Ge Lin Qi Huo
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格林大华期货中国宏观经济4月报:实施更加积极有为的宏观政策-20250425
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 14:51
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - China's Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of 5.2%. Q1 fixed - asset investment performed well, with infrastructure investment accelerating in March, and consumption growth significantly faster than in Q4 2024. In March, industrial production accelerated, and export growth exceeded expectations. The good economic data in Q1 was due to policy support and export - frontloading. The high tariffs between China and the US are difficult to resolve in the short term. China needs to implement more proactive macro - policies, use fiscal and monetary policies, and boost domestic demand to deal with external shocks [3][11][63] 3. Key Points by Category Economic Growth - Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of 5.2% [3] - Q1 secondary industry grew 5.9% year - on - year, and the tertiary industry grew 5.3% year - on - year [6] Investment - From January to March, national fixed - asset investment grew 4.2% year - on - year, faster than the 4.1% in January - February and the market expectation of 4.0%. General infrastructure investment (including power) grew 11.5% year - on - year, manufacturing investment grew 9.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 9.9% year - on - year [9][11] Real Estate - From January to March, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 3.0% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 2.1% year - on - year. In April (first 20 days), the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased 16% year - on - year. The national second - hand housing price is still at the bottom [14][15][18] Industry - In March, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises grew 7.7% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of 5.9%. The manufacturing added value grew 7.9% [23] Consumption - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 5.9% year - on - year. Benefiting from the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, the sales of some consumer goods increased significantly. From January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 4.6% year - on - year [25][28] Foreign Trade - In March, China's exports grew 12.4% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased 4.3% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN, the EU, and the US all increased. In April (first 20 days), South Korea's exports decreased 5.2% year - on - year [30][31][36] Finance - In March, the new social financing scale was 5.89 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 3.64 trillion yuan, both exceeding market expectations. At the end of March, M2 grew 7.0% year - on - year, and M1 grew 1.6% year - on - year [39][42][45] Price - In March, CPI decreased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 2.5% year - on - year. The core CPI increased 0.5% year - on - year [48][52] Employment - In March, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, the same as the same period last year [60] Global Economy - On April 22, the IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, and also lowered the growth forecasts for the US, the eurozone, and China [61][62]
市场抛盘枯竭,政策利好提振
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 14:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share market shows continuous volume contraction, indicating exhaustion of selling pressure, and the market is waiting for more positive signals. The stock index is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, and short - term fluctuations should be ignored. The far - month contracts of stock index futures continue to trade at a discount [7][16]. - The Politburo meeting decides to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies, including making full use of fiscal and monetary policies, accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and taking measures to support the real economy, innovation, consumption, and foreign trade. It also focuses on stabilizing and activating the capital market and promoting the healthy development of the real estate market [15][18][19]. - Various incremental funds are continuously increasing their positions in ETFs. As of April 18, the total scale of ETFs reached 4.01 trillion yuan, with equity - based ETFs accounting for over 80%. The trading volume of ETFs has increased during market fluctuations, which is significant for stabilizing the market and expectations [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - A - share market volume shrank to 0.91 trillion yuan on April 18, indicating exhaustion of selling pressure [7]. - The U.S. market experienced a rebound in the Nasdaq under the pressure of stock - bond - exchange triple - kill and the easing of reciprocal tariffs [9]. Policy Support - The Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, such as timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, creating new structural monetary policy tools, and establishing new policy - based financial instruments [15][18][19]. - The People's Bank of China supports the Central Huijin Company to increase its holdings of stock market index funds and provides sufficient re - loans when necessary to maintain the stable operation of the capital market [15]. ETF Investment - As of April 18, the total scale of ETFs reached 4.01 trillion yuan, with equity - based ETFs exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan, accounting for over 80%. The net subscription of equity - based ETFs since April 7 exceeded 230 billion yuan [20]. - The scale of Huatai - Berry CSI 300 ETF reached 375.712 billion yuan as of April 18, being the largest ETF in China [20]. Economic Data - In March, China's export amount was 313.9 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% [21]. - The monthly value of social consumer goods retail in March was 3.67 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [23]. - The monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment in March was 2.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [25]. - The monthly value of infrastructure investment in March was 2.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year growth rate of 12.6% [27]. - In March, the monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales area stabilized [29]. - In March, industrial added value increased by 0.44% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year cumulatively, with an accelerating growth rate [31]. U.S. Economic Data - In March, U.S. retail and food sales increased by 1.4% month - on - month, indicating strong consumption [47]. - In February, U.S. commodity imports were 328.9 billion US dollars, the second - highest level, with a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [49]. - In February, the U.S. job openings reached 7.56 million, an increase of 200,000, and the voluntary resignation rate was 2%, indicating a tightening labor market [60]. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: Wait for the end of the sideways consolidation. Be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and ignore short - term fluctuations. The far - month contracts of stock index futures are expected to continue to trade at a discount [16][66][68]. - Stock index options trading: Suspend the operation of deep - out - of - the - money call options on the far - month stock index and wait for the market to break upward [70].
