Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The seven - department joint guidance on financial support for new industrialization has made relevant beneficiary sectors perform strongly. Current stock index valuations are still supported. For example, although the P/E ratio of CSI 300 has returned to the median, the ERP is still at a historical high (74.25% quantile). With Huijin shoring up liquidity, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role. The strategy is to go long on stock indices opportunistically this week [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - DROO1 closed at 1.31 with a - 0.03bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a - 0.73bp change, GC001 at 1.55 with a 24.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 3.00bp change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.56 with a - 0.10bp change, and LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year Treasury bond was at 1.37 with a 0.24bp change, 5 - year at 1.57 with a - 0.49bp change, 10 - year at 1.70 with a - 0.89bp change, and 10 - year US Treasury at 4.22 with a - 1.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 4492 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 2885 billion yuan. This week, 16632 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with maturities of 4958 billion, 4492 billion, 3090 billion, 2832 billion, and 1260 billion yuan from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, MLF a net injection of 1000 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 2300 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchases a net injection of 1880 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchases a net injection of 2000 billion yuan. There were no open - market Treasury bond transactions in July [4][5] 3.2 Stock Market - CSI 300 closed at 4103, up 0.8%; SSE 50 at 2791, up 0.77%; CSI 500 at 6303, up 0.66%; and CSI 1000 at 6787, up 0.71%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15961 billion yuan, an increase of 975 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with communication equipment, consumer electronics, plastic products, insurance, auto parts, banking, transportation equipment, and wind power equipment sectors leading the gains, while the traditional Chinese medicine sector led the losses [6] - IF volume was 80521, up 4.4%; IF open interest was 255640, up 0.4%. IH volume was 40737, up 5.8%; IH open interest was 92725, up 0.7%. IC volume was 72420, down 15.1%; IC open interest was 215144, down 0.8%. IM volume was 155305, down 17.9%; IM open interest was 329938, down 2.1% [6] 3.3 Futures Market (Stock Index Futures Basis) - IF basis for the current - month contract was 7.52%, 0.00% for the next - month contract, 0.01% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.25% for the next - quarter contract. IH basis for the current - month contract was 1.74%, - 0.08% for the next - month contract, - 0.20% for the current - quarter contract, and - 0.19% for the next - quarter contract. IC basis for the current - month contract was 21.91%. IM basis for the current - month contract was 17.79%, 12.61% for the next - month contract, 11.73% for the current - quarter contract, and 11.29% for the next - quarter contract [8]

Market Review - The closing price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index was 2769.3934, up 0.55%, with a trading volume of 41.97 billion and a turnover of 802.52 billion yuan [4] - The closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4070.7023, up 0.39%, with a trading volume of 162.28 billion and a turnover of 2959.77 billion yuan [4] - The closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 6739.6936, up 1.04%, with a trading volume of 213.49 billion and a turnover of 3295.55 billion yuan [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to 3583.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.5%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 0.96%, the STAR 50 Index rose 1.22%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.76%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.44%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.45%. A - shares traded 1.52 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 1.62 trillion yuan the previous day [7] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options - Option trading volume was 3.03 million contracts, including 1.99 million call options and 1.04 million put options, with a PCR of 0.52 [4] - Option open interest was 7.40 million contracts, including 4.77 million call options and 2.64 million put options, with a PCR of 0.55 [4] CSI 300 Index Options - Option trading volume was 7.23 million contracts, including 4.57 million call options and 2.67 million put options, with a PCR of 0.58 [4] - Option open interest was 20.52 million contracts, including 12.21 million call options and 8.31 million put options, with a PCR of 0.68 [4] CSI 1000 Index Options - Option trading volume was 21.71 million contracts, including 11.80 million call options and 9.91 million put options, with a PCR of 0.84 [4] - Option open interest was 27.61 million contracts, including 13.94 million call options and 13.67 million put options, with a PCR of 0.98 [4] Volatility Analysis Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Volatility - Analyzed historical volatility chain, maximum, minimum, percentile values, and next - month at - the - money implied volatility, as well as the volatility smile curve [6][12] CSI 300 Volatility - Analyzed historical volatility chain, maximum, minimum, percentile values, and next - month at - the - money implied volatility, as well as the volatility smile curve [12] CSI 1000 Volatility - Analyzed historical volatility chain, maximum, minimum, percentile values, and next - month at - the - money implied volatility, as well as the volatility smile curve [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a state of shock, mainly due to the increase in over - capacity during the off - season caused by overtime ships, leading to a lower opening of the main contract [6]. - Spot prices have peaked. Quotes started to weaken in early August, and this will drive prices in late August to decline. It is expected that spot prices will peak at the end of July and early August, then slowly decline until late August