Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing down at the end of the session. The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The supply is sufficient, and although some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in August, the daily output remains high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and the domestic demand has declined. Despite the support of export containerization, the inventory reduction rate has slowed down, indicating weak terminal demand. The current market is bearish, but there is still a possibility of a rebound. Overall, the market remains in a weak and volatile state [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market was weak, affecting the spot market. Supply is ample, and although there will be maintenance in August, the daily output stays high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and domestic demand is sluggish. The market is currently bearish but may rebound, remaining weak and volatile [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1730 yuan/ton, moved high, and closed down at 1744 yuan/ton, with a decline of -0.06%. The trading volume was 152,980 lots (-144 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, long positions increased by 1,701 lots, and short positions increased by 3,744 lots [2] - **Spot**: The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The mainstream ex - factory prices of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continued to move down [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 26 yuan/ton (-26 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On July 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 193,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.47% [11]

重点关注 尿素、碳酸锂、豆油、原油、螺纹 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.60% 贵金属, 28.03% 油脂油料, 12.08% 煤焦钢矿, 15.55% 能源, 3.29% 化工, 11.93% 谷物, 1.15% 农副产品, 3.19% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% -12.00% -10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 第 1 页，共 3 页 有色, 19.23% 软商品, 2.95% 早盘速递 2025/7/29 热点资讯 1、当地时间7月28日，中美两国经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。这是继瑞士日内瓦经贸会谈达成一系列重要共 识、英国伦敦经贸会谈确立伦敦框架后，中美双方再次就经贸问题举行面对面磋商，旨在将两国元首重要共识转化为具体政策 ...

地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/7/29 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1、国内工业品期货迎来大幅回调，焦煤、玻璃、焦炭、纯碱、工业硅、碳酸锂 六大品种主力合约集体跌停，氧化铝、多晶硅等超 10 个品种跌幅超 3%。此前， 前述相关品种受"反内卷"相关政策推动，积累了较大涨幅。夜盘，黑色系普 遍下跌，焦煤下跌 10.25%，焦炭下跌 3.79%。 2、美欧协议和欧佩克增产推高油价，美油主力合约收涨 2.79%，报 66.98 美元 /桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 2.87%，报 69.6 美元/桶。国际油价上涨主要受美 欧贸易协议达成和欧佩克+坚持增产计划推动。中信证券指出，协议消除关税威 胁并支持美国能源出口，提振需求预期；欧佩克+维持增产表明供应稳定，强化 市场信心。 3、国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.65%报 3314.00 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.09%报 38.33 美元/盎司。泰国和柬埔寨达成停火协议，地 缘政治风险缓解削弱避险需求。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具 ...

冠通期货研究咨询部 通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货每月核心策略推荐 制作日期：2025年7月28日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号： F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 冠 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 宏观 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 2 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 石油化工 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 第 4 页 4 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 铜 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 尿素 | 部 | | | --- | --- | | 询 | | | 咨 | | | 究 | | | 研 | | | 货 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish outlook, suggesting selling on rallies [4][9][10] - Asphalt: Neutral outlook, recommending range trading [4][60][62] - PVC: Bearish outlook, suggesting selling on rallies or 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [4][112][113] - L&PP: Neutral outlook, recommending range trading or 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [4][154][155] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The cease - fire between Iran and Israel eased supply concerns. OPEC+ will increase production in August and September. Although in the peak season, demand will weaken over time, causing prices to face pressure in August [9] - Asphalt: Supply is expected to decrease in August, but downstream demand will be affected by funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. The potential increase in Venezuelan diluted asphalt raw materials may lead to a sideways movement [61] - PVC: Upstream calcium carbide prices are weak. Supply is still at a relatively high level, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. It is expected to decline with