1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows a volatile performance. With the supply side presenting stable raw - material prices in Thailand, and specific price levels in Yunnan and Hainan. The mid - stream inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the downstream tire factory capacity utilization has decreased. After the RU warehouse receipt cancellation, the current number of warehouse receipts on the disk is at a low level. Considering the end - of - year period and the main contract roll - over stage in the commodity market, the overall market lacks driving forces, and the rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The trading strategy is to temporarily hold off on unilateral positions and focus on the arbitrage of going long on NR and short on RU [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU main contract is at 15195, up 70; NR main contract is at 12165, up 15; BR main contract is at 10360, up 90 [3] - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 is at 334.1 yen/kg, down 1.5; Sicom TF is at 170.5 cents/kg, unchanged [3] - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2605 - RU2601 is 60, down 15; RU2609 - RU2605 is 35, up 5; NR main - second main is - 25, up 5; BR main - second main is 5, down 10 [3] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - NR is 3030, up 55; RU - BR is 4835, down 20; NR - BR is 1805, down 75 [3] - **Inter - market Spreads**: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) is 5, up 24; NR - Sicom TF ($) is 13, up 5 [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Thailand (Baht/kg)**: Glue is 57.00, unchanged; cup - lump price is not available [3] - **Hainan and Yunnan (Yuan/ton)**: Hainan glue for concentrated latex is 14300, unchanged; Hainan glue for whole milk is 13100 - 14200, unchanged; Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 13900, unchanged; Yunnan rubber block for whole milk is 13900, unchanged [3] 3.3 Factory Costs and Profits - **Whole - latex Delivery Profits**: Hainan is - 2548, down 29; Yunnan is - 428, up 71; Thailand is 346, down 10 [3] - **Concentrated Latex Production Profits**: Hainan is - 364, down 65 [3] - **Smoked Sheet and 20 - grade Rubber Gross Profits**: Thai smoked sheet is 1370, down 14; Thai 20 - grade rubber is - 515, up 270 [3] 3.4 Domestic Spot - **Light - colored Rubber**: Old whole milk is 14800, up 50; Vietnamese 3L is 15150, down 100; Thai mixed rubber is 14550, unchanged; Malaysian mixed rubber is 14500, unchanged [3] - **Dark - colored Rubber**: Thai standard is 12991, up 30; domestic standard II is 13750, unchanged [3] - **Latex**: Shanghai: Huangchunfa bulk is 11450, down 50; Shanghai: Hainan bulk is 11200, unchanged [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10400, down 100; Styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 10850, down 100; Styrene - butadiene SBR1712 is 9850, down 50 [3] - **Mixed Rubber**: Thai mixed CIF is 1815, unchanged; Malaysian frost CIF is 1805, unchanged [3] 3.5 Overseas Spot - **Standard Rubber**: Thai standard CIF is 1815, unchanged; Malaysian standard CIF is 1805, unchanged; Indian standard CIF is 1730, unchanged [3] 3.6 Futures - Spot Spreads - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed is 645, up 70; RU - old whole milk is 395, up 20; RU - Vietnamese 3L is 45, up 170 [3] - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit is - 835, up 15; NR - Indian standard delivery profit is - 198, up 15; NR - Malaysian standard delivery profit is - 765, up 15 [3] - **Spot Spreads - Variety Spreads**: Thai standard - Thai mixed ($) is 10, unchanged; Vietnamese 3L - Thai mixed is 600, down 100; domestic standard II - Thai mixed is - 800, unchanged; old whole milk - Vietnamese 3L is - 350, up 150; domestic 9710 - Thai mixed is - 350, unchanged; Thai standard - African 10 - grade ($) is 110, unchanged [3] 3.7 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - **Exchange Rates**: US dollar index is 99.8123, US dollar/Chinese yuan is 7.0796, down 0.003; US dollar/Japanese yen is 156.0730, unchanged; US dollar/Thai baht is 32.2675, unchanged [3] - **Interest Rates**: SHIBOR - overnight is 1.316, unchanged; SHIBOR - seven - day is 1.453, up 0.020 [3] 3.8 Supply, Demand and Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Thai raw - material glue price is 57 baht/kg, unchanged; cup - lump price is not available. Yunnan glue for whole - milk production is 13900 yuan/ton, unchanged; for concentrated latex is 14200 yuan/ton, unchanged. Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 16200 yuan/ton, up 0.62%; for concentrated latex is 16200 yuan/ton, up 0.62% [3] - **Mid - stream Inventory**: As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 46.89 tons, a 3.60% increase from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory is 7.19 tons, with a 7.97% increase; the general - trade inventory is 39.7 tons, with a 2.84% increase [3] - **Downstream Tire Factories**: The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.04%, a 2.25 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 1.56 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.36%, a 3.63 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 10.40 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [3]

