Report Summary 1. Hot News - Li Qiang chaired a meeting of the leading group for the compilation of the Outline Draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan, emphasizing the planning of major projects to boost future development and current economic stability [2] - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively for seven consecutive months [2] - Four futures exchanges will temporarily exempt certain handling fees for most futures varieties from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, and the China Financial Futures Exchange will halve some handling fees [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said the need for a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut has weakened [2] - US President Trump will meet with senior national security officials, and Russia's Foreign Ministry is evacuating the families of diplomats in Venezuela [2] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: silver, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, Shanghai nickel, and PVC [3] - Night trading performance: different commodity futures sectors showed varying degrees of increase, with the precious metals sector leading at 33.87%, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector at 24.53%, and the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector at 10.46% [3] 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data is not described in text [4] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Annual Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.69 | 0.74 | 16.87 | | | SSE 50 | 0.53 | 1.70 | 12.49 | | | CSI 300 | 0.95 | 1.88 | 17.20 | | | CSI 500 | 1.20 | 3.19 | 26.72 | | | S&P 500 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 16.95 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.43 | - 0.22 | 28.62 | | | German DAX | - 0.05 | 1.85 | 21.94 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.81 | 0.30 | 26.34 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.32 | 1.50 | 20.71 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.09 | 0.04 | - 0.87 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.06 | 0.11 | - 0.64 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.02 | 0.08 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | WTI Crude Oil | 2.49 | - 0.80 | - 19.45 | | | London Spot Gold | 2.37 | 5.34 | 69.35 | | | LME Copper | 0.25 | 6.58 | 35.64 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 4.40 | 12.78 | 50.89 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.46 | - 1.19 | - 9.42 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 8.81 | - 14.06 | [5] 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents charts of stock market risk preference and major commodity trends, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, and agricultural futures, but specific data is not described in text [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial and commodity markets, along with significant macro - economic, industrial, and policy news, offering a multi - faceted view of market trends and potential investment opportunities [3][7][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - market Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.13% at $4480.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.37% at $69.09 per ounce [4] - US oil and Brent crude oil futures both increased, with US oil up 2.53% at $57.95 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.45% at $61.52 per barrel [5] - London base metals showed mixed results, with some rising and some falling [5] - Most domestic futures contracts closed higher, with PVC, fuel oil, etc. rising, while ethylene glycol (EG) fell nearly 1% [5] Important News Macro News - Li Qiang emphasized planning major projects in the '15th Five - Year Plan' to boost future development and current economic stability [8] - The PBOC kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged for seven consecutive months [9] - Multiple futures exchanges will adjust fee policies from January 1, 2026 [9] - Fed Governor Milan said the need for a 50 - basis - point rate cut has weakened [10] - Trump will meet with national security officials, and Russia is evacuating diplomats' families from Venezuela [11] - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 5.2% [13] - LME plans to introduce option auto - expiration and e - option trading in 2026 [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were cut on December 22 [15] - Jiangsu's styrene port inventory increased [15] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory rose slightly [15] - Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased [16] Metal Futures - The SHFE adjusted trading rules for silver futures [18] - The first - quarter long - term price of a large Guinean mine decreased [18] - Global and Chinese primary aluminum production data were released [20] - The non - ferrous metal industry maintained growth [20] - Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China decreased [20] - The GZEX adjusted the delivery rules for lithium carbonate and polysilicon futures [21] - The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs increased [21] Black - series Futures - Multiple departments launched inspections on illegal mining [23] - Global and Australian - Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased [25] - China's port arrival volume of iron ore decreased [25] - Coke purchase prices in Shandong and Hebei markets were cut [25] - A silicon - manganese alloy plant in Inner Mongolia plans to expand production [26] Agricultural Product Futures - US soybean export data showed growth [28] - Malaysia's palm oil market is expected to stabilize in 2026 [30] - Domestic soybean crushing volume increased [30] - Malaysian palm oil export and production data for December showed changes [31] - Sugar production data in Guangxi and India were reported [31] - Brazil's soybean production forecast was raised [33] - Brazil's soybean sowing rate and shipping data were updated [34] Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose with increased trading volume, and the HSI also increased [36] - The exchanges announced holidays for 2026 [37] - Shenzhen's M&A market and Shanghai's refinancing market showed good performance [38] - Goldman Sachs analysts expect Chinese stocks to continue rising [38] - But Bin is optimistic about the A - share AI industry [39] Industry - China and relevant parties negotiated on the semiconductor supply chain [40] - China imposed anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products [40] - Guangzhou proposed plans for horse - racing and e - sports industries [42] - Many Sino - Japanese flights were cancelled [42] - Shenzhen expanded the housing voucher resettlement pilot [42] - Some land auctions in Guangzhou failed [42] - Domestic refined oil prices dropped for the third consecutive time [43] - A 70 - billion financial product of Jinyafu defaulted [43] - The market regulator reformed the CCC certification [43] Overseas - Ukraine and the US completed the initial draft of a 'peace plan' [45] - Trump will appoint a new Fed chair [45] - Fed Governor Milan warned of recession risks without rate cuts [45] - The Trump administration increased cash subsidies for illegal immigrants' voluntary departure [45] - The EU extended sanctions against Russia and introduced anti - circumvention measures [45] - India and New Zealand reached a free trade agreement [46] Commodity - The SHFE adjusted trading fees for silver futures to cool the market [50] - International precious metal futures rose due to policy expectations and geopolitical risks [50] - Crude oil futures prices rose due to supply concerns in Venezuela [51] - London base metals showed mixed trends [52] Bond - China's bond market weakened, and institutions adjusted their bond allocations [53] - Insurance companies accelerated bond issuance [53] - US bond yields rose [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB rose against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell [56] - Japan and South Korea warned against currency speculation [56] Upcoming Events - The RBA will release its December monetary policy meeting minutes [58] - The PBOC will have 1353 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due [58] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference [58] - Multiple conferences and events will take place [58] - New stocks will be listed and申购 [58] - The Bank of Canada will release its monetary policy meeting minutes [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the urea price rebounded due to the stimulation of the Indian tender, but the fundamentals weakened month - on - month, and the urea rebound is expected to lack momentum. The supply pressure remains high, the domestic demand support is weak, and the inventory reduction is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - The Indian tender within the week stimulated the market sentiment, and the spot market was booming. Some factories stopped selling. After the sentiment subsided, they still held firm prices due to sufficient previous orders. Since the weekend, the spot price has been stable, but new orders have poor transactions [1][3][4]. 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price fluctuated. As of December 22, the main May contract of urea closed at 1,698 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 15. The weekly trading volume was 12.4339 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3302 million tons; the open interest was 5.6822 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5406 million tons. The urea futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. As of December 22, the 05 contract basis was - 8 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 3 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 16 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 25 yuan/ton. On December 22, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10,881, a week - on - week decrease of 364 [6][8]. 3.3 Urea Supply Side - Last week, the weekly urea output decreased month - on - month. From December 11 to December 17, the weekly urea output was 1.3659 million tons, a decrease of 0.0195 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%. The average daily output was 195,100 tons. Among them, the coal - based weekly output was 1.1667 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%; the gas - based weekly output was 0.1992 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The small - particle weekly output was 109,130 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.99%; the large - particle weekly output was 27,460 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. It is expected that 2 enterprises will stop production in the next cycle. The daily urea output on December 22 was 196,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 81.02%. The coal price declined slightly, and the domestic LNG price decreased by 4.77% week - on - week. The synthetic ammonia price and the methanol spot price also declined [12][14][15]. 3.4 Urea Demand Side - As of December 22, the 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer price remained unchanged week - on - week. After the supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policy, the probability of the raw material price continuing to rise is low. The compound fertilizer factory operating rate was 39.37%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.25%. From December 12 to December 19, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from the previous period and 2.35 percentage points higher year - on - year. As of December 19, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 0.0545 million tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2921 million tons. The port sample inventory was 138,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous week [17][19]. 3.5 International Market - India's urea sales in December may approach 6 million tons, setting a new monthly sales record. Affected by the sudden Indian tender, the international urea price rose. In November 2025, China's urea exports were 601,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95%; the export average price was 424.76 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50.80%. As of December 19, the FOB prices of small - particle and large - particle urea in different regions showed different degrees of increase or decrease [21][23].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 22 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。集运指数（欧 ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1730 1730 0 河南 1690 1690 0 山东 1730 1710 20 山西 1560 1560 0 江苏 1720 1700 20 安徽 1700 1700 0 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1720 1720 0 山东华鲁 1690 1690 0 江苏灵谷 1750 1730 20 安徽昊源 1670 1670 0 山东05基差 2 7 -5 山东01基差 10 3 7 河北05基差 12 27 -15 河北01基差 20 23 -3 1-5价差 51 37 14 5-9价差 8 -4 12 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 10881 10976 -95 中东FOB 378.5 367 12 美湾FOB 368.5 353 16 埃及FOB 435 437.5 -3 波罗的海FOB 365 352.5 13 巴西CFR 402.5 397.5 5 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 2025/12/22 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Macro and Commodity Weekly Report - Report Author: Wang Jing - Release Date: December 22, 2025 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Market Summary - Overseas, Japan's interest rate hike was uneventful, and the competition for the Fed Chair heated up. The market showed a dull performance approaching the year - end. Investors were cautious, the VIX index declined slightly, and risk - assets were mixed. Global stocks and commodities mostly fell, A - shares oscillated and pulled back, and the BDI index continued to decline. Commodities were under pressure with internal style transformation. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals weakened, oil prices remained weak, and the black series rebounded strongly [5][8]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded with short - term weakness and long - term strength. Stock indices oscillated and were mostly down, with the growth - style stocks underperforming value - style stocks, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rising against the trend. The domestic commodity sectors showed mixed performance. The weekly change of the Wind Commodity Index was 1.5%, with 5 out of 10 commodity sub - indices rising and 5 falling. The black series was strong, with the coal, coke, steel, and ore and non - metallic building materials sectors rising over 4%. The chemical sector followed, while precious metals barely rose, and soft commodities were nearly flat. Other sectors fell, especially the oilseeds, grains, and agricultural products sectors. Non - ferrous metals turned down, and the energy sector continued to slump [5][14]. - In the futures market capital aspect, the overall capital of the commodity futures market slightly flowed out. The agricultural products and soft commodities sectors saw obvious capital inflows, while many sectors had capital outflows, with significant outflows in the non - metallic building materials, energy, and grain sectors [16]. 2. Volatility and Interest Rate Expectations - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index slightly increased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a small upward volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index declined. By sector, the volatility of commodity futures sectors was mixed, with obvious volatility declines in the energy and oilseeds sectors and notable increases in the non - ferrous and soft commodities sectors [6][22]. - According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in January was 75.2%, little changed from last week's 72.7%. The probability of a 25 - bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remained below 30%. The market expected 1 - 3 rate cuts in 2026 [6]. 3. Upcoming Events - Due to the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, macro - economic data is scarce this week. The focus will be on a small amount of US economic data, especially GDP data. The initial estimate of US Q3 GDP will be released on December 23. Investors will assess the US economic performance and look for clues about the Fed's next rate - cut time. In addition, investors will seek guidance on the Bank of Japan's policy path from Governor Ueda Kazuo's speech on December 25 and the release of the meeting's opinion summary on December 29. The US stock market will close three hours early on December 24 and be closed on December 25 [7]. 4. Fed Chair Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the "insider" most likely to be nominated, is an economic policy "spokesperson" and political ally of Trump. He publicly supports rate cuts and has criticized the Fed's past policies [70]. - Kevin Warsh, the "returner" favored by Wall Street, has Fed experience and is strongly supported by the financial community. He has publicly advocated rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [71]. - Christopher Waller, the "dark horse" with solid policy experience, is a current Fed governor. He has rational and consistent policy discussions on rate cuts and has promoted conservative reforms within the Fed [72]. 5. Other Key Information - US inflation data for November was lower than expected, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and the core CPI rising 2.6%. Many economists were puzzled by this, and the data was affected by the government shutdown [77]. - On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%. However, Governor Ueda Kazuo's cautious remarks on policy prospects pressured the yen, and the lack of a clear future rate - hike schedule confused investors. The market expects the Bank of Japan's future tightening to be gradual [84]. - This week's key economic data and events include UK Q3 GDP final value, US Q3 GDP initial estimate, and speeches from central bank governors [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market remains in a state of oversupply, but the recent escalation of the geopolitical situation in Venezuela and the continued delay of the restart of the Caspian Alliance Pipeline No. 3 SPM suggest a temporary wait - and - see approach [4] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increase in Q1 next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the drawdown of US crude oil inventories was slightly better than expected, but the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories increased. US crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and there are positive progress in the peace talks. The risk premium of Russian crude oil due to sanctions continues to decline, and the crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the US continue to fall. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and the US has imposed new sanctions on Venezuela, which may lead to concerns about export disruptions [4] - After Zelensky's compromise on the "joining the treaty" issue, crude oil prices hit a new low in the second half of the year. However, the US blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and the expected full - storage of Venezuelan oil facilities led to a slight rebound in crude oil prices [9] Crude Oil Supply - OPEC's October crude oil production was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.480 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of December 12 decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.843 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 2.49 million barrels month - on - month to 412.1 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, with 21 consecutive weeks of increase [14] Central Bank Interest Rate Cut - The US November core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to data collection interference. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for cuts, some believing it's a technical factor, and some worried about inflation and preferring to keep rates stable until next spring [18] Performance of Refined Oil in Europe and the US - The crack spreads of gasoline in the US and Europe decreased by $1.0 per barrel and $1.5 per barrel respectively; the crack spreads of diesel in the US and Europe decreased by $0.5 per barrel and $1.0 per barrel respectively [23] US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.521 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 7.36% week - on - week to 9.078 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.647 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13%. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 8.95% week - on - week to 3.786 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.684 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 2.18%. The significant decline in diesel demand led to a 2.41% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [27] US Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of December 17, EIA data showed that as of the week of December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels, slightly better than the expected decrease of 1.066 million barrels, and 4.47% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 4.808 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.062 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 1.712 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.178 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 742,000 barrels [34] Geopolitical Risks - The Ukrainian National Security Service attacked a Russian oil - transporting tanker in the Mediterranean. The Russian army advanced in various directions. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks made constructive progress. Israeli officials plan to report a possible new strike on Iran to Trump. The US intercepted a tanker near Venezuela [39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Currently, under the macro - environment, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating, and the uncertainty of the new Fed chairperson makes the market doubt the degree of monetary policy easing. The long - term agreement processing fee was set at 0 last Friday, which confirms the tight supply expectation of copper mines. There is an expectation that domestic smelters will cut production by 10% next year, so the tight supply is a long - term fundamental logic. In the short term, the consumer side is restricted by high - priced copper and has slowed down. The subsequent focus should be on the downstream's ability to accept high prices, and the copper price remains strong in the medium - to - long term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: In November, the year - on - year CPI and core CPI dropped to 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, significantly lower than market expectations. Due to data missing caused by the government shutdown in October, the market generally believes the data has low reference value. The non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [3]. - **Supply aspect**: On December 19, Chinese copper smelters and Antofagasta set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee at $0/ton and $0.00/lb, a historical "zeroing" compared to $21.25/ton and $0.02125/lb in 2025. In November, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. It is expected that December's production will increase by 65,700 tons (5.96% month - on - month) and 6.69% year - on - year [3]. - **Demand aspect**: According to SMM data, the expected December copper tube enterprise operating rate is 67.09%. The lower - than - expected operating rate is mainly due to the decline in air - conditioner production scheduling and high copper prices suppressing downstream raw material procurement. In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 66.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03 percentage points, 0.93 percentage points higher than expected, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.03 percentage points. After entering December, it is expected that downstream enterprises will gradually have holidays and stop work, and the operating rate will further decline. The copper foil market has maintained high - speed growth after December, but in 2026, with the new policy of halving the purchase tax for new - energy vehicles, the terminal demand will be under pressure and the growth rate may slow down [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend This week, Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. The weekly high was 94,360 yuan/ton, the low was 90,750 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 3.84%, and the interval decline was 0.96% [5]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market As of December 19, the average spot premium in East China was - 150 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 25 yuan/ton. At the year - end settlement period, holders of goods intended to sell at low prices, resulting in a discount market for copper prices [10]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure As of December 19, LME copper rose 0.36% during the week, closing at $11,837/ton [15]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply As of December 19, customs data showed that the copper concentrate port inventory was 680,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6%. In November 2025, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to November, the import volume was 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. It is expected that the import volume in December 2025 will be 2.6 million physical tons, and the annual import volume will be 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% with an expected increment of 2.094 million physical tons [21]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply In October 2025, the import volume of scrap copper (copper waste and scrap) was about 196,607 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%, with Japan being the largest importing country. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 23.84%, higher than the expected 27.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. Near the year - end, the shortage of bills affects the operating conditions of recycled copper enterprises, and it is expected to improve after New Year's Day. Currently, the market supply of scrap copper is tight, and under the influence of large copper price fluctuations and Document 770, the operating load of scrap - copper rod production is mainly low [26]. 3.7 Smelter Fees As of December 19, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the RC fee was - $0.0458/lb, with the TC/RC fees remaining weakly stable. The China Copper Smelters Purchasing Consortium (CSPT) announced that its members will jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. On December 19, Chinese copper smelters and Antofagasta set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee at $0/ton and $0.00/lb, a historical "zeroing" compared to 2025 [30]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply From January to October 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 122,000 tons, a reduction compared to 261,000 tons in the same period of the previous year. In November, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. It is expected that December's production will increase by 65,700 tons (5.96% month - on - month) and 6.69% year - on - year. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, the import volume was 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [34]. 3.9 Apparent Demand As of October 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1321,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.25% [38]. 