Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Urea futures opened low and moved high with an upward trend today. Spot prices have been declining since the weekend, and upstream factories' price - cuts to attract orders were effective with increased orders. In terms of fundamentals, Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan started a long - cycle shutdown, and the production is expected to decline slightly. After the weekend price - cuts, the trading became smooth, and the futures turning positive stimulated downstream purchases. Agricultural corn top - dressing demand has ended, and industrial purchases are the main downstream demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continues to rise and is expected to keep rising this month, increasing the demand for urea. Currently, domestic demand is insufficient, but there are expectations of improved industrial demand. The inventory de - stocking has reached an inflection point and started to accumulate last week. The market is mainly in a volatile state, and future market trends depend on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer factories and export conditions. The 09 contract is approaching delivery with limited upward and downward space [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved high today. Spot prices dropped since the weekend, and upstream factories' price - cuts to attract orders were successful with more orders received. Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan's long - cycle shutdown may lead to a slight production decline. After the weekend price - cuts, trading became smooth, and the futures' rise spurred downstream purchases. Agricultural corn top - dressing is over, and industrial purchases are dominant. The compound fertilizer factories' operating rate is rising and expected to continue, increasing urea demand. There are expectations of improved industrial demand despite current insufficient domestic demand. Inventory started to accumulate last week, and the market is volatile. The 09 contract has limited space as it nears delivery [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1714 yuan/ton, closed at 1733 yuan/ton with a 1.11% increase, and the trading volume was 142200 lots (- 489 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions decreased by 945 lots and short positions increased by 1061 lots. For example, Hongyuan Futures' net long positions increased by 1002 lots, while Guangfa Futures' decreased by 720 lots; CITIC Futures' net short positions increased by 2570 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' decreased by 596 lots [2] Spot - Spot prices have been falling since the weekend. Upstream factories' price - cuts to attract orders were effective with more orders. The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton [5] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable but weak, and the futures closing price slightly declined. Based on Shandong region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 27 yuan/ton (- 34 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - On August 4, 2025, the national daily urea production was 187,600 tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 79.87% [12] Warehouse Receipts - On August 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3373, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]

1. Overnight Night Market Trends 1.1 International Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 2.01% to $3416 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 2.41% [2] - COMEX silver futures rose 1.07% to $37.11 per ounce, with a cumulative decrease of 3.28% [2] 1.2 London Base Metals - LME tin rose 1.54% to $33,215 per ton, with a cumulative decrease of 2.48% [2] - LME nickel rose 0.56% to $15,020 per ton, with a cumulative decrease of 1.96% [2] - LME aluminum rose 0.25% to $2,571.5 per ton, with a cumulative decrease of 2.43% [2] 1.3 Crude Oil - US crude oil futures fell 2.89% to $67.26 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 3.22% [2] - Brent crude oil futures fell 3.00% to $69.55 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.79% [2] 1.4 Domestic Commodity Futures - Most domestic commodity futures closed lower. Black - series commodities generally declined, with coke down 2.75%, coking coal down 2.42%, and rebar down 1.18% [3] - Energy products mostly fell, with low - sulfur fuel oil down 2.51%, fuel oil down 1.78%, and LPG down 1.61% [3] - Chemical products mostly dropped, with rubber down 1.35%, bitumen down 1.34%, and styrene down 0.82% [3] - Oilseeds and oils showed mixed performance, with soybean meal up 0.63%, soybean No.2 up 0.35%, and palm oil down 1.24% [3] 2. Important Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Information - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will speed up the revision of the Price Law, and the relevant draft is soliciting public opinions. It will also regulate low - price and disorderly competition and market price order [5] - The NDRC will govern enterprises' disorderly competition, promote capacity management in key industries, standardize bidding, and carry out market access barrier cleaning [5] - The NDRC has established a regular communication mechanism with private enterprises and is taking measures to address "involution - style" competition [5] - The China Futures Association is soliciting public opinions on the "Management Rules for Unfair Competition in Futures Brokerage Business (Draft for Comment)" [5] - China opposes the abuse of tariffs, and the People's Bank of China hopes that the US - China Business Council will contribute to Sino - US relations [6][7] - As of August 1, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 41.85 points, and the China Export Containerized Freight Index fell 2.3% [9] - The People's Bank of China will continue a moderately loose monetary policy [9] - US non - farm payrolls in July were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose slightly [9] - Trump commented on the Fed's interest rate and Powell's position, and traders increased bets on a Fed rate cut in September [10][11] 2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - The "Measures for the Circulation of Refined Oil Products" will come into effect on September 1, 2025 [13] - OPEC + decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and the next meeting is on September 7, 2025 [15] 2.3 Metal Futures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the 2025 special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry [17] - Last week, copper inventory decreased by 880 tons, while aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin inventories increased [18] - A primary lead smelter in North China will conduct a 25 - day maintenance in late August, affecting about 9,000 - 9,500 tons of lead production [19] - As of July 31, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of 13 domestic silicone DMC sample enterprises was 70.08%, up 4.97% week - on - week [20] - An Australian mining company shipped 349,973 tons of bauxite from a Guinean port for the first time [20] - An earthquake in Chile on August 1 caused casualties at a Codelco copper mine, and the expected copper production in 2025 is 370,000 metal tons [22] 2.4 Black - Series Futures - Coal mines in southern Shaanxi are self - checking for over - production [24] - South African port maintenance from September to November may affect manganese ore shipments, but the impact on the Chinese market is expected to be limited [24] - In July, silicon - manganese production increased 8.94% month - on - month, and silicon - iron production increased 7.88% month - on - month [24] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, and the daily hot - metal output decreased by 1.52 million tons week - on - week [24] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports decreased by 132.48 million tons week - on - week [25] - This week, the total urban inventory increased by 21.64 million tons (+2.88%), construction steel inventory increased by 13.78 million tons (+3.47%), and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.50 million tons (+3.62%) [26][27] 2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - From July 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased 7.07% month - on - month [29] - Indonesia exported 11 million metric tons of palm oil from January to June, up 2.69% year - on - year [30] - As of August 1, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 43.85 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 116.78 yuan per head [30] - From July 26 to August 1, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 225.39 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.36%, 11.87 million tons lower than expected [30] 3. Financial Market 3.1 Finance - The new - share market on the Beijing Stock Exchange remains hot. Dingjia Precision rose 479.12% on its first trading day, and all 7 new stocks listed this year have seen significant gains [32] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO pricing mechanism reform took effect on August 4, focusing on optimizing the new - share allocation ratio and other aspects [34] - Stock private - equity positions have slightly increased, with hundred - billion - level private - equity funds increasing their positions significantly [34] - A - share market indices corrected last week, but institutions believe the core logic for the rise remains unchanged and suggest focusing on certain sectors [35] - Public - offering institutions expect the A - share market to continue a structural market and the attractiveness of Hong Kong stock dividend assets to increase [35] - CITIC Securities focuses on AI, innovative drugs, resources, Hengke, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board [35] - China Merchants Securities believes the market may be volatile in early - mid August and resume its upward trend in late August [36] - Public - offering funds' IPO subscription strategies are shifting from "easy profit - making" to "professional - based" [38] 3.2 Industry - In July, China's new - energy vehicle market continued to grow, with BYD, SAIC, and Geely having high sales, and new - force brands like Leapmotor and XPeng Motors showing significant growth [39] - As of August 3, the single - day movie box office in the 2025 summer season reached a new high, and the total box office exceeded 7 billion [39] - Hospitals in many places are strictly regulating pharmaceutical representatives [40] - Paper companies have issued multiple price - increase notices, but the impact on the end - market is uncertain [40] 3.3 Overseas - The Bank of England may cut interest rates again on Thursday [41] 3.4 International Stock Markets - Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk's stock price dropped over 30% last week, and its market value evaporated over $100 billion [42] 3.5 Bonds - The bond - trading enthusiasm of small and medium - sized banks reached a new high in July, with city and rural commercial banks' trading volume exceeding 17 trillion yuan [43] - As of August 3, the issuance scale of panda bonds in the inter - bank market this year was 116.65 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance scale has exceeded 1 trillion yuan [43] 3.6 Foreign Exchange - Some investors believe the US dollar will continue to rise in the coming months, and institutions have made corresponding investment suggestions [44] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events 4.1 Economic Data - Japan's July base money at 07:50 [47] - Switzerland's July CPI at 14:30 [47] - Spain's July unemployment number at 15:00 [47] - Switzerland's July SVME Purchasing Managers' Index at 15:30 [47] - Eurozone's August Sentix Investor Confidence Index at 16:30 [47] - Canada's national economic confidence index as of August 1 at 20:00 [47] - US June factory orders at 22:00 [47] - US 3 - month/6 - month Treasury bill auction results as of August 4 at 23:30 [47] - South Korea's July foreign exchange reserves at 05:00 the next day [47] 4.2 Events - 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will mature at 09:20 [49] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's new - share market pricing optimization takes effect on August 4 [49]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Oscillating operation" [1] Core Viewpoint - The report suggests interval operation for asphalt investment. It anticipates that asphalt will oscillate in the near term due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, cost support, and policy impacts [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - This week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In August, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 129,000 tons (5.1%) month - on - month and an increase of 353,000 tons (17.1%) year - on - year [1] - This week, the开工 rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt开工率 remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1] - This week, the supply in the East China region recovered, mainly through ship shipments, with a significant increase in shipments. The national shipments increased by 1.26% to 272,400 tons, at a moderately low level [1] - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline this week and remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may reduce the discount for China's purchase of asphalt raw materials. Recent increases in crude oil prices have strengthened the cost support for asphalt [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned that a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries (including petrochemicals and building materials) will be gradually released. Policies such as inventorying old petrochemical and chemical plants and eliminating 20 - year - old backward facilities are more beneficial for long - term expectations but have limited impact on the near term [1] - Next week, some refineries in Shandong and East China will switch production or have intermittent shutdowns, and rainfall in some areas will still affect the rigid demand for asphalt [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2509 fell 0.19% to 3,658 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,632 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,668 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 9,212 to 116,780 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 132 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Xinjiang Meihuite and some refineries in Shandong resumed asphalt production. The asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly recovered compared with January - May 2025 but remained negative [4] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was 0.6%, up from - 0.4% in January - May 2025, ending consecutive negative cumulative year - on - year growth [4] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, down from 5.6% in January - May 2025 [4] - As of the week ending August 1, the开工 rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt开工率 remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1][4] - The government work report proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of the social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value: 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 908.8 billion yuan year - on - year. New government bonds were 1.