2025/11/27 | 指标 | | 11月26日 | 涨跌 | 升贴水 | 对主力基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 锦州港平舱价 | 2290 | 20 | 0 | 56 | | | 鲅鱼圈港平舱价 | 2275 | 25 | 0 | 41 | | | 蛇口港市场价 | 2460 | 30 | | | | | 黑龙江省-哈尔滨 | 2050 | 0 | -195 | 11 | | | 黑龙江省-绥化 | 2030 | 0 | -195 | -9 | | | 吉林省-长春 | 2130 | 0 | -130 | 26 | | | 辽宁省-沈阳 | 2200 | 30 | -80 | 46 | | | 辽宁省-铁岭 | 2180 | 20 | -80 | 26 | | 玉米现货 | | | | | | | | 内蒙古-通辽 | 2160 | 0 | -100 | 26 | | | 内蒙古-赤峰 | 2150 | 0 | -100 | 16 | | | 河北省-邯郸 | 2210 | 0 | I | - | | | 河北省-石家庄 | 2210 | 0 ...

5、越来越多的专家预测,2026年原油供应增长将超过需求增长。德意志银行周 一在一份报告中表示,预计明年原油供应将至少过剩200万桶/,并且即使到2027 年,也没有明确的路径回归供应短缺。 【BU】 观点:华北地区高价沥青资源出货节奏偏缓,贸易商今日适度下调报价以促 进走货;西北地区受镇海炼化昨日火运价格下调影响,区域内主流报价重心同步 走低:华南与华东市场需求端释放不及预期,中下游企业采购态度偏谨慎,多以 消化既有库存为主,炼厂及社会库存报价均保持稳定。后市来看,山东、华北地 区终端需求表现平淡,市场成交多集中于低价货源,短期沥青价格大概率呈弱势 运行;而华南、华东市场供应端存在收缩预期,沥青价格或暂时维持平稳态势。 3、据德意志商业银行的商品分析师Carsten Fritsch指出,即便美国的制裁可 能有所缓解,欧洲某国的石油产量也不太可能出现大幅增长。因为OPEC+组织的 产量配额限制,以及现有生产设施已接近满负荷运行的状态,都制约了产量的进 一步增加。"由于欧洲某国的产量很可能已经接近其生产能力上限,因此如果 OPEC+决定在明年进一步提高产量目标,那么欧洲某国的产量很难再有显著增长 。根据国际能源 ...

| | | | | 投资询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 C 国贸期货 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 甲醇数据日报 | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | | 2025/11/27 | | | | 数据来源:钢联 | | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | 들 | | 内蒙古北线 陕西关中 太仓 | | | 广东 | 山东临沂 | 河南 | | 现点 | 现值 | 2090 | 1990 | 1940 | 2050 | 2215 | 2075 | | 货区 | 前值 | 2060 | 1985 | 1935 | 2030 | 2190 | 2065 | | 域 | 涨幅 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 10 | | 期 号 | | MA2601 MA2605 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 2094 | 2201 | | | | | | 货 纪 | 前值 | 2067 | 218 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has support and pressure in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing stocks. In the long - term, it depends on policies and weather. Strategies include selling high and buying back the spread between January and May contracts and going long on far - month contracts at low prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 26 was 13625, down 20 (-0.15%) from November 25; CF05 was 13585, up 5 (0.04%); CF01 - 05 was 40, down 25 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 26, it was 14700, up 101 (0.69%); in Henan, 14896, up 48 (0.32%); in Shandong, 14951, up 41 (0.27%); Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1075, up 121 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 26 was 20070, up 5 (0.02%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20660, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 64 (USD/ pound), unchanged; the arrival price was 73.30, up 0.3 (0.41%); 1% quota delivery price was 12830, up 51 (0.40%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 13868, up 31 (0.22%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6445, up 25; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 1038, down 20; the spot internal - external spread was 2121, down 10 [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Glass, Agricultural Products (in some aspects), PTA, Short Fiber - Bearish: Palm Oil, Live Pigs - Neutral/Oscillating: Macro Finance, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Soda Ash, Coke, Coking Coal, Rapeseed Oil, Pulp, Logs, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Rubber, Styrene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping (European Line) [1] Core Views - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. Central Huijin's support provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment and use the futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and industrial support drive the prices of some metals and other commodities, while supply - demand fundamentals and macro factors also affect different sectors [1]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - The market adjustment provides an opportunity to layout for the index's rise next year. Traders can establish long positions during the adjustment and use the futures' discount structure [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's warning on interest - rate risks suppresses short - term upward movement [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and industrial support, the price is strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: With positive macro sentiment and limited industrial drive, the price rebounds [1]. - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's internal differences cause macro sentiment to fluctuate. The domestic situation has improved slightly, but the oversupply pattern remains, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations improve the macro sentiment. Indonesia restricts nickel - related projects, and with production cuts in intermediate products, the price is expected to recover in the short term. The long - term surplus pattern remains [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations improve the sentiment. The price of raw material nickel - iron is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price rebounds slightly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's differences cause macro sentiment to be unstable. Supply has not recovered, and the price is strong. There is demand pressure, and the long - term trend is bullish [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The probability of a December interest - rate cut is high, but geopolitical tensions may ease, and the number of unemployment - benefit applicants has decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly cutting production [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: The industrial off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is loose. The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the price has limited upward space. Traders can participate in virtual value accumulation strategies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good. The direct demand is okay, but the supply is high, and the inventory is increasing, so the price rebound is limited [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term production profit is poor, but the cost support is strong. The supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the price rebound is limited [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation provides support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment drives strong price fluctuations [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The price increase faces resistance, and it generally follows the glass market [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. The downstream is expected to start restocking around mid - December. Unilateral trading should be short - term, and long - term investment needs further observation [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production in the origin and reduced exports. Domestic purchases are large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor refutation of the US delaying the reduction of incentives for imported bio - fuel raw materials creates a bullish expectation difference, supporting the price of US soybeans and soybean oil. The domestic basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, but foreign capital's long - position trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong bumper - harvest expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up is low, but there is a rigid restocking demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - **Bean粕**: The short - term supply is tight, and the spot price is firm. The market should pay attention to farmers' selling rhythm. The M05 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - **Pulp**: Old warehouse receipts are being cancelled, and new ones are being registered. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the price is oscillating in the short term [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamental situation is weak, but it has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The current spot price is stable, demand provides support, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It generally follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1]. - **Asphalt**: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of raw - material crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is high [1]. - **Rubber**: The price of butadiene provides limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a bullish expectation. High inventory restricts price increases, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in production capacity [1]. - **Short Fiber**: It closely follows the cost trend [1]. - **Styrene**: The export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - dumping and cost [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants have delayed production, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - month contracts [1]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical and tariff situation has eased, and the market is expected to be in a state of supply - demand balance. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [1]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose, and the price increase is less than expected [1].