3.10 Copper Products In November, the operating rate of copper tube enterprises was 63.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.45 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 17.86 percentage points. It is expected that the December operating rate will be 67.09%. The lower - than - expected operating rate is mainly due to the decline in air - conditioner production scheduling and high copper prices suppressing downstream raw material procurement. In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 66.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03 percentage points, 0.93 percentage points higher than expected, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.03 percentage points. After entering December, it is expected that downstream enterprises will gradually have holidays and stop work, and the operating rate will further decline. The copper foil market has maintained high - speed growth after December, but in 2026, with the new policy of halving the purchase tax for new - energy vehicles, the terminal demand will be under pressure and the growth rate may slow down [43]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power - generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; the installed capacity of wind power was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. From January to October, the national power - generation equipment had an average cumulative utilization of 2,619 hours, a decrease of 260 hours compared to the same period of the previous year [47]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data From January to November, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; among them, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of newly - built commercial housing was 7.513 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%; among them, the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2% [53]. 3.13 Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data From November 1 to 30, 2025, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.72 million, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. As of November this year, the cumulative wholesale sales volume of new - energy vehicles had reached 13.78 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Starting from January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax will be halved from exemption, which may lead to pre - purchase demand for new - energy vehicles [59]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges As of December 19, LME copper inventory decreased by 5,500 tons to 160,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.1%. COMEX copper inventory was 462,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.57% and a year - on - year increase of 394.48%. The continuous inventory build - up in the US has led to a shortage of copper inventory resources in other regions. Although the LME inventory is lower year - on - year, it is still at a relatively medium level in recent years. On December 18, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 109,100 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased again. The exported goods from smelters continued to arrive and be stored in the warehouse during the week, and the inventory rebounded. As of December 19, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 45,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40.46%; the cathode copper inventory was 95,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.18%, both showing an inventory build - up trend [64][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new capacity of plastics coming into operation this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 (Plastic and PP Operating Rates) - Plastic operating rate dropped 4 percentage points to around 86% due to new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical LDPE, currently at a neutral level [10] - PP operating rate dropped 2 percentage points to around 83% due to new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line, at a slightly below - neutral level [10] 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 (Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates) - As of the week of December 19, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and orders continue to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [16] - As of the week of December 19, PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn yarn, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [16] 3.3 Plastic基差 (Plastic Basis) - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price. The basis of the 05 contract rose to 330 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [20] 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 (Plastic and PP Inventories) - On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 660,000 tons, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction is slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [24]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate. The supply is affected by the开工 rate decline and potential production transfer, and the demand shows differences between the north and the south. There are also concerns about the supply of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil, which may impact domestic asphalt production [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, the asphalt开工 rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 27.6%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a multi - year low. In December, the domestic asphalt planned production is 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. Some Shandong refineries plan to switch to producing residue oil this week [3]. - **Demand Side**: As of the week ending December 19th, most downstream asphalt industries'开工 rates declined. Road asphalt开工 rate dropped 3 percentage points to 24% due to funding and weather. From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year - on - year. From January to November, the fixed - asset investment in road transport decreased 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased 1.1% year - on - year. Northern road construction is ending, with subsequent rigid demand slowing down, but winter - storage demand is emerging. Southern demand is average, and southern refineries have cut prices [3][29]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending December 19th, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.2% week - on - week, near the multi - year low [34]. - **Price and Basis**: The asphalt/原油 ratio rose to 6.82. The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to 1 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [11][14]. - **Shipping Volume**: As of the week ending December 19th, due to intermittent shutdowns of major refineries in East China and high prices, the national shipping volume decreased 3.52% week - on - week to 244,500 tons, at a neutral level [24].