美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支 持降息 25BP；鲍威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据 说话。鲍威尔还表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政策，建议继任 者远离政治。 【冠通期货研究报告】 烧碱日报：跟踪生产企业减产情况 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 【基本面分析】 1、周末，山东液碱市场价格继续下跌，部分订单执行一单一议，实单下调 10-20 不等，省外下游采购量及价格已经出台，价格较低，采购量也不大，对山 东支撑小，省内氧化铝采购价格在周末下调 15 至 600。 2、烧碱开工率 87.70%,(+1.00%);烧碱周度产量 86.30 万吨(+1.00)。需求 方面:主力下游氧化铝开工率 85.18%(-0.65%)，氧化铝周度产量 183.90 万吨 (-1.40)，氧化铝港口库存 16.80(+3.20);印染华东开工率 56.54%(-2.22%);粘胶 短纤开工率 88.43%(+0.00%);白卡纸开工率:74.37%(-6.30%);阔叶浆开工率 89.70%(-1.30%)。 4、国家统计局 1 月 2 ...

PVC日报：震荡运行 【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026年1月29日 【行情分析】 期货方面： PVC2605合约减仓震荡运行，最低价4860元/吨，最高价4928元/吨，最终收盘于4895元/吨， 在20日均线上方，跌幅0.37%，持仓量减少23946手至1015893手。 基差方面： 1月29日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4685元/吨，V2605合约期货收盘价在4895元/ 吨，目前基差在-210元/吨，走强8元/吨，基差处于偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.89个百分点至78.74%，PVC开工 率小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平。下游赶在节前促销，PVC下游开工率环比上升0.95个百分点， 但下游主动备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，PVC出口签单大 幅增加，升至近年来的高位，随着出口价格上涨，成交阻力增大，不过，美国面临寒潮冲击之下， 国内出口签单继续环比小幅走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to follow the market sentiment and show a strong and volatile trend in the short - term, driven by low valuation, cold weather and the geopolitical situation in Iran, but the sustainability of the PP rebound should be treated with caution due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and limited spot follow - up [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as plastics have new production capacity coming on - stream recently, with a higher operating rate than PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic mulch has not yet started [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PP rebounded 0.34 percentage points month - on - month to 52.87%, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped 0.56 percentage points month - on - month to 42.04%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 29, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 27.5% [1][5] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cold weather boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns. Coupled with the escalating geopolitical situation in Iran, crude oil prices rose [1] - Recently, the number of maintenance devices increased slightly. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but as the Spring Festival holiday approached, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving continued to decline, and new orders were limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6780 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6898 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6870 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 1.54%. The open interest increased by 13300 lots to 556684 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose. Drawstring was quoted at 6400 - 6910 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 29, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 27.5% [5] - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PP rebounded 0.34 percentage points month - on - month to 52.87%, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped 0.56 percentage points month - on - month to 42.04%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year [5] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 2.5 tons month - on - month to 47.5 tons, 8.5 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [5] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 03 rose above 69 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 820 US dollars per ton month - on - month [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. Recently, a glass production line has resumed production, leading to a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. In the short - term, the futures market is affected by anti - involution sentiment and energy price increases, showing a strong trend. However, the continuously increasing high inventory pressure will still limit the price rebound space. Therefore, the short - term futures price is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish. It is necessary to continue to monitor changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash futures contract opened higher and strengthened during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed an opening horn, indicating a short - term oscillating and slightly bullish signal. The intraday pressure was near the previous secondary high, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume increased by 331,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 7,400 lots. The intraday high was 1225, the low was 1193, and the closing price was 1224, up 31 yuan/ton or 2.6% compared to the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was weakly stable. The enterprise equipment was operating stably, with supply remaining at a high level. Some enterprises had maintenance plans in early February. Downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and transactions were mainly based on low - price restocking [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 26 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash output was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% month - on - month from 86.42% last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% compared to Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 82,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. It increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52% compared to last Thursday. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,845,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30,090 tons or 16.31% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and the consumption was mainly based on inventory and low - price rigid demand purchasing [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, the price of thermal coal oscillated downward, and the cost decreased slightly [3] Main Logic Summary - The high capacity utilization rate and the release of new production capacity lead to an increase in overall output. The resumption of a glass production line has slightly increased the rigid demand for soda ash. The short - term futures market is affected by anti - involution sentiment and energy price increases, but the high inventory pressure limits the price rebound space. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish [4]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views - The report presents a wide - ranging overview of overnight market trends across various asset classes including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, along with important macro, industry - specific, and geopolitical news that could potentially impact these markets [5][34][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 6.46% at $5411.00/oz and COMEX silver up 10.06% at $116.62/oz due to Fed's signals and market speculation on the chairperson [5] - Crude oil prices increased, with WTI up 1.78% at $63.5/barrel and Brent up 1.56% at $67.63/barrel, driven by supply - related concerns [5] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME tin up 3.52%, LME aluminum up 1.59%, LME nickel up 1.12% [5] - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with fuel oil, asphalt etc. up over 1%, while ethylene glycol, corn etc. slightly down [7] Important Information Macro - information - By the end of 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, up 16.1% year - on - year [9] - Yichun lifted the heavy pollution weather yellow alert on January 28, 2026 [10] - As of December 2025, there were 150 futures companies in China, with a trading volume of 992 million lots and an operating income of 4.918 billion yuan in December [10] - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate broke through 7 at the end of 2025, and it is expected to remain stable in 2026 [10] - Trump warned Iran, and the US may face another partial government shutdown [10][11] - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark rate at 2.25% [13] - The US Treasury Secretary expressed views on Fed's policy and the exchange - rate policy [13] - The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - The 2026 potash market is expected to see increased supply and stable prices [16] - As of January 28, 2026, China's methanol port inventory was 1.4721 million tons, up 14,600 tons [16] - UAE's Fujairah port's refined oil inventory increased by 2.012 million barrels to 23.369 million barrels in the week ending January 26, 2026 [18] - US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels in the week ending January 23 [18] Metal Futures - Guinea's bauxite exports in 2025 increased 25% year - on - year to 182.8 million tons [20] - Thailand's central bank restricted gold trading to manage the Thai baht exchange rate [20] - CME adjusted margin parameters for some silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts [20] - China's polysilicon production is expected to decline significantly in January and February [20] - Russian Norilsk Nickel's 2025 and 2026 production forecasts for nickel and palladium were released [21] - Multiple exchanges adjusted margin and price - limit ratios for precious and base metal futures contracts [23][24] - A large smelting enterprise in Henan reduced production by 30% due to fog warnings [25] - Two zinc mines in Southwest China plan to reduce production in February [25] Black - series Futures - Two iron ore units of Vale were suspended, with an annual output of about 8 million tons [28] - As of January 28, national building materials production decreased, while inventories increased [28] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise coke prices on January 30 [29] Agricultural Product Futures - Argentina's drought may reduce 2025/26 crop yields [31] - Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 25, 2026 decreased 14.81% compared to the same period last month [31] - CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased 12.08% in the week ending January 23 [31] Financial Market Financial - A - shares fluctuated, with resource stocks rising and the photovoltaic industry chain adjusting [34] - The Hang Seng Index rose to a new high since August 2021 [34] - In 2025, Chinese public security cracked down on major securities crimes [35] - By the end of December 2025, China's public funds reached a new high of 37.7 trillion yuan [35] - The first CSI A500ETF was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [35] Industry - The withdrawal of "zombie" Chinese patent medicine approvals will not impact the market [37] - China's installed power generation capacity increased by 16.1% by the end of 2025 [37] - Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators [37] - China approved two medical device industry standards [37] - Three ministries issued 18 policies to support the elderly - care service industry [37] - A football "match - fixing" news conference will be held [38] - A Shenzhen gold platform faced a payment crisis [38] - The demand for solid - state batteries in humanoid robots is expected to exceed 74GWh by 2035 [40] Overseas - Trump threatened Iran, and Iran is on high alert [41] - India reported two Nipah virus cases with low spread risk [41] - Germany lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1% [41] - The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates if the outlook is as expected [42] - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark rate at 2.25% [42] - South Korea's former first - lady was sentenced to 1 year and 8 months [43] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.01%, and the Nasdaq up 0.17% [44] - European stocks fell due to Trump's threat to Iran [44] - Most Asian - Pacific stocks rose, except for the Indonesian index which tumbled [45] - SpaceX may launch an IPO in mid - June with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion [45] - Microsoft, Meta, and other companies reported strong earnings [45][46] Commodities - Exchanges