Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the weakening US job market, falling consumer confidence index, and relatively controllable inflation pressure, the market trades on the Fed's rate - cut expectations and anticipates an accelerated pace of rate cuts. The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year. Geopolitical tensions and concerns about US economic stagflation support precious metal prices at high levels, with silver showing more resilience. Before the September rate cut, precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, but volatility may increase. Attention should be paid to the Fed's September meeting and Sino - US economic and trade talks this week [5] - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the de - dollarization trend, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Gold and Silver - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, London gold spot price was at $3636.27/ounce (-0.4%), London silver spot price was at $42.12/ounce (0.2%), COMEX gold was at $3674.10/ounce (-0.4%), COMEX silver was at $42.61/ounce (0.0%), AU2510 was at 831.60 yuan/gram (-0.3%), AG2510 was at 10017.00 yuan/kilogram (-0.2%), AU (T + D) was at 828.56 yuan/gram (-0.3%), and AG (T + D) was at 9997.00 yuan/kilogram (-0.1%) [3] 2. Spread/Ratio of Gold and Silver - From September 12 to September 15, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from -3.54 yuan/gram to -3.04 yuan/gram (-14.1%), the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from -25 yuan/kilogram to -20 yuan/kilogram (-20.0%), the spread of gold's internal - external market (TD - London) changed from -2.80 yuan/gram to -2.15 yuan/gram (-23.3%), the spread of silver's internal - external market (TD - London) changed from -741 yuan/kilogram to -776 yuan/kilogram (4.8%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio changed from 83.13 to 83.02 (-0.1%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio changed from 86.58 to 86.23 (-0.4%), AU2512 - 2510 changed from 2.48 yuan/gram to 2.50 yuan/gram (0.8%), and AG2512 - 2510 changed from 26 yuan/kilogram to 28 yuan/kilogram (7.7%) [3] 3. Position Data - As of September 12, 2025, compared with September 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was at 974.8 tons (-0.32%), the silver ETF - SLV was at 15069.6026 tons (0.00%), the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 324875 contracts (2.87%), the non - commercial short position was 63135 contracts (-4.72%), the non - commercial net long position was 261740 contracts (4.89%), the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 72450 contracts (-2.71%), the non - commercial short position was 18513 contracts (-0.16%), and the non - commercial net long position was 53937 contracts (-3.55%) [3] 4. Inventory Data - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 53226.00 kilograms (0.52%), SHFE silver inventory was 1243481.00 kilograms (-0.25%), COMEX gold inventory was 38914491 troy ounces (0.01% compared with September 12), and COMEX silver inventory was 527423230 troy ounces (0.55% compared with September 12) [3] 5. Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Equity Market - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% (0.09%), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06% (1.25%), the US dollar index was 97.62 (0.05%), the VIX was 14.76 (0.34%), the S&P 500 was 6584.29 (-0.05%), NYMEX crude oil was 62.60 (0.58%), and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11 (1.14%) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no explicit industry investment rating provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The risk appetite of funds has improved, and the industry is waiting for the confirmation of the peak demand in the peak season. There is a possibility of improvement in both supply and demand of steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. However, there are concerns about the high inventory of building materials. Futures prices are neutrally valued, and the price upward - driving force is not strong for now. Attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can accelerate in the next two weeks [2]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The industry has turned from loss to profit, with increased supply. Terminal demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" needs to be verified, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric - furnace start - up rates, which may impact the demand for the two alloys [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The expectation of coal - mine over - production inspection has resurfaced. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Although the black fundamentals are weakening marginally, the bottom support for coking coal and coke is relatively strong under the influence of domestic policy expectations and overseas interest - rate cuts. Pre - holiday inventory replenishment is approaching, and the previous long positions should be held [5]. - **Iron Ore**: During the inventory - replenishment period, iron ore has support, but its price increase height depends on the strength of steel demand. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will suppress the price increase. A long - at - low strategy is maintained in the long term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On September 15, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3205.00 yuan/ton with a 42.00 yuan increase (1.33% increase), HC2605 at 3374.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.87% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3136.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.93% increase), HC2601 at 3370.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.87% increase) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 69.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a - 13.00 yuan change. The roll - screw spread was 234.00 yuan/ton, with a - 3.00 yuan change. The screw - ore ratio was 3.94, with a 0.03 change, etc. [1] Spot Market - **Steel**: The spot price of Shanghai thread steel (HRB400 20mm) was 3260.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a 12.50 yuan increase. The spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420.00 yuan/ton, with a 10.00 yuan increase [1]. - **Alloys and Other Materials**: The spot price of Qingdao Port super - special powder was 700.