1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in the near future. It is recommended to switch to buying on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy. This is due to factors such as the restart of previously shut - down production facilities, the impact of coal price increases on costs, the current situation of downstream demand, and positive market sentiment driven by government policies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 22, the restart of maintenance devices in Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II LDPE and Shanghai SECCO HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. Due to coal production inspections, coal prices have risen significantly. With new production capacity coming on - stream and the restart of maintenance devices, and considering government policies, it is recommended to buy on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with a low of 7264 yuan/ton, a high of 7373 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7368 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, up 1.26%. The open interest decreased by 13,406 lots to 394,148 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7130 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9240 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7660 - 8220 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 18, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 84%, currently at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 18, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the off - season, with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 790,000 tons compared to the previous day, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract fell to $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $830/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the futures market, important macro - level news, updates in various industries such as energy, metals, black - series, and agriculture, as well as the trends in the financial market including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and the upcoming events schedule [2][9][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: On Monday night, domestic futures had mixed results. Coking coal rose over 6%, while alumina, soda ash, glass, and coke rose over 3%. SC crude oil and asphalt fell over 1%, and soybean oil, rapeseed meal, and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell nearly 1% [2]. - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 1.55% to $3410.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.02% to $39.24 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices: WTI crude oil fell 0.41% to $65.78 per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 0.36% to $69.03 per barrel [4]. - London base metals: LME nickel rose 1.92% to $15510.00 per ton, LME zinc rose 0.92% to $2844.50 per ton, and LME copper rose 0.91% to $9867.00 per ton [5]. - International agricultural products: US soybeans fell 1.22%, US corn fell 1.10%, US soybean oil rose 0.41%, US soybean meal fell 1.17%, and US wheat fell 0.82% [6]. Important News - **Macro - news**: The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively; the "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented from September 15, 2025; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) dropped 0.9% to 2400.50 points; in June, total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [9][10]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: The premium for the alternative delivery product of caustic soda futures was adjusted from 80 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton; on July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton; as of July 21, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area continued to decline [20][22]. - **Metal Futures**: Yichun Yinli plans to shut down for equipment maintenance; in June 2025, global primary aluminum production was 6.045 million tons; in the third week of July 2025, Brazil's copper and aluminum ore shipments increased compared to the same period last year [24]. - **Black - series Futures**: From July 14 - 20, 2025, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased; the global iron ore shipment volume increased; coke enterprises decided to raise prices; in the third week of July 2025, Brazil's iron ore shipments decreased compared to the same period last year, but the daily shipment volume increased [26][28][29]. - **Agricultural Futures**: From July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased, but exports decreased; India's vegetable oil inventory increased significantly; it is estimated that Brazil's corn production in the 2024/2025 season will reach 136.3 million tons; in the third week of July 2025, Brazil's soybean shipments decreased compared to the same period last year, but the daily shipment volume increased; as of July 20, the US soybean and corn good - to - excellent rates were reported [31][33][34]. Financial Market - **Financial**: The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year; the Hong Kong stock market also rose, and the number of IPOs and the amount of funds raised in Hong Kong increased significantly; some Hong Kong and US stock investors received tax - supplement notices; the top three stocks held by active equity funds were Tencent, CATL, and Kweichow Moutai [36][37][39]. - **Industry**: As of June 2025, China's Internet user scale reached 1.123 billion, with an Internet penetration rate of 79.7%; China's express delivery volume ranked first in the world for 11 consecutive years; Chengdu introduced 17 new real - estate policies [43][45]. - **Overseas**: In Japan's Senate election, the ruling coalition lost its majority; Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries; the "OBBBA" bill will increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade; the EU may take counter - measures against the US [46][48]. - **International Stock Markets**: US and European stock markets had mixed results; the London Stock Exchange is studying the feasibility of extending trading hours; South Korea is considering raising the stock trading tax; Stellantis reported a net loss in the first half of the year; Verizon's second - quarter revenue exceeded expectations [51][52][53]. - **Commodities**: Propylene futures were listed on July 22; international precious metals rose, international oil prices fell slightly, and London base metals rose [55]. - **Bonds**: The central bank plans to cancel the freeze of bond repurchase collateral; the domestic bond market weakened; the euro - zone and US bond yields fell [57][58][60]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell slightly; the US dollar index fell [61]. Upcoming Events On July 22, there are multiple events including central bank operations, policy announcements, corporate earnings reports, and new stock subscriptions; on July 22 - 23, the 12th Trusted Cloud Conference will be held; propylene futures and options will be listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [64].

