投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 中东地缘局势升温，国际油价延续上涨势头 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:中东地缘局势升温，国际油价延续上涨势头 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 合成胶情绪带动，天胶顺势跟随上涨 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：目前国内产区停割，暂无原料分析。（2）泰国产区：泰国北部橡胶树开始落叶，进入割胶尾声。泰东北部预计割胶至二月初附近，工厂 | | 供给 | 偏多 | 日收胶量出现缩减趋势。周期内，海外需求及国内加仓情绪转弱，泰国原料价格呈现下跌趋势，但底部空间有 限。（3）越南产区：本周本周越南产区天气 | | | | 情况尚可，受季节性因素影响，整体胶水产量较旺产季下降明显，原料胶水干含 同步下滑，预计本月底将陆续停割，橡胶加工厂逐渐进入囤货储备阶段， | | | | 采购积极性维持高位，原料价格易涨 难跌。 | | | | （1）截至上周中国全钢胎样本 企业产能利用率为62.53% ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 • 上周国债期货市场呈现震荡上行的态势，超长期品种表现尤为突出。周初市场分化明显，30年期国债期货表现疲软，但随后三个交易日逐渐走强，至周五各期限 合约全线收涨。配置需求与外资流入是推动本周债市走强的主要逻辑。在优质资产欠配的背景下，银行、保险等机构对长端利率债的配置需求持续存在。特别是 保险机构"开门红"分红险销售亮眼，带动了拉长久期的需求。与此同时，境外避险资金的流入提供了额外支撑。在全球金融市场波动加大的环境下，人民币资 产避险属性凸显，部分外资机构将中国国债视为全球债市的"避风港"。尽管海外主要经济体国债收益率有所反弹，但中国债市受益于"利率西升东落"的格局， 利率中枢趋于稳定。1月22日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜发表讲话，表明2026年央行将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。在总量政策上，将灵活高效运用降准、降 息等多种货币政策工具，以保持流动性合理充裕，并明确指出"今年降准降息还有一定的空间"。此外，讲话还强调会继续维护金融市场平稳运行，并提及将加 强债券市场等监督管理。1月 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 评 | 逻辑: 论 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/1/26 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCEI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 業 | 现值 | 1458 | 1209 | 2084 | 1305 | 2896 | 1595 | | | 前值 | 1574 | 1210 | 2194 | 1323 | 3163 | 1676 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -7.39% | -0.09% | -5.01% | -1.36% | -8.44% | -4.83% | | P 11 | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 避险升温和美元走弱，金银强劲上涨 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-1-26 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周黄金持续上涨逼近5000美元关口，白银震荡后再度加速上行，历史上首次破 百。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）虽然特朗普TACO收回对欧洲8国的关税威胁、明 确不会武力夺岛一度引发贵金属市场扰动，但格陵兰岛危机并未解除，欧洲部分基金称 将抛售美债和减少美股投资，特朗普威胁若欧洲抛售美债等资产将面临大规模报复、并 表示美国将取得格陵兰岛美军基地所在区域"主权"，加剧了市场的担忧；与此同时， 美国宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措施、外媒报道美国正调集重兵前往伊朗、特朗普政 府被指正考虑推动古巴政权更迭、美加政治关系紧张等，地缘政治风险的不断扩散、发 酵，导致市场避险情绪急剧升温，提振贵金属价格大幅走强。（2）格陵兰岛危机外溢的 地缘主权风险和美联储独立性的削弱，市场正 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - PX market's strength leads the rise of chemical products, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, and polyester leads the entire chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and existing plants need to maintain high loads to match the polyester growth. Indian PTA is operating at full capacity, and a new project has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand. Some PX plants in China are under maintenance, and there are planned shutdowns in the Middle East. The PX - mixed xylene spread remains at about $150, and the PX - naphtha spread continues to widen, prompting refineries to favor aromatics extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand declines, the production cut of polyester factories has limited negative feedback on PTA, bottle - chip profits expand, and short - fiber profits decline [2]. Group 3: Data Summary Price and Price Difference - PTA spot price rose from 5155 to 5285, an increase of 130; MEG domestic price rose from 3660 to 3798, an increase of 138; PTA closing price rose from 5298 to 5448, an increase of 150; MEG closing price rose from 3847 to 3997, an increase of 150; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price rose from 6570 to 6675, an increase of 105; short - fiber basis increased from 10 to 12, an increase of 2; 3 - 4 spread decreased from 48 to 50, a decrease of 2; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1320 to 1425, an increase of 105; East China water - bottle chip price rose from 6222 to 6391, an increase of 169; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price rose from 6222 to 6391, an increase of 169; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price rose from 6322 to 6491, an increase of 169; outer - market water - bottle chip price rose from 825 to 840, an increase of 15; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 588 to 600, an increase of 12; T32S pure - polyester yarn price rose from 10550 to 10600, an increase of 50; T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3980 to 3925, a decrease of 55; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price rose from 16700 to 16750, an increase of 50; cotton 328 price rose from 15520 to 15630, an increase of 110; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1478 to 1416, a decrease of 61; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price rose from 7150 to 7300, an increase of 150; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price rose from 7760 to 7895, an increase of 135 [2]. Production and Sales, Operating Rate - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, an increase of 2.07%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 118.00% to 83.00%, a decrease of 