Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For the vegetable oil market, the report indicates that the market is showing a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is the strongest, soybean oil is testing key support levels, and palm oil is the weakest. Given the downward break of palm oil, it is advisable to short on rallies. For the protein (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market, after the continuous decline of the double - meal on the futures market, the premium risk from the previous rally has been cleared, and the futures market has completed a round of basis washing and pricing operations. The continuous increase in the trading volume of the spot basis indicates that the low price has attracted market purchases, and the room for further decline is limited. It is recommended to stage new long positions [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market 1. Market Review - On November 24, due to weak demand and rising inventory build - up expectations, Malaysian palm oil weakened, and Dalian palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8090 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 1345 lots. The secondary main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7890 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 1079 lots. The main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 8360 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 1873 lots. The secondary main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 8442 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 19203 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 9818 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 21536 lots. The secondary main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9488 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 3779 lots [1]. 2. Important Information - On November 25, NYMEX crude oil futures fell about 1% due to progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. If sanctions on Russian energy trade are lifted, the international crude oil market will be under pressure. The most actively traded January crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.89 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $57.95 a barrel. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut subsidies for imported biofuels by one to two years. The plan, originally scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026, aims to reduce dependence on imported biofuels and improve the competitiveness of domestic fuels. - The Brazilian government may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026, and achieving this goal is "extremely difficult". - From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.96% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.45% month - on - month. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease compared to the 1,182,216 tons exported from October 1 - 25. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to the lowest level in five months, causing the palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year to decline by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4348 million tons, an increase of 23,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 11.40%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.404 million tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 2.28% and a year - on - year increase of 14.28%; edible palm oil inventory was 591,600 tons, an increase of 35,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 6.31% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%; rapeseed oil inventory was 439,300 tons, a decrease of 43,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.95% [1][3]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the US is promoting peace between Russia and Ukraine, causing international crude oil to continue to decline under pressure. At the same time, the US domestic biodiesel policy is fluctuating, causing US soybean oil to rise first and then fall. India's palm oil import data has dropped significantly, and the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has not significantly decreased, leading to market concerns about increased inventory pressure and the downward break of Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, the supply of vegetable oil raw materials is sufficient, and the overall inventory of domestic vegetable oils is in good condition, resulting in a weak basis for soybean oil. However, domestic oil mills have been suffering continuous losses in import and crushing profits, and they face huge profit pressure. There may be price - supporting actions in the future. The poor export data of Malaysian palm oil and its downward break have dragged down the domestic palm oil to follow the weak trend. The domestic rapeseed inventory is zero, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still being depleted. The rapeseed oil at East China ports continues to be destocked, while the destocking rhythm in other regions is relatively slow. The spot price fluctuates with the futures market, and the basis quotes are generally stable with slight adjustments [1][3]. 4. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, all previous long positions in palm oil should be closed, and shorting on rallies should be the main strategy. Soybean oil is testing the support level, and if it breaks below, the downward space will open up. Rapeseed oil should be treated as strong. The resistance level for the Y2601 contract is 9000, and the support level is 8000; for the Y2605 contract, the resistance level is 8400, and the support level is 7840; for the P2601 contract, the resistance level is 8562, and the support level is 8270; for the P2605 contract, the resistance level is 8626, and the support level is 8200; for the OI2601 contract, the resistance level is 12000, and the support level is 9299; for the OI2605 contract, the resistance level is 12000, and the support level is 9000. There is no arbitrage strategy provided [1][3]. Protein (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market 1. Market Review - On November 25, the domestic protein sector showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed meal being strong and bean meal being weak, presenting a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The main bean meal contract M2601 closed at 3013 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 33,444 lots; the secondary main bean meal contract M2605 closed at a certain price (not clearly stated in a convenient way in the text), up 0.18% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 2820 lots. The main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at 2431 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 4625 lots; the secondary main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2385 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 7383 lots [3]. 2. Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area will increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres. - Since November 10, China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies: CHS, the grain department of Louis Dreyfus, and EGT. - As of November 13, the sowing of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71% complete, higher than the 61% a week ago but lower than the 80% at the same time last year. - The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production is predicted to reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture. - In November, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 4.26 million tons and a 101% increase compared to 2.339 million tons in November last year. - There are rumors in the market that there are problems with the import procedures for Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. The Russian government has decided to cancel the price - reduction coefficient for railway transportation of food products starting from 2026. Although rapeseed meal is not included, it is necessary to pay attention to whether Russian rapeseed is included, which may indirectly increase the cost of by - products. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, the same as the previous week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 1.136 million tons, an increase of 137,000 tons from the previous week, a 13.76% month - on - month increase; the contract volume was 5.264 million tons, a decrease of 607,000 tons from the previous week, a 10.34% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, a 100% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, a 100% month - on - month decrease [3][4]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the expected demand from China has cooled down, causing US soybeans to face pressure at high levels. In the spot market, oil mills have been suffering continuous losses in crushing profits, so there may be a need for oil mills to support prices. With the expected cost support from state - reserved soybeans, the downward space for futures prices is limited. For rapeseed meal in the spot market, the rapeseed inventory remains at zero, and oil mills have shut down completely. The rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons. There are rumors in the market that there are problems with the import procedures for Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. The Russian government's decision to cancel the price - reduction coefficient for railway transportation of food products starting from 2026 may indirectly increase the cost of by - products. After the continuous decline of the double - meal on the futures market, the premium risk from the previous rally has been cleared, and the futures market has completed a round of basis washing and pricing operations. The continuous increase in the trading volume of the spot basis indicates that the low price has attracted market purchases, and the room for further decline is limited [3][4]. 4. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, long positions should be established in the far - month 2605 and 2607 contracts of bean meal, and a small number of new long positions should be entered for rapeseed meal. The resistance level for the M2601 contract is 3190, and the support level is 2685; for the M2605 contract, the resistance level is 3000, and the support level is 2549; for the RM2601 contract, the resistance level is 2620, and the support level is 2280; for the RM2605 contract, the resistance level is 2500, and the support level is 2270. There is no arbitrage strategy provided [4][5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Report's Core View - The macroeconomic theme in the fourth quarter is still stable growth. Influenced by the overnight rise in US stocks and the positive news of the phone call between Chinese and US leaders, the Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, rose in the morning and then fluctuated and declined slightly, closing 1.24% higher than the previous trading day with a trading volume of 1.83 trillion yuan. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts corrected on Tuesday, while the medium - and short - term contracts were basically flat. The central bank released 1000 billion yuan in long - term funds through MLF, and the capital side is relatively loose. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the Treasury bond futures' main contracts opened roughly flat, with the 30 - year contract opening significantly lower. It rose in the morning and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract TL2603 fell 0.33%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 was flat, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - **Open Market**: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations. With 407.