Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC industry has significant fundamental pressure, with a low basis. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate downward, and the recommended strategy is to sell short at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has slightly increased in some regions. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has slightly increased but is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its September quotation by $10 - 30 per ton. Recent export orders are average. On August 14, India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with an increase of about $50 per ton for the Chinese mainland. The export outlook for Chinese PVC in the second half of the year is weakening [1]. - Social inventory has continued to increase and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. From January to July 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate increased last week and remains high. New production capacities are coming on stream, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production in September after trial production in August, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year and Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production lines planned for trial runs in September [1]. - The support from calcium carbide prices is still weak, and PVC faces significant pressure before the demand is substantially improved. There are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological innovation. The macro - policy of anti - involution and elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry will affect the subsequent market [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,838 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,888 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.80%. The position volume decreased by 23,861 lots to 1,242,667 lots [2]. Basis - On September 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4,680 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,857 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 208 yuan/ton, weakening by 31 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, maintenance devices such as Gansu Yinguang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics have resumed production. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities are coming on stream as mentioned above [5]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to July 2025, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. The commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; the residential sales area decreased by 4.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 495.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 6.2%. The new construction area of houses was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%; the new construction area of residential houses was 258.81 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The completion area of houses was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%; the completion area of residential houses was 180.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. The overall improvement of the real estate market still takes time [6]. - As of the week of September 7, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 30.28% week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [6]. - As of the week of September 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons, an increase of 3.73% compared to the same period last year. Social inventory has continued to increase and remains high [6].

早盘速递 2025/9/11 5、期货日报记者求证获悉，宁德时代控股子公司宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司召开会议，给公司内部的办证小组下达了任务目 标，争取能够在今年11月完成枧下窝的复产工作。但能否如期达成复产目标，尚未有定论，后续或根据实际推进情况进行灵活 调整。 重点关注 尿素、沪铜、焦煤、原油、塑料 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.77% 贵金属, 30.15% 油脂油料, 10.87% 有色 软商品, 2.40% , 20.43% 煤焦钢矿, 14.41% 能源, 2.90% 化工, 12.05% 谷物, 1.07% 农副产品, 2.95% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 ( ...

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of September 11th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal, industrial silicon, and red dates rose over 2%, while polysilicon, coke, pulp, apples, lithium carbonate, and soda ash rose over 1%. The container shipping index (European line) dropped over 5%, and 20 - rubber and iron ore fell nearly 1% [6]. - Stock index futures generally rose, with the CSI 300 futures (IF) up 2.64%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) up 1.56%, the CSI 500 futures (IC) up 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) up 2.94%. Treasury bond futures also had mixed results, with the 2 - year (TS) up 0.06%, the 5 - year (TF) up 0.14%, the 10 - year (T) up 0.07%, and the 30 - year (TL) down 0.11% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:30 on September 11th, the CSI 300 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital inflows of 1.584 billion, 1.533 billion, and 0.68 billion respectively. Meanwhile, the Shanghai gold 2510, CSI 1000 2509, and Shanghai silver 2510 had outflows of 1.252 billion, 0.605 billion, and 0.376 billion respectively [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - The US August PPI was lower than expected. China's copper ore imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year in August. Refining fees are falling, and 5 smelters plan to have maintenance in September, which may lead to a decline in domestic electrolytic copper production. Imported copper will affect the domestic market. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9]. Crude Oil - The seasonal travel peak is over, and US oil inventories are increasing. OPEC + will adjust production in October, which may increase pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut prices. The market should watch the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and India's oil purchases. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - to - long - term and close short positions in the short - term [10][11]. Asphalt - Supply is decreasing, and demand is also weak due to factors like weather and capital. OPEC +'s planned production increase will weaken cost support. It is recommended to close short positions and expect a sideways movement [12][13]. PP - Downstream开工率 is rising, and new capacity has been put into operation. With the improvement of the weather, the downstream is entering the peak season. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [14]. Plastic - The开工率 is stable, and downstream demand, especially in the agricultural film sector, is increasing. New capacity has been added. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [15][16]. PVC - Supply is increasing, and downstream demand is still weak. Exports are expected to decline. Inventory is high, and the real estate market is still adjusting. The market is expected to decline with volatility [17]. Urea - The market is weak with high inventory and low demand. However, the price is at a low level, and there may be a technical rebound [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current urea futures price is at a low level and remains weak due to high market inventories and low downstream sentiment, but there is an oversold situation, and the market is bottoming out, with a technical rebound expected later [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened lower and moved higher today, with pressure during the session. Market trading volume was low, downstream buyers purchased small quantities at low prices, and upstream factory quotes mostly declined. The ex - factory price range of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1600 - 1660 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continued to decline slightly [1][6]. - On the supply side, the daily output was about 180,000 tons. Recently, there were both restarts and overhauls. Jiujiang Xinlianxin's second - phase products are expected to be produced on the 15th. Inventories are high, and market supplies are abundant [1]. - On the demand side, due to the "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality of downstream markets, there were sporadic low - price purchases. After the military parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, with an operating rate of 37.82% this week, a 4.74 - percentage - point increase from last week. Although the operating rate rebounded, the finished - product inventories in factories continued to decline, and the finished fertilizers continued to be transferred to the end - users. However, the inventories in compound fertilizer factories and urea factories are both at high levels in recent years, and most of the downstream stocking has been completed, so the subsequent demand boost is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1669 yuan/ton, opened lower and moved higher, and was under pressure during the session, finally closing at 1671 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume was 292,643 lots (+9,294 lots). Among the top 20 main positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 3,284 lots, and short positions increased by 6,331 lots. For example, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of - 577 lots, Huishang Futures had a net long position of - 3,003 lots, Yide Futures had a net short position of - 1,330 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +701 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The market trading volume was low, downstream buyers purchased small quantities at low prices, and upstream factory quotes mostly declined. The ex - factory price range of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1600 - 1660 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continued to decline slightly [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 11, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,897, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes declined, and the futures closing price also declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 11 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) [10]. - **Supply Data**: According to Feiyitong data, on September 11, 2025, the national daily urea output was 186,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 78.76% [11]. - **Downstream Data**: From September 5th to September 11th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.82%, a 4.74 - percentage - point increase from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.38%, a 3.6 - percentage - point decrease from last week [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight market trends across various sectors, including energy, agriculture, metals, and financial markets. It also covers important macro - economic news, industry - specific developments, and upcoming events and data releases. Summary by Sections Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: US crude oil and Brent crude oil rose by 1.79% and 1.78% respectively. Domestic crude oil futures rose 0.82% to 490.1 yuan/barrel. Low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell over 1% [3][4][5] - **Agricultural Futures**: CBOT agricultural futures closed lower, with soybean down 0.61%, corn down 0.66%, and wheat down 1.01% [3] - **Metal Futures**: LME base metals mostly rose, while domestic base metals had mixed results. Gold and silver futures in China also edged up [3][4][5] Important News Macro News - China maintains an objective and fair stance on the Ukraine crisis. The National Development and Reform Commission aims to manage over - capacity in key industries. A US judge blocked Trump from removing Fed governor Cook [7] - In August 2025, China's CPI fell 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI fell 2.9% year - on - year with a narrowing decline. The US Senate Committee supported Trump's nominee for Fed governor. US PPI unexpectedly dropped in August [7][10] Energy Futures - Domestic butadiene rubber inventory increased by 8.15% week - on - week. UAE's Fujeirah port's refined oil inventory rose. China achieved major oil and gas and uranium ore discoveries. EU plans more sanctions on Russia [13][15] - US commercial crude oil and strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased. Russian crude oil exports reached a three - month high [15][16] Metal Futures - Ningde Times' subsidiary aims to resume production at Jiaxiaowo by November. ANZ raised its year - end gold and silver price targets [18] Black - Series Futures - HeSteel's first - round silicon - manganese inquiry price in September was 5800 yuan/ton. A mine earthquake occurred in Heilongjiang. National building materials' production and inventory had mixed changes [21][22] Agricultural Futures - Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 decreased. Malaysia's August palm oil inventory, production, and exports had different trends. A meeting on pig production capacity regulation is planned [24][25][25] - The US is considering a bio - fuel blending plan. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to decline [27] Financial Markets Finance - A - shares rebounded with reduced volume. Hong Kong stocks rose. Some brokers adjusted margin trading limits. A number of public funds held autumn strategy meetings [29][31] - NIO completed a $1 billion equity financing. Zijin Gold International plans an IPO in Hong Kong [31][32] Industry - Six ministries launched a special campaign to rectify the automotive industry's online chaos. China found a large lithium - rich area. A meeting on pig production capacity regulation is planned [33][35] - The auto dealer inventory coefficient decreased in August. The e - commerce logistics index reached a new high [35][36] Overseas - Canada is reviewing tariffs on Chinese products. Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. The US 8 - month PPI decline strengthened the case for a rate cut [37] - The US Supreme Court will review tariff legality. India and the US are working on a trade deal. South Korea will set up a large investment fund [39] International Stocks - US stocks had mixed results. European stocks also had mixed performance. Asian stocks in Japan and South Korea reached new highs [40][42] Commodities - Oil prices rose due to Middle - East tensions. Precious metals had mixed performance. Base metals mostly rose [43] Bonds - China's bond market weakened, and bond funds faced redemption pressure. US bond yields fell [44][46] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose slightly. The US dollar index edged up, and non - US currencies had mixed performance [47] Upcoming Indicators and Events - Upcoming economic indicators include UK house price index, US CPI, and initial jobless claims. Key events involve central bank rate decisions and oil market reports [49][51]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 10, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Industrial silicon, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate and polysilicon dropped over 4%. In the stock index futures market, the CSI 300 and SSE 50 index futures contracts rose, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures contracts declined. In the bond futures market, all contracts fell [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:33 on September 10, funds flowed into the 30 - year treasury bond 2512, rebar 2601, and CSI 300 2509, while funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2510, Shanghai silver 2510, and CSI 1000 2509 [7]. 2. Core Views 2.1 Copper - The US labor data was weak, but considering the low - level inventory in the fundamentals and the expected improvement during the peak season, copper is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 2.2 Crude Oil - In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply - demand situation will weaken. In the short - term, it is advised to partially close out short positions due to the release of negative news and geopolitical risks [11]. 2.3 Asphalt - With weak supply and demand, and the futures price reaching the lower limit of the oscillation range, it is recommended to close out short positions [13]. 2.4 PP - It is expected to oscillate with limited downside space as the downstream enters the peak season, but the impact of policies to solve over - capacity remains to be seen [14]. 2.5 Plastic - It is expected to oscillate with limited downside space as the demand of the agricultural film sector is expected to increase, but the impact of policies to solve over - capacity remains to be seen [15][16]. 2.6 PVC - It is expected to oscillate downward due to high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure, and the impact of policies to solve over - capacity remains to be seen [17]. 2.7 Urea - The market is weak, with high inventory and lackluster demand, and the price is bottoming out [19]. 3. Industry - Specific Analysis 3.1 Copper - The monthly average non - farm employment in the US decreased by 76,000, and the smelting fees and sulfuric acid prices in the copper market are not favorable for smelters. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the import of copper may affect the domestic market. Although it is the off - season, the investment in power grid facilities boosts demand, and there is an expected improvement during the peak season [9]. 3.2 Crude Oil - It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus. OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, and Saudi Aramco has lowered the price. The trade relationship between the US and India may affect the global oil trade flow. The end of the consumption peak season and weak employment data may lead to weak demand [10][11]. 3.3 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate continued to decline last week, but the planned production in September increased. The downstream industry's production rate mostly decreased, and the shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory decreased but remained at a low level. The increase in oil production by OPEC+ and the decline in oil prices weakened the cost support [12][13]. 3.4 PP - The downstream production rate increased slightly, and the enterprise production rate remained stable. The new production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased due to geopolitical risks. The downstream is entering the peak season, but the impact of policies to solve over - capacity remains to be seen [14]. 