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 507.2 billion yuan year - on - year. New loans were 2.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 171 billion yuan year - on - year [4] Inventory - As of the week ending August 1, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% compared with the week ending July 25, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: After the copper tariff is implemented, the market returns to fundamentals. With prices falling continuously, downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices, and trading sentiment has improved. The short - term market is bearish, and the price may find support around 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether the non - farm payroll data tonight affects the interest rate cut expectation [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply - demand situation has tightened, which supports the downside. However, there is a possibility of giving back the gains if the production suspension news is falsified [8]. - Crude Oil: The recent crude oil price is in a strong oscillation. On August 3, the 8 voluntary OPEC+ production - cut countries will announce their September crude oil production policy, so it is recommended to operate cautiously and mainly wait and see [10]. - Asphalt: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. The cost support has strengthened, and policies are more favorable for the far - month outlook, but the impact on the near - month is limited [11][12]. - PP: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. It is recommended to conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread. The industry has not seen actual policy implementation, and the market sentiment is weakening [13]. - Plastic: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. The industry lacks actual policy support, and the macro - sentiment is weakening [14][15]. - PVC: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. The demand has not improved substantially, and the macro - sentiment is cooling [16]. - Coking Coal: The downward space is limited under the expectation of supply tightening, but attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent production decline on demand [18]. - Urea: The market is still in a weak operation as the fundamentals lack obvious support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 1, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Lithium carbonate and red dates rose by more than 1%. Coking coal dropped by more than 7%, and industrial silicon dropped by more than 4%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:28 on August 1, Shanghai copper 2509, coking coal 2601, and Shanghai gold 2510 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Individual Futures Analysis Copper - The US imposed a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive manufactured goods on August 1. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly. The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling. The copper tariff implementation may affect export demand. The short - term market is bearish [7]. Lithium Carbonate - It opened high and closed low, then rose in the afternoon and ended up. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The market expects a reduction in supply, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream demand is expected to increase [8]. Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. The US crude oil inventory is at a low level, but the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on September production on August 3. The price is in a strong oscillation [10]. Asphalt - The supply is expected to decrease in August. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. The cost support has strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate [11][12]. PP - The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low - to - neutral level. The US tariff and propane import restrictions have an impact. The inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [13]. Plastic - The开工 rate has increased. The downstream开工 rate is at a low level. The inventory is high. The cost has increased. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. PVC - The开工 rate is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak. The inventory is high. The demand has not improved substantially, and it is expected to oscillate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The supply may be tightened, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The demand from downstream steel mills is strong, but attention should be paid to the impact of production decline [18]. Urea - The production is expected to decrease slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has started to accumulate. The market is weak [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is under pressure with a weak fundamental outlook and is expected to be volatile. After the implementation of copper tariffs, the market has returned to fundamentals. With prices continuously falling, downstream buyers are purchasing at lower prices, leading to improved trading sentiment. The short - term market trend is bearish, and the price is expected to find support around 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether tonight's non - farm payroll data affects the interest rate cut expectation [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - On August 1, the US imposed a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive manufactured goods, with the scope far lower than market expectations, causing a sharp decline in New York copper prices. The US dollar has been rising, putting pressure on the market. In China, in July, the SMM electrolytic copper production increased by 3.94 million tons month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year. Although TC/RC fees are still negative, they have stopped falling. Smelters can currently rely on by - products to make up for losses and have raw material reserves, so production enthusiasm is okay. The concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant reduction in raw material inventory. The future tariff on copper semi - finished products may affect export demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low, rose in the afternoon, and closed lower at 78,400 yuan/ton. The number of long orders from the top twenty decreased by 5,658 to 110,615 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 3,371 to 110,750 hands [4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 15 yuan/ton. On July 31, 2025, the LME official price was 9,650 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 44 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of July 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.73 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 US cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 20,300 tons, an increase of 727 tons from the previous period. As of July 31, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 75,100 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 141,800 tons, a slight increase of 3,550 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 257,900 short tons, an increase of 1,967 short tons from the previous period [8].

