Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bearish [2] Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures rebounded, but with persistent seasonal supply pressure and rising commercial cotton inventories, Zhengzhou cotton hit a monthly low. The textile industry entered the off - season, with weakening domestic demand and limited growth in the return of foreign trade orders. Spinning mills had a weak willingness to replenish stocks, so Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak operation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 234,402 lots, and the open interest was 941,760 lots. The settlement prices were 13,415 yuan/ton for January, 13,420 yuan/ton for May, and 13,590 yuan/ton for September. The ICE December contract's settlement price was 62.57 cents, up 21 points; the March contract was 64.39 cents, up 33 points; the May contract was 65.57 cents, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 63,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 17, the basis price of machine - picked new cotton in Shihezi, Xinjiang, for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 1060 - 1100 yuan/ton, stable compared to last Friday, and the pick - up price was 14,460 - 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton from last Friday [2] - According to the USDA's November 2025 US cotton supply - demand forecast report, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, the harvested area was 44.729 million mu, and the abandonment rate remained unchanged at 20.7% [2] - In September, Indonesia imported 26,000 tons of cotton, a 35.5% decrease from the previous month (about 40,000 tons) and a 30.3% decrease year - on - year (37,000 tons), the smallest monthly import since March [2] - On November 17, the cotton yarn futures increased in volume and decreased in open interest, with prices falling, while the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The textile market was lukewarm, with most cotton yarn prices stable, some enterprises offering small discounts, and overall good sales of Xinjiang cotton yarn, especially for 40S and 60S yarns [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures rebounded, but due to continuous seasonal supply pressure, rising commercial cotton inventories, the textile industry's off - season, weakening domestic demand, limited growth in the return of foreign trade orders, and spinning mills' weak willingness to replenish stocks, Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak operation [2] Trading Strategy - Close the put option and hold the call option for the previous at - the - money straddle option of the 01 contract; hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,500 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy is entering the top region due to the continuous wrong policies in the United States [2] - The liquidity crunch is the core factor driving the stock market decline, and further decline may lead to "mechanical" selling [1] - Top investors are taking a more cautious stance on high - valuation tech stocks due to rising systemic risks [1] - The importance of retail investors in the US stock market, especially in the options market, is increasing [1][2] - AI and robotics are considered the only way to get rid of the debt crisis and prevent US bankruptcy [1] - AI may lead to a slowdown in corporate recruitment and a "quiet period" in the labor market [1] - The loose financial environment supporting the AI boom is reaching an inflection point [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Finance - Morgan Chase believes the liquidity crunch drives the stock market decline, and further drops may trigger "mechanical" selling [1] - Billionaire Peter Thiel's fund, Bridgewater, and SoftBank have reduced their holdings in NVIDIA, and top investors are cautious about high - valuation tech stocks [1] - Retail investors are among the largest net buyers of the US stock market this year, and their trading volume in the options market has exceeded that of institutions [1][2] - Musk thinks AI and robotics are the only way to avoid US bankruptcy due to unsustainable federal debt growth [1] - US White House economic advisor Hasset says AI boosts labor productivity but may slow corporate recruitment [1] - Amazon raised $15 billion through bond issuance, and the total bond issuance of four major tech giants in the past two months exceeded $80 billion. The financial environment supporting the AI boom is changing [1] - UBS's chairman discussed the possibility of relocating its headquarters to the US due to Switzerland's capital requirements [1] - India's October goods trade deficit hit a record high of $41.7 billion due to increased gold imports and high - tariff impacts on US exports [1] Global Economic Logic - The end of the US government shutdown will inject trillions of dollars from the US Treasury's general account into the market [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - Huawei announced "ten major inventions" in computing power infrastructure and storage [2] - Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that at least $5 trillion is needed for the AI data center construction boom in the next five years [2] - US data center electricity demand is rising, and a 44 - gigawatt power gap is expected by 2028 [2] - US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are almost exhausted, and consumer slowdown has spread to the middle - income group [2] - US corporate layoffs in October reached 153,074, mainly in the technology and warehousing industries, a significant increase from September and almost three times that of last year [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for bottle chips) is "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips is expected to oscillate in the short - term with the main contract reference range of 5630 - 5800 yuan/ton, and the recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Market Conditions - On the night of Tuesday, the main price of bottle chips dropped 28 yuan to 5706 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell 10 yuan to 5735 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips dropped 20 yuan to 5780 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 763 lots to 5.68 million lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 609 lots to 5.7 million lots [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, China's polyester bottle chip production was 33.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69 million tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 72.