【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续反弹 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 1 月 23 日受亏损扩大影响，部分中小企业生产积极性下降， 独立焦企焦炭库存回落 0.36 万吨至库存 81.45 万吨，焦炭综合库存增加 15.14 万吨至 1012.35 万吨，同比降幅接近 4%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利-66 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利-51 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利-8 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-103 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利-11 元/吨。 下游需求，终端需求维持淡季特征，钢厂利润虽有小幅回升，但供应端整体 复产积极性依然有限。本周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率减少 0.16 个百分点至 78.68%， 同比去年增加 0.7 个百分点，盈利率环比上周增加 0.86 个百分点至 40.69%，高 炉炼铁产能利用率微幅回升至85.51%，日均铁水产量环比微增0.09万吨至228.1 万吨，同比去年增加 2.65 万吨。 上游焦煤，本周煤矿炼焦煤库存小幅回升，独立焦企炼焦煤总库存 1177.71 万吨，钢厂炼焦煤库存增加至 803.24 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月29日 【行情分析】 1月29日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月 23日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近年同期中性水 平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位 水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴 油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万 吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有 下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞， 农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限， 终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，塑料短期 跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，塑料反弹可持续 性谨慎 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of hot-rolled coils has slightly increased, and the demand is stable and resilient. The overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter storage is an important support for current demand. The social inventory of the total inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has been marginally improved. In summary, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support the price. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the strength of demand recovery. Currently, the macro-loose expectation supports the price. Today, it has re-stepped on the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, maintaining a generally bullish outlook [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Thursday, the trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract was 434,547 lots, an increase from the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,277 yuan, and the high was 3,313 yuan. It increased in price with increased positions during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly crossed above the 5-day and 30-day moving averages in the short term, closing at 3,308 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.79% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -28 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills are still maintaining a high production pace before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4] - **Demand**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons month-on-month to 3.1141 million tons. This week's apparent consumption slightly increased and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons week-on-week to 3.5558 million tons (social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, while steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in a destocking phase [4] - **Policy**: A new regulation on the export license management of steel products has been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In 2026, in - depth rectification of involution - style competition was listed as a key task, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3.3 Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Expectation of the start of winter storage demand, rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The resumption of production by steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to geopolitical situations and cold weather, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026 [1] - In the off - season of crude oil demand, affected by winter storms, EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories increased slightly, and the overall oil product inventory decreased [1] - U.S. oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day of production last weekend due to winter storms, about 15% of the national production [1] - The International Monetary Fund recently raised the 2026 world economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns [1] - Global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The EIA's latest January monthly report raised the 2026 crude oil supply - surplus margin [1] - Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [1] - The U.S. Treasury announced a new round of sanctions on Iran on the 23rd, and there is a possibility of military action. The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East, and Iranian armed forces are on full alert. Iranian geopolitical risks are rising [1] - Zelensky said that the talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia in the UAE were constructive. The U.S. trade representative said that India needs to do more to eliminate U.S. concerns about its purchase of Russian oil and obtain tariff exemptions [1] - The Kazakhstan Energy Ministry said that the safety restart of the Tengiz oil field's power supply system has been confirmed, and the CPC No. 3 offshore mooring terminal's maintenance is completed, but the operator said that only half of the field's production capacity can be restored before February 7 [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 3.69% to 472.