Hot News - The State Council Premier Li Qiang signed the "Housing Rental Regulations," which will be implemented on September 15, 2025, emphasizing market - government cooperation and regulating housing rental enterprises [2] - On July 21, the National Energy Administration released June's electricity consumption data, showing a 5.4% year - on - year increase, with varying growth rates in different industries [2] - At a press conference on July 21, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun had no information on the possible meeting between Chinese and US heads of state [2] - The US Congressional Budget Office estimates that the "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in ten years [3] Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are coking coal, soda ash, asphalt, rapeseed meal, and glass [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity futures sectors shows varying growth rates, with the precious metals sector having the highest growth rate of 28.87%, followed by the coal - coking - steel - ore sector at 14.71% and the oil - and - fat sector at 12.44% [4] Major Asset Performance - Different types of major assets have different daily, monthly, and annual growth rates. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a daily increase of 0.72%, a monthly increase of 3.35%, and an annual increase of 6.21%; the precious metals like London spot gold have excellent performance with an annual increase of 29.44% [6]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the risk appetite in the capital market has remained positive, with the prices of risk assets generally rising. Overseas, the impact of US tariffs and internal strife on the capital market has faded, while geopolitical turmoil has had little impact. US inflation data reflects the impact of tariffs, but the increase in core CPI is lower than expected, causing little disturbance to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. Most global stock markets have fluctuated and ended up rising, the BDI index has soared, the US dollar has rebounded slightly, non - US currencies are under pressure, and commodities have shown mixed performance. In China, the "anti - involution" market continues. The A - share market has stabilized above 3,500 points, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas in the commodity market has been strengthened and spread. The domestic bond market has mostly declined, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, while stock indices have generally risen. The domestic commodity market has shown mixed performance, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.84% weekly, and 8 out of 10 commodity sub - indices ending up rising [6]. - The current macro - logical mainline for domestic commodity and stock market trading is the continuation of the anti - involution market. The second - quarter macro data shows that the overall economy is resilient but the marginal trend is weakening. Real estate is still a drag, exports face challenges, consumption is the main driver, and price depression is intensifying. The market anticipates policy support, which strengthens the trading logic of the anti - involution market. The upcoming release of the "Top Ten Industry Steady - Growth Plan" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project have further strengthened the anti - involution market. However, due to economic transformation requirements, the implementation of policies will focus on structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The actual amount of eliminated production capacity may be limited, and the market trend is expected to be volatile, with hot sectors and varieties rotating rapidly. In terms of investment strategies, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the fermentation of the anti - involution market, and risks should be controlled when the market is overly optimistic [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - Asset Category - Overseas, the impact of US tariffs and internal strife on the capital market has become less significant, and geopolitical turmoil has had little impact. Most global stock markets have fluctuated and ended up rising, the BDI index has soared, the US dollar has rebounded slightly, non - US currencies are under pressure, and commodities have shown mixed performance. In China, the "anti - involution" market continues. The A - share market has stabilized above 3,500 points, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas in the commodity market has been strengthened and spread. The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project and the upcoming release of the Top Ten Industry Steady - Growth Plan have strengthened the anti - involution market, and domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products, have seen a long - awaited general rise [11]. 2. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has mostly declined, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, while stock indices have generally risen. The domestic commodity market has shown mixed performance, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.84% weekly, and 8 out of 10 commodity sub - indices ending up rising. Except for the non - ferrous and non - metallic building materials sectors, which declined, other commodities rose. The oilseeds, coking coal, steel, and energy sectors led the gains, and the market's characteristics of strong expectations and weak reality, as well as the strength conversion between domestic and international - priced commodities, have been strengthened [16]. 3. Fund Flow - Last week, funds in the domestic commodity futures market showed a slight net inflow. The energy, precious metals, grains, oilseeds, non - metallic building materials, and soft commodity sectors saw significant fund inflows, while the non - ferrous and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant outflows [19]. 4. Variety Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose last week. Among them, lithium carbonate, shipping index, and industrial silicon led the gains, while LPG, Shanghai lead, and urea led the losses [24]. 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index declined significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also decreased. Most commodity sub - sectors saw a decline in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, non - metallic building materials, and grain sectors experiencing a significant drop, while the energy and oilseeds sectors saw a significant increase [30]. 