Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - IF (Flat), IH (Flat), IC (Weak), IM (Weak) for stock index futures in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View - The stock market adjusted on Friday with some funds exiting before the long - holiday. The box - shaped market of stock indices remains unchanged, and defense is the main strategy. For futures trading, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 index. For stock index options trading, it is advisable to wait and see as the market is in a wide - range shock period before the holiday [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the major stock indices in the two markets adjusted oscillatingly, with trading volume decreasing. The CSI 300 index closed at 4550 points, down 43 points (-0.95%); the SSE 50 index closed at 2941 points, down 11 points (-0.40%); the CSI 500 index closed at 7240 points, down 100 points (-1.37%); the CSI 1000 index closed at 7397 points, down 108 points (-1.45%). The top - rising ETFs were real - estate ETF, power ETF, military - leading ETF, green - power ETF, and agriculture and livestock ETF, while the top - falling ones were game ETF, data ETF, and 5G ETF. Among the sector indices, the top - rising ones were chemical fiber, forestry, wind - power equipment, white - goods, and aviation - equipment indices, and the top - falling ones were consumer electronics, industrial Internet, components, cloud services, and game indices. The settled funds of CSI 1000 and SSE 50 index futures had net inflows of 2400 million and 100 million yuan respectively [1] 3.2 Important Information - By the end of August, China's public - fund total scale exceeded 36 trillion yuan, hitting a record high for the fifth time this year. The scale of equity funds reached 5.55 trillion yuan, increasing by over 630 billion yuan, and the scale of hybrid funds increased by over 330 billion yuan [1] - The AI investment - advisor market scale is expected to soar from $61.75 billion in 2023 to nearly $471 billion in 2029, with an increase of over 600%. About 10% of retail investors have used chatbots for stock selection, and half of them hold an open attitude. The investment portfolio selected by ChatGPT has a return rate of up to 55%, far exceeding that of professional funds [1] - The founder of Yushu Technology said that the company's robot algorithm has been iterated several times this year, and a 1.8 - meter - tall humanoid robot is expected to be released in the second half of the year. The average growth rate of domestic intelligent - robot related enterprises in the first half of this year was 50% - 100% [1] - JPMorgan believes that driven by the huge demand for high - performance memory in AI computing, the DRAM market is entering a "once - in - a - lifetime four - year pricing up - cycle" from 2024 to 2027 [1] - Xiaomi founder Lei Jun emphasized that Xiaomi is transforming from an Internet company to a hardcore technology company. It will invest 2000 billion yuan in R & D in the next five years [1] - Meta announced the integration of the AI video - creation platform Vibes into the Meta AI app, allowing users to create, discover, and share short - video content [2] - OpenAI released a new benchmark test, showing that its GPT - 5 model and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.1 are "close to the work quality of industry experts" [2] - Tesla's "true out - of - the - box process 2.0" patent has been approved, which can shorten the production cycle to about 10 seconds, with a car coming off the production line every 5 seconds and significantly reducing production costs [2] - Costco's profit and revenue in the last fiscal quarter both exceeded expectations, reflecting the resilience of the warehouse - membership retail model [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The major stock indices adjusted on Friday with some funds exiting before the long - holiday. The scale of equity and hybrid funds increased in August due to the rising stock market. International capital is actively increasing positions in China's technology sector, believing that China has global competitiveness in AI, robotics, and biotechnology. According to a HSBC survey, investors' optimism has risen, and China has become the preferred stock - investment market [2] 3.4 Market Outlook - The major stock indices adjusted on Friday with some funds exiting before the long - holiday. The scale of equity and hybrid funds increased in August due to the rising stock market. Morgan Stanley expects that Alibaba Cloud will add over 3 GW of data - center capacity annually from 2026 to 2032, bringing strong growth to infrastructure suppliers. International capital is increasing positions in China's technology sector. The semiconductor equipment industry remains highly prosperous. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more profit - taking funds flowing out on Monday. The box - shaped market of stock indices remains unchanged, and defense is the main strategy. Long positions in stock index futures should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 index [2] 3.5 Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, the box - shaped market of stock indices remains unchanged, and long positions in stock index futures should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 index, as large - financial stocks in the CSI 300 index have fully corrected, and the technology sector remains highly prosperous [2] - For stock index options trading, it is advisable to wait and see as the market is in a wide - range shock period before the holiday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Corn: The price is expected to explore the planting cost range, and there are opportunities for low - long positions. Maintain an interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term [4][5][6]. - Pig: The downward space of pig prices is limited, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, while far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [10][11][12]. - Egg: The spot price has fallen as expected, and the short - selling idea remains unchanged. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling strategy [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the north - south port prices were stable in the north and strong in the south, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline in the northeast and rose in the north [4]. - As of the 26th, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the wheat - corn price difference was positive and continued to expand [4]. - On the 26th, the corn auction sales and procurement transactions of CGC were held. The planned sales volume was 371 tons and all were sold, while the planned procurement volume was 11,800 tons with a transaction rate of 30% [5]. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased month - on - month and year - on - year, with a significant increase in corn inventory [5]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The opening price of new grain in the northeast has dropped from a high level. The lower support of the futures price is the port price range of the new season's corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [5]. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading around the new season's corn drive, and maintain a wide - range trading idea [5]. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost, and focus on policy orientation [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - Maintain the interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term. Pay attention to the low - long opportunities of the band. The support levels of the 2511 and 2601 contracts are 2100 - 2130 and 2100 - 2120 respectively, and long positions can be held [6]. Pig - **Important Information** - On the 27th, the national average price of live pigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to be stable with a slight increase on the 28th [10]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, and the number of sows culled in large - scale pig farms increased month - on - month [10]. - The price difference between fat and standard pigs narrowed, the average weekly slaughter weight decreased, and the number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [14]. - The central reserve frozen pork will be rotated out on the 28th [14]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The temporary supply - demand imbalance suppresses the pig price [11]. - Medium - term: The expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year restricts the rise of pig prices [11]. - Long - term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range and be gradually closed. Far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [12]. - The support levels of the 2511, 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts are 12300 - 12500, 12800 - 13000, 12500, 12900 - 13000, and 13500 - 13600 respectively [12]. Egg - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the egg prices were weakly stable, and the downstream sales slowed down with an increase in inventory [17]. - The price of culled hens decreased, and the weekly culling age increased [17]. - In August, the number of laying hens in stock increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the theoretical estimated value in September decreased month - on - month [17]. - **Market Logic** - Medium - and short - term: As the festival approaches, the stocking intensity weakens, the downstream sales slow down, and the inventory rises, putting pressure on egg prices [17]. - Long - term: Focus on the scale of hen culling. The supply pressure may be realized again in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling idea, and hold previous short positions. The pressure levels of the 2511, 2512, 2601, and 2602 contracts are 3090 - 3100, 3200, 3370 - 3380, and 3120 - 3140 respectively. Breeding enterprises can also pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities of the 2607 and 2608 contracts to lock in breeding profits [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market remains volatile, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. 8 - month industrial profit turned positive due to a low base, and some counter - cyclical adjustment policies may be implemented soon. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity, and positive interactions in Sino - US trade relations are beneficial for future trade talks [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The 30 - year treasury bond fell 0.60%, the 10 - year bond fell 0.07%, the 5 - year bond fell 0.09%, and the 2 - year bond fell 0.02% [4]. - From September 19th to September 26th, the 2 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose by 2 basis points, while the 5 - year and 10 - year yields remained flat [7]. - The logic of the treasury bond futures market is that the overall performance of the Chinese economy in August was lower than expected, and counter - cyclical adjustment policies may be introduced. The significant increase in industrial enterprise profits in August was due to the low base last year. The central bank will maintain liquidity, and Sino - US trade interactions are positive. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is expected to be volatile, and the trading strategy is to conduct band operations [33][34]. Industrial Enterprise Data - From January to August, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, reversing the downward trend since May. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in July. The increase in August was due to the low base in the same period last year [10]. - From January to August, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises was 89.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The operating income in August increased by 1.9%, 1.0 percentage point faster than in July [10]. - From January to August, the operating income profit margin of large - scale industrial enterprises was 5.24%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 percentage point. Different industries had different profit margins, with the mining industry having a relatively high margin but a decline compared to the previous year [13]. - At the end of August, the asset - liability ratio of large - scale industrial enterprises was 58.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points. The asset - liability ratio of large - scale manufacturing enterprises was 57.4%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [16]. - At the end of August, the average collection period of accounts receivable of large - scale manufacturing enterprises was 71.2 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.9 days, reaching a new high since 2015 [20]. - From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 2.3%, showing a downward trend. Both China and the US have been destocking in recent months [23]. Real Estate Market - In the first quarter, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 23.6 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From April to August, there were year - on - year declines. From September 1st to 25th, the average daily trading area was 22 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 12% due to the low base last year. The year - on - year data in the fourth quarter will face challenges [26]. Labor Market - In August, the unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in urban areas was 18.9%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year. The unemployment rate of 25 - 29 - year - olds was 7.2%, 0.3 percentage point higher than the same period last year. The unemployment rate of 30 - 59 - year - olds was 3.9%, remaining stable compared with the previous month and the same period last year [29]. Capital Market - This week, the overnight funding rate declined. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.41%, compared with 1.46% last week. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.69%, compared with 1.68% last week. On September 25th, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan after deducting the 300 - billion - yuan maturity, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased roll - over [31].

