Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term oscillatory outlook for coke, with a low - buying strategy [2] Core Viewpoints - Coke's supply - demand pattern is affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policies. Coking coal inventory is lower than usual, while coke inventory is at a moderately high level, with overall weak supply - demand. The seasonal inventory build - up of downstream steel mills and the increase in hot metal production have boosted short - term demand for coking coal and coke. With a positive macro - market atmosphere and domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts, coke is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of January 9, independent coking enterprises' coke inventory decreased by 6.04% to 86.07 million tons, steel mills' coke inventory increased by 0.27% to 645.73 million tons, port coke inventory rose to 249.1 million tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 2.22 million tons to 980.9 million tons, reaching a 3 - month high and a year - on - year decrease of over 1% [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 45 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 30 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 17 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 86 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 9 yuan/ton [1] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.37% to 79.31%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.78% to 86.04%, the steel mill profitability decreased by 0.44% to 37.66%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to increase by 2.07 million tons to 229.5 million tons, reaching a one - month high and a year - on - year increase of 5.13 million tons or 2.29% [1] Upstream Situation - Coal mine coking coal inventory continued to increase slightly, port inventory increased by 551.96 million tons, independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory increased to 1071.68 million tons, and steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased by 797.73 million tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2716.37 million tons, reaching a nearly 9 - month high, with a year - on - year decrease of over 15% [2] News - The central bank will lower the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points from January 19; there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year; the central bank will consider conducting treasury bond trading operations; promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery is an important consideration for monetary policy; the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages is reduced to 30% [2] - The financial regulatory authority will promote the regular operation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and support the resolution of financing platform debt risks in accordance with the law [2] - China's M2 money supply annual rate in December was 8.5%, higher than the expected 8% and the previous value of 8% [2] Main Logic - Coke's supply - demand pattern is affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policies. Coking coal inventory is lower than usual, while coke inventory is at a moderately high level, with overall weak supply - demand. The seasonal inventory build - up of downstream steel mills and the increase in hot metal production have boosted short - term demand for coking coal and coke. With a positive macro - market atmosphere and domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts, coke is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [2] Futures Market Performance - The opening price of the coke main contract was 1741, the closing price was 1717, the intraday position increased by 1479 lots, the previous low was 1625.5, and the previous high was 1817.5. Attention should be paid to the support of the previous low and the pressure of the previous high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of the breeding industry chain, including soybeans, corn, eggs, and pigs, providing corresponding investment suggestions based on different product situations, such as soybeans continuing to fluctuate, corn having buying opportunities on dips, eggs having potential in the medium - long term and trying to buy at relatively low points, and pig futures suggesting buying on dips in the far - month contracts [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - Northeast soybean spot prices are high, with a tight supply of high - protein soybeans, and the price of 39% protein commercial beans is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - The two - way bidding transaction of 30,000 tons of domestic soybeans organized by Sinograin on Tuesday was fully completed [1]. - The market demand has some support, but the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans on the futures market exceeds 800 yuan per ton, and if the domestic soybean price rises further, the demand will be affected. It is estimated that soybeans will continue to fluctuate [1]. Corn - The current corn spot is in a situation of volatile upward movement. In the Northeast, due to the reduction of farmers' remaining grain, the window period for farmers to sell grain is short, and the enthusiasm for selling grain is weak. The supply of corn at the grass - roots level is tight [1]. - On the demand side, due to the increase in imported and policy - based corn supply, the difficulty for enterprises to purchase has decreased slightly. Enterprises are not willing to accept high - priced grain sources, and the mainstream quotation is relatively stable. