【冠通研究】 需求空档期，盘面弱势下行 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 30 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内低开低走，震荡下行。企业前期待发订单充足，暂无销 售压力，市场价格多以稳定为主。基本面来看，目前尿素供应端窄幅波动，部 分企业检修计划有所推迟，总体来说相对充足，后续出口陆续进行，可能有局 部流动性抽调问题。需求端来看，农业经销商开启少量备肥，华北地区正值小 麦收麦时段，收麦完成后将迎来玉米用肥时段。复合肥工厂灵活排产，本周提 升开工率，实行以销定产，后续备肥结束后或稳中下调开工率，对尿素支撑走 弱。上游工厂继续累库，主要系需求端有所走弱，农需恢复后，或有机会去化 库存。综合来看，盘面目前整体偏空，后续或阶段性提振尿素需求，但持续时 间不强，且上方空间不大。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1787 元/吨低开低走，最终收于 1773 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-1.01%，持仓量 225127 手（+5689 手）。前二十名主力持仓 席位来看，多头+10388 手，空头+6899 手。其中，东证期货净多单增加 2783 手、 浙商期货净多单增加 654 手；方正中期货净空单增加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The copper market is affected by repeated tariff policies and market sentiment is weak. The copper price is under pressure due to cooling demand, but the smelting end is tight and the macro - environment is mixed, so the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to whether the US economic data tonight will bring changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high and closed slightly lower today. The US federal court stopped most of Trump's tariffs, but the US appellate court restored them. The market is numb to the repeated tariff policies. The US PCE price index will be announced tonight. The supply is expected to be tight. As of May 23, the TC/RC fees are still negative but the decline has slowed. The domestic refined copper production is at a high level and the supply tension has not been realized. The downstream demand is cooling and the copper price is under pressure, but the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened low, moved low, and fluctuated to close down. The closing price was 77,600. The long positions of the top 20 were 113,430 lots, a decrease of 1,275 lots; the short positions were 119,931 lots, an increase of 137 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was 15 yuan/ton. On May 29, 2025, the LME official price was $9,602/ton, and the spot premium was $39.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 23, the spot TC was -$44.30/ dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.44 cents/lb [6] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 1,963 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 152,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 180,500 short tons, an increase of 27,900 short tons from the previous period [9]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 29 日 热点品种 原油： 雪佛龙此前在委内瑞拉运营的更广泛的许可证到期。美国特朗普政府 5 月 28 日 向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，允许其继续留在委内瑞拉，对设备进行最 低限度的维护，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产石油，这是美国政府对委内瑞拉石油行业 的制裁升级，其目的是避免向委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府支付任何可能的款项。雪 佛龙占委内瑞拉石油产量的五分之一。目前尚不清楚该政策是否会扩展到委内瑞 拉石油行业的其他外国合作伙伴。另外特朗普威胁称可以对伊朗和俄罗斯加大制 裁大幅削减伊朗和俄罗斯石油出口，不过特朗普的威胁只是现在促成美伊核协议 和俄乌停火的谈判手段。5 月 28 日第 39 届 OPEC+部长级会议宣布维持 25-26 年 产量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定 2027 年产量基线，5 月 31 日还将举行 OPEC+自愿减产 8 国会议，届时可能达成 7 月增产 41.1 万桶/日的协 议。目前伊朗和俄罗斯原油出口受制裁影响不 ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market on May 29, 2025, covering futures and spot markets, fundamentals, and related data analysis [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a weak state. Although there may be a phased boost in demand during the summer fertilizer season, the rebound space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by subsequent fertilizer - using conditions [1] Specific Content Summaries Futures Market - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1794 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward during the session, and finally closed at 1784 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The trading volume decreased, with a decrease of 4320 lots in the position to 219438 lots. Among the top twenty major positions, the long position decreased by 6807 lots, and the short position decreased by 3088 lots [2] Spot Market - After the decline of the urea futures market yesterday, the market sentiment cooled down, and the transaction was relatively sluggish. However, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and no sales pressure. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1800 - 1830 yuan/ton [1][4] Fundamental Analysis Supply - On May 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 20.46 tons, remaining flat compared with yesterday. Some enterprises postponed their maintenance plans, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient. There may be local liquidity withdrawal problems with subsequent exports [1][9] Demand - Affected by the futures market, the market trading sentiment was weak. Agricultural dealers started to make small - scale fertilizer reserves. In North China, it was the wheat - harvesting period, and the corn - fertilizing period would follow after the wheat harvest. Compound fertilizer factories adjusted their production flexibly, with some regions increasing the operating rate and some producing according to sales, which supported the short - term strengthening of urea. After the fertilizer reserve period, the operating rate might decline steadily [1] Inventory - Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory mainly due to the weakening of the demand side. There might be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the agricultural demand recovered [1] Downstream Data - From May 23 to May 29, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points from last week [10] Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation declined today, and the futures closing price also dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [7]

