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 08 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.67%，收于224 | | | | | 7元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价整体稳定。东北地区企业主流 | ...