Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - The mainstream market prices of urea in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Jiangsu increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous value, while those in Anhui, Heilongjiang, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [2]. - The factory prices of Hebei Dongguang, Shandong Hualu, Jiangsu Linggu, and Anhui Haoyuan remained unchanged [2]. Basis - The Shandong 05 basis remained unchanged at -71 yuan/ton, the Shandong 01 basis decreased by 4 yuan/ton to -86 yuan/ton, the Hebei 05 basis increased by 10 yuan/ton to -51 yuan/ton, and the Hebei 01 basis increased by 6 yuan/ton to -66 yuan/ton [2]. Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 71 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts decreased by 209 to 7181 [2]. International Quotations - The international quotations of urea in the Middle East FOB, US Gulf FOB, Egypt FOB, Baltic FOB, and Brazil CFR remained unchanged [2].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 27, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum rose over 6%, Shanghai silver rose over 3%, eggs and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, and palm oil rose nearly 2%. Palladium, soybean meal, glass, peanuts, and industrial silicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate fell nearly 2%, and asphalt and short - fiber fell over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.11%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.11%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 0.34%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 0.08%. 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract fell 0.01%, 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.06%, and 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.01% [5][6] - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 27, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 3.12 billion yuan, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.146 billion yuan, and Shanghai tin 2601 had an inflow of 668 million yuan. On the other hand, rebar 2601 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, apple 2601 had an outflow of 528 million yuan, and coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 464 million yuan [6] 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and moved low, showing a slightly stronger oscillation. US initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ending November 22, lower than the expected 225,000. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is ongoing, with the rough smelting and refining fees remaining stable. Refined copper imports decreased month - on - month, but domestic copper supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange copper has been accumulating, and there is no shortage of supply for now. The 770th document has not been implemented yet, and the operation of recycled copper rod enterprises is cautious. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, down over 10% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. Recently, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has declined after reaching a high, and the inventory pressure has eased but is still high year - on - year. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price has rebounded. If the positive factors do not materialize, the copper price may decline slightly [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with a decline during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher year - on - year. The price of spodumene increased, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by the season. In October, the domestic output of energy - storage batteries was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, up 21.1% and 20% year - on - year. After being stimulated by industry news, the futures price rose and then fell. The sustainability of downstream energy - storage orders is questionable, and the price has been fluctuating weakly in the past two days. It is recommended to operate with caution [10] Crude Oil - On November 2, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November increase plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30. This will increase the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve the pressure in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the increase in US crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventory has increased slightly. US crude oil production is near the historical high. However, the number of active US oil drilling platforms decreased by 12, increasing the expectation that low oil prices will limit US crude oil production growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky said he will continue to negotiate the peace plan with the US. The risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined, but it is difficult to reach a peace agreement in the near term. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, raising concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. With the end of the consumption peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the unclear prospect of US interest rate cuts, the market is worried about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the Middle East's exports are increasing. The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate at a low level [11][13] Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The operating rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed performance last week, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34%, restricted by funds and weather. In the Northeast region, asphalt production increased, and sales volume increased significantly after price cuts. The national sales volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area shut down a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat. Shandong Shengxing and other refineries will stably produce asphalt this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase. With the decline in northern temperatures, road construction is coming to an end, and the demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and the overall demand is dull. The basis of Shandong asphalt has remained at a neutral level, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [14] PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream woven products of PP remained flat at 44.24%, and the orders decreased slightly compared with the previous year. On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 83%, at a slightly low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn products remained at around 31%. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as woven products is limited, the price of BOPP film has declined, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. With supply surplus and weakening cost support, it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly [15][16] Plastic - On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of plastic enterprises remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders, at a neutral level in the same period over the years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film has increased slightly again, and the orders of packaging film have increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE and 700,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was recently put into operation. The operating rate of plastic has decreased slightly. The agricultural film is at the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season is not as good as expected. With the temperature drop, the demand in the north has begun to decrease, and the price of agricultural film has started to decline. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally offer discounts to sell actively. With the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern and weakening cost support, it is expected that plastic will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near term [17] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. Currently, the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate of PVC continued to decline slightly, still at a low level although higher than the past two years. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating the concern about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, and PVC exports increased last week through price cuts. However, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton. The social inventory increased slightly last week and is still high, with great inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further declined. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The real estate market needs time to improve. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than in previous years. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Tianjin Bohua is operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons per year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons per year of Jiaxing Jiahua are operating at low capacity after trial operation. There are no actual policies in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. The elimination of old devices and the solution of over - capacity problems in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect the future market. The maintenance of production enterprises such as Henan Lianchuang is about to end, the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China have decreased, and the decline in coking coal and other futures prices has dampened market sentiment. Recently, PVC has been fluctuating weakly [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, showing a weak performance during the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1,000 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to Mysteel statistics, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 86.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and the daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port may increase next week. However, there is still an expectation of production reduction and shutdown at the end of the year, and it is expected that the production will decrease month - on - month next month. The mine inventory has increased significantly. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of steel mills and the molten iron output increased last week, with the daily molten iron output at 236,280 tons, a 0.25% month - on - month decrease, and the profit of steel mills continued to weaken. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline seasonally. The decline trend of coking coal has slowed down in the past two days. It is expected that the future fundamentals will show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market situation also needs to pay attention to the winter storage situation at coal ports, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [20] Urea - The futures price of urea opened high and moved high, showing an increase during the day. The market situation has improved slightly, with prices rising. After the low - price quotes rebounded, the order receiving is still good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,580 to 1,610 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 10 yuan/ton, with the high - end quotes in Hebei. Fundamentally, the daily output is significantly higher than the same period over the years. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - based devices, the daily output of upstream factory devices will remain at a high level. The current daily output data is about 6% higher than last year. The compound fertilizer factories are still operating. After the production of winter - storage fertilizers, the production load is gradually increasing. Although the pre - order situation has been poor recently, the pending orders are still sufficient. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories increased by 2.45 percentage points this period. Since the price increase recently, the downstream terminal purchasing speed has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly. With the reserve demand, the inventory has been decreasing for several weeks, with a 5.1% week - on - week decline this week. Overall, both supply and demand are increasing. The urea price is fluctuating strongly at a low level, with both upward and downward price pressures. The futures price will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range. The current demand is mainly reserve - type demand, with limited sustainability. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream acceptance after the price increase [21][22]

