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冠通期货早盘速递-20250527
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 11:06
Report Date - Morning Express on May 27, 2025 [1] Hot News - China's government implemented a package of macro - economic control policies since Q4 last year, leading to an improvement in economic indicators, stable market expectations and confidence, and enhanced medium - and long - term debt sustainability. Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating stability reflects the positive outlook of China's economy. A series of incremental and existing policies will continue to work together for high - quality economic development [2] - The increase in freight demand has pushed up the prices in the US - bound shipping market. Many shipping companies announced rate hikes for Asia - to - US routes, with a maximum increase of $3000 for 40 - foot containers [2] - Since Q2, local governments have accelerated the use of special bonds to acquire land. As of now, nearly 3000 idle land parcels with a total area of over 133 million square meters and a total value of over 350 billion yuan are planned to be acquired using special bonds [2] - As of May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period [2] - The EU plans to speed up trade negotiations with the US. After a phone call between EU Commission President von der Leyen and Trump, Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU by more than a month to July 9 for further negotiations [2] Key Areas of Concern - Pulp, coke, glass, gold, and Shanghai gold futures [3] Night - Session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials: 2.67% [3] - Precious metals: 30.94% [3] - Oilseeds and oils: 11.82% [3] - Soft commodities: 2.46% [3] - Non - ferrous metals: 18.91% [3] - Coal, coke, steel, and minerals: 13.36% [3] - Energy: 2.55% [3] - Chemicals: 12.92% [3] - Grains: 1.62% [3] - Agricultural and sideline products: 2.74% [3] Sector Holdings - Data shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector holdings from May 20 to May 26, 2025 [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Shanghai Composite Index: daily change - 0.05%, monthly change 2.07%, annual change - 0.15% [5] - SSE 50 Index: daily change - 0.46%, monthly change 2.52%, annual change 0.55% [5] - CSI 300 Index: daily change - 0.57%, monthly change 2.37%, annual change - 1.90% [5] - CSI 500 Index: daily change 0.29%, monthly change 0.67%, annual change - 0.98% [5] - S&P 500: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 4.20%, annual change - 1.34% [5] - Hang Seng Index: daily change - 1.35%, monthly change 5.26%, annual change 16.06% [5] - German DAX: daily change 1.68%, monthly change 6.80%, annual change 20.69% [5] - Nikkei 225: daily change 1.00%, monthly change 4.12%, annual change - 5.92% [5] - UK FTSE 100: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.63%, annual change 6.67% [5] Fixed - Income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 0.13%, annual change - 0.06% [5] - 5 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.01%, monthly change - 0.04%, annual change - 0.45% [5] - 2 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.03%, monthly change 0.06%, annual change - 0.53% [5] Commodities - CRB Commodity Index: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.73%, annual change - 0.02% [5] - WTI crude oil: daily change 0.08%, monthly change 5.83%, annual change - 14.38% [5] - London spot gold: daily change - 0.46%, monthly change 1.64%, annual change 27.36% [5] - LME copper: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 5.36%, annual change 9.48% [5] - Wind Commodity Index: daily change - 0.45%, monthly change 0.36%, annual change 16.67% [5] Others - US Dollar Index: daily change - 0.15%, monthly change - 0.66%, annual change - 8.76% [5] - CBOE Volatility Index: daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 9.76%, annual change 28.47% [5]
盘面窄幅震荡,上下空间均有限
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 09:50
【冠通研究】 盘面窄幅震荡,上下空间均有限 制作日期:2025 年 5 月 27 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开高走,日内小幅翻红,尾盘回落收跌。上游工厂报价稳中下 调,部分工厂开启降价收单,成交量有所好转,目前大颗粒行情优于小颗粒。 基本面来看,供应端,按隆众口径日产为 20.47 万吨,同比偏高 3.16 万吨。预 计后期煤制装置将有减产,6 月供应压力或小幅释放。需求端,农需备肥谨 慎,主交割地区山东、河南暂时未集中备肥,东北地区目前玉米追肥备肥中。 目前华北地区小麦收成已接近三成,玉米用肥在即,复合肥工厂终端走货好 转,近期开工率或有提升,但目前成品库存高位,预计尿素需求支撑持续性有 限,后续下月初开工率将逐渐进一步下调。尿素厂内库存上周累库,预计夏季 肥扫尾阶段,库存有机会进一步去化。综合来看,综合来看,尿素供给端变动 不明显,尿素出口消息带来的盘面涨幅回吐大半,主要系内需转弱影响,目前 看供需依然宽松,盘面弱势为主,目前即将迎来玉米肥用肥阶段,盘面有机会 小幅反弹,但空间较为有限。关注后续集港带来的价格波动及超预期检修状 况。 【期现行情】 期货方面:尿素主力 2509 合约 1813 元/吨低开 ...