35.00%; polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, an increase of 0.32%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a decrease of 0.63% [2][3]. Cash Flow - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 316 to 309, a decrease of 7 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Despite policy cooling, market liquidity remains abundant, and the speculation sentiment for small and medium - cap stocks is still strong. The regulatory orientation balances short - term market rhythm guidance and long - term stable growth, and short - term fluctuations are not expected to change the medium - to - long - term upward trend of stock indices [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - **Interest Rate Changes**: DROO1 closed at 1.40 with a - 1.88bp change, DR007 at 1.49 with a - 1.39bp change, GC001 at 1.29 with a - 24.00bp change, GC007 at 1.55 with a - 0.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [4] - **Bond Yield Changes**: 1 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.28 with a - 0.70bp change, 5 - year at 1.60 with a - 1.01bp change, 10 - year at 1.83 with a - 0.44bp change, and 10 - year US Treasury bond at 4.24 with a - 2.00bp change [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. With 951.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 229.5 billion yuan. On Friday, 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured, and the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of MLF operations. This week, 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Stock Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4702 with a - 0.45% change, the SSE 50 at 3032 with a - 0.69% change, the CSI 500 at 8590 with a 2.42% change, and the CSI 1000 at 8471 with a 1.94% change. Their corresponding futures contracts also had respective price changes [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all saw increases in trading volume and open interest. For example, IF trading volume increased by 22.5% to 140482, and its open interest increased by 3.5% to 299730 [6] - **Last Week's Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.62% to 4702.5, the SSE 50 fell 1.54% to 3032.2, the CSI 500 rose 4.34% to 8590.2, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.89% to 8470.7. In the Shenwan primary industry index, building materials (9.2%), steel (7.3%), basic chemicals (7.3%), non - ferrous metals (6%), and real estate (5.2%) led the gains, while banks (- 2.7%), communications (- 2.1%), non - bank finance (- 1.5%), food and beverages (- 1.4%), and pharmaceutical biology (- 0.4%) led the losses. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 666.12 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - **ETF Fund Flows**: From January 12th to January 21st, various broad - based ETFs had significant outflows. The CSI 300 theme ETF had a net outflow of over 220 billion yuan, the CSI 1000 theme ETF had a net outflow of over 57 billion yuan, the SSE 50 and STAR 50 theme ETFs both had net outflows of over 40 billion yuan, and the ChiNext Index and CSI 500 theme ETFs also had net outflows of over 25 billion yuan [7] 3.3 Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract had a - 0.45% premium/discount, the next - month contract - 0.96%, the current - quarter contract 0.80%, and the next - quarter contract 1.83% [8] - **IH Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract had a - 0.10% premium/discount, the next - month contract - 1.25%, the current - quarter contract - 0.32%, and the next - quarter contract 1.34% [8] - **IC Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract had a - 10.79% premium/discount, the next - month contract - 5.35%, the current - quarter contract 0.33%, and the next - quarter contract 1.79% [8] - **IM Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract had a - 10.12% premium/discount, the next - month contract - 3.66%, the current - quarter contract 3.11%, and the next - quarter contract 4.60% [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for LPG is "short - term bullish", but it is recommended that investors mainly short at high levels [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the fermentation of cold snaps and geopolitical conflicts drives the upward movement of PG, but the actual increase in the futures market is limited. Coupled with a significant decline in the PDH operating rate and a notable weakening of chemical demand, it is advisable for investors to short at high levels [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures rebounded after a decline, with a fluctuation range of 4,030 - 4,220 yuan/ton. International crude oil and LPG prices continued to rise, but the domestic market supply kept increasing. Although the volume of imported ships decreased, some terminals sold resources. Downstream resistance to high prices led to a decline in market prices. Additionally, domestic chemical demand decreased, and combustion demand was mediocre, resulting in a lack of market confidence and a downward shift in the overall trading center [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors of LPG 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 528,500 tons (a 2.13% change), including 228,200 tons of civil gas (a 5.80% change), 186,400 tons of industrial gas (a - 1.53% change), and 164,200 tons of ether - post C4 (a - 1.74% change). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 490,000 tons (a - 9.83% change). A refinery in the southwest and a local refinery in Shandong resumed supply, and some enterprises reduced self - use, leading to an increase in supply. There were no news of start - up or shutdown this week, but the increment would continue to affect supply, and the supply might increase [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In winter, heating demand remained stable, and the combustion demand for LPG gradually improved, reaching a relatively high level. Before the Spring Festival, the load of PDH plants gradually decreased, and the plant profit loss was repaired. The propane procurement demand of port chemical enterprises was relatively rigid, but there were news of plant production cuts recently, and the expected operating rate would gradually decline, causing the propane chemical demand to fall. The MTBE profit was in a loss state, the overseas olefin blending oil demand slowed down, the domestic export window closed, most orders had been executed, and the high - operating rate of refineries was difficult to maintain, thus suppressing the price trend of civil gas [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 165,200 tons (a 5.42% change), and the port inventory was 1,996,800 tons (a - 1.53% change). Affected by widespread snow and increased supply, some local manufacturers had difficulty in shipping, leading to an increase in the refinery storage capacity ratio. The number of arriving ships at the port decreased, remaining at a low level, and the continuous shortage of imported resources meant that the terminals mainly consumed inventory. With the decline in chemical demand and limited arriving ships, the terminal shipping volume was small, and some terminals stopped shipping, so the demand showed a narrowing trend. With a low arrival volume, the port inventory continued to decline this period [4]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 317.80 yuan/ton in East China, 715.40 yuan/ton in South China, and 359.40 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 5,898 lots, with no change, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 62.25%, 58.15%, and 37.41% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 438.18 yuan/ton, - 203 yuan/ton respectively [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.29 (a 0.19% change), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was - 278 yuan/ton (a 14.88% change). In the fourth quarter, gas prices were firm, while crude oil showed a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread had a weakening trend [4]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - The EIA crude oil inventory in the US last week increased by 3.6 million barrels more than expected, and the IEA maintained its expectation of a loose crude oil supply in 2026. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel would be reorganized. The news of the US's strike against Iran fermented again, and the geopolitical situations in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine were tense. The cold snap caused a 60% surge in natural gas prices, leading to a short - term jump in oil and gas prices. Events such as the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers fermented again, causing market panic about geopolitics [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Short at high levels. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, long SC and short PG, long PP and short PG to make profits from PDH [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - The overall black market is in a range - bound oscillation, with no strong expectations for market drivers and valuations [3]. - The fundamentals of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon continue to be under pressure, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline [4]. - The coking coal and coke sector oscillates, with insufficient spot - driven factors, and it is advisable to cash in on the spot and short on the futures after a rally [5]. - Iron ore is in a short - term oscillatingly strong pattern, but there is obvious upward pressure in the medium and long term [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market price of steel is stable, and the trading enthusiasm is average. The futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. Seasonal factors lead to a weakening of demand, and the support for the market is limited [3]. - Steel mills have a willingness to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. The willingness of traders to conduct open - position winter storage is not strong, and it is more suitable to participate through basis trading [3]. - The certainty of the increase in hot metal production increases, and there is support at low prices. The basis of hot - rolled coils is favorable for spot - futures arbitrage, and the spot - futures positive arbitrage of hot - rolled coils can still be rolled [3][7]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have rebounded with market sentiment, and there are occasional supply - side disturbance rumors [4]. - The demand is poor, and the overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply is high, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains [4]. - Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the expectations are prone to fluctuations, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline. Industrial customers are advised to hedge at high prices [4][7]. Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has been shelved, the downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The price of coking coal has a slight increase, but the market transaction is still weak [5]. - The futures of coking coal and coke oscillate weakly. In the off - season, the industrial data is weak, and there is neither excessive spot pressure nor strong upward or downward drivers [5]. - The supply of coal mines has continued to recover, and the inventory pressure is not large. However, after the first - round coke price increase was shelved, the market sentiment has weakened. It is advisable to cash in on the spot at high prices before the Spring Festival and wait for short - selling opportunities on the futures after a rally [5][7]. Iron Ore - The in - plant inventory of steel mills is at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of steel mill复产 in February and pre - Spring Festival restocking support the short - term high price of iron ore [6][9]. - After the restocking expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will become the root cause of the weakening of iron ore prices. It is recommended that short - term investors consider going long at low prices, and long - term investors short at pressure levels [6][9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - On January 23, platinum and palladium prices rose overall, with platinum outperforming palladium. The PT2606 contract closed up 10.39% to 685.9 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 3.98% to 497.95 yuan/gram [6]. - Geopolitical risks are intensifying, increasing market risk - aversion demand. The weakening of the US dollar index also supports platinum and palladium prices. Fundamentally, there are no significant changes. High overseas platinum spot lease rates indicate its shortage, but the US decision to postpone import tariffs on key minerals may limit their upside potential [6]. - In the short - term, platinum and palladium prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations. In the long - term, platinum has a supply - demand gap while palladium tends to have a loose supply. The strategy suggests unilateral bottom - fishing for platinum or the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Prices - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 685.9 yuan/gram, up 8.21% from the previous value [4]. - Spot platinum (99.95%): 672.5 yuan/gram, up 8.73% [4]. - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - 13.4 yuan/gram, down 12.70% [4]. - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 497.95 yuan/gram, up 2.94% [4]. - Spot palladium (99.95%): 483.5 yuan/gram, up 4.09% [4]. - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - 14.45 yuan/gram, down 24.94% [4]. International Prices - London spot platinum: 2656.3 dollars/ounce, up 7.60% [4]. - London spot palladium: 1904.886 dollars/ounce, up 2.77% [4]. - NYMEX platinum: 2654 dollars/ounce, up 7.50% [4]. - NYMEX palladium: 1954.5 dollars/ounce, up 3.77% [4]. Internal - External 15 - Point Spread - Dollar/yuan central parity rate: 6.9929, down 0.13% [4]. - Spread between Guangdong platinum and London platinum: 11.06 yuan/gram, up 89.14% [4]. - Spread between Guangdong platinum and NYMEX platinum: 11.64 yuan/gram, up 100.41% [4]. - Spread between Guangdong palladium and London palladium: 12.23 yuan/gram, up 14.49% [5]. - Spread between Guangdong palladium and NYMEX palladium: 1.40 yuan/gram, down 69.70% [5]. Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3774, up 0.0672 [5]. - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3945, up 0.0626 [5]. Inventory - NYMEX platinum inventory: 662,888 troy ounces, unchanged [5]. - NYMEX palladium inventory: 216,266 troy ounces, unchanged [5]. Positions - NYMEX total platinum position: 78,337, up 0.86% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long position in platinum: 15,124, down 14.04% [5]. - NYMEX total palladium position: 19,167, down 1.62% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long position in palladium: 1,225, down 27.51% [5].