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%. The production cost was 5271 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 37 yuan/ton, and the weekly production gross profit was - 128 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [1] - In September 2025, China exported 46.77 million tons of polyester bottle chips, 5.3 million tons less than the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 480.91 million tons [1] - Due to the instability of the Russia - Ukraine situation and potential risks from US sanctions, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures December contract rose 0.83 dollars/barrel to 60.74 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. The ICE Brent oil futures January contract rose 0.69 dollars/barrel to 64.89 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.07%. China's INE crude oil futures 2601 contract rose 1.5 to 462.3 yuan/ton, and rose 3.4 to 465.7 yuan/ton at night [1] - The end of the US government shutdown, hawkish statements from Fed officials, and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting have suppressed the temporarily warming market sentiment [1] Market Logic - This week, the supply of bottle chips has changed little. Downstream factories mainly replenish inventory rigidly, and the market has a cautious expectation for future demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased month - on - month in September. Affected by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber and polyester industry, the price soared. Although the relaxation of Indian policies is beneficial to polyester products, the impact on bottle chips is limited. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main indices of the two markets continued to weaken on Tuesday due to the sluggish external market. However, the China stock market is expected to have another prosperous year in 2026, with the MSCI China Index having a 14% upside potential by the end of next year [1][2][3] - Insurance institutions significantly increased their direct stock investment in the first three quarters of this year, and a large portion of the new insurance funds was invested in stocks, mainly A - shares [1][2][3] - In the context of the unclear Fed interest - rate outlook, US stock funds are rotating from expensive growth stocks to more defensive sectors, and the Shanghai Composite Index may return to the previous trading range before the end of the year [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Affected by the sluggish external market, the main indices of the two markets weakened on Tuesday, while the semiconductor equipment sector strengthened. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.92 trillion yuan. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4568, down 29 points (-0.65%); the SSE 50 Index closed at 3003, down 9 points (-0.30%); the CSI 500 Index closed at 7151, down 84 points (-1.17%); the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7448, down 74 points (-1.00%) [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were media ETFs, semiconductor equipment ETFs, etc., and those with the highest losses were battery 50 ETFs, chemical 50 ETFs, etc. Among the sector indices of the two markets, e - commerce, digital media, etc. led the gains, while coke processing, sodium - battery, etc. led the losses [1] - The CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 300 index futures saw net inflows of 19, 15, and 13 billion yuan in settled funds respectively [1] 3.2 Important Information - UBS Investment Bank's China equity strategy research head pointed out in the 2026 outlook report that the China stock market is expected to have another good year, and the MSCI China Index has a 14% upside potential by the end of next year [1][2][3] - In the first three quarters of this year, the direct stock investment of insurance institutions increased by about 1.19 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, with an increase of nearly 50%. Insurance funds allocated more than one - third of their new funds to stocks, mainly A - shares [1][2][3] - Ubtech released a mass - production and delivery video of the industrial humanoid robot Walker S2 [1] - Ant Group entered the AI assistant market, launching the all - modality general AI assistant "Lingguang" [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that liquidity tightness is the core factor driving the stock market decline, and further declines may trigger "mechanical" selling [1] - Billionaire Peter Thiel's fund, Bridgewater Associates, and SoftBank reduced their positions in NVIDIA. High - valuation tech stocks face more caution from top investors due to rising systemic risks [2] - Retail investors are one of the largest net buyers in the US stock market this year, especially in the options market, where their trading volume has exceeded that of institutions [2] - Morgan Stanley believes that repurchases are crucial for the normal operation of the US dollar money market, and the easing of liquidity pressure is expected [2] - Musk believes that AI and robotics are the only ways to avoid the US debt crisis and bankruptcy [2] - The US White House economic advisor said that AI may slow down corporate recruitment and lead the labor market into a "quiet period" [2] - The chairman of UBS discussed the possibility of relocating its headquarters to the US with the US Treasury Secretary [2] - LME plans to introduce permanent front - month lending rules to avoid squeezing risks [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that a "last wave of supply" will lead to a severe oversupply in the global oil market in 2026, but the market will turn to supply shortage from 2027 [2] 3.3 Market Logic - Affected by the sluggish external market, the main indices of the two markets weakened on Tuesday. The China stock market is expected to perform well in 2026, supported by favorable factors such as innovation development. The insurance industry's premium income increased by about 520 billion yuan from January to September, which can bring a net monthly capital inflow of 150 billion yuan to the stock market [2] - Huawei announced "ten major inventions" results, and the US is planning or building data center projects with a total capacity of over 45 gigawatts and an expected investment of over 2.5 trillion US dollars [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes that China will win the AI competition, and Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets [2][3] 3.4 Market Outlook - Affected by the external market, the main indices of the two markets weakened on Tuesday. Insurance institutions increased their direct stock investment significantly this year. The China stock market is expected to have a good year in 26, and Chinese capital may be migrating to stocks [3] - In the context of the unclear Fed interest - rate outlook, US stock funds are rotating, and the Shanghai Composite Index may return to the previous trading range before the end of the year. It is recommended to mainly allocate long positions in stock index futures based on the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices for range trading [3] 3.5 Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, given the unclear Fed interest - rate outlook, the Shanghai Composite Index may return to the previous trading range before the end of the year. It is recommended to mainly allocate long positions based on the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices for range trading [3] - For stock index option trading, as the stock index is in a wide - range oscillation pattern, it is advisable to be cautious with long - term, deep - out - of - the - money call options [3]

