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纸浆数据日报-20251112
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on the Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, SP2601 was 5484 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 3.71%; SP2511 was 4888 with a daily increase of 0.37% and a weekly decrease of 0.04%; SP2605 was 5468 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 2.86% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5550 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.91%; Russian Needle was 5400 with a daily and weekly increase of 5.88%; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4380 with a daily and weekly increase of 3.06% [5] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In November 2025, the outer - market quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% from the previous period; Japanese Xihui was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5] - **Import Costs**: In November 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged from the previous period [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5] - **Demand**: In November 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.80 tons; coated paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.36 tons; white cardboard was 35.70 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 11, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 512 with a quantile level of 0.953; the Silver Star basis was 662 with a quantile level of 0.889 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.593; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 36 with a quantile level of 0.681 [5] Market Situation Analysis - **Supply - Side**: In October, Chile's Arauco Company's softwood pulp Silver Star was quoted at 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star was quoted at 540 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Demand - Side**: White cardboard has seen a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters recently, but whether the price increases can be implemented remains to be observed. Overall demand is still weak [10] - **Inventory - Side**: As of November 6, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%, showing a narrow - range de - stocking trend [10]
聚酯数据日报-20251112
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:11
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: Gasoline supply contraction leads to an expansion of gasoline profits, indirectly supporting PX prices. Russian crude oil supply has decreased due to sanctions, and the profit expansion of diesel and other products prompts refineries to prioritize the production of gasoline and diesel. PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Tight PX supply has widened the spread between PX and naphtha, while PTA processing fees have been compressed to below 200. Although the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" have ended, export demand may improve under the easing of the China - US trade war. Recently, downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. New device commissions have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price, and the spot tightness caused by low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. The increase in coal prices has not provided stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The China - US trade negotiation has been reached, and the reduction of tariffs may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Data - INE crude oil price decreased from 461.8 yuan/barrel on November 10, 2025, to 458.8 yuan/barrel on November 11, 2025, a decrease of 3.00 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1348.1 yuan/ton to 1313.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.20 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4017 to 1.3941, a decrease of 0.0076 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 828 to 821, a decrease of 7; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 246 to 239, a decrease of 8 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4704 yuan/ton to 4648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4605 yuan/ton to 4600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 175.8 yuan/ton to 192.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.8 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 274.8 yuan/ton to 255.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 3953 yuan/ton to 3875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (149.62) yuan/ton to (149.81) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG内盘 decreased from 4003 yuan/ton to 3981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.0 yuan/ton [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX开工率 remained at 88.03%, PTA开工率 remained at 76.31%, MEG开工率 remained at 63.74%, and polyester负荷 remained at 89.70% [2]. c. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150D/48F increased from 6555 to 6600, an increase of 45.0; POY现金流 increased from 27 to 83, an increase of 56.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F increased from 6770 to 6805, an increase of 35.0; FDY现金流 increased from (258) to (212), an increase of 46.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F increased from 7840 to 7860, an increase of 20.0; DTY现金流 increased from 112 to 143, an increase of 31.0 [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6415 to 6365, a decrease of 50; 涤短现金流 decreased from 237 to 198, a decrease of 39.0 [2]. - 半光切片 remained at 5595; 切片现金流 increased from (33) to (22), an increase of 11.0 [2]. d. Product Sales - 长丝产销 increased from 50% to 54%, an increase of 4% [2]. - 短纤产销 decreased from 66% to 41%, a decrease of 25% [2]. - 切片产销 decreased from 82% to 51%, a decrease of 31% [2]. e. Device Maintenance An East - China PTA device with a capacity of 2.2 million tons has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]
生猪数据日报-20251112
