Hot News - On September 17, Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao announced in the 2025 Policy Address that Hong Kong will cooperate with exchanges in the Greater Bay Area to develop new businesses such as commodity trading and carbon trading [2] - As of the end of July, the balance of national housing consumer loans excluding individual housing loans reached 21.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 34.6 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and a year-on-year increase of 5.34% [2] - After nearly a decade of negotiations, the EU and Indonesia have completed a trade agreement, part of the EU's efforts to diversify supply chains and explore new markets [2] - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, resuming the rate cut suspended since December last year [2] - Fed Chairman Powell said there was no broad support for a 50-basis-point rate cut at this week's meeting [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are 20 rubber, rebar, staple fiber, Shanghai Copper II, and Shanghai Gold [4] Night Session Performance - Night session performance of commodity futures main contracts shows varying degrees of increase and decrease, with details of price changes and position increase ratios presented [4] Sector Performance - Non-metallic building materials sector had a 2.66% increase [5] - Sector capital ratios: precious metals 29.85%, oils and fats 11.11%, non-ferrous metals 20.57%, soft commodities 2.30%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 14.68%, energy 3.07%, chemicals 11.53%, grains 1.03%, agricultural and sideline products 3.20% [6] Asset Performance - Stock indices performance: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% daily, 0.48% monthly, and 15.65% annually; Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.17% daily, -0.80% monthly, and 9.98% annually; CSI 300 Index rose 0.61% daily, 1.21% monthly, and 15.66% annually; CSI 500 Index rose 0.96% daily, 3.07% monthly, and 26.80% annually; S&P 500 Index fell -0.10% daily, rose 2.17% monthly, and 12.22% annually; Hang Seng Index rose 1.78% daily, 7.30% monthly, and 34.14% annually; German DAX Index rose 0.13% daily, -2.27% monthly, and 17.33% annually [8] - Performance of other assets includes various bonds, commodities, and indices with different daily, monthly, and annual changes [9] Main Commodity Trends - Presented are the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc [10] Stock Market Risk Preference - Analyzed is the stock market risk preference through indicators such as the risk premium of the Wande All A (excluding finance, petroleum and petrochemicals), Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% at $3,694.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.15% at $41.99 per ounce. The shift in major central banks' monetary policies may weaken the US dollar and support the precious metal market [3][43]. - International oil prices fell slightly, with the US crude oil main contract down 0.85% at $63.97 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract down 0.82% at $67.91 per barrel. The oil market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors [3][43]. - Most London base metals declined, while LME nickel rose 0.11% to $15,445 per ton. Loose monetary policy expectations may support base metals priced in US dollars [3][44]. - Domestic futures contracts mostly declined, with short - fiber rising over 1%, and 20 - number rubber falling over 2% [4]. 2. Important News Macro News - Hong Kong will cooperate with exchanges in the Greater Bay Area to develop new businesses such as commodity trading and carbon trading [7]. - As of the end of July, the balance of national housing consumer loans (excluding personal housing loans) was 21.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34% [7]. - The EU and Indonesia have completed trade agreement negotiations [8]. - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, restarting the rate - cut process [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE decreased to a record low [12]. - The inventory at Port A in China increased, with different trends in East and South China [12]. - US crude oil exports increased, production decreased, and commercial crude oil inventory decreased [12]. Metal Futures - The复产 expectation of a mining company in Guinea is strengthening [14]. - China's domestic polysilicon effective production capacity is expected to decline [14]. - China's lead and zinc production in August showed year - on - year growth [14]. - Deutsche Bank raised its price forecasts for gold and silver in 2026 [16]. - A mining union in Guinea has issued a strike notice [16]. - China's alumina and electrolytic aluminum production data for August were released [16]. - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate, refined nickel, zinc, lead, and tin was reported [17]. Black - series Futures - The online auction of coking coal in Lvliang market showed mixed results [19]. - China's steel, pig iron, and steel product production data for August were released [21]. - Tangshan requires steel and coking enterprises to implement emission reduction measures [21]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange is soliciting opinions on coking coal futures option contracts [22]. - Representatives of the steel industry in Jiangsu discussed measures to address industry challenges [22]. Agricultural Futures - A meeting on regulating pig production capacity was held, aiming to control the number of sows and adjust pig supply [24]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from September 1 - 15 decreased compared to the previous month [25][27]. - The 2025/26 sugar - making season in China officially started [26]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 15 decreased compared to the previous month [26]. - Brazil's sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the second half of August showed year - on - year growth [27]. - Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volume forecasts for September 14 - 20 were released [27]. 3. Financial Market Finance - A - shares fluctuated upward, with the auto - parts sector leading the rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95% [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related technology indexes reached new highs. Southbound funds had significant net purchases [31]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting the expansion of the fifth listing standard [31]. - Mindray Medical is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO [32]. Industry - The government calls on leading enterprises to tackle key technologies in the field of network security [33]. - A meeting on pig production capacity regulation was held to adjust next year's pig supply [35]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting opinions on intelligent connected vehicle standards [35]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a development roadmap for new energy storage technology [35]. - Huawei released a report on future technological trends [35]. - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization [36]. Overseas - US new - home starts and building permits decreased in August [37]. - The US mortgage rate decreased, promoting related activities [39]. - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates for the first time since March [39]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged [40]. - Japan's exports and imports decreased in August [40]. - The UK's CPI remained high in August, and the central bank may keep interest rates unchanged [40]. International Stock Markets - US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow rising 0.57%, the S&P 500 falling 0.1%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.33% [41]. Commodities - Hong Kong plans to take measures to establish an international gold trading market [43]. Bonds - Yields of major Chinese interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [45]. - Hong Kong is promoting the development of bond - related business [45]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank completed a treasury cash deposit operation [47]. - The floating - rate bond market has expanded rapidly this year [47]. - US Treasury yields rose [47]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index also rose [48]. 