尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 | 指标 本期 前值 涨跌 一周走势 | | --- | | 河南 1660 1650 10 | | 主流地区市场价 山西 1530 1520 10 | | （元/吨） 江苏 1660 1640 20 | | 山东 1670 1650 20 | | 黑龙江 1740 1740 0 内蒙古 1750 1750 0 | | 河北东光 1660 1650 10 | | 山东华鲁 1650 1640 10 工厂价 | | （元/吨） 江苏灵谷 1680 1680 0 | | 安徽昊源 1600 1620 -20 | | 山东05基差 -88 -71 -17 | | 山东01基差 -102 -86 -16 基差 | | （元/吨） 河北05基差 -68 -51 -17 | | 河北01基差 -82 -66 -16 | | 1-5价差 64 71 -7 月差（元/吨） 5-9价差 -14 -15 1 | | 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 7587 7181 406 | | 中东FOB 395.5 395.5 0 | | 美湾FOB 374.5 374.5 0 前一日国际报价: | | 埃及F ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to experience weak and volatile price movements. The supply side will see a slight increase in the operating rate, while the demand side will remain weak. The impact of international events on crude oil prices and the cautious market attitude towards winter storage contracts also contribute to the market's uncertainty [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month-on-month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year-on-year. Next week, the operating rate will increase slightly as some refineries switch production and others resume production [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. Road asphalt construction was restricted by funds and weather, with the operating rate dropping by 5 percentage points to 29%. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the overall demand will remain weak [1]. - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - International Events: The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. Although there are signs of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the possibility of a peace agreement in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are fluctuating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area led to the shutdown of a 200,000-barrel/day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened under the US military threat [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.73% to 2,996 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,953 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,019 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 20,497 to 133,952 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 4 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production, and the operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. From January to October, the fixed asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [4]. - Social Financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than expected [4]. - Inventory: As of November 28, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 80.08 82.68 -2.6 开工率 74.514 74.854 -0.340 产量 69.82 72.09 -2.27 产线条数 220 221 -1 重质产量 38.31 39.62 -1.31 产量 110.3895 111.0195 -0.63 轻质产量 31.51 32.47 -0.96 厂内库存 158.74 164.44 -5.7 库存 6236.2 6330.3 -94.1 重质库存 84.68 88.73 -4.05 库存可用天数 27.5 27.7 -0.2 轻质库存 74.06 75.71 -1.65 库存可用天数 13.16 13.63 -0.47 产销率 108.16 108.73 -0.57 天然气利润 -227.27 -206.84 -20.43 氨碱法毛利 -38.5 -38.5 0 石油焦利润 -31.48 8.52 -40 联产法毛利 -140 -153.5 13.5 煤制气利润 4.5 25.79 -21.29 基差 -30 -30 0 基差 16 81 -65 1-5价差 58 74 -16 1-5价差 115 130 ...

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 15210.12 330.58 8942.48 289.43 2817.1 40.1 234.68 81.09 87.98 35.06 -0.50 上期 15054.65 329.92 9001.23 291.68 2268.9 40.28 236.28 82.19 88.58 37.66 1.50 周变动 155.47 0.66 -58.75 -2.25 548.20 -0.18 -1.60 -1.10 -0.6 -2.6 -2.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 11643.97 1979.37 302.35 1284.43 本期 9914.7 5987.03 6307.46 上期 11550.01 1963.04 293.17 1248.43 上期 9765.58 6007.01 6226.24 周变动 93.96 16.33 9.18 36 周变动 149.12 -19.98 81.22 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley has upgraded the investment rating of the Chinese stock market to "overweight" [34] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overnight night - market saw mixed trends in various futures and financial markets. International and domestic policies and market conditions have significant impacts on different industries [5][6][34] 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 0.3% at $4189.6/oz and COMEX silver up 0.41% at $53.825/oz, driven by Fed rate - cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and differentiated industrial demand [5] - US oil and Brent crude futures rose, with the US oil main contract up 0.77% at $59.10/barrel and Brent crude up 0.61% at $62.92/barrel. OPEC+ may confirm a suspension of production increases in early 2026 [6] - Most London base metals fell, with LME aluminum down 1.13% at $2831.50/ton, LME zinc down 1.08% at $3022.00/ton, etc., while LME lead rose 0.51% at $1983.50/ton [6] - Domestic futures contracts also showed mixed trends, with glass, rubber, etc. rising and coke, etc. falling [6] Important News Macroeconomic News - The US will extend the tariff exemption on China until November 10, 2026 [9] - The NDRC will address disorderly price competition in some industries [9] - From January to October, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 5.95029 trillion yuan, up 1.9% year - on - year, but in October, it was down 5.5% year - on - year [10] - The SAMR will strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement and fair competition review [10] - Russian President Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 1.75% week - on - week [13] - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.49% week - on - week [13] - Thailand's rubber production may decrease by up to 90,000 tons due to floods [13] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached a two - week high [14] - OPEC+ may keep oil production levels unchanged and reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity [15] - Angola plans to cut oil exports to 966,000 barrels per day in January [16] Metal Futures - The FIMI in India calls for canceling the 15% export tariff on low - grade bauxite [18] - The copper price on COMEX may have a premium over LME due to uncertain US copper tariffs [18] - Some silicon wafer enterprises have started production cuts, and most plan to further reduce the operating load in December [20] - China's new energy storage installed capacity exceeds 100 million kilowatts [20] - Many experts predict that the gold price will continue to rise in 2026, with a forecast range of $4000 - $5300 [20] - On November 27, 2025, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at $311.5/ton FOB East Australia for December