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [1]. Eggs - Since July 2025, the sample chicken - chick replenishment volume (accounting for 50% of the actual replenishment) has declined year - on - year, with the decline rate increasing month by month in the second half of the year. From August to December, the year - on - year decline rates of monthly chicken - chick sales were 9.4%, 14.1%, 12.7%, 13.4%, and 13.9% respectively [2]. - It is estimated that from January to May 2026, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain at a low level. The low replenishment in the second half of 2025 will significantly reduce the pressure on newly - opened laying hens in the first half of 2026 [2]. - The short - term upward space of eggs is suppressed by the loose spot market, but in the medium - long term, the price does not allow excessive short - selling. Pay attention to capacity reduction and try to buy at relatively low points [2]. Pigs - In 2025, the actual total出栏量 of domestic pig - breeding enterprises increased steadily, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared with 131.6 million heads in 2024. The出栏量 showed significant pre - festival and post - festival differences and seasonal characteristics [3]. - The current pig supply is in the stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. The appropriate reduction of the breeding sow inventory lays a foundation for medium - long - term supply - demand balance. The market will still face short - term structural pressure, but the supply pattern is expected to gradually re - balance in 2026 [4]. - The capacity reduction of pigs is accelerating obviously, indicating an upward price expectation for the far - month contracts. It is recommended to mainly buy on dips in the far - month contracts [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. Anti-involution policies still hold potential, providing strong downside support. The weekly apparent demand has rebounded, remaining strong year-on-year, indicating robust demand resilience during the off-season. The warming sentiment of winter storage may stimulate a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high, it has been continuously decreasing recently, and if this trend continues, the pressure will ease. The hot-rolled coil futures are currently trading strongly above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, it should be noted that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. 3. Summary of Each Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume and open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased on Friday. The intraday price fluctuated within a narrow range, with the lowest price at 3308 yuan and the highest at 3344 yuan. It closed at 3315 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The short-term moving average retraced to the support level around the 10-day moving average and then rebounded, and it is trading strongly above the medium-term 20-day moving average [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the futures and spot prices is -5 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of January 15, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared with the previous week, but decreased by 11.83 million tons year-on-year. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production by steel mills after annual maintenance [4]. - Demand side: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons, showing a significant rebound this week and an increase of 0.51 million tons year-on-year. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that the demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory side: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons on a weekly basis (the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons). The total inventory continued to decline, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the de-stocking trend continues, the downward pressure on prices will be reduced [4]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. The government also aims to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The sentiment in the copper market remains low. The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and continued to decline during the day. Although the supply is tight, the copper futures are still prone to rising and difficult to fall. The terminal demand maintains strong growth, but the copper products sector is cautious overall. After the copper price correction, the downstream purchasing willingness has increased [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The copper smelters cannot obtain profits through long - term contracts, and in the spot market, it remains weak and stable. By - products such as sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit points. The refined - scrap copper price difference