4. Upcoming Events - There are multiple important events scheduled for September 18, including central bank operations, press conferences, and corporate product launches [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the significant inventory build - up at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will limit the upside potential of the market [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the specific situation of mine resumption is unclear, which may cap the upside [10][11]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. In the short - term, the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil, and the price will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt are both increasing. As the futures price has fallen to the lower end of the trading range, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - It is expected that PP will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [15][16]. - It is expected that plastic will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [17]. - The upside potential of PVC is limited in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the recent increase in demand can be sustained [18][19]. - Coking coal remains in a relatively strong trend at present [20]. - The urea market is building a bottom, with a chance of a rebound later. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks drivers [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 17, most domestic futures main contracts declined. The container shipping European line dropped nearly 7%, rapeseed meal and polysilicon fell more than 2%, and alumina, silver futures, and soybeans No. 2 dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, SC crude oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:22 on September 17, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, crude oil 2511, alumina 2601, and ten - year treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital outflows [7]. Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The production of electrolytic copper in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in September will decline, and smelters have maintenance plans. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has started to build up [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high today. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The supply from lithium mica raw materials decreased, and lithium spodumene became the main raw material. The demand is expected to increase during the peak season, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [10][11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak. The overall oil product inventory in the US continues to increase, and OPEC+ will adjust production. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken in the medium - to - long - term, and it will fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased slightly. The cost support is limited, and the supply and demand are both increasing [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded but is at a relatively low level. The enterprise operating rate has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has risen. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [15][16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has declined slightly. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for agricultural films is expected to increase. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [17]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years. The export outlook has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The upside potential is limited [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low today but turned positive at the end. The spot price in the Shanxi market was stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The production and imports have increased, and the inventory is gradually shifting to the end - users. The demand has increased, and it remains in a strong trend [20]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The daily production is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory. The market is building a bottom, and there is a chance of a rebound [21][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index continues to weaken. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the recent significant inventory accumulation on the SHFE will limit the upside space of the market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower throughout the day. As of September 12, the domestic spot smelting fee (TC) was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was -4.16 cents per pound, with TC/RC fees remaining weakly stable. Factory seasonal maintenance in September and October will lead to reduced production, and small and medium - sized smelters are facing profit pressure, so the supply of refined copper remains tight. In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans in September, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply. Although prices have been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved. The realization of the peak - season expectations remains to be seen. The SHFE copper inventory has slightly increased, with an increase of 6,633 tons from last week. Increased imports and high prices have suppressed copper demand, and the inventory accumulation trend has gradually begun [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower throughout the day, closing at 80,560 yuan per ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China it was 40 yuan per ton. On September 16, 2025, the LME official price was 10,144 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was -72.5 dollars per ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of September 12, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.16 cents per pound [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 33,300 tons, a decrease of 401 tons from the previous period. As of September 15, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 149,800 tons, a decrease of 1,675 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 312,900 short tons, an increase of 1,021 short tons from the previous period [11].

