Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited, with an expected continuation of the oscillating trend [1] - Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and it can still be considered for bargain - buying if there is a large decline [1] - There is no obvious short - term driver for eggs, and excessive bearishness is not recommended due to a marginal improvement in inventory compared to the second half of last year [2] - The darkest time for pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month [3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - In the Northeast production area, the spot market for low - protein soybeans is stable, with little remaining grain in the grass - roots level and sluggish transactions. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, showing the characteristic of better quality commanding a higher price. The price of 39% protein content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1] - On February 2, 2026, at 14:00, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction 60,608 tons of soybeans, all of which were sold. The reserve price was 4,050 yuan per ton, the average transaction price was 4,298 yuan per ton, and the premium was 210 - 310 yuan per ton [1] Corn - The Northeast market has entered a small peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival. Under the game of increased supply and decreased demand, the corn trend is weak. Farmers who want to sell grain are selling one after another, and traders and grain dealers have little expectation of price increases. The shipment volume before the Spring Festival has increased [1] - In Shandong, the grain sales progress has exceeded 50%. The supply and demand sides are in continuous game. Currently, North China has a low - price area. In addition to the support of deep - processing stocking demand, traders have the intention to build warehouses, and the actual increase in market supply is limited. The corn price is stable with a slight upward trend [1] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a relatively high level in recent years, with sufficient basic market supply capacity [2] - The culling rhythm of old hens has slowed down. With the recent sharp rise in egg prices, the income of the breeding link has expanded, and farmers' confidence has been restored. The industry generally has the idea of delaying the culling of old hens and even molting them later, resulting in a decrease in the slaughter volume of old hens and slowing down the reduction rate of production capacity [2] - According to the breeding cycle, the newly - laid hens recently were the chicks replenished around October 2025. Although the egg price at that time inhibited some replenishment, the established production capacity is still gradually coming into production, resulting in the situation of "old hens not leaving and new hens coming", and the overall national production capacity remains at a high level [2] Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9%, and currently it is 101.6% of the normal inventory [2] - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million compared with the previous year, a growth of 2.4% [2] - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million compared with the end of the previous year, a growth of 0.5% [2] - From the end of January to the beginning of February, as the pre - Spring Festival slaughter window narrows, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices to weaken further. Although farmers have resistance to price drops and there are weather disturbances, they can only slow down the downward rate and are difficult to reverse the trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 3, the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE declined by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week-on-week, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was de-stocked rapidly, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and the crude oil price dropped significantly. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet, the temperature dropped, the terminal construction slowed down, the demand in the north decreased, the production of greenhouse film in the north basically stopped, the prices of agricultural film remained stable, the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film decreased, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline. The macro sentiment cooled down, and plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term following the market sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern of plastics will improve limitedly, the spot follow - up is limited, the basis will decline, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics in recent days, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 3, there were few changes in the overhaul devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and the crude oil price dropped significantly. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet, the temperature dropped, the terminal construction slowed down, the demand in the north decreased, the production of greenhouse film in the north basically stopped, the prices of agricultural film remained stable, the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film decreased, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline. The macro sentiment cooled down, and plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term following the market sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern of plastics will improve limitedly, the spot follow - up is limited, the basis will decline, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The plastic 2605 contract increased its positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,811 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,937 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,865 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.15%. The position increased by 15,259 lots to 511,685 lots [2]. Spot - Most of the PE spot markets declined, with a price change range between - 200 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,600 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 3, there were few changes in the overhaul devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE declined by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders of agricultural film and the raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The orders of packaging film also decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 95,000 tons to 505,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was de - stocked rapidly, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 04 contract dropped to $66/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $700/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $680/ton week - on - week [4].