short - selling opportunities [112] - L&PP: August is the traditional maintenance season, but production remains high due to new capacity. The downstream is in the off - season, but demand is expected to improve. It is expected to move sideways [154] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Prices rose in July, affected by geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production decisions, and Saudi price adjustments [12] - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: WTI non - commercial net long positions declined in July, and Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts decreased [16] - **Production**: OPEC production increased in June, and OPEC+ will raise production in August and September. US production decreased in the week of July 18 [20] - **Drilling Rigs**: US oil drilling rigs decreased in July [24] - **US Imports and Exports**: US crude imports decreased, and exports increased in the week of July 18 [28] - **China's Processing and Imports**: China's crude processing and imports increased in June [32] - **US Economic Data**: US CPI rose in June, and the European Central Bank maintained interest rates [36] - **Crack Spreads**: US and European gasoline and diesel crack spreads increased in July [40] - **US Demand**: US gasoline demand increased, and diesel demand decreased in the latest data [45] - **Inventory**: US crude, gasoline, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased in the week of July 18 [49][53] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Houthi rebels upgraded their maritime blockade, and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation is back on track [55] Asphalt - **Market Review**: The asphalt/ crude ratio decreased in July, and the basis declined [69][73] - **Production and Capacity**: Asphalt production decreased in June, and the expected production in August will decline slightly [61][81] - **Consumption and Shipment**: Apparent consumption increased in May, and the national shipment increased in the week of July 25 [85] - **Profit and开工率**: The开工率 decreased at the end of July, and the spot - end profit loss in Shandong expanded [89] - **Imports and Exports**: No detailed analysis of the trend was provided in the report [93][96] - **Downstream Situation**: Road transport investment increased in the first half of 2025, and the asphalt downstream开工率 increased in the week of July 25 [101][106] PVC - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the report [114] - **Upstream Situation**: Calcium carbide prices fell in July, with slightly improved profitability, and semi - coke prices and profitability decreased [121] - **Production and开工率**: PVC production decreased slightly in June, and the开工率 decreased in the week of July 25 [125][129] - **Imports and Exports**: Imports increased in June, exports decreased but remained high, and anti - dumping tax delays may stimulate exports [137] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate is still in adjustment, with continued year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas in the first half of 2025 [141] - **下游开工率**: PVC下游开工率 increased slightly in the week of July 25 but remained at a low level [144] - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory increased in the week of July 24 [148] Polyolefins (L&PP) - **Market Review**: The basis of plastics and PP decreased, falling to a low level [166][170] - **Production and开工率**: PE and PP production were at high levels in June, and the开工率 increased recently [175][182][186] - **Imports and Exports**: PE and PP imports decreased in June, and exports were at high levels. Net imports are expected to decline [192][199] - **下游情况**: Plastic product production increased in the first half of 2025, and exports turned positive in June. The downstream开工率 of PE and PP decreased slightly in the week of July 25 [203][207] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased on July 25 but remained at a relatively high level [211] - **Profit**: Coal - based and oil - based PE profits decreased in July, and coal - based PP remained profitable [216]

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 制作日期：2025年7月28日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 冠通期货-2025年8月 铜月度报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 核心观点—沪铜 ➢ 宏观方面：7月期间，海外美联储降息问题摇摆不定，鲍威尔任职不确定性不断受质疑，另外美国贸易关税问题再度席卷重来，同时市 场预期依旧的铜关税以50%最终落地，纽约铜大幅拉涨而其他地区铜下挫。国内方面，反内卷举措不断升温，工信部在国新办新闻发布 会上表示，石化、有色金属、新能源等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，国内大宗商品均出现不同幅度的上行。 ➢ 供给方面：截至2025年6月，铜矿石及其精矿进口数据234.97万吨，环比上月减少4.5万吨左右，预计后续铜关税落地后，铜精矿或向国 内转移增多，届时预计铜精矿将增多。随着铜精矿进口数量的下降，及国内冶炼厂高开工负荷，精铜矿库 ...