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 461.1 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 145 to 48,382 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of January 28, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.848 million barrels), 2.94% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.009 million barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels (expected to decrease by 583,000 barrels); heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels (expected to increase by 279,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that its November 2025 crude oil production was lowered by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its December 2025 production increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, and is near the historical high [4] - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased [4] - Gasoline weekly production increased by 11.78% month - on - month to 8.757 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year [4] - Diesel weekly production increased by 15.47% month - on - month to 4.069 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year [4] - The week - on - week increase in gasoline and diesel production drove the week - on - week increase of the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products by 2.49% [4]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious bullish view on pure benzene and styrene but warns of potential pullback risks [4] Core Viewpoints - The aromatic hydrocarbon market continues its strong trend, but investors should be wary of pullback risks due to high price increases and potential future plant restarts [1][4] Content Summary by Section Fundamental Analysis - As of the week ending January 22, China's styrene plant output was 349,300 tons, a 1.72% decrease from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 69.63%, down 1.23%. Overall production declined due to an unexpected shutdown in North China, a slight increase in Northeast China, and a decrease in South China [1] - For EPS, as of January 22, the capacity utilization rate was 58.71%, up 4.66%. Amid the off - season for downstream demand, the trading atmosphere was poor [1] - For PS, the capacity utilization rate was 57.3%, down 0.1%. Although some plants resumed or restarted, others reduced production lines. Supply was temporarily stable, but inventory increased as sales were average [1] - For ABS, the capacity utilization rate was 66.8%, down 3%. Supply remained tight, and prices rebounded after the holiday with increased inquiries and trading volume. UPR capacity utilization rate was 38%, down 1%, and butadiene - styrene rubber开工 was 82.92%, unchanged [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Fed kept interest rates in the 3.5 - 3.75% range in January. Some members supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell said the policy would depend on data and suggested that successors stay away from politics [3] - The EIA gasoline inventory in the US for the week ending January 23 recorded the largest decline since November 7, 2025, and it was the 11th consecutive week of increase. Domestic crude oil production was at its lowest since October 31, 2025 [3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene and styrene continued to strengthen. The supply - demand situation of pure benzene improved marginally, and port inventory started to decline. A cautious bullish view is maintained, with opportunities for low - buying after pullbacks. However, due to high price increases and potential future plant restarts, pullback risks should be watched [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：商品普涨，注意压力 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 棉花：市场有下游纺织厂节前补库支撑，现货走货较为顺畅，但是纺织厂补 库已渐近尾声，后续的需求支撑力度还需考量。从震荡重心上移的表现看，产业 较为看好后续走势，对节后消费提振存在预期。1 月 28 日，配额内（关税 1%） 中等质量进口棉完税成本 12502 元/吨，比国产标准级棉花价格低 3451 元/吨, 较上周扩大 146 元/吨；滑准税进口棉完税成本 13671 元/吨，比国产棉价格低 2282 元/吨，较上周扩大 147 元/吨。国内棉价上涨，内外价差有所扩大。关注 上方一万五关口压力，短期仍然高位调整看待。 白糖：巴西中南部近期气候干旱或影响 2026/27 榨季甘蔗产量预估，受此提 振，ICE 原糖期价盘中短暂向上突破 15 美分/磅整数关口，而在北半球主产国恢 复性增产背景影响下，期价随后小幅回落。 经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3983 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完 税估算成本为 5059 元/吨；与日照白糖现货价比，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算利 润为 1417 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1] Core View - The glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price may run with a slight upward trend in oscillations. However, there is a possibility of continued downward pressure after the sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and the cold - repair situation of production lines [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract oscillated and was slightly bullish during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing trumpet shape, and the daily - line MA combination formed a golden cross, indicating a short - term slightly bullish signal. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average on the daily line, and the support was near the middle track of the Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 217,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,924 lots. The intraday high was 1088, the low was 1060, and the closing price was 1087, up 19 yuan/ton or 1.78% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The overall price of the float glass market moved up, but the operations of enterprises in different regions varied. Some enterprises with low inventory raised prices to test the market, while some enterprises made prices negotiable to promote sales. However, downstream operations remained cautious [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 67 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, flat compared with the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% compared with the previous week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat compared with the previous week (data has been revised since August 31, 2025). One glass production line was restarted and ignited this week, but no glass has been produced yet [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% compared with the previous week and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand of most enterprises from north to south is gradually coming to an end [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the domestic float glass export was 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% compared with the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, up 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, up 3.9 