【冠通期货研究报告】 关注下游需求持续性 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 27 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开高走，日内上涨。行情稳中有所好转，报价抬升，低价报价反 弹后，收单依旧良好。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1580-1610 元/吨，反弹 10 元/吨左右，高端报价在河北地区。基本面来看，日产 大幅偏高于历年同期，气头装置季节性停产以前，上游工厂装置日产将高位运行， 今日日产数据同比去年偏高 6%左右。复合肥工厂开工继续进行，一方面冬储肥 生产以后，生产负荷逐步爬升，虽近期预收单状况欠佳，但目前待发依旧充足， 预计下周将继续提升开工率。本期复合肥工厂开工环比回升 2.45 个百分点。近 期价格上涨以来，下游终端拿货速度有所提高，拿货积极性明显增加，叠加储备 需求，库存连续数周去化，本周环比回落 5.1%。整体来说，供需双增，尿素价格 低位偏强震荡，价格上下均有压制，盘面价格窄幅波动为主，目前需求以储备型 需求为主，持续性不足，关注价格上涨后下游接受情况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1653 元/吨开盘, 高开高走，日内上涨，最 终收于 1668 元/吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of asphalt is expected to increase as some refineries will stabilize production, while the demand will weaken further with the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt scheduled production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month-on-month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year-on-year [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 34% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. The asphalt shipments in the Northeast increased significantly due to increased production and price cuts, and the national shipments increased 15.28% to 246,000 tons week-on-week, at a slightly below - average level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. Crude oil prices fell due to factors such as the non - impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. A fire in Venezuela led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened under US military threats [1]. - This week, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt operating rate will rise. With the temperature drop in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will weaken further. The project increments in the south are limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 1.41% to 3,007 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,003 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,040 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 2,170 to 154,449 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to - 7 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt operating rate dropped 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with that from January to August 2025 but remained negative. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 0.1% from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of November 21, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 34% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and financial market developments across various asset classes including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides data on production, inventory, and trade in different sectors, along with economic indicators from major economies. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Trends - **Commodity Futures**: - **Energy**: WTI crude oil rose 1.04% to $58.55/barrel, Brent crude rose 1.02% to $62.43/barrel [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold rose 0.45% to $4196.10/ounce, COMEX silver rose 4.13% to $53.76/ounce [5]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals rose, with LME aluminum up 2.27% to $2864/ton, LME zinc up 2.07% to $3055/ton, etc. [5]. - **Domestic Futures**: Methanol and glass rose over 1%, while asphalt fell over 1% [6]. - **Financial Markets**: - **A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15% to 3864.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.02% and the ChiNext Index rose 2.14% [34]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.13% to 25928.08 points [35]. - **Global Stocks**: US, European, and most Asian major stock indices closed higher [47]. Important News - **Macro - economic News**: - **Ukraine Crisis**: The US proposed a "28 - point" plan for the Ukraine crisis, with differences among parties. Zelensky is willing to meet Trump, and the Ukrainian negotiator denied the claim of "principle agreement" [9]. - **US Economy**: Initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000, the lowest since April 2025. Morgan Stanley economists expect the Fed to cut rates in December [12]. - **China - EU Trade**: Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held a video meeting with EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security to discuss issues like Nexperia [11]. - **Industry - specific News**: - **Energy and Chemicals**: Major paper companies plan to raise prices. UAE's Fujeirah port's refined oil inventory increased, while China's methanol port inventory decreased. EIA reported changes in US oil production, exports, and reserves [14][16][17]. - **Metals**: Global alumina production in October 2025 increased. New gold resources were discovered in Sichuan. Platinum and palladium futures will be listed on November 27 [19][22][49]. - **Black - series Futures**: Steel production in mid - November showed mixed trends, and coking coal auction prices in Linfen fell [24][26]. - **Agricultural Products**: China - US soybean trade is "on track". Hog prices are expected to rebound seasonally, and corn prices may stabilize [28]. Financial Markets - **Stocks**: - **A - shares**: The market had mixed performance, with some sectors rising and others falling [34]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The market rose slightly, with some stocks having significant price movements and changes in capital flows [35]. - **Global Stocks**: Most major global stock indices closed higher, driven by factors like Fed rate - cut expectations [47]. - **Bonds**: - **Domestic Bonds**: The domestic bond market was under pressure, with rising yields and falling futures prices [52]. - **Japanese Bonds**: Japan plans to issue new bonds, and the 40 - year bond auction had strong demand [52]. - **US Bonds**: Yields showed mixed movements [52]. - **Foreign Exchange**: - **Renminbi**: The RMB strengthened against the US dollar, breaking through the 7.08 mark [54]. - **Other Currencies**: The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [54]. Upcoming Events - **Economic Data Releases**: China's October industrial enterprise profits, Germany's December GfK consumer confidence index, etc. will be released [56]. - **Important Meetings and Announcements**: There are central bank meetings, government press conferences, and corporate product launches scheduled [58].