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall spot market has stabilized, mainly influenced by sales and secondary fattening. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight of national pigs in October was 128.08 kg, a decrease of 0.31 kg from September, and the overall reduction is still insufficient. Although the breeding profit and piglet profit are already in the red, the duration of the losses needs continuous monitoring. Demand remains largely unchanged before December, and the frozen product inventory is gradually rising back to normal levels. Overall, there is still pressure on pig sales from November to December, but the spot price fluctuations have gradually flattened recently due to secondary fattening. Futures prices fluctuate in tandem with the spot market, and attention should be paid to further release of production capacity in the later period [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Spot Price and Basis - On November 11, 2025, the national average pig price was 11.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg. The prices in various regions showed different degrees of decline, with the highest price in Guangdong at 12.68 yuan/kg and the lowest price in Guizhou at 11.24 yuan/kg. The basis between the spot price and LH2601 also showed different degrees of change [3] 3.2 Futures Price - On November 11, 2025, LH2601 closed at 11,755 yuan, a decrease of 200 yuan; LH2603 closed at 11,465 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; LH2605 closed at 12,065 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between LH01 - 03 was 290 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan; the spread between LH03 - 05 was -600 yuan, a decrease of 85 yuan [3] 3.3 Market Analysis - The overall spot market is stable, mainly affected by sales and secondary fattening. The average slaughter weight has decreased, but the reduction is still insufficient. Breeding and piglet profits are in the red, and the duration of losses needs to be monitored. Demand is stable before December, and frozen product inventory is rising. There is still pressure on pig sales from November to December, but spot price fluctuations have flattened. Futures prices fluctuate with the spot market, and attention should be paid to further release of production capacity [3]
白糖数据日报-20251112
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - As the new crops in the Northern Hemisphere and domestic cane sugar are about to be launched, Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The large volume of raw sugar imports and the upcoming concentrated sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi may bring selling pressure, but the current futures price is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, so it is expected to decline resistantly before the new domestic sugar is launched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Domestic Spot and Futures Data**: On November 11, 2025, the price in Nanning warehouse, Guangxi was 5760 with a rise of 30; in Rizhao, Shandong, it was 5820 with no change. SR01 was 5480, SR05 was 5411 with a rise of 6, and SR01 - 05 was 69 with a decline of 1. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1382 with a rise of 0.0004 [4]. - **International Data**: The ice raw sugar主力 was 14.26 with no change, the London white sugar主力 was 573 with a rise of 3, and the Brent crude oil主力 was 63.94 with no change. The exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818 with a rise of 0.0212, and the rupee against the RMB was 0.084 with a decline of 0.0004 [4]. Supply Analysis - **Import Supply**: The current large volume of raw sugar imports and the gradually released pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports, with an import cost of 5300 - 5400, are suppressing the futures market [4]. - **Domestic Supply**: Yunnan sugar mills started the first pressing two days ago, and Guangxi sugar mills are expected to start concentrated crushing in mid - to - late November, which may create new selling pressure [4].
航运衍生品数据日报-20251111
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 06:50
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The market situation of shipping derivatives shows a weak oscillation. The short - term macro - positive factors, capacity control, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectation is falsified, the main contract is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for the December contract [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shipping Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1495, 1058, 2212, 1329, 2848, 1323 respectively. Their previous values were 1551, 1021, 2647, 1208, 3438, 1344, with corresponding changes of - 3.59%, 3.60%, - 16.43%, 10.02%, - 17.16%, - 1.56%. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1504 and 2029, with previous values of 1208 and 1983, and changes of 24.50% and 2.32% [4] 2. Shipping Contracts - For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, the current values are 1395.2, 1495.2, 1134.1, 1778.2, 1604.9, 1166.1 respectively. Their previous values were 1376.1, 1499.2, 1133.4, 1812.0, 1592.0, 1164.6, with corresponding changes of 1.39%, - 0.27%, 0.06%, - 1.87%, 0.81%, 0.13% [4] 3. Contract Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604 are 1446, 1286, 1485, 26680, 24696, 14451 respectively. Their previous positions were 1452, 1311, 1464, 25887, 22939, 14330, with changes of - 6, - 25, 21, 793, 1757, 121 [4] 4. Month - to - Month Spreads - The current values of month - to - month spreads 12 - 02, 12 - 04, 02 - 04 are 173.3, 612.1, 438.8 respectively. Their previous values were 220.0, 647.4, 427.4, with changes of - 46.7, - 35.3, 11.4 [4] 5. Industry News and Market Analysis - CMA states that no route can replace the Suez Canal, will continue using it, and expects to increase voyages through it. In 2026, the market will favor shippers, with freight rates falling. Maersk emphasizes the advantages of twins, achieving annual cost savings of 7 - 9.5 billion US dollars. In November, capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%. The overall TPBB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. Market demand in November remains healthy [5] 6. Market Factors and Outlook - The market shows a weak oscillation mainly because MSK's late - November quotes are much lower than other airlines. Key influencing factors include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airline strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables. Short - term macro - positive factors, capacity control, and price - support expectations will support the market. It is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract and closely monitor suspension and loading rates [7]
