尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1760 1760 0 河南 1760 1760 0 山东 1770 1760 10 山西 1640 1630 10 江苏 1770 1770 0 安徽 1770 1770 0 黑龙江 1780 1780 0 内蒙古 1790 1790 0 河北东光 1740 1740 0 山东华鲁 1740 1740 0 江苏灵谷 1800 1790 10 安徽昊源 1730 1730 0 山东05基差 -74 -34 -40 山东01基差 -44 -9 -35 河北05基差 -74 -34 -40 河北01基差 -44 -9 -35 1-5价差 95 82 13 5-9价差 30 25 5 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 13355 13355 0 中东FOB 403.5 403.5 0 美湾FOB 393.5 393.5 0 埃及FOB 452.5 452.5 0 波罗的海FOB 380 380 0 巴西CFR 420 420 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 仓单 免 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Polysilicon and rapeseed oil rose over 2%, while lithium carbonate and container shipping to Europe routes dropped over 8%, and tin and nickel futures also fell significantly. Different futures varieties showed distinct trends due to various factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical events, and policy changes [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed a pattern of more declines than increases. Polysilicon and rapeseed oil rose over 2%, glass rose over 1%; lithium carbonate and container shipping to Europe routes dropped over 8%, tin dropped over 6%, nickel, butadiene rubber, fuel oil, caustic soda, and SC crude oil dropped over 3%, and apples, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and copper dropped over 2%. In the stock index futures, the CSI 300 futures (IF) main contract dropped 0.29%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) main contract dropped 0.64%, the CSI 500 futures (IC) main contract rose 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) main contract rose 0.25%. In the bond futures, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.05%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.01%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract dropped 0.09%. In terms of capital flow, hot - rolled coil 2605, rebar 2605, and rapeseed oil 2605 had capital inflows, while lithium carbonate 2605, silver 2604, and gold 2602 had capital outflows [5][6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper (Cu)**: Copper futures opened low and moved lower. Supply - side issues included difficulties for smelters to profit from long - term contracts, and by - products like sulfuric acid and gold becoming major profit sources. The refined copper output was expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore might affect the global copper supply. Demand from end - users was strong, but the copper products sector was cautious. Copper inventory increased significantly. Although the market's expectation of copper being included in the tariff scope weakened, copper futures were still prone to rise due to tight supply [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and hit the daily limit down. In December 2025, the output was 99,000 tons, a 3.0% month - on - month increase. The weekly inventory decreased slightly. The demand from energy - storage batteries remained strong, but the market was pressured by the expected increase in supply from the recycling end. The government's adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for batteries might impact the market. The strong situation of lithium carbonate remained unchanged, but the market was volatile [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The EIA data showed an unexpected increase in US crude and gasoline inventories. US crude production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the US - India - Russia oil trade relationship affected the market. The market was worried about demand, and the supply was in an oversupply situation. The price was expected to fluctuate and consolidate [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate increased slightly this week, but the expected production in January 2026 decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The downstream construction was restricted by funds and weather. The inventory rate of asphalt refineries continued to rise. The geopolitical situation in Venezuela affected the supply of raw materials for domestic asphalt production. The price was expected to fluctuate, and an inverse spread strategy was recommended [14][16]. - **PP**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased slightly. The PP enterprise operating rate remained stable at a relatively low level. The cost decreased due to the easing of the Iran situation. The supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream. The downstream demand was limited before the Spring Festival. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. The downstream PE operating rate decreased, and the demand from the agricultural film sector continued to decline. The cost decreased with the easing of the Iran situation. The supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [18][19]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price was stable. The PVC operating rate was basically stable, but the downstream operating rate decreased. The export orders decreased, and the social inventory continued to increase. The cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy might stimulate a rush - to - export phenomenon. The 03 - 05 contracts were expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened low and moved higher but declined during the day. The coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The supply from imported coal decreased, while domestic production increased. The inventory transferred from upstream to downstream. The demand from steel mills and coking enterprises was expected to increase during the winter storage period, but the upward momentum was limited due to weak macro - sentiment. The price was expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Urea**: Urea opened low and moved higher but declined during the day. The market trading was not active, and the downstream was resistant to high prices. The daily output was expected to remain above 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand increased, and the industrial demand from compound fertilizer and melamine factories also rose. The inventory decreased. The price was expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 16, new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and orders for agricultural films continued to decline. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has fallen due to the easing of the situation in Iran. There has been new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, and the operating rate is higher than that of PP. The plastic supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range in the near future. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - New maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added on January 16, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day, petrochemical inventory reduction was good, and the current inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The situation in Iran has cooled down, and the crude oil price has fallen. There has been new plastic production capacity put into operation recently. The plastic supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated downward, closing at 6695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.78%. The trading volume was between 6685 - 6857 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 3981 lots to 471487 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the range of increase or decrease between - 150 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6650 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8900 - 9210 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8290 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On January 16, new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory reduction after the New Year's Day was good, and the current inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $64/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate and consolidate due to factors such as OPEC+ maintaining production plans, high US oil inventories, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and concerns about crude oil demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026 [1] - During the off - peak season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have accumulated more than expected, and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to rise [1][3] - US crude oil production has decreased slightly but remains near the historical high [1][3] - Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchases of Russian oil as required by the US, the US may further increase tariffs on Indian products. India's imports of Russian crude oil in December 2025 fell to a three - year low, down one - third from the peak in June [1] - The crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US are low. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months, leading the market to remain worried about crude oil demand [1] - Exports from the Middle East have increased, and global floating crude oil storage is high. The EIA's January monthly report has raised the surplus of crude oil supply in 2026 [1] - Trump said that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The US Energy Secretary claims that the US will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales [1] - There is unrest in Iran, and Trump has threatened to interfere. The US has not ruled out the possibility of military action, and the geopolitical risk in Iran remains unresolved [1] - The Russia - Ukraine negotiations have not made further progress, and Trump has passed a sanctions bill against Russia, authorizing the imposition of additional tariffs on countries importing Russian oil [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, 2603, fell 3.01% to 438.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 437.1 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 442.5 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 1964 to 41,539 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The IEA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of January 14, EIA data showed that for the week ending January 9, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.702 million barrels), 1.88% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (expected to increase by 3.565 million barrels); refined oil inventories decreased by 29,000 barrels (expected to increase by 512,000 barrels); and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 745,000 barrels [3] - On the supply side, the latest OPEC monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in October was reduced by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its production in November 2025 decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.480 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+'s crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of January 9 decreased by 58,000 barrels per day to 13.753 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [3] 3.4 Consumption Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.67% increase compared to the same period last year, changing from being lower than the same period last year to being higher [4] - Gasoline weekly production increased by 1.64% week - on - week to 8.304 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.495 million barrels per day, the same as the same period last year [4] - Diesel weekly production increased by 28.20% week - on - week to 4.096 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 3.707 million barrels per day, a 2.23% increase compared to the same period last year. The rebound of gasoline and diesel drove the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase by 9.27% week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to see a volatile downward trend in the short - term, but the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to show a relatively strong volatile trend under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream PVC开工率 decreased by 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. Downstream product orders are poor, and the willingness to actively stock up is low. Export orders last week were lower than before New Year's Day, at a general level. The Indian market price is low, and the demand from India is limited. However, there may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when China cancels the export tax rebate for PVC. Social inventories continued to increase last week and are still at a high level, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas is still large. The 30 - city weekly commercial housing transaction area increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is warm, which has boosted the sentiment in the commodity market, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the production expectations of some enterprises have decreased, though the current production decline is limited. The PVC开工率 will change little next week as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan are still under maintenance. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, and downstream buyers are resistant to high prices. With the approaching Spring Festival, procurement enthusiasm is average, and social inventories continue to increase [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2605 contract decreased in an oscillating manner with a position reduction. The lowest price was 4,782 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,886 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,803 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.52%. The position volume decreased by 21,502 lots to 1,020,573 lots [2] - Basis: On January 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,558 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,803 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 253 yuan/ton, strengthening by 35 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by facilities such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC开工率 decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year from Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year from Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of the year. The 300,000 - ton/year production line of Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%, with the residential sales area decreasing by 8.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 11.2%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%, and the new residential construction area decreased by 19.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completed area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%, and the completed residential area decreased by 20.1%. As of the week of January 11, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to focus on the situation in Venezuela and adopt a reverse spread strategy. The supply and demand of asphalt are affected by factors such as refinery production adjustment, downstream construction, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical will switch to asphalt production, while Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical plan to stop production, keeping the asphalt operating rate low [1]. - **Demand Side**: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. A new round of rain and snow is coming, with northern road construction gradually ending and southern projects also entering the final stage, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down [1]. - **Inventory**: The asphalt refinery inventory rate continued to rise week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: The US military action in Venezuela may affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. It is necessary to pay attention to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 1.48% to 3,130 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,123 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,154 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5,652 to 193,865 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 40 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [4]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply - Side Fundamentals**: Refineries such as Liaoning Zhende resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points month - on - month compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 4.7%, a slight decline from - 4.3% in January - October 2025. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 1.1%, a further decline from - 0.1% in January - October 2025. As of the week of January 16, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, and the road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared with January - November, and the recovery of enterprises' medium - and long - term financing demand was still weak [5]. - **Inventory Fundamentals**: As of the week of January 16, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of January 9, and was near the lowest level in recent years [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to trade in a range as its supply - demand pattern improves limitedly and downstream order cycles shorten. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow due to new plastic production capacity and a decline in agricultural film orders [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On January 16th, there were few changes in maintenance units, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropping to around 24% [1][4]. - The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years after good destocking after the New Year's Day holiday. The cost of crude oil has declined as the situation in Iran cools down. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and there are slightly fewer maintenance units recently. Although the downstream BOPP film price rebounded, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased with reduced positions, closing at 6496 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The trading volume was between 6489 - 6604 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5929 lots to 485,733 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6240 - 6680 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 16th, there were few changes in maintenance units. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 24% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The destocking was good after the New Year's Day holiday, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's March contract fell below $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $750 per ton [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the far - month contracts may remain weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report. If the South American harvest progresses well, there is a possibility of further decline [1]. - For the oil sector, there is a possibility of negative factors being exhausted. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - CONAB predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 176.124 million tons, 1.08 million tons lower than last month's forecast but 2.7% higher than the previous year. Export volume is expected to reach 111.79 million tons, slightly lower than last month's forecast. Imports are expected to drop to 500,000 tons, the same as last month's forecast and lower than the 2024/25 season. Ending stocks are adjusted down to 11.3 million tons [1]. - On January 15, US private exporters reported sales of 204,000 tons of US soybeans to China and 545,000 tons to unknown destinations, mostly for delivery in the 2025/26 season [1]. - The market is unclear about the later state - reserve release schedule. Recent auctions of imported soybeans all had premium transactions, indicating a supply gap and strong short - term demand [1]. Oils - The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota by early March, keeping it close to the initial proposal and abandoning the plan to penalize renewable fuel and raw material imports. The US EPA is considering a 2026 biodiesel production of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons [2]. - Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand said that negotiations on reducing Canadian canola tariffs are ongoing and productive [2]. - The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy caused palm oil prices to decline slightly. The rapeseed oil market is waiting for the outcome of China - Canada negotiations on rapeseed imports. The US biofuel policy is becoming clearer, providing psychological support for US fuel merchants [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the cotton market, short - term market drivers are limited. The cotton sector shows a premium regression due to the market decline, but the downside space is relatively limited. Attention should be paid to the support around the 20 - day line [1] - For the sugar market, the basis between sugar futures and spot has basically been repaired. The near - month contracts still face significant supply pressure with weak short - term upward momentum. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets may attract more imports, but the short - term demand boost from the double - festival stocking should be noted, and one may consider buying on dips [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) raised the cotton production forecast for the 2025 - 26 season by 2.5% (750,000 bales, with each bale weighing 170 kg) to 31.7 million bales, based on higher - than - expected yields in Maharashtra and Telangana. CAI expects the cotton surplus in the 2025 - 26 season to be 12.259 million bales, a 56% year - on - year increase due to a record import of 5 million bales this year [1] - Domestic new cotton processing is nearly complete. The sales progress of lint cotton is faster than last year, and the goods are gradually transferred to large traders. The spot basis is firm. The downstream cotton yarn market has little change, with varieties showing differentiation. Spinning mills continue to buy as they use [1] Sugar - As of January 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India, 519 sugar mills have started production. The cumulative crushed sugarcane is 176.374 million tons, an 18.85% increase (27.98 million tons more) compared to the same period last year. The sugar output has reached 15.885 million tons, a 21.63% increase (2.825 million tons more) compared to the same period last year. The sugar - making rate has increased to 9.01%, higher than 8.80% in the same period last year [2] - The estimated cost of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota after tax is 3,933 yuan/ton, and the estimated cost of processed Brazilian sugar outside the quota after tax is 4,993 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota after tax compared to the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,587 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar outside the quota after tax is 527 yuan/ton [2]

2，现货市场：稳中震荡。企业装置运行稳定，检修较少，产量维持高位徘 徊。下游采购情绪不佳，低价补库，随用随采。 【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 16 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带走缩口 喇叭，短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带中轨线附近，支撑关注布林带下轨线 附近。成交量较昨日减 15.6 万手，持仓量较昨日减 26489 手；日内最高 1216， 最低 1182，收盘 1192，（较昨结算价）跌 9 元/吨，跌幅 0.75%。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 58 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 15 日，国内纯碱产量 77.53 万吨，环比+2.17 万吨， 涨幅 2.88%。其中，轻碱产量 36.15 万吨，环比+1.24 万吨；重碱产量 41.38 万 吨，环比+0.93 万吨。综合产能利用率 86.82%，上周 84.39%，环比+2.43%。其 中氨碱产能利用率 89.95%，环比-0.46%；联产产能利用率 78.88%，环比+4.77%。 15 家年产能百万吨及以 ...