3.5 Plastic - The production rate increased due to the restart of some devices, and the downstream production rate also increased. The new production capacity was put into operation, and the demand of the agricultural film sector is expected to increase. The impact of policies to solve over - capacity remains to be seen [15][16]. 3.6 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price increased in some areas, and the production rate increased. The downstream production rate was still low, and the export was affected by policies. The inventory was high, and the real - estate market was still in adjustment. New production capacity was put into operation, and the demand has not improved significantly [17]. 3.7 Urea - The price opened low and fluctuated. The upstream factory price declined, and the market sentiment was cautious. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The inventory continued to increase [19].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's manufacturing added - value is expected to increase by 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, with the overall scale ranking first globally for 15 consecutive years. China has built the world's largest and most extensive network infrastructure, with 4.598 million 5G base stations and over 100 million devices connected to key industrial Internet platforms, and 35,000 basic - level and 230 excellent - level smart factories have been built [1] - The US government's preliminary benchmark revision data shows that the non - farm employment in the US was revised down by 911,000 in the year ending March this year, an average monthly reduction of nearly 76,000, the largest downward revision since 2000, which may lead to a series of interest rate cuts by the Fed starting next week [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that the listing benchmark price for the OP2601 - OP2608 contracts of offset printing paper futures is 4,218 yuan/ton [1] - Hamas strongly condemned Israel's attempted assassination of the leader of the Hamas negotiation delegation in Doha, Qatar, but the chief negotiator Khalil al - Hayya was not assassinated [2] - As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, China's domestic soybean oil inventory was 1.443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons (1.60%); domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 97,000 tons (9.09%); domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 708,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons (4.01%) [2] 2. Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, apples, asphalt, and PP [3] 3. Night - session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.79%, precious metals 30.03%, oilseeds and oils 10.92%, non - ferrous and soft commodities 2.38% and 20.65%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 14.41%, energy 2.72%, chemicals 12.04%, grains 1.08%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.98% [3] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Annual Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.51 | - 1.31 | 13.59 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.38 | - 1.61 | 9.08 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.70 | - 1.35 | 12.74 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.90 | - 1.63 | 21.01 | | | S&P 500 | 0.27 | 0.81 | 10.73 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.19 | 3.43 | 29.30 | | | German DAX | - 0.37 | - 0.77 | 19.13 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.42 | 1.73 | 8.94 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.23 | 0.60 | 13.09 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.06 | - 0.03 | - 1.06 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.01 | 0.05 | - 0.91 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.02 | - 0.04 | - 0.58 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | - 0.98 | 0.90 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.84 | - 1.98 | - 12.71 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.33 | 5.15 | 38.11 | | | LME Copper | - 0.01 | 0.12 | 12.90 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.17 | 6.69 | 23.36 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.33 | - 0.08 | - 9.88 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 1.63 | - 12.91 | [5]

【冠通研究】 基本面支撑，铜价偏强 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 10 日 【策略分析】 沪铜低开低走，日内震荡收跌，美国劳工统计局公布年度基准修订数据，截至 2025 年 3 月的 12 个月内，非农就业总人数下修 91.1 万，月均少增 7.6 万，创 2000 年以来最 大下修幅度，远超市场预期的 70 万。基本面来看，前期冶炼厂加工费出现回升拐点后， 近两期继续下降。且硫酸价格逐渐出现拐点，预计价格已升至高位，后续对于冶炼厂的 利润弥补将有所下滑，9 月有 5 家冶炼厂有检修计划，涉及粗炼产能 100 万吨，预计 9 月国内电解铜产量将环比下降，铜关税落地后，进口铜货源回流至国内，且国内产量下 半年预计有回落，进口铜货源将挤占国内市场，影响定价。需求方面，截至 2025 年 7 月，铜表观消费量为 137.45 万吨，整体来看，虽目前处于消费淡季阶段，但国内电网设 施投资规模不断加大，拉动铜需求。目前铜价上行后，下游买单意愿不佳，升水承压， 但临近金九银十旺季，需求有转好预期。综合来看，基本面库存低位及金九银十旺季有 好转预期，虽美国就业数据低迷，但铜偏强震荡为主。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司 ...

【冠通研究】 原油：原油震荡上行 制作日期：2025年9月10日 【策略分析】 空单部分止盈离场 原油处于季节性出行旺季尾声，目前EIA数据显示原油超预期累库，汽油去库幅度超预期，整体 油品库存转而增加，美国炼厂开工率小幅回落0.3个百分点，但仍然较高。EIA和IEA均上调全球石油 过剩幅度。9月7日，OPEC+正式发表声明，鉴于全球经济前景稳定、市场基本面健康（反映在较低的 原油库存水平上），八国决定将自2023年4月宣布的每日165万桶额外自愿减产中，实施每日13.7万桶 的产量调整，该调整将于2025年10月起实施。此165万桶/日的产量可根据市场形势变化部分或全部恢 复，且将以循序渐进方式进行。八个欧佩克+国家将于10月5日举行下次会议，这将加剧四季度的原 油压力。沙特阿美将旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油10月份销往亚洲的发货价格下调1美元/桶。美国对印 度商品额外征收25%的关税，在8月27日生效，印度若放弃采购俄罗斯原油，将导致全球原油贸易流 变动，造成对中东原油现货的抢购。目前俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油，印度 和美国仍在继续谈判。关注后续俄乌停火协议谈判进展及印度对于俄罗斯原油的采购情 ...

【冠通研究】 盘面筑底 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 10 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内冲高回落。市场情绪观望为主，上游工厂报价下滑为主。 山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1620-1660 元/吨。印 度 NFL9 月 2 日尿素进口标购最终确认 252.26 万吨成交。基本面来看，供应端日 产高位，库存高企，市场货源充沛，故该幅度的减产并未改变宽松格局。需求端， 内需依然表现低迷，复合肥工厂上期开工大幅下滑，本周预计逐渐复产，厂内成 品库存继续去化，成品肥开始向终端转移，需求前置的缘故，后续集中备肥可能 性较低，成品库存同比偏高下，对尿素的需求增量或有限。尿素厂内库存继续累 库，较上周增加 3.77 万吨，环比增加 3.44%。综合来看，下游需求端观望情绪浓 厚，尿素库存高企且继续攀升，行情偏弱运行为主，价格超跌，盘面筑底。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1681 元/吨低开低走，日内冲高回落，最终 收于 1669 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-1.01%，持仓量 283349 手（+15169 手）。 主力合约前二十名主。力持仓席位来看，多头+7200 ...