6. Data Tracking - Internationally, most major commodities ended up rising, the BDI index soared again, copper, soybeans, and silver rose, crude oil and corn fell, the gold price fluctuated and ended flat, and the gold - silver ratio declined. Domestically, the asphalt production rate was stable, real estate sales remained weak, freight rates declined slightly, and short - term capital interest rates rebounded and then fluctuated. In the US, bond yields rose slightly, the China - US interest rate spread was under pressure, inflation expectations rebounded significantly, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar rebounded and then fluctuated, and the RMB exchange rate was stable [32][53][69]. 7. Macro Logic - Stock indices have all risen, valuations have increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP is under pressure. Commodity price indices have fluctuated upwards, inflation expectations have rebounded, and both expectations and reality have risen. In the US, the yield curve of Treasury bonds has become steeper, the term spread is stable, and both real interest rates and the gold price are oscillating at high levels. The US high - frequency "recession indicator" shows a split trend, the impact of tariffs on the economy is not obvious, and the 10Y - 3M Treasury bond spread fluctuates around zero [37][45][61]. 8. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5% in July is 93.6%, slightly lower than last week's 94.7%. The probability of an interest rate cut starting in September is not high, and the highest probability scenario is two 25 - basis - point cuts in October or December, totaling 50 basis points for the year [75]. 9. US CPI Data - In June, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 2.6% and higher than May's 2.4%, marking the largest year - on - year increase since February. The month - on - month increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than May's 0.1%. After excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, accelerating from May's 0.1%. The year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.9%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 3%. Some commodity prices have risen, indicating the impact of US tariff policies, while the decline in used and new car prices has hindered the rise of core CPI [83]. 10. China's First - Half Macro - Economic Data - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively. In the second quarter, the GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter. The overall economy is resilient but the marginal trend is weakening, with real estate being a drag, exports facing challenges, and consumption driving growth [92]. 11. China's CPI and PPI Data - In June, China's CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, ending three consecutive months of decline, while the PPI decline widened to - 3.6%, remaining negative for 33 consecutive months. The continuous divergence between CPI and PPI reveals the complex structural roots of deflationary pressure in the Chinese economy. The decline in PPI is due to over - capacity, weak demand, and external shocks. The market anticipates policy support to break the deflationary spiral, which strengthens the trading logic of the anti - involution market [96][97]. 12. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Plan - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of steady - growth plans for ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. The plan also includes supporting key industrial provinces to play a leading role. The background for the plan is the challenges faced by the industrial economy, and the approach is to combine steady - growth and transformation. Steady - growth aims to consolidate the foundation, while transformation focuses on improving development quality and cultivating new growth drivers. The plan will also optimize the development environment [101][104]. 13. Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project - The Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project officially started on July 19, 2025, in Nyingchi, Tibet. With a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, it plans to build five cascade power stations with a total installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts and an estimated annual power generation of about 300 billion kilowatt - hours. The project is crucial for national energy security and achieving the "dual - carbon" goal, can drive regional development, create employment opportunities, and enhance geopolitical influence. Its commencement, together with the upcoming industry plan, has strengthened the anti - involution market [108][110][111]. 14. This Week's Focus - Monday (July 21): China's 1 - year/5 - year loan prime rates, Japanese stock market closed. Tuesday (July 22): ECB releases bank lending survey report, Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speak at a large - bank capital framework review meeting. Wednesday (July 23): Eurozone consumer confidence index for July, Trump may give a speech on artificial intelligence. Thursday (July 24): ECB announces interest rate decision and holds a press conference by President Lagarde, Eurozone PMI. Friday (July 25): Tokyo CPI for July in Japan, Russian central bank announces interest rate decision [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Demand**: As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. The downstream is in a relative off - season. Although the premium strengthened after the price decline, the trading sentiment remained weak. The output of terminal industrial products such as air conditioners decreased month - on - month. Downstream buyers followed the market on a need - to - basis, and market sentiment was cautious [7]. - **Macro**: US CPI and PPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and inflation data was mild. The decision of the Fed to cut interest rates is highly uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in July remains unclear, but the market generally believes it is low. The US dollar strengthened this week, suppressing the prices in the non - ferrous market. Copper tariffs may be officially implemented on August 1st. In addition to refined copper, copper products may also be subject to tariffs. On July 18th, the State Council Information Office announced a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non - ferrous metals, focusing on both supply and demand [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in July to increase by 15,500 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37%. In the international market, Peruvian protesters lifted the blockade, and