蛋白数据日报-20251111
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 06:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock-to-consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may have room for downward adjustment, while the export forecast has room for upward adjustment. The supply-demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply-demand report next week [8][11]. - As of November 1st, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% last week, 53.3% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 54.7%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry conditions expected in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul in the next few weeks and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [10]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start reducing inventory, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The purchasing progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [11]. - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, with no obvious reduction in production capacity, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, but recent downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [11]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and inventory is expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level. Due to a significant decline in crushing last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased significantly as of last week. In the short term, the domestic futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly following the US market. Attention should be paid to the USDA report data this week and weather changes in South America [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on November 10th was -3, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous value. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions showed different changes, such as -5 in Tianjin, 5 in Rizhao, -5 in Zhangjiagang, 15 in Dongguan, -5 in Zhanjiang, and 15 in Fangcheng [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong on November 10th was 105, an increase of 14 compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 99, a decrease of 24 compared to the previous value. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 536, an increase of 17 compared to the previous value [7]. 3.3 Premium and Profit Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1175, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 145 cents per bushel, with no change. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit was - 86 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and inventory is expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level [11]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The USDA's 25/26 US soybean supply - demand balance is expected to be tight. The Brazilian soybean planting rate is lower than the same period last year and the five - year average, and attention should be paid to weather conditions. The purchasing progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [8][10][11]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may affect long - term supply. Recent downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [11].
股指期权数据日报-20251111
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 05:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On November 10, the A-share market showed a divergence between large and small indices, with rapid rotation of market hotspots. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed steadily, while the ChiNext Index fell nearly 1%. The large - consumption sector led the gain, while the robot and electric power grid sectors adjusted. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.53% at 4018.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.92%, the North - Star 50 Index fell 0.67%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.57%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.38%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.34%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.24%. The total A - share trading volume for the day was 2.19 trillion yuan, compared with 2.02 trillion yuan the previous day. [5] - **Index Data Details**: The closing price of the SSE 50 was 3053.857, with a turnover of 1399.07 billion yuan, a daily increase of 0.51%, a trading volume of 49.08 billion shares, and a turnover of 0.35 billion. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4695.0507, with a turnover of 236.03 billion yuan, a daily increase of 0.28%, a trading volume of 7563.2535 billion shares, and a turnover of 4337.98 billion. The closing price of the CSI 1000 was 274.36. [3] CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: For the SSE 50, the call option volume was 3.13 million contracts, the put option volume was 3.40 million contracts, the total option volume was 2.14 million contracts, the volume PCR was 0.59, the call option open interest was 7.33 million contracts, the put option open interest was 0.74 million contracts, the total open interest was 1.26 million contracts, and the open - interest PCR was 4.20. For the CSI 300, the call option volume was 4.43 million contracts, the put option volume was 0.68 million contracts, the total option volume was 20.58 million contracts, the volume PCR was 0.87, the call option open interest was 10.91 million contracts, the put option open interest was 6.48 million contracts, and the open - interest PCR was 9.58. For the CSI 1000, the call option volume was 23.39 million contracts, the put option volume was 12.75 million contracts, the total option volume was 0.83 million contracts, the volume PCR was 31.57, the call option open interest was 10.64 million contracts, the put option open interest was 15.06 million contracts, and the open - interest PCR was 16.52. [3] Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Smile Curve**: Historical volatility and volatility smile curves are presented for the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including historical volatility cones, different percentile values (such as 10%, 30%, 60%, 90%), and next - month at - the - money implied volatility. [3][4]
聚酯数据日报-20251111
