Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - A-shares lack a clear upward trend due to a relatively vacuum macro environment, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be digested through index fluctuations, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Market sentiment is volatile, leading to price fluctuations in various commodities such as metals, energy, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Industry Stock Index - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for further upward movement [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks limit the upside [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate due to repeated market sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: High - level fluctuations are expected due to limited industrial driving forces and repeated macro sentiment [1]. - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Prices will fluctuate around the cost line, and attention should be paid to ore prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to short - term repeated macro sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals, but short - term mine premiums are stable. With planned production cuts in Indonesian intermediate products and slightly improved macro conditions, nickel prices have a short - term repair expectation. The medium - to - long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and social inventories are increasing. Steel mill production cuts in November are limited. Futures prices will fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. Consider light - position participation in long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategies and look for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Tin**: Short - term supply has not recovered, and unexpected risks have increased, leading to stronger prices. However, due to existing demand pressure, caution is needed when chasing high prices. The medium - to - long - term outlook is positive, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1]. Precious Metals - With the probability of a December interest rate cut rising again and the news of the Ukraine - Russia peace agreement, precious metals are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. New Energy - related Commodities - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is recovering, while southwest production is weaker than in previous years. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly reducing production. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and terminal installation is increasing in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are fluctuating, and market sentiment has faded due to the long - awaited non - implementation of anti - involution policies [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel Products - **Rebar**: Although the valuation is low, the price increase is limited due to the off - season and a short - term macro vacuum. Consider participating in the virtual value accumulation strategy [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract has upward potential. The basis is acceptable, and consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage or using option strategies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Direct demand is okay with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. Coking Products - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Adopt a short - term strategy for unilateral trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash out hedging short positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil**: The rumor of the US delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel raw material subsidies is refuted, which is bullish for US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic high - pressure crushing may lead to a stable - to - weak basis, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of new cotton, but there is no clear upward driver. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply is tight, leading to a price rebound. However, selling pressure is postponed, so be cautious about being bullish and pay attention to farmers' selling and logistics [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US. If there are no significant weather problems, the market will gradually turn to trading the South American new - crop harvest pressure from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. - **Pulp**: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. Demand recovery needs to be verified, and prices will fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation is weak but has been priced in. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Pig**: Spot prices are stable, but there is still room for capacity release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US is increasing sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil in the short - term, with the probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan construction demand being falsified, and sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: Raw material cost support is strong, the basis is low, and intermediate inventories may increase [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price of butadiene has limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a positive outlook. However, high inventory restricts price increases, and the synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene prices support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Follows the decline of crude oil prices, with slightly stronger cost support from rising coal prices, but new device production expectations suppress price increases [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Follows cost fluctuations closely [1]. - **Styrene**: Asian benzene prices are weak, and US pure benzene prices are rising. The price will fluctuate [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, with cost - end support [1]. - **PP**: High supply pressure, weak downstream demand improvement, and strong cost support [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weakening, and orders are poor [1]. - **Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: There are issues such as delivery schedules, overhauls, and inventory pressures. The absolute price is low, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **PG**: Geopolitical and tariff relations are easing, and the market is in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices and the decline of far - month spreads [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: December price increases are lower than expected, and the peak - season price increase expectation has been priced in early. The monthly shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].