the copper transportation and export channels that had been blocked for more than two weeks have resumed [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - Macro Information - US CPI in June was 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%. Core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.8%. CPI was 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations; core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%. PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.6%. Core PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 3% [13]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The weekly high was 78,590 yuan/ton, the low was 77,700 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.13%, and the interval decline was - 0.03% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - Copper Industry Disturbances - Vedanta Resources' Zambian subsidiary Konkola Copper Mines announced on July 16th that it will shut down and transform its smelter to improve capacity efficiency, which is a key measure to fulfill its $1.2 billion five - year investment commitment. - The world's largest cable manufacturer, Prysmian SpA, supports the Trump administration's planned 50% copper import tariff, believing it will strengthen the US domestic supply chain, although costs will be passed on to end - users [21]. 3.4 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of July 21st, the average spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of copper was low. After the copper price declined, spot circulation was smooth, and the spot premium strengthened [27]. 3.5 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of July 18th, the weekly change of LME copper was 0.83%, closing at $9,720 per ton. After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper spot premium weakened significantly. Currently, LME copper is at a discount to futures, mainly due to the sufficient supply of market - available copper and the weakening of spot prices [32]. 3.6 Copper Concentrate Port Data - Inventory - As of July 18th, the copper concentrate inventory at 7 major domestic ports decreased by 32,000 tons to 457,000 tons this week. The copper concentrate inventory continued to decline and is currently at an absolute low level in the same period over the years. In May, China imported about 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the average monthly import volume of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [37]. 3.7 Smelter Processing Fees - TC/RC - As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production [43]. 3.8 Scrap Copper - Refined - Scrap Spread - As of July 18, 2025, the refined - scrap spread in the mainstream areas was 827 yuan/ton. The weekly spread strengthened, while the monthly spread weakened. Currently, the refined - scrap spread is at a low level, the substitution advantage of scrap copper is poor, the scrap copper rod production start - up rate increased slightly, and the scrap copper procurement sentiment was low [50]. 3.9 Inventory Information - COMEX - As of July 18th, the COMEX copper inventory was 242,800 short tons, and it increased by 2,379 short tons in the past week, a change of 0.02%. As the copper tariff implementation on August 1st approaches, the rush - to - buy copper sentiment is fading, and the inventory accumulation speed in the US has slowed down. As of July 18th, the LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. Since the copper tariff was implemented in early July, the LME copper inventory has rebounded from a low level, suppressing the LME copper price [56]. 3.10 Inventory Information - SHFE - As of July 18th, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from last week, a change of - 16.73%, and a decrease of 6,600 tons from last month, a change of - 15.00%. After the 50% copper tariff was implemented, the export channels tightened, and the domestic copper inventory increased significantly. In the past two days, it has decreased slightly due to new spot purchases after the price decline [60]. 3.11 Inventory Information - Bonded Area - As of July 17th, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 73,900 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and a decrease of 800 tons from the 14th. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 69,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and unchanged from the 14th. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 5,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the 10th and the 14th. The bonded area inventory showed a downward trend. Although there were still smelter export goods entering the warehouse this week, some warehouses also had goods shipped out for export, resulting in a decrease in inventory [63]. 3.12 Refined Copper Monthly Imports and Exports - In June 2025, China exported 154,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 464,000 tons. From January to June, China imported 2.633 million tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, China imported 337,000 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month increase of 44,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 92,300 tons. Exports of refined copper were 79,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 49.92% [68]. 3.13 Downstream Demand - **Copper Rod**: The output of copper rods continued to decline slightly. The market acceptance was low, especially due to insufficient domestic raw material supply and upstream suppliers hoarding goods. In July, the off - season demand affected copper rod production and sales. - **Copper Foil**: The price of copper foil fluctuated. The market supply and demand were weak this week, and the downstream market was not optimistic, with general support from the supply - demand side. - **Copper Tube**: The output of copper tubes decreased significantly due to the shrinking long - term orders from downstream. Large enterprises had a more prominent production cut due to their high previous - period base, while small and medium - sized enterprises had a relatively gentle decline due to capacity limitations [73]. 