1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips or implementing a 09 - 01 reverse spread. Although there are issues such as high inventory and low - season demand in the plastics industry, the upcoming release of a new round of stability - growth work plans for key industries and the elimination of old and backward devices are expected to improve market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 24, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high. The coal price has risen significantly due to production checks. With new capacity coming on - stream and restart of some devices, the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. Considering the upcoming policies and market sentiment improvement, it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated upward with a decrease in positions, closing at 7385 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 16,764 lots to 371,617 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 30 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 7160 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9280 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7620 - 8250 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On July 24, the number of overhaul devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of July 18, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%. The agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 15,000 tons to 750,000 tons, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high [4] - Raw Materials: Brent crude oil's October contract oscillated around $68/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $830/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 24 日 热点品种 焦煤： 焦煤今日高开低走，日内拉涨，触及涨停。现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价 格报价 1110 元/吨，较上个交易日+20 元/吨；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 907 元/吨， 较上个交易日+7 元/吨。基本面来看，6 月份焦煤进口数量环比增加，较上月增 加 172.15 万吨，其中蒙煤进口增加 36 万吨。矿山日产增加而洗煤厂日产下降， 国家能源局拟于近期在重点产煤省(区)组织开展煤矿生产情况核查工作的消息 持续发酵，本期洗煤厂开工数与产量均有下降，安全月检查与煤矿核查工作同时 进行，预计供应端将环比缩量。库存端，焦煤库存向下传导，矿山库存去化，钢 厂及独立焦企焦煤库存增加，焦煤交投情绪积极。焦炭三轮提涨落地，四轮提涨 将于下周一继续，下游钢厂盈利尚可，上周铁水产量转为上涨，下游需求提振煤 炭价格。7 月 19 日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工，项目总投资约 1.2 万 亿，投资规模是三峡水电站的 5 倍，建设周期约 20 ...

2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.34%报 3397.50 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.09%报 39.52 美元/盎司。 3. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油主力合约收涨 0.17%，报 65.42 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.10%，报 68.66 美元/桶。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数上涨，LME 期锡涨 2.48%报 34750.00 美元/吨，LME 期 铅涨 0.87%报 2028.50 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 0.14%报 9933.50 美元/吨。 5. 国际农产品期货多数下跌，美大豆跌 0.30%，美玉米跌 0.06%，美豆油涨 0.87%，美豆粕跌 0.61%，美小麦跌 1.55%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/7/24 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周三夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，焦煤涨超 4%，沪锡、甲醇涨超 1%。跌幅方面，氧化铝、豆粕、纯碱、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve the institutional mechanism for the coordinated development of state - owned and private enterprises to enhance economic vitality and industrial competitiveness [2] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.65 billion kilowatts, with significant growth in solar and wind power, while the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased [2] - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden from July 27th to 30th to hold economic and trade talks with the US, aiming to continue consultations on economic and trade issues [3] Section Summaries Hot News - On July 23rd, the National Development and Reform Commission held a corporate symposium on the coordinated development of state - owned and private enterprises [2] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, solar power was 1.1 billion kilowatts, and wind power was 0.57 billion kilowatts [2] - He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [3] - Trump's claim that reducing short - term interest rates would save $1 trillion in annual interest expenses is unlikely to be true [3] - US House Speaker Johnson is disappointed with Fed Chairman Powell, and he is unclear about the legal power to remove the Fed Chairman [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: Coking coal, soda ash, coke, methanol, pulp [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.55%, precious metals 29.66%, oilseeds 12.09%, etc. [4] Plate Positions - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, but specific data are not summarized here [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% daily, 4.00% monthly, and 6.88% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.62% daily, 6.09% monthly, and 27.31% annually, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.11% daily, 0.34% monthly, and 0.37% annually [6] - Commodity: The CRB commodity index rose 0.02% daily, 2.21% monthly, and 2.40% annually; London spot gold fell 1.30% daily, rose 2.56% monthly, and 29.06% annually [6] - Others: The US dollar index fell 0.15% daily, rose 0.45% monthly, and fell 10.40% annually; the CBOE volatility index was flat daily, fell 1.37% monthly, and 4.90% annually [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 23 日 热点品种 焦煤： 焦煤今日高开高走，日内偏强震荡，触及涨停。现货方面，山西市场（介休）主 流价格报价 1080 元/吨，较上个交易日持平；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 900 元/吨， 较上个交易日+50 元/吨。基本面来看，6 月份焦煤进口数量环比增加，较上月增 加 172.15 万吨，其中蒙煤进口增加 36 万吨。国家能源局拟于近期在重点产煤省 (区)组织开展煤矿生产情况核查工作的消息持续发酵，本期洗煤厂开工数与产量 均有下降，安全月检查与煤矿核查工作同时进行，预计供应端将环比缩量。库存 端，焦煤库存向下传导，矿山库存去化，钢厂及独立焦企焦煤库存增加，焦煤交 投情绪积极。焦炭二轮提涨，下游钢厂盈利尚可，上周铁水产量转为上涨，下游 需求提振煤炭价格。7 月 19 日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工，项目总投 资约 1.2 万亿，投资规模是三峡水电站的 5 倍，建设周期约 20 年。