1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Recommend shorting on rallies [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand balance of crude oil has weakened, with supply increasing and demand facing uncertainties, so it is advisable to short on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side Factors - Iraq's Oil Ministry will restart the export of crude oil from the Kurdish region on Tuesday, which is expected to increase Iraq's crude oil exports by 300,000 - 400,000 barrels per day [1][2] - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. From October 2025, OPEC+ will implement a daily production adjustment of 137,000 barrels, and plans to continue to lift the voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day after lifting the first - layer additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day. In August, OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.4 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day. Kpler expects OPEC+ maritime exports to increase by more than 1.1 million barrels per day in September [2] - Kuwait will increase its crude oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day from October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [2] - The United States' crude oil production is basically stable, and new production capacities in countries such as Brazil, Guyana, and Norway have been put into operation, leading to a continuous increase in crude oil supply [2] Demand - side Factors - The peak season for crude oil travel is basically over. The EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased by 9.285 million barrels unexpectedly, but refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly, and overall oil product inventories continue to rise. The U.S. refinery's operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points [3] - The weak U.S. non - farm payrolls data has raised concerns about crude oil demand [4] Other Factors - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its September meeting, but Powell is still cautious about further rate cuts, and the macro - situation is temporarily stable [4] - The EU has passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting a crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and Russia's crude oil export situation [4] - Chinese independent refineries have reduced ESPO purchases due to uncertain quotas [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply-demand loosening logic continues. Although the futures price has support, there is no obvious upward driving force in the market. Attention should be paid to the progress and concentration of pre-holiday stocking [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened lower and moved higher, closing flat within the day. The spot market remains weak, with limited improvement in trading after low-price order absorption, and there is still pressure to lower prices to attract orders. The daily urea production has risen to over 190,000 tons, and the high production is suppressing the urea price. The downstream is stocking up before the double festivals, mainly buying at low prices. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, but the growth rate has slowed down. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of finished products in factories is high. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is significantly higher than the same period in previous years [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,655 yuan/ton, opened lower and moved higher, closing flat within the day, and finally closed at 1,658 yuan/ton, up 0.00%. The trading volume was 304,900 lots, a decrease of 2,508 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 3,030 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,876 lots. Some futures companies had net long or net short positions changes [2] - Spot: The spot market remains weak. The ex-factory transaction price range of small-grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,560 and 1,600 yuan/ton. Some factories in Hebei have higher quotes and are mainly fulfilling export orders [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at -38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [9] - Supply Data: On September 23, 2025, the national daily urea production was 201,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.93% [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On September 23, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,535, remaining unchanged compared to the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is to "wait and see" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market opened lower and fluctuated. The start - up rate of plastics was at a neutral level, and the downstream start - up rate of PE increased slightly but was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September was average, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of raw materials decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. Although the agricultural film was entering the peak season, the peak season was not as good as expected. There was no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, and it was recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On September 23, the start - up rate of plastics remained at around 85%, a neutral level. The downstream start - up rate of PE increased by 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film was entering the peak season, but the growth rate of orders and raw material inventory slowed down. Packaging film orders also increased. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of raw materials decreased as crude oil prices fell. A new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of Jilin Petrochemical HDPE was put into operation in late July, slightly reducing the plastics start - up rate. The peak season of agricultural film did not meet expectations, and there was no anti - involution policy, so it was recommended to wait and see [1] Futures Market - The plastics 2601 contract opened lower, increased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 7,090 yuan/ton, the highest was 7,128 yuan/ton, and it closed at 7,105 yuan/ton, down 0.67% below the 60 - day moving average. The position increased by 8,837 lots to 589,676 lots [2] Spot Market - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 80 to + 20 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7,010 - 7,570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,350 - 9,630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,430 - 8,150 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on September 23, the start - up rate of plastics remained at around 85%, a neutral level. On the demand side, as of the week of September 19, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased by 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film was entering the peak season, but the overall downstream start - up rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons on Tuesday, 95,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September was average, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The price of Brent crude oil's December contract dropped to 66 US dollars/barrel, and the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at 840 US dollars/ton and 845 US dollars/ton respectively [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) [1] Market Summary Futures Market Performance - As of September 23 closing, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Beans No. 2, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, soybean oil, and caustic soda dropped over 3%; palm oil, polysilicon, and soda ash fell over 2.5%. Shanghai gold and silver rose over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.25%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.26%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) dropped 0.78%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.16%. 