Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has increased. Although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the current off - season demand and the increase in SHFE inventory have weakened market confidence. The recent game of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has led to small fluctuations in copper prices. If the interest - rate cut is realized, copper prices are expected to be slightly stronger [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Today, copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. Waller unexpectedly released dovish signals, igniting the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut. The probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in December has risen to 81%. Copper concentrate inventory has increased for a week, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is still ongoing, with the TC and RC remaining stable. Refined copper imports have decreased month - on - month, but the domestic copper supply is relatively abundant. The SHFE copper inventory has also increased, and there is no shortage of supply. The 770th document has not been implemented, so the production of recycled copper rods in Jiangxi and Anhui has decreased. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2 million and 40 thousand tons, a month - on - month decline of over 10% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 80 yuan/ton, and in South China it is 120 yuan/ton. On November 24, 2025, the LME official price was 10,775 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was +20 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of November 25, the latest data shows that the spot TC is - 42.35 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC is - 4.42 US cents/pound [6] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 41,000 tons, a decrease of 2,851 tons from the previous period. As of November 24, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 115,300 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 155,800 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 409,400 short tons, an increase of 4,363 short tons from the previous period [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - With the overall supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastics are expected to experience weak oscillations in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 25, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week-on-week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film increased slightly again, and the orders for packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. In addition, the Trump administration is trying to promote a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky has shown an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 700,000 tons/year were recently put into operation. The plastics operating rate decreased slightly [1] - The agricultural film is entering the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season falling short of expectations. The price of agricultural film is stable. As the temperature drops, the demand in the north begins to decrease, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline [1] - Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally reduce prices to actively sell goods. There is no actual policy for anti-involution in the plastics industry yet. Anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,758 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,822 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, below the 60-day moving average, with a decline of 0.28%. The position volume decreased by 9,070 lots to 488,359 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from -80 to +50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,640 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 25, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week-on-week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film increased slightly again, and the orders for packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Tuesday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 685,000 tons compared to the previous day, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil: the Brent crude oil 01 contract fell to $63/barrel, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720/ton week-on-week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730/ton week-on-week [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.29个百分点至53.57%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑 编开工率持平于44.24%，塑编订单环比略有减少，略低于去年同期。11月25日，上海赛科单线等检修 装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至82%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至31%左 右。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示， 美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火， 泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10 月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单跟进持续性有限，市场缺乏 大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。PP产业还未有反内卷实际政策落 地，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。预计PP 偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2601合约增仓震荡下行，最低价6313元/吨，最高价6 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - Not provided in the content 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mainstream Regional Market Prices (Yuan/ton) - In Hebei, the price remained at 1650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]. - In Henan, the price dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton [2]. - In Shandong, the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton [2]. - In Shanxi, the price fell by 10 yuan/ton to 1500 yuan/ton [2]. - In Jiangsu, the price stayed at 1630 yuan/ton, the same as before [2]. - In Anhui, the price declined by 10 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton [2]. - In Heilongjiang, the price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton [2]. - In Inner Mongolia, the price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton [2]. Factory Prices (Yuan/ton) - Hebei Dongguang's price remained at 1640 yuan/ton [2]. - Shandong Hualu's price stayed at 1640 yuan/ton [2]. - Jiangsu Linggu's price was unchanged at 1680 yuan/ton [2]. - Anhui Haoyuan's price dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 1620 yuan/ton [2]. Basis (Yuan/ton) - Shandong 05 basis increased by 17 yuan/ton to -78 yuan/ton [2]. - Shandong 01 basis rose by 15 yuan/ton to -84 yuan/ton [2]. - Hebei 05 basis went up by 7 yuan/ton to -78 yuan/ton [2]. - Hebei 01 basis increased by 5 yuan/ton to -84 yuan/ton [2]. Month - to - Month Spreads (Yuan/ton) - The 1 - 5 spread widened by 4 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread narrowed by 2 yuan/ton to -6 yuan/ton [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts decreased by 268 to 7302 [2]. International Quotes (US dollars/ton) - Middle East FOB remained at 395.5 US dollars/ton [2]. - US Gulf FOB stayed at 374.5 US dollars/ton [2]. - Egypt FOB was unchanged at 472.5 US dollars/ton [2]. - Baltic FOB remained at 372.5 US dollars/ton [2]. - Brazil CFR stayed at 415 US dollars/ton [2].