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1210.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.75%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1710.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.43%。昨日夜盘，Jm2601 收于 1167.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 3.55%；J2601 合约收于 1657.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 3.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中钢协数据显示，2025 年 10 月，全国生产粗钢 7200 万吨、同比下降 12.1%，日产 | | | | | 232.26 万吨/日，环比下降 5.2%；重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 6369.16 万吨，同比下 | | | | | 降 6.7%，日产 205.46 万吨，环比增长 1.9%。 | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 偏空 | 2、据国家能源集团，2025 年前 10 个月，国家能源 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 18 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.20%报 4045.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 1.25%报 50.05 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.04%报 931.24 元/克，沪银跌 0.17%报 11983 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 11 月 17 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 2.57 吨，当前持仓量为 1041.43 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日持平，当前持仓量为 15218.42 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 12 月降息 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，下午收盘2601合约涨跌幅0%，收于2182元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价小幅上调。东北地区深加工企 | | | | | 业收购价2033元/吨，较上周五涨15元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2248元/吨， | | | | | 较上周五涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格小幅上涨。昨日锦州港15%水二等新 | | | | | 季玉米收购价2170-2180元/吨左右，较上周五涨20元/吨；蛇口港成交价2345元/吨 | | | | | ，较上周五涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、17日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0张，共计69337张。 | | | 玉米 | 低多 | 4、玉米饲用性价比提升。WIND 数据显示截至11月17日，山东地区小麦-玉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Upgrade PLS to Overweight, MIN, IGO, LTR to Neutral [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for energy storage systems (ESS) will lead the market into a deficit, and short - term and long - term prices are upgraded [1] - In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of battery production will improve, and the potential for price increase will emerge. The explosion of ESS demand and supply disruptions of Chinese lithium mines jointly drive up lithium prices and industry prosperity [7] - Currently, the demand expectation for lithium carbonate is intensifying. With strong reality and strong expectation, the price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly and is expected to remain strong above 90,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summaries According to Related Information Information about Lithium Carbonate Demand and Supply in 2025 and 2026 - In 2025, the global demand for lithium carbonate is estimated to be 155 tons, while the supply capacity is over 170 tons, resulting in an excess of about 20 tons and low prices this year [6] - In 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow by 30% to 190 tons, and the supply capacity is estimated to increase by about 25 tons, with a basically balanced supply - demand situation and potential for price increase [6] Information about Lithium Carbonate Price Changes - On November 16, the market's bullish sentiment fermented after the statement of Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, and the price of lithium carbonate exceeded 90,000 yuan/ton, rising to 93,800 yuan/ton with a 7.47% increase [7] - If the demand growth rate of lithium carbonate in 2026 exceeds 30% or even reaches 40%, the price may break through 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [6] Information about the Market Outlook - The resumption of production at Xiawo will partially ease market tension but is difficult to change the trend of the supply - demand gap [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The iron ore market showed a rising trend on Friday and in the night session. However, the overall market is affected by multiple factors. On the demand side, the real - estate investment and related steel - using indicators in the black building materials industry are deteriorating, and the domestic demand for steel is weak. The decline in crude steel and pig iron production also has a negative impact on iron ore demand. On the supply side, the production of five major steel products and inventory have decreased, and the inventory of imported iron ore in ports and steel mills has increased. Considering these factors, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate, and short - term band operations within a certain range are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore prices rose on Friday and continued to rise in the night session [1]. Important Information - Central Bank's Tao Ling proposed to restrict the "involution - type competition" in the financial industry and maintain a reasonable profit margin [1]. - The National Bureau of Statistics stated that it is necessary to continue to expand domestic demand and optimize the market competition environment to promote a reasonable recovery of prices [1]. - In October, China's automobile production was 3.279 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. From January to October, the national real - estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% [1]. Market Logic - Demand side: In the first 10 months, the real - estate investment growth rate continued to decline, and the growth rates of new construction, construction, and completion of houses continued to drop. The steel - using indicators of the black building materials industry deteriorated. The narrow - sense infrastructure investment growth rate was - 0.1%, the first negative value since 2021. The manufacturing investment growth rate dropped to 2.7%, the lowest level since 2021. The domestic demand for steel was weak. The year - on - year growth rate of crude steel production continued to decline, and pig iron production decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, which was negative for iron ore demand [1]. - Supply side: The production of five major steel products and inventory decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in ports and steel mills increased. Affected by the lifting of production restrictions in some areas of Hebei, the daily output of molten iron increased by 2.66 million tons week - on - week. Recently, more building material steel mills resumed production, which was positive for iron ore demand [1]. Trading Strategy - Short - term band operations within a range are recommended. For the main 2601 contract, the pressure level is 833, and the support level is 750 [1].

Group 1: Report on Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance Data - In November, the customs clearance vehicles at Ganqimao Port remained at a high level. As of November 15th, the average daily customs clearance vehicles were 1382, and on the 15th, the customs clearance vehicles increased significantly to 1659 per day [3] - The table shows the customs clearance data from October 28, 2025, to November 15, 2025, including the number of customs clearance vehicles, AGV numbers, total customs clearance vehicles, changes, and short - haul freight rates. The short - haul freight rate remained at 90 during this period [6]