【冠通期货研究报告】 天然橡胶日报：偏空运行 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 一、行情表现 2 月 2 日，天然橡胶主力合约收盘价 15980 元/吨，当日涨跌幅-3.73%。 二、供给方面 2025 年 12 月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合 胶、复合胶）进口量 80.34 万吨，环比增加 24.84%，同比增加 25.4%，2025 年 1-12 月累计进口数量 667.51 万吨，累计同比增加 17.94%。 全球天然橡胶供应将逐步由旺季转为淡季，后期供应压力或逐步减弱，但国 内 1 月下旬仍集中到港，国内海南产区停割，工厂收胶抢购热度有限，后期全球 供应压力减缓，叠加上游工厂的原料备库，预计原料价格将延续坚挺格局，橡胶 成本端支撑偏强。按照 ANRPC 天然橡胶生产国联合会成员产量规律，1 月份开始 产量应该会逐步下降，整个一季度产量大概率会下滑。且按照往年规律，1、2 月份的橡胶进口量大概率也会下滑。 三、需求方面 2026 年 1 月 30 日我国半钢胎开工率为 74.84%，高于历年同期均值，开工率 偏高。2026 年 1 月 30 日我国全钢胎开工率为 62.4 ...

商品表现 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 2 日收盘，国内期货主力合约大面积飘绿，沪银、铂、钯、碳酸 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 【宏观面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将介入并 购买委内瑞拉石油。由于特朗普周末表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"认真谈话"，释 放出与该欧佩克成员国局势降温的信号，WTI 原油暴跌。 商务部等 9 单位印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》。 【期现行情分析】 受外盘影响，内盘集体走弱，期货日内下跌近 4%，短期反弹告一段落，存 在进一步下探可能，支撑关注小时级别 60 日均线，重点关注近期宏观因子和短 期情绪变化。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于财政部、隆众数据、Wind、 金十期货网站。 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited. It is estimated that soybeans will continue to fluctuate [1] - Corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. If there is a large decline, consider buying on dips [1] - There is no obvious short - term driver for eggs. Due to a slight improvement in the marginal inventory compared to the second half of last year, it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] - The darkest time for pigs around the Spring Festival has passed. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the regulation of sows to build a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month period [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - In the Northeast soybean producing area, the spot market for low - protein soybeans is stable. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight with the feature of high - quality and high - price. The price of 39% protein - content commercial soybeans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1] - On February 2, 2026, at 14:00, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction 60,608 tons of soybeans, all of which were sold. The reserve price was 4,050 yuan per ton, the average transaction price was 4,298 yuan per ton, and the premium was 210 - 310 yuan per ton [1] Corn - In the Northeast production area, after entering the twelfth lunar month, farmers' attitude of holding prices has loosened slightly, and the amount of corn on the market has improved slightly. In terms of demand, there is a rigid demand for stocking before the Spring Festival in the feed and deep - processing industries, but due to the relatively high price of dry corn, the inventory days of mainstream feed and deep - processing corn have increased to more than 30 days [1] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The old - hen culling rate has slowed down, and new - laying hens are gradually entering the market, resulting in the overall production capacity remaining high [2] Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. It was 101.6% of the normal reserve. The national pig slaughter in 2025 was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. The national pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% [2] - With the arrival of the Spring Festival in February, the pressure on the breeding side to sell pigs may be temporarily reduced. The supply of pigs is expected to decrease significantly. The pre - festival stocking provides short - term support, but the demand will decline after the Spring Festival [3] - In 2025, pig - related enterprises generally declined, with most enterprises suffering heavy losses and their stock prices falling sharply, which also had a certain pessimistic impact on the commodities [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the coke industry is "sideways" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy guidance. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and the overall supply - demand is weak. Downstream steel mills' pre - holiday restocking is nearing the end, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking plants are in continuous losses, with strong price - increase intentions. There are still expectations for subsequent policies at the macro - level. Overall, the market is under pressure due to the news of the Fed nomination. In the short term, it will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, and a low - buying strategy can be considered. Attention should be paid to the support near the previous low and the resistance near the previous high [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Coke Inventory - As of January 30, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 133,000 tons to 1.01235 billion tons, reaching a 7 - and - a - half - month high, with a year - on - year decline of 3.44% [1] Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 55 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke turned positive to 2 yuan/ton, that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 0 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 41 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 92 yuan/ton [1] Downstream Demand - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.32% week - on - week to 79%, 1.02% higher than the same period last year. The profitability rate decreased by 1.3% week - on - week to 39.39%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 85.47%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 1,200 tons week - on - week to 2.2798 million tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of a decline in supply. The coking coal inventory in mines decreased by 72,000 tons to 2.672 million tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 460,000 tons week - on - week to 28.6434 million tons, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 8.57% [1] News - US President Trump officially nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair to replace Powell whose term ends in May. The nomination of Warsh as Fed chair triggered hawkish expectations, causing violent fluctuations in the financial market. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [2]