期货收盘价(连续):生猪利润： （元/头） -270.52 -265.12 2.03% 期货收盘价(1月交割连续):生 猪利润：（元/头） -319.19 -319.79 -0.19% 期货收盘价(5月交割连续):生 猪利润：（元/头） -252.63 -257.00 -1.70% 期货收盘价(9月交割连续):生 猪利润：（元/头） -60.10 -90.53 -33.61% 河南:新郑:价格:生猪(外三 元)：（元/千克） 11.58 11.73 -1.28% 自繁自养生猪现货利润：（元/ 头） -319.934896 -297.084232 7.69% 河南:开封:价格:仔猪(外三 元,15kg)：（元/千克） 20.80 20.80 0.00% 中国:养殖利润:外购仔猪（元/ 头）（周） -234.63 -205.64 14.10% 河南:新郑:价格:生猪(外三元)：（元/千克） 自繁自养生猪现货利润：（元/头） 期货收盘价(5月交割连续):生猪利润：（元/头） 期货收盘价(9月交割连续):生猪利润：（元/头） 2025-06-23 2025-06-23 2025-06-23 期货收盘价(连续):生猪利 ...

早盘速递 2025/11/25 热点资讯 1. 新华社消息，11月24日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出，上个月我们在韩国釜山成功举行会 晤，达成很多重要共识，中美"相互成就、共同繁荣"是看得见、摸得着的实景。双方要保持住这个势头，坚持正确方向，秉 持平等、尊重、互惠态度，拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，争取更多积极进展，为中美关系打开新的合作空间，更好造福两国 人民和世界人民。 2. 据外媒报道，美联储理事沃勒表示：大多数私营部门数据显示就业市场疲软。自美联储上次会议以来，现有数据显示变化 不大，通胀并非大问题。我关注的是劳动力市场，我主张在12月降息。 板块持仓 (500,000) (400,000) (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-11-24 2025-11-21 2025-11-20 2025 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, significant news, and financial market developments across various sectors, including commodities, futures, stocks, and bonds. It also covers macroeconomic news, industry - specific updates, and geopolitical events that may impact the financial markets. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.33% at $4133.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.49% at $51.155 per ounce [4]. - U.S. oil and Brent crude futures increased, with U.S. oil up 1.43% at $58.89 per barrel and Brent up 1.28% at $62.73 per barrel [5]. - London base metals all climbed, such as LME nickel up 1.90% at $14730 per ton and LME tin up 1.44% at $37425 per ton [5]. - Most domestic futures contracts rose, with glass, ethylene glycol, etc. up over 1%, while rubber and low - sulfur fuel oil declined slightly [6]. Important News Macro News - On November 24, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with U.S. President Trump, emphasizing the need to expand cooperation between China and the U.S. [9]. - As of November 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 20.7% to 1639.37 points [10]. - By the end of October, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.75 billion kilowatts, a 17.3% year - on - year increase [11]. - On November 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations [12]. - Fed Governor Waller advocated a December rate cut due to a weak labor market [14]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of November 24, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory decreased by 1.75% to 1.6157 million tons [17]. - Jiangsu styrene port inventory rose 10.72% to 164,200 tons [17]. - East China's ethylene glycol inventory increased by 35,500 tons to 668,500 tons [18]. - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were cut by 70 yuan and 65 yuan per ton respectively on November 24 [20]. Metal Futures - In 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production is expected to grow 1.7% year - on - year, and overseas operating capacity has increased by about 500,000 tons [22]. - Indonesia's Freeport plans to produce less cathode copper and gold in 2026 due to a mudslide [22]. Black - Series Futures - Due to snow in Ganqimao Port, the number of customs - cleared vehicles on November 24 is expected to be less than 1000 [24]. - From November 17 - 23, global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.38 million tons [24]. - In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.5% [27]. Agricultural Product Futures - From November 24, the margin standards for nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizer auctions were adjusted [29]. - Last week, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills exceeded 2.3 million tons [29]. - As of November 21, palm oil and soybean oil commercial inventories increased [29]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares fluctuated up, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05% at 3836.77 points, and the market turnover was 1.74 trillion yuan [36]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.97% to 25716.5 points [36]. - As of November 24, 800 listed companies received significant shareholder increases, totaling 115.821 billion yuan, a 44.69% year - on - year increase [36]. - High - end strategists predict that China's stock market will continue its bull market, with a potential 30% increase by 2027 [37]. Industry - As of November 24, 12 Sino - Japanese flight routes canceled all flights [41]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases [41]. - By the end of October, China's solar power and wind power installed capacities increased significantly [43]. Overseas - The U.S. and Ukraine reached a 19 - point peace agreement draft, but key issues remain to be decided [44]. - The U.S. canceled the release of Q3 GDP pre - estimates, and PCE data will be released on December 5 [44]. - Fed officials advocated a December rate cut due to a weak labor market [44]. International Stocks - U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow up 0.44%, the S&P 500 up 1.55%, and the Nasdaq up 2.69% [47]. - European stocks had mixed results, with the German DAX up 0.71% and the French CAC40 down 0.29% [47]. Commodities - Precious metals, crude oil, and base metals all rose, driven by factors such as Fed signals and geopolitical events [50]. - Bank of America predicts that gold prices may reach $5000 per ounce in 2026 [51]. Bonds - The domestic bond market had narrow fluctuations, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [52]. - The central bank issued 45 billion yuan of RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [53]. - U.S. bond yields fell across the board [55]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the dollar index rose slightly [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The controversy over the AI bubble has intensified, and the NVIDIA earnings report has affected the global market. Risk - asset prices have fluctuated sharply and declined. The Fed's hawkish remarks have weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation, suppressing investors' risk appetite [5][10]. - The domestic futures market style has switched with price corrections. The anti - involution market has returned, with lithium carbonate being the protagonist, driven by supply and demand, and showing international and domestic linkage [7][119]. - The stock market and commodities have both declined. The difference between commodity and stock returns has converged, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns has hovered around the 0 axis [52]. Summary by Directory Market Overview - AI bubble controversy has increased, and the NVIDIA earnings report has made the market nervous. Risk - asset prices have fallen, global stocks and commodities have declined, A - shares have dropped significantly, the BDI index has risen against the trend, the US dollar index has strengthened, and most non - US currencies have depreciated. Commodities are mostly down, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals falling. The domestic bond market has mixed results, and stock indexes have all tumbled. Most domestic commodity sectors have declined except for the grain sector [5][10]. Big - Class Assets - Global stocks and commodities have declined. Bitcoin and US stocks have fallen rapidly from highs, the VIX volatility index has risen significantly, the BDI index has risen, the US dollar index has strengthened, most non - US currencies have depreciated, and commodities are mostly down [5][10]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has mixed results with near - term strength and long - term weakness, stock indexes have all tumbled, and most domestic commodity sectors have declined except for the grain sector. The Wind commodity index has a weekly change of - 4.55%, with 1 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 9 falling [15]. Fund Flows - The commodity futures market has seen a significant overall outflow of funds. The soft commodity, grain, and energy sectors have seen obvious inflows, while the non - ferrous, precious metal, and non - metallic building materials sectors have seen significant outflows [19]. Variety Performance - In the past week, domestic major commodity futures have had mixed results. The top - rising commodity futures are lithium carbonate, iron ore, and styrene, while the top - falling ones are silver futures, low - sulfur fuel oil, and soda ash [23]. Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index has changed little, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua commodity indexes has risen. Most commodity futures sectors have seen an increase in volatility, with the oilseeds and chemical sectors seeing a decline in volatility, and the precious metal, agricultural product, and non - ferrous sectors seeing the most obvious increase in volatility [27]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities have generally declined, the BDI has risen, the CRB has fallen, soybeans have risen while corn has fallen, copper, oil, gold, and silver have all declined, and the gold - silver ratio has rebounded significantly [31]. Macro Logic - Stock indexes have fallen sharply, valuations have declined, and the risk premium ERP has risen. Commodity price indexes have fallen significantly, and inflation expectations have declined under pressure. US Treasury yields have declined, the term structure has flattened in a bullish way, the term spread has changed little, and real interest rates and gold prices have both fallen [35][45][62]. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, the stock market fell sharply, and commodities declined together. The negative difference between commodity and stock returns has converged. The Nanhua and CRB commodity indexes have both declined significantly, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns has hovered around the 0 axis [52]. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation - The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed has risen. The probability of a 25 - bp cut to 3.5 - 3.75% is 67.3%, significantly higher than last week's 39.8%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% has significantly decreased [6][81]. NVIDIA Earnings Report - The market has high expectations for NVIDIA's earnings report, with Wall Street generally optimistic, but some institutions are concerned about the AI bubble. The earnings report has exceeded expectations, temporarily alleviating concerns about the AI bubble and boosting the global capital market. However, the stock price has fallen during trading, and the US stock market has reversed sharply [87][91][97]. Fed's Hawkish Stance - The Fed's meeting minutes and the remarks of Fed officials have weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation. The US dollar has strengthened, the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, and the US Treasury yield has fluctuated widely [103]. Market Style Switching - Overseas, the market is worried about the release of major US data, the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the controversy over the AI bubble. Domestically, affected by overseas market volatility, investors have shifted from technology stocks to cyclical stocks, and the anti - involution market has returned, with lithium carbonate being the focus [119]. This Week's Focus - A series of important economic data and events in the US, Germany, the UK, New Zealand, the eurozone, South Korea, and Japan will be released this week, including business activity indexes, GDP data, inflation data, and central bank interest - rate decisions [122].