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货-2025年8月 尿素月度报告 制作日期：2025年7月28日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 观点： 核心观点 供应端：按照目前日均产量测算，7月份产量预计在603万吨，高于往年同期水平。进入季节性检修旺季，尿素日产近期波动位于20万吨以 下的水平，预计8月份尿素产量将环比下降，其中煤头装置的产量预计变动幅度大，同时近期煤炭价格受反内卷举措影响大，成本端给尿素 带来一定支撑。 需求端：即将进入8月农需空档期，近日玉米肥迎来收尾，复合肥工厂处于秋季肥初级阶段，订单以预收款为主，成品库存不断累积，目前 对原料端的准备比较弹性，尿素已备肥近四成，工厂开工负荷预计继续增加，但秋季复合肥以高磷复合肥为主，后续增量有限。 库存端：7月份尿素库存不断去化，近期去化幅度放缓，但同比去年依然偏高。目 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on July 28, 2025, showed a mixed performance with most main contracts falling, and different varieties had their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their trends [7]. - For various commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policies (anti - involution, trade policies), and macro - economic situations (tariffs, interest rate expectations). Each commodity is expected to have different trends, including oscillation, weakening, or potential rebounds [3][5][10] Variety - Specific Summaries 1. Soybean Oil - Today, the main 09 contract of soybean oil opened at 8160 yuan/ton and closed at 8120 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. It has been oscillating in the 8050 - 8160 yuan/ton range for 3 days, with weakening upward momentum. The supply is abundant as US soybeans are growing well and domestic soybean crushing volume is high, while the demand is weak due to the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and one can consider buying on dips. Attention should be paid to US weather in August and US - EU trade negotiations [3]. 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, hitting the daily limit. Spot prices in Shanxi and Mongolia increased. Supply has little change, and inventory is being transferred downstream. With the fourth round of coke price increases expected and strong downstream demand, the sharp rebound was due to anti - involution expectations and demand from hydropower projects. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. One should operate cautiously and watch for policy support [5]. 3. Copper (Shanghai Copper) - The copper market showed a weakening trend today. As of June 2025, copper ore imports decreased, and the inventory of refined copper ore is decreasing. Although TC/RC fees are negative, smelters' production enthusiasm is okay. The apparent consumption of copper is at a high level, but future consumption may be affected by trade policies. With overseas tariffs about to be implemented and the Fed's interest - rate decision in focus, the domestic market is supported by policies. The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the tariff implementation next month [10]. 4. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and high, hitting the daily limit. The average price increased. The weekly capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the production in June increased. The price of spodumene supports the lower price, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. One should watch the production capacity and output of lithium salt plants and mines [11][12]. 5. Crude Oil - Crude oil is in the seasonal peak travel season, with US inventories at a low level. OPEC+ will increase production in August. The IEA raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025. With sanctions on Russian oil and potential impacts on supply, and the downstream in the peak season, the crude oil price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to OPEC+'s production policy in September [13]. 6. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply decreased as the start - up rate dropped last week, and the planned production in August will decrease. The downstream start - up rate mostly increased, but was still restricted by funds and weather. The inventory ratio decreased. With potential increases in raw material supply and upcoming policies, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate [14][15]. 7. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also dropped due to new maintenance. The inventory is high, and the cost of coal increased. With new production capacity and slow downstream recovery, and considering trade policies and potential policies, the PP price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [16]. 8. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate increased with the restart of some plants, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The inventory is high, and the cost of coal increased. With new production capacity and the off - season for some downstream products, and considering trade policies and potential policies, the plastic price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17][18]. 9. PVC - The PVC start - up rate decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is still low. The export situation is general, and the inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment, and the demand has not improved substantially. With potential policies, the PVC price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [19]. 10. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract of soybean meal showed a weakening trend today, with a 1.16% decline. The supply is abundant as the domestic soybean crushing volume is high and the production of soybean meal exceeds demand, leading to inventory accumulation. The demand is expected to weaken due to policies. With the weakening of US soybeans, the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, import costs, and oil - mill crushing [21]. 11. Rebar - The main 2510 contract of rebar decreased by 2.05% today. The short - term trend is bearish, while the long - term pattern is still in a recovery adjustment. The real - estate and infrastructure demand is weak, and the raw - material cost support is insufficient. The social inventory is accumulating. Short - term speculators can short on rallies, and hedging enterprises can gradually establish short - hedging positions. Attention should be paid to macro data and steel - mill production cuts [22]. 12. Hot - Rolled Coil - The main 2510 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.30% today. The short - term upward momentum is weak, and the long - term trend is in a recovery. The demand from real - estate and infrastructure is limited, and the raw - material cost support is insufficient. The social inventory is accumulating. Short - term speculators can short on rebounds, and hedging enterprises with inventory pressure can increase short - hedging positions [24]. 13. Urea - The urea price decreased by more than 3% today. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The inventory reduction slowed down, indicating poor terminal demand. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. The market is expected to be weak and oscillate in the medium term, but there may be rebounds due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [25].