格林大华期货养殖业月报-20250425
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 14:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, corn futures traded within a range, while hog and egg futures first rose and then declined. The report suggests a long - term range - bound operation for corn, a low - buying strategy in the medium term, and a short - term bullish trend. For hogs, the supply is expected to increase in 2025, with short - term price fluctuations between 14 - 15 yuan/kg, and medium - to long - term supply pressure. For eggs, the supply is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the inventory may first decrease and then increase after the May Day holiday [6][10][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Macro Logic - The tariff event affects the global corn market in terms of price, supply, and trade flow, and impacts the domestic corn market mainly at the emotional level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact of the tariff event on the global grain market [12][101]. Industry Logic - The corn market may enter a passive inventory - building cycle. Key factors to watch include the auction policies of targeted rice/imported corn and grain import policies [13][102]. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is gradually tightening, while the supply - demand of US corn remains relatively loose. In China, there is a long - term corn production - demand gap, and the substitution pricing logic remains unchanged. The import volume in the 24/25 season is expected to decrease significantly, and the domestic supply - demand pattern may shift from loose to basically balanced. In the medium term, after the seasonal supply pressure is released, the supply may gradually tighten. In the second quarter, focus on the policy - grain release rhythm, wheat substitution scale, and channel selling mentality [13][102]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, the pig production capacity increases, and the supply of hogs enters an upward cycle. The存栏 of egg - laying and meat - producing poultry remains high, so the feed consumption maintains a rigid demand. The deep - processing consumption is generally stable with a slight increase, providing rigid support for corn prices. In the second quarter, focus on the inventory - building efforts of downstream feed enterprises and the changes in hog/poultry存栏 [13][102]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short term, domestic grass - roots grain sales are nearing completion, port inventories are declining from high levels, and spot prices are fluctuating. In the medium term, the supply may gradually tighten, but the release of policy - grain sources and the expected wheat substitution may limit the upward price space. In the long term, the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be emphasized. In May, focus on supply variables such as wheat substitution and policy - grain auctions [14][103]. Trading Strategy - Long - term range - bound operation; medium - term low - buying strategy; short - term bullish trend. For the 2507 contract, watch whether it can break through the 2340 - 2350 pressure level. If it breaks through effectively, the expected price range will move up to 2370 - 2380. For the 2509 contract, if it effectively stands above 2350, the expected price range will move up to 2380 - 2400; otherwise, maintain a range - trading strategy [14][103]. Hogs Macro Logic - Domestically, focus on the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices. In March 2025, the CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and factors such as the Spring Festival month - shift narrowed the year - on - year decline and significantly increased the month - on - month figure [56][104]. Industry Logic - Against the background of the normalization of post - African swine fever diseases, passive capacity reduction leads to significant periodic fluctuations in hog prices, shortening the price fluctuation cycle but increasing the frequency. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding sector is not over, and enterprises with low costs and good financial conditions continue to increase capacity utilization and expand market share. The slaughter plans of the top 30 breeding groups in 2025 are still expected to increase year - on - year [57][105]. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Excluding the impact of winter diseases, the hog supply in 2025 enters an upward cycle. The sow存栏 data shows a high level, and the production indicators of some leading breeding enterprises are improving, increasing the supply pressure. The number of newborn piglets has been increasing, and the post - Spring Festival slaughter weight is higher than in previous years [58][106]. - **Demand**: Pork consumption is relatively rigid, mainly following seasonal patterns in the short - to medium - term, and long - term attention should be paid to changes in the consumption structure [74]. Market Viewpoint - In the short term, the market supply is relatively balanced, and the national hog price fluctuates between 14 - 15 yuan/kg. As the weather gets warmer, the supply may exceed demand. In the medium term, the high number of newborn piglets and increasing slaughter weight will lead to continuous supply pressure in the next six months. In the long term, if diseases are excluded, the hog production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [59][107]. Operation Suggestion - The futures market has already priced in the downward expectation. After the Spring Festival, it has been trading on the repair logic. The medium - term trend is range - bound, and the short - term trend is weakly bearish. The support level for the 2507 contract is 13300 - 13400, and the pressure level is 13700. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13800 - 13900, and the pressure level is 14600 - 14700 [60][108]. Eggs Macro Logic - Domestically, focus on raw material prices and CPI changes. Currently, the prices of meat and vegetables are stable, and the macro - driving force is weak [78][110]. Industry Logic - The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four consecutive years. Driven by profits, the large - scale rate of egg - laying chicken breeding continues to increase, which will change the breeding subject structure and production efficiency [78][110]. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: The存栏 of grandparent - stock egg - laying chickens has increased, and the import proportion has risen significantly. The存栏 of laying hens is slowly increasing and remains at a high level. The culling rhythm of old hens is slower than expected due to breeding profits [79][111]. - **Demand**: Historically, consumption increases slightly month - on - month in May. After the downstream stocking before the May Day holiday is basically completed, the current inventories in the production and circulation links are rising. It is expected that the inventory will be digested during the May Day holiday, and downstream consumption will support the spot price after the inventory adjustment [79][111]. Feed Cost - As of April 24, the feed cost per catty of eggs is 3.11 yuan, and the average weekly profit per catty of fresh eggs is 0.18 yuan. Rising feed costs support egg prices. The impact of feed prices on breeding profits should be monitored, as stable feed prices may slow down the culling rhythm, while rising prices may accelerate it [80][112]. Inventory Level - After the Spring Festival, the inventory declined from a high level and reached the lowest in early April, maintaining a low level for about two weeks. In late April, the inventory started to rise rapidly. As of April 24, the average production - link inventory was 1.16 days, the same as in 2024, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.28 days, compared with 1.03 days in 2024. It is expected that the supply will increase in May, and the inventory may first decrease and then increase after the May Day holiday [81][114]. Culling Rhythm - Since April, the culling rhythm of old hens has slowed down significantly, and the price of old hens has stopped falling and started to rise. As of April 24, the average price of old hens in Xinji was 5 yuan/kg, compared with 4.2 yuan/kg in 2024. The weekly culling age of old hens was 536 days, compared with 501 days in 2024. The current culling scale is lower than expected, and the large - scale culling time should be closely watched [82][113]. Variety Viewpoint - In the medium term, based on the data of chick replenishment and hen culling, the存栏 of laying hens is expected to increase from March to June. Insufficient culling willingness and forced molting may increase the supply pressure in the second quarter, and breeding profits may turn negative. In the long term, if the capacity reduction in the second quarter is less than expected, the supply pressure may continue into the second half of the year; otherwise, the pressure may be significantly relieved. Currently, the willingness to cull hens is increasing, and the impact of the culling rhythm on far - month contracts should be noted [83][115]. Trading Strategy - The report previously suggested paying attention to short - selling opportunities after the spot price peaks. The previously suggested pressure levels of 3180 - 3200 for the 2507 contract and 3880 - 3900 for the 2509 contract have been verified by the market. If the 2507 contract effectively breaks below the MA20 moving average and the 2509 contract effectively breaks below 3800, further downward space may open; otherwise, maintain a range - trading strategy. The 2506 main contract has fallen below the MA60 moving average following the spot price. Currently, the futures price is significantly at a discount to the spot price, and the short - term downward space should not be overestimated. Wait for further spot price movements [84][116].