发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：冬储进入尾声 【行情分析】 焦煤日内低开高走，午后下跌。焦煤供应过剩格局显现，但春节临近，国 内矿山逐渐开启假期，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利 用率为 89.13%，环比减少 0.2%。原煤日均产量达到 197.82 万吨。进口煤及国 内生产边际减少，本期焦煤矿山库存去库，周度环比减少 7.17 万吨，上周焦化 企业累库 57.08 万吨，钢厂累库 11.12 万吨，冬储补库进程环比上周加快，距 离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存将继续下沉，目前已接近尾声阶段，下 游钢材成交量不佳，下游铁水产量环比减少 0.12%，周度日均产量 227.98 万 吨。焦炭一轮提涨落地，焦企利润回升，但钢厂利润减少，下一轮提涨预计难 度高，下游冬储虽仍在进行，但已进入收尾阶段，供需双弱，焦煤窄幅波动整 理，目前无政策支撑，整体驱动有限，偏弱震荡为主。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1300 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1027 元/吨，较上个交易日+3 元/吨。 基差方面： ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 3 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，沪银跌超 16%，沪锡跌超 6%， SC 原油跌超 4%，燃料油跌超 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：南美大豆丰产预期加强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 豆粕：AgRural：截至上周四（1 月 29 日），2025/26 年度巴西大豆收获进 度为 10%，上周 4.9%，去年同期 3.9%。目前几乎所有产豆州的大豆收获都已经 开始，目前尚未有重大收割延误的报告，但市场关注的焦点开始转向巴西南部地 区和南马托格罗索州出现的高温干旱天气。最令人担忧的是南里奥格兰德州，该 州约有 15%的作物仍处于灌浆期。USDA 出口检验：截至 2026 年 1 月 29 日的一周， 美国大豆出口检验量为 1,310,559 吨，去年同期为 1,140,431 吨。2025/26 年度 迄今美国大豆出口检验总量达到 21,991,461 吨，同比减少 35.7%，2025/26 年度 迄今美国大豆出口达到全年出口目标的 51.3%。 机构大幅上调 2025/26 年度产量估值，收获进度优于去年，尽管局部天气仍 存变数，但市场对于南美丰产及供应宽松的一致性预期正得到进一步强化。不过 由于节后大豆抛储和到港仍然存在一定的不确定性，不建议过度看空，保守的建 议逢低点部分基差，期货盘面仍然以宽 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：外盘情绪影响下高位回落 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【基本面分析】 1、截至 1 月 27 日，1 月苯乙烯华东江苏主流库区总库存量在 9.45-12.33 万吨区间波动。苯乙烯华东主要港口的库存整体仍处于历史低位区间，现货流通 性仍偏紧。 2、从下游三大领域（EPS、PS 和 ABS）的生产情况来看，截至 1 月 22 日当 周，EPS 产能利用率 58.71%，环比增长 4.66%，下游需求淡季，商家追涨情绪谨 慎，整体成交氛围欠佳。 3、 PS 产能利用率 57.3%，环比下降 0.1%，南京装置恢复、广西长科重启， 但连云港石化、宁波利万各减 1 条线，行业供应暂时稳定，行业总供应量平稳， 市场出货一般，库存转为上涨。 4、 ABS 产能利用率 66.8%，环比下降 3%，厂家供应依旧十分紧张，控量发 货为主，且进入 1 月份后多为高价货源，节后归来市场询盘问价增多，成交放量， 价格呈现反弹。此外，UPR 产能利用率 38%，环比下降 1%；丁苯橡胶开工 82.92%， 环比持稳。 【宏观面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将 ...

Group 1: Hot News - China Electricity Council predicts that solar power installed capacity will exceed coal power for the first time in 2026, and the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach half of the total installed capacity by the end of the year. The newly added power generation installed capacity is expected to exceed 400 million kilowatts, with new new - energy power generation installed capacity exceeding 300 million kilowatts [2] - Iranian President Pezeshkiyan orders to start nuclear negotiations with the US, and high - level talks may be held in the coming days. US envoy Witkov and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi are expected to meet in Istanbul on February 6 to discuss a "possible nuclear agreement" [2] - US President Trump says he will reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. Indian Prime Minister Modi agrees to stop buying Russian oil, reduce tariffs and non - tariff barriers to the US to zero, and promises to purchase over $500 billion of US products [2] - The US January ISM manufacturing PMI index rises to 52.6, far higher than the expected 48.5, reaching a new high since August 2022, boosted by robust growth in new orders and output [2] - The EU is considering banning imports of some Russian platinum - group metals and copper in the new round of sanctions [2] Group 2: Key Focus and Night - Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, silver, crude oil, and plastic [3] - Night - market performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.96%, precious metals 35.99%, oilseeds and oils 8.14%, soft commodities 2.30%, non - ferrous metals 26.37%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 9.64%, energy 2.44%, chemicals 9.48%, grains 1.01%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.67% [3] Group 3: Commodity Futures Plate Holding - The chart shows the changes in the holdings of commodity futures plates in the past five days from January 27, 2026, to February 2, 2026 [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.48%, SSE 50 dropped 2.07%, CSI 300 dropped 2.13%, CSI 500 dropped 3.98%, S&P 500 rose 0.54%, Hang Seng Index dropped 2.23%, German DAX rose 1.09%, Nikkei 225 dropped 1.25%, and UK FTSE 100 rose 1.15% [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures dropped 0.03%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures dropped 0.02%, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures remained unchanged [5] - Commodities: CRB commodity index dropped 4.67%, WTI crude oil dropped 5.09%, London spot gold dropped 4.52%, LME copper dropped 1.96%, and Wind commodity index dropped 11.59% [5] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.51%, and CBOE volatility remained unchanged [5] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans and corn, as well as stock market risk preferences [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/3 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期市日盘收盘大面积跌停，沪银、钯、铂、沪铜、沪镍、原油、碳 酸锂等十多个品种主力合约跌停，沪金逼近跌停。夜盘收盘，沪银主力合约下跌 20%，沪锡跌 12.38%，原油跌 4.8%，沪金跌 3.86%。 2.美油主力合约收跌 4.42%，报 62. ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1790 1790 0 河南 1770 1770 0 山东 1770 1790 -20 山西 1630 1630 0 江苏 1800 1800 0 安徽 1790 1790 0 黑龙江 1780 1780 0 内蒙古 1790 1790 0 河北东光 1770 1770 0 山东华鲁 1770 1770 0 江苏灵谷 1820 1810 10 安徽昊源 1740 1740 0 山东05基差 -37 -39 2 山东01基差 -8 -10 2 河北05基差 -27 -29 2 河北01基差 2 0 2 1-5价差 30 28 2 5-9价差 29 29 0 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 11256 12690 -1434 中东FOB 431 426 5 美湾FOB 434.5 423.5 11 埃及FOB 477.5 462.5 15 波罗的海FOB 415 405 10 巴西CFR 437.5 432.5 5 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 尿素日度数据 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --2026年2月沥青月度报告 发布日期：2026年2月2日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 数据来源：博易大师 冠通研究 3 沥青/原油 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.3个百分点至25.5%，较去年同期低了2.6个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资 讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨，减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，沥 青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于14%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，山东地区部分炼厂停产或转产渣 油，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少5.80%至21.45万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比持平，仍处于近年来 同期的最低位附近。 ...