Group 1: Policy and Market News - The State Council executive meeting deployed measures to gradually implement free preschool education, requiring local governments to refine work plans and allocate subsidy funds [2] - In the first half of the year, the national fiscal revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, and tax revenue increased year - on - year for three consecutive months. Fiscal expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. The third batch of 6.9 billion yuan in trade - in subsidy funds has been issued, and the remaining 6.9 billion yuan will be issued in October [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures on the DCE, which will be the first cash - settled futures on the DCE and the first monthly average price futures in the domestic commodity futures market [2] - The DCE restricted the daily opening positions of non - futures company members or clients in certain coking coal futures contracts from July 29, and the GIE restricted the daily opening positions in the lithium carbonate futures LC2509 contract from July 28 [2] - The GIE is promoting the R & D of photovoltaic module futures with a brand delivery system and is also working on the R & D and listing of platinum, palladium, and lithium hydroxide futures, which are expected to be listed this year [2] Group 2: Commodity Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on include urea, coking coal, PVC, asphalt, and soybean meal [2] - In the night session, different commodity futures had various price changes and position - increasing ratios [2] - In terms of sector performance, precious metals had a 28.07% increase, followed by non - ferrous metals (19.63%), coal - coking - steel - ore (15.62%), etc. [5] Group 3: Asset Performance - For major stock indices, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.33%, a monthly increase of 4.33%, and an annual increase of 7.22%. Other indices like the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also had different performance [7][8] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes [8] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, etc., had their respective daily, monthly, and annual price changes [8] - Other assets such as the US dollar index and CBOE volatility also showed different trends [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Urea's futures market opened low and closed lower, with a decline of over 3% at the end of the session. The upstream factory quotes have been on a downward trend since the weekend, and market activity is low. Fundamentally, urea supply is sufficient, with daily production remaining at a high level. Although production is expected to weaken this month, the loose supply pattern has not changed. On the demand side, agricultural demand continues to weaken, and downstream demand is mainly supported by the rigid needs of compound fertilizer factories. Although there is support from export containerization, the inventory reduction rate of urea factories has slowed down, indicating weak terminal demand. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the market may rebound in the short - term but will be weakly volatile in the medium - term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea's futures market opened low and closed lower, with a decline of over 3% at the end of the session. The upstream factory quotes have been on a downward trend since the weekend, and market activity is low. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although there was a short - term rise last week, the market has cooled down. The market may rebound in the short - term but will be weakly volatile in the medium - term [1] Futures Market - The urea main contract 2509 opened at 1750 yuan/ton, closed at 1738 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.34%. The trading volume was 153124 lots (-18485 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions decreased by 6716 lots, and short positions decreased by 9851 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed. On July 28, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2900, an increase of 377 compared with the previous trading day [2] Spot Market - The upstream factory quotes have been on a downward trend since the weekend, and market activity is low. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is 1740 - 1770 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, with the basis of the September contract at 52 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton). On July 28, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,700 tons, remaining flat compared with the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.47% [8][10]