格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 08 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.67%，收于224 | | | | | 7元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价整体稳定。东北地区企业主流 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "downward" rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy is facing significant uncertainties and challenges. The US's political and economic policies, along with the development of AI and the performance of financial markets, all contribute to an overall downward trend in the global economy [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Information in the Morning Session - Musk states that once Starship achieves full and rapid reuse, launch costs will drop below $100 per kilogram, and a 100GW - level "space solar AI satellite array" can be built through 10,000 flights per year to send 1 million tons of payload into orbit [1] - Musk believes the future bottleneck of AI lies in electricity, not chips. The lack of power, heat dissipation, and liquid - cooling may prevent GPUs from working, which is why TSMC is worried about over - expansion [1] - Musk predicts that the next three to seven years will be an extremely turbulent transition period. AI will rapidly replace many white - collar jobs, causing unemployment and social unrest, while at the same time, production efficiency will be fully released, leading to an abundance of goods and services [1] - J.P. Morgan Asset Management warns that the prosperity of the US stock market is dominated by generative AI, and trillions of capital expenditures face uncertainties in profit returns and US power infrastructure bottlenecks. If expectations are not met, the market will face a severe liquidation risk [1] - Goldman Sachs warns that the current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is approaching the 2000 bubble peak, and the top ten stocks account for 41% of the market value. This "high valuation + extreme concentration" combination is similar to that before previous market crashes [1] - Since April, the US dollar has been flat while the commodity index has risen significantly. Goldman Sachs' Privorotsky believes this may indicate either a full - scale depreciation of the US dollar or a rapid recovery of the global economy [1] - Citigroup points out that the copper price may rise to $14,000 per ton in the next three months but may peak this month without new catalysts, which could balance the global copper spot market in 2026 [1] - Global investors' confidence in emerging market bonds has reached a 13 - year high, with the risk premium relative to US bonds narrowing to about 2.5 percentage points, the lowest since early 2013 [1] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The US's actions against Venezuela's president bring great uncertainty to the global economic and political order. Nomura expects the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve to peak from July to November 2026, which may lead to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and restarts the expansion of its balance sheet. Trump may fire Fed Chairman Powell [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenues is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US releases a new National Security Strategy, abandons global hegemony, and will adjust economic relations with China to revitalize its economic autonomy [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation is intensifying, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan raises interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rises to 2.0% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - J.P. Morgan strategists think the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, and economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [2] - Due to the US's continuous wrong policies, the global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is bullish [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, rebar prices closed down while hot-rolled coil prices closed up, and both rose during the night session. The market sentiment is bullish as most commodities rose during the night session, and rebar and hot-rolled coil prices soared. Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the top five steel products both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. The market will gradually enter the winter storage period, and there will be an increase in demand. The futures market has started to price in the winter storage logic in advance, leading to a price rebound. The rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage, which is estimated to be limited [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar prices closed down while hot-rolled coil prices closed up, and both rose during the night session [1] Important News - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.3394 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 20.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% [1] - Henan aims to start construction on about 1,500 new projects in the first quarter of 2026 [1] - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, global shipyards received a total of 31 + 4 new ship orders, with Chinese shipyards receiving 24 + 4 orders, South Korean shipyards receiving 1 order, and Finnish and American shipyards also receiving relevant orders [1] - The 2026 Work Conference of the People's Bank of China was held from January 5th to 6th. The conference emphasized the need to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, and increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts. Various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be flexibly and efficiently used to maintain ample liquidity [1] Market Logic - Most commodities rose during the night session, and rebar and hot-rolled coil prices soared, with bullish market sentiment. Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the top five steel products both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. The resistance level for the main rebar contract is 3,200, and the support level is 3,030. The market will gradually enter the winter storage period, and there will be an increase in demand. The futures market has started to price in the winter storage logic in advance, leading to a price rebound. The rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage, which is estimated to be limited [1] Trading Strategy - Try to establish long positions and set stop-loss levels. Hold existing long positions [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 7 日星期三 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.22%报 4505.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 5.95%报 81.22 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.81%报 1008.74 元/克，沪银收涨 4.8 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.31%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.05%. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.31%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.05% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.3 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.43%, also the same as the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly rose compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 1.75 basis points to 1.40%, the 5 - year rose 2.73 basis points to 1.67%, the 10 - year rose 2.45 basis points to 1.88%, and the 30 - year rose 2.82 basis points to 2.31% [1] - The US Supreme Court announced that it will make a ruling on the Trump tariff case this Friday (January 9th) [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce: All dual - use items are prohibited from being exported to Japanese military users [1] Market Logic - China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in December was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line, with the previous value at 49.2%. In December, the production index was 51.7%, and the new orders index was 50.8%, indicating that both manufacturing production and demand entered the expansion range. The service business activity index in December was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line, compared to 49.5% in the previous month. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's fourth - quarter meeting pointed out that it should grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation based on domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations. In December 2025, the central bank net injected 5 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading operations, conducting treasury bond trading operations for the third consecutive month. On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, rose unilaterally, and closed with a bald阳线. It closed 1.59% higher than the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 2.83 trillion yuan, continuing to expand from 2.57 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. On Tuesday, treasury bond futures opened significantly lower and consolidated at a low level throughout the day [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 7 日星期三 | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 周二铁矿收涨。夜盘继续收涨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、上周（2025 年 12 月 29 日-2026 年 1 月 4 日），10 个重点城市新建商品房成交 | | | | （签约）面积总计 233.94 万平方米，环比下降 20.3%，同比下降 10.9%。 | | | | 2、河南：力争 2026 年第一季度新开工项目 1500 个左右。 | | | | 3、据国际船舶网跟踪：2025 年 12 月 29 日至 2026 年 1 月 4 日，全球船厂共接获 | | | | 31+4 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 24+4 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 1 艘新船订 | | | | 单；芬兰和美国船厂也接获相关新船订单。 | | 黑色建材 铁矿 | 偏多 | 4、2026 年中国人民银行工作会议 1 月 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 7 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、达利欧称，AI 热潮目前已进入泡沫初期阶段。2025 年美国股市表现显著落后于 | | | | | 非美股市及黄金资产。新任美联储主席大概率会倾向于压低名义利率与实际利率。 | | | | | 这一举措虽会对资产价格形成支撑，但也会进一步吹大泡沫。 | | | | | 2、CME 交易所数据显示，COMEX 白银 2601 合约累计交割量已达 1800 万盎司，已超 | | | | | 过去年 1 月全月的水平（1200 万盎司）。根据目前交割进度估算，预计今年 1 月 | | | | | COMEX 白银交割量可能达到 4000 万盎司左右。 | | | | | 3、AI 的胜负在于谁能把成本压到最低。英 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2) Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts have a risk of spilling over, and methanol continues to operate strongly. The methanol market is facing a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of the spill - over of geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to adopt a bullish mindset [1][3] - As of the time of publication, the main methanol contract has risen by more than 3%, approaching the 2,300 yuan/ton mark. The port methanol quotation today is 2,260 yuan/ton [3] - The US attacked Venezuela over the weekend, escalating the geopolitical conflict risk. Although the direct impact on methanol is relatively limited, there is still a risk of spill - over, mainly concerning the situation in the Middle East [3] - Both ports and inland areas accumulated inventories last week. The import volume upon arrival is expected to decrease after mid - January. With the restart plan of the Sangjia olefin plant, methanol still faces a situation of weak reality and strong expectations [3] 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - As of the time of publication, the main methanol contract has risen by more than 3%, approaching the 2,300 yuan/ton mark. According to market news, a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, triggering speculation about possible special operations in the region [3] Fundamental Conditions - The port methanol quotation today is 2,260 yuan/ton. The US attack on Venezuela over the weekend escalated the geopolitical conflict risk. Although the Venezuelan oil facilities were not affected, there is still a risk of spill - over, mainly concerning the Middle East situation [3] - Both ports and inland areas accumulated inventories last week. The import volume upon arrival is expected to decrease after mid - January. With the restart plan of the Sangjia olefin plant, methanol still faces a situation of weak reality and strong expectations [3] Operation Suggestions - Hold long positions and do not chase high prices. Be vigilant about the emotional impact of unexpected events [4]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 6 日星期二 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 525 元/吨，日涨幅 0.11%，夜盘收 5248 元/吨；SR609 合约 | | | | | 收盘价 5269 元/吨，日涨幅 0.06，夜盘收 5260 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5282 元/吨，上涨 2 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间为 | | | | | 5280~5360 元/吨，下调 10~20 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5110~5200 元/吨，下调 10 | | | | | 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5900 元/吨，个别下调 10 元/吨。。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, iron ore prices rose on the first trading day and fell in night trading. The market may continue to trade on the winter storage expectation in the near - term, with prices remaining firm and showing an oscillating trend. After restocking ends, prices may回调. Market focus will shift to inventory accumulation expectations during the Spring Festival and the overseas mine shipping plans in 2026 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Iron ore prices rose on the first trading day after the holiday and fell in night trading [1] 3.2 Important Information - On January 5th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference where the person - in - charge of the Comprehensive Planning Department of the Ministry of Transport stated that efforts will be made to implement the renewal and digital - intelligent transformation of water transport infrastructure [1] - On January 5th, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on organizing a pilot project of "government procurement to support green and low - carbon development of highways" [1] - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce promoted green consumption of automobiles and supported consumers to purchase new energy vehicles [1] - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipping volume was 32.137 million tons, a decrease of 4.634 million tons compared to the previous period. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.427 million tons, a decrease of 3.169 million tons compared to the previous period [1] - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.247 million tons, an increase of 0.969 million tons compared to the previous period [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Before the holiday, the average daily hot metal output was 2.2743 million tons, an increase of 0.0085 million tons compared to the previous week, increasing for the second consecutive week. The global iron ore shipping volume increased seasonally in December, reaching a record high. During the holiday, the iron ore shipping volume decreased seasonally, while the arrival volume increased. Ports continued to accumulate inventory, and port inventory was at a high level. Steel mills' iron ore inventory also increased, and there was an expectation of restocking later, which would support iron ore prices [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the near - term, the market may continue to trade on the winter storage expectation, with prices remaining firm and showing an oscillating trend. After restocking ends, prices will回调, and the market focus will shift to inventory accumulation expectations during the Spring Festival and the overseas mine shipping plans in 2026 [1]