格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250425
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 03:12
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “slightly long” rating for Treasury bonds in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View - The first - quarter economic data of China is good with GDP growing 5.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.2%. However, due to the US tariff increase, the Chinese economy will face challenges in the second quarter, and domestic incremental hedging policies may be introduced. Treasury futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, Treasury futures opened higher across the board. After rising in the morning, they declined. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury futures main contract TL2506 fell 0.08%, the 10 - year T2506 fell 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2506 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2506 fell 0.05% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 2180 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 2455 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275 billion yuan [1] - **Funds market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.60% (1.63% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.72% (1.65% the previous day) [1] - **Cash bond market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The 2 - year yield rose 0.56 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.91 BP to 1.55%, the 10 - year rose 0.29 BP to 1.66%, and the 30 - year rose 0.48 BP to 1.93% [1] - **Treasury bond issuance**: On April 24, the Ministry of Finance issued three special Treasury bonds, including 165 billion yuan of 5 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.45%, 50 billion yuan of 20 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.98%, and 71 billion yuan of 30 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.88% [1] - **Sino - US trade**: As of April 24, there were no Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The US should cancel all unilateral tariffs on China through equal dialogue [1] - **MLF operation**: The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on April 25, with 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan [1][3] 3.3 Market Logic - The good first - quarter economic data is due to policy support and export rush. But the US tariff increase will pose challenges to the Chinese economy in the second quarter. The issuance of special Treasury bonds on April 24 did not significantly impact the funds market. The Wande All - A Index fell slightly on Thursday, and Treasury futures declined in the afternoon. The high Sino - US tariffs are difficult to resolve in the short - term [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3]
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250425
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 01:47
| 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | CBOT 玉米期货:隔夜 CBOT 玉米期货震荡收涨,主力合约日涨幅 0.78%。 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货: 隔夜玉米期货夜盘震荡偏弱,2507 合约夜盘收盘跌幅 0.04%,收于 | | | | | 2327 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示,昨日南北港口价格小幅上涨。鲅鱼圈(容重680-730 | | | | | /15%水)收购价2180-2200元/吨,较前一日涨10元/吨;锦州港(15%水/容重680-7 | | | | | 20)收购价2180-2200元/吨,较前一日涨10元/吨;蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2290元/ | | | | | 吨,较前一日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 2、昨日深加工企业收购价稳中有涨。东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业玉米主流收购 | | | | | 均价2110元/吨,较前一日涨2元/吨。华北黄淮地区重点企业主流收购均价2313元/ | | | | | ...
煤焦数据解读:2025年1-3月前十大煤炭国企产量
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-24 14:53
Report Summary 1. Core View - The total coal production of the top 10 coal - producing state - owned enterprises in China from January to March 2025 increased year - on - year, matching the overall domestic coal production trend. After the "good start" in the first quarter, the situation of coal supply surplus will intensify in the second quarter [1]. 2. Key Data - **Top 10 Coal Enterprises' Production**: The total production of the top 10 coal - producing state - owned enterprises from January to March 2025 was 590 million tons, an increase of 89.74 million tons year - on - year, accounting for 49.2% of the total production of enterprises above the designated size [1]. - **Individual Enterprise Production and Growth Rates**: - National Energy Group produced 154.28 million tons from January to March 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [1]. - Jinneng Holding Group produced 100.8 million tons, with a significant increase compared to 81.24 million tons in the same period of 2024 [1]. - Shandong Energy Group produced 67.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [1]. - China National Coal Group produced 67.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [1]. - Shaanxi Coal Group produced 63.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [1]. - Shanxi Coking Coal Group produced 46.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.4% [1]. - Huaneng Group produced 27.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.3% [1]. - Lu'an Chemical Group produced 24.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [1]. - State Power Investment Corporation produced 20.71 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [1]. - Henan Energy Group produced 18.81 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.2% (previous year's data was not disclosed) [1]. - **Shanxi Enterprises' Production Growth**: The three major coal enterprises in Shanxi Province (Jinneng Holding Coal Industry, Shanxi Coking Coal Group, and Lu'an Chemical Group) had significant production increases. Their combined production increased by 12.83 million tons year - on - year, matching the 20.68% increase in Shanxi's coal production from January to March 2025 [1].