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 5.4 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, down from 1.47% in the previous trading day [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly rose slightly compared with the previous trading day. The yield of the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.13 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.75 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year rose 0.91 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year rose 1.65 BP to 2.18% [1] - **US Economic Data**: US PPI in September increased 2.7% year - on - year (expected 2.7%, previous 2.6%), 0.3% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous - 0.1%); core PPI increased 2.6% year - on - year (expected 2.7%, previous 2.8%). US retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month (expected 0.4%, previous 0.60%). ADP weekly data on Tuesday showed more signs of weakness in the US labor market, with the pace of layoffs accelerating in the past four weeks. On average, private enterprises cut 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, up from 2,500 jobs per week in the previous update a week ago [1] Market Logic - In October, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) in urban areas was 17.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and that of the 25 - 29 age group was 7.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Stable growth and employment still need to be strengthened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased 5.6% year - on - year, indicating good export prospects for China in November. The wholesale prices of agricultural products fluctuated narrowly in mid - November, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly, and the overall inflation level in China remained moderate. The year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities widened in mid - November, and housing prices continued to bottom out. The latest macroeconomic data shows that stable growth is still the main line of the fourth - quarter macroeconomy [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has soared to 80% as several Fed governors signaled dovish stances [1][2]. - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [2]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year, and without the AI boom, the economy might have slipped into recession [1]. - The capital expenditure of the top five tech giants in 2026 is estimated to have soared to $533 billion, and the construction boom of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Important Information - Fed officials including Mary Daly, John Williams, and Christopher Waller advocated for a December rate cut, causing the market's rate - cut bets to surge from 40% to 80% [1]. - Investment giants like Gundlach and Dalio advised holding physical gold as a defense, warning that debt - driven asset prices are far from real values and may lead to an economic collapse [1]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year, and a slump in AI stock prices or a slowdown in investment could trigger a recession [1]. - The US President launched the "Genesis Plan" to use AI to transform scientific research, and the Energy Department will create an AI experimental platform [1]. - Tesla's AI5 chip is in the tape - out stage, and the R & D of AI6 has started, with a goal to launch a new generation of AI chip design every 12 months [1]. - Google is promoting TPU chips to large customers, which have lower development costs and power consumption compared to NVIDIA GPUs [1]. - Amazon will invest up to $50 billion to expand AI and super - computing capabilities for the US government in 2026, adding nearly 1.3 gigawatts of computing power [1]. - The US government plans to invest $80 billion in restarting nuclear power construction, aiming to build 8 reactors at four locations and control the single - unit cost at $10 billion [1]. - Anthropic released the Claude Opus 4.5 model, which outperformed Gemini 3 Pro and GPT - 5.1 in programming evaluations [2]. 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased to 80%, and Google aims to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2]. - Foreign capital has shifted from the South Korean stock market to China's technology sector [2]. - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2]. - The capital expenditure of the five major tech giants in 2026 is estimated to reach $533 billion, and the construction of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2]. - The planned capacity of US data centers has surged to 245 gigawatts, and developers are building their own power plants in energy - producing areas [2]. - US stock market retailization is accelerating, with retail investors being one of the largest net buyers this year, especially in the options market [2]. - US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been mostly exhausted, and consumer slowdown has spread to the middle - income group [2]. - Unemployment among 25 - year - old and above with at least a bachelor's degree in the US exceeded 1.9 million in September, and large - scale layoffs by companies may be an economic warning [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly, leading to a sharp rise in the Nasdaq. On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and then fluctuated upwards. It is expected that the main indices of the two markets will continue to rise, and long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index for range trading. For stock index options, with the index in a wide - range fluctuation state, it is advisable to be cautious with out - of - the - money long - term call options before the end of the year [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly, and the Nasdaq soared. On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and then fluctuated upwards, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.81 trillion yuan, showing a moderate increase. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4490, up 42 points or 0.95%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2968 points, up 17 points or 0.60%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6954 points, up 85 points or 1.25%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7249 points, up 93 points or 1.31%. Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were 5G ETF, Gaming ETF, etc., and the top losers were Aerospace ETF, Military Leading ETF, etc. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top gainers were Gaming, Components, etc., and the top losers were Fishery, Military Trade Concept, etc. The net inflow of settled funds in the CSI 500 Index stock index futures was 2.5 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations on November 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan, increasing the volume for the 9th consecutive month [1]. - Fed officials such as Mary Daly and John Williams voiced support for a December rate cut, and the market's bet on a rate cut soared from 40% to 80% [1]. - Traders' bullish sentiment towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high, while the RMB spot fluctuated narrowly and the implied volatility decreased [1]. - BofA Merrill Lynch believes that China's actual consumption volume is not low globally. The real constraint on China's consumption performance is the extremely low price level and structural competition pressure, rather than insufficient absolute consumption volume. The real potential lies in consumption upgrading [1]. - Tesla's AI5 chip has entered the tape - out stage, and the R & D of the AI6 chip has started. The company aims to launch a new generation of AI chip design every 12 months and expects its chip shipments to exceed the sum of all other AI chips [1]. - Amazon will invest up to $50 billion to expand AI and super - computing capabilities for the US government, starting construction in 2026 [2]. - Google is promoting the deployment of TPU chips in its own data centers to large customers, aiming to expand the AI chip market. TPU chips have lower development costs and power consumption [2]. - The US President signed an executive order to launch the "Genesis Project" to transform scientific research with AI [2]. - The US government plans to invest $80 billion to restart nuclear power construction, betting on Westinghouse Electric's AP1000 large - reactor technology [2]. - Anthropic released its flagship model Claude Opus 4.5, which is significantly enhanced in automated programming and other aspects and will become the default model for all products [2]. - OpenAI released an optimized shopping search function based on the GPT - 5 - Thinking - mini model, which can be used almost unlimitedly and for free by all users before the holidays [2]. - Investment giants such as Gundlach and Dalio suggest holding physical gold as a defense, warning that debt - driven asset prices are seriously divorced from real values [2]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year. Analysts warn that a slump in AI stocks or a slowdown in investment may trigger a recession [2]. - The global copper processing fee has fallen below $20 per ton, hitting a 10 - year low, and the annual benchmark pricing system is facing reconstruction [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly, and the Nasdaq soared. On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and then fluctuated upwards. 16 hard - tech products were quickly approved on November 21, sending a positive signal from regulatory authorities. From January to October this year, the total inflow of overseas funds into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, far exceeding the $11.4 billion in 2024. Foreign capital has shifted its allocation to the Chinese technology sector. Morgan Stanley expects the Chinese stock market to rise further in 2026, and NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes that China will win the AI competition [1][2][3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - After a sharp decline, the overseas market has recovered. The main indices of the two markets fluctuated at a low level on Monday, with growth - style indices being relatively strong. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 80%. Google plans to double its AI computing power every 6 months and increase it by 1000 times in the next 4 - 5 years. Tesla's AI chips are making progress. Traders' bullish sentiment towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high. Overseas funds have been flowing into the Chinese stock market, and the Chinese technology sector has become a major destination for foreign capital. It is expected that the Chinese stock market will have a good year in 2026. The main indices of the two markets are expected to continue to rise [1][2][3]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Stock index futures directional trading: With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December rising to 80%, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and fluctuated upwards on Tuesday. It is expected that the main indices will continue to rise. Long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index for range trading [3]. - Stock index option trading: With the index in a wide - range fluctuation state, it is advisable to be cautious with out - of - the - money long - term call options before the end of the year [3].

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | | 进入低位震荡磨底阶段。若排除疫病影响，明年9月之前生猪供给仍将持续兑现；长 | | --- | --- | | | 期来看，10月能繁母猪存栏降幅明显，对应明年9月后供给压力或有所减弱，若母猪 | | | 存栏持续下降，可关注明年9月之后的低多机会。 | | | 【交易策略】 | | | 现货继续磨底，近月合约震荡修复、交易基差修复逻辑，短期弱势延续；中长期等 | | | 待养殖端去产能的执行效果，远月合约交易政策驱动下的去产能预期差，10月能繁 | | | 母猪存栏减幅扩大，若母猪存栏持续下降，可关注明年9月份之后的低多机会。 | | | 2601合约短线压力关注11500-11600，支撑关注11000-11200；2603合约短线压力关 | | | 注11400-11500，支撑关注11200是否有效，若有效跌破支撑则有望打开进一步下跌 | | | 空间；2605合约短线压力关注12000-12100,支撑关 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期三 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.78%报 4126.3 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.50%报 51.08 美 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.45%报 945.76 元/克，沪银涨 0.76%报 12103 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 11 月 25 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1040.86 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 增加 70.52 吨，当前持仓量为 15582.33 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 84.9% ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sugar, jujube, and rubber industries are all "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, the short - term trend is relatively stable after the digestion of previous negative factors, but the expected increase in production in India and Thailand will put pressure on sugar prices in the medium and long term. The domestic sugar