冠通期货研究报告 --12月宏观经济月度报告 发布日期：2025年12月1日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 12月，国内市场关注的焦点将会落脚在中央经济工作会议对明年宏观经济的定调，海外则聚焦于12月FOMC会议的决议和点阵图的指 引，同时下一任美联储主席的提名人员及特朗普对待此事的态度，将会为2026年的全球资本市场埋下隐线。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 2 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 宏观分析 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 11月，资本市场笼罩着忧虑，对AI泡沫的争议再起，美元流动性的担忧，投资者恐慌情绪抬升，风险资产悉数承压。海外，英伟 达靓丽的财报暂时缓解了对AI投资过度的担忧，超预期的9月非农数据和部分美联储官员的鹰派言论弱化12月降息预期，美股冲高回落 一度造成市场恐慌，纽约联储主席鸽派喊话安抚市场，12月降息预期概率回升，风险资产止跌回暖。波动率指数VIX剧烈波动后收涨， ...

| 2025/12/1 | 一周走势 | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 指标 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 河北 | 1710 | 1680 | 30 | 河南 | 1680 | 1660 | 20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 山东 | 1690 | 1670 | 20 | 主流地区市场价 | 山西 | 1550 | 1530 | 20 | | | | | | | | | | | | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1680 | 1660 | 20 | 安徽 | 1680 | 1650 | 30 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑龙江 | 1740 | 1740 | 0 | 内蒙古 | 1750 | 1750 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 河北东光 | 1690 | 1660 | 30 | ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/01 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货大幅收涨，COMEX 黄金期货收涨 1.59%报 4256.4 美元/盎司， 周涨 4.34%，月涨 5.51%。COMEX 白银期货收涨 6.06%报 57.085 美元/盎司，刷新 历史新高，周涨 14.37%，月涨 17%。 2. 国际油价 ...

早盘速递 2025/12/1 热点资讯 1.财政部披露数据显示，1-10月，国有企业营业总收入683529.3亿元，同比增长0.9%；利润总额34214.4亿元，同比下降3.0% 。截至10月末，国有企业资产负债率65.2%，同比上升0.4个百分点。 2.国家外汇局公布，10月，我国国际收支货物和服务贸易出口3416亿美元，进口2625亿美元，顺差792亿美元。6月末，我国对 外证券投资资产（不含储备资产）16942亿美元，其中，股权类投资10763亿美元，债券类投资6179亿美元。 3.上期所调整氧化铝和天然橡胶期货及期权持仓限额。自2026年1月1日起，氧化铝期货从AO2603合约开始，自合约挂牌至交割 月前第二月的最后一个交易日取消比例限仓并将限仓数额调整为8000手，交割月前一月限仓数额由1800手调整至900手，交割 月份限仓数额由600手调整至300手；天然橡胶期货从RU2603合约开始，自合约挂牌至交割月前第二月的最后一个交易日限仓数 额由500手调整至1000手，交割月前第一月限仓数额由150手调整至300手，交割月份限仓数额维持50手不变。 4.12月一批新规将实施。资源税征管新规12月1日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On November 28, 2025, new maintenance devices such as Maoming Petrochemical LDPE were added, causing the plastic operating rate to drop to around 88%, and the current operating rate is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the overall is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The supply of new production capacity was put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, and traders are cautious about the future market. Although relevant meetings have given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics has not changed, and it is expected that the upside space of plastics will be limited in the near future [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The addition of new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down. The cost - end crude oil price fluctuated at a low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on a rigid - demand basis, and traders are cautious about the future market. Although relevant meetings have given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics has not changed, and the upside space of plastics is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6702 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6793 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6789 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.10%. The trading volume decreased by 38333 lots to 457393 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market rose, with price changes ranging from - 80 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6770 - 7150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8620 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6930 - 7600 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 28, new maintenance devices such as Maoming Petrochemical LDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 88%, at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 28, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3% month - on - month. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, orders decreased, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The early inventory of petrochemicals on Friday was flat month - on - month at 650,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract rose to $63/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price was flat month - on - month at $720/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price was flat month - on - month at $730/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market shows an upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to factors such as high inventory, low downstream demand, and price decline of related products [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and is at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined and is at a low level. India's cancellation of the BIS policy on PVC eases export concerns, but the price of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, in December has generally dropped by 30 - 60 dollars/ton. The social inventory has slightly increased and is still high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities have been put into operation. Although the government's research on price competition gives a certain boost to bulk commodities, the upward space of PVC is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with the lowest price of 4525 yuan/ton, the highest price of 4562 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4549 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.07% and a decrease in the position volume of 73,842 lots to 1,118,577 lots [2]. - In terms of the basis, on November 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4445 yuan/ton, the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4489 yuan/ton, and the current basis was - 72 yuan/ton, weakening by 28 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The operating rates of devices such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai have increased. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation or are in low - load operation [1][4]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area, sales amount, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all showed year - on - year declines. As of the week of November 23, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.56% month - on - month but was still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 27, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% month - on - month to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory was still high [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The spot price of urea has risen continuously, and the downstream's willingness to purchase is acceptable. The futures price has followed the increase. However, as the price rises and approaches the pressure level, the futures market is expected to experience a correction and fluctuate within a narrow range [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Analysis - The futures market opened high and moved strongly throughout the day. The price continued to rise, and the consecutive positive days in the market boosted sentiment. The enthusiasm for fertilizer preparation was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding by about 10 yuan/ton, with the highest price in Hebei [1][4] - The daily production of urea is significantly higher than the same period in previous years. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - based plants, the daily production of upstream plants will remain high. Starting next month, there will be more gas - based plant overhauls [1] - The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continued to increase. After the production of winter - storage fertilizers, the production load gradually climbed. Although the recent pre - orders were not good, the pending orders were still sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise next week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased by 2.45 percentage points this period [1] - Other industrial demands were mainly stable. The operating rate of melamine decreased by 1.4 percentage points this period. High raw material prices restricted the downstream operating rate [1] - Since the recent price increase, the downstream terminal's purchasing speed has increased, and the enthusiasm of agricultural dealers to purchase has significantly increased. Coupled with reserve demand, the inventory has decreased for several consecutive weeks, with a week - on - week decline of 5.1% this week [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1679 yuan/ton, opened high and moved strongly throughout the day, and finally closed at 1677 yuan/ton, forming a negative line with a change of +0.72%. The trading volume was 223,887 lots (-7,026 lots). Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 232 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,429 lots [2] Spot - The price continued to rise, and the consecutive positive days in the market boosted sentiment. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding by about 10 yuan/ton, with the highest price in Hebei [1][4] Warehouse Receipts - On November 28, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,587, a week - on - week increase of 406. Among them, Jiashili Jingzhou (Yuntu Holdings UR) decreased by 99, Anzhou Logistics (Sichuan Agricultural Materials UR) increased by 250, Ningling Stanley increased by 105, and Hengshui Cotton and Linen increased by 150 [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both increased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis of the January contract was - 17 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On November 28, 2025, the national daily production of urea was 205,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.85% [9]

