软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.27%，报收 66.3 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.7%，报收 12830 元 | | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 18452 手 49.34 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14129 元 | | | | /吨，较前一日下降 90 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14252 元/吨，较前一 | | | | 日下降 45 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面影响仍在继续，特朗普宣布对中国对华 | | | | 关税税率加征至 245%，鲍威尔昨夜讲话，偏鹰，降息预期延后。美元指数再度下 | 弱势震 | | | 行跌破 100 整数关口。基本面扰动有限，美棉持续播种中，进度略慢于往年同期， | | | | 市场关注重心仍在于宏观层面，预计短期仍有反复。国内市场方面，市场情绪仍有 | 荡 | | | 波动，多数商品下跌，郑棉期价重心随之下移。基本面来看，下游纺织企业开机负 | | | | 荷略有下降，终端需求 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜表现偏强；国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，海外方面，昨晚美联储主 席鲍威尔讲话仍无视特朗普降息呼声，一方面，他认为加征关税等政策让经济面临很高 | | | 的不确定性，联储要等到形势更明朗再考虑降息、要避免关税持久推升通胀。关税推高 | | | 通胀，让经济增长放缓，被视为提出了滞胀的担忧。另一方面，他警告投资者，面对不 | | 铜 | 确定性，美股等金融市场会继续波动，但否认联储会大规模"救市"。鲍威尔讲话加剧 | | | 了美元金融资产的撕裂。库存方面来看，LME 库存增加 3775 吨至 216250 吨。需求方 | | | 面，铜价剧烈波动，下游开工和订单保持平稳。美政府政策的不确定性正日益加重市场 | | | 的担忧，一是美滞胀忧虑，二是全球经济和贸易的波动，所以铜价虽出现修复性反弹， | | | 但担忧情绪下，预计本轮反弹高度受限。短期铜需求维持韧性下仍以偏强看待，关注 | | | 78000~80000 元/吨阻力区间，情绪上关注美股及 LME ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格弱势运行，05 合约收盘价 1789 元/吨，跌幅 1.49%；09 合约收盘价 1767 元/吨，跌幅 | 震荡 | | | 0.73%。现货市场继续弱势下调，主流地区价格下行幅度 10~20 元/吨不等，目前山东、河南地区市场价 | | | | 格均回落至 1890 元/吨，盘面价格仍明显贴水现货。基本面来看，尿素供应水平略有回落，昨日日产 | | | | 量降至 19.10 万吨，但仍处于同比高位。需求端跟进缓慢，但在价格下跌后部分地区成交微 | | | | 幅好转。昨日主流地区产销率回升至 10%-80%区间，对市场支撑有限。本周尿素企业库存增 | | | | 幅 8.70%，不利于企业挺价及中下游采购情绪释放。整体来看，短期尿素现货成交节奏放缓仍 | | | | 压制市场情绪，期货盘面也将延续偏弱震荡状态。但目前仍处于需求旺季， ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3093 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 32 元/吨，跌幅为 1.02%，持仓增加 7.4 万手。现货价格下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | | | | 下跌 20 元/吨至 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3110 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.41 万 | | | | 吨。据国家统计局数据，1-3 月制造业投资同比增长 9.1%，增速比 1-2 月加快 0.1 个百分点；基建投资同 | | | | 比增长 5.8%，加快 0.2 个百分点；房地产投资同比下降 9.9%，降幅扩大 0.1 个百分点。其中 3 月份房地产 | | | | 投资、商品房销售、房屋新开工、施工、竣工同比分别下降 10.32%、下降 1.55%、下降 18.74%、下降 33.34% | | | | 和下降 11.68%。1-3 月全国粗钢 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米主力合约围绕 | 2300 | 元关口震荡，7 | 月合约持仓增加，期价基本收平。 | 在连续两日的期货调整过程中，玉米期价领跌，现货强于期货，基差回归。近期 | | | | | | | | 玉米 | 5 | 月合约持仓下降，7 | 月合约增仓，加权合约持仓增加，空头增仓占优。现 | 货市场方面，东北玉米价格暂无明显调整，虽成交情况一般，但贸易商心态较为 | | | | | | | | 平稳，低价出库意向一般。北港水分 | 15%贸易粮价格表现一般，但 | 14.5%呕吐毒 | 素不超的玉米价格表现良好，呈现出优质优价的状态。华北地区玉米价格整体维 | | | | | | | | | 持稳定，主流价格不变。山东深加工企业早间到货车辆增加，基本能够满足企业 | 玉米 | 震荡 | 生产需求，个别企业价格窄幅调整。河北、河南深加工企业价格基本 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2505 合约跌 0.23%至 70420 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价维持 71550 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂维持 69650 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）维持 68950 元/吨，电池级氢氧 化锂（微粉）维持 74075 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 21 吨至 29262 吨。 2. 供应端，碳酸锂周度产量环比小幅增加，4 月预计产量达到近 8 万吨，日均产量环比增加 4%。需求 端，三元材料产量环比增幅明显，磷酸铁锂产量环比维持，日均消耗碳酸锂环比增加约 5%；正极材 料库存周转天数三元小幅增加，磷酸铁锂微降。库存方面，周度库存环比增加 1633 吨至 13.1 万吨， 其中其他环比下降，上下游均有增加。 3. 价格或将在 7 万元/吨附近震荡运行，短期关注上游停减产情况，仓单库存情况以及锂矿价格走势； 中期均衡价格重心下移，市场采购活跃度一般，下游产成品库存压力相对较大。 碳酸锂日报 二、日度数据监测 | ...

