光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 1 4 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 品种 | 今日价格 | 上日价格 | 变化 | 交割成本 | 今日基差 | 上日基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卡粉 | 853 | 855 | -2.0 | 808 | 94 | 92 | 2 | | BRBF | 776 | 780 | -4.0 | 800 | 85 | 85 | 0 | | 纽曼粉 | 757 | 762 | -5.0 | 792 | 78 | 79 | -1 | | PB 粉 | 765 | 769 | -4.0 | 811 | 97 | 97 | 0 | | 麦克粉 | 745 | 747 | -2.0 | 803 | 89 | 87 | 2 | | 罗伊山粉 | 735 | 739 | -4.0 | 804 | 90 | 90 | 0 | | 金布巴粉61% | ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.33%，报收 66.41 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 1.41%，报收 13330 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 12943 手至 56.98 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14332 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 247 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14384 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日上涨 197 元/吨。国际市场方面，美国 4 月 CPI 数据整体表现平稳，略低于 | | | | 预期，特朗普再催美联储降息，美元指数震荡走弱。另一方面，USDA5 月报公布， | | | | 报告环比调减 2025/26 年度全球棉花产量预期值，调增全球棉花消费量预期值， | | | | 2025/26 年度全球棉花供需宽松格局边际收窄。美棉方面，产量同比或基本持平， | | | | 出口量预计小幅调增，但期末库存预计也会增加，关注后续美棉播种及出口情况。 | | | | 国内 ...

Report Summary 1. Index Trends - On May 13th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to close at 3374.87 points with a trading volume of 506.609 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.13% to close at 10288.08 points with a trading volume of 784.916 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.27% with a trading volume of 263.463 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.21% with a trading volume of 194.252 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.2% with a trading volume of 69.358 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index rose 0.15% with a trading volume of 267.586 billion yuan [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - For the CSI 1000, sectors such as Medicine & Biology and Banking had a significant positive impact, while sectors like Computer, National Defense & Military Industry, and Electronics had a negative impact [3]. - For the CSI 500, Medicine & Biology and Banking pulled the index up, while Electronics, Computer, and National Defense & Military Industry pulled it down [3]. - For the SSE 300, Banking, Power Equipment, and Medicine & Biology boosted the index, while Electronics, Non - Banking Finance, and National Defense & Military Industry dragged it down [3]. - For the SSE 50, Banking, Power Equipment, and Medicine & Biology contributed positively, while Electronics, Non - Banking Finance, and Food & Beverage had a negative effect [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 28.2, IM01 of - 154.3, IM02 of - 346.67, and IM03 of - 489.3 [13]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 18.12, IC01 of - 128.41, IC02 of - 291.39, and IC03 of - 401.14 [13]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 7.03, IF01 of - 45.26, IF02 of - 113.55, and IF03 of - 151.61 [13]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.67, IH01 of - 20.26, IH02 of - 53.63, and IH03 of - 57.01 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides 15 - minute average data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts [24][25][27].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 光大期货能化商品日报 | | 周二，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2507 收涨 1.52%，报 3006 元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2507 收涨 1.78%，报 3541 元/吨。由 | | | | 于近期套利经济性不佳，预计 5 月欧洲市场运往新加坡的低硫套 | | | | 利货量将继续减少，但来自中东和南美的低硫燃料油调和组分数 | | | | 量增加正在增加新加坡地区库存。高硫方面，随着夏季公用事业 | | | 燃料油 | 发电需求回升，高硫燃料油市场需求支撑预期较强。预计短期在 | 震荡 | | | 油价暂时企稳的背景之下，FU 和 FU 绝对价格或将维持稳定，从 | | | | 相对强弱来看，尽管我们认为高硫基本面支撑更强，但近期低硫 | | | | 表现反而强于高硫，观察 LU-FU 价差走扩的持续性，可考虑后 | | | | 期高位介入价差做缩策略。 | | | 沥青 | 周二，上期所沥青主力合约 BU2506 收涨 0.69%，报 3485 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures and government bond futures are both "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, the joint statement between China and the US, along with domestic policy measures such as the establishment of new financial asset investment companies, support for Huijin to increase holdings of stock index funds, and the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, are expected to help companies repair their balance sheets, promote the stable development of the real economy, and steadily increase stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main theme for the stock market in 2025. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the stage of bottoming out and stabilizing [1] - For government bonds, the bond market has been supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and the weakening of the pricing fundamentals caused by tariffs. However, with the implementation of a series of incremental measures on May 7 and the joint statement between China and the US on May 12 to significantly reduce mutual tariffs, the two major positive factors have disappeared, and the bond market is expected to run in a bearish direction. The yield curve is expected to steepen again [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The joint statement between China and the US provides a good start for further trade negotiations. Domestic policies are the main driving force for the stock market in 2025. The revenue and profit of A-share listed companies are showing signs of improvement, and the market is expected to oscillate [1] - **Government Bond Futures**: The bond market is expected to be bearish due to the implementation of monetary policy measures and the reduction of tariffs. The yield curve is expected to steepen [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 13, 2025, compared with May 12, IH rose 0.06%, IF fell 0.05%, IC fell 0.59%, and IM fell 0.67%. Among the stock indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.20%, the CSI 300 rose 0.15%, the CSI 500 fell 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.27% [3] - **Government Bond Futures**: On May 13, 2025, the 30-year main contract rose 0.13%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.03% [1] 3. Market News - On May 13, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson responded to questions about Sino-US economic and trade talks and the issue of special tariffs on fentanyl, stating that the responsibility for the fentanyl issue lies with the US, and the US's imposition of tariffs has damaged Sino-US cooperation and Chinese interests [5] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trend charts of various stock index futures [6][7][8] - **Government Bond Futures**: The report shows the trend charts of government bond futures main contracts, the yield charts of government bond cash bonds, the basis charts, the inter - period spread charts, the inter - variety spread charts, and the capital interest rate charts [13][14][16] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, the forward exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, and the exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [20][21][22]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 1 3 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 761.0 | 761.0 | 0.0 | I05-I09 | 42.5 | 65.0 | -22.5 | | I09 | 718.5 | 696.0 | 22.5 | I09-I01 | 31.5 | 26.0 | 5.5 | | I01 | 687.0 | 670.0 | 17.0 | I01-I05 | -74.0 | -91.0 | 17.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 ...

1. Index Movements - On May 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.82% to close at 3369.24 points, with a trading volume of 522.081 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.72% to close at 10301.16 points, with a trading volume of 786.329 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.4%, with a trading volume of 264.308 billion yuan, opening at 6122.67, closing at 6167.46, with a daily high of 6167.46 and a low of 6110.02 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.26%, with a trading volume of 199.427 billion yuan, opening at 5751.44, closing at 5793.67, with a daily high of 5794.52 and a low of 5737.46 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.16%, with a trading volume of 296.123 billion yuan, opening at 3866.53, closing at 3890.61, with a daily high of 3890.73 and a low of 3859.03 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.69%, with a trading volume of 78.88 billion yuan, opening at 2688.75, closing at 2702.62, with a daily high of 2710.61 and a low of 2681.96 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 85.38 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 71.95 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as national defense and military industry, electronics, and computer significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 44.45 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as non - bank finance, power equipment, and electronics significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 18.61 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as non - bank finance, food and beverage, and banks significantly pulling the index up, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector pulled the index down [3]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs Converted from Basis - IM00 average daily basis was - 21.01, IM01 was - 134.41, IM02 was - 324.53, and IM03 was - 465.93 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 12.18, IC01 was - 112.94, IC02 was - 271.41, and IC03 was - 377.95 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 4.8, IF01 was - 37.52, IF02 was - 102.79, and IF03 was - 139.79 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.39, IH01 was - 16.22, IH02 was - 49.71, and IH03 was - 53.42 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Their Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs were presented, including values at different time points such as 09:45, 10:00, etc. [22]. - Similar data for IC, IF, and IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs were also provided with values at multiple time points [23][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.53% to 64,040 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate dropped 650 yuan/ton to 64,600 yuan/ton, industrial-grade lithium carbonate dropped 650 yuan/ton to 62,950 yuan/ton, battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 220 yuan/ton to 66,090 yuan/ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) fell 220 yuan/ton to 71,235 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 157 tons to 36,194 tons [3]. - In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.251 million and 1.226 million respectively, with year-on-year increases of 43.8% and 44.2%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.3% of the total sales of new vehicles. Among them, domestic sales were 1.025 million, a month-on-month decrease of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, accounting for 49.5% of domestic vehicle sales [3]. - On the supply side, weekly production cuts continue, and the total supply in May is expected to be lower than expected. On the demand side, the consumption of lithium carbonate by ternary and lithium iron phosphate in May is expected to increase slightly month-on-month. The inventory turnover days of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials have been continuously decreasing, and the ternary materials show a slight upward trend. The cell end remains prosperous. In terms of inventory, there was a slight destocking during the week, but the overall inventory level remains high, especially the downstream inventory [3]. - Overall, against the backdrop of a