【冠通研究】 日内低开低走，关注后续农需启动 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 28 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内低开低走，昨日盘面日内小幅上探后，上游工厂降价吸 单，成交相对顺畅，收够 3-5 天待发，暂时无降价压力，今日盘面连连下跌， 市场情绪降温，短期价格预计稳中下行为主。基本面来看，目前尿素供应端日 产稳定在 20 万吨左右水平，部分企业检修计划有所推迟，总体来说相对充足， 后续出口陆续进行，可能有局部流动性抽调问题。需求端来看，华北地区小麦 收成已过了三成，即将迎来用肥时段，预计农业用肥将陆续展开，目前农需备 肥相对谨慎，暂未大批量集中进行。复合肥工厂终端走货好转，近期开工率或 有提升，阶段性提振尿素需求，但目前成品库存高位，预计尿素需求支撑持续 性有限，后续下月初开工率将逐渐进一步下调。本期上游工厂继续累库，主要 系需求端有所走弱，农需恢复后，或有机会去化库存。综合来看，目前尿素供 需宽松，内需环比转弱，且出口保供稳价政策下上涨动能不足，盘面弱势运行 为主，但目前仍有夏季肥用肥预期，后续农业用肥集中开启，出口消息带来需 求好转，或迎来盘面小幅反弹，空间较为有限，关注 6 月用肥情况及超预期检 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand side is marginally weakening, with downstream purchasers making rigid - need purchases and buying at low prices. As the demand enters the off - season, the downstream's ability to absorb is not strong. The rebound of the US dollar index suppresses copper prices, but the copper ore smelting end is tight. The macro - environment presents a mix of long and short factors, leading to narrow fluctuations in the copper market. It is expected that the copper market will mainly oscillate at a high level, awaiting new market drivers [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened low, then fluctuated and turned positive. Antofagasta offered a copper concentrate TC/RC of -$15 per ton to Chinese smelters this week, indicating a long - term expectation of loose supply in the copper ore segment. The US dollar index rebounded from a low this week, suppressing the upward trend of copper prices. As of May 23, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was -$44.3 per dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was -4.44 cents per pound. Although the TC/RC fees are still negative, the decline has significantly slowed. In April, the output of refined copper was 1.254 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the imported refined copper was 300,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. Downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced copper. After the recent decline in copper prices, the downstream's enthusiasm for restocking has increased, but due to the approaching holiday and the consumption off - season, this enthusiasm is not sustainable [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The market opened low, fluctuated downward, and closed lower, at 78,400. The long positions of the top 20 were 115,017 lots, an increase of 1,825 lots; the short positions were 120,398 lots, an increase of 4,197 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 130 yuan per ton, and in South China was 65 yuan per ton. On May 28, 2025, the LME official price was $9,633 per ton, and the spot premium was $49 per ton [3]. Supply Side - As of May 23, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$44.3 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.44 cents per pound [4]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from the previous period. As of May 26, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 53,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 154,300 tons, a slight decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 179,700 short tons, an increase of 30,400 short tons from the previous period [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shock downward" rating for the PVC industry, suggesting a strategy of "selling high" [1]. 2. Core View - The PVC market is under pressure due to factors such as a decline in upstream calcium carbide prices, a decrease in PVC operating rates, weak downstream demand, export - related policies, and high inventory levels. With the digestion of macro - sentiment and an increase in downstream wait - and - see attitudes, PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is to sell high. Upstream calcium carbide prices in the mainstream areas dropped by 25 - 50 yuan/ton and then stabilized. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 76.19%, remaining at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. After the May Day holiday, downstream PVC operating rates recovered but were still low compared to previous years, with cautious procurement. Indian anti - dumping policies and the upcoming rainy season in India are unfavorable for PVC exports. Social inventory continued to decline last week but remained high. Real estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to April but was still negative year - on - year, and the decline in new construction and completion areas was significant. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period over the years. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces significant pressure [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PVC2509 contract increased in positions and oscillated downward, with a low of 4743 yuan/ton, a high of 4798 yuan/ton, and a final close of 4758 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, a decline of 1.02%. The open interest increased by 24,833 lots to 1,043,359 lots [2]. - **Basis**: On May 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2509 contract was 4758 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 108 yuan/ton, strengthening by 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Yihua and other plants were shut down for maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 76.19%, remaining at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, in 2024, Zhejiang Zhengyang's 300,000 - ton/year production capacity was fully put into production in April, Shaanxi Jintai's 600,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in two phases (300,000 tons/year in June and the remaining 300,000 tons/year in September), and Xinpu Chemical's 250,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in late December. Another 250,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in February 2025. Attention should be paid to the progress of Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 - ton/year production capacity expected to be put into production around June - July 2025 [4]. - **Demand**: Real estate data showed slight improvement but was still negative year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The sales area of commercial housing was 282.62 million square meters, a decrease of 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume was 270.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% year - on - year. The new construction area of houses was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8% year - on - year, and the completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% year - on - year. As of the week of May 25, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 9.81% week - on - week but was still at a low level in the same period over the years. The impact of real estate favorable policies on commercial housing sales needs to be observed [1][5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 22, PVC social inventory decreased by 2.84% week - on - week to 623,300 tons, 29.49% lower than the same period last year. Although the inventory continued to decline, it remained high [6].

