Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the overnight night - market, domestic futures showed a positive trend overall, while international oil prices declined slightly, and other commodities had mixed performances. In the financial market, A - share listed companies' performance was differentiated, and the brokerage industry had good performance. The domestic industrial product futures prices were rebounding, and the scale of bond ETFs reached a new high. [2][3][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures contracts closed higher on Friday night. Soda ash and glass rose over 4%, coking coal rose over 3%, and several other commodities like PVC and caustic soda rose over 2%. However, soybeans and cotton declined slightly. [2] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.30% to $3355.50 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 0.25%; COMEX silver futures rose 0.32% to $38.43 per ounce. [2] - International oil prices: WTI crude futures fell 0.30% to $66.03 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 3.54%; Brent crude futures fell 0.42% to $69.23 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.61%. [3] - London base metals: All London base metals closed higher. LME zinc rose 3.18% and 3.12% weekly; LME aluminum rose 2.33% and 1.34% weekly. [4] - International agricultural products: Most international agricultural product futures rose. US soybeans rose 0.56%, US corn rose 1.74%, US soybean oil fell 0.75%, US soybean meal rose 1.97%, and US wheat rose 2.53%. [5] Important News Macroeconomic News - Trump criticized the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, believing it was harming the real estate market. He thought the US should have a 1% interest rate. [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries. [8] - Shipping indices declined. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 86.39 points, and the China Containerized Freight Index fell 0.8%. [8] - The US - China economic and trade relationship has experienced ups and downs, but both sides are still important trading partners, and cooperation is the right path. [9] - The government will regulate the new - energy vehicle industry competition order. [9] - The July auto market demand weakened, and the expected monthly sales of passenger cars were about 1.9 million. [11] - The US and the EU have disputes over tariffs, and the EU is preparing a retaliatory plan. [11] - Iran will hold a new round of negotiations with three European countries. [12] - The third - round Russia - Ukraine negotiation will be held in Istanbul. [13] - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors emphasized the importance of central bank independence and the challenges faced by the global economy. [16] - China will crack down on the smuggling of strategic minerals. [17] Energy and Chemical Futures - The EU extended the natural - gas storage requirement for two more years. [19] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the delivery area and premium/discount for propylene futures. [21] - Methanol inventory in East China ports increased, and rubber inventory in Osaka Exchange decreased. [22] - The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting the banking, energy, and military - industrial sectors. [23] Metal Futures - Mining activities in Myanmar's Wa State are expected to resume. [25] - The average price of polysilicon was 46.2 yuan/kg, with a profit of 6.1 yuan/kg. [26] - Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. [27] - A nickel - iron smelting park in Indonesia suspended production, which may affect the monthly output by about 1900 metal tons. [29] Black - Series Futures - A coal mine in Changzhi restarted production but has not reached full capacity. [31] - Canada will adjust its steel import tariff policy, which China opposes. [31] - Coal mines in Lvliang stopped or reduced production due to environmental inspections and production problems. [31] - The China Iron and Steel Association proposed measures to prevent over - capacity. [32] - Steel inventories increased, with an increase in construction steel and a decrease in hot - rolled coils. [32] Agricultural Product Futures - Imported cotton inventory decreased. [35] - Oil - mill soybean crushing volume was lower than expected. [35] - Australia may export experimental rapeseed to China. [35] - Pig - farming profits changed, with self - breeding and self - raising still profitable but at a lower level, and purchasing piglets resulting in losses. [35] - Sugar prices remained high in Pakistan. [35] - Trichlorosucrose producers had extended shutdowns. [36] - Malaysian palm - oil exports decreased in July. [37] Financial Market Finance - Among the 1540 A - share listed companies that disclosed semi - annual performance forecasts, 43.77% were positive, and the performance was differentiated. [40] - All 29 listed securities firms that disclosed semi - annual performance forecasts were positive, mainly due to the improvement of core business income and the recovery of overseas business. [40] - CITIC Securities believes that A - shares are becoming an incremental market, and post - mid - report season overseas investment may be a new direction. [40] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the A - share market's structural differentiation will continue, and new tracks are crucial. [41] Industry - The Third China International Supply - Chain Promotion Expo was successful, with more participants and cooperation agreements. [42] - The Beijing real - estate market had an uneven recovery in the first half of 2025. [43] Overseas - The US Treasury Secretary advised Trump not to fire the Fed Chairman. [45] - Japan's ruling coalition lost its majority in the Senate. [45] - Russia and Ukraine may hold a new round of negotiations in Istanbul. [45] International Stock Market - The next two weeks are the peak period for US stock earnings reports. [46] - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun has been reducing his holdings of NVIDIA stocks, with a cumulative套现 of $215 million since June 20. [46][47] Commodity - Domestic industrial product futures prices are rebounding, and they are expected to continue the upward trend, but there are risks of adjustment after rapid price increases. [48] Bond - The scale of the first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs has grown significantly, and the total scale of bond ETFs may have exceeded 5000 billion yuan. [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on asphalt, suggesting a strategy of buying the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Core Viewpoint - Due to factors such as the continued recovery of asphalt production, approaching peak season, recent rise in crude oil prices, and the expectation of increased demand, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South. National asphalt shipments decreased by 4.67% to 249,000 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to rise slightly this week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - Geopolitical and market factors: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but the US has imposed new sanctions on Iran. Global trade war concerns have subsided somewhat, but the threat remains. Crude oil prices have risen recently. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.74% to 3,655 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,629 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,665 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,364 to 228,073 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 175 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Sinochem Quanzhou has intermittent production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared to January - April 2025. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, an improvement from - 0.4% in January - May. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, a decline from 5.6% in January - May [4] - Downstream operating rates: As of the week ending July 18, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1][4] - Fiscal policy and social financing: The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 900.8 billion yuan. New government bonds were 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, and new loans were 2.36 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 171 billion yuan [4] Inventory - As of the week ending July 18, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.1 percentage points to 17.0% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents the weekly data of iron ore inventory and related indicators, including downstream profitability, port inventory, steel mill inventory, consumption, arrival volume, domestic iron ore concentrate production, and steel mill operating rates. It shows the changes in these indicators compared to the previous week. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Downstream Profitability - The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17% this week, a decrease of 4.00 percentage points from the previous week [2]. Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: Reached 13,785.21 this week, an increase of 19.32 compared to the previous week [2]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory**: Stood at 8,822.16 this week, a decrease of 157.48 from the previous week [2]. - **Port Inventory by Variety**: - **Coarse Powder**: 10,690.06 this week, an increase of 61.93 from the previous week [2]. - **Lump Ore**: 1,595.25 this week, an increase of 70.39 from the previous week [2]. - **Pellets**: 419.35 this week, a decrease of 31.17 from the previous week [2]. - **Iron Concentrate**: 1,080.55 this week, a decrease of 81.83 from the previous week [2]. - **Trading Ore**: 9,054.54 this week, a decrease of 58.36 from the previous week [2]. - **Brazilian Ore**: 4,836.23 this week, a decrease of 58 from the previous week [2]. - **Australian Ore**: 6,117.82 this week, an increase of 74 from the previous week [2]. Supply and Demand Data - **Daily Average Port Clearance Volume**: 322.74 this week, an increase of 3.23 from the previous week [2]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: 301.25 this week, an increase of 2.76 from the previous week [2]. - **Arrival Volume**: 2,662.1 this week, an increase of 178.20 from the previous week [2]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Production**: 40.25 this week, an increase of 0.55 from the previous week [2]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: 242.44 this week, an increase of 2.63 from the previous week [2]. - **Steel Mill Operating Rate**: 83.46% this week, an increase of 0.31 percentage points from the previous week [2]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: 90.89% this week, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from the previous week [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of crude oil, PVC,沪铜, urea, asphalt, PP, plastic,豆油,豆粕,焦煤,螺纹钢, and热卷 are expected to show different trends. Crude oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the near term; PVC is expected to be in a low - level oscillation;沪铜 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillation; asphalt is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices; PP and plastic are expected to be in low - level oscillations;豆油's basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation;豆粕 is expected to be strong in the short term;焦煤 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term;螺纹钢 is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend;热卷 is expected to run in an interval oscillation [3][6][11][14][15][17][18][20][22][23][25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and concerns about supply disruptions have eased. However, the subsequent development of the situation needs attention [3] - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories are at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations [3] - Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, exceeding expectations. OPEC + is discussing suspending further production increases from October [3] - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, and the market has reflected the accelerated production increase of OPEC +. The IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025 [3] - Concerns about trade negotiations and sanctions policies need attention, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [3][5] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide has increased in some areas, and the PVC operating rate has increased, but downstream operating rates are low, and procurement is cautious [6] - India has postponed the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventories continue to increase, and the real estate market is still in adjustment [6] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [6] 沪铜 - The Fed's possible interest rate cut has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous market. Copper smelting processing fees have stopped falling and stabilized, and copper supply expectations have improved [11] - Electrolytic copper