研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 22 日星期二 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一两市主要指数在政策利好鼓舞下震荡上行，成长类指数涨幅居前。两市成交额 | | | | | 1.04 万亿元，上涨放量。中证 1000 指数收 5852 点，涨 120 点，涨幅 2.07%；中证 | | | | | 500 指数收 5642 点，涨 81 点，涨幅 1.47%；沪深 300 指数收 3784 点，涨 12 点， | | | | | 涨幅 0.33%；上证 50 指数收 2652 点，跌 4 点，跌幅-0.18%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨 | | | | | 幅居前的是黄金股 ETF、有色 50 ETF、有色金属 ETF、机器人 50ETF、科创医 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、特朗普表示，提出征收关税以来，中美一直保持联系，并对达成协议表示乐观。 | | | | | 2、白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特证实，美国总统特朗普及其团队正在研 | | | | | 究能否解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。 | | | | | 3、《纽约时报》报道，以色列计划最早于 5 月对伊朗核设施进行打击，但美国政 | | | | | 府经过"数月的内部辩论"后决定不支持该计划。 | | | | | 4、美国 4 月费城联储制造业商业前景指数中，代表企业原材料成本的"支付价格 | | | | | 指数"从 48.3 上升至 51.0，为 2022 年 7 ...

研究员：于军礼 从业资格号：Ｆ0247894 交易咨询号：Z0000112 3月美国核心CPI同比增速为2.8%，前值3.1%，环比增长0.2%，市场预期美联储6月降息 美国CPI同比（季调） source： wind,格林大华 % 美国CPI同比（季调） 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 0 2 4 6 8 10 美国CPI环比（季调） source： wind,格林大华 % 美国CPI环比（季调） 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/1 0 1 美国核心CPI同比（季调） source： wind,格林大华 % 美国核心CPI同比（季调） 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 2 4 6 美国核心CPI环比（季调） source： wind,格林大华 % 美国核心CPI环比（季调） 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/1 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 【全球经济展望】 美国财长表示希望与中国达成重大贸易协议。加利福尼亚州州长纽森宣布就关税问题起诉特朗普政府。对等关税冲 击告一段落。美国虽然大幅加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The current market has strong reality and weak expectations. The prices of futures contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with no driving force for a trending rise or fall for now. The recommended strategy is to wait for the right opportunity [1] Summary by Directory Black Sector - **Market Situation**: The current market has strong reality and weak expectations. This week, rebar production decreased while hot-rolled coil production increased. Both rebar and hot-rolled coils saw inventory reduction and an increase in apparent demand, showing characteristics of peak-season demand. Due to the decline in raw material prices, blast furnace profits are higher than electric arc furnace profits, and electric arc furnaces are experiencing significant losses [1] - **Expectations**: The impact of tariffs on export and entrepot trade needs further observation, and currently, no obvious impact has been seen. Whether the Politburo meeting at the end of April will introduce favorable policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts remains uncertain [1] - **Price Trend**: It is expected that futures prices will continue to fluctuate within a range, with no driving force for a trending rise or fall for now [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the right opportunity [1] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Review**: This week, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils continued to decline. On Friday, the main rebar 2510 contract closed at 3076, a weekly decline of 1.76% based on the closing price. The second main 2505 contract closed at 3003, a decline of 1.54%. The main hot-rolled coil 2510 contract closed at 3181, a decline of 0.66% based on the closing price. The second main 2505 contract closed at 3162, a decline of 0.60% [1] - **Important Information**: In Q1 2025, China's imports and exports of mechanical and electrical products were 5.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. In March 2025, China exported 1360000 machine tools, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. In Q1 2025, the cumulative export of machine tools was 3990000, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. In March 2025, China exported 13370 tractors, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In Q1 2025, the cumulative export of tractors was 40916, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. In March 2025, China exported 570000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%; from January to March, the cumulative export was 1540000, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. In March 2025, China exported 8150000 air conditioners, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%; from January to March, the cumulative export was 22200000, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%. In March 2025, the export of refrigerators was 7310000, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%; from January to March, the cumulative export was 19880000, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. In March 2025, the export of washing machines was 2820000, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%; from January to March, the cumulative export was 8270000, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In March 2025, the export of LCD TVs was 8400000, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%; from January to March, the cumulative export was 23490000, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - **Market Logic**: The current market has strong reality and weak expectations. This week, rebar production decreased while hot-rolled coil production increased. Both rebar and hot-rolled coils saw inventory reduction and an increase in apparent demand, showing characteristics of peak-season demand. Due to the decline in raw material prices, blast furnace profits are higher than electric arc furnace profits, and electric arc furnaces are experiencing significant losses. The impact of tariffs on export and entrepot trade needs further observation, and currently, no obvious impact has been