80% 0.2 70% 60% 0.15 50% 0.1 40% 30% 0.05 20% 0 10% 2025-07-10 2025-11-10 2025-08-10 2025-09-10 2025-10-10 0% HV5 HV20 HV60 5日 20日 40日 60日 120日 波动率微笑曲线 上证50下月平值隐波 0.28 2512 2511 0.26 0.24 0000000000円円円円円11円 NW$010×4000×100×400 0.22 0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 2325 2475 2400 2600 沪深300波动率分析 沪深300历史波动率 历史波动率锥 0.25 最小值 ·30%分位值 10%分位值 最大值 当前值 90%分位值 ·60%分位值 0.2 100% 90% 0.15 80% 70% 0.1 60% 50% 0.05 40% 30% 20% 0 10% 2025-07-10 2025-09-10 2025-10-10 2025-11-10 2025-08-10 0% HV5 - HV20 HV60 5日 20日 40日 60日 120日 波 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/11/26 | 指标 | | 11月25日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 大连 | 77 | -2 | 1600 | ここここ - 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | == ----- 23/24 | ===== 20/21 - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | | 天津 | 47 | -2 | 1200 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -13 | -2 | 100 | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | -13 | -2 | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | -400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 1 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: November 26, 2025 [5] - Data Sources: Clarksons, Wind [5] Group 2: Freight Index Current and Previous Values - Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) current value: 1394, previous value: 1451, change: -3.98% [5] - China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) current value: 1123, previous value: 1094, change: 2.63% [5] - SCFI - West Coast of the United States current value: 1645, previous value: 1823, change: -9.76% [5] - SCFIS - West Coast of the United States current value: 1107, previous value: 1238, change: -10.58% [5] - SCFI - East Coast of the United States current value: 2384, previous value: 2600, change: -8.31% [5] - SCFI - Northwest Europe current value: 1367, previous value: 1417, change: -3.53% [5] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe current value: 1357, previous value: 1504, change: -9.77% [5] - SCFI - Mediterranean current value: 2055, previous value: 2029, change: 1.28% [5] Contract Information - Contract EC2506 current value: 1338.0, previous value: 1358.2, change: -1.49% [5] - Contract EC2608 current value: 1464.0, previous value: 1488.1, change: -1.62% [5] - Contract EC2610 current value: 1108.0, previous value: 1110.0, change: -0.18% [5] - Contract EC2512 current value: 1650.0, previous value: 1779.7, change: -7.29% [5] - Contract EC2602 current value: 1453.5, previous value: 1568.6, change: -7.34% [5] - Contract EC2604 current value: 1126.4, previous value: 1142.1, change: -1.37% [5] Position and Spread - EC2606 position current value: 1629, previous value: 1534, change: 95 [5] - EC2608 position current value: 1399, previous value: 1325, change: 74 [5] - EC2610 position current value: 2556, previous value: 2597, change: -41 [5] - EC2512 position current value: 6454, previous value: 6862, change: -408 [5] - EC2602 position current value: 48279, previous value: 43333, change: 4946 [5] - EC2604 position current value: 17016, previous value: 16096, change: 920 [5] - 12 - 02 spread current value: 196.5, previous value: 211.1, change: -14.6 [5] - 12 - 04 spread current value: 523.6, previous value: 637.6, change: -114.0 [5] - 02 - 04 spread current value: 327.1, previous value: 426.5, change: -99.4 [5] Group 3: Market News - The last trading Monday in February 2026 for container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 is February 9 [6] - Iran carried out a maritime attack on a suspicious target approaching Israel in the Gulf of Oman [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1 is actually passing through the Red Sea/Suez Canal directly instead of going around the Cape of Good Hope as scheduled [6] Group 4: EC Market Analysis Market Summary - The market is in a downward trend, mainly due to some airlines reducing December prices [7] Spot Prices - In early December, MSK quoted 2500, HPL quoted 2350, 00CL quoted 2300, CMA quoted 3550, EM3 quoted 3100, ONE quoted 2450, and MSC quoted 2450 [7] Market Logic - December freight rate implementation: If leading shipping companies like Maersk maintain quotes between 2400 - 2600 dollars/FEU and there is no large - scale overbooking, the EC near - month contract will continue to be under pressure [7] - January price increase letter implementation: Shipping companies plan to raise prices again in January, but if cargo volume remains weak or shipping company quotes diverge more, the price increase will be harder to implement, limiting the upside of the 02 contract [7] - Seasonal cargo volume changes: December下旬 to January上旬 is the traditional peak season. If there is overbooking, it may briefly boost freight rates [7] Outlook - Short - term strategy is to wait and see, focusing on December freight rate implementation and January price increase letter effectiveness [7] - If December freight rates are implemented at 80% of the quote, the EC2602 contract may test the 1500 - 1700 point range; if price support is successful, the 02 contract may rise to 1800 - 1900 points [7] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the 12 - contract is gradually losing trading value [8]

| | | | | | | | EATH FANTER FOR | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 6000 | | ...

3）中长期观点。中长期来看。美联储仍处于降息周期、全球地缘不确定性持续、美国债务不可持续和云国博弈加剧将长期增加美元信用网险，全球央行购金延续 等,黄金中长期重心大概率继续上移,建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 体拥备中的信息均源于公天可获得的谈外，国资策货力求准确可靠。但不对上述精急的准确性及完整性以任何保证、本者告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别数资者接持的货资目标、购多优规或需要，投资 者需自行判随本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据此投资。责任章负。本报告仅同能定客户推进、未经国贸繁货领数许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为中应成"国贸联络的景观 声明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 the Sept 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows that Chile's Arauco company's October quotes for coniferous pulp Silver Star decreased by $20/ton, while quotes for broadleaf pulp Star remained flat, and quotes for natural pulp Venus also remained flat. The demand side indicates that recent price - increase letters for pulp - made paper have been issued, with only white cardboard having good implementation results, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the second batch of price - increase letters for offset paper. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory at China's mainstream pulp ports was 2173000 tons, a 3.0% increase from the previous period, showing a continuous two - week inventory accumulation [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5212 yuan/ton, down 0.15% day - on - day and 3.62% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4724 yuan/ton, up 0.25% day - on - day and down 3.55% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5272 yuan/ton, down 0.11% day - on - day and 2.55% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.70% week - on - week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5170 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 4.26% week - on - week; the price of broadleaf pulp Golden Needle was 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [6]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: The October quote for Chile's Silver Star was $680/ton, down $20/ton; the quote for Star was $540/ton, unchanged; the quote for Venus was $590/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chile's Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton, down 2.83% month - on - month; the import cost of Chile's Venus was 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 691000 tons (unchanged month - on - month), and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1318000 tons, down 2.80% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in the period from November 6 to November 20, 2025 [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 2173000 tons, up 63000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% increase; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 209000 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated during the period from November 6 to November 20, 2025 [6]. 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 446, with a quantile level of 0.946; the Silver Star basis was 676, with a quantile level of 0.895 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 159, with a quantile level of 0.378; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.705 [6].