二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨-78.68 点，电力设备,医药生物,电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 中证 500 较前收盘价上涨-45.67 点，电子,电力设备,医药生物等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-04-17 一、指数走势 04 月 16 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.26%，收于 3276.0 点，成交额 4892.01 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.85%，收于 9774.73 点，成交额 6227.03 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-1.33%，成交额 2294.3 亿元，其中开盘价 5897.2，收盘价 5835.35，当日最高价 5903.12，最低价 5758.67； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.82%，成交额 1637.51 亿元，其中开盘价 5589.78，收盘价 5556.86，当日最高价 5592.67，最低价 5492.65； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.31%，成交额 2617.11 亿元，其中开盘价 3757.88，收盘价 3772.82，当日最高价 3775.17，最低价 3721.6； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.91%，成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical commodities are expected to be volatile. For crude oil, although there are factors such as new US sanctions on Iran and OPEC's production - cut plans, the global oil demand in 2025 will be at the slowest level in five years, and the price may fluctuate. Other commodities like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC also face different supply - demand situations and external influences, leading to price volatility [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil prices moved significantly higher. WTI May contract rose $1.14 to $62.47 per barrel (1.86% increase), Brent June contract rose $1.18 to $65.85 per barrel (1.82% increase), and SC2505 closed at 482.1 yuan per barrel, rising 8.3 yuan (1.75% increase). New US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and OPEC's production - cut plans boosted oil prices. However, the US crude inventory increased last week, and the global oil demand in 2025 will be at the slowest level in five years. The price is expected to be volatile [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.8% to 2,891 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2506 fell 2.12% to 3,329 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market has some support, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market continues to face pressure. Short - term prices will follow oil prices with high volatility [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.27% to 3,278 yuan per ton. The May asphalt production plan of local refineries is expected to increase. The cost - end support weakens, and the price is expected to be volatile [2] - **Polyester**: TA505 closed at 4,222 yuan per ton, down 2.36%; EG2505 closed at 4,112 yuan per ton, down 1.58%. The polyester chain price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while the ethylene glycol price is relatively resistant to decline [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2505 fell 75 yuan to 14,635 yuan per ton. The social inventory of natural rubber continues to increase, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol supply is at a high level, and the short - term arrival volume will remain low. The near - term inventory will continue to decline, but the far - month supply and demand may be loose. The price is expected to be volatile [5] - **Polyolefin**: The refinery maintenance is increasing, but due to tariff policies, the downstream demand is weakening, and the short - term inventory pressure is high. The price is expected to be volatile [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The refinery production is decreasing, and the demand is also weakening. The price is expected to be volatile, and short - term risk control is recommended [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical commodities on April 17, 2025, including the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their price changes and historical quantiles [8] 3.3 Market News - The US issued new sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and OPEC received new production - cut plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan and other countries, which boosted oil prices. The US EIA reported that the US crude inventory increased last week, and the IEA said that the global oil demand in 2025 will be at the slowest level in five years [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical commodities from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][13][14] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various commodities such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [27][31][32] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of various commodities such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., which helps to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [42][47][50] 4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different commodities, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [60][62][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided, which can help understand the profitability of different production processes [67][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and director of the energy and chemical department. She has rich experience in futures derivatives research and has won many awards [73] - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt and shipping. She has in - depth research on the energy industry and has won multiple awards [74] - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won awards such as the "New - star Analyst" of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [75] - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP and PVC, with rich experience in energy and chemical futures and cash trading [76]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 1.19%，报收 66.13 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.77%，报收 12880 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 34948 手 47.5 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14219 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日增加 2 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14297 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日增加 4 元/吨。国际市场方面，主要影响仍在于宏观层面，昨日美元指数大幅 | | | | 上行，重新突破 100 整数关口，美棉期价重心也随之上移。持续关注相关事件对情 | | | | 绪端冲击。基本面扰动有限，美棉持续播种中，截止 4 月 13 日播种进度为 5%，进 | | | | 度略慢于往年同期。国内市场方面，郑棉维持区间震荡走势，当市场情绪逐渐发酵 | | | | 之后，市场关注重心将重回基本面，目前看，上行驱动支撑不足，下游纺织企业开 | | | | 机负荷略有下降，终端需求有 ...

黑色商品日报 硅铁 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5774 元/吨，环比下降 1.67%，主力合约持仓环比增加 17899 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5550-5700 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。昨日黑色板块走势稍有分化，合金走势 相对偏弱，硅铁期价重心下移。消息面来看，主流钢招终于启动，河北某大型钢厂 4 月 75B 硅铁招标数量 1700 吨，较上轮减少 183 吨，持续关注相关进展。供需层面来看，主产区供应在逐渐减量，需求端未见明 显改善，60 家样本企业库存在逐渐累积，基本面支撑有限。预计短期硅铁期价仍低位震荡为主，近期关注 主流钢招及市场情绪变化。 低位震荡 二、日度数据监测 | 品 种 | 合约价差 | 最 新 | 环 比 | 基 差 | 最 新 | 环 比 | 现 货 | 最 新 | 环 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 10-1月 | -32.0 | -1.0 | 10合约 | 45.0 | 1.0 | 上海 | 3170.0 | 0.0 | | 螺 纹 | | | | | ...