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250424
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-24 00:34
Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [1] - Pig: Range trading [2] - Egg: High short [2] Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the domestic spot price fluctuates. In the medium - term, the supply pattern may tighten, but policy grain and wheat substitution may limit price increase. In the long - term, it follows the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [1]. - Pig: In the short - term, the supply is balanced, and the price fluctuates around 15 yuan/kg. In the medium - term, the supply pressure will be realized in the next 6 months. In the long - term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized this year [2]. - Egg: This week, the social inventory is rising, and the spot price is weakening in the short - term. The supply of laying hens is expected to increase from March to June, and the spot price may face pressure during the rainy season [2][3]. Summary by Category Corn Market Review - Yesterday, the corn futures fluctuated. The 2507 contract closed with a daily increase of 0.35%, at 2324 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - Yesterday, the prices of north - south ports and deep - processing enterprises rose slightly. On April 23, the corn trading of CCDC had different transaction rates and prices [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: The domestic grass - roots grain sales are ending, port inventory is decreasing, and the spot price fluctuates. Medium - term: Import and substitution may decrease, but policy grain and wheat substitution may limit price increase. Long - term: It follows the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [1]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Range operation; Medium - term: Low long; Short - term: Rebound. If the 2507 contract stands above MA60, the expected price is 2340 - 2350. The support of the 2509 contract moves up to 2320 - 2330, and pay attention to whether 2350 can be broken [1]. Pig Market Review - Yesterday, the pig futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2507 contract had a daily decline of 0.59%, at 13590 yuan/ton; the LH2509 contract had a daily decline of 0.93%, at 14365 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - On April 23, the national average pig price was 15.05 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day. There are also data on the inventory of medium - large pigs, newborn piglets, and fertile sows [2]. Market Logic - Short - term: The supply is balanced, and the price fluctuates between 14 - 15 yuan/kg. As the weather gets warmer, the supply may exceed demand. Medium - term: The supply pressure will be realized in the next 6 months. Long - term: The pig production capacity will continue to be realized this year [2]. Trading Strategy - The disk has already priced in the decline. After the Spring Festival, it has been trading the repair logic. The medium - term is in range operation, and the short - term is fluctuating weakly. The support of the 2507 contract is 13300 - 13400, and the pressure is 13700. The support of the 2509 contract is 14100 - 14200, and the pressure is 14650 - 14700 [2]. Egg Market Review - Yesterday, the egg futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The JD2506 contract had a daily decline of 0.13%, at 3026 yuan/500kg; the JD2507 contract had a daily decline of 0.16%, at 3118 yuan/500kg; the JD2509 contract had a daily increase of 0.31%, at 3825 yuan/500kg [2]. Important Information - On the 23rd, the national egg price was weakly stable. The inventory of production and circulation links increased. The price of old hens was mostly stable. There are also data on egg size ratio, laying hen inventory, chicken苗 sales, and poultry production [2][3]. Market Logic - This week, the social inventory is rising, and the spot price is weakening in the short - term. The supply of laying hens is expected to increase from March to June, and the spot price may face pressure during the rainy season [2][3]. Trading Strategy - Previously, it was suggested to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the spot price reached the peak. If the 2507 contract effectively breaks below the MA20 moving average and the 2509 contract effectively breaks below 3800, it may open further downward space; otherwise, maintain the range - trading idea [3].