3.14 Downstream End - Users - As of the end of May, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9%, and wind power installed capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.1%. - In June 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 163.296 million units, a cumulative increase of 5.5% [78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, domestic urea's domestic demand was insufficient, dragging down the price. On Friday, the anti - involution measures continued to ferment, increasing the market's expectation of capacity reduction, which stimulated capital sentiment. Bulls entered the market, leading to a sharp rise today. However, the fundamentals have not significantly improved. With export containerization ongoing, there is a game between upward and downward support pressures, and the market is oscillating strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, domestic demand for urea was insufficient, and the spot price decreased. In the second half, upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, and order collection improved. Since the weekend, the urea price has been rising steadily, and some factories have restricted sales or stopped accepting orders today [4] 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. On Monday this week, the main contract opened with a gap up and oscillated strongly. As of July 21, the urea main September contract closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton from the settlement price on July 14. The weekly trading volume of the main contract last week was 17.8598 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 674,500 tons; the open interest was 6.6731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 103,700 tons. Affected by anti - involution measures, the futures market opened with a gap up. Last week, the futures price increase was stronger than the spot price increase, and the basis weakened [7] 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly urea output decreased. Coal - based weekly output showed a slight increase, while gas - based weekly output decreased significantly. Next week, 4 - 5 factories are expected to resume production, and the output is expected to recover. As of July 21, the national daily urea output was 197,500 tons, with an operating rate of 84.07%. In the raw material market, coal prices generally rose, and the price of liquefied natural gas increased. The price of synthetic ammonia decreased, and the price of methanol increased [13][15][16] 4. Urea Demand - side - Last week, the compound fertilizer price increased. The raw material procurement of nitrogen fertilizer for autumn fertilizer preparation has reached 30%, but the demand for urea is limited. The operating rate of compound fertilizer and melamine increased. As of July 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to rise in the second half of the year [18][20] 5. International Market - India's demand is strong, and RCF's urea import tender was settled at 1.47 million tons. It is expected to conduct another import tender in August. Other regions are cautious about following high prices, and the urea price is expected to weaken. As of July 17, the FOB prices of small and large - sized urea in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The prices of most domestic futures contracts closed higher on July 21, with some showing significant increases and others experiencing declines. The market is influenced by various factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical situations, and macro - policies [7]. - Different commodities have different price trends. For example, coking coal may be over - bought, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, copper will fluctuate mainly with short - term strength, and lithium carbonate may correct after the sentiment stabilizes [3][5][10][12]. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - The price opened high and closed high, rising nearly 8% on the day. The spot price increased, and imports in June rose by 172.15 million tons month - on - month. The market is active, but there are signs of over - buying due to sentiment [3]. Soybean Oil - The price of the main 09 contract closed down 0.47%. Supply is strong, but concerns about US weather and bio - fuel policies may drive up prices in the future, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. Copper - The price opened high and trended strongly, rising nearly 2%. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly with short - term strength [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened high and rose nearly 3%. Although the fundamentals have not fully reversed, the sentiment has improved. The price rebound is sentiment - driven and may correct later [11][12]. Crude Oil - Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but many factors still need to be monitored. The market has reflected OPEC +'s accelerated production increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Asphalt - The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and considering the seasonal factors and price trends of crude oil, it is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [15]. PP - The downstream demand is weak, the supply is increasing, and considering the macro - policies, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy at low prices or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [16]. Plastic - The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and considering the macro - policies, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy at low prices or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [18]. PVC - The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and considering the macro - policies, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy at low prices or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [19][20]. Bean Meal - The price rose slightly, but the increase is limited due to the loose supply. The trade situation may improve, which is beneficial to the market sentiment [21]. Rebar - The price rose 2.15%. There is a short - term callback risk, but considering the demand increase from the project, it is recommended to go long lightly at 3220 yuan [22][23]. Hot Rolled Coil - The price rose 2.20%. The demand is expected to increase in the long - term, and it is recommended to trade according to different price levels [24]. Urea - The price opened higher and trended strongly. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and there is a risk of correction [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuation of the anti - involution market is the main macro - logical line for domestic commodity and stock market trading. Policy expectations under the current economic situation lead to the continuation of this market. The upcoming release of the MIIT's ten - key industries' stable growth plan and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project jointly strengthen the anti - involution market, causing a general rise in domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products [2][4]. - The background for the ten - key industries' stable growth plan is the challenges faced in the current industrial economy. The ideas for dealing with these challenges are stable growth and transformation, which are complementary. The stable growth is to consolidate the foundation, and the transformation is manifested in improving development quality and cultivating development momentum. The plan clarifies the direction of the anti - involution market, but the final implementation may not exceed expectations, and the market trend is expected to be tortuous with rapid rotation of hot sectors and varieties [6][8]. - For investment strategies, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the fermentation of the anti - involution market, and risks should be controlled and rapid price corrections should be guarded against when the market is extremely optimistic [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Event Introduction - On July 18, MIIT's Chief Engineer Xie Shaofeng stated that a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials would be implemented, and the specific plans would be released soon. On July 19, the start ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, a total installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts, and an expected annual power generation of about 300 billion kilowatt - hours. These two events jointly strengthened the anti - involution market, leading to a general rise in domestic - priced commodities [2]. Market Performance - Domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products, witnessed a long - awaited general rise. Alumina once rose more than 8% during the session, leading the domestic commodities, and varieties such as glass, soda ash, coking coal, and caustic soda once rose more than 5% during the session. The table also shows the settlement price and price change rates of various commodities such as iron ore, rolled steel, and palm oil [2][3]. Economic Situation and Policy Expectations - From the second - quarter macro data, the overall economy has resilience but is weakening marginally. The real estate sector still drags down the economy, exports face challenges, and consumption plays a major role. The continuous negative growth of PPI for 33 months indicates an endogenous deflation risk in the Chinese economy, which forms a negative feedback loop. The market has strong policy expectations under this situation, and the anti - involution market continues [4]. MIIT's Work Plan - In the second half of the year, to maintain the stable operation and high - quality development of the industrial economy, MIIT will focus on two major actions. One is to implement a new round of stable growth actions, including printing stable growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The other is to implement intelligent and green transformation and upgrading actions, including printing digital transformation implementation plans for the automobile, machinery, and power equipment industries and green development outlines for the aviation and shipbuilding industries [5]. Policy Background and Ideas - The background for the ten - key industries' stable growth plan is the challenges in the current industrial economy, such as external uncertainties and industrial structural contradictions. The ideas are stable growth and transformation. Stable growth aims to consolidate the foundation, and transformation is manifested in improving development quality and cultivating development momentum. To implement these, the development environment needs to be optimized [6]. Policy Impact and Investment Strategy - The upcoming release of the MIIT's ten - key industries' stable growth plan clarifies the direction of the anti - involution market and strengthens investors' expectations. The start of the hydropower project makes up for the market's concerns about the lack of demand - side pull in the "supply - side reform". However, the final implementation of the plan may not exceed expectations, and the market trend will be tortuous. For investment, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the market fermentation, and risks should be controlled when the market is overly optimistic [8].

1. Hot News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments have deployed work to further standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, including product price monitoring, product consistency supervision, and shortening the payment period for suppliers. The central fourth steering group also called for regulating the industry's competition order [2] - The Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xie Shaofeng, pointed out that a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials have been released. Plans for industries like machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, as well as an implementation plan for the digital transformation of the automobile industry, will be issued [2] - EU member states have officially approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on the largest refinery of a Russian oil company in India, banning activities related to the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline, and lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 [2] - The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held in Nyingchi, Tibet. The project involves building 5 cascade power stations with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will optimize the option settlement price business from July 22, using the SVI volatility model to calculate the settlement price [3] 2. Sector Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, PVC, crude oil, and hot - rolled coils are the sectors to focus on [4] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.91%, precious metals 28.64%, energy 3.26%, chemicals 12.63%, grains 1.26%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.79% [4] Commodity Sector Funds - The data shows the percentage changes in commodity sector funds, but specific changes for each sector are not clearly described [4] Commodity Futures Position Changes - The position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented, but specific data for each sector are not clearly described [6] 3. Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% daily, 2.61% monthly, and 5.45% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.33% daily, 3.13% monthly, and 23.76% annually. Other indices such as the S&P 500, German DAX, etc., also have corresponding performance data [8] Fixed - income - 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.10% monthly, and 0.12% annually; 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.16% monthly, and 0.52% annually [8] Commodity - The CRB commodity index rose 0.62% daily, 2.97% monthly, and 3.17% annually; WTI crude oil fell 0.31% daily, rose 3.58% monthly, and fell 6.38% annually [8] Others - The US dollar index fell 0.18% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and fell 9.24% annually; the CBOE volatility index fell 0.67% daily, 1.91% monthly, and 5.42% annually [8]