tightened risk - control measures for futures contracts [49] - International precious metals and crude oil prices rose, while base metals mostly increased [49][50][51] Bonds - Chinese treasury bond futures rose on Wednesday, and the Ministry of Finance completed a treasury cash management deposit auction [52][53] - The National Development Bank issued RMB 5.5 billion of bonds in Macau [54] - Japan's 40 - year treasury bond auction had a high bid - to - cover ratio [54] - US treasury bond yields showed mixed performance [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB/USD exchange rate rose, and China signed a RMB clearing agreement with Sri Lanka [56] - The yen depreciated against the dollar, and Thailand's central bank restricted gold trading [56] - The US dollar index rose 0.63% [57] Upcoming Events - There are multiple central bank interest - rate decisions, news conferences, and corporate earnings announcements scheduled for the day [59]

早盘速递 2026/1/29 热点资讯 -0.50 0.00 油脂油料, 7.71% 软商品, 2.33% 1.美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变，在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预期。美联储主席候选人沃勒支 持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米兰立场一致。美联储在声明中指出，失业率已现初步企稳迹象，通胀仍处于相对高 位，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，加息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设，不相 信美联储会丧失独立性，将建议下一届美联储主席远离政治。 2.国家能源局发布数据显示，截至2025年底，全国累计发电装机容量38.9亿千瓦，同比增长16.1%。其中，太阳能发电装机容 量12亿千瓦，增长35.4%；风电装机容量6.4亿千瓦，增长22.9%。 3.多家房企证实，目前已不再被监管部门要求每月上报"三条红线"指标。不过，部分出险房企仍被要求向总部所在城市专班 组定期汇报资产负债率等财务指标。 4.美国总统特朗普再次对伊朗发出威胁称，下次对伊朗的打击将更加猛烈。特朗普称，一支庞大的舰队正前往伊朗，已准备好 迅速履行其使命。针对特朗普威胁，伊朗外长阿拉格 ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1770 1770 0 河南 1760 1750 10 山东 1760 1760 0 山西 1620 1610 10 江苏 1780 1770 10 安徽 1770 1760 10 黑龙江 1780 1780 0 内蒙古 1790 1790 0 河北东光 1760 1750 10 山东华鲁 1740 1740 0 江苏灵谷 1800 1800 0 安徽昊源 1730 1730 0 山东05基差 -41 -28 -13 山东01基差 -19 -3 -16 河北05基差 -21 -38 17 河北01基差 1 -13 14 1-5价差 22 24 -2 5-9价差 22 25 -3 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 12699 12699 0 中东FOB 426 426 0 美湾FOB 423.5 423.5 0 埃及FOB 462.5 462.5 0 波罗的海FOB 405 405 0 巴西CFR 432.5 432.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 仓 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend, with low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast stabilizing and high - protein soybeans in short supply. The 100% bid - ask success rate of CGSGB's soybean transactions shows market demand support [1] - Corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. If there is a significant decline, it can be considered for buying at low prices. In the Northeast, farmers' selling has increased, while feed and deep - processing plants have increased their inventory [1] - In the first half of 2026, the inventory of laying hens is expected to decline monthly, with the largest decline in March and April. Due to a marginal increase in inventory compared to the second half of last year, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] - The de - capacity of the pig industry is still ongoing. The supply of live pigs around the Spring Festival is expected to be large, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [3] 3. Key Points by Commodity Soybean - Low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast are stable, with tight supply and limited trading. High - protein soybeans are in short supply, with 39% protein content soybeans priced around 2.2 yuan per catty. CGSGB's soybean bid - ask success rate was 100% for 24,099 tons, indicating market demand support, and a moderately strong and volatile trend is expected [1] Corn - In the Northeast, farmers' selling has increased after the twelfth lunar month. Feed and deep - processing plants have a rigid demand for pre - holiday stocking, and some have increased their purchasing enthusiasm. However, due to the high price of dry corn, the inventory days of mainstream plants have increased to over 30 days. A wide - range pre - holiday fluctuation is expected, and buying at low prices can be considered if there is a significant decline [1] Egg - Based on chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly in the first half of 2026, with the largest decline in March and April due to low replenishment and accelerated old - hen culling. The decline will narrow in May as the industry enters a supply - demand adjustment period. Excessive short - selling is not recommended due to a marginal increase in inventory [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and 101.6% of the normal level. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. The year - end inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The de - capacity is ongoing, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously around the Spring Festival. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and sow numbers [2][3]

油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 豆粕：CONAB：巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收获进度为 6.6%，高于一周前的 2.3%， 去年同期 3.2%，五年同期均值 7.0%。马托格罗索的大豆收获进度为 19.7%，一 周前 6.4%，去年同期 3.6%，五年均值 18%。帕拉纳州的大豆收获进度为 3%，一 周前 2%，去年同期 10%，五年均值 6.8%。作物专家：近日阿根廷气温飙升至接近 40 摄氏度，主要农业区急需降雨，但是预计要到 2 月份才能迎来显著降水。由 于天气担忧，其将阿根廷大豆产量预估下调 200 万吨至 4700 万吨。预测巴西大 豆产量将达到 1.79 亿吨，高于此前预测的 1.78 亿吨。不过其强调了巴西大豆 作物未来仍面临风险，高温干旱天气可能会影响作物产量。 Mysteel 农产品团队预估，2026 年 2 月份国内全样本油厂大豆到港 77 船， 共计约 500.50 万吨（本月船重按 6.5 万吨计），本月到港包含部分储备轮换豆。 此外，根据船期及调研初步预估，2026 年 3 月预计 480 万吨，4 月 950 万吨。 近月 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周三持仓量增仓 9222 手，成交量 283776 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3275 元，最高价 3290 元，日内 震荡偏弱运行，日均线来看短期跌破 5 日均线，30 日均线附近，收于 3280 元/ 吨，下跌 13 元，跌幅 0.39%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3280 元/吨。相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期现基差 0 元，基本平水。 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 22 日热卷周产量环比下降 2.95 万吨至 305.41 万吨。 年同比下降 17.23 万吨，产量环比回落，同比大幅下降，反映钢厂产能释放有 所收敛，可能受检修安排，利润波动等因素影响，支撑价格。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 22 日周度表观消费量环比下降 4.2 万吨至 309.96 万 吨，年同比上升 7.39 万吨，需求环比略有回落，但同比保持增长，节前备货对 需求形成支撑，整体需求韧性较强。 ■库存端：截止 1 月 22 日总库存周环比下降 4 ...