consumption has increased, but downstream procurement sentiment is weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, and the spot premium has strengthened [11] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [11] Carbonate Lithium - The price has risen due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on the fundamentals is small. Supply has increased, and inventories have continued to accumulate [12] - The price of spodumene has increased, providing cost support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the new energy vehicle market has shown an upward trend [12][13] - The futures price is far higher than the spot price, and the market is dominated by sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, a correction is expected [13] Urea - The upstream has lowered prices to attract orders, and the downstream has replenished inventory at low prices, with good market transactions. This week's production has decreased, and next week's production is expected to increase [14] - Northern agricultural demand is coming to an end, and compound fertilizer factories' demand has increased slightly. Inventories have continued to decrease, but the rate has slowed down [14] - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [14] Asphalt - The operating rate has increased but is still at a low level. July's production is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates have fluctuated, and shipments have decreased [15] - Inventories have increased slightly, and terminal project funds are restricted. Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and crude oil prices have risen [15][16] - It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [16] PP - The downstream operating rate has decreased, and US tariffs and import restrictions have affected the industry. Some overhaul devices have restarted, and the enterprise operating rate has increased [17] - Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand recovery is slow [17] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [17] Plastic - The operating rate has remained stable, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. US tariffs and import restrictions have an impact, but the cancellation of US ethane restrictions is beneficial [18] - New production capacity has been put into operation, and some overhaul devices have restarted. The off - season demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high [18][19] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [19] 豆油 - The price has risen, and if it breaks through the key resistance level, there may be room for further increase. The domestic oil mill operating rate and crushing volume are high, and the US soybean production outlook is optimistic [20] - International oil prices have risen, which may boost the demand for vegetable oils. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending may push up the price of palm oil and indirectly affect 豆油 [20] - The basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather changes [20] 豆粕 - The price has risen strongly, breaking through the 3000 mark. The US soybean crop conditions have improved, and domestic inventories are high, but there is a large gap in fourth - quarter import orders [21][22] - Consumption demand has increased, but the adjustment of the aquaculture industry and high - temperature weather may reduce demand [22] - The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter soybean procurement progress and the adjustment of the aquaculture industry [22] 焦煤 - The price has risen. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, and production at mines and coal - washing plants has increased. Mine inventories have decreased, and downstream inventories have increased [23] - The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round increase. Downstream demand is strong, and steel mill profits have increased [23] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal customs clearance and Indonesian export taxes [23] 螺纹钢 - The price has shown a "strong oscillation and then a decline" trend. Supply and demand have both weakened, with production and apparent demand decreasing. However, the profit per ton of steel is good, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored [25] - Demand has continued to weaken seasonally, and engineering funds are at a low level. Inventories are at a low level, and the contradiction is not prominent. Policy expectations and raw material strength provide cost support [25] - The price is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend, but attention should be paid to the possible correction of macro - optimistic expectations [25] 热卷 - The price has shown a "rising and then oscillating" trend. Production has increased marginally, but there may be a decline in the future. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and export has improved marginally, but there are still risks [26][27] - Inventories have decreased slowly, and there is a risk of passive inventory accumulation in the off - season. The price is under pressure but also has strong support [27] - The price is expected to run in an interval oscillation, with an upper pressure of 3350 yuan/ton [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Urea domestic demand is weak, and exports support the upward movement of the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the market is waiting for new drivers. Attention should be paid to news - related disturbances [1][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and moved high today, with a slight decline in the afternoon and a small gain. Upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers replenished at low prices, resulting in good market transactions. This week's urea production declined, but next week, most factories will resume production, and production will increase month - on - month. Northern agricultural demand is near the end, with sporadic purchases. After compound fertilizer factories started autumn fertilizer production, the operating load increased slightly. Currently, compound fertilizer factories have taken 30% of nitrogen fertilizer, and there is still an expectation of further purchases. However, due to the dominance of advance payments, the finished - product inventory in factories has increased, and the demand for urea has strong elasticity and limited support. Inventory continued to decline this period, mainly due to regional agricultural demand and export orders, but the decline rate has slowed down [1][11] Futures Market - The main 2509 contract of urea opened at 1750 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. The trading volume was 188,727 lots, a decrease of 9,285 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 3,019 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,273 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 1,437 lots, and Zheshang Futures' net long positions decreased by 519 lots. CITIC Futures' net short positions increased by 1,642 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net short positions increased by 3,271 lots. On July 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,523, a decrease of 107 from the previous trading day, all from Anhui Zhongneng [2] Spot Market - After downstream buyers purchased at low prices and factories lowered prices to attract orders, the order - receiving situation was fair. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1730 - 1770 yuan/ton, with a few factories quoting slightly higher [3] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, today's mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. On July 18, 2025, the national daily urea production was 197,400 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 84.03% [7][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The controversy within the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased this week, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and moved high with a strong intraday oscillation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expected tight supply of copper may improve. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is weak overall, except for the bright refrigerator production and sales data. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened intraday, closing at 77,840. The long positions of the top 20 were 103,634 lots, a decrease of 4,798 lots; the short positions were 102,315 lots, a decrease of 1,478 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On July 17, 2025, the LME official price was 9,620 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 34.5 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of July 11, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.32 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of July 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a slight increase of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 241,800 short tons, an increase of 2,379 short tons from the previous period [8]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/07/18 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价强势上扬，美油主力合约收涨 1.72%，报 66.31 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 1.55%，报 69.58 美元/桶。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.41%报 3345.40 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.83%报 38.44 美元/盎司。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线上涨，LME 期锌涨 0.98%报 2737.50 美元/吨，LME 期 锡涨 0.83%报 33070.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 0.45%报 9678.00 美元/吨。 4. 国内期货主力合约大面积飘红。焦煤涨超 3%，橡胶、20 号胶、焦炭涨超 2%， 铁矿石、PX、丁二烯橡胶、热卷、玻璃涨超 1%；跌幅方面，低硫燃料油（LU） 小幅下跌。 5. 美大豆收涨 0.86%，报 1022 美分/蒲式耳，美玉米收跌 0.86%，报 402 美分/ 蒲式耳，美豆油收涨 2.59%，报 56 美分/磅，美豆粕收 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market has reflected OPEC+'s accelerated production increase, and the IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025. Considering the downstream peak season, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the near term [10]. - As asphalt gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. - Given the high inventory and weak demand, it is expected that PP will fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [13]. - Due to high inventory and slow downstream recovery, it is expected that plastics will fluctuate at a low level in the near term. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15]. - PVC is under great pressure before the demand is substantially improved. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near term [17]. - Domestic soybean oil is under supply pressure and weak demand, and its price is expected to remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the final bio - fuel obligation volume [18]. - Although the domestic soybean meal inventory is high, there may be a large gap in the supply of imported soybeans in the long term. It is expected that the price of domestic soybean meal may rise. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and Sino - US trade negotiations [20]. - Under the weak balance of supply and demand and the increasing policy expectations, it is expected that rebar will fluctuate strongly in the short term [21]. - It is expected that hot - rolled coils will mainly fluctuate in a range in the short term [23]. - It is expected that coking coal will mainly fluctuate in the short term [24]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of news [26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Varieties Carbonate Lithium - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium remained flat compared with the previous trading day. The supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. The cost side supports the upward trend. Affected by the futures market and policies, the market sentiment has risen, but the futures price deviates from the fundamentals. Although it maintains a strong pattern, there is a risk of decline [3]. Copper - The copper price was supported by the expected weakening of the US dollar. The supply shortage expectation has been alleviated, and the demand of downstream industries is weak, except for the new energy industry. After the cooling of the sentiment of arbitrageurs rushing to the US, the inventory in other regions has increased, which puts pressure on the copper price. The 50% copper tariff in the US may cause the market to decline further [5]. Futures Market Overview - As of July 15, domestic futures contracts showed mixed trends. Polysilicon and logs rose significantly, while container shipping to Europe and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In terms of capital flow, some stock index futures contracts had capital inflows, while some metal futures contracts had capital outflows [7]. Crude Oil - The tension in the Middle East has eased, but attention should be paid to subsequent developments. The US crude oil inventory has decreased, but the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will increase production in August, and is considering suspending further production increases from October. OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast. Considering the peak consumption season and the threat of US sanctions on Russia, it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate strongly in the near term [10]. Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to increase in July. The downstream construction rate has mostly declined, and the inventory is at a low level. Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the global trade war, the increase in crude oil prices is limited. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. PP - The downstream construction rate of PP has declined, and the enterprise construction rate has decreased. The inventory is at a high level. Affected by the global trade war and the situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price has fluctuated. Considering the new production capacity and slow downstream recovery, it is expected that PP will fluctuate at a low level [13]. Plastic - The plastic construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate is at a low level. The inventory is at a high level. The US - China trade situation has both positive and negative impacts. Considering the new production capacity and slow downstream recovery, it is expected that plastics will fluctuate at a low level in the near term [15]. PVC - The PVC construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate is low. The inventory is high. The export is restricted, and the demand in the real estate industry is weak. With new production capacity coming online and weak demand, it is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near term [16][17]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil price has shown a strong range - bound trend. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the production of biodiesel may support the demand, the decline in international crude oil prices may reduce the demand for soybean oil as a bio - fuel. It is expected that the domestic soybean oil price will remain under pressure [18]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal price has shown an upward trend. The supply is abundant, and the domestic inventory is high. However, there may be a large gap in the supply of imported soybeans in the long term, and the market speculation may drive up the price. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and Sino - US trade negotiations [20]. Rebar - The rebar price has rebounded. The supply reduction is limited, the demand shows regional differentiation, the inventory pressure is controllable, and the policy expectation is increasing. Considering the cost support, it is expected that the rebar will fluctuate strongly in the short term [21]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil price has rebounded. The supply is resilient, the demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the inventory is increasing. Although the cost provides support, the actual impact of policies needs time to verify. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil will mainly fluctuate in a range in the short term [23]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price has fluctuated. The supply will increase with the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance, but the second - round price increase expectation supports the market. The downstream steel mill profit is good, and the iron water production is still high. It is expected that the coking coal will mainly fluctuate in the short term [24]. Urea - The urea price has shown a weak upward trend. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, but the decline rate has slowed down. It is expected that the urea will fluctuate weakly in the short term [26].

板块表现 重点关注 尿素、沪铜、PP、螺纹钢、豆粕 夜盘表现 非金属建材, 2.93% 贵金属, 28.59% 油脂油料, 12.43% 有色 软商品, 2.92% , 18.43% 煤焦钢矿, 14.61% 能源, 3.23% 化工, 12.77% 谷物, 1.26% 农副产品, 2.83% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% -2.50% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 热点资讯 1、国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作；听取规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序 情况的汇报；听取关于2024年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支审计查出问题初步整改情况的汇报；审议通过《国务院关于修改 < 中华人民共和国外国人入境出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, but uncertainties remain in the post - ceasefire situation [1] - The market has factored in OPEC+'s accelerated production increase, and the IEA has raised the forecast of global crude oil surplus in 2025, yet the market is tight during the peak season [1] - Considering the peak consumption season and potential threats to Russian oil supply, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [1] Summary by Related Content Strategy Analysis - Suggest a strategy of buying on dips [1] - The retaliatory action by Iran and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down geopolitical risks, but issues such as the cease - fire implementation, Iran's nuclear materials, and US sanctions on Iran's oil exports need attention [1] - Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude oil inventories at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased [1] - OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, and is discussing a pause in further production increases from October [1] - OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years, indicating less optimism about future demand [1] - Trump has postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1st, and attention should be paid to US trade negotiations [1] - The US sanctions on Russia pose a threat to Russian oil supply, and combined with the peak season in the downstream, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.08% to 516.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 509.1 yuan/ton and a high of 520.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2032 to 12,929 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA has lowered the forecast of US crude oil production in 2025 by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the forecast of global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 [3] - IEA has lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - OPEC has maintained the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - US EIA data shows that crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 11 [3] Supply - side and Demand - side - OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day, and production in June 2025 increased by 219,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 11 [4] - US crude oil product supply decreased, with gasoline and diesel demand decreasing on a weekly basis [4]