has weakened but is still abnormal. The substitution advantage of scrap copper is significant, but the downstream demand is weak, and scrap copper transactions are also blocked. In January 2026, the refined copper production is expected to decline, and the merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may increase their control of the global copper resource supply to 15%, highlighting the tight supply expectation [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and declined during the day - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 115 yuan/ton. On January 15, 2026, the LME official price is 13145 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is + 60 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of January 15, the latest data shows that the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.80 US cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 160400 tons, a decrease of 2300 tons from the previous period. As of January 15, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 105600 tons, a decrease of 5400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 141100 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 538700 short tons, an increase of 5130 short tons from the previous period [9]

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 3，基差：期货贴水现货 137 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面冬 储有一定性价比。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 15 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 0.74 万吨至 190.3 万吨，连续四周回升之后开始小幅回落，公历同比下降 2.99 万吨，Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.84%，环比上周减少 0.47 个百分点，同比去 年增加 1.66 个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 85.48%，环比上周减少 0.56 个百分点，同比去年增加 1.20 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 39.83%，环比上周增 加 2.17 个百分点，同比去年减少 10.39 个百分点；日均铁水产量 228.01 万 吨，环比上周减少 1.49 万吨。本周产量出现回落，螺纹周产量相比近几年 仍然偏低。一定程度支撑价格。 需求端：表需回升，冬储可能开始，截至 1 月 15 日当周，表观消费 量周环比上升 15.38 万吨至 190.34 万吨，年同比增加 5.19 万吨，表需连续 三周下降之后开始大幅回升，冬储需求可能启动。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash & Glass Industry Chain Weekly Data" [1] - Report Date: January 16, 2026 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Weekly Data Supply -开工率 increased from 84.39% to 86.82%, a week - on - week increase of 2.43% [2] -产量 rose from 75.36 tons to 77.53 tons, an increase of 2.17 tons [2] -重质产量 increased from 40.45 tons to 41.38 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons [2] -轻质产量 increased from 34.91 tons to 36.15 tons, an increase of 1.24 tons [2] Inventory -厂内库存 increased from 157.27 tons to 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons [2] -重质库存 increased from 73.62 tons to 73.8 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons [2] -轻质库存 increased from 83.65 tons to 83.7 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons [2] -库存可用天数 increased from 13.04 days to 13.06 days, an increase of 0.02 days [2] Profit -产销率 increased from 78.18% to 99.7%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52% [2] -氨碱法毛利 decreased from - 57.85 yuan/ton to - 96.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.45 yuan/ton [2] -联产法毛利 decreased from - 40 yuan/ton to - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton [2] Basis & Spread -基差 decreased from - 40 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] -1 - 5价差 decreased from 83 yuan/ton to 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [2] Variety Arbitrage -纯碱 - 玻璃01价差 increased from 143 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [2] -纯碱 - 玻璃05价差 increased from 76 yuan/ton to 107 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Glass Weekly Data Supply -开工率 decreased from 71.954% to 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.574% [2] -产线条数 remained unchanged at 212 [2] -产量 decreased from 105.9245 tons to 105.2315 tons, a decrease of 0.693 tons [2] Inventory -库存 decreased from 5551.8 tons to 5301.3 tons, a decrease of 250.5 tons [2] -库存可用天数 decreased from 24.1 days to 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days [2] Profit -天然气利润 increased from - 186.4 yuan/ton to - 164.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton [2] -石油焦利润 increased from - 5.78 yuan/ton to 3.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [2] -煤制气利润 increased from - 73.83 yuan/ton to - 69.01 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.82 yuan/ton [2] Basis & Spread -基差 increased from - 153 yuan/ton to - 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton [2] -1 - 5价差 decreased from 150 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 16555.1 319.89 9262.22 281.84 2920.4 39.66 228.01 78.84 85.48 39.83 7.00 上期 16275.26 323.27 8989.59 283.28 2756.4 38.84 229.5 79.31 86.04 37.66 8.00 周变动 279.84 -3.38 272.63 -1.44 164.00 0.82 -1.49 -0.47 -0.56 2.17 -1.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 12480.26 2154.13 391 1529.71 本期 10947.85 5707.14 7389.21 上期 12352.32 2115.38 344.79 1462.77 上期 10751.81 5663.9 7185.34 周变动 127.94 38.75 46.21 66.94 周变动 196.04 43.24 203.87 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料 我公 ...

| | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 上证指数 | 日涨跌幅% -0.33 | 月内涨跌幅% 3.62 | 年内涨跌幅（%） 3.62 | 近一年走势 | | | 上证50 沪深300 | -0.21 0.20 | 2.46 2.62 | 2.46 2.62 | | | | 中证500 | -0.05 | 10.15 | 10.15 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.26 | 1.45 | 1.45 | | | | 恒生指数 | -0.28 | 5.05 | 5.05 | | | | 德国DAX | 0.26 | 3.52 | 3.52 | | | | 日经225 | -0.42 | 7.49 | 7.49 | | | | 英国富时100 | 0.54 | 3.10 | 3.10 | | | | 10年期国债期货 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.16 | | | 固收类 | 5年期国债期货 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | | 2年期国债期货 | 0.04 | -0.08 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: WTI crude oil futures fell 4.38% to $59.17 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures dropped 4.06% to $63.82 per barrel [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures declined 0.33% to $4620.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.90% to $92.21 per ounce [5]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals declined, with LME zinc up 1.14% at $3313.5 per ton, LME lead up 0.87% at $2096.5 per ton, LME copper down 0.30% at $13148.5 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.46% at $3171.5 per ton, LME nickel down 0.56% at $18590.0 per ton, and LME tin down 1.29% at $52775.0 per ton [5]. 2. Important News **Macro News** - US initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November, below all expectations [8]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the central bank should focus on reducing inflation, maintaining the expectation of a possible rate cut later this year [8]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in relending and rediscount rates starting January 19, 2026 [8]. **Energy Futures** - As of January 15, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight cases, down 4.51% week - on - week, falling for three consecutive weeks [10]. - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, up 0.66% from Monday [12]. - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all reached multi - week highs as of January 14 [12]. - Qatar cut the March futures price of Al - Shaheen crude oil to a discount of 33 cents per barrel to Dubai quotes [13]. - US natural gas inventories decreased by 71 billion cubic feet to 3.185 trillion cubic feet in the week ended January 9, up 1.0% year - on - year [13]. **Metal Futures** - In 2025, global gold ETF inflows reached $89 billion, and the total AUM grew to $559 billion, with total holdings hitting a record high of 4025 tons [15]. - Vale Indonesia received approval for its 2026 mining quota and resumed normal operations [15]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit, margin ratio, and daily trading volume limit for tin futures contracts starting January 15 [15]. - Goldman Sachs said if Indonesia tightens its 2026 nickel mining quota to 260 million tons, the average nickel price could be close to $18,000 per ton [17]. **Black Futures** - In early January, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises increased 21.6% week - on - week, and the estimated national daily output of crude steel rose 22.8% [19]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 65 yuan/ton this week [19]. - As of January 15, the output and factory inventory of rebar decreased, while social inventory increased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand increased [19]. - In early January, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased 6.4% from the previous ten - day period [20]. - CICC believes that the steel industry will still face demand reduction and structural adjustment in 2026, with limited improvement in supply - demand and profitability [20]. **Agricultural Futures** - CONAB forecasts Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to reach 176.1244 million tons, up 2.7% year - on - year [23]. - US 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 2.062 million tons last week, up from 878,000 tons the previous week [24]. - The IGC expects global 2025/26 soybean production to increase by 1 million tons to 427 million tons, with consumption rising by 1 million tons to 432 million tons [24]. - Private exporters reported soybean and corn sales for the 2025/2026 season [24]. - The Trump administration is advancing biofuel policies and may finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas in early March [24]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 increased by 17.53% - 18.64% compared to the same period last month [25]. - US December 2025 soybean crush was 224.991 million bushels, and soybean oil inventory was 1.642 billion pounds [25]. 