1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as unchanged supply - demand patterns, slowing petrochemical inventory reduction, and insufficient downstream procurement willingness [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - On November 21, the restart of maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang's LDPE 1 line increased the plastic operating rate to around 89.5%, a neutral level [1][4]. - As of the week ending November 21, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is in the peak - season end, with stable orders but lower - than - expected peak - season performance. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - The cost of crude oil has decreased due to factors such as the lack of impact on Russian oil production from new sanctions and the potential for a cease - fire in the Ukraine conflict [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently [1]. 3.2期现行情 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 0.65% with a low of 6768 yuan/ton, a high of 6841 yuan/ton, and closed at 6770 yuan/ton below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 3991 lots to 512,746 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6790 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6950 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply: On November 21, the restart of maintenance devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 89.5%, a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending November 21, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and slightly increased raw material inventory, and packaging film orders also slightly increased. However, the overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.85 million tons, 0.8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory reduction slowed [4]. - Raw materials: Brent crude oil's 01 contract dropped to $63 per barrel, while the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720 and $730 per ton respectively [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。只是 印度反倾销税即将执行，贸易商开始观望，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。本周社会库存小 幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商 品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍 为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/ 年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装 置也大多通过技改升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策， ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.29个百分点至53.57%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑 编开工率持平于44.24%，塑编订单环比略有减少，略低于去年同期。11月21日，广东石化一线、独山 子石化新二线等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至83.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝 生产比例上涨至27%左右。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端，俄罗 斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外有消息 称特朗普政府秘密与俄罗斯协调一项结束乌克兰冲突的新框架，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度， 原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有减 少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单跟进持续性有限，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限， 贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。PP产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解 决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。预计PP偏弱震荡。 现货方面： PP各地区现货价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened high and closed low with an intraday decline, while spot prices continued to rise, with large - sized urea showing stronger growth than medium and small - sized ones. High daily production suppresses the rebound space of the futures market, but downstream demand has become more active after the price rebound, and the supply - demand situation has relatively improved. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation of enterprises after the futures correction. If downstream demand is not sustainable, the futures market will lack upward momentum [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea futures opened at 1666 yuan/ton and closed at 1654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton. The upstream production capacity is gradually recovering, and the current daily production is around 200,000 tons. The downstream compound fertilizer plant's operating rate increased by 4.29% month - on - month and 2.59% year - on - year, and the melamine operating rate also increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [1][2][5] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2601 opened high and closed low, with a closing price of 1654 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%, and a position of 243,246 lots (- 2177 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 519 lots and short positions increased by 2109 lots. Spot: The spot price continued to rise, with large - sized urea having a stronger increase. The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton [2][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot price rose while the futures closing price fell. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+ 31 yuan/ton) compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On November 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.34% [8][11]

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 | | | | | | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 一周走势 | | 河北 | | 1650 | 1650 | 0 | | | 河南 | | 1650 | 1630 | 20 | | | 山东 | | 1650 | 1640 | 10 | | | 主流地区市场价 | 山西 | 1510 | 1510 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1640 | 1620 | 20 | | | 安徽 | | 1640 | 1630 | 10 | | | 黑龙江 | | 1730 | 1720 | 10 | | | 内蒙古 | | 1720 | 1700 | 20 | | | 河北东光 | | 1640 | 1630 | 10 | | | 工厂价 | 山东华鲁 | 1630 | 1620 | 10 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏灵谷 | 1680 | 1660 | 20 | | | 安徽昊源 | | 1630 | 1620 | 10 | | | 山东05基差 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt supply this week decreased, with the production rate falling by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, and the expected production in November dropping by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The downstream demand is weakening, with the overall demand remaining flat. Considering that the base price in Shandong is at a neutral level and the spot price is stable, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: The asphalt production rate this week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting a record low for this time of the year. The expected production in November is 222.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 27.4 million tons (11.0%). Next week, the production rate will rise as some refineries stabilize production [1]. - Demand: The downstream industry production rates showed mixed trends this week, with the road asphalt production rate remaining flat at 34% due to funding and weather constraints. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will further weaken. The project increment in the south is limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat this week, near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Price: Crude oil prices declined. The Shandong asphalt base price is at a neutral level, and the spot price is basically stable. The market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.46% to 3009 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3000 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3086 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 6145 to 166,038 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 11 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped asphalt production, causing the production rate to fall by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting a record low for this time of the year [1][4]. - Demand - related investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in road transportation and infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) were - 4.3% and - 0.1% respectively, both showing a downward trend [4]. - Social financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 21, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat at 14.5% compared to the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - For soda ash, the current week's开工率 is 82.68%, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous value; the产量 is 72.09 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 1.83 from the previous value; the重质产量 is 39.62, a decrease of 1.47 from the previous value; the轻质产量 is 32.47, a decrease of 0.36 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the current week's开工率 is 74.854%, a decrease of 0.146% from the previous value; the产线条数 remains 222; the产量 is 111.0195 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 0.375 from the previous value [1]. Inventory - For soda ash, the厂内库存 is 164.44 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 6.29 from the previous value; the重质库存 is 88.73, a decrease of 1.98 from the previous value; the轻质库存 is 75.71, a decrease of 4.31 from the previous value; the库存可用天数 is 13.63 days, a decrease of 0.53 days from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the库存 is 6330.3 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), an increase of 5.6 from the previous value; the库存可用天数 remains 27.5 days [1]. Profit - For soda ash, the氨碱法毛利 is -38.5 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 15 from the previous value; the联产法毛利 is -153.5 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), an increase of 28.5 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the天然气利润 is -206.84 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 19.14 from the previous value; the石油焦利润 is 8.52 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 24 from the previous value; the煤制气利润 is 25.79 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 25.47 from the previous value [1]. Basis & Spread - For soda ash, the基差 is -30, an increase of 15 from the previous value; the 1 - 5价差 is 74, an increase of 8 from the previous value; the纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 169, a decrease of 14 from the previous value; the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 113, a decrease of 19 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the基差 is 81, an increase of 33 from the previous value; the 1 - 5价差 is 130, an increase of 13 from the previous value [1].

