【冠通期货研究报告】 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1300 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1020 元/吨，较上个交易日+17 元/吨。 基差方面：主力合约期货收盘价 1155.5 元/吨，山西介休基差 144.5 元/吨， 较上个交易日+9.5 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 介休主焦煤现货价（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 介休基差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 焦煤日报：下游补库力度继续，盘面偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 【行情分析】 焦煤日内高开高走，日内上涨。供应端，春节临近，国内矿山逐渐开启假 期，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 89.13%，环 比减少 0.2%。原煤日均产量达到 197.82 万吨。本期焦煤矿山库存转为累库， ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 84.19 86.42 -2.23 开工率 71.863 71.620 0.243 产量 78.31 77.17 1.14 产线条数 213 212 1 重质产量 42.11 41.29 0.82 产量 105.6965 105.6965 0 轻质产量 36.2 35.88 0.32 厂内库存 154.42 152.12 2.3 库存 5256.4 5321.58 -65.18 重质库存 71.61 69.67 1.94 库存可用天数 22.8 23.1 -0.3 轻质库存 82.81 82.45 0.36 库存可用天数 12.8 12.61 0.19 产销率 97.06 106.98 -9.92 天然气利润 -155.12 -158.69 3.57 氨碱法毛利 -88.35 -96.3 7.95 石油焦利润 1.07 -1.78 2.85 联产法毛利 -26.5 -40 13.5 煤制气利润 -68.5 -65.11 -3.39 基差 -40 -35 -5 基差 -81 -64 -17 1-5价差 -84 -102 18 1-5价差 -148 -156 8 品 ...

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 17022.26 332.31 9968.59 280.96 2530 39.87 227.98 79 85.47 39.39 1.50 上期 16766.53 310.73 9388.82 281.9 2659.7 40.19 228.1 78.68 85.51 40.69 10.50 周变动 255.73 21.58 579.77 -0.94 -129.70 -0.32 -0.12 0.32 -0.04 -1.3 -9.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 12891.68 2162.11 409.31 1559.16 本期 11245.25 5583.97 7799.19 上期 12609.17 2204.9 406.14 1546.32 上期 11124.84 5628.71 7588.05 周变动 282.51 -42.79 3.17 12.84 周变动 120.41 -44.74 211.14 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The State Council General Office issued a work plan to foster new growth points in service consumption, identifying key service - consumption areas such as transportation, household services, online audio - visual, sojourn, automotive aftermarket, and inbound consumption [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized that "anti - involution" is the main contradiction in the photovoltaic industry's governance and will use various means to promote its healthy development [2] - Trump stated that Putin agreed to a one - week suspension of air strikes on Ukraine, plans to announce the nomination for the next Fed Chair next week, and the US plans to reopen Venezuelan airspace [2] - As of the week ending January 29,螺纹产量 increased by 0.14% to 199.83 million tons, total inventory reached 475.53 million tons with a weekly increase of 23.43 million tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 4.92% to 176.40 million tons [2] - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with central banks net - buying 230 tons in Q4 (a 6% increase from the previous quarter) and 863 tons for the whole year [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The State Council General Office issued a work plan with 12 policy measures in three aspects to boost service consumption, targeting specific key areas [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the need for "anti - involution" and using market - and law - based means for regulation [2] - Trump made statements about the Ukraine situation, Fed Chair nomination, and Venezuelan airspace [2] - Steel data shows changes in production, inventory, and demand for rebar as of January 29 [2] - The World Gold Council reported record - high global gold demand in 2025 and significant central - bank gold purchases [2] Key Focus - The report focuses on urea, synthetic rubber, polysilicon, crude oil, and PP [3] Night - session Performance - Different commodity sectors had various night - session performance, with the precious metals sector having a 39.21% increase, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 26.56%, and the coal - coke - steel - ore sector with 7.90% [3] Plate Position - The chart shows the changes in the positions of different commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and annual returns. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.16%, a monthly increase of 4.77%, and an annual increase of 4.77% [5] Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/1/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32%报 5410.80 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98%报 115.78 美元/盎司。美联储政策分歧、美国政府停摆 风险及伊朗军事演习加剧市场避险情绪，叠加特朗普降息呼吁与新任主席宽 ...

执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1790 1770 20 河南 1770 1760 10 山东 1780 1760 20 山西 1630 1620 10 江苏 1790 1780 10 安徽 1780 1770 10 黑龙江 1780 1780 0 内蒙古 1790 1790 0 河北东光 1770 1760 10 山东华鲁 1760 1740 20 江苏灵谷 1810 1800 10 安徽昊源 1740 1730 10 山东05基差 -30 -41 11 山东01基差 -8 -19 11 河北05基差 -20 -21 1 河北01基差 2 1 1 1-5价差 24 22 2 5-9价差 22 22 0 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 12699 12699 0 中东FOB 426 426 0 美湾FOB 423.5 423.5 0 埃及FOB 462.5 462.5 0 波罗的海FOB 405 405 0 巴西CFR 432.5 432.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 仓单 免 ...