整体来说， 反内卷举措持续加码，近日国家能源局开启煤矿核查 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity market experienced a rare daily limit surge on Tuesday, with the main contracts of six varieties, including glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, closing at the daily limit. The core driving force for this rally is the continuous release of the "anti-involution" policy signal by the state, combined with the coal mine production inspection notice circulated on the same day, which triggered expectations of supply tightening [2][46]. - The international precious metal futures generally closed higher, while international oil prices slightly declined. London's base metals mostly rose, and international agricultural product futures showed mixed performance [3][4][5]. - In the financial market, A-shares continued to rise, and the Hong Kong stock market also showed an upward trend. The science and technology innovation board celebrated its 6th anniversary, and Central Huijin increased its holdings of ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter [30]. - Overseas, there are various events and statements, including trade negotiations, comments on the Federal Reserve's policies and personnel, and corporate financial reports [10][11][43]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic commodity market: Six varieties' main contracts closed at the daily limit, and the black series continued to rise at night, with coking coal up 11% and coke up 5.29% [2]. - International precious metal futures: COMEX gold futures rose 1.10% to $3444.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices: WTI crude oil main contract fell 0.76% to $65.45 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.66% to $68.75 per barrel [4]. - London base metals: Most rose, with LME zinc up 0.53%, LME copper up 0.39%, LME tin up 0.32%, and LME aluminum up 0.21% [4]. - International agricultural product futures: Mixed performance, with US soybeans down 0.17%, US corn down 1.18%, US soybean oil down 0.59%, US soybean meal up 1.13%, and US wheat up 1.34% [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The "Regulations on Rural Highways" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high-quality development of rural highways [8]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [8]. - The current market has no obvious unilateral expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and market transactions are rational and orderly [9]. - There are various international events and statements, including trade negotiations, comments on the Federal Reserve's policies and personnel [10][11][12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The next round of China-US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil [15]. - As of the week of July 21, the social inventory of domestic asphalt increased by 0.3%, and the factory inventory decreased by 2.6% [15]. Metal Futures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will support the stable operation and high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry [17][18]. - China's alumina exports in June 2025 decreased by 17.71% month-on-month but increased by 8.95% year-on-year [18]. - In May 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons, and from January to May, the surplus was 272,000 tons [18]. Black Series Futures - Some steel mills plan to raise the price of wet-quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on July 23 [20]. - The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China increased by 722,500 tons compared with last Monday [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Russia reduced its wheat production and export volume forecasts for 2025 [22]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 remained high, but the inventory reached an 18-month high [23]. - It is expected that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [23]. - Various other agricultural product data, including soybean, pig, and sugar production and trade information [25][26][28]. Financial Market Finance - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.62% to 3581.86 points, and the market turnover expanding to 1.93 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.54% to 25,130.03 points, and the southbound capital had a net inflow of HK$2.717 billion [30]. - The science and technology innovation board celebrated its 6th anniversary, with 589 companies listed, raising a total of 925.7 billion yuan in IPOs and 186.7 billion yuan in refinancing [30]. - Central Huijin increased its holdings of ETFs by over 200 billion yuan in the second quarter [32]. - Overseas institutions mainly surveyed companies in the electronics, machinery, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries in July [32]. - Zhongyou Insurance triggered a mandatory tender offer by buying 726,000 shares of Green Power Environmental Protection H shares [32]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange took regulatory measures against abnormal trading behavior in *ST Yazhen [32]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company will launch the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Private Enterprise Index and the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Private Enterprise Strategy Index on July 23 [33]. - SenseTime plans to enter the field of embodied intelligence [33]. Industry - The National Data Administration has guided the construction of data annotation bases in 7 cities and plans to layout data industry agglomeration areas in the second half of the year [34]. - 127 domestic games and 7 imported games obtained game licenses in July [36]. - The game "Late Ming: Feather of the Abyss" topped the Steam bestseller list [36]. - The news of "Beijing banning fuel vehicles from ride-hailing platforms" was false [36]. - China's shipbuilding industry maintained its global leading position in the first half of the year [36]. - Telecommunication business revenue in the first half of the year was 905.