Group 1: Report Core Data - Total port inventory this week was 15054.65, a decrease of 75.06 from last week [1] - The daily average port clearance volume this week was 329.92, an increase of 2.97 from last week [1] - The imported ore inventory of steel mills this week was 9001.23, a decrease of 74.78 from last week [1] - The daily consumption of imported ore by steel mills this week was 291.68, a decrease of 0.95 from last week [1] - The arrival volume this week was 2268.9, a decrease of 472.30 from last week [1] - The output of domestic iron ore concentrate this week was 40.28, an increase of 0.16 from last week [1] - The daily average pig iron output this week was 236.28, a decrease of 0.60 from last week [1] - The steel mill start - up rate this week was 82.19, a decrease of 0.62 from last week [1] - The capacity utilization rate this week was 88.58, a decrease of 0.22 from last week [1] - The steel mill profitability rate this week was 37.66, a decrease of 1.3 from last week [1] - The inventory of coarse powder this week was 11550.01, a decrease of 50.74 from last week [1] - The inventory of lump ore this week was 1963.04, a decrease of 33.13 from last week [1] - The inventory of pellets this week was 293.17, a decrease of 11.62 from last week [1] - The inventory of iron concentrate this week was 1248.43, an increase of 20.43 from last week [1] - The inventory of trade ore this week was 9765.58, a decrease of 74.84 from last week [1] - The inventory of Brazilian ore this week was 6007.01, an increase of 44.33 from last week [1] - The inventory of Australian ore this week was 6226.24, a decrease of 100.28 from last week [1] Group 2: Data Sources and Notes - Data is sourced from Wind, Steel Union data, and compiled by Guantong Research [1] - Port data uses Mysteel's 45 - port data; steel mill data uses Mysteel's 247 - steel mill data; the daily average output of 126 iron concentrate mines is bi - weekly published data [1] - Red shading indicates newly updated data on the day, and gray shading indicates non - updated data on the day [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Information Morning Report - Release Date: November 21, 2025 Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and the performance of various financial markets including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides information on upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: US WTI crude oil was at $58.76 per barrel, Brent crude futures fell 0.63% to $63.11 per barrel [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures dropped 0.15% to $4076.7 per ounce, COMEX silver futures declined 0.98% to $50.355 per ounce [5]. - **Base Metals**: LME nickel, copper, and lead fell, while zinc, tin, and aluminum rose [5]. - **Domestic Futures**: Fuel oil, asphalt, rubber, and 20 - number rubber rose, while pulp, palm oil, and glass fell [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - **Monetary Policy**: China's central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively for six consecutive months [9]. - **Gold Exchange**: Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of market instability and asked members to take risk - control measures [9]. - **Trade and Economy**: China is implementing the consensus of the China - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations. The source of the global semiconductor supply chain chaos is in the Netherlands [9][12]. - **Stock Market Policy**: The CSRC will strengthen system construction, risk prevention, and investor protection [10]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: Morgan Stanley no longer expects a Fed rate cut in December, now forecasting three cuts in January, April, and June next year [10]. - **International Politics**: Ukraine's President Zelensky agreed to work on a peace plan, and Iran's military raised its combat readiness [12][13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Soda Ash**: Total domestic soda ash inventory decreased by 3.68% to 164.44 million tons as of November 20 [14]. - **Pulp**: China's pulp port inventory rose 3.0% to 217.3 million tons [16]. - **Methanol**: East China port methanol inventory decreased by 1.57 million tons, and China's methanol production increased [17][18]. - **Fuel Oil and Distillates**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory dropped, while middle and light distillate inventories rose [17]. - **Float Glass**: National float glass inventory increased slightly, production hit a four - month low, and production profits declined [17][18]. Metal Futures - **Alumina and Aluminum**: Alumina inventory increased, and global and Chinese aluminum production data were reported [22]. - **Other Metals**: There were supply - demand imbalances in refined lead, nickel, and copper. China's imports of lithium carbonate and alumina changed [22]. - **Lithium Price**: BMI expects higher average prices for lithium carbonate and hydroxide in China in 2025 [23]. - **Futures Policy**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees for lithium carbonate futures [23][24]. Agricultural Futures - **Pork**: The central reserve of frozen pork will have an auction of 6500 tons [28]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased, and China's palm oil import costs rose [29][30][32]. - **Soybeans and Wheat**: US private exporters reported sales of soybeans and wheat to China [33]. - **Sugarcane**: Thailand expects its 2025/26 sugarcane crushing volume to exceed 93 million tons [34]. - **Tariffs**: Trump modified tariffs on some Brazilian agricultural products [34]. Financial Markets Stocks - **A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, with solid - state battery and photovoltaic concept stocks dropping, and banks rising [36]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.02%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.58% [38]. - **IPO**: Moore Threads' IPO price was set at 114.28 yuan per share [39]. - **Corporate News**: NetEase's Q3 net income increased 8.2% [40]. Industries - **Digital Economy**: Guangdong aims to have the digital economy core industry's added - value account for over 16% of GDP by 2027 [41]. - **Battery Industry**: The battery industry is promoting anti - cut - throat competition [43]. - **Semiconductor**: China's chip design industry is expected to grow 29.4% in 2025 [43]. - **Salt Lake**: Qinghai will strengthen salt lake resource management [43]. - **Mobile Phones**: China's mobile phone shipments in September increased 10.1% year - on - year [44]. Overseas Markets - **US Economy**: US September non - farm payrolls increased, but unemployment rose. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is low [45]. - **US Policy**: Trump may delay semiconductor tariffs and will launch an AI plan [45]. - **US Real Estate**: US existing home sales in October increased 1.2% [46]. International Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: The three major US stock indexes fell, with Cisco and Boeing leading the decline [48]. - **European Stocks**: European stock indexes rose, driven by risk sentiment and corporate profit expectations [48]. - **Investment Advice**: It's not a good time to short large - cap tech stocks, and the S&P 500 is expected to rise [48][49]. - **Stock Exchange**: Singapore and Nasdaq will launch a "Global Listing Board" in mid - 2026 [49]. - **Corporate Earnings**: Walmart's Q3 revenue increased, and it will move its listing to Nasdaq [49]. Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees for lithium carbonate futures [51]. - **Precious Metals**: International precious metals futures fell due to a stronger dollar and reduced rate - cut expectations [52]. - **Oil Warning**: Saudi Aramco warned of future oil supply shortages [52]. Bonds - **Domestic Bonds**: The domestic bond market was volatile, and the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [54]. - **Central Bank Bills**: The central bank will issue 45 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong on November 24 [54]. - **US Bonds**: US Treasury yields fell across the board [54]. Foreign Exchange - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the RMB's global payment ranking was sixth in October [55][56]. - **Dollar Index**: The dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [56]. - **Yen**: The yen against the dollar reached its weakest level since January, and the Japanese government expressed concern [58]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: A series of economic data such as Japan's CPI, UK's retail sales, and US PMI are to be released [60]. - **Events**: Fed, ECB, and other central bank officials will make speeches, and there are important conferences and exhibitions [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China's new LPR remains stable for the sixth consecutive month, and there is still a possibility of a downward adjustment in the future [2] - The phosphate iron lithium industry is promoting anti - involution, with the association providing cost reference and regular disclosure [2] - US employment and unemployment data show a complex situation, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December is low [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusts trading fees and position limits for lithium carbonate futures [3] - Rebar production and apparent demand increase, while inventories continue to decline [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - China's new 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR are reported at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, remaining stable for six consecutive months, and there may be a downward adjustment [2] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will guide the phosphate iron lithium industry to avoid low - price dumping [2] - US September non - farm payrolls increase, but previous data are revised down, and the unemployment rate rises [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusts trading fees and position limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts [3] - Rebar production increases by 3.98% this week, and total inventory decreases by 22.83 tons [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, Shanghai copper, industrial silicon, asphalt, PP [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials up 3.34%, precious metals up 29.29%, etc. [4] Plate Position - Shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index has a daily decline of 0.40%, a monthly decline of 0.60%, and an annual increase of 17.28%, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures have a daily increase of 0.06%, a monthly decline of 0.18%, and an annual decline of 0.40%, etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index has a daily decline of 0.54%, a monthly decline of 1.63%, and an annual increase of 0.30%, etc. [6] - Other: The US dollar index has a daily increase of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.49%, and an annual decline of 7.62%, etc. [6]