下游承接力度不足,盘面承压
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 09:46
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - environment is weak, demand is marginally weakening, downstream construction has declined, and demand has entered the off - season with insufficient downstream acceptance. However, the copper smelting end is tight, and the shutdown of a copper mine in Congo has increased supply - side disturbances. Under the game of long and short forces, the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low, moved low, and closed down today. The shutdown of a large copper mine in Congo due to an earthquake and the withdrawal of its 2025 production forecast have deepened the expectation of a tight supply at the mine end [1]. - As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.3 dollars per dry ton, and the RC was - 4.44 cents per pound. Although the decline has significantly slowed, the market still expects a tight supply. In April, the domestic refined copper production was 1.254 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the imported refined copper was 300,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. The actual supply has not weakened [1]. - Downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced copper, and the demand has decreased month - on - month. Except for the real estate sector, the terminal demand is still good. As of the end of April, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The copper futures opened low, moved low, and closed down at 78,210. The long positions of the top 20 were 108,529 lots, an increase of 6,144 lots; the short positions were 110,516 lots, an increase of 5,989 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 145 yuan per ton, and in South China was 220 yuan per ton. On May 23, 2025, the LME official price was 9,565 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 30 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.30 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.44 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of May 26, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 53,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 162,200 tons, a slight decrease of 2,575 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 175,600 short tons, an increase of 1,024 short tons from the previous period [9].
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250527
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 00:44
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 (100020) 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/05/27 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一,COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.7%报 3342.2 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银期货涨 0.11%报 33.645 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价小幅波动,美油主力合约持平,报 61.53 美元/桶。布油主力合约 涨 0.05%,报 64.81 美元/桶。 3. 国内商品期货夜盘,原油主力合约收跌 0.11%报 455.9 元/桶。贵金属方面, 沪金收跌 0.23%报 779.72 元/克,沪银涨 0.29%报 8294 元/千克。纸浆跌超 2%, 甲醇、苯乙烯(EB)、纯碱跌近 2%,PX、短纤、PTA、乙二醇(EG)、聚氯乙 烯(PVC)、焦炭跌超 1%;涨幅方面,20 号胶涨超 1%。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 财政部有关负责同志表示,去年四季度以来,中国政府实施一揽子宏观经济 调控政策,经济指标回升向好,市场预期和信心稳定,债务中长期可持续性增 强,穆迪作出维持中国主权信用评级稳定的决定,是对中国经济向好前景的正 面反 ...
冠通期货每日交易策略-20250526
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 11:02
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market faces downward pressure due to increased supply from OPEC+ and other producers, potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, and uncertain demand affected by global trade tensions [3]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue weakening, with the futures price hitting a new low and the spot price likely to decline further, accompanied by range - bound fluctuations [6]. - The copper market is expected to experience high - level oscillations, with multiple factors such as uncertain macro - environment, supply - demand dynamics, and dollar index influencing the price [12]. - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [13]. - The PP market is expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, supply - demand dynamics, and trade negotiations [14]. - The plastic market is expected to oscillate in the near term, with factors like new production capacity,检修 devices, and trade negotiations influencing it [16]. - The PVC market is under pressure and will enter a period of oscillatory consolidation, affected by factors such as supply - demand, export policies, and real - estate data [17]. - The soybean oil market is expected to be weakly volatile in the second half of the second quarter, with supply pressure and market sentiment influencing the price [19]. - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend, with supply - demand dynamics and weather conditions affecting the price [20][22]. - The hot - rolled coil market will continue to face supply - demand contradictions and may maintain bottom - level oscillations if external tariffs are implemented and domestic demand does not improve [23]. - The rebar market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to continue weak oscillations due to cost and demand factors [25]. - The urea market is currently in a weak state, with supply - demand dynamics and potential export factors influencing the price, and may experience a small - scale rebound after agricultural demand picks up [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ is implementing a step - by - step production increase plan, and the US crude production is near a historical high. Other non - OPEC+ producers are also releasing production capacity, and the signing of the Iran nuclear deal may further increase supply [3]. - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. The trade negotiation between the US and the EU is difficult [3]. - Outlook: There is still downward pressure on crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and the signing of the Iran nuclear deal [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Some upstream lithium - extraction enterprises are undergoing maintenance and production cuts, but the supply pressure remains due to previous over - supply [6]. - Demand: The downstream procurement intention is weak, but there is a slight improvement in overall demand [6]. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated, and the price is expected to continue to weaken [6]. Copper - Supply: The domestic refined copper production is at a high level, and the supply tension expected by the market has not materialized [12]. - Demand: The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand is currently weakening [12]. - Outlook: The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level due to multiple factors [12]. Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt production rate has declined, but the expected production in May is increasing [13]. - Demand: The downstream demand is still to be restored, affected by factors such as funds and weather [13]. - Outlook: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [13]. PP - Supply: New production capacity is put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices, but the overall supply is still affected by multiple factors [14]. - Demand: The downstream recovery is slow, and the new orders are limited [14]. - Outlook: The PP market is expected to oscillate [14]. Plastic - Supply: New production capacity is put into operation, and there are new maintenance devices, and the supply is affected by multiple factors [16]. - Demand: The downstream demand is general, and the new orders are slow to follow up [16]. - Outlook: The plastic market is expected to oscillate in the near term [16]. PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate is decreasing but still at a relatively high level [17]. - Demand: The downstream demand is still low compared to previous years, and the export is affected by policies [17]. - Outlook: The PVC market is under pressure and will enter a period of oscillatory consolidation [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The expected arrival of soybeans in May and June is large, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to be relatively loose [19]. - Demand: The downstream market is mainly replenishing based on rigid demand, and the inventory is expected to increase [19]. - Outlook: The soybean oil market is expected to be weakly volatile in the second half of the second quarter [19]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The domestic soybean crushing volume is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient [20]. - Demand: The terminal demand for large - scale replenishment is limited, and the inventory is expected to increase [20][22]. - Outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [20][22]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply: The supply is still at a high level, and the marginal contraction is limited [23]. - Demand: Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the inventory removal is slow [23]. - Outlook: The hot - rolled coil market will continue to face supply - demand contradictions and may maintain bottom - level oscillations [23]. Rebar - Supply: The supply is still at a high level, with short - term slight increase [25]. - Demand: The demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory removal is slow [25]. - Outlook: The rebar market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to continue weak oscillations [25]. Urea - Supply: The production in May is expected to be higher than previous years, and the supply pressure may be slightly relieved in June [26]. - Demand: The agricultural demand is cautious, and the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is weakening [26]. - Outlook: The urea market is currently weak, and may experience a small - scale rebound after agricultural demand picks up [26].
冠通期货早盘速递-20250526
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 06:33
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is actively promoting the listing of green - low - carbon and recycled metal futures and options such as cast aluminum alloy to serve the risk management and circular development needs of the aluminum industry [2]. - In the first four months of this year, the national actual use of foreign capital decreased by 10.9% year - on - year, while Japan, Switzerland, the UK, ASEAN, South Korea, and Germany had year - on - year growth in actual investment in China [2]. - The EU is considering removing 20 banks from the SWIFT system, lowering the price cap of Russian oil to about $45 per barrel, and banning the construction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline [2]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1 - 20, 2025, is estimated to increase by 3.51%, with different trends in different regions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Hot News - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will strengthen the coordination between futures and spot markets and promote the listing of new futures and options [2]. - The national actual use of foreign capital in the first four months of this year was 320.78 billion yuan, a 10.9% year - on - year decrease, with some countries showing growth [2]. - The EU is planning new sanctions against Russia in the financial and energy sectors [2]. - The inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese ports decreased, and the daily port clearance volume increased [2]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in May 1 - 20 had an overall increase [3]. Plate Performance - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, Shanghai copper, crude oil, and hot - rolled coils [4]. - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.76%, precious metals 30.83%, oilseeds 11.75%, soft commodities 2.46%, non - ferrous metals 18.77%, coal - coking - steel - ore 13.34%, energy 2.67%, chemicals 13.05%, grains 1.63%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.73% [4]. Plate Position - The report shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94%, the S&P 500 fell 0.67%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.24% [6]. - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.04%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.07%, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.04% [6]. - Commodities: The CRB commodity index rose 0.13%, WTI crude oil rose 1.27%, and London spot gold rose 1.91% [6]. - Others: The US dollar index fell 0.82%, and the CBOE volatility index rose 9.91% [6].