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 05:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PTA: Gasoline supply contraction expands gasoline profit, indirectly supporting PX price. Due to sanctions on Russia, crude oil supply decreases, and refineries prioritize increasing production of gasoline and diesel. PTA supply slightly contracts, polyester operation is stable, and domestic polyester exports remain optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period is over, export demand may improve under the easing of the China-US trade war. The current peak season is expected to last until November. Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of China-US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The inventory at East China ethylene glycol ports has significantly increased by 120,000 tons compared to last week. The ethylene price fails to support the rise of ethylene glycol price. New plant startups keep the ethylene glycol price under pressure. The tightness of spot goods caused by low inventory is mainly reflected through the basis. The increase in coal price does not provide strong cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal-based ethylene glycol has been restored. The China-US trade negotiation may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price rose from 460.6 yuan/barrel on November 7, 2025, to 461.8 yuan/barrel on November 10, 2025, an increase of 1.2 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA-SC increased from 1316.8 to 1348.1, an increase of 31.28; PTA/SC increased from 1.3934 to 1.4017, an increase of 0.0083 [2] - CFR China PX price rose from 823 to 828, an increase of 5; PX-naphtha spread decreased from 247 to 246, a decrease of 1 [2] - PTA主力期价 rose from 4664 yuan/ton to 4704 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 4575 yuan/ton to 4605 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] - PTA现货加工费 decreased from 188.8 yuan/ton to 175.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 increased from 262.8 yuan/ton to 274.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton [2] - PTA主力基差 remained unchanged at (78); PTA仓单数量 increased from 89012 to 91046, an increase of 2034 [2] - MEG主力期价 rose from 3942 yuan/ton to 3953 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton; MEG-石脑油 decreased from (149.22) to (149.41), a decrease of 0.2 [2] - MEG内盘 decreased from 4013 to 4003, a decrease of 10; MEG主力基差 decreased from 70 to 68, a decrease of 2 [2] Industry Chain Operation - PX开工率 remained unchanged at 88.03%; PTA开工率 decreased from 77.42% to 76.31%, a decrease of 1.11%; MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 63.74%; polyester load remained unchanged at 89.70% [2] Product Sales - POY150D/48F decreased from 6560 to 6555, a decrease of 5; POY现金流 decreased from 54 to 27, a decrease of 27 [2] - FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 6770; FDY现金流 decreased from (236) to (258), a decrease of 22 [2] - DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7840; DTY现金流 decreased from 134 to 112, a decrease of 22 [2] - 长丝产销 increased from 48% to 50%, an increase of 2% [2] - 1.4D直纺涤短 remained unchanged at 6415; 涤短现金流 decreased from 259 to 237, a decrease of 22 [2] - 短纤产销 increased from 46% to 66%, an increase of 20% [2] - 半光切片 rose from 5575 to 5595, an increase of 20; 切片现金流 decreased from (31) to (33), a decrease of 2 [2] - 切片产销 increased from 53% to 82%, an increase of 29% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.2 million-ton PTA plant in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]
黑色金属数据日报-20251111
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 05:19
Report Summary Key Points - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The steel industry is expected to see a gradual decline in production in the future, with potential for price increases in the latter half with the help of macro funds or policies. The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are likely to experience price fluctuations due to high supply and weak demand. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to remain volatile, with supply-side support weakening and demand-side pressures increasing. The iron ore market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [5][6][7]. Summary by Category Steel - Futures prices have temporarily stabilized, and spot trading volumes have increased. The short-term macro outlook is uncertain, and the focus is on industry contradictions. Steel production is expected to decline gradually, with potential for price increases in the latter half [5]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on unilateral trading. Consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or using options strategies to assist in spot sales [8]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Prices are fluctuating due to a decline in market sentiment and external macro factors. The fundamentals are weak, with high supply, large inventory, and weak downstream demand. Prices are likely to be under pressure [5]. - Investment strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading and wait for more information on supply and demand [11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Steel mills have not responded to the fourth round of coke price increases, and the spot market sentiment has weakened. The supply of coking coal is still disrupted, but the upward price drive has weakened. The demand side is facing negative feedback as steel demand enters the off-season [6]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on short-term unilateral trading and consider low-buying in the long term. Industrial customers can consider selling hedges [6][11]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is currently strong, but mainly due to shipping schedules. Iron ore port inventories are expected to continue to rise as steel production declines. The market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [7]. - Investment strategy: Partially take profits on short positions [7][11].
贵金属数据日报-20251111
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 05:13
the first 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 AG2512 | | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 日期 内外盘金 银15点价 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 2025/11/10 格跟踪 | 4075. 52 | 49. 53 | 4084. 70 | 49.58 | 935.98 | 11719.00 | 933.23 | 11707.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/1 ...