shipment [21] Black - Series Futures - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 0.9% week - on - week [23] - As of November 27, the output and apparent demand of rebar both declined, and the factory and social inventories continued to decline [23] - Ping'an Iron and Steel and Liansteel will carry out maintenance, affecting production [23] - As of November 26, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants exceeded 230 million tons [25] - Market participants believe that Vanke's debt repayment pressure has entered the market - oriented disposal stage [25] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton [25] Agricultural Futures - Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil in September, lower than last year and August this year [27] - Malaysia's palm oil exports to China decreased by about 29% in the first 10 months of this year [28] - As of November 26, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions decreased by 1.06% [29] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were expected to be 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the same period last month [30] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record 178 million tons [32] - Brazil's soybean, bean粕, and corn exports last week and this week's plans are provided [32] Financial Markets Financial - A - shares rose and then fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.29%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index down [34] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.07%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.36% [34] - Morgan Stanley upgraded the investment rating of the Chinese stock market to "overweight" [34] - As of November 27, 96 fund managers issued purchase restriction announcements for over 340 products [35] - As of November 27, 400 A - share listed companies issued private placement plans this year [36] - Tencent Holdings repurchased HK$636 million worth of shares on November 26 [36] - Avita Technology submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [36] Industry - The NDRC studied formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition [37] - As of October, the private fund scale reached 22.05 trillion yuan [37] - Six major banks stopped selling five - year large - denomination certificates of deposit [37] - In November, 184 game licenses were issued, and 1624 were issued in 2025 [37] - 15 enterprises were selected for the first batch of leading - level intelligent factories in China [39] - The SAMR carried out anti - unfair competition compliance guidance for mobile phone enterprises [39] - The NDRC revised the power transmission and distribution cost supervision and pricing methods [39] - Beijing plans to build a large - scale data center in space [39] - In October, Japan's chip equipment sales reached 413.88 billion yen, up 7.3% year - on - year [39] Overseas - Russia's Putin said the US delegation will visit Moscow next week, and Russia generally agrees to use the US solution for Ukraine as the basis for negotiation [40] - Ukraine and the US negotiation teams are expected to meet soon, and Ukraine hopes for a cease - fire [40] - The Bank of Korea kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% and raised GDP and inflation forecasts [42] - The ECB strengthened the market's expectation that the interest - rate cut cycle has ended [42] International Stocks - US stocks were closed on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday [43] - European stocks rose slightly, with the German DAX index up 0.18%, the French CAC40 index up 0.04%, and the UK FTSE 100 index up 0.02% [43] - The Japanese stock market continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 index up 1.23%, and the South Korean Composite Index up 0.66% [43] Commodities - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 0.3% and COMEX silver up 0.41% [44] - US oil and Brent crude futures rose, with the US oil main contract up 0.77% and Brent crude up 0.61% [44] - Most London base metals fell, with LME aluminum down 1.13%, etc., and LME lead up 0.51% [46] - OPEC may maintain oil production levels and reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity [46] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the gold price may reach $4900/oz next year and recommends going long on gold [47] Bonds - The domestic bond market was weak, with interest - rate bond yields rising and most treasury bond futures falling [47] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium on green bonds and ESG bonds [47] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0806 on Thursday, down 4 points, and the RMB central parity rate was up 17 points [48] - The US dollar index fell 0.03%, and non - US currencies showed mixed trends [50]

Group 1: Hot News - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the tariff exemptions on China's technology transfer and intellectual property issues until November 10, 2026, which were originally set to expire on November 29, 2025 [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to address disorderly price competition among enterprises to maintain market price order [2] - From January to October 2025, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, but in October, the profits decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement in key areas and fair competition reviews [2] - Russian President Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch include lithium carbonate, coke, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - trading performance shows that different commodity futures sectors had varying degrees of price changes, with precious metals up 30.01%, non - metallic building materials up 3.02%, and so on [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, with different trends for each sector [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.29%, a monthly decrease of 2.01%, and a yearly increase of 15.62%. Other indices also had their respective performance [6] - In the fixed - income market, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had negative returns to varying degrees [6] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index had different price changes [6] - Other assets such as the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index also showed their own trends [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Supply exceeds demand, and cost support weakens, so PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week-on-week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstrings, remained flat at 44.24%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On November 27, there was little change in maintenance devices, PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstrings remained at around 31% [1][4] - Petrochemical destocking slowed down in November, and current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Crude oil prices declined due to the lack of impact on Russia's oil production from new sanctions and the push for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - A new 400,000-ton/year production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid-October, and there was a slight decrease in maintenance devices recently [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6,295 yuan/ton, down 0.03%, and the position volume decreased by 29,319 lots to 557,253 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with drawstrings quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 27, there was little change in maintenance devices, and PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a neutral to low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of November 21, PP downstream operating rate rose 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week-on-week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstrings, remained flat at 44.24%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 0.5 million tons to 65 million tons week-on-week, 4.5 million tons higher than the same period last year [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 02 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $735 per ton week-on-week [5]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月27日 【行情分析】 PVC2601合约减仓震荡运行，最低价4473元/吨，最高价4520元/吨，最终收盘于4517元/吨， 在20日均线下方，涨幅0.71%，持仓量减少35230手至1192419手。 基差方面： 11月27日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价维持在4445元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4489元/ 吨，目前基差在-72元/吨，走弱28元/吨，基差处于中性偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度 反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍 下跌30-60美元/吨。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index in October, unclear prospects for US interest rate cuts, market concerns about crude oil demand, accelerated production increases by OPEC+, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in crude oil. However, it is difficult to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ meeting will be held on November 30th, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in Q4 but unexpectedly reduce the pressure in Q1 2026. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, an unexpected increase in US refined oil inventory according to EIA data, and an increase in net imports have led to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and a slight increase in overall oil product inventory. US crude oil production is near its historical high, but the number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased by 12, raising expectations that low oil prices will limit US crude oil growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. There are difficulties in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, causing concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, rose 1.08% to 447.6 yuan/ton, with a low of 442.8 yuan/ton and a high of 448.1 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2,687 to 36,011 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA将2026年美国原油产量上调20万桶/日至1350万桶/日。OPEC月报将第三季度全球石油短缺40万桶/日调整为过剩50万桶/日，将2026年全球石油短缺5万桶/日调整为过剩2万桶/日。OPEC月报将2025年全球原油需求增速预测维持在130万桶/日，将2026年全球原油需求增速预测维持在138万桶/日。IEA年度《世界能源展望》中预测石油需求可能将持续增长至2050年，而IEA此前预计全球石油需求将在2030年见顶。IEA月报将2025年全球原油供应增速上调10万桶/日至310万桶/日，将2026年全球原油供应增速上调10万桶/日至250万桶/日；将2025年全球原油需求增速上调7.8万桶/日至78.8万桶/日，将2026年全球原油需求增速上调7.1万桶/日至77万桶/日 [3] Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - On the evening of November 26th, EIA data showed that for the week ending November 21st, US crude oil inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected 55,000 barrels), 4.50% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected 745,000 barrels); refined oil inventory increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected 556,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 68,000 barrels. OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of November 21st decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day, near its historical high. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year; diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. Although diesel demand decreased significantly, the increase in gasoline and other oil products led to a 0.41% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the near future due to the unchanged supply - demand pattern and weakened cost support [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 27, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. New capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) were recently put into production. The plastics operating rate decreased slightly [1][4] - As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week - on - week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders, but the peak season is less than expected. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient, mainly for rigid demand [1][4] - In November, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years. The cost support weakened as the crude oil price dropped [1][4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,694 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,742 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,699 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.61%. The position volume decreased by 1,873 lots to 495,726 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations between - 80 and + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,620 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 27, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and slightly increased raw material inventory. The packaging film orders also increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 65 million tons week - on - week, 4.5 million tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell below $63/barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat at $720/ton week - on - week, and that in Southeast Asia remained flat at $730/ton week - on - week [4]