seen. Whether the Politburo meeting at the end of April will introduce favorable policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts remains uncertain. Overall, it is expected that futures prices will continue to fluctuate within a range, with no driving force for a trending rise or fall for now [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the right opportunity [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The medium- and long-term low point of the A-share market has likely emerged, and the A-share market is expected to have an independent performance. The four major stock indices are bullish in the medium and long term, and short-term fluctuations can be ignored. It is advisable to buy out-of-the-money long-dated call options on the four major stock indices when the opportunity arises [2][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - This week, the main indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets moved sideways, and the market trading volume continued to shrink. On April 18 (Friday), the trading volume shrank to 910 billion yuan, indicating that market selling pressure was approaching exhaustion. The long-dated contracts of stock index futures closed at a discount [5] Important Information - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments jointly issued the "Work Plan for Improving the Quality of Service Consumption and Benefiting the People in 2025", proposing 48 specific tasks covering major industries and new business forms [6] - The total scale of the long-term stock investment pilot program for Chinese insurance funds has increased to 162 billion yuan, and the number of participating insurance companies has increased from 2 to 8. With the approval of Taikang's application, about 12 billion yuan of new long-term funds are expected to enter the stock market soon, and another 100 billion yuan of long-term funds are expected to enter the market gradually [7] - As of April 13, the total share of equity ETFs exceeded 2 trillion shares again, reaching 2.042713 trillion shares, an increase of 74.279 billion shares from the previous week, setting a new historical high [7] - In the first quarter of 2025, 668 A-share listed companies implemented share buybacks, with a total buyback amount of 29.374 billion yuan [7] - As of April 15, the total scale of 24 CSI 300 ETFs in the entire market reached 1.003867 trillion yuan, becoming the first broad-based ETF track in China with a market scale exceeding one trillion yuan [7] - Yongying, Yinhua, E Fund, and Harvest Fund submitted applications for the SSE STAR Market Comprehensive Enhanced ETF, which are the first batch of STAR Market comprehensive index enhanced ETF products in the industry [7] Market Logic - In March, China's export value was $313.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [8] - In March, the monthly value of social consumer goods retail was 3.6705 trillion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rate rose to 5.9% [13] - In March, the monthly value of fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry was 2.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, maintaining medium- to high-speed growth [17] Market Outlook - The long-dated contracts of stock index futures continued to close at a discount. On Friday, the trading volume of the two markets was only 910 billion yuan, indicating that selling pressure was approaching exhaustion. The medium- and long-term low point of the A-share market has likely emerged, and the one-time shock is basically over. The A-share market is expected to have an independent performance [21] Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The medium- and long-term low point of the A-share market has likely emerged, and the A-share market is expected to have an independent performance. The four major stock indices are bullish in the medium and long term, and short-term fluctuations can be ignored [2][22] - Stock index options trading: Buy out-of-the-money long-dated call options on the four major stock indices when the opportunity arises [2][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In March, China's raw coal production accelerated, with the output of industrial raw coal above designated size reaching 440 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and the growth rate 1.9 percentage points faster than that from January to February. From January to March, the output was 1.2 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, Shanxi continued to catch up on coal production. The consecutive growth of about 20.8% and 20.7% in January - February and March was a normal catch - up, not new production. The cumulative monthly average from January to March reached 109 million tons, and it was capable of achieving the annual target of 1.3 billion tons. The estimated output in 2025 was 1.31 billion tons, still far from the 1.378 billion tons in the 2023 peak - supply period [2] - Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang reached historical or same - period highs in single - month production in March. Inner Mongolia's output in March was 123 million tons, a historical high for a single month. It was estimated that the annual output would be 1.33 billion tons. Xinjiang's output in March was 51 million tons, close to its maximum supply capacity. The estimated annual output was 570 million tons [3] Summary by Directory National Raw Coal Production - In March, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 440 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 9.6% and a daily average output of 1.421 million tons. From January to March, the output