利润估算 种类 88224 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 N # 利 外购锂辉石精矿利润 2549 >EE 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 90365 外购锂云母精矿利润 -1850 、行业协会将建议设成本红线规范报价磷酸铁锂行业推进反内卷。由于我回磷酸铁锂行业陷入连续多年整体性亏损的窘境，产业无序竞争 账价内卷现象威肋全行业生存根基与持续发展大局，中国化学与物理电源行业协会将发布《关于参考磷酸铁锂成本指数及规范行业发展的通 知》。该《通知》建议，企业应将协会11月18日披露的行业平均成本区间作为报价的重要参考，不要突破成本红线开展低价倾销。记者? 中国化学与物理电源行业协会将自本月起，每月定期披露行业平均成本区间,为企业报价提供权威监管依据。同时，协会建议企业雇 息报送义务,企业每月定期向协会如实、完整提交产能、产量、库存等经营数据,作为行业资源配等重要参考依据。 SMM,本周碳酸锂增产585吨,去库2052吨 H a 价格运行到10万元后，市场核心关注需求旺季的延续性和江西矿端的复产节奏。上周受到去库幅度收窄和矿端复产消息，部分获利盘了结离 引发市场回调。目前，终端需求仍维持旺盛，由于前期加速上涨，市场积累了大量获利盘 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production, driven by high gasoline profit margins and low pure benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester开工 remains stable, and domestic polyester exports are optimistic. The downstream weaving industry is performing well, and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price, and new device production is putting pressure on the price. Coal prices have risen, but the cost support for ethylene glycol is not strong. The Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price increased from 447.9 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/24 to 448.6 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/25, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Price decreased from 1425.1 yuan/ton to 1396.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 29.09 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4378 to 1.4282, a change of - 0.0096 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Price remained at 826, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 264 to 263, a change of - 1 [2]. - **PTA**: The main futures price decreased from 4680 yuan/ton to 4656 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton; the spot price remained at 4630 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee increased from 212.0 yuan/ton to 213.4 yuan/ton, a change of 1.3 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee decreased from 262.0 yuan/ton to 239.4 yuan/ton, a change of - 22.7 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from (49) to (43), a change of 6.0; the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 117828 to 118438, a change of 610 [2]. - **MEG**: The main futures price decreased from 3884 yuan/ton to 3873 yuan/ton, a change of - 11.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (144.73) to (144.92), a change of - 0.2; the MEG domestic price increased from 3890 to 3920, a change of 30.0; the main basis decreased from 35 to 33, a change of - 2.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate decreased from 87.39% to 86.48%, a change of - 0.91% [2]. - **PTA**: The start - up rate increased from 72.11% to 73.44%, a change of 1.33% [2]. - **MEG**: The start - up rate increased from 60.33% to 61.48%, a change of 1.15% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load remained at 89.19%, a change of 0.00% [2]. 3. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Fibers - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6545 to 6500, a change of - 45.0; POY cash flow decreased from 33 to (22), a change of - 55.0; FDY150D/96F price decreased from 6755 to 6755, a change of - 70.0; FDY cash flow decreased from (187) to (267), a change of - 80.0; DTY150D/48F price decreased from 7865 to 7855, a change of - 10.0; DTY cash flow decreased from 153 to 133, a change of - 20.0; the filament sales rate increased from 43% to 96%, a change of 53% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple price increased from 6350 to 6385, a change of 35; the staple fiber cash flow increased from 188 to 213, a change of 25.0; the staple fiber sales rate increased from 65% to 79%, a change of 14% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The semi - bright chip price increased from 5545 to 5550, a change of 5.0; the chip cash flow decreased from (67) to (72), a change of - 5.0; the chip sales rate increased from 60% to 65%, a change of 5% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products soon. The device was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2]

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 (%) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 动(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4490 | 0.95 | IF当月 | 4473 | 0.9 | | 上证50 | 2968 | 0.60 | IH当月 | 2959 | 0.5 | | 中证500 | ୧୦રેર | 1.25 | IC当月 | 6900 | 1.1 | | 中证1000 | 7250 | 1.31 | IM当月 | 7172 | 1.1 | | IF成交量 | 108933 | -4.2 | IF持仓量 | 264574 | -1.5 | | IH成交量 | 43866 | -2.0 | IH持仓量 | 88482 | -1.1 | | IC成交量 | 134717 | 2.1 | IC持仓量 | 258131 | 2.1 | | IM成交量 | 213192 | -4.8 | IM持仓量 | 367936 | -2.5 | 回顾:昨日收盘,沪深300上涨0.95%至4490.4; ...