Group 1 - As of April 30, the main futures price of urea has rapidly risen, mainly stimulated by export news [doc id='1']. - The National Development and Reform Commission is rumored to allocate an export quota of 3.5 million tons of diamine phosphate, with an export window from June to December [doc id='4']. - As of April 30, mainstream factories in Shandong have successively stopped accepting orders. For example, Dongguang has stopped receiving orders for 10,000 tons, Zhengyuan has also stopped accepting orders, and Ruixing has received 10,000 tons and then stopped [doc id='4']. - This week, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises is 1.065 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 158,800 tons [doc id='4']. - The short - term fundamental support is limited. The market is optimistic about the demand starting after the May Day holiday, and the export news has frequently disrupted the market. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread and go long at low prices [doc id='4'].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 30 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | Jm2509 合约收于 932.0，环比上一交易日收盘下跌 1.58%。J2509 合约收于 1553.0，环 | | | | | 比上一交易日收盘下跌 0.58%。昨日夜盘，Jm2509 合约收于 920.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 | | | | | 1.29%，J2509 合约收于 1542.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.68%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国总统特朗普 29 日签署公告，允许对进口汽车零部件、在美国组装汽车的汽车生 | | | | | 产商进行一定程度的补偿。补偿金额最高可达汽车零售价格的 3.75%，这一补偿上限在 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore futures price is expected to show an oscillatory trend. Although the arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and the port inventory increased. The daily output of hot metal is close to the peak and is expected to remain high for some time, strongly supporting the demand for iron ore. The profitability of steel mills has improved, with off - peak electricity changing from loss to profit [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On the night session of Monday, the main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 7110, up 0.57% [1] Important Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out on April 25 that it is necessary to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies, make full use of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, speed up the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and take timely measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [1] - Last week, the supply of five major steel products was 875,840 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,130 tons or 0.4%. The total inventory was 1,534,270 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,410 tons or 3.2%. The weekly consumption was 926,250 tons, with the consumption of building materials down 6.9% and that of plates down 0.7% week - on - week [1] - In the first quarter, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China changed from a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% in the previous year to an increase of 0.8% [1] Market Logic - The arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, but the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and the port inventory increased. The daily output of hot metal is close to the peak and is expected to remain high for some time, strongly supporting the demand for iron ore. The profitability of steel mills has improved, with off - peak electricity changing from loss to profit. Overall, the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory trend [1] Trading Strategy - As the holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position or an empty position [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 29 日星期二 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘甲醇主力合约 2509 价格下跌 8 元/吨至 2292 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现 | | | | | 货价 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 29 日星期二 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 Jm2509 合约收于 947.0，环比上一交易日收盘下跌 0.94%。J2509 合约收于 1562.0，环 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 比上一交易日收盘下跌 0.26%。昨日夜盘，Jm2509 合约收于 939.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.79%，J2509 合约收于 1557.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.29%。 【重要资讯】 1、5 月制造业用钢调研显示，钢结构行业样本企业主动备货意愿薄弱，原料库存环比下 | | | | | 滑 1.69%，日耗环比下滑 1.56%；机械行业样本企业原料库存月环比下滑 5.98%，可用天 | | | | | 数下滑 3.09%；汽车行业样本企业原料库存环比下降 1.10%， ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | 推荐理由 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一两市主要指数延续震荡行情，成长类指数偏弱。两市成交额 1.05 万亿元，变 | | | | | | | 化不大。