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.05%, 5-year (TF) fell 0.13%, 10-year (T) fell 0.21%, and 30-year (TL) fell 0.67% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:15 on September 23, in terms of capital inflow to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 5.797 billion, Shanghai Gold 2512 had 3.357 billion, and CSI 300 2512 had 3.343 billion. In terms of outflow, Rapeseed Oil 2601 had an outflow of 789 million, Soybean Oil 2601 had 489 million, and Palm Oil 2601 had 429 million [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, oscillating weakly. Supply of copper ore and refined copper is tight. As of September 19, China's spot TC was -40.64 dollars/dry ton, RC was -4.05 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. Many smelters had maintenance in September, with small and medium - sized ones under profit pressure. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% MoM decrease but a 15.59% YoY increase. Affected by policies, scrap copper supply will decline significantly in September, and electrolytic copper output is expected to drop sharply. In August, imported copper quantity decreased to 307,200 tons, a MoM decrease of 27,300 tons. Demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, reducing SHFE inventory. Fundamentals are tight, demand is resilient, but overseas macro factors still impact Shanghai copper, leading to narrow price fluctuations [10] Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows a significant unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories, but a larger - than - expected build in refined oil inventories, increasing overall oil product inventories and reducing US refinery operating rates by 1.6 percentage points. Starting from October 2025, OPEC+ will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, increasing pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arabian Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by 1 dollar/barrel. With geopolitical risks not escalating further, the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase, it is recommended to short on rallies [11][12] Asphalt - Last week, asphalt operating rate dropped 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In September, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.686 million tons, a MoM increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a YoY increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%). Downstream operating rates rose, but road asphalt operating rate is still at the lowest level in recent years due to funds and weather. National shipments increased 31.10% MoM to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level. Refinery inventory decreased but is still at a low level in recent years. With new production and weather and fund constraints, supply surplus is intensifying, and with the recent decline in crude oil futures prices, asphalt cost support is weakening, and its futures price is expected to decline [13] PP - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. On September 23, new maintenance devices increased, and PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 80%, at a neutral - low level. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production remained around 24.5%. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, increased US distillate inventories, and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices fell. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Although downstream is entering the peak season, current peak - season demand is lower than expected, and there is no large - scale centralized procurement. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] Plastic - On September 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained around 85%, at a neutral level. PE downstream operating rate rose 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, with increasing orders and raw material inventories but at a slower pace. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's rate cut and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices declined. New capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has decreased. Although the agricultural film peak season is coming, the peak - season effect is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [16] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. PVC operating rate decreased 2.98 percentage points to 76.96%, at a neutral - high level in recent years. In the peak season, PVC downstream operating rate continued to increase, exceeding last year's level but still low compared to other years. India postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. Chinese PVC exports are expected to weaken in Q4, but export orders have increased recently. Social inventory continued to rise and is still high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. New capacity has been put into operation. With cost support strengthening and pre - holiday downstream stocking, but new production resuming and a low basis, PVC is expected to face downward pressure [18] Urea - Urea opened low and moved high, closing flat. The spot market remains weak, with limited improvement in sales after price cuts. Urea daily output has returned to over 190,000 tons. Before the holidays, downstream buyers stock up at low prices, and industrial demand is mainly for rigid needs. The compound fertilizer factory operating rate increased but at a slower pace, with high finished - product inventory. Urea factory inventory is increasing and is much higher than in previous years. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and it is necessary to monitor the progress and intensity of pre - holiday stocking [19][20]

【冠通研究】 铜价窄幅波动 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 23 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，偏弱震荡。基本面来看，供给端铜矿端及精铜产量呈现偏紧格 局。截止 9 月 19 日，我国现货粗炼费（TC）-40.64 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.05 美分/ 磅，TC/RC 费用保持弱稳。冶炼厂 9 月检修较多，目前中小冶炼厂盈利承压，后续精铜 供应依然紧张态势。8 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量为 117.15 万吨，环比减少 0.24%，同比上 升 15.59%。受政策影响 9 月废铜供应量将明显下降，预计 9 月电解铜产量将大幅下降。 精炼铜进口方面，8 月进口铜数量环比上月下降至 30.72 万吨，环比-2.73 万吨。需求端 目前交易节前补货逻辑，带动上期所库存近两日有所去化，综合来看，基本面依然偏 紧，需求有韧性，旺季需求转好及双节前需求增多的影响下盘面震荡偏强，但目前海外 宏观对沪铜冲击依然存在，宏观与基本面共振下，铜价窄幅波动，上下空间有限。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水 50 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 70 元/吨。2025 年 9 月 22 日，LME 官方价 9995 美元/吨，现货升贴水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of short - selling on rallies for asphalt. Due to increased supply, weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices, and restricted demand, the asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is to short - sell on rallies. Last week, the asphalt production start - up rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In September, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2686000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 273000 tons (11.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 683000 tons (34.1%). The downstream industry start - up rate rose, but road asphalt construction is still at the lowest level in recent years due to capital and weather. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 31.10% to 313600 tons. The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio decreased but remains at the lowest level in recent years. This week, production will increase, but demand is affected by weather and capital. With increased supply surplus and falling crude oil prices, the cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the asphalt futures price is expected to decline [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures 2511 contract fell 1.20% to 3373 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a low of 3364 yuan/ton and a high of 3395 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4519 to 231822 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 11 contract rose to 127 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the asphalt production start - up rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to July, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation and infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) continued to decline. As of the week of September 19, the downstream industry start - up rate rose, but road asphalt construction is still at the lowest level in recent years due to capital and weather. In August, the social financing scale increased less year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing stock slowed down [4] Inventory - As of the week of September 19, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 14.5%, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]

Group 1: Hot News - As of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets are nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond market sizes rank second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserve scale has ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years. The total assets of the banking and insurance industries currently exceed 500 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth of 9% in the past five years; trust, wealth management, and insurance asset management institutions manage nearly 100 trillion yuan in assets; "white - list" project loans exceed 7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [2] - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [2] - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has been in effect since February this year, will end on October 15, and a new export quota policy will be implemented. The annual export quota ceiling is set at 96,600 tons in 2026 and 2027 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years. By the end of 2025, more than 80% of steel production capacity should complete ultra - low emission transformation [3] - As of the week ending September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, the previous week was 63%, and the same period last year was 64%. The soybean harvest rate was 9%, lower than the market expectation of 12%, the previous week was 5%, and the same period last year was 12% [3] Group 2: Key Focus and Night - Session Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, silver, crude oil, and PVC [4] - Night - session performance by sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.58%, precious metals 31.73%, oilseeds and oils 10.70%, soft commodities 2.46%, non - ferrous metals 19.14%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 14.23%, energy 2.93%, chemicals 11.93%, grains 1.05%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.25% [4] Group 3: Large - Class Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the CSI 300 rose 0.46%, the SSE 50 rose 0.43%, the CSI 500 rose 0.76%, the S&P 500 rose 0.44%, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.76%, the German DAX fell 0.48%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.99%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.11% [7] - Fixed - income: The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.20%, the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.04% [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index fell 0.41%, WTI crude oil fell 0.05%, London spot gold rose 1.66%, LME copper rose 0.13%, and the Wind commodity index rose 3.06% [7] - Others: The US dollar index fell 0.35%, and the CBOE volatility index was unchanged [7]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance of Overnight Futures - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.03% to $3781.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.17% to $44.32 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with WTI crude down 0.10% to $62.34 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.06% to $66.00 per barrel [4]. - London base metals showed mixed results, with LME zinc, lead, and copper rising, while tin, nickel, and aluminum falling [4]. - Most domestic futures contracts closed lower, with 20 - rubber rising nearly 1%, and glass, soda ash, and others falling more than 2% [5]. 2. Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China conducted 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations and kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [8][9]. - As of September 22, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) dropped 12.9% from the previous period [10]. - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3 trillion since the 14th Five - Year Plan, and above $3.2 trillion in the past two years [10]. - The Fed's Bostic is reluctant to support another rate cut in October, and the Cleveland Fed's president Hamrick said the Fed needs to be "very cautious" in lifting restrictive policies [10][11]. 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 22, the styrene inventory in East China's main ports increased by 2.48 million tons to 40.85 million tons [14]. - From September 22 - 28, 2025, the number of expected arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 67% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 60% [14]. - As of the week of September 22, domestic asphalt social inventory decreased by 2.1% [15]. 4. Metal Futures - In August, China's lithium spodumene imports decreased by 17.5% month - on - month, equivalent to 56,000 tons of LCE [17]. - The silicon semiconductor industry has gradually completed destocking, and the demand for materials will be gradually released [17]. - In August 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7903 million tons, up 2.66% year - on - year and 0.35% month - on - month [17]. - Indonesia's state - owned tin miner PT Timah expects to achieve its annual tin output target of 21,500 tons [19]. - In August 2025, global primary aluminum production was 6.277 million tons [19]. 5. Black - Series Futures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to stabilize the growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, with an average annual growth target of about 4% for added value [21]. - From September 15 - 21, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments decreased, while China's port arrivals increased [22]. - Shougang Shuigang's bar rolling mill will be under maintenance from September 22 for 3 days, affecting the output of construction steel by 450 tons [24]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will promote the high - quality development of the housing and construction industry [24]. 