was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [2] Provincial Raw Coal Production - Shanxi: In the first quarter of 2025, it continued to catch up on production. The cumulative monthly average from January to March reached 109 million tons, and the estimated 2025 output was 1.31 billion tons, compared with 1.27 billion tons in 2024 [2] - Inner Mongolia: The output in March was 123 million tons, a historical high for a single month. The estimated annual output was 1.33 billion tons [3] - Xinjiang: The output in March was 51 million tons, close to the maximum supply capacity. The estimated annual output was 570 million tons [3] - Other provinces: In March 2025, Heilongjiang produced 541 thousand tons, Shandong 803 thousand tons, Yunnan 821 thousand tons, Ningxia 887 thousand tons, Henan 938 thousand tons, Anhui 960 thousand tons, Guizhou 1383 thousand tons, Shaanxi 6924 thousand tons. The year - on - year changes were 39.13%, 8.70%, 7.57%, - 2.32%, 4.01%, 3.47%, 9.87%, 7.20% respectively [1]

市场快讯 -- 工业硅盘面跌破8800,谨慎跟空 2025年4月18日 4月18日工业硅开盘后持续弱势运行,跌破8900后颓势不减,截至写稿,盘面最低至 8755元/吨。 工业硅价格走势 多晶硅价格走势 > 工业硅及多晶硅开盘大幅跳空 > 基本面弱势,下游需求持续表现菱靡,行业供需矛盾持续加深 工业硅:工业硅下游需求表现萎靡。受到进出口政策影响,有机硅行业价格近期持续 大幅下跌,有机硅行业悲观情绪浓厚,行业或将进一步调整生产节奏,对工业硅需求 有大幅减弱预期;光伏行业430政策时间节点临近,终端需求迅速下滑,硅片及电池 报价下行,多晶硅价格大幅跳水,行业对于430后终端需求多持有悲观情绪,目前行 业自律协议下的低开工率或将再度下调,对工业硅雷求持续减弱。供应方面,由于外 贸市场多有悲观观点,目前工业硅主力05合约为西南平水期,06合约进入丰水期,西 南地区开工后外贸企业"出口转内需"对于行业目前供需矛盾将有进一步加深。需求 低迷叠加供应过剩,冲击市场情绪,导致价格持续下行,顺利跌破行业计算8900的成 本逻辑支撑线,悲观情绪带动下品种有所超跌,投资谨慎跟空。 格林大华 期货研究所 证监许可 2011 1288 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 农林畜 2025年04月18日 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格证号：F0242716 交易咨询证号：Z0011864 联系方式： 0371-65617380 题目 2025年一季度末生猪产业数据的相关 思考 目录 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 1、'同比增长'有效意义不足 证监许可【2011】1288号 2、能繁母猪数据的问题与思考 正文： 4月16日上午，2025年一季度国民经济运行情况新闻发布会上公布了我国一季度生猪产业 相关数据，具体如下： 成文时间：2025年04月18日星期五 问题1: 2月末能繁母猪存栏4066万头、 3月末4039万头，能 够说明环比减少吗？ 问题2: 2023年一季度末能繁母猪存栏为4305万头、24年12 月末为4078万头，今年3月末能繁母猪存栏4039万头，相比 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 24年末以及23年3月减少，能说明产能去化吗？ 思考1）当前仔猪、肥猪持续盈利，主动去产能驱动尚不充分 ，或可考虑季节性疫病影响。 思考2） 生产效率提升理论上对应所需母猪头数减少，但生 产效率提升对应供给如何量化？ 期货研究院 格林大 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 18 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SM2509 合约收于 5902，环比上一交易日收盘上涨 0.1%。SF2506 合约收于 5658，环比上 一交易日收盘下跌 0.49%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国务院总理李强在主持国务院第十三次专题学习时指出，在一些关键的时间窗口， | | | | | 推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手；要把握政策力度，必要时敢于打破常规，打好"组 | | | | | 合拳"。 | | | | | 2、本周，五大钢材品种供应 872.71 万吨，周环比增加 1.65 万吨，增幅 0.2%；总库存 | | 黑色 | 硅铁锰 | 震荡偏空 | 1584.68 万吨，周环比降 75.93 万吨，降幅 4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Energy and Chemical Industry: The investment rating for both soda ash and glass is "Bearish" [1][2] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market for soda ash and glass is currently under pressure. Soda ash production and inventory levels, along with glass production and inventory trends, combined with macro - economic factors and weak downstream demand, contribute to the bearish outlook. Traders are advised to short after significant rebounds [1][2] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main contract of soda ash futures has completed the roll - over to SA2509. Yesterday, the futures price fluctuated, with the settlement price down 1 point (0.07%), and an increase in positions by 59,409 lots, closing at 1358, below the 60 - day moving average. The night session closed slightly lower at 1347 [1] - **Important Information**: US tariff policy fluctuations affect the market, causing international market turmoil. The spot market is stable. This week, soda ash production was 755,600 tons, a 2.42% increase from the previous week. As of April 17, 2025, the total domestic soda ash inventory was 1.7113 million tons, a 0.19% decrease from Monday [1] - **Market Logic**: Soda ash plants are operating normally with no maintenance plans. Production and operating rates remain high, while downstream demand is lackluster, resulting in a weak short - term market [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Short after a significant rebound. The support level for the SA2509 contract is 1250, and the first and second resistance levels are 1480 and 1650 respectively [1] Glass - **Market Performance**: The main contract of glass futures has switched to FG2509. Yesterday, the futures price declined, with the settlement price down 18 points (1.52%), and an increase in positions by 114,870 lots, closing at 1166, below the 60 - day moving average. The night session closed sharply lower at 1137, hitting a new low [2] - **Important Information**: US tariff policy impacts the market. The spot price of float glass yesterday was 1277 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. As of April 17, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 158,500 tons, unchanged from the 10th. This week's production was 1.1093 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 8.98% lower than the same period last year. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 65.078 million weight boxes, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period [2] - **Market Logic**: Sales in some areas are mediocre, especially in the Shahe region. Traders are cautious, and downstream procurement is mainly for immediate needs. Short - term supply and demand are stable, with a slight reduction in inventory [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short after a significant rebound. The support level for the FG2509 contract is 1000 - 1050, and the resistance levels are 1350 and 1520 [2]