中证 1000 指数收 5877 点，跌 62 点，跌幅-1.05%；中证 500 指数收 5598 | | | | | | | 点，跌 28 点，跌幅-0.51%；沪深 300 指数收 3781 点，跌 5 点，跌幅-0.14%；上证 | | | | | | | 50 指数收 2651 点，涨 2 点，涨幅 0.09%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是游戏 | | ETF、 | | | | | 银行 ETF 基金、科创芯片 50ETF、绿电 ETF、钢铁 ETF，跌幅居前的是房地产 ETF、 | | | | | | | 机器人 ETF 易方达、建 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "slightly long" rating for TL, T, TF, and TS in the macro and financial bond sector [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The first - quarter economic data is good, with policy support and export - rushing factors. The GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.2%. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in March increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the profits in the first quarter continued to recover. Future policies may include timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After rising slowly in the morning and then falling back, they quickly rose due to important meeting news in the afternoon and then fluctuated and fell back. As of the close, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2506 rose 0.28%, the 10 - year T2506 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2506 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2506 fell 0.04% [1] 2. Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 250.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 509 billion yuan on the same day. On April 27, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 90 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.58% throughout the day, and that of DR007 was 1.64%. On April 27, the weighted average of DR001 was 1.61%, and that of DR007 was 1.71% [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On April 27, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with last Friday. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.50 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year increased by 0.10 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year increased by 0.01 BP to 1.66%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.24 BP to 1.93% [1] - **Policy Information**: On April 25, the Politburo meeting pointed out that policies such as timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts should be implemented to support the real economy, consolidate the real estate market, and stabilize and activate the capital market [1][3] - **Economic Data**: In March, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and in the first quarter, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1.50936 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The profits of the manufacturing industry in the first quarter increased by 7.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing in March increased by 14.3% year - on - year [1][3] 3. Market Logic - The good economic data in the first quarter is due to policy support and export - rushing factors. It is believed that the high tariffs between China and the US are difficult to resolve in the short term. The Politburo meeting proposed policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [3] 4. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周五铁矿主力 2509 合约收于 709.0，下跌 1.59%。次主力 2505 合约收于 760.5，下 跌 1.36%。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 指出，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发 展格局，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩 | | | | | 大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定 | | | | | 性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观 | | | | | 政策，用好用足更 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | 【行情复盘】 上周五生猪期货窄幅震荡，LH2507 合约日涨幅 0.33%，收于 13540 元/吨；LH2509 合约日涨幅 0.14%，收于 14150 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、周末猪价小幅下跌，27 日全国生猪均价 14.79 元/公斤，较 25 日跌 0.15 元/公 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 斤；今日早间猪价北稳南弱，东北弱稳至 14-14.8 元/公斤，山东弱稳至 14.6-15.3 元/公斤，河南稳定至 14.6-15.1 元/公斤，四川稳定至 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，广东稳 定至 15.4-16 元/公斤，广西稳定至 14-14.4 元/公斤。 | | | | 2、1 月，全国中大猪存栏同比增加 1.1%，规模场同比增加 4%；1 月全国新生仔猪同 比增加 2.5%，2 月同比增幅超过 10%。 | | | | 3、官方口径显示我国 25 年 3 月能繁母猪存栏 4039 万头，同比增加 47 万头，是正 | | | | 常保有量的 103.6%。 4、4 月 27 日生猪肥标价差为 0 ...

格林大华期货油脂油料期货月报 2025年04月25日 从业资格：F0276812 油脂油料月报 更多精彩内容 请关注 官方微信 期货从业资格证号：F0276812 期货交易咨询号：Z0011862 格林大华期货 研究员：刘锦 13633849418 宏观、供应和资金 油粕宽幅振荡 多空逻辑： 利多因素：中美贸易争端、中加菜籽反倾销调查、美豆生长关键期、美国生柴政策带动 的美豆油强势上涨、中印需求预期回升、国内油粕库存偏低、海关巴西大豆检验通关缓慢、 油粕外资多头资金配置、、 利空因素：美俄关系修复，OPEC+5月份供应增加，国际原油价格承压，巴西大豆上市压 力加大，国内菜籽油库存5年历史新高，油脂消费淡季 操作建议：油脂宽幅振荡，豆油2509支撑位7200，压力位8500；棕榈油2509合约支撑位 7700，压力位9000；菜籽油2509合约支撑位8750，压力位10000；双粕震荡，豆粕2509支 撑位2710，压力位3100；菜粕2509合约支撑位2370，压力位2780 风险提示：1、国际原油价格震荡中选择方向，OPEC+成员国5月份增产，国际原油有承压 预期 2、印尼B40计划能否推行是后续棕榈油走势 ...