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a 9.00 yuan increase. The spot price of Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) was 1480.00 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Pay attention to the contraction of the roll - screw spread of the 01 contract for disk arbitrage. Consider reverse arbitrage for spot - futures trading (end - user buying hedging) [7]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Industrial customers should pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Hold the previous long positions [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Continue the strategy of going long at low prices [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel remains in an oversupply situation in the medium - to - long term, with demand mainly relying on battery - end increments and supply being affected by Indonesian policies and project commissioning speed [118]. - Macroeconomic factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies, along with the domestic "anti - involution" narrative, will influence nickel prices. The fundamental situation shows that the oversupply of primary nickel is hard to change, and nickel prices are hovering at the bottom [119]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Aspects - The Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September is almost certain, but the subsequent interest - rate cut path is unclear. The market should focus on the Fed's September FOMC meeting, dot plot, economic forecasts, and Powell's statements [15]. - The US employment situation has deteriorated significantly, with the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021, while inflation is rising steadily, increasing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut amplitude [16]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI performs well [17]. - China's economy showed better - than - expected performance in the first half of 2025, but some macro data have weakened recently. The government's policy orientation focuses on five key areas, and the "anti - involution" policy has been intensified, which may have a phased impact on industrial product prices [20][25]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - Philippine nickel ore shipments are at a peak, and port nickel ore inventories are seasonally increasing. In July 2025, nickel ore imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the port inventory increased by 50.1% compared to mid - year [32]. - Indonesian nickel ore premiums are at a high level, and imports from the Philippines are increasing. The RKAB approval policy needs attention, and the import volume of Philippine nickel ore by Indonesia is expected to reach 13 million wet tons in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 24.16% [39]. - Indonesian nickel - related policies have a significant impact on the industry. Policies such as export foreign - exchange control, adjustment of metal - mineral pricing methods, and shortening of RKAB quota approval years have increased the operating costs of Chinese - funded enterprises in Indonesia and affected the production and pricing of nickel products [43]. - China's nickel - iron production is generally declining, but prices have rebounded slightly recently. From January to August 2025, China's nickel - iron production decreased by 6.42% year - on - year, and prices rebounded from 900 yuan/nickel to around 955 yuan/nickel [52]. - Indonesian nickel - iron production continues to increase, and China's nickel - iron imports are rising, with Indonesia accounting for 97.5% of imports. From January to August 2025, Indonesian nickel - iron production increased by 24.81% year - on - year, and from January to July, China's nickel - iron imports increased by 16.3% year - on - year [60]. - The expansion of Indonesian NPI capacity has slowed down significantly, and attention should be paid to policy disturbances. The number of projects to be commissioned is decreasing, and profit conditions and policies will affect the commissioning progress [61]. - Indonesian nickel intermediate product supply continues to increase, with MHP production increasing significantly, ice - nickel production decreasing, and imports of both maintaining an upward trend. From January to August 2025, Indonesian MHP production increased by 58.76% year - on - year, and ice - nickel production decreased by 15.25% year - on - year [64]. - Indonesian nickel intermediate product capacity is still being commissioned. In 2025 - 2026, there are many MHP and ice - nickel projects to be commissioned, such as the Green Aiko and MMP projects [66]. - China's refined - nickel production has increased significantly, and global capacity is still in an expansion cycle. In 2025, China's estimated refined - nickel production is 440,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.5%. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of domestic and Indonesian projects [72]. - In terms of imports and exports, China's refined - nickel imports are mainly from Russia and Indonesia, and exports are mainly to LME delivery warehouses. From January to July 2025, imports increased by 189.27% year - on - year, and exports increased by 78.18% year - on - year [73]. - In terms of valuation, the valuation of pure nickel is anchored to the integrated production cost of electrowinning nickel. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel is relatively low, around 111,000 - 116,000 yuan/ton as of August 2025 [83]. Demand Side - Stainless - steel production is increasing year by year, and steel mills maintain a relatively high production schedule. From January to August 2025, stainless - steel production increased by 5.54% year - on - year, and Indonesian stainless - steel production increased by 0.08% year - on - year [88]. - The "rush - to - export" effect still exists, and stainless - steel demand maintains a certain level of resilience. From January to July 2025, domestic stainless - steel apparent consumption increased by 3.5% year - on - year, and it is expected to maintain a 3% growth rate for the whole year [89]. - The MHP coefficient is strong, and nickel - sulfate production remains stable. From January to July 2025, China's nickel - sulfate production increased by 0.1% year - on - year [95]. - The proportion of ternary batteries in new - energy vehicles is low, and the growth rate of nickel demand from the new - energy sector has slowed down. From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries accounted for 18.7% of the total, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.7% [111]. Inventory - Overseas LME nickel inventory is expected to continue to increase. As of September 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory increased by 5.48% compared to mid - year [115]. - China's domestic social inventory has decreased overall this year but increased slightly in the second half of the year. As of September 5, 2025, it increased by 7.1% compared to mid - year [115]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - Global primary nickel supply continues to increase, while demand shows mixed trends. Stainless - steel demand maintains some resilience, but there is a risk of weakening downstream orders. The new - energy sector has limited incremental demand for nickel, and the long - term focus is on the demand from solid - state batteries [117]. - Nickel remains in an oversupply situation. In the medium - to - long term, demand growth depends on the battery sector, and supply is affected by Indonesian policies and project commissioning speed [118]. - Macroeconomic uncertainties and fundamental oversupply will keep nickel prices hovering at the bottom. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to mining - end news and macro changes, and the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation of pure nickel [119].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is negative due to CATL's meeting related to the resumption of lithium mines. There is a discussion about whether eight major mines will shut down simultaneously on September 30. Fundamentally, if they shut down, the impact on the total supply will be limited as other sources can supplement. Emotionally, it will stimulate the bullish sentiment in the market. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the end - of - month time node [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,450, with a change of 3,000; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,200, with a change of 0 [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 848, with a change of 0; lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) price is 1075, (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1775; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) price is 5975, (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) price is 7065 [1][2]. Futures Contract Prices - Carbonate lithium 2510 closing price is 72,520, with a 2.28% increase; 2511 closing price is 72,680, with a 2.31% increase; 2512 closing price is 72,880, with a 2.3% increase; 2601 closing price is 72,880, with a 2.36% increase; 2602 closing price is 72,660, with a 1.99% increase [1]. Positive Electrode Material Prices - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) average price is 33,375; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) average price is 146,450; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) average price is 119,450; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) average price is 123,950 [2]. Inventory Information - Total inventory (weekly, tons) change is - 1580, with a current value of 138,512; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) change is 338, with a current value of 38,963; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) change is - 3262, with a current value of 36,213; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) change is 3072, with a current value of 58,279; other inventory (weekly, tons) change is - 1390, with a current value of 44,020 [2]. Profit Estimation - Profit from purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is - 3379; profit from purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is - 7008 [2]. Price Difference - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (FOF) is 2250; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 230; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 360 [2]. Policy Information - Eight ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to promote the industrialization of intelligent and connected technologies, standardize the competition order in the automobile industry, and more [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and there is no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. In the short term, it will still operate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, SP2601 was 5324 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.64%; SP2511 was 5056 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2509 was 4970 with a daily increase of 0.69% and a weekly decrease of 0.04% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.88%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.58%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily or weekly change [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In September 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese Utsumi was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: In September 2025, the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper was relatively stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard paper mills issued price increase letters, but the implementation situation remains to be observed [5] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 15, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 144 with a quantile level of 0.871; the Silver Star basis was 594 with a quantile level of 0.865 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 15, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.479 [5] Market Situation and Strategy - **Supply - side**: Brazilian Suzano announced a price increase of 20 dollars/ton in the Asian market in August 2025. Chilean Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable [5] - **Inventory - side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory change was not significant, and the commodity market was running strongly in the short term due to the anti - involution sentiment [5] - **Strategy**: The pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, and it will still operate weakly in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The necessity of policy support for the economy has increased as the economic data from January to August shows varying degrees of weakness in industrial production, investment, and consumption [6] - With a dense schedule of domestic and foreign macro - events this week, investors should control risks in stock index positions and mainly adjust for long - positions [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Interest Rate Data - DR001 closed at 1.41 with a 4.93bp increase, DR007 at 1.48 with a 2.57bp increase, GC001 at 1.36 with a 0.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 3.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.55, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.61 with a 0.45bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.80 with a 1.05bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature on Monday [4] Stock Index Market Data - The CSI 300 rose 0.24% to 4533.1, the SSE 50 fell 0.2% to 2962.6, the CSI 500 fell 0.15% to 7137.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.1% to 7415.6 [5] - The trading volume of the two - stock markets was 2.2774 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers, with game, agriculture, fishery, automobile, power equipment, and auto parts sectors leading the gains, and precious metals, jewelry, small metals, electronic chemicals, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5] Stock Index Futures Data - IF contracts: The current - month contract closed at 4528 with a 0.1% increase, the trading volume was 137,764 with a 7.3% decrease, and the open interest was 267,459 with a 4.0% decrease [5] - IH contracts: The current - month contract closed at 2962 with a 0.2% decrease, the trading volume was 25,348 with a 15.2% decrease, and the open interest was 98,524 with a 1.5% decrease [5] - IC contracts: The current - month contract closed at 7114 with a 0.4% decrease, the trading volume was 137,356 with a 21.9% decrease, and the open interest was 249,632 with a 6.8% decrease [5] - IM contracts: The current - month contract closed at 7369 with a 0.3% decrease, the trading volume was 194,389 with a 19.3% decrease, and