报告 科创50指数创新高 证监许可【2011】1288号 2025年9月26日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 周二急跌后，周三大涨，沪深300指数创出本轮新高（小时图） 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 阿里云栖大会：投入3800亿元更大规模的AI资本开支 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 科创50指数，在半导体板块高景气推动下，周四创出本轮新高 瑞银将阿里对容量增长的预测与资本投入进行了挂钩。据该行估算，每1GW的数据中心需求，若全部用于AI， 大约需要1000亿元人民币的IT设备资本开支。 瑞银认为，这一测算结果显著高于当前市场普遍预期，打破市场对于AI资本支出周期的可持续性以及超大规 模厂商资本支出强度的怀疑。 OpenAI计划投入约 4000 亿美元，与甲骨文和软银合作，在美国开发五个新的数据中心站点，容量7GW。 大摩预计到2028年，全球AI数据中心和芯片投资将高达2.9万亿美元，其中科技巨头将承担约1.4万亿美元。 余下的缺口预计将通过债务融资填 ...

报告 白银价格创新高 2025年9月26日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 阿里云栖大会：投入3800亿元更大规模的AI资本开支 阿里巴巴首席执行官吴泳铭在大会上释放了非常积极的信号。吴泳铭透露，模型令牌（token）使用量每两到 三个月即翻一番，显示出AI需求的爆炸式增长。 证监许可【2011】1288号 【全球经济展望】 中国实施人工智能+行动。国际资本积极加仓中国科技板块，认为在AI、机器人、生物科技等前沿领域，中 国已具备全球竞争力。美国8月零售环比增0.6%，超预期。美国8月新屋销售年化80万户，大幅高于预期。华为公 布了昇腾芯片演进和目标，算力"超节点+集群"已领先英伟达两年以上。OpenAI计划投入约 4000 亿美元，在 美国开发五个新的数据中心站点。阿里正积极推进3800亿元的AI基础设施建设，并计划追加更大的投入。 全球经济保持上行方向。 阿里计划在未来三年3800亿元人民币投资的基础上进行额外投资，进一步强化算力基础设施。 摩根士丹利最新研 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 09 月 26 日星期五 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加 | | | | | 工企业主流收购均价2151元/吨，较前一日跌4元/吨；华北地区深加工企业主流收购 | | | | | 价2370元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，南北港口价格北弱南强。锦州港（15%水/容重6 | | | | | 80-720）收购价2230-2240元/吨，较前一日跌10-20元/吨；蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2 | | | | | 390元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、玉米期货仓单数量继续减少。截至9 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - The short - term trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be range - bound. The spot price of coking coal is rising, and some coking enterprises have initiated the first price increase. After the replenishment is completed, the tight supply - demand situation may ease, and the upside space of the short - term futures market is limited [1] Summary by Catalog Market Review - The main contract of coking coal Jm2601 closed at 1224.5, up 1.24% compared with the opening of the day session; the main contract of coke J2601 closed at 1730.0, up 0.73%. At night, Jm2601 closed at 1223.5, down 0.08% from the day - session close, and J2601 closed at 1726.0, down 0.23% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - In mid - September, key steel enterprises produced 2073 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 207.3 million tons, a 0.6% decrease. Steel inventory was 1529 million tons, a 3.4% decrease [1] - On September 24, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and mainstream coking enterprises planned to raise the coke price on the 25th, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [1] - From the settlement on September 29, the daily price limit of iron ore futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the trading margin to 13%; for coke futures contracts, the daily price limit will be 11% with the margin unchanged; for coking coal futures contracts, the daily price limit will be 11% and the margin will be 15% [1] - From the settlement on September 29, the trading margin for apple, glass, and soda ash futures contracts at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will be 12%, and the daily price limit 10%; for rapeseed meal, red dates, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and caustic soda futures contracts, the margin will be 10% and the daily price limit 9% [1] - On September 24, the auction prices of coking coal in Linfen market increased significantly. Among 14 auction results, 13 increased and 1 had a 8% non - successful bid rate, with an average increase of about 92 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The spot price of coking coal is rising, and the cost of coking coal for coke has increased. Some coking enterprises have initiated the first price increase. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink during the National Day holiday, but the supply - demand situation may improve after the replenishment [1] Trading Strategy - Coking coal and coke are expected to move in a range in the short term [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Bullish with an upward - trending oscillation [1] - Red Dates: Oscillating [4] - Rubber: Oscillating, including natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and synthetic rubber [5] 2. Core Views - Sugar: The market anticipates a favorable output in the global 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, causing overseas sugar prices to decline. However, there are signs of the raw sugar futures stabilizing. Domestic sugar market has limited impact on Zhengzhou sugar futures, and attention should be paid to the subsequent performance of the external market [1]. - Red Dates: After continuous price drops, the futures have signs of stabilizing and rebounding. The downward space is limited, and future focus should be on capital trends and jujube quality [4]. - Rubber: Natural rubber prices have slightly stabilized, but the raw material price support and the news of state - reserve sales have opposite impacts on the market, and short - term