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, down 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans for cold - repair of some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to further shrink. However, the real - estate development investment and the availability of funds in the real - estate industry have continued to decline year - on - year this month, and the completion and new construction are weak, so the real - estate demand has not improved. In general, the anti - involution and the withdrawal of the three - red - line policy for real - estate enterprises provide short - term emotional support to the market, leading to a rebound in the futures price. But the glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current resumption of production on the supply side of rebar continues, and the demand side is supported by pre - holiday winter stockpiling and shows resilience. The total inventory and social inventory are at a low level year - on - year, and the overall inventory pressure is controllable. The low inventory and resilient demand support the price. The output increased slightly this week, and the raw material end has strengthened again to support the price. Currently, the macro - expectation of the policy end is loose and positive, providing certain support. The moving average shows that it has re - stood on the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, showing a strong trend. Maintain a bullish view [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract increased its positions by 40,973 lots on Thursday, with trading volume increasing compared to the previous trading day, reaching 1,026,450 lots. From the perspective of the moving average, it broke through the short - term 5 - day moving average and the medium - term 30 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,159 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.12% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 93 yuan/ton to the spot price. The basis was still large, providing certain support. Winter stockpiling in the futures market had a certain cost - performance [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of January 29, the rebar output increased by 0.28 tons week - on - week to 1.9983 million tons, and increased by 221,600 tons year - on - year. The output rebounded slightly this week and increased significantly compared to the same period last year, reflecting that the steel mills' production resumption momentum accelerated, suppressing the price in the short term. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether the capacity recovery can be sustained [2] - Demand side: The apparent demand decreased week - on - week (in line with the seasonal law of construction site shutdown before the Spring Festival) but increased significantly year - on - year, indicating that the demand recovered year - on - year. As of the week of January 29, the apparent demand data was 1.764 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 91,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 978,500 tons. The overall demand increased significantly compared to last year, showing resilience. There was still support from winter stockpiling demand before the festival [2] - Inventory side: The total inventory increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, and the overall inventory was at a low level. As of the week of January 29, the total inventory was 4.7553 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 234,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.776 million tons. The social inventory was 3.264 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2388 million tons. The factory inventory was 1.4913 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 150 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 537,200 tons. The inventory pressure of manufacturers was significantly relieved year - on - year, and the social inventory pressure decreased year - on - year, providing support for the price [2][3] Macroeconomic situation - The central bank released a moderately loose signal, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized that the expenditure intensity would only increase. However, due to the drag of real estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited macro - economically. The loose cycle provided certain support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory is at a low level in the past three years, the supply side has reduced production due to anti - involution, the production capacity is strictly controlled, the policy supports the demand, the demand will recover marginally after the Spring Festival, and the macro - expectation is loose [4] - Bearish factors: The inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival exceeds expectations, the inventory removal speed slows down, the blast furnace production resumption accelerates, the winter stockpiling demand is cautious, the real estate demand continues to decline, the export is restricted, and the economic recovery is weak [4]

铁矿日报：商品市场情绪有所转暖，盘面仍显坚韧 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内延续震荡偏强，收于 798.5 元/ 吨，较前一个交易日收盘价上涨+15.5 元/吨，涨幅+1.98%，成交 30.8 万手， 持仓量 55.5 万手，沉淀资金 97.58 亿。期货盘面在预判支撑 780 附近短期形成 一定止跌，近期或延续震荡偏强，低多思路对待。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 797 涨+7，超特粉 680 涨 +7，掉期主力 104.75(+1.7)美元/吨。现货、掉期价格再度走强上涨。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 832.4 元/吨，基差 33.9 元/吨， 基差有所收窄；铁矿 5-9 价差 19.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 13.5 元，铁矿期货合约 呈现 back 结构+正基差，期货盘面仍以震荡偏强思路对待。 二、基本面梳理 【冠通期货研究报告】 四、观点总结 综合来看，铁矿基本面上，到港减量，供应压力有所减缓，需求端刚需偏 稳，港口虽仍在累库，但逐步向下游钢厂转移；基本面矛盾不突出，但期货合 约呈现 ba ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，累库主要表现在华 东地区，周期内外轮显性卸货 19.14 万吨，全部卸入华东。周内江苏沿江主流库 区提货减弱，浙江有烯烃重启，但总体在外轮供应补充下库存积累。华南地区周 内广东仅少量内贸补充，但主流库区提货减弱，因无外轮补充供应，因此库存去 库；福建地区周内无卸货，库存同步去库。。 【宏观面分析】 美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支 持降息 25BP；鲍威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据 说话。鲍威尔还表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政策，建议继任 者远离政治。 美国至 1 月 23 日当周 EIA 汽油库 ...