油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 豆粕：ANEC：2026 年 1 月份巴西大豆出口量估计为 323 万吨，比去年同期 的 112 万吨增长 188%，创下历史同期最高纪录。预计 2026 年巴西大豆出口量将 达到创纪录的 1.12 亿吨。2025 年全年巴西大豆出口量为 1.0873 亿吨，较 2024 年的 9729 万吨增长 11.8%，也超过了 2023 年的前历史峰值 1.013 亿吨。 Mysteel 农产品团队预估，2026 年 2 月份国内全样本油厂大豆到港 77 船， 共计约 500.50 万吨（本月船重按 6.5 万吨计），本月到港包含部分储备轮换豆。 此外，根据船期及调研初步预估，2026 年 3 月预计 480 万吨，4 月 950 万吨。 近月供应仍然存在一定缺口，但是相对去年缺货的极端情况预估发生概率偏 小，对于春节前后现货节奏仍然不清晰，近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而远月合 约因为美国生物燃料政策加快落地而略微走强，美国生物燃料政策可能某种程度 弱化美豆的过剩，但是无法提供长期的向上驱动，南美大豆丰产带来的压力仍然 较大。建议现 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The cyclical bottom of soybean has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited. It is estimated that soybeans will continue to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [1]. - Corn is expected to have a wide - range volatile trend before the Spring Festival. If there is a large decline and adjustment, it can still be considered to buy on dips [1]. - The inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026 will decrease month - by - month, with significant declines in March and April, and a narrowing decline in May. It is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. - The de - capacity of pigs is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and it is difficult for the near - month and spot prices to show a continuous rise. The far - month needs to focus on the de - capacity in the past two months and the number of sows [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Soybean - In the Northeast production area, the spot market of low - protein soybeans is stable, with little remaining grain inventory at the grass - roots level and sluggish transactions. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, showing the characteristic of high - quality and high - price. The price of 39% protein content commercial soybeans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty. Multiple domestic soybean two - way bidding transactions by Sinograin have all been completed, indicating certain market demand support [1]. Corn - In the production area, after entering the twelfth lunar month, farmers' attitude of holding prices has loosened slightly, and the phenomenon of threshing and selling grain by grass - roots farmers has increased, with a slight improvement in the supply of grass - roots corn. In terms of demand, there is a rigid demand for stockpiling before the Spring Festival in the feed and deep - processing industries, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some factories has increased. However, due to the relatively high price of dry grain, the inventory days of mainstream feed and deep - processing corn have increased to more than 30 days, and the factory's raw material inventory is relatively safe, with a cautious attitude in the market [1]. Egg - Calculated from the chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026 will show a monthly decreasing trend, with significant declines in March and April due to the combined effects of less previous replenishment and accelerated elimination of old chickens. In May, the inventory will continue to decline, but the decline will narrow, and the industry will gradually enter the supply - demand adjustment transition period. The market is in a state of hesitation, with a slight decline after a recent upward rush, and there is no obvious driving force. Since the current inventory margin has improved slightly compared with the second half of last year, it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal reserve. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared with the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared with the end of the previous year. The pig de - capacity is still ongoing, and it is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to show a continuous rise [2][3].

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续反弹 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 1 月 23 日受亏损扩大影响，部分中小企业生产积极性下降， 独立焦企焦炭库存回落 0.36 万吨至库存 81.45 万吨，焦炭综合库存增加 15.14 万吨至 1012.35 万吨，同比降幅接近 4%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利-66 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利-51 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利-8 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-103 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利-11 元/吨。 下游需求，终端需求维持淡季特征，钢厂利润虽有小幅回升，但供应端整体 复产积极性依然有限。本周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率减少 0.16 个百分点至 78.68%， 同比去年增加 0.7 个百分点，盈利率环比上周增加 0.86 个百分点至 40.69%，高 炉炼铁产能利用率微幅回升至85.51%，日均铁水产量环比微增0.09万吨至228.1 万吨，同比去年增加 2.65 万吨。 上游焦煤，本周煤矿炼焦煤库存小幅回升，独立焦企炼焦煤总库存 1177.71 万吨，钢厂炼焦煤库存增加至 803.24 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月29日 【行情分析】 1月29日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月 23日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近年同期中性水 平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位 水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴 油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万 吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有 下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞， 农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限， 终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，塑料短期 跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，塑料反弹可持续 性谨慎 ...