| | | | | 国留期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 农产品研究中心一段 | 財） 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | 2025/ 127 | | | 地区 | 2025/11/26 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水(修改后) | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 11. 35 | 0. 01 | 0 - 12 | -190 | 270 | | | 湖南 | 11.1628 | -0. 25 | 100 | -540 > | 10 | | | 湖北 | 11.06 | -0.08 | 0 | -480 | +0180 | | | 安徽 | 11. 35 | -0.11 | 200 | -390 | 150 | | | 江西 | 11. 04 | -0.2 | 6100 | -600 | 60 | | | 山西 | 11.04 | -0. 06 | -100 | -400 | 200 | | | 山东 | 11. 37 | -0.14 | 200 | -370 | 12 ...

国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 官 方 网 线 型 www.itf.com.cn 00-8888-598 | | | | | | 油脂数据日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | | 国贸期货出品 | | 2025/11/27 | | | | 农产品中心 | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | 期货从业证号 | 176 投资咨询证号 | | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号_ 30 陈凡生 | | | | | F03117830 | Z0022681 | | | | 24度棕櫚油 2025/11/26 | | 2025/11/25 | 一口价变动 | | | | | | | | | | | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 天津 8480 | | 8560 | -80 | 5000 | | | | | | 8360 张家港 | | 8440 | -80 | 4000 | | | | | | 黄浦 8290 | | 8370 B | -80 | 3000 | ...

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is titled "Sugar Data Daily" by ITG Guomao Futures [3] - The report date is November 27, 2025 [4] - The analyst is Xie Wei with futures qualification number F03087820 and investment consulting number Z0019508 [4] Group 2: Market Data Domestic Sugar Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the price on November 26, 2025, was 5615 yuan, with no change, and the basis to 2601 was 236, up 8 [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price was 5800 yuan, with no change, and the basis to 2601 was 321, up 8 [4] - SR01 price was 5379 yuan, down 8; SR05 price was 5309 yuan, down 16; SR01 - 05 spread was 70, up 8 [4] International Market - The exchange rate of RMB to USD was 7.1018, down 0.0166; the exchange rate of Brazilian Real to RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of Indian Rupee to RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - ICE raw sugar主力 price was 14.9, unchanged; London white sugar主力 price was 573, up 3; Brent crude oil主力 price was 61.9, unchanged [4] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting pressure on raw sugar prices to decline. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year - on - year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] Group 4: Other Data - The domestic sugar industrial inventory and Brazilian sugar out - of - quota import profit data are presented, with the import profit at 2000 [4] - Graphs show historical data of Liuzhou - 01 basis and Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 month spread [5]

1. 26日玻璃偏强,而纯碱震荡。 2. 玻璃方面,近期资金博弈剧烈,价格大幅波动。基本面上供给整体持 稳。淡季来临,整体终端需求保有韧性,库存并未大幅累积。当前玻璃佔 值并不高。同时煤炭价格偏强,成本有支撑。中期供给过剩格局延续,价 格上行阻力大。 行情分析 3、纯碱更多跟随玻璃,但供需相对一般,价格承压。 以区间震荡思路为主。 交易策略 细做生存 0000 250 200 8000 60000 100 2000 = 2024 = 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客, 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。〔 ITC国贸期货 TEL 3500 FE 国贸期货有限公i 流的衍生品综合服务商 入 期 市 市 官 方 网 站 需 有 线 HA 谨 风 www.itf ...