when the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [7]. - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies (profits can be taken as there has been a significant recent correction), and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Contents Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1551, the previous value was 1593, with a decline of 2.63% [3][4]. - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 1233, the previous value was 1261, with a decline of 2.27% [3][4]. - **SCFI - US West Coast**: The current value is 2021, the previous value was 2067, with a decline of 2.23% [3][4]. - **SCFIS - US West Coast**: The current value is 1130, the previous value was 1284, with a sharp decline of 11.99% [3][4]. - **SCFI - US East Coast**: The current value is 3126, the previous value was 3378, with a decline of 7.46% [3][4]. - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 2051, the previous value was 2090, with a decline of 1.87% [3][4]. - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 2297, the previous value was 2316, with a decline of 0.82% [3][4]. - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 2333, the previous value was 2418, with a decline of 3.52% [3][4]. EC Contracts Price - **EC2506**: The current value is 1453.2, the previous value was 1465.1, with a decline of 0.81% [3][4]. - **EC2508**: The current value is 2122.3, the previous value was 2126.5, with a decline of 0.20% [3][4]. - **EC2510**: The current value is 1421.8, the previous value was 1424.0, with a decline of 0.15% [3][4]. - **EC2512**: The current value is 1677.2, the previous value was 1692.4, with a decline of 0.90% [3][4]. - **EC5602**: The current value is 1470.2, the previous value was 1490.0, with a decline of 1.33% [3][4]. - **EC2604**: The current value is 1315.1, the previous value was 1325.0, with a decline of 0.75% [3][4]. Position - **EC2606 Position**: The current value is 795, the same as the previous value, with a change of 0 [3][4]. - **EC2508 Position**: The current value is 4367, the previous value was 4465, with a decline of 98 [3][4]. - **EC2410 Position**: The current value is 51053, the previous value was 52376, with a decline of 1323 [3][4]. - **EC2412 Position**: The current value is 8387, the previous value was 8440, with a decline of 53 [3][4]. - **EC2602 Position**: The current value is 4139, the previous value was 4142, with a decline of 3 [3][4]. - **EC2604 Position**: The current value is 5146, the previous value was 5112, with an increase of 34 [3][4]. Monthly Spread - **10 - 12 Spread**: The current value is - 255.4, the previous value was - 268.4, with an increase of 13.0 [3][4]. - **12 - 2 Spread**: The current value is 207.0, the previous value was 202.4, with an increase of 4.6 [3][4]. - **12 - 4 Spread**: The current value is 362.1, the previous value was 367.4, with a decline of 5.3 [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.36% to 781.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.3% to 9039 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The significantly lower-than-expected non - farm payrolls in the US in July, along with the revised reduction of 258,000 jobs in May and June, highlight the sharp slowdown risk in the US labor market. Coupled with the July ISM manufacturing PMI being lower than expected and in the contraction range for five consecutive months, it triggers new concerns about a US economic recession, leading to a sudden increase in the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The market currently expects an 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which drives the strong rebound of precious metal prices. Additionally, Trump's new round of tariffs on multiple countries and the poor US economic data boost market risk - aversion demand, supporting precious metal prices. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, which may continue to support the strong performance of gold prices. Silver generally follows gold but may perform weaker under the new economic recession concerns [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, there is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified major - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases continue, so the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3360.20 per ounce, London silver spot at $37.22 per ounce, COMEX gold at $3413.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver at $37.26 per ounce. Compared with August 1, 2025, the price increases were 2.1%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 1.6% respectively. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed varying degrees of increase, with increases ranging from 1.3% to 1.4% [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: As of August 4, 2025, the spread between gold TD and SHFE active price was - 4.32 yuan/gram, and the spread between silver TD and SHFE active price was - 31 yuan/kilogram. Compared with August 1, 2025, the spreads had different degrees of change, with increases of 12.5% and 24.0% respectively [3]. Position Data - As of August 1, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 953.08 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15056.66493 tons. Compared with July 31, 2025, they decreased by 0.15% and 0.04% respectively. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of decline [3]. Inventory Data - On August 4, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 35889.00 kilograms, an increase of 0.40% compared with August 1, 2025. The SHFE silver inventory was 1174273.00 kilograms, a decrease of 0.82% compared with August 1, 2025. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also showed slight increases [3]. Other Market Data - As of August 4, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.69%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the US dollar index was 98.69, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.14. Compared with August 1, 2025, they had different degrees of change, with the US dollar index decreasing by 0.14%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreasing by 3.20%, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield increasing by 21.89% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel futures prices show signs of temporary stabilization, with the price matching the cost support of EAF valley electricity. The supply - demand structure has marginally weakened, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is expected to return to the industrial fundamentals. Future price movements depend on pre - parade production restrictions, and the near - term support level is the EAF valley electricity cost [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the steel - coke game has intensified. The coal price is relatively firm, and the market is volatile. The black - commodity sector is expected to be in a volatile state. It is recommended to be bearish on jm09 and take profit on previous cash - and - carry arbitrage [4][5]. - The price fluctuations of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have decreased. The "anti - involution" logic supports the prices. The supply is slightly increasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the inventory level is still high, and the industry profit has been repaired [5]. - After the relevant meetings, the iron ore market has been volatile. Although the iron - making water output has declined, it remains at a high level. The "anti - involution" policy is likely to continue, and the future supply of iron ore is expected to increase, which will limit the price increase. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below and may rise after adjustment [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures prices showed a small rebound after a decline on Monday, matching the EAF valley electricity cost support. Spot prices declined slightly, and trading volume increased. The supply - demand structure has marginally weakened, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. The "anti - involution" story will diverge. Future price movements depend on pre - parade production restrictions, and the near - term support level is the EAF valley electricity cost [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the steel - coke game has intensified. The coal price is relatively firm, and the market trading volume is average. The futures market opened low and moved high on Monday, with support at the 20 - day line. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to be bearish on jm09 and take profit on previous cash - and - carry arbitrage [4][5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The price fluctuations have decreased. The "anti - involution" logic supports the prices. The supply is slightly increasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the inventory level is still high. The industry profit has been repaired [5]. Iron Ore - After the relevant meetings, the market has been volatile. The iron - making water output has declined but remains at a high level. The "anti - involution" policy is likely to continue, and the future supply of iron ore is expected to increase, which will limit the price increase. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below and may rise after adjustment [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Stock Index, Gold, Soybean Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Corn (01 Contract), LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Alumina, Polycrystalline Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton (01 Contract), Sugar, Corn (09 Contract), Soybeans (01 Contract), Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Urea, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping (European Line) [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index has resumed a relatively strong trend after short - term "good news exhaustion" trading, with valuation support. It is advisable to go long on the stock index this week [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to rising interest rate cut expectations [1]. - Base metals in the non - ferrous sector are generally under pressure due to weak macro - sentiment and other factors [1]. - Agricultural products show different trends, with some like soybean oil expected to rise and others like corn showing mixed outlooks [1]. - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors, presenting various trends [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: After short - term "good news exhaustion" trading, it has resumed a strong trend. The current valuation has support, and the ERP of CSI 300 is at a historical high. It is recommended to go long this week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning from the central bank suppresses the upward space [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Rising interest rate cut expectations are expected to keep the price strong [1]. - **Silver**: Follows gold but may be mainly driven by fundamentals and is expected to fluctuate [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US non - farm data is weak, and the ISM manufacturing index has declined. With obvious demand off - season characteristics, the price may further correct [1]. - **Aluminum**: Weak macro - sentiment and pressured downstream demand lead to a weak price trend [1]. - **Alumina**: Although news boosts the price, the increase in production and inventory leads to a weak fundamental situation, and the price fluctuates [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term upward pressure is large due to inventory accumulation and supply recovery, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - **Nickel**: US non - farm data slows down, increasing overseas recession concerns. The demand side performs poorly, and the price fluctuates weakly in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by macro factors in the short term, it is recommended to sell high and hedge, and pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunities [1]. - **Tin**: It returns to fundamental trading in the short term, and the driving force is limited under the weak supply - demand pattern [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There are signs of sporadic resumption of production in the southwest, and there are expectations of production cuts in polycrystalline silicon. The policy corrects the anti - involution statement, and the price is bearish [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform, high market sentiment, and policy correction of anti - involution statement, and the price fluctuates [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Resource - end disturbances are frequent, short - term downstream replenishment is large but the subsequent space is limited, and the policy corrects the anti - involution statement, and the price is bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Weak exports from Malaysia in July and reduced Indian imports may bring short - term pressure, but the downside support is strong, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Tightening Sino - US relations support the price from the cost side of imported soybeans, and exports to India raise the valuation center, which is expected to rise to repair the soybean - palm oil price spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to buy low and sell high. Reduced rapeseed production may benefit the far - month market, and it is advisable to wait for long - entry opportunities [1]. - **Cotton**: The short - term increase in positions is driven by the near - month squeeze logic. The height of the 01 contract is limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to the time window at the end of July and early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **Sugar**: It is running strongly, with the bottom - divergence rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the height is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the range of 5600 - 6000 [1]. - **Corn**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate due to slow inventory depletion in the south port, weak downstream demand, and high warehouse receipt pressure. The 01 contract is bearish due to autumn harvest pressure and reduced planting costs [1]. - **Soybeans**: The US market has no weather premium, and Sino - US trade policies have not eased, so the US soybeans are under pressure, but the downside space is limited. The domestic far - month has de - stocking expectations, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions rise due to US threats of sanctions against Russia, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and short - term strong consumption in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, affected by geopolitical and consumption factors [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. Cost disturbances and demand recovery balance each other, with limited fluctuations [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Short - term rainfall in the production area decreases, inventory depletion is slow, and the commodity market sentiment cools down [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is expected to weaken, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the spot price is lowered. The disk is expected to consolidate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies and butadiene arrivals in East China [1]. - **PTA**: Supply has shrunk, the crude oil price is strong, the polyester downstream load has decreased, the port inventory has slightly decreased, and the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal prices have risen slightly, the commodity sentiment has weakened, the overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance has been postponed, the supply has shrunk, and the market expects less future arrivals [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, factory maintenance has increased, and the cost follows closely under high basis conditions [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure benzene price has slightly declined, styrene shipments are active, the device load has increased, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: There are supply contraction expectations, domestic demand has entered the off - season, the macro - sentiment has subsided, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - **PVC**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The disk fluctuates strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is coming to an end, the spot price has fallen to a low level, and the premium of caustic soda delivery substitutes has increased [1]. - **LPG**: Crude oil support is insufficient, the international fundamentals are loose, port propane inventory is high, the CP price in August has dropped significantly, the combustion demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the chemical demand is average. The domestic LPG price is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to tariff policy adjustments [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: There are signs that the freight rate has peaked, European ports are still congested, and there are many additional ships in August [1].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 型班目 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/8/5 | 指标 | | 8月4日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 46 | 16 | 2500 2000 | ===== 19/20 | | ------ 20/21 ====- 21/22 =======22/23 | | | · 23/24 | · 24/25 | | | 日照 | -104 -104 | -14 6 | 1000 -500 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -44 | 6 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | | | | | | 09/21 10/22 11/22 12/ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, pulp futures returned to fundamental pricing and are expected to fluctuate widely between 5,100 and 5,400 [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: On August 4, 2025, SP2601 was 5,396, down 0.37% day-on-day and 1.68% week-on-week; SP2605 was 5,368, down 0.07% day-on-day and up 0.71% week-on-week; SP2509 was 5,168, down 0.35% day-on-day and 3.58% week-on-week [1] - Spot prices: On August 4, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,850, with no daily change and a 1.18% weekly decline; Russian coniferous pulp was 5,180, down 2.26% day-on-day and 4.95% week-on-week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4,120, with no daily change and a 0.72% weekly decline [1] - Foreign quotes and import costs: The foreign quote for Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month-on-month; Chilean Star was 500, down 10.71% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 620, with no monthly change. The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5,884, down 2.68% month-on-month; Chilean Star was 4,101, down 10.60% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 5,073, with no monthly change [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - Supply: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month-on-month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month-on-month. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 20.9 tons, and the production of chemimechanical pulp was 20.9 tons. The shipment volume of W20 to China in May increased by 3.3% month-on-month [1] - Demand: This week, the production of major finished paper decreased slightly, and the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2] - Inventory: As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% month-on-month decline, showing a destocking trend [2] Pulp Valuation Data - On August 4, 2025, the basis of Russian coniferous pulp was 12, with a quantile level of 0.725; the basis of Silver Star was 682, with a quantile level of 0.907. The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was -34, with a quantile level of 0.545; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 19, with a quantile level of 0.653 [1]

Group 1: Market Data and Repo Operations - The closing price of DROO1 is 1.31, up 0.07 bp; DR007 is 1.45, up 2.76 bp; GC001 is 1.31, up 1.50 bp; GC007 is 1.46, down 0.50 bp; SHBOR 3M is 1.56, down 0.40 bp; LPR 5 - year is 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond is 1.37, down 0.40 bp; 5 - year treasury bond is 1.58, up 0.81 bp; 10 - year treasury bond is 1.71, up 0.42 bp; 10 - year US treasury bond is 4.23, down 14.00 bp [4] - The central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 105.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing on the same day and 495.8 billion yuan maturing in total. The net investment on the day was 49 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1,663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 495.8 billion, 449.2 billion, 309 billion, 283.2 billion, and 126 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.39% to 4070.7; SSE 50 rose 0.55% to 2769.4; CSI 500 rose 0.78% to 6261.7; CSI 1000 rose 1.04% to 6739.7. The trading volume of the two stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1,498.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 99.8 billion yuan from last Friday [4] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with aerospace, precious metals, motors, instrumentation, general equipment, jewelry, shipbuilding, auto parts, and plastic products leading the gains, while commercial department stores and insurance sectors leading the losses [4] - After a short - term "profit - taking" trading, the stock index regained its strong trend. The current stock index valuation is still supported. Taking the CSI 300 as an example, although its P/E ratio has returned to the median, the ERP is still at a historical high (74.25% quantile). With Huijin supporting liquidity, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role. The strategy is to go long on the stock index this week [5] Group 3: Futures Market - Ascending and Descending Water Conditions - IF ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is 4.49%, the next - month contract is 0.00%, the current - quarter contract is 0.01%, and the next - quarter contract is 3.06% [6] - IH ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is - 0.97%, the next - month contract is - 0.29% (11.75% annualized), the current - quarter contract is - 0.27% (10.52% annualized), and the next - quarter contract is - 0.23% (9.63% annualized) [6] - IC ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is 16.50%, the current - quarter contract is 11.29%, and the next - quarter contract is 10.92% [6] - IM ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is 13.73%, and the next - month contract is 11.43% [6]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment for bulk chemicals is weak due to the decline in crude oil prices. The PTA market shows a weakening spot basis and falling spot prices, while the ethylene glycol market experiences a slight decline in spot prices and a slightly stronger basis negotiation. The polyester market has weakening production and sales, and the downstream weaving profit is shrinking, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price dropped from 527.9 yuan/barrel on August 1st to 514.3 yuan/barrel on August 4th, a decrease of 13.6 yuan [2]. - **PTA**: The主力期 price decreased from 4744 yuan/ton to 4698 yuan/ton, a drop of 46 yuan; the spot price fell from 4750 yuan/ton to 4690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The spot processing fee decreased slightly by 0.4 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 3.6 yuan/ton. The PTA - SC spread increased by 52.83 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0204. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 600 to 27131 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price decreased from 846 to 838, a drop of 8; the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 8 to 234. The PX operating rate increased by 0.82 percentage points to 78.11% [2]. - **MEG**: The主力期 price dropped from 4405 yuan/ton to 4389 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the MEG - naphtha spread increased slightly by 0.8 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 4480 to 4455, a drop of 25 yuan. The basis of the main contract increased by 15 to 78. The MEG operating rate remained unchanged at 58.81% [2]. Polyester Products - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F decreased by 25 yuan and 70 yuan respectively, while the price of DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The cash flows of POY, DTY improved by 35 yuan and 60 yuan respectively, and the cash flow of FDY decreased by 10 yuan. The production and sales rate of filament increased from 25% to 32% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 25 yuan to 6575 yuan/ton. The cash flow increased by 35 yuan to 173 yuan/ton, and the production and sales rate decreased from 56% to 49% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 45 yuan to 5800 yuan/ton. The cash flow increased by 15 yuan to - 52 yuan/ton, and the production and sales rate increased from 59% to 63% [2]. Industry Operating Conditions - The PTA operating rate increased by 2.75 percentage points to 76.81%, the MEG operating rate remained unchanged at 58.81%, and the polyester load remained unchanged at 86.15% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].