持续弱势 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 17 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内偏弱震荡，现货收单热情不及昨日，价格小涨后成交不 畅，行情稳定为主。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂成交价格范围多 在 1600-1630 元/吨，河北部分工厂报价 1680-1690 元/吨，但高报价工厂主要执 行出口集港订单。尿素日产维持在 19 万吨左右进行，一方面山西尿素装置技改， 另一方面阅兵检修减产，前期产量有下滑，但随着装置复产及产能的投放，日产 依然预计偏高位运行，压制尿素价格。需求端，价格跌至低位后，下游拿货情绪 转好。复合肥工厂开工率偏低主要一方面终端需求疲软，前期备货已近 78 成， 另一方面厂内成品库存高企。虽然目前工厂利润尚且可观，但企业依然以库存去 化为重点，后续高位开工的几率不大。本期库存依然表现为增加，且目前库存高 企，大幅高于往年同期，制约尿素价格上行。整体来说，盘面筑底中，后续有反 弹机会，上方关注 1730 元/吨附近压力，但宽松格局尚未逆转，市场缺乏驱动。 【期现行情】 【冠通研究】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1685 元/吨开盘，低开低走，日内偏弱震荡， 最终收于 16 ...

早盘速递 2025/9/17 热点资讯 1. 周一，美国一家上诉法院拒绝了美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克的请求，这是自1913年美联储成立以来， 总统首次尝试采取此类行动。哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院的裁决意味着，美联储在当地时间周二和周三的议息会议期间， 库克暂时可以继续留在美联储。 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.61% 贵金属, 30.39% 油脂油料, 10.93% 有色 软商品, 2.27% , 20.67% 煤焦钢矿, 14.67% 能源, 2.93% 化工, 11.46% 谷物, 1.03% 农副产品, 3.05% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 第 1 页，共 3 页 重点关注 铁矿石、螺纹、菜油、豆二、沪金 夜盘表现 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 板块表现 类 ...

Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.23% to $3727.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 0.19% to $42.88 per ounce. Factors such as a weaker dollar, rising expectations of a Fed rate cut, geopolitical risks, and industrial demand support precious metal prices, but some contracts declined due to policy uncertainty [3]. - International oil prices rose strongly. The U.S. crude oil main contract rose 1.97% to $64.55 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.59% to $68.51 per barrel. Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have raised supply concerns, and a larger - than - expected decrease in U.S. API crude oil inventories further supported oil prices [3]. - Most London base metals closed higher. LME nickel rose 0.06% to $15445 per ton, LME aluminum rose 0.43% to $2712 per ton, and LME tin rose 0.32% to $34750 per ton. LME copper fell 0.68% to $10117 per ton. LME nickel inventories reached a four - year high [3]. - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%, while iron ore, hot - rolled coils, rebar, and soybeans No. 2 declined slightly [4]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - A U.S. appeals court rejected President Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Cook can temporarily remain at the Fed during the upcoming FOMC meetings [7]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman had no information on whether Chinese and U.S. leaders will talk this week [7]. - Nine Chinese government departments issued policies to expand service consumption, including measures to improve service quality and benefit the public [7]. - The U.S. Commerce Department will consider requests to impose tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [8]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Since September, most deep - processing orders in major regions in China have not improved significantly, with most orders being scattered. Some medium - and large - sized enterprises can still arrange production for 20 - 60 days for engineering projects [10]. - OPEC+ representatives will meet in Vienna to discuss updating member production capacity estimates [12]. - Russian oil producers may have to cut production due to Ukrainian drone attacks on key Russian export ports and refineries [12]. Metal Futures - Chile expects copper production to increase this year despite setbacks at two major copper mines, and production is expected to reach a record high by 2027 [13]. - Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum and Electricity Co., Ltd. plans to replace its existing electrolytic aluminum production capacity [13]. - LME nickel inventories reached a four - year high on September 16, with significant increases in recent periods [13]. - Glencore will meet with the South African government to discuss avoiding layoffs at a smelter [14]. - Spot gold reached a new high, supported by dollar weakness and expectations of a Fed rate cut [15]. Black - Series Futures - From September 8 - 14, 2025, iron ore inventories at seven major Australian and Brazilian ports increased slightly, while Chinese 47 - port imported iron ore inventories decreased [18]. - Jinyie Steel Group resumed production after maintenance, increasing daily hot - metal output [19]. - Tangshan's coke and steel enterprises started environmental - protection - related production restrictions on September 16 [19]. - A coal mine in Linfen, Hongtong stopped production on September 16, affecting about 140,000 tons of coal output [19]. - Thirteen coal - washing enterprises in Wuhai are required to complete rectifications by the end of the month [19]. - As of September 16, the operating rate and capacity utilization of 50 major electric - arc - furnace steel mills in China decreased [20]. Agricultural Futures - China's soybean crushing volume is expected to be around 2.4 million tons this week, with slow inventory accumulation of soybean meal [23]. - China's use of agricultural fertilizers and pesticides decreased in 2024 compared to 2020 [23]. - As of September 15, cotton inventories in Zhangjiagang Bonded Area decreased year - on - year [23]. - Edible oil prices, including palm oil, are expected to remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply - demand imbalances [24]. - China's domestic oil - mill average operating rate increased in the 37th week [24]. - China will conduct a central reserve frozen pork auction on September 18 [25]. - As of September 16, China's soybean oil port inventories increased slightly [26]. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production and 2025 export volume forecasts remain unchanged, while the 2025 soybean crushing volume forecast is raised [28]. - As of September 14, EU 2025/26 soybean and corn imports decreased compared to last year [29]. - The U.S. EPA proposed re - allocating biofuel blending obligations [29]. - Brazil's September soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volume forecasts are raised [29]. Financial Market Financial - China's A - share market closed higher, with robot concept stocks leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.68% [31]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.03%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.56%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off, but Alibaba had a net buy - in [31]. - Chery Automobile will start its IPO book - building today, targeting a valuation of HK$140 billion [33]. - Benyuan Quantum filed for IPO guidance [33]. - Micro - Nano Star, a satellite manufacturing unicorn, started its IPO process [34]. Industry - A UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area started construction, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan and over 150 billion yuan for the supporting power base [34]. - Guangdong Province issued an action plan to empower the toy industry with AI, aiming for a scale - above - designated - size toy industry revenue of 100 billion yuan and an AI toy penetration rate of over 30% by 2027 [34]. - Suzhou released an "AI +" city action plan, aiming to gather over 3000 AI enterprises and achieve an average annual growth of over 20% in the intelligent economy core scale by the end of 2026 [35]. - China Real Estate Association's direct - sales platform for commercial housing was launched [36]. - The world's first AI Agent trading market, MuleRun, was launched [37]. Overseas - The U.S. Senate approved Milan's nomination as a Fed governor, and Trump signed the appointment [39]. - A U.S. appeals court allowed Fed Governor Cook to stay, and the Trump administration will appeal [39]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary said the Fed has been lagging, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point rate cut by the end of the year [39]. - The U.S. will consider expanding tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts [39]. - The U.S. government is discussing setting up a $5 - billion mining investment fund and expanding strategic uranium reserves [39]. - A U.S. House Republican temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown lacks Democratic - demanded healthcare policies [40]. - U.S. retail sales rose in August, which may affect the Fed's rate - cut decision [42]. - U.S. manufacturing output rose in August, better than expected [43]. - Canada's CPI and new - home starts data in August were lower than expected, and the market is pricing in a Bank of Canada rate cut [43]. International Stock Markets - U.S. major stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow down 0.27%, the S&P 500 down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq down 0.07%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose [44]. - European major stock indices closed lower due to multiple factors, including Fed policy uncertainty and France's credit - rating issues [44]. - The U.S. SEC is considering Trump's proposal to reduce the frequency of corporate earnings reports [44]. - Japanese and South Korean stock markets continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI reaching new highs [45]. Commodity - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold rising and COMEX silver falling [47]. - International oil prices rose strongly due to supply concerns and inventory data [47]. - Most London base metals closed higher, with LME nickel inventories reaching a four - year high [47]. - OPEC+ will discuss production capacity at this week's meeting [48]. Bond - Yields of major Chinese inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [49]. - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board [50][51]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up [52]. - The U.S. dollar index fell, and most non - U.S. currencies rose [52]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Key economic data to be released include New Zealand's Q2 current account, Japan's August trade balance, UK's August CPI, etc. [54] Events - There are multiple central - bank meetings, including the Fed, Bank of Canada, and Indonesia's central bank. There are also various press conferences and industry events [56]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 16, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Coking coal rose nearly 6%, coke rose over 4%, glass and soda ash rose over 3%, and alumina and rapeseed oil rose nearly 2%. On the downside, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell over 1%, and red dates and eggs fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.24%, IH fell 0.36%, IC rose 0.58%, and IM rose 1.02%. Among treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.04%, TF rose 0.13%, T rose 0.15%, and TL remained flat [5]. - As of 15:17 on September 16, in terms of capital flow, coking coal 2601 saw an inflow of 1.163 billion yuan, rapeseed oil 2601 had an inflow of 1.008 billion yuan, and thirty - year treasury bond 2512 had an inflow of 462 million yuan. Outflows were seen in CSI 300 2509 (2.448 billion yuan), SSE 50 2509 (1.23 billion yuan), and Shanghai copper 2510 (1.146 billion yuan) [7]. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The market is trading on the Fed's rate - cut amplitude, and the US dollar index is weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decline significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and smelter maintenance, supporting copper prices. The demand side is in the expectation of the peak season, and downstream purchasing has improved. Copper prices are likely to rise [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade is 70,600 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend. Supply is affected by the proportion of lithium mica raw materials and mine复产. Demand is boosted by the new energy vehicle policy and the peak season. In the short term, prices are strong, but the upside may be limited by mine复产 [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The seasonal travel peak is ending. US oil inventories are increasing, and OPEC + is accelerating production increases. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies. In the short term, the market may focus on sanctions against Russian oil, and geopolitical risks are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is increasing with rising production and开工 rates. Demand is affected by weather, funds, and other factors. With limited cost support, it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [14]. - **PP**: Downstream开工 rates are rising, and new production capacity has been put into operation. With cost support and the approaching peak season, it is expected to fluctuate with limited downside [15][16]. - **Plastic**:开工 rates are at a neutral level, and downstream demand is increasing with the peak season for agricultural films. With cost support and the influence of policies, it is expected to fluctuate with limited downside [17]. - **PVC**: Supply is increasing with rising开工 rates and new production capacity. Export expectations are weakening, and inventory pressure is high. The upside space is limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sustainability of demand [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are stable or rising. Production and imports are increasing, but inventories are decreasing. Demand is rising with steel mill复产. Prices are rising, but there may be short - term corrections [20]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating. Production is recovering, and demand is improving marginally. However, high inventory restricts price increases. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. The demand side is currently in the expectation of the peak season, and the downstream purchasing situation has improved. Therefore, copper prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - From September 14th to 15th, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain. As of September 12th, China's spot TC was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and RC was -4.16 cents per pound, remaining weakly stable. Factory seasonal maintenance plans in September and October will lead to production reduction, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper remains tight. In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% month - on - month decrease and a 15.59% year - on - year increase. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and smelters have maintenance plans in September, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has slightly increased, imports have risen, and high prices have curbed copper demand, starting a inventory - building trend [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, with a strong and volatile trend, closing at 80,880 yuan per ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan per ton, and in South China was 40 yuan per ton. On September 15, 2025, the LME official price was 10,073 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 87 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of September 12th, the latest data showed that the spot TC was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.16 cents per pound. In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory was 33,700 tons, an increase of 3,049 tons from the previous period. As of September 15th, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 311,800 short tons, an increase of 1,360 short tons from the previous period [7][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is "shock upward" [1] Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a shock upward trend, but the upward space is limited. The supply side is under pressure due to increased production capacity and high inventory, while the demand side is weak due to the slow recovery of the real estate market [1] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - It is recommended to close short positions. The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.81 percentage points to 79.94%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years, with cautious procurement. India has postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. The export tax of Chinese PVC to India has increased, reducing the export expectation in the second half of the year. However, export orders have increased after the recent price decline. The social inventory has continued to increase and is still high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The chloro - alkali comprehensive profit is positive, and the PVC operating rate has increased this week. New production capacities have been put into operation or are in the process of commissioning. The anti - involution sentiment has resurfaced, but there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry. The PVC basis is low, and the upward space is limited. The PVC demand increased significantly last week, and its sustainability needs attention [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract has increased in price with reduced positions, closing at 4960 yuan/ton, up 1.27%, and the position has decreased by 61,765 lots to 1,138,709 lots [2] Basis - On September 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China has risen to 4725 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract is 4960 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 235 yuan/ton, weakening by 12 yuan/ton, which is at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: The production of some devices such as Baotou Haiping and Inner Mongolia Junzheng has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.81 percentage points to 79.94%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, and Gansu Yaowang have been put into production or are in the process of commissioning [4] - **Demand Side**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to August 2025, the national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of commercial housing have all decreased to varying degrees. As of the week of September 14, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has decreased by 1.79% week - on - week, remaining at a low level in recent years. The impact of real estate favorable policies on sales needs attention [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 11, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.75% week - on - week to 934,200 tons, an increase of 8.63% compared to the same period last year. The social inventory has continued to increase and is still high [6]