执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 13657.9 302.71 9012.09 299.46 2240.5 39.38 240.71 83.46 90.24 65.37 -15.00 上期 13790.38 315.15 8885.22 301.1 2371.2 40.68 242.23 83.46 90.81 63.64 -21.00 周变动 -132.48 -12.44 126.87 -1.64 -130.70 -1.30 -1.52 0.00 -0.57 1.73 6.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 10493.62 1717.06 380.14 1067.08 本期 8921.45 4843.07 5996.85 上期 10636.09 1682.5 390.29 1081.5 上期 9044.57 4778.6 6193.25 周变动 -142.47 34.56 -10 ...

Hot News - The State Council executive meeting chaired by Li Qiang emphasized focusing on the annual development goals, enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, and stimulating the endogenous driving force of economic development [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission's 2025 H1 situation briefing meeting stressed promoting the construction of a unified national market, reforming the tendering and bidding system, and promoting the healthy development of the private economy [3] - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce hoped that the EU would maintain market openness and provide a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises [3] - In July, affected by factors such as the traditional off - season in manufacturing and natural disasters, the PMI dropped to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMI output indexes were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point [3] - US inflation data for June slightly exceeded expectations. The core PCE price index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, complicating the Fed's interest - rate cut path [4] Sector Performance Key Attention - Key sectors to focus on include coking coal, polysilicon, glass, soda ash, and alumina [5] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance shows that non - metallic building materials rose 2.79%, precious metals 27.86%, oilseeds 12.26%, non - ferrous metals 20.83%, soft commodities 2.67%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.40%, energy 3.42%, chemicals 11.76%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.83% [5] Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In terms of equities, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% daily, the SSE 50 fell 1.54%, the CSI 300 fell 1.82%, the CSI 500 fell 1.40%, the S&P 500 fell 0.37%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.60%, the German DAX fell 0.81%, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.02%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.05% [7] - For fixed - income products, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.17%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.08%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01% [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index fell 1.79%, WTI crude oil fell 1.11%, London spot gold rose 0.45%, LME copper fell 0.94%, and the Wind commodity index fell 0.58% [7] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.08%, and the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, macro - economic news, and performance across various sectors including commodities, finance, and industries. It shows that domestic commodity futures generally declined, while the global economic situation is complex with factors like Fed's interest - rate decisions, trade policy adjustments, and regional economic data influencing market movements. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with the main contract of coking coal futures hitting the daily limit down, glass down over 8%, and polysilicon down nearly 8% [2][52]. - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.31% and COMEX silver futures down 2.51%. However, they had cumulative increases in July [2][52]. - Oil prices dropped due to a large increase in US inventories. WTI crude futures fell 0.91% and Brent crude futures fell 0.86%, but both had significant cumulative increases in July [2][53]. - London base metals closed lower across the board, affected by the Fed's hawkish stance and trade policy disruptions [3][55]. Important Information Macro - Information - The State Council emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness and promoting economic reform. The NDRC focused on building a unified national market and promoting the healthy development of the private economy [6]. - China's July PMI dropped to 49.3%, and non - manufacturing and composite PMI also declined slightly but remained above the critical point, indicating overall economic expansion [7]. - US June inflation data slightly exceeded expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut schedule [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of July 31, the total inventory of float glass samples in China decreased for six consecutive weeks, and the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased for the third consecutive week but remained at a high level [10]. - Anhui's new photovoltaic glass furnace production cut is expected to lead to a decline in domestic glass supply and inventory in August [11]. - The ANRPC expects a 0.5% increase in global natural rubber production and a 1.3% increase in demand in 2025 [11]. - Singapore's fuel oil and middle distillate inventories increased, while light distillate inventories decreased [11]. Metal Futures - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the social inventory increased slightly [13]. - In Q2, China's gold ETF inflow reached 464 billion yuan, a record - high quarterly performance, driven by global trade risks and soaring gold prices [13]. - In H1 