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250526
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 01:00
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 (100020) 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/05/26 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨,COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.90%报 3357.70 美元/盎司, 上周累计上涨 5.35%。COMEX 白银期货涨 1.27%报 33.64 美元/盎司,上周累计上 涨 3.97%。 2. 国际油价走强,美油主力合约收涨 0.92%,报 61.76 美元/桶,周跌 0.34%; 布伦特原油主力合约涨 0.92%,报 65.03 美元/桶,周跌 0.58%。 3. 伦敦基本金属全线上涨,LME 期铅涨 1.22%报 1994.00 美元/吨,上周累计下 跌 0.30%;LME 期铜涨 1.19%报 9614.00 美元/吨,上周累计上涨 1.76%。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)农产品期货主力合约全线收跌,大豆期货跌 0.63% 报 1060.75 美分/蒲式耳,周涨 1.02%;玉米期货跌 0.86%报 459 美分/蒲式耳, 周涨 3.49%;小麦期货跌 0.18%报 543.5 美分/蒲式耳,周涨 3.52%。 5. 国 ...
冠通期货早盘速递-20250523
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 01:46
Group 1: Hot News - On May 23, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1-year term [2] - The chairman of China Financial Futures Exchange stated that the exchange is promoting financial futures to play dual functions of stabilizing and activating the market [2] - The chairman of Shanghai Futures Exchange said that the exchange will improve the product system and promote the R & D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, liquefied natural gas, etc [2] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17 was 227,000, the lowest since the week of April 19 [2] - Iran vowed to make a "devastating response" to any stupid act of Israel [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are crude oil, soda ash, glass, gold, and manganese silicon [3] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.70%, precious metals rose 31.38%, oilseeds rose 11.78%, soft commodities rose 2.45%, non - ferrous metals rose 18.66%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 13.22%, energy rose 2.62%, chemicals rose 12.81%, grains rose 1.62%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.75% [3] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days (from May 16 to May 22, 2025) [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.22%, SSE 50 rose 0.19%, CSI 300 fell 0.06%, CSI 500 fell 0.95%, S&P 500 fell 0.04%, Hang Seng Index fell 1.19%, German DAX fell 0.51%, Nikkei 225 fell 0.84%, and UK FTSE 100 fell 0.54% [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures were flat, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures were flat [5] - Commodities: CRB commodity index fell 0.77%, WTI crude oil fell 1.25%, London spot gold fell 0.60%, LME copper fell 0.15%, and Wind commodity index rose 0.13% [5] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.34%, and CBOE volatility index was flat [5]
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250523
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 01:32
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various financial and commodity sectors, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures主力合约涨跌互现,烧碱、纸浆等涨超0.4%,SC原油、氧化铝等跌超1% [2] - International precious metal futures普遍收跌,COMEX黄金期货跌0.56%,COMEX白银期货跌1.39% [3] - International oil prices走弱,美油主力合约收跌1.23%,布伦特原油主力合约跌1.29% [4] - London basic metals收盘多数下跌,LME期锡、期镍、期铜均有不同程度跌幅 [5] - International agricultural product futures涨跌不一,美大豆、美玉米等有涨有跌 [6] Important Information Macro - Information - China's central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23, 2025 [9] - CFFEX is promoting the dual functions of financial futures [9] - SHFE will improve its product system and promote the R & D and listing of new varieties [9] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, a four - week low [10] - Iran vows a "devastating response" to any Israeli attack [11] - Trump's tax reform bill passed the House and is sent to the Senate, and the Senate passed a bill to end California's ban on fuel - powered vehicles [12] - Fed Governor Waller expects a rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs decline [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - OPEC + is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [16] - China's urea production increased, and domestic soda ash inventory decreased [16] - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all rose [16] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of natural rubber futures RU2509 contract [17] - US natural gas inventory increased, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [17] - The US was not persuaded to lower the oil price cap at the G7 meeting [18] Metal Futures - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter will resume production in June and reach full capacity in December [20] - CBA expects gold prices to reach $3,750 per ounce in Q4 due to rising safe - haven demand and a weakening dollar [22] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina futures AO2509 contract [22] - The global lead market had a supply shortage in March 2025 [22] Black - Series Futures - Rebar production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined [24] - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 15.9% year - on - year as of the end of April [24] - Steel social inventory in 21 cities decreased in mid - May, with a narrowing decline [24] - Global crude steel production in April 2025 decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [25] - The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants varied by region [26] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are expected to increase in May [28] - Nigeria's palm oil prices may rise due to Indonesia's export tax increase [28] - Market rumors suggest the US government may grant small refinery exemptions, reducing biodiesel production and oil consumption [29] - IGC maintains the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, with increased trade and consumption [29] - US soybean export net sales data for different periods [30] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased, and commercial inventory was reported [30] - The proportion of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought [30] - US cotton ON - call unpriced orders data [31] - Argentina's soybean sales accelerated in the first two weeks of May [31] Financial Market Finance - The CSRC will optimize the listing environment for technology companies and implement a more flexible IPO adjustment mechanism [33] - A - shares closed lower on Thursday, with some sectors rising and others falling [35] - Hong Kong stocks declined, but two new stocks had a strong performance in the dark - market trading [35] - CATL's H - shares will be included in MSCI indices [36] - Lenovo Group's Q4 revenue and profit increased [36] Industry - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased, with significant growth in solar and wind power [37] - The Cyberspace Administration of China will launch a special campaign to rectify online "black - mouth" against enterprises [37] - The world's first "Intelligent Grading of Humanoid Robots" standard was released [39] - Shanghai introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the technology service industry [39] - A group standard for all - solid - state batteries was released [39] - TOP100 real - estate enterprises' land reserves decreased in 2024 [39] - China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales are expected to increase in May [40] - The "JD Takeaway" platform was interviewed by the market supervision department [40] Overseas - Fed Governor Waller suggests a possible rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize [41] - US manufacturing and service PMI data in May [43] - Harvard University's international student enrollment qualification was revoked [43] - US existing - home sales decreased in April, with a rising median price [43] - US initial jobless claims decreased to a four - week low [43] - Eurozone's May PMI data, with a decline in the composite PMI [44] - European Central Bank's meeting minutes and market expectations for a rate cut [44] - Japan's core machinery orders increased significantly in March [44] - Thailand's court ruled that Yingluck Shinawatra should pay compensation [46] International Stocks - US stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording three - day losses [47] - European stocks closed lower due to concerns about bond yields and tax reform [47] - Berkshire Hathaway's Greg Abel met with Japanese trading company executives [48] - Kraken plans to allow non - US customers to trade stocks in token form [48] Commodity - International precious metal futures declined, affected by the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and the dollar [50] - International oil prices weakened, pressured by OPEC + production increase expectations and US inventory [50] - London basic metals mostly fell, with supply - chain changes [50] - OPEC + is discussing a production increase in July [51] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina and natural rubber futures contracts [51] Bond - China's bond market continued to fluctuate, with the central bank conducting reverse - repurchase operations [52] - A member of the Bank of Japan's council believes no intervention in the bond market is necessary [54] - US Treasury yields declined across the board [54] - European bond yields showed mixed trends [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [55] - The RMB ranked fifth in global payment currency in April [55] - Japan's foreign - exchange official stated that exchange rates should be determined by the market [55] - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [57] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data release schedule including UK consumer confidence, Japan's CPI, etc. [59] - Event schedule including Trump's dinner invitation, central bank operations, and corporate earnings reports [61]
冠通期货早盘速递-20250522
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 09:53
Key Points Summary 1. Policy and Market News - China supports 33 least - developed African countries to fully utilize the 100% tariff - free policy for all tariff items, and from December 1st last year to March this year, China's imports from these countries reached $21.42 billion, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2] - Myanmar's Wa State was officially approved to fully resume tin ore production in late April and is gradually resuming production [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the trading time arrangement for the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival. The market will be closed from May 31st (Saturday) to June 2nd (Monday), and resume trading on June 3rd (Tuesday). There will be no night trading on May 30th (Friday), and the night trading will resume on the evening of June 3rd (Tuesday) [2] - China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the 3.0 version of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area on May 20th [2] - As of the week ending May 16th, the US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory reached the highest level since the week ending October 21st, 2022; gasoline inventory increased by the largest amount since the week ending January 31st, 2025; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves reached the highest level since the week ending July 5th, 2024. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 843,000 barrels to 400.5 million barrels, a 0.21% increase [3] 2. Focus Commodities and Market Performance - Commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, Shanghai copper, crude oil, and rebar [4] - Night - trading performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.65%, precious metals rose 30.91%, oilseeds and fats rose 11.98%, soft commodities rose 2.46%, non - ferrous metals rose 18.92%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals rose 13.15%, energy rose 2.58%, chemicals rose 12.97%, grains rose 1.61%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.77% [4] 3. Position and Asset Performance - Shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [6] - Presents the performance of major asset classes including equities, fixed - income, commodities, and others, with details on daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7] 4. Major Commodity Trends - Displays the trends of major commodities such as stock market risk preferences, BDI, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans and corn, as well as risk premiums of different stock indices [9]