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1% [37]. Overseas - Trump called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and said that Fed Chairman Powell would leave office soon [38]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that tariff revenue was "huge" and supported Powell to complete his term [38]. - Various international events, including trade negotiations, policy statements, and corporate financial reports [38][40][43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising 0.4%, the S&P 500 rising 0.06%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.39% [43]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX falling 1.09%, the French CAC40 falling 0.69%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising 0.12% [43]. - Coca-Cola's second-quarter adjusted revenue and earnings per share were better than expected [43]. - General Motors' second-quarter revenue and net profit declined [44]. - Lockheed Martin's second-quarter net sales and operating profit were lower than expected, and it lowered its full-year earnings per share forecast [45]. Commodities - Similar to the overnight night market trends, the domestic commodity market had a daily limit surge, and international precious metal, oil, and base metal futures showed different performances [2][3][4][46]. - Russia maintained its forecast for grain production and export volume [48]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was weak, with treasury bond futures closing down [49]. - As of the end of June, overseas institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan of interbank market bonds, accounting for about 2.5% of the total [50]. - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued a 20 billion yuan panda bond [50]. - Japanese government bond yields attracted record foreign capital inflows [52]. - US bond yields declined across the board [52]. Foreign Exchange - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, and the market had no obvious unilateral expectation [53]. - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose 12 points, and the offshore RMB rose 5 points [54][55]. - The US dollar index fell 0.49%, and most non-US currencies rose [54]. Upcoming Events - There are various events scheduled for July 23, including central bank operations, press conferences, and industry exhibitions [56].

Group 1: Hot News - A so - called "resignation letter of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell" circulated on social media "X", but it was fake. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Pulte believes Powell will resign soon, while the US Treasury Secretary and Trump have different views on his resignation and interest rate cuts [2][3] - In Q2 2025, financial institutions' RMB loans reached 268.56 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year - on - year. RMB real estate loans were 53.33 trillion yuan, up 0.4%. Real estate development loans were 13.81 trillion yuan, up 0.3%, and personal housing loans were 37.74 trillion yuan, down 0.1% [2] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange said the market has no obvious unilateral expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and trading is rational [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, soda ash, coke, industrial silicon, and glass [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.57%, precious metals 29.35%, oilseeds 12.26%, soft commodities 2.90%, non - ferrous metals 19.19%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.73%, energy 3.13%, chemicals 11.92%, grains 1.19%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.75% [4] Group 3: Commodity Futures Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures positions in the past five days for different sectors [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% daily, 3.99% monthly, and 6.86% annually. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index also have different performance [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had negative changes [6] - In the commodity category, CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had different price movements [6] - In other categories, the US dollar index and CBOE volatility also showed specific changes [6] Group 5: Major Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., and also shows the risk premium of some equity indices [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is generally positive due to anti - involution measures and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project. Most commodities are expected to show a bullish trend in the short - term, but there are also risks of price corrections [3][10][12]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics. For example, some commodities face supply contraction expectations, while others have issues such as high inventory or weak demand in the short - term [3][21][23]. Summary by Commodity 1. Coking Coal - Price: Opened high and rose sharply, with an intraday increase of nearly 8%. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 850 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply: In June, coking coal imports increased by 172.15 tons month - on - month, with Mongolian coal imports increasing by 36 tons. Domestic mines are in the process of resuming production after safety inspections, and the inventory is being transferred downstream [3]. - Demand: The second round of coke price increases is expected to be implemented this week. Downstream steel mills are profitable, and iron ore production has started to rise. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project boosts demand [3]. - Outlook: The supply contraction expectation drives up the market, and the hydropower project provides demand support. The long - term trend is bullish, but be cautious of price corrections [3]. 2. Crude Oil - Geopolitical Factors: The weak retaliatory action of Iran and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have alleviated concerns about supply disruptions. However, the subsequent development of the Middle East situation still needs attention [5]. - Supply - demand: Entering the seasonal peak travel season, US crude oil inventories are at a low level. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations [5]. - Price: Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asia in August. The market has priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the IEA has raised the forecast of global crude oil surplus in 2025 [5]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at the lower end of the fluctuation range, and the upside is limited by the actual production increase of OPEC+ [5]. 