2025, China's exports of new - energy commercial vehicles increased by 230% year - on - year, and the overseas market is also expected to double [15]. - The GZFE solicited opinions on platinum and palladium futures and options contracts and related rules [15][16]. Black - Series Futures - In July 2025, the steel industry PMI returned to the expansion range, and in August, steel demand may continue to recover weakly, with prices fluctuating [18]. - The coking coal long - term agreement floating value in July increased by 3.8% compared to June [19]. - Some coal mines in Changzhi suspended production or reduced output, leading to a decrease in daily coal production [21]. - As of July 31, rebar production and apparent demand decreased, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [21]. - Some coking coal mines' production was restricted, and coal inventories decreased to low levels [22]. - The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton, with significant regional differences [22]. Agricultural Product Futures - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in August, increasing the export tax [24]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased compared to the previous month according to different survey agencies [25][27]. - The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar to be loaded increased [27]. - Brazil's soybean, corn, and other agricultural product exports showed different trends in the specified period [27]. - The prices of live pigs in China decreased, and the proportion of pig - to - grain decreased slightly [28]. - The drought - affected areas of US soybeans, corn, and cotton showed different changes [28]. - US soybean exports and sales showed an upward trend [28]. - Canada's rapeseed and wheat exports decreased [30]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares closed lower, with cyclical sectors falling and some technology - related sectors performing well. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined on the day but had cumulative increases in July [32]. - The Hong Kong stock market closed lower, but southbound funds had a large net inflow, and Meituan received significant additional investment [32]. - The SSE accepted the IPO application of Taimed Biopharmaceuticals, the first company under the restarted fifth listing standard of the STAR Market [33]. - *ST Guangdao on the BSE had a "ground - to - sky" board on July 31 [33]. Industry - The NHSA formulated a new drug pricing mechanism and added price items related to medical new technologies [34][35]. - The NEA is formulating policies for high - power charging facilities and promoting their construction [35]. - In H1, China's renewable energy and new - energy storage installed capacity increased significantly [35]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration required urban commercial medical insurance to avoid "involution" competition [36]. - From January to July, the sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises decreased year - on - year, and the decline in July was more significant [36]. - The MIIT solicited opinions on three mandatory national standards for electric vehicles [37]. - In July, China's auto dealer inventory warning index decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month [38]. Overseas - Brazil and India will not yield to US trade pressure [39]. - Trump criticized the Fed, and the US inflation data exceeded expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut schedule [40][41]. - Trump urged pharmaceutical companies to reduce drug prices in the US [41]. - US corporate layoffs in July increased significantly year - on - year [42]. - US initial jobless claims increased slightly, and continuing jobless claims remained unchanged [43]. - The BOJ maintained interest rates and raised the inflation forecast [43]. - Inflation in Germany, France, and Italy showed different trends [43]. International Stock Markets - US and European major stock indexes closed lower, affected by inflation and trade concerns, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September decreased [44][45]. - Apple and Amazon's Q2 financial reports showed different performance, with Apple's stock rising after - hours and Amazon's falling [46]. - Wenyuanzhixing's Q2 revenue increased significantly, especially in the Robotaxi business [47]. - Samsung's Q2 operating profit decreased significantly, mainly due to the chip business [48]. - BMW's Q2 sales and profit decreased, but vehicle deliveries increased slightly [49]. - Shell's Q2 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and the company announced a stock - buyback plan [50]. - Unilever's Q2 sales and profit growth slightly exceeded expectations [51]. Commodities - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with significant declines in some varieties [52]. - In Q2, global gold demand increased year - on - year, but central bank gold purchases slowed down [52]. - International precious metal futures closed lower, with cumulative increases in July [52]. - Oil prices dropped due to a large increase in US inventories [53]. - London base metals closed lower, affected by the Fed's stance and trade policies [55]. Bonds - The domestic bond market continued to be strong, with treasury futures rising and bond yields falling [56]. - In June, China's bond market issued a large amount of various bonds, and overseas institutions' bond custody balance reached 4.3 trillion yuan [56]. - US Treasury yields showed different trends, with short - term yields rising due to inflation data [56]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated on Thursday, and the central parity rate was also adjusted downwards [57]. - The Indonesian rupiah fell to a one - month low, and the central bank intervened in the exchange rate [58]. - The US dollar index fell slightly, and most non - US currencies rose [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper tariff policy announced by the Trump administration on July 31, 2025, has a scope exceeding market expectations, causing the market to reverse previous gains. Subsequently, copper may return to a fundamental trading logic with a bearish outlook. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and the upside is restricted by uncertain expectations [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate is under pressure today. Although downstream sentiment has improved, high inventory restricts the upside. The anti - involution measures have not ended, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode. Future trends depend on the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. - Crude Oil: Entering the seasonal travel peak, the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on production in September on August 3. Saudi Aramco has raised prices, and geopolitical factors have led to a recent strong and volatile oil price. Caution is advised [10]. - Asphalt: Supply is decreasing, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and inventories are at a low level. With cost support strengthening and policies beneficial for the long - term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. - PP: Downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has new capacity and increasing maintenance. With cost rising and policies not yet implemented, PP is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: New capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. With cost rising and policies not yet effective, plastic is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: Supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. With policies not yet having a real impact, PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The fundamentals are fair, with inventory transfer and downstream demand remaining strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled, and caution is needed in trading [18]. - Urea: Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate. The 9 - 1 spread has reached a historical low [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 31, most domestic futures contracts closed lower. SC crude oil rose over 1%, while glass dropped over 8%, and coking coal and polysilicon dropped over 7%. In terms of funds, Shanghai Gold 2510, Glass 2509, and Soda Ash 2509 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, Polysilicon 2509, and Rebar 2510 had outflows [4]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The Trump administration's new copper tariff policy excludes upstream raw materials, and the scope is lower than expected, causing a sharp decline in New York copper. Domestically, the TC/RC fee is negative but stable. Refineries can still maintain production, but the new tariff may affect export demand [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has decreased. The supply - side reform has not ended, and the market is waiting for the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. Crude Oil - Entering the peak travel season, U.S. crude oil inventories are low. The EIA report shows gasoline de - stocking, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC+ will make production decisions in September, and Saudi Aramco has raised prices. Geopolitical factors have led to a strong and volatile oil price [10]. Asphalt - Last week, asphalt production decreased, downstream demand increased slightly, and inventories decreased. The cost support has strengthened due to rising oil prices. Policies are beneficial for the long - term, and asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. PP - Downstream PP demand is weak, with a decrease in downstream and enterprise operating rates. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance has increased. Cost has risen, and policies have not been effectively implemented, so PP is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - New plastic capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory pressure is large. Cost has risen, and policies have not had an impact, so plastic is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - PVC supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. Policies have not had a real impact, so PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal fundamentals are fair, with increasing Mongolian coal imports and a slight decrease in domestic production. Inventory has been transferred, and downstream demand is strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled [18]. Urea - Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate [19].

制作日期：2025 年 7 月 31 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开低走震荡下行，尾盘收跌 2%。市场成交活跃度不高，现货价 格稳中下降，工厂暂时待发充足，现货报价暂时无太大下行空间。基本面来 看，供应端维稳，今日新疆塔石化临时检修，大约进行一年左右，河南有装置 有检修计划，其他地区基本正常。需求端，主交割区农业需求追肥结束，下游 承接以工业拿货为主，三聚氰胺本期开工负荷下行，正值终端淡季，天气高温 多雨限制户外作业。复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计本月将持续上行，秋 季肥生产期间，对尿素增量有限，因其以高磷复合肥为主，内需目前刚需为 主，无拉涨动能。近期宏观情绪扰动多，重大会议后市场情绪有降温，大宗商 品普遍收跌，尿素方面出口带来的需求增加目前在盘面基本兑现完成，后续配 额不变的情况下影响相对较小，市场情绪缓和后，盘面震荡为主，目前主力临 近交割月，9-1 价差已至历史低点。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1739 吨低开低走，最终收于 1714 元/吨，收 成一根阴线，涨跌-2.00%，持仓量 141557 手（-5600 手）。前二十名主力持仓席 位来看，多头-529 手，空头-41 ...