market has limited fundamental news, with new sugar on the market and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to hold a bearish view [1] - For the jujube market, after the digestion of negative factors, the downward trend of jujube futures prices has weakened. However, due to the seasonal inventory accumulation period and unsold upstream goods, there is limited room for a significant rebound in the market. It is recommended to continue to be bearish and sell on rallies [3] - For the rubber market, natural rubber has support from firm raw material prices but is affected by increased overseas arrivals and high inventory in Qingdao. The demand side lacks obvious improvement, so it may oscillate in the short term. Synthetic rubber may see a slight price decline in the short term due to sufficient supply and cautious downstream buying [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: On November 24, 2025, the SR601 contract closed at 5370 yuan/ton, up 0.32% daily; the SR605 contract closed at 5319 yuan/ton, up 0.32% daily. The night - session of SR601 closed at 5377 yuan/ton, and SR605 closed at 5319 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar main - contract closed at 14.85 cents/pound, up 0.54% [1] - **Important News**: The spot price of Guangxi white sugar decreased by 5 yuan/ton; some sugar quotes in Guangxi and Yunnan were lowered. The sugar - cane crushing in Maharashtra, India, has accelerated. The USDA predicts that the total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 season will be 9.319 million short tons. The number of sugar mills in India starting operations, sugar - cane crushing volume, and sugar production have all increased compared to the same period last year. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white - sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 278 [1] - **Market Logic**: The short - term external sugar market is stable, but the expected production increase in India and Thailand will put pressure on prices in the medium and long term. The domestic sugar market has limited news, with new sugar on the market and weak demand. Technically, there are signs of a stop - fall, but considering the supply pressure, a bearish view is recommended [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close the short positions of the SR601 contract, continue to hold the 5600 call - selling options, and hold the bear - spread portfolio [1] Jujube - **Market Review**: On November 24, 2025, the CJ601 contract closed at 9225 yuan/ton, up 2.56% daily; the CJ605 contract closed at 9375 yuan/ton, up 2.18% daily [3] - **Important News**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 10,330 tons, an increase of 490 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 101.76%. The average prices of Hebei's special - grade and first - grade jujubes decreased last week. The special - grade price in the Hebei market increased by 0.24 yuan/kg on November 24, and the number of arrivals at Guangzhou Ruyifang increased by 3 trucks [3] - **Market Logic**: The jujube purchase in some areas of Xinjiang has ended, and the purchase in other main - producing areas is in the second half. The price in the Hebei sales area has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. After the digestion of negative factors, the downward trend of futures prices has weakened. However, due to the seasonal inventory accumulation period and unsold upstream goods, there is limited room for a significant rebound. Technically, there are signs of a stop - fall, but it is recommended to be bearish [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close the short positions of the CJ601 contract, and mainly sell on rallies in the future [3] Rubber - **Market Review**: As of November 24, 2025, the RU2601 contract closed at 15,320 yuan/ton, up 0.52% daily; the NR2601 contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, down 0.08% daily; the BR2601 contract closed at 10,395 yuan/ton, down 0.10% daily [4] - **Important News**: The price of Thai raw - material glue was 57 baht/kg. The prices of Yunnan and Hainan glue for different products were stable. As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 163,000 tons from the previous period, with a growth rate of 3.60%. The capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The price of butadiene in some areas was stable, and the prices of cis - polybutadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased slightly [4] - **Market Logic**: The domestic natural - rubber producing areas are entering the off - season, and the raw - material price is firm, which supports the price. However, the increase in overseas arrivals and high inventory in Qingdao, along with the lack of obvious improvement in demand, make the short - term trend oscillatory. For synthetic rubber, due to sufficient butadiene supply and cautious downstream buying, the price may decline slightly in the short term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term sentiment of the rubber sector is weak. Pay attention to the support range of 14,850 - 15,000 for RU, around 12,000 for NR, and the 10,000 - yuan mark for BR [4]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 铁矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一夜盘铁矿收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、今年 1 至 10 月，国家铁路累计发送货物 33.78 亿吨，同比增长 3%，创历史同期 | | | | | 新高；日均装车 18.6 万车，同比增长 4%，为降低全社会物流成本、保障国民经济 | | | | | 平稳运行提供了有力支撑。 | | | | | 2、根据克拉克森最新数据统计（截至 2025 年 11 月 9 日），2025 年 10 月份全球新 | | | | | 签订单 134 艘，共计 2,920,231CGT。