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the price rebound, the downstream response was poor, and the orders received since the weekend were weak. Domestic demand still couldn't support the high - price operation. The India tender price also failed to boost the market. However, exports continued, and there was still demand support from subsequent off - season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage. It is expected that the futures market will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices moved up due to the continuous rebound of futures and improved downstream demand. But since the weekend, the downstream market has generally resisted high prices, resulting in poor factory orders and the prices are running weakly and stably [3] Futures Dynamics - From November 18 - 22, the urea futures market showed different trends each day. As of November 24, the main January contract of urea was at 1638 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the settlement price on November 17. The weekly trading volume was 1738.90 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 121.16 million tons; the open interest was 724.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.79 million tons. The export speculation sentiment weakened, and the futures market returned to the fundamentals. The weak domestic demand negatively affected the market. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. As of November 24, the basis of the 01 contract was 12 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 74 yuan/ton. As of November 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 11 yuan/ton. On November 24, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7570, a week - on - week increase of 387 [5][8] Urea Supply - side - From November 13 - 19, the weekly urea output was 142.04 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.35 million tons and a 3.16% increase. The weekly average daily output was 20.29 million tons. Coal - based and small - particle output increased, while gas - based output decreased slightly. In the next cycle, the output is expected to continue to grow. On November 24, the national daily urea output was 20.75 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.51%. The price of steam coal was weakly stable, and the supply was expected to change little. The domestic LNG price decreased. The price of synthetic ammonia moved up, and the price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea weakened. The methanol price decreased, and the price difference between methanol and urea also decreased [11][12][14] Urea Demand - side - As of November 21, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased slightly. After the end of the environmental protection inspection last week, the production of compound fertilizer enterprises gradually resumed, and some Northeast devices started operation. It is expected that the production of winter - storage compound fertilizer will continue in the next period. From November 15 - 21, the compound fertilizer operating rate was 34.61%, a 4.29% increase from the previous week and 2.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.2%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from the previous period and 6.17 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Although the operating load of melamine increased, the downstream panel market was weak, and the demand support was insufficient [16] Inventory Data - As of November 21, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 143.72 million tons, a decrease of 4.64 million tons from the previous week and a 3.13% decrease. The inventory in Northeast China decreased smoothly. The port sample inventory was 10 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to increase with exports [19] International Market - This week's India tender price was lower than expected. The US cancelled the import tariff on major nitrogen fertilizers. As of November 21, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in China changed, and the FOB prices in other regions also had different fluctuations [21][23]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department [5] Market Summary - As of the close on November 24, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Methanol rose over 3%, glass nearly 3%, and ethylene glycol (EG), corn, cotton yarn, and polysilicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate dropped nearly 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and pure benzene fell over 2%, and styrene (EB), coking coal, palm oil, and urea dropped over 1% [5][6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84%. For treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.06%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.15% [6]. - As of 15:18 on November 24, in terms of capital flow, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an inflow of 1.456 billion yuan, Shanghai Silver 2602 had an inflow of 260 million yuan, and Shanghai Copper 2601 had an inflow of 240 million yuan. In terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 7.289 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 4.312 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 2.562 billion yuan [6]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened low and trended higher, showing a strong oscillation. Data led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, but with a data vacuum before the next Fed meeting, the uncertainty of rate cut expectations is high, and the market generally believes the probability of no rate cut in December is relatively large, causing the US dollar index to continue to rebound [8]. - Nvidia's strong earnings boosted optimistic expectations for copper downstream demand. Copper concentrate inventories have been accumulating for a week, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in Q2 next year. Refined copper imports decreased month-on-month, but domestic supply is relatively abundant, and SHFE copper inventories have also been accumulating [8]. - The 770th document has not been implemented, causing cautious operations in recycled copper rod enterprises. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a month-on-month decline of over 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [8]. - Overall, the Fed's hawkish and dovish camps are in a stalemate, and the market believes the probability of a rate cut in December is small, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the off-season demand and increasing SHFE inventories have weakened market confidence. Short-term copper prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to Fed rate cut expectations [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and trended lower, dropping nearly 3% during the day. As of October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 21, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year [11]. - In October, China's energy storage battery production was 54.