6. Agricultural Futures - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil to trade between 4200 - 4500 ringgit in the coming weeks [26]. - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, and export data showed mixed results [26]. - As of September 17, the national live pig price decreased by 1.58% from September 10 [26]. - Argentina temporarily canceled export taxes on soybeans, corn, and wheat [29]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 0.9% of the expected total area [29]. - As of September 22, the national imported soybean port inventory decreased by 143,430 tons week - on - week [30]. - Brazil's soybean processing enterprises plan to invest $1.11 billion in the next 12 months [30]. - As of September 18, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons [30]. - As of September 21, the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate was 61%, and the harvest rate was 9% [31]. 7. Financial Markets Financial - The CSRC will accelerate the reform of the capital market, deepen the reform of the STAR Market, ChiNext, and the Beijing Stock Exchange [34]. - A - share indices rose, with funds concentrating on technology stocks [34]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, and cross - border internet brokers further closed the account - opening channels for mainland Chinese residents [33][34][35]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is consulting on the investor identification code system [36]. - Berkshire Hathaway has cleared its position in BYD, and Kweichow Moutai has not adjusted its annual performance target [36][38]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued plans for the steel and energy equipment industries [39]. - The Ministry of Sports issued a guidance on promoting the high - quality development of sports - promoted health [39]. - The central Cyberspace Administration launched a special campaign to rectify the issue of maliciously inciting negative emotions [39]. - As of the end of August, the number of tax - refund stores for outbound travelers in China exceeded 10,000, and the sales of tax - refund goods increased by 97.5% year - on - year [40]. - In the first half of 2025, the inventory book value of typical real - estate enterprises decreased by 4.6% [40]. Overseas - France recognized the State of Palestine [42]. - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts [42]. - The US Treasury Secretary is ready to support Argentina [42]. - France is considering a wealth tax on individuals with over 100 million euros in assets [42]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week [43]. - Turkey terminated additional tariffs on some US imports [43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks hit new closing highs, European stocks showed mixed results, and Japanese and South Korean stocks rose [45]. - Buffett increased his stake in Japanese trading companies, and Pfizer will acquire Metsera for up to $7.3 billion [46]. Commodities - International precious metal futures rose, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, and base metals showed mixed results [3][4][46]. - Congo (Kinshasa) will end the cobalt export ban on October 15 and implement a new export quota policy [48]. Bonds - Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [49]. - The Hong Kong Exchange added a floating reference rate option for north - bound swap connect [49]. - The central bank issued 60 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [50]. - Foreign investors continued to net - buy Japanese ultra - long - term government bonds in August [50]. - US Treasury yields rose [52]. Foreign Exchange - The Hong Kong dollar strengthened at the fastest pace in 20 years, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower [53]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [54]. 8. Upcoming Events - There are various economic data releases, corporate earnings announcements, and stock listings scheduled, along with statements from central bank officials [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are still tight with resilient demand. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is decreasing due to the improvement in peak - season demand and increased demand before the double festivals. The copper market is expected to show a strong - side oscillatory trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong - side oscillation during the day. The leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and Trump said the call was "very productive", with plans for a meeting during the APEC and a visit to China early next year. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the US dollar index has shifted upward. As of September 19, the spot TC was - 40.64 dollars per dry ton and RC was - 4.05 cents per pound, remaining weakly stable. Many smelters had maintenance in September, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The SMM China electrolytic copper output in August was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from the previous month and a 15.59% increase year - on - year. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and the electrolytic copper output in September is expected to drop sharply. The downstream demand has marginally improved, but the overall purchasing sentiment is cautious [1] Periodic and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, with a strong - side oscillation during the day, and the closing price was 80,160 yuan per ton. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 70 yuan per ton. On September 19, 2025, the LME official price was 9,982 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 78 dollars per ton [3] Supply Side - As of September 19, the latest data showed that the spot TC was - 40.64 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.05 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 29,900 tons, a decrease of 1,945 tons from the previous period. As of September 18, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 147,700 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 315,200 short tons, an increase of 2,364 short tons from the previous period [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of the urea market remains loose and has not reversed. Although the market shows oversold signals, it lacks driving forces and is currently bottoming out at a low level. Attention should be paid to potential rebound opportunities [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Since the weekend, upstream urea factories have mostly reduced prices to attract orders, and low - price transactions are good. There is still room for price cuts before the National Day holiday. The daily output of urea has recovered to over 190,000 tons, and high production suppresses prices. Near the Double - Festival, downstream has pre - stocking demand, and they buy on dips. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased but the growth rate has slowed, and terminal demand is weak. Urea factory inventory is increasing and is much higher than the same period in previous years [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1655 yuan/ton, closed at 1660 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.36%, and the trading volume was 307,400 lots (+10,142 lots). Among the top 20 long and short positions, long positions increased by 6,149 lots and short positions increased by 10,783 lots. On September 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,535, a decrease of 275 from the previous trading day [2] - **Spot**: Since the weekend, upstream factories have reduced prices to attract orders, and low - price transactions are good. The ex - factory transaction price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, and some factories in Hebei quote 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, mainly for export orders [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 40 yuan/ton (-19 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On September 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 200,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.51% [10]