the open interest was 356,703 with a 4.2% decrease [5] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Data - IF premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 10.58%, 3.34%, 3.06%, and 2.72% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates were 0.66%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, and - 0.09% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates were 29.61%, 13.93%, 10.66%, and 9.82% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates were 57.80%, 17.62%, 14.11%, and 12.72% respectively [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. With the reduction of precipitation in domestic production areas, the supply increased significantly. Overseas production areas were affected by rain, leading to high raw material prices. The production scheduling of downstream enterprises was better than expected, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. The inventory in the middle - stream continued to decline. However, the overall sentiment in the commodity market weakened, causing rubber prices to fall from high levels. In the short term, due to factors such as the weakening of precipitation in production areas, strong cost support, a slight decline in middle - stream inventory, an increase in downstream operating rates, and weakening commodity market sentiment, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating performance [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, the weather in Yunnan improved, and the supply - side pressure eased, but the strong demand for raw materials from processing plants supported a slight increase in raw material prices. In Hainan, the weather was good, and raw material output increased seasonally. In Thailand, continuous rain affected rubber tapping, leading to a shortage of raw material supply and rising prices. In Vietnam, the weather improvement was limited, and the shortage of raw materials continued [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules in the next period, with only small fluctuations in overall capacity utilization [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The warehouse receipt inventories of RU and 20 - numbered rubber on the futures exchanges also decreased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread narrowed slightly, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts widened [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, the theoretical production loss of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan narrowed, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole milk was still in a loss range [3] - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, the yield of US Treasury bonds decreased, and the risk appetite in the financial market increased. However, the domestic commodity market temporarily lacked driving forces, and the market sentiment was weak [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. Considering various factors, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Sentiment and Price Trend**: The market sentiment cooled down, and rubber returned to a weak state. This week, natural rubber rose first and then fell. As of September 12, the RU main contract closed at 15,820 yuan/ton, down 3.09% week - on - week, and the 20 - numbered rubber main contract closed at 12,555 yuan/ton, down 4.09% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices fell slightly [9] - **Position on the Futures Board**: The position of the RU2601 contract decreased significantly, and the total position of NR decreased slightly [16][23] - **Spread on the Futures Board**: The RU - NR spread widened slightly [30] 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: The rainfall in production areas decreased [37] - **Production and Export of Main Producing Countries**: In July, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 5.443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.54%. From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year increase of 21.82%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19% [72][85][92] - **Middle - Stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. As of September 7, 2025, the social inventory was 1.258 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 million tons, or 0.57% [100][107] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tires increased. This week, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. It is expected that the overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly in the next period [108][117] - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Market**: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded. In August, the sales volume of heavy - trucks increased significantly year - on - year [123] - **Tire Export**: From January to July, the export volume of tires was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [132] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, and the profit of Thai latex decreased [141]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic PTA device is gradually returning, and domestic PTA production is rising while PTA basis is rapidly declining. OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production again at Sunday's meeting, and the spread between PX and naphtha remains stable. With the recent improvement in production and sales and inventory reduction, especially the significant reduction of filament inventory, downstream profits are significantly repaired, and the operating load of polyester has rebounded to 91%. However, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the basis, PTA shows weakness [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4620 to 4575, a change of -45; MEG domestic price decreased from 4414 to 4386, a change of -28; PTA closing price decreased from 4688 to 4648, a change of -40; MEG closing price decreased from 4302 to 4272, a change of -30; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6565 to 6520, a change of -45; short - fiber basis remained unchanged at 90; 10 - 11 spread decreased from 6 to 4, a change of -2; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5700; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 865 to 820, a change of -45; East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5870 to 5850, a change of -20; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5870 to 5850, a change of -20; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5970 to 5950, a change of -20; outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 765 to 760, a change of -5; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 441 to 469, a change of 27.85; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3735 to 3780, a change of 45; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16270; cotton 328 price remained unchanged at 14950; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1266 to 1296, a change of 29.84; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7110 to 7095, a change of -15; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 481 to 514, a change of 32.85; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7450 to 7430, a change of -20 [2]. Market Conditions - Short - fiber: Polyester staple fiber dropped 34 to 6332. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were stable, while those of traders declined. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the on - site trading volume was limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6300 - 6600 in cash on the spot, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6420 - 6720 in cash on the spot, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6350 - 6550 in cash on the spot, tax - included delivery. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5790 - 5880 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. On the day, polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly. Most offers on the supply side were adjusted downward, and downstream end - users replenished stocks on a rigid basis. The trading atmosphere was fair, and the price center of bottle chips declined [2]. Load and Production and Sales Rates - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 90.60% to 91.10%, a change of 0.01; polyester staple fiber production and sales rate decreased from 64.00% to 51.00%, a change of -13.00%; polyester yarn start - up rate (weekly) increased from 62.00% to 62.80%, a change of 0.01; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 49.00% to 49.50%, a change of 0.01 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 12, 2025, SP2601 was 5300 with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly decrease of 0.34%; SP2511 was 5016 with a daily increase of 0.40% and a weekly decrease of 0.71%; SP2509 was 4960 with a daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly decrease of 0.68% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.22%; Russian Needle was 5170 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.58%; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.48% [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote for Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese NBSK was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85% [5] - **Supply - Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly from July 31 to September 11, 2025 [5] - **Supply - Shipment Volume**: The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2% [5] - **Inventory - Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 24.5 tons, showing a slight change compared to previous periods [5] - **Demand - Finished Paper Production**: From July 31 to September 11, 2025, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 12, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 154 with a quantile level of 0.877; the Silver Star basis was 634 with a quantile level of 0.879 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.478 [5] Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand Side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be seen [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports showed a narrow - range destocking trend [5] Strategy - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and the pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5]

Group 1: Market and Liquidity - Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -0.60 bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with a -2.38 bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.37 with a 28.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.46 with a 4.50 bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.40 with a 0.07 bp change, 5 - year at 1.61 with a -1.32 bp change [4] - 10 - year treasury closed at 1.86 with a -1.01 bp change, 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00 bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.2645 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.0684 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Monday [5] Group 2: Market and Liquidity - Stock Indexes - CSI 300 closed at 4522 with a -0.57% change, IF current month at 4523 with a -0.9% change [6] - SSE 50 closed at 2969 with a -0.49% change, IH current month at 2969 with a -0.7% change [6] - CSI 500 closed at 7148 with a 0.35% change, IC current month at 7140 with a 0.2% change [6] - CSI 1000 closed at 7423 with a 0.31% change, IM current month at 7393 with a 0.1% change [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 1.38% to 4522, SSE 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5, CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7, and CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [6] - Last week, in the Shenwan primary industry index, electronics (6.1%), real estate (6%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (4.8%), media (4.3%), and non - ferrous metals (3.8%) led the gains, while only comprehensive (-1.4%), banking (-0.7%), pharmaceutical biology (-0.4%), and social services (-0.3%) declined [6] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 2.2215 trillion yuan, 1.9424 trillion yuan, 1.8096 trillion yuan, 2.1904 trillion yuan, and 2.2681 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 247.39 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Market and Liquidity - Futures Volume and Open Interest - IF trading volume was 148,623 with a -12.4% change, and open interest was 278,489 with a -1.3% change [6] - IH trading volume was 65,282 with a -8.0% change, and open interest was 100,041 with a -4.2% change [6] - IC trading volume was 175,859 with a -10.2% change, and open interest was 267,758 with a 0.5% change [6] - IM trading volume was 240,836 with a -24.3% change, and open interest was 372,165 with a -4.2% change [6] Group 4: Market and Liquidity - Futures Basis - IF basis for current month was -1.94%, next month was 1.22%, current quarter was 2.10%, and next quarter was 1.90% [8] - IH basis for current month was -0.15%, next month was -0.17%, current quarter was -0.11%, and next quarter was -0.23% [8] - IC basis for current month was 7.91%, next month was 9.06%, current quarter was 8.45%, and next quarter was 8.40% [8] - IM basis for current month was 29.59%, next month was 14.44%, current quarter was 12.77%, and next quarter was 11.82% [8] Group 5: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In August, the new social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.8% [7] - Government bond net financing decreased by 251.9 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate short - term loans increased by 260 billion yuan year - on - year [7] - Resident short - term loans only increased by 1.05 billion yuan, and M1 year - on - year growth rate rose slightly to 6% [7] - In the coming week, there will be many domestic and international macro events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and China - US leaders will have talks [7] - Last week, the stock index rose further, with CSI 500 leading the rise in index futures. Market trading volume decreased last week [7] - The strategy is to control risks in index futures positions and mainly adjust for long positions next week [7]