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 28 日 热点品种 沪铜： 沪铜今日高开低走震荡收跌。国家统计局数据显示，1—4 月份，全国规模以上工 业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同比增长1.4%。其中，汽车制造业下降5.1%。 美联储对于利率稳定的预期有所加强，美元指数小幅反弹压制铜价。刚果大型铜 矿（卡库拉）因地震停产，并撤回 2025 年产量指引，加深矿端供应趋紧预期。 供给方面，截止 5 月 23 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)-44.3 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.44 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放缓，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅 检修，主要系长协订单及副产品弥补亏损，但利润负值状态下，市场偏紧预期依 然存在。4 月精炼铜(电解铜)产量 125.4 万吨，同比增加 9%;进口精炼铜数量 30.02 万吨，同比降低 11.97%，国内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增加， ...

Group 1: Hot News - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 211.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. However, the automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 5.1%, the oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 6.9%, the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 48.9%, the oil, coal and other fuel processing industry saw an increased loss year-on-year, and the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from loss to profit year-on-year [1] - Multiple car companies have recently launched price promotion activities, compressing the profit margins of upstream enterprises to 10% and extending the payment period to 120 days. Industry insiders believe the "price war" may lead to supplier losses and car quality and safety issues [1] - In May, US consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98, higher than all economists' expectations [1] - US President Trump expressed encouragement for the EU to accelerate trade negotiations. The EU is seeking to speed up trade talks with the US, focusing on key industries, tariffs, and non-tariff barriers. White House Economic Council Director Hasset said that tariffs of some countries may be reduced to 10% or lower, and a trade agreement with India is nearly completed [1] Group 2: Sector Performance Night - Market Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.73%, precious metals rose 30.37%, oilseeds rose 12.05%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 13.49%, energy rose 2.50%, chemicals rose 13.10%, grains rose 1.62%, agricultural and sideline products rose 2.78%, soft commodities rose 2.46%, and non - ferrous metals rose 18.90% [2][3] Key Sectors to Watch - Rubber, caustic soda, glass, rapeseed meal, and urea [2] Group 3: Sector Positions - The document shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions (in lots) for multiple sectors including agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal, coke, steel and minerals, non - ferrous metals, soft commodities, oilseeds, precious metals, and non - metallic building materials [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18%, the SSE 50 fell 0.52%, the CSI 300 fell 0.54%, the CSI 500 fell 0.31%, the S&P 500 rose 2.05%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.43%, the German DAX rose 0.83%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.51%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.69% [5] Fixed - Income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.11%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% [5] Commodities - The CRB commodity index fell 0.64%, WTI crude oil fell 0.65%, London spot gold fell 1.25%, LME copper fell 0.15%, and the Wind commodity index fell 1.27% [5] Others - The US dollar index rose 0.64%, and the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged [5]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/28 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.27%报 3299.70 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.77%报 33.39 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价走弱，美油主力合约收跌 0.75%，报 61.07 美元/桶；布伦特原油主 力合约跌 0.56%，报 63.76 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌不一，LME 期铝涨 0.79%报 2483.00 美元/吨，LME 期 锌涨 0.28%报 2709.00 美元/吨，LME 期铅跌 0.13%报 1988.50 美元/吨，LME 期 铜跌 0.15%报 9596.00 美元/吨。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大豆期货涨 0.17%报 1062.00 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌 0.27%报 458.25 美分/蒲式耳，小麦 期货跌 2.58%报 528.50 美分/蒲式耳。 5. 国内期货主力合约夜盘跌多涨少。橡胶跌超 2%，20 ...