与 2025 年 9 月份全球新签订单 185 艘，共计 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the continuous wrong policies in the United States [2] - AI - driven capital expenditure of nearly $3 trillion is expected to drive the market up, but there are risks if it fails to turn into productivity [1] - The shift of foreign capital from the South Korean stock market to Chinese technology sectors is significant [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Economic News - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years to meet AI service demand [1][2] - US data center planned capacity has soared to 245 gigawatts, with a 45 - gigawatt increase in Q3, and developers are building their own power plants in energy - producing areas [1][2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach 7,800 in 2026 driven by AI - related capital expenditure [1] - Foreign capital is leaving the South Korean stock market and flowing into Chinese technology sectors [1][2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to favorable regulations and low energy costs [2] - High - end chip depreciation concerns are affecting the US stock AI sector [1] - A "sell - Japan" trade is happening, with a rare "triple - kill" in stocks, bonds, and exchange rates [1] - Eli Lilly becomes the first trillion - dollar pharmaceutical company due to strong demand for drugs and sector rotation [1] - In September, over 1.9 million unemployed people in the US aged 25+ with a bachelor's degree accounted for a quarter of the total unemployed [1][2] - Amazon laid off about 4,700 employees, with nearly 40% in engineering, and cut jobs in the game and advertising sectors [1][2] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 75% after the New York Fed President's dovish remarks [2] - The capital expenditure forecast of the five major tech giants in 2026 has soared to $533 billion, and AI data center construction may need at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - US stock retailization is accelerating, and retail investors are major net buyers, especially in the options market [2] - US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are almost exhausted, and consumer slowdown has spread to middle - income groups [2] - Economists are worried that large - scale layoffs by well - known companies may be an economic warning signal [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (treasury bond) sector is "oscillation" for TL, T, TF, and TS [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main line of the fourth - quarter macro - economy. Treasury futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Review** - On Friday, the main contracts of treasury futures mostly opened higher, declined in the morning session, and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. By the close, the 30 - year main contract TL2512 fell 0.31%, the 10 - year T2512 fell 0.04%, the 5 - year TF2512 fell 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2512 remained flat [1]. **Important Information** - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 212.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 162.2 billion yuan [1]. - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market dropped to a recent low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% (previous trading day: 1.37%), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.44% (previous trading day: 1.49%) [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly edged up slightly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year yield rose 0.12 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.55 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year rose 0.31 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year rose 0.45 BP to 2.16% [1]. - **Commerce Data**: From January to October, the national foreign investment absorption was 621.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [1]. - **Fed Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 71%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 58%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 20%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 22% [1]. - **Fed Official Statement**: On November 21st evening, Fed's "third - in - command" Williams sent a dovish signal, saying that as the labor market cools, the Fed still has room to further cut interest rates in the near term to adjust the policy stance closer to a neutral level, which led to increased bets on a December rate cut [1]. - **US PMI Data**: The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in November was 51.9 (expected 52, previous 52.5), the Services PMI was 55 (expected 54.6, previous 54.8), and the Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, indicating that the US business activity expansion rate reached the fastest in four months, with service growth accelerating and manufacturing growth slowing [1]. - **Eurozone PMI Data**: The preliminary Eurozone Composite PMI in November was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The Services PMI was 53.1, better than the previous and expected values, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half, while the Manufacturing PMI was 49.7, falling below the boom - bust line. Analysts believe that although manufacturing is dragging down growth, the high weight of services in the overall economy means that the Eurozone's growth in the fourth quarter should be faster than in the third quarter [2]. **Market Logic** - The unemployment rates of 16 - 24 and 25 - 29 age groups (excluding students) in October were 17.3% and 7.2% respectively, higher than the same period last year, indicating that efforts to stabilize growth and employment are still needed. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased 5.6%, suggesting good export prospects for China in November. The wholesale prices of agricultural products fluctuated narrowly in mid - November, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly, with the overall domestic inflation remaining moderate. The year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities widened in mid - November, and housing prices continued to decline. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth is the main line of the fourth - quarter macro - economy. On Friday, the Wind All - A Index opened lower and closed with a medium - sized negative line, down 3.17% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.98 trillion yuan, up from 1.72 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. Treasury futures mostly closed down on Friday, with only the 2 - year contract remaining flat, not showing strength despite the sharp decline in the stock market [2]. **Trading Strategy** - Traders are advised to conduct band trading [2]