3. Copper - Policy Impact: The new round of measures to stabilize the growth of the non - ferrous metal industry and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project have a positive impact on the market sentiment [10]. - Supply: The smelting fees have stabilized and rebounded. A smelter's maintenance plan in July has limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects domestic electrolytic copper production to increase by 1.55 tons in July [10]. - Demand: It is in the off - season, and the trading sentiment is weak. The downstream follows the market on a need - to - basis, and the market is waiting and seeing [10]. - Outlook: The anti - involution measures have a small impact on copper, but the market sentiment is bullish. The hydropower project brings optimistic demand prospects, and the dollar has weakened in the past two days. The copper market is bullish, and attention should be paid to the implementation of tariffs [10]. 4. Lithium Carbonate - Price: Opened high and rose nearly 3%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,450 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply: Some production capacities have been shut down or reduced, but the production in June increased by 8% month - on - month and 18% year - on - year. The inventory pressure has been relieved but is still at a high level [12]. - Cost: The price of spodumene has continued to rise, providing cost support [12]. - Outlook: The anti - involution measures and the expected improvement in downstream demand have boosted market sentiment. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term but may correct after the sentiment stabilizes [12]. 5. Asphalt - Supply: The operating rate has continued to recover but is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production in July is 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.0% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [13]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries have fluctuated. The road asphalt operating rate has remained flat at a low level, affected by funds and weather. The national shipment volume has decreased, and the inventory of refineries has increased slightly [13]. - Outlook: As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to buy the spread between the 09 and 12 contracts at a low price [14]. 6. PP - Supply: The new production capacity of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 4 was put into operation in June, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly. The enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard products has decreased [15]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The new orders are limited, and the inventory pressure is still high [15]. - Cost: The coal price has risen sharply due to the coal mine production inspection [15]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at a low price or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [15]. 7. Plastic - Supply: Some maintenance devices have restarted, and the operating rate has increased to around 87%, at a neutral level. The new production capacity of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 2 HDPE has been put into operation [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has increased slightly, but it is still at a low level in recent years. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory pressure is high [16][18]. - Cost: The coal price has risen due to the coal mine production inspection [16]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at a low price or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [18]. 8. PVC - Supply: The operating rate has increased to 77.59%, at a relatively high level in recent years. The new production capacities of Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua have been tested [19]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate is still low compared with previous years, and the procurement is cautious. The export is restricted by policies, and the demand has not improved substantially [19]. - Cost: The coal price has risen due to the coal mine production inspection [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at a low price or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [19]. 9. Soybean Oil - Price: The main 09 contract showed a weak - side fluctuation pattern, with a closing decline of - 0.59%. The trading volume was in a narrow range, and the long - position funds left the market [21]. - Supply: The weekly output of soybean oil in the crushing plant increased by 0.44% week - on - week, and the weather forecast shows that the rainfall in the US Midwest will help relieve the high - temperature impact on crops [21]. - Demand: It is in the seasonal off - season, and the market shows a situation of low trading volume. The follow - up US biofuel policy may boost demand [21]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased by 5.58% week - on - week and 22.24% this month, with great inventory accumulation pressure [21]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern is loose in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The biofuel policy and the change of season may support the market, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the biofuel policy and inventory changes [21]. 10. Soybean Meal - Price: The main 09 contract showed an upward trend, with a closing increase of 0.88%. The trading volume was in a narrow range, and the technical indicators showed a short - term equilibrium of long and short forces [22]. - Supply: The rainfall in the US Midwest will relieve the soybean supply pressure. The domestic crushing volume has decreased slightly but is still at a high level, and the supply is sufficient [22][23]. - Demand: The low - price soybean meal is cost - effective in July, and the demand from feed enterprises is strong. The biofuel policy may boost the price [23]. - Inventory: The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the physical inventory of downstream feed enterprises is close to saturation, and the subsequent pick - up volume is expected to decline [23]. - Outlook: The biofuel policy may boost the price, but the supply is loose and the inventory accumulation is fast, which limits the price increase. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the biofuel policy [23]. 11. Rebar - Price: The main 2510 contract rose by 3.12%. The short - term and long - term trends are bullish, but attention should be paid to the technical correction after over - buying [24]. - Supply: The anti - involution policy promotes industry integration, and the cost support is enhanced. However, the molten iron production is still at a high level, and the supply pressure has not been fully relieved [24]. - Demand: The Yarlung Zangbo River project brings long - term demand expectations, but the short - term procurement has not increased significantly. The anti - dumping policy restricts exports [24]. - Inventory: The social inventory has decreased, but the factory inventory reduction has slowed down, and the terminal orders are mainly for rigid needs [24]. - Outlook: Policy benefits and cost support drive the price up, but the weak demand in the off - season and export pressure are constraints. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 3260 yuan, and pay attention to the procurement progress of the Yarlung Zangbo River project and the inventory replenishment rhythm of steel mills [24][26]. 12. Hot - Rolled Coil - Price: The main 2510 contract rose by 2.84%. The short - term and long - term trends are bullish, but attention should be paid to price fluctuations [27]. - Supply: The anti - involution policy promotes industry integration, and the cost support is enhanced. The overall supply is still at a high level [27]. - Demand: The Yarlung Zangbo River project will stimulate long - term demand, but the short - term demand has not improved as expected [27]. - Inventory: Both social and factory inventories have decreased, and the total inventory has decreased by 10,900 tons. The basis has been quickly repaired [27]. - Outlook: It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 3350 yuan, and pay attention to the procurement progress of the Yarlung Zangbo River project and the inventory replenishment rhythm of steel mills [27]. 13. Urea - Price: The futures price opened high and closed slightly higher. The spot price has risen, but the subsequent increase is expected to narrow [28]. - Supply: The production in the previous week decreased due to device shutdowns, and the production is expected to increase slightly this week. The market has high expectations for capacity reduction [28]. - Demand: The corn top - dressing is coming to an end, and the demand from compound fertilizer factories is elastic and has a short - term resistance to high prices [28][29]. - Inventory: The inventory has continued to decrease, mainly due to export and local agricultural demand [29]. - Outlook: The anti - involution measures have a limited impact on the short - term increase. The domestic demand is weak, but the overall sentiment of commodities is positive. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [29].

【冠通研究】 情绪放缓 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 22 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日盘面高开低走，尾盘小幅收涨。近期市场情绪走强，尿素现货价 格上行，上游工厂收单良好，但内需支撑有限，后续上涨幅度预计缩窄。基本 面来看，上周尿素上游工厂装置多发停产，日产跌至 20 万吨以下，预计本周 起，停产检修装置陆续复产，本周产量将有小幅增加，反内卷举措继续发酵， 尿素老旧装置占比高，市场对去产能预期增加；需求端，玉米追肥已至尾声， 零星补货为主，预计月底前将收尾。复合肥工厂秋季肥生产销售的初级阶段， 开工负荷变动幅度小，目前对原料尿素采购约在三成左右，目前订单以预收款 为主，厂内成品库存大幅累积，对尿素需求弹性大，短期内有高价抵触情绪。 库存继续去化，主要系出口集港，及局域性农需拿货。整体来说，反内卷举措 对尿素老旧装置产能去化的情绪今日有放缓，内需拖累上涨动能不足，行情出 现回调趋势，但大宗商品近期情绪高涨，尿素短期依然震荡偏多。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1820 元/吨高开低走，日内偏强震荡，最终 收于 1817 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌+0.55%，持仓量 191764 手（-41 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that although the domestic anti - involution measures have little impact on copper, the market sentiment is still bullish. The hydropower project brings an optimistic outlook for downstream demand, and the US dollar has weakened in the past two days, so the copper market is bullish. As the tariff implementation date approaches, attention should be paid to the tariff situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 18, the State Council Information Office announced a new round of non - ferrous metal stability and growth plan. On July 19, the hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan and a construction period of about 20 years [1]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.16 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents/pound. The smelting and refining fees of smelters have stabilized and rebounded this week. A smelter has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, with limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in July to increase by 15,500 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37% [1]. - In the international market, the copper transportation and export channels in Peru have resumed. As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, an increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30% compared with the previous month. The downstream is in a relative off - season, with weak trading sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, showing a strong intraday trend, closing at 79,740. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 5,691 to 115,331 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,043 to 113,776 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 10 yuan/ton. On July 21, 2025, the LME official price was 9,843 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 69.5 dollars/ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 28,200 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period. As of July 21, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,100 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,100 tons, a slight decrease of 100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 243,400 short tons, an increase of 1,023 short tons from the previous period [8].