range trading is recommended. Synthetic rubber trading atmosphere has weakened, and it may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: SR601 closed at 5497 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.97%, and SR605 closed at 5464 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.98% [1]. - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar closed at 16.12 cents/pound with a 0.25% daily decrease; Brazil's 2026/27 sugar output is expected to reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase; Thailand's 2025/26 output is expected to be 11.4 million tons; India's 2025/26 output is expected to be 32.3 million tons; the global sugar supply in 2025/26 is expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons [1]. - **Market Logic**: Overseas sugar prices are bottom - seeking, but there are signs of stabilization. Domestic sugar market has limited impact on Zhengzhou sugar futures [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in SR601 and pay attention to whether it can stay above 5500 yuan/ton [1]. Red Dates - **Market Review**: CJ601 closed at 10758 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.05%, and CJ605 closed at 10820 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.28% [4]. - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 74 tons to 9247 tons, a 0.79% decrease [4]. - **Market Logic**: After continuous decline, the futures may stabilize and rebound, and the downward space is limited [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in CJ601 and wait and see [4]. Rubber - **Market Review**: RU2601 closed at 15620 yuan/ton with a 0.61% daily increase; NR2511 closed at 12465 yuan/ton with a 0.56% daily increase; BR2511 closed at 11520 yuan/ton with a 0.79% daily increase [5]. - **Important Information**: Thailand's raw material prices are provided; tire production capacity utilization rates and inventory data in Qingdao are given; prices of various rubber products are reported [5]. - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber prices are slightly stable, affected by raw material prices and state - reserve sales news; synthetic rubber trading atmosphere is weakening, and it may oscillate narrowly [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the activity ranges of RU2601 (15500 - 16370), NR (12200 - 12800), and BR (11300 - 12000) [5].

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2601 价格上涨 15 元至 1673 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 10 元至 1610 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 3290 手至 21.26 万手，空头持仓减 少 6069 手至 25.56 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.94 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.1 万吨；今日开工率 85.2%，较去年同期 85.13%增加 0.08%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 121.82 万吨，较上周增加 5.29 万吨，环比增 | | | | | 加 4.54%。尿素港口样本库存量 51.6 万吨，环比减少 3.34 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 38.6%，环比+0.8%，三聚氰胺开工率 56.7%，环比+1.4%。 | | | | | 4、9 月 2 日印度 NFL 的尿素进口招标，最 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Core View of the Report - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with China implementing the AI+ initiative, international capital actively increasing positions in China's technology sector, and major technology companies such as OpenAI and Alibaba making significant investments in AI infrastructure [1] Summary by Related Catalog Important Information - OpenAI plans to invest approximately $400 billion to develop five new data center sites in the US with Oracle and SoftBank, fulfilling its commitment to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure in the US [1] - Alibaba Cloud's chairman says that large models are the next - generation operating systems, and AI Cloud is the next - generation computer. Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2028, AI data center and chip investment will reach $29 trillion, with tech giants bearing about $14 trillion and the remaining gap filled by debt financing, of which private credit funds are expected to provide $800 billion [1] - Alibaba Cloud showcases high - density AI servers and a new - generation network architecture. Its ecosystem companies are promoting customer introduction and product delivery in the hardware field, and many Agent applications and AI terminal products will be exhibited [1] - Bloomberg's Nour Al Ali believes that the rise in the price of gold in Swiss francs this year shows that central bank demand is the key driver for the rise of precious metals [1] - Tech giants like Microsoft and Google are in an AI capital expenditure race, and Deutsche Bank warns that historical technology - driven capital spending booms have often led to "boom - bust" cycles [1] Global Economic Logic - China implements the AI+ initiative, and international capital is bullish on China's technology sector. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and its capital goods imports in July reached a record high. Huawei's Ascend chips lead NVIDIA in computing power. OpenAI and Alibaba are making large - scale AI infrastructure investments [1]