Group 1: Hot News - Trump proposed a "28 - point" new plan to end the Ukraine crisis, and parties have differences on some terms. Zelensky is willing to meet Trump to discuss the "peace plan", and the Ukrainian negotiating representative denied the claim that Ukraine has "principally agreed" to the US "peace plan" [2] - Kremlin spokesman Peskov said it's too early to conclude that the Ukraine conflict is about to end [2] - On November 26, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held a video meeting with EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Šefčovič to discuss economic and trade issues such as Nexperia [2] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, the lowest since the week of April 12, 2025 [2] - JPMorgan economists changed their prediction, believing that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in December [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: asphalt, methanol, coking coal, lithium carbonate, and Shanghai gold [3] - Night - session performance of commodity futures: non - metallic building materials rose 3.11%, precious metals rose 29.49%, oilseeds rose 9.76%, non - ferrous metals rose 22.38%, soft commodities rose 2.82%, coal, coke, steel, and ore rose 12.59%, energy rose 3.02%, chemicals rose 11.09%, grains rose 1.45%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 4.28% [3] Group 3: Sector Position - The graph shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Annual Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, German DAX, Nikkei 225, UK FTSE 100 | - 0.15, 0.12, 0.61, 0.15, 0.69, 0.13, 0.98, 1.85, 0.85 | - 2.29, - 1.32, - 2.65, - 4.99, - 0.40, 0.08, - 1.10, - 5.44, - 0.26 | 15.29, 10.69, 14.81, 21.64, 15.83, 29.25, 19.02, 24.23, 18.58 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures, 5 - year Treasury futures, 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.36, - 0.22, - 0.05 | - 0.76, - 0.31, - 0.17 | - 0.99, - 0.76, - 0.59 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, Wind Commodity Index | 0.00, 1.05, 0.74, 0.00, 0.34 | - 2.69, - 3.79, 3.99, - 0.54, - 0.28 | - 0.79, - 18.58, 58.62, 23.36, 30.26 | | Other | US Dollar Index, CBOE Volatility Index | - 0.22, 0.00 | - 0.14, 6.42 | - 8.20, 6.97 | [5] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: November 26, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations, and their price trends vary [6]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Peanuts rose nearly 4%, polysilicon rose nearly 3%, glass and Shanghai silver rose nearly 2%, and lithium carbonate, urea, and live pigs rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell nearly 8%, and polypropylene (PP), coke, coking coal, plastic, and fuel oil fell more than 1%. The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.41%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.14%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) remained flat, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.09%. The main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.21%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.36%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.86%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 26, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.313 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 1.266 billion yuan, and lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 919 million yuan; in terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 2.86 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 2.76 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 1.355 billion yuan [6][7]. Copper - Today, copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. The US economic data had little impact on copper prices. The copper concentrate inventory has been accumulating for a week, and the Indonesian Grasberg mine is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is still ongoing, and the refining fees remain stable. Although the import of refined copper has decreased, the domestic supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also been accumulating. The implementation of Policy 770 is yet to be determined, and the production of recycled copper rods in some regions has decreased. After the decline in copper prices last week, downstream procurement increased. Overall, after the Sino - US leaders' dialogue, the international risk expectation has eased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will be strong before the interest rate cut meeting [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, rising during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 92,800 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 90,400 yuan/ton, both rising by 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of October 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year. The price of spodumene has risen, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by seasonality. The demand for energy storage is expected to be strong, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly. The inventory of lithium carbonate has been continuously decreasing. The market is affected by industry news and sentiment [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year. The end of the peak demand season, the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, and the high - level US crude oil production have put pressure on the market. Geopolitical factors such as the conflict between the US and Venezuela, the armed conflict in Libya, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine also affect the market. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly [12][14]. Asphalt - The operating rate of asphalt last week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The operating rates of downstream industries varied. The shipment volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of demand due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in asphalt futures prices [15]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn wire, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly. On November 26, some overhauled devices restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 83%. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the increase in supply due to new capacity and reduced overhauls, combined with the end of the peak season for downstream demand, are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in PP prices [16][17]. Plastic - On November 26, the operating rate of plastic remained at about 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The new capacity of some enterprises has been put into production, and the operating rate has slightly decreased. The destocking of petrochemicals has slowed down, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in plastic prices [18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. The operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties have increased export orders, but the quotes of Formosa Plastics in December have decreased. The social inventory has increased slightly and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The new capacity has been put into production, and it is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate weakly [19][20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, falling during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal decreased by 2 yuan/ton. In October, China's coal imports decreased year - on - year. The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased slightly. The inventory of mines has increased significantly, while the inventory of coking enterprises has decreased. The steel mill's operating rate and hot metal production have increased, but the profit has weakened. The coking coal price has recovered the previous increase, and there may be opportunities for the market to be boosted by winter storage meetings and major domestic meetings [21]. Urea - The futures price of urea opened low and moved high, showing a strong trend during the day. The spot price is still weak, but the low - price transactions in the market are good. The daily production is much higher than the same period in previous years, and it is expected to remain above 190,000 tons before the seasonal shutdown of gas - fired devices. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed down. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has recovered, and the inventory of urea has decreased for several weeks. The market demand has improved, but the upward space is limited due to sufficient supply [23].