3，基差：期货贴水现货 142 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周一持仓量增仓 49987 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 1134404 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3093，最高 3139，收于 3098 元/吨，下跌 49 元/吨，跌幅 1.56%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3240 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 53.72 万吨，厂家库存压力同比大幅缓解，社库同比大降，社库压力同比减 轻。给到价格支撑。 ■宏观面：央行释放适度宽松信号，财政部强调支出力度只增不减， 但房地产需求拖累，宏观来说增量需求相对有限，但宽松周期相对起到支 撑，需求上限决定压力。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 29 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 0.28 万吨至 1 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力今日低开，走势震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇 叭，短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，短线支撑关注布林带中轨附 近。成交量较昨日增 38.9 万手，持仓量较昨日减 24564 手；日内最高 1235，最 低 1192，收盘 1203，（较昨结算价）跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 0.66%。 2，现货市场：弱稳维持。企业装置大稳小动，南方碱业停车检修，江苏井 神恢复运行，综合供应微幅下移。下游企业采购积极性不佳，保持低价补库成交。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 47 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，国内纯碱产量 78.31 万吨，环比增加 1.14 万 吨，涨幅 1.47%。其中，轻碱产量 36.20 万吨，环比增加 0.32 万吨；重碱产量 42.11 万吨，环比增加 0.82 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.19%，上周 86.42%，环比 下降 2.23%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.99%，环比增加 1.30%；联产产能利用率 74.65%，环 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The hot-rolled coil futures decreased with a reduction in positions today, and the daily line fluctuated within a range. In the short term, it is mainly affected by market sentiment. Currently, the upward movement is restricted by high inventories and weak demand, while the downward movement is supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely monitored: the inventory depletion speed, as excessive inventory accumulation may lead to further price decline; and the implementation progress of "dual - heavy" projects and infrastructure investment, as the policy support will determine the medium - term rebound space. Currently, attention should be paid to the support of the previous platform [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 30,859 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 529,496 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,260 yuan, and the high was 3,298 yuan. It decreased with a reduction in positions, breaking below the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages in the short term, and closed at 3,261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan or 1.24% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 9 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons, which was at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival and their production enthusiasm increased [4] - Demand: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand increased slightly this week and was at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week - on - week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased, the inventory pressure was marginally relieved, and the overall inventory was in a destocking phase [4] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to rectify involution - style competition in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The expectation of winter storage demand, the rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strong performance of iron ore as a raw material [6] - Bearish factors: The unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, the seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and the suppression of prices by inventory accumulation [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力今日低开，日内走势震荡。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇 叭，短期震荡信号。盘中压力继续关注日线的 20、60 均线附近，支撑关注布林 带下轨线附近。成交量较昨日增 77681 手，持仓量较昨日减 72809 手；日内最高 1087，最低 1046，收盘 1056，（较昨结算价）跌 15 元/吨，跌幅 1.4%。 1 利润方面，天然气浮法玻璃周均利润-155.12 元/吨，环比+3.57 元/吨；煤 制气浮法玻璃周均利润-68.5 元/吨，环比-3.39 元/吨；石油焦浮法玻璃周均利 润 1.07 元/吨，环比+2.85 元/吨。 三、主要逻辑总结 2，现货市场：华北，出货尚可，价格稳定，订单扫尾、节前收款为主；华 东，交投转淡，企业稳价为主；华中，偏稳运行，中下游拿货情绪减缓；华南， 部分中下游企业根据订单及仓储能力适当备货，但多数仍刚需为主。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1020，基差-36 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，本周浮法玻璃总产量 105.7 万吨，环比持 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：驱动有限，窄幅波动 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 【行情分析】 焦煤日内低开高走，日内下跌。供应端，春节临近，国内矿山逐渐开启假 期，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 89.13%，环 比减少 0.2%。原煤日均产量达到 197.82 万吨。本期焦煤矿山库存转为累库， 周度环比减少 7.17 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 57.08 万吨，钢厂累库 11.12 万 吨，冬储补库进程环比上周加快，距离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存将 继续下沉，下游铁水产量环比减少 0.12%，周度日均产量 227.98 万吨。焦炭一 轮提涨落地，下游高价接受力度回暖，焦企利润回升，市场情绪起伏大，临近 春节假期，矿端预计将逐渐减量，而下游冬储虽仍在进行，但已进入收尾阶 段，供需双弱，焦煤窄幅波动整理，目前无政策支撑，整体驱动有限。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1300 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1024 元/吨，较上个交易日+4 元/吨。 1 数据来源：钢联数据、冠通研究咨询部 【基本面跟踪】 供应数 ...