| --- | --- | |-------|------------------------| | | 研究所 | | 研 究 | 员：刘洋 | | | 从业资格：F3063825 | | | 投资咨询：Z0016580 | | 联 系 | 方 式 ： | | | Liuyang18036@greendh.c | | om | | | | | 宏观经济专题报告 2024 年 3 月 1 日 部 新加盟 3 月 1 日国家统计局公布 2 月份中国制造业采购经理指数 （PMI）为 49.1%，前值 49.2%。因为今年春节假期在 2 月， 制造业处于传统生产淡季，季节性因素导致 2 月 PMI 较 1 月 有所回落。2 月生产指数为 49.8%，前值 51.3%，春节因素影 响制造业生产略有收缩。2 月新订单指数为 49.0%，前值 49.0%。2 月新出口订单指数为 46.3%，前值 47.2%。反映需 求不足的企业占比超过 60%，需求不足的问题仍然突出。 2 月份非制造业商务活动指数为 51.4%，前值 50.7%。2 月建筑业商务活动指数为 53.5%，前值 53.9%。受低温天气 及春节假日影响，建筑 ...

Interest Rate Changes - The 5-year LPR has been reduced by 25 basis points to 3.95%, down from 4.20% last month[2] - The last adjustment for the 5-year LPR was on June 20, 2023, when it was lowered from 4.30% to 4.20%[8] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased from 2.67% on June 20, 2023, to approximately 2.44% currently[8] Loan Market Insights - The weighted average interest rate for new loans in Q4 2023 is 3.83%, a decline of 31 basis points compared to previous quarters[8] - The average interest rate for general loans is 4.35%, down 16 basis points in the same period[8] - The recent decline in the 5-year LPR is seen as a lagging response to the actual decrease in medium to long-term rates for loans and government bonds since last year[8] Economic Implications - The reduction in the 5-year LPR is expected to promote consumption and investment, particularly benefiting residential mortgage rates[14] - In January 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies fell to 281.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%[23] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has initiated measures to support financing for real estate projects, emphasizing a market-oriented approach[23]