【冠通期货研究报告】 震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 26 日 【行情分析】 今日铜高开高走，震荡偏强，数据显示，美国 9 月 PPI 同比增长 2.7%，预估增长 2.7%，前值为增长 2.6%；美国 9 月 PPI 环比增长 0.3%，预估增长 0.3%，前值为下降 0.1%。美国 9 月核心 PPI 同比增长 2.6%，预期增长 2.7%，前值增长 2.8%。美国 9 月零 售销售环比增长 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.60%。铜精矿库存连续一周累库，印尼 Grasberg 矿区预计明年二季度复产，铜冶炼端长单谈判依然在进行中，目前粗炼费精炼 费延续窄幅波动，基本无变化。精炼铜进口环比减少，但国内铜相对供应充裕，上期所 铜库存也连续累库，暂时未出现货源偏紧的状态。770 号文目前尚未落地，再生铜杆企 业开工谨慎，江西安徽等产地再生铜杆产量下降，后续随着政策的落地，预计再生铜杆 开工负荷能有回升。上周铜价下跌后，下游市场逢低拿货有增加，2025 年 10 月中国铜 材产量 200.4 万吨，环比下滑超 10%，同比下降 3.3%；主要系 10 月份铜价大幅反弹，受 成本高价的制约，铜材生 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and with the weakening cost support, it is expected that plastics will continue to show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On November 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The new capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) were recently put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly [1][4]. - As of the week of November 21, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% month - on - month. The agricultural film is still in the peak season with stable orders, but the peak season is less than expected. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline in the future [1][4]. - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. The Wednesday petrochemical early inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year [1][4]. - The cost of raw material oil decreased. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration tried to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky showed an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 9,240 lots to 497,599 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with the price change ranging from - 80 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,620 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3].

【冠通期货研究报告】 库存连续数周去化 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 26 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面低开高走，日内偏强。现货价格依然走弱，但受期货上涨影响，市 场低价成交良好，部分工厂出现停售现象。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿 素出厂价格范围在 1570-1620 元/吨，低端价格成交较好，高端价位成交氛围一 般。基本面来看，日产目前大幅偏高于历年同期，预计在气头装置季节性停产以 前，上游工厂装置日产将在 19 万吨以上波动，煤炭成本端，上涨趋势放缓，下 游需求有待验证，若旺季证伪，成本端支撑将下移。本期复合肥工厂开工负荷回 升，上周环保检查结束后，企业装置逐渐恢复生产，且东北地区部分装置开始开 工，部分装置开工负荷已提升至较高水平，目前企业通过原料采购情况进行预收 单的处理。近期价格上涨以来，下游终端拿货速度有所提高，拿货积极性明显增 加，叠加储备需求，库存连续数周去化，本周环比回落 5.1%。 整体来说，市场 低价成交增多，需求好转，盘面价格反弹，上方供应充足压制下，反弹受限。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1630 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内偏强，最 终收于 1654 元 ...