lack of obvious incremental demand, the decline in lithium ore prices and the relatively low reduction in supply still lead to a strong bearish sentiment in the market. Be vigilant against capital disturbances under short-term low valuations [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory changes of lithium carbonate and related products [3] - New energy vehicle production, sales, and market share data in April [3] - Supply, demand, and inventory situation analysis in May [3] - Overall market sentiment and risk warning [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Price changes of various products in the lithium battery industry chain from May 9 - 12, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, and other materials [5] - Price differentials between different grades of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, and their changes [5] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts showing the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores in 2024 - 2025 [6][8] 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts presenting the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate in 2024 - 2025 [9][11][13] 3.3 Price Differentials - Charts depicting the price differentials between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant differentials in 2024 - 2025 [16][17][19] 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium in 2024 - 2025 [21][24][27] 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts presenting the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2024 - 2025 [29][31] 3.6 Inventory - Charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links in 2024 - 2025 [34][36] 3.7 Production Costs - Chart depicting the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in 2024 - 2025 [38][39] 4. Research Team Introduction - Introduction of the non - ferrous research team members, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [42][43] 5. Contact Information - Company address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - On May 12, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main 2506 contract closing at 38,450 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.49%, and the position increasing by 248 lots to 67,504 lots. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main 2506 contract closing at 8,320 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.24%, and the position decreasing by 1,216 lots to 16,900 lots [2]. - There was a small amount of seasonal production increase in the Southwest, and the production reduction progress in the Northwest was slow. The industry inventory was still accumulating. At the current low position of the futures price, it was difficult for enterprises to conduct hedging, and industrial silicon continued to be in a state where it was easier to fall than to rise [2]. - The industry would hold another meeting on self - restricted production and price support for polysilicon, and the release rhythm of planned new production capacity might be postponed. As the delivery period approached, the ratio of virtual to real warehouse receipts for polysilicon was too high, giving room for long - position players to compete. It was necessary to track the meeting results and the movement of warehouse receipts and be vigilant against abnormal risks before the delivery month [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Polysilicon and industrial silicon futures prices both showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend on May 12. The production situation in different regions led to inventory accumulation, and there were potential changes in the production capacity release rhythm due to industry meetings [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton from May 9 to May 12. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions decreased, with the largest decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest delivery price decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 80 yuan/ton [4]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 67,338, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory decreased by 10,820 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 3,800 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 3,800 tons [4]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts increased by 620 yuan/ton from May 9 to May 12. The spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest delivery price remained unchanged, and the spot premium decreased by 620 yuan/ton [4]. - The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20, the GFE inventory increased by 300,000 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.3 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [4]. Organic Silicon - The DMC price in the East China market and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. Downstream Products - The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. 3.3.2 Downstream Product Prices - The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][23][25]. 3.3.4 Cost and Profit - The charts show the average cost and profit levels in the main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [28][30][34].

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米期价震荡下行，日线以小阴线收盘。现货主体卖粮意愿增加，市场情 绪有所改变。目前，国内玉米均价 2359 元/吨，价格上涨 7 元/吨。虽然今日期 | | | | 货市场表现一般，但东北玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，贸易商根据库存情况 | | | | 操作思路不一，深加工玉米收购价格处于高位，对行情有一定的支撑。周末企业 | | | 玉米 | 经过下跌后，今日华北地区玉米价格整体维持稳定，目前贸易商的心态依然是下 | 震荡 | | | 跌不出货，因此价格对市场供应的调整比较有效。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨， | | | | 港口贸易商报价上调 10-20 元/吨。产区贸易商挺价心态浓厚，中储粮玉米拍卖 | | | | 多溢价成交，但今日期货表现偏弱，市场整体交易一般。技术上，玉米期价高位 | | | | 震荡，现货市场情绪有所分化，警惕期价展开调整。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆收高，创下三个月新高，因贸易紧张局势缓解以及美国农业部 报告利多帮助大豆价格回 ...