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.5%. In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, year-on-year increases of 21.1% and 20% [11]. - The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and demand. Although there is news of the resumption of production at the Jiuxiaowo mine, the authenticity is uncertain. Until the actual negative impact is realized, there is support at the bottom of the market [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 next year. The end of the peak demand season, combined with increased production and exports, has led to a supply surplus in the crude oil market [12][13]. - EIA data shows that refined oil inventories increased more than expected, but due to increased net exports, US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected. US crude oil production is near a record high. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [12][13]. - The market is worried about crude oil demand due to the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US manufacturing index, and the unclear prospects of US interest rate cuts. The supply surplus in the crude oil market has become a consensus, and the risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year-on-year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) [14]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed performance. The national asphalt shipments increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. Asphalt refinery inventory ratios remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years [14]. - With the decline in crude oil prices and the end of road construction in the north, demand is expected to weaken further. With the stable production of some refineries, the asphalt operating rate will increase. Asphalt futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly compared to last year [16]. - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 81%. The production ratio of standard-grade PP increased to around 29%. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years [16]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Downstream demand is in the late peak season, and orders are limited. The lack of large-scale purchases and the absence of anti-competition policies have led to limited market support. PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, with stable orders, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, and the plastic operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film peak season is ending, and demand in the north is starting to decline [17]. - Downstream purchasing willingness is low, and traders are cautious about the future market. Without anti-competition policies, and with the supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastic prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [17][19]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased slightly to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly, remaining at a relatively low level [20]. - India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC and the likely cancellation of anti-dumping duties have alleviated concerns about exports to India, and export orders increased last week. Social inventories increased slightly last week and remain high, indicating significant inventory pressure [20]. - In 2025, the real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement of the real estate market requires time. With positive chlor-alkali comprehensive profits and new production capacity coming online, the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly recently [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and trended higher, with a decline during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased, and the self-pickup price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal also decreased [21]. - In October, China's coal imports decreased year-on-year. The utilization rate of coking coal mine production capacity increased slightly. As of November 16, the cumulative import volume of coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was large, and the daily customs clearance vehicles may increase next week [21][22]. - Under the winter coal supply and price stabilization policy, the tight supply expectation is partially offset. Mine inventories have increased significantly, while coke enterprise inventories have decreased. Steel mill operating rates and molten iron production increased this week, but profits are weakening. There is potential bullishness in mine production cuts at the end of the year, so be cautious about potential price rebounds [22]. Urea - The futures price opened low and trended lower, showing a downward oscillation. The spot price of urea increased due to the continuous rebound of futures prices and improved downstream demand, but since the weekend, downstream resistance to high prices has led to weak order receipts and stable prices [23]. - Before the seasonal shutdown of gas-based devices, the daily output of upstream factories is expected to fluctuate above 190,000 tons. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed, and downstream demand needs verification. Last week, demand was strong, and orders were good. Northeast fertilizer preparation has begun, and compound fertilizer factory operating rates have rebounded [23]. - After the price rebound, downstream feedback has been poor, and order receipts have been weak since the weekend. Domestic demand cannot support high prices, and the Indian tender price has not boosted the market. However, exports continue, and there is still demand support from off-season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [23].