震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 28 日 【行情分析】 今日铜低开高走，震荡偏强，印尼 Grasberg 矿区预计明年二季度复产，铜冶炼端长 单谈判依然在进行中，目前粗炼费精炼费延续窄幅波动，基本无变化。精炼铜进口环比 减少，但国内铜相对供应充裕，暂时未出现货源偏紧的状态。770 号文目前尚未落地， 再生铜杆企业开工谨慎，江西安徽等产地再生铜杆产量下降，后续随着政策的落地，预 计再生铜杆开工负荷能有回升。上周铜价下跌后，下游市场逢低拿货有增加，2025 年 10 月中国铜材产量 200.4 万吨，环比下滑超 10%，同比下降 3.3%；主要系 10 月份铜价大幅 反弹，受成本高价的制约，铜材生产受抑制，负反馈铜基本面偏弱势。近期上期所铜库 存冲高回落，库存压力有所缓解，但依然同比偏高，处于历年同期高位。综合来看，近 期随着美联储降息的预期概率提升，美元走弱，铜价也逐渐反弹，基本面暂无明显变 化，关注库存去化持续性，降息预期未反转之前，预计偏强。 【冠通期货研究报告】 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜低开高走，震荡偏强。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水 105 元/吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index, unclear prospects for US interest rate cuts, concerns about crude oil demand, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in the crude oil market. However, due to the difficulty in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. Production increases will be suspended in the first quarter of next year, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter but unexpectedly reduce the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year. The next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30, and it is expected that OPEC+ will maintain production levels [1]. - The US - Venezuela military confrontation has escalated, with the US military conducting attack exercises in the Caribbean Sea, raising concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to achieve in the near term [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, rose 1.98% to 453.9 yuan per ton today, with a minimum price of 448.1 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 455.0 yuan per ton, and an open interest decrease of 2359 to 33,652 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA also raised its forecast for US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC adjusted the third - quarter global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and adjusted the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA's annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050, while IEA previously expected global oil demand to peak in 2030. IEA also adjusted its forecasts for global crude oil supply and demand growth rates in 2025 and 2026 [3]. 4. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 21, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels, all exceeding expectations. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 68,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day. OPEC+ crude oil production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week of November 21 decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [4]. 5. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.789 million barrels per day, a 0.06% increase compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.743 million barrels per day, a 0.17% decrease compared to the same period last year. The single - week supply of US crude oil products increased by 0.41% month - on - month [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, but the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased. The 11 - month petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. Although the supply of new production capacity is added and the maintenance devices are slightly reduced, the downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and the plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 28, the changes in maintenance devices were small, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 28%. In November, the petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. There is new production capacity in supply, and the maintenance devices have slightly decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. Although the relevant departments' research work has given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6302 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6413 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6409 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.91%. The position volume decreased by 50,595 lots to 506,658 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PP in various regions mostly increased. The drawstring was reported at 6150 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 28, the changes in maintenance devices were small, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 28%. On the demand side, as of the week of November 28, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and the plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday was flat week - on - week at 650,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 02 contract rose to $63/barrel, and the China CFR propylene price was flat week - on - week at $735/ton [6]