煤焦数据解读:2025年1-3月炼焦煤进口国别数据
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 11:34
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the coking coal import data from January to March 2025 by country, highlighting changes in import volumes and trends compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - It points out that Mongolia's coal imports decreased, Russia's increased, and the US's are expected to drop significantly, while Canada and Australia showed growth [1] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Overall Import Data - From January to March 2025, the total coking coal imports were 27.43 million tons, a 2.02% increase from 26.89 million tons in the same period in 2024 [1] 3.2 Import Data by Country - **Mongolia**: Imported 10.86 million tons from January to March 2025, accounting for 39.60%, a 20.48% decrease from 13.66 million tons in the same period in 2024; in March, imports were 4.42 million tons, a 12.73% year - on - year decrease [1] - **Russia**: Imported 8.07 million tons from January to March 2025, accounting for 29.43%, a 21.17% increase from 6.66 million tons in the same period in 2024; in March, imports were 2.78 million tons, an 8.61% year - on - year increase [1] - **Canada**: Imported 2.93 million tons from January to March 2025, accounting for 10.70%, a 62.09% increase from 1.81 million tons in the same period in 2024 [1] - **USA**: Imported 2.83 million tons from January to March 2025, accounting for 10.33%, a 44.27% increase from 1.96 million tons in the same period in 2024; however, in March, imports dropped to 0.21 million tons from 1.36 million tons and 1.27 million tons in January and February respectively, and annual imports are expected to be much lower due to the trade war [1] - **Australia**: Imported 1.92 million tons from January to March 2025, accounting for 7.00%, a 14.54% increase from 1.68 million tons in the same period in 2024 [1] - **Indonesia**: Imported 0.65 million tons from January to March 2025, accounting for 2.35%, a 14.30% decrease from 0.75 million tons in the same period in 2024 [1]
市场快讯:黄金期权最高爆涨9800%注意末日期权波动率回落风险
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 09:03
格林大华期货研究院 证监许可 2011 1288号 格林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO., LTD. 市场快讯---黄金期权最高爆涨9800% 注意末日期权波动率回落风险 2025年4月23日 数据来源: Wind ×ロ 2025/04/23 收0.14 幅-46.15%(-0.12) 量2111 换0.00% 额997000.00 黄金2505C888 日线 前复权 MA5:0.30 2025/04/15-2025/04/23(7日)▼ 1.98 1.98 3920.00 1.34 0.70 VOL(5.10.20) VOL:2111 VMA5:1331 VMA10:0 VMA20:0 2000 10 00000 ll | 成交量 22:00 57.64% 57.64% > 1、4月22日,国际金价再创历史新高,盘中一度突破3500美元。上 海金盘中涨超830元。 55.07% 55.07% > 2、黄金期权波动率随之飙升,开盘即从20%升至30%,盘中一度升至 52.50% 250% 近50%。部分虚值合约波动率超80%。 > 沪金2505期权合约上演了一场"末日轮"行情, ...
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250423
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 01:36
联系方式:010-56711796 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 23 日星期三 研究员:纪晓云 从业资格:F3066027 交易咨询资格:Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Jm2509 合约收于 928.5,环比上一交易日收盘下跌 2.52%。J2505 合约收于 1530.5,环 比上一交易日收盘下跌 1.77%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、海关总署公布的最新数据显示,2025 年 3 月份,中国进口炼焦煤 858.8 万吨,同比 | | | | | 下降 4.6%,由升转降;环比 2 月进口量 884.6 万吨减少 25.8 万吨,下降 2.92%。1-3 | | | | | 月炼焦煤累计进口量同比增长 2.0%。 | | | | | 2、4 月 22 日吕梁孝义市场炼焦煤线上竞拍,成交价小幅下降,高硫主焦煤 A10 ...