3. Financial Markets **Financial Sector** - A - shares showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up [28]. - Hong Kong stocks declined, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.28% [28]. - Some brokers reported tight margin trading quotas, and there were large differences in margin trading interest rates among brokers [28]. - On January 15, 21 ETFs had trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan [29]. - The Huaxia Gold ETF's circulation scale reached 100.762 billion yuan on January 14, becoming the first 100 - billion - level gold ETF in China [29]. - Three companies passed the listing review of the Beijing Stock Exchange in the first half - month of 2026 [29]. **Industrial Sector** - China will expand service - sector opening - up in 2026, including value - added telecommunications, biotechnology, and foreign - owned hospitals [31]. - State Grid will invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, up 40% from the previous period [32]. - In 2025, over 5500 idle land parcels were planned to be acquired using special bonds, with a total value exceeding 750 billion yuan [32]. - The 2026 Commercial Space Industry Development Conference will be held in Shenzhen on March 17 - 18 [32]. - Some small and medium - sized banks are offering deposit gifts and slightly raising deposit rates [32]. - Baoneng Group's Chairman Yao Zhenhua accused the Changshu court of illegal actions in a 270 - million - yuan execution case, but the local government denied the accusation [32]. **Overseas Sector** - US President Trump wants a "quick and decisive" military strike against Iran, and the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is being deployed to the Middle East [34]. - Trump has no plan to fire Fed Chair Powell and is considering Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as potential successors [34]. - US initial jobless claims dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November [35]. - Some Fed officials are inclined to maintain interest rates and may consider a mild rate cut later this year [35]. - Japan's opposition parties are considering forming a new party to compete in the upcoming elections [35]. - The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% [35]. - The Bank of Japan may re - evaluate its interest - rate hike timing due to exchange - rate factors [36]. - Chinese citizens can enter the Philippines visa - free for up to 14 days starting January 16 [38]. **International Stock Markets** - US stocks rose slightly, with the Dow up 0.6%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq up 0.25% [39]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.26%, the French CAC40 down 0.21%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.54% [39]. - Asian stocks were mixed, with the South Korean KOSPI up 1.58% and the Japanese Nikkei 225 down 0.42% [39]. - Goldman Sachs' Q4 2025 revenue decreased 3% to $13.5 billion, but its stock - trading revenue set a record [40]. - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2025 revenue was $17.89 billion, up 10.3% year - on - year [41]. - US six major banks paid over $140 billion in dividends and repurchased stocks in 2025, and the trend is expected to continue [41]. **Commodity Markets** - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for tin futures [43]. - There was a reported "silver merchant default case" in Shenzhen's Shuibei market, with an alleged value of 200 million yuan [43]. - Oil prices fell due to expected increased Venezuelan production, easing Middle - East tensions, and rising US crude inventories [43]. - Precious metals prices were affected by Fed officials' hawkish signals and strong US economic data [44]. - Trump's administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals and will seek bilateral negotiations [45]. - The EU will lower the price cap on Russian oil from $47.6 to $44.1 per barrel starting February 1 [47]. **Bond Markets** - China extended tax - exemption policies for foreign institutions investing in domestic bonds until December 31, 2027 [48]. - China's inter - bank bond market rebounded, and Vanke's bonds rose significantly [48]. - As of December 2025, foreign institutions held 3.46 trillion yuan of Chinese inter - bank bonds, accounting for about 2% of the total [49]. - Holders of Vanke's mid - term notes proposed four repayment plans [49]. - US Treasury yields rose across the board [49]. - In November 2025, overseas investors net - bought $85.6 billion of US Treasuries, with China reducing its holdings and Japan increasing [51]. - Goldman Sachs will issue $16 billion of investment - grade bonds [52]. - In 2025, overseas investors net - bought 147.1 trillion won ($100.1 billion) of South Korean bonds, up 96.4% from 2024 [52]. **Foreign Exchange Markets** - China's central bank official said there is no need for China to devalue the yuan for trade advantages, and the yuan is expected to fluctuate [53]. - China's foreign exchange market trading volume reached $42.6 trillion in 2025, and the corporate hedging ratio rose to 30% [53]. - The on - shore yuan rose against the US dollar on Thursday [53]. - The US dollar index rose 0.28% in New York trading, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [53]. - South Korea established a task force to crack down on illegal foreign - exchange trading [55].

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：下游需求跟进，盘面支撑强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 15 日 【行情分析】 尿素高开高走，日内偏强，现货报价上涨，且工厂出现停售现象，未来几 天收单加持下，报价将趋于稳定。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂 价格范围多在 1700-1730 元/吨。基本面来看，气头装置依然继续停车降产中， 但煤头装置产能占比连年上涨后，冲抵部分冬季限产的影响，元旦复工以来， 尿素日产稳步增加，近期维持在 19-20 万吨附近，近期下游需求明显好转，一 方面期货火热情绪的传导，另一方面，农业需求备肥拿货有所增加。工业需求 复合肥工厂及三聚氰胺开工负荷均有不同程度的抬升，复合肥开工率增加 2.91%至 40.08%，本期提升主要系前期停车企业的复产，临近假期，开工高位 持续时间有限，即将进入淡季回落期，厂内成品库存稳步增加，冬储肥正常推 进中，三聚氰胺开工率增加 7.83%至 62.18%。本期库存转为去化，冬储农业需 求推荐有增加，今日数据显示库存去化至 100 万吨以下，环比减少 3.53%。综 合来看，尿素。综合来看，尿素上涨步伐放缓，但临近农需旺季阶段，库存低 位支撑盘面，尿素中 ...