Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch that could push up prices, but in the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged. The increase in overall supply is the main factor suppressing futures prices. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the independent energy storage economy is emerging due to the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of spot price differences, with strong installation demand indicated by increased tender volumes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 73,550 yuan/ton with no change, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,300 yuan/ton with no change. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Futures prices of various lithium carbonate contracts are as follows: Li2510 closed at 72,700 yuan/ton with a - 0.47% change; Li2511 at 72,740 yuan/ton with a - 1.3% change; Li2512 at 72,960 yuan/ton with a - 1.11% change; Li2601 at 72,900 yuan/ton with a - 1% change; Li2602 at 72,900 yuan/ton with a - 0.57% change [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is priced at 839 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. Lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,810 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. Phosphorus - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O:6% - 7%) is 6,050 yuan/ton, and (Li2O:7% - 8%) is 7,150 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640 yuan/ton. The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 153,100 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 124,400 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 130,450 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton. The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract product is 810 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton. The difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 220 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 160 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons. Smelter inventory (weekly, tons) data is not provided. Downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 59,765 tons, down 1,128 tons. Other inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,290 tons, down 2,150 tons. Registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) are 42,669 tons, up 290 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 1,590 yuan/ton. The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 77,139 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 6,648 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - Chinese researchers have solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. A research team has developed an anion regulation technology, and the relevant research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3]

钢材】单边观望。盘面套利重点观察01合约卷螺差是否给到150以下布局做多的机会。期现反套滚动 (焦煤焦炭】单边暂时观望 【焦煤焦炭】贸易纠纷再起,风险资产集体下挫 现货端,节假期间焦炭首轮提涨落地,市场传闻第二轮提涨原先计划10日提出,但最终推迟,港口贸易报价提前下跌,产 地练焦煤竞拍涨跌互现,港口贸易准一集炭排价1430(-10),炼焦煤价格指数1251.1(-0.5);蒙煤方面,节日期间由 于通关暂停,甘其毛都口岸库存下降明显,节后通关恢复至高位,市场成交氛围冷清,市场多保持观望,现甘其毛都口岸, 蒙5原煤1028(+16),蒙5精煤1285(-),河北唐山:蒙5精煤1422(-)。期货端,节后第一周仅两个交易日,商品市场 2 大起大落,节日期间表现强势的资产在节后首个交易日大幅上涨后,第二个交易日迎来了回调,至周五夜盘受中美贸易摩擦 升级影响,市场集体risk-off,权益、工业金属和能源急跌。基本面来看,节日期间钢材累库较多,终端需求表现依然较 弱,不过随着假期结束,需求也会快速恢复,具体情况还有待后续验证,炉料数据则表现较好,煤矿节日期间多有减产, 游库存消耗较快,碳元素总库存去化,表明供需依然偏紧 ...

纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年10月10日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年10月10日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5078 | -0.51% | -4. 44% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5520 | 0. 00% | -2. 30% | | | SP2511 | 4788 | -0. 33% | -5. 38% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5050 | 0. 00% | -2. 88% | | | SP2505 | 5136 | -0. 19% | -3.60% | | 阔叶浆等更 | 4250 | 0.00% | 0.71% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 700 | 720 | -2.78% | | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5884 | -2.75% | | (美元) | 日起受更 | 530 | 510 | 3. ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 本报告中的自慰以源于公开可获得的资格，国贸领发力求准审汇事。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整推出任何保证。本报告不勾成个人投资建议。也未分对个别投资者帮帮的投资信标，好多优发或需要，投资 免 责 者需需行判断本报告中的任何意见就是还否符合某特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。本报告们向使定客申能选，未经国贸联货资获评，任河引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为少应成定图贸段的授权 声明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 IC E KERS 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 DAVA | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily data of stock index options, including the performance of major indices, trading volume, open interest, and volatility analysis of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and China Securities 1000 [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.32% to 3933.97 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.73%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.18%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 2.93%, the Wind All - A rose 1.31%, the Wind A500 rose 1.56%, and the China Securities A500 rose 1.59%. A - shares traded 2.67 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 2.2 trillion yuan the previous day [4][5] - **Index Details**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 closed at 2319.23 with a turnover of 3020.5964 billion yuan and a trading volume of 1.06 billion; the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 closed at 8622.08 with a turnover of 4709.482 billion yuan and a trading volume of 347.68; the China Securities 1000 closed at 7648.0523 with a turnover of 5305.00 billion yuan and a trading volume of 303.49 [3] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, the call option trading volume was 6.84 million, the put option trading volume was 7.04 million, the call option open interest was 3.95 million, and the put option open interest was 3.09 million; for the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, the call option trading volume was 11.83 million, the put option trading volume was 17.90 million, the call option open interest was 19.00 million, and the put option open interest was 8.94 million; for the China Securities 1000, the call option trading volume was 30.05 million, the put option trading volume was 15.64 million, the call option open interest was 27.69 million, and the put option open interest was 14.41 million [3] - **PCR (Put - Call Ratio)**: The trading volume PCR for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was 0.78, the open interest PCR was 0.49; for the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, the trading volume PCR was 1.00, the open interest PCR was 8.96; for the China Securities 1000, the trading volume PCR was 0.92, the open interest PCR was 1.06 [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The report shows the historical volatility and volatility cone of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and China Securities 1000, including the minimum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, maximum, 90% quantile, 60% quantile, and current values [3][4] - **Volatility Smile Curve**: The report presents the next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curves of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and China Securities 1000 [3][4]

航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/10/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 现值 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | E Alle | | 1115 | 1087 | 1460 | 876 | 2385 | 971 | | 运 | 前值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 921 | 2557 | 1052 | | | 涨跌幅 | -6.97% | -2.93% | -10.76% | -4.89% | -6.73% | -7.70% | | ਵਿ | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | 现值 | 1046 | 1485 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 2025/10/10 | 指标 | | 10月9日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) ----- 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == | | == | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 101 61 | 9 -11 | 1600 1200 | ----- 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | | - 24/25 | | - 25/26 | | | 日照 | 11 | | 800 400 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | | -11 | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | -400 | | | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 04/24 | | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 11/27 | 12/28 | | | 东莞 | -9 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current economic operation is generally weak, and subsequent incremental policies may be further introduced. The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - For polysilicon, there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, they ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - For glass, the anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - For soda ash, it follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal, the 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For palm oil, Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - For soybean oil, China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - For rapeseed products, the ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - For raw sugar, the high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - For corn, without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - For soybean meal, the domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - For pulp, the current trading logic is about the trading of old needle - wood pulp warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the pressure on the futures market is high. It is advisable to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - For log futures, the fundamentals of logs are strong, the foreign - market quotation has risen, and the spot price has increased, so the log futures will be strong [1]. - For live pigs, the pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight has not decreased significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The overall outlook is bearish [1]. - For crude oil, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation has cooled down, and demand has entered the off - season, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For fuel oil, it has the same situation as crude oil, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, the geopolitical situation cooling down, and demand entering the off - season [1]. - For asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient [1]. - For natural rubber, there are many disturbances on the supply side, inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the RU warehouse receipts are significantly less than the same period in previous years, so it is bullish [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are continuously loose, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, downstream transactions have become dull, and high - level production and high inventory have not been the main factors for suppression [1]. - For PTA, the crude - oil price is weak, the PX market trading is dull, the Asian naphtha cracking is running stably, the price difference between PX and MX has dropped to $132, supporting the short - process profit of PX. Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotational maintenance, and domestic PTA production has declined [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East - China ports is still low, the port arrivals this week are still limited, the overseas ethylene - glycol import is expected to decline, and domestic plant commissioning has put continuous pressure on the ethylene - glycol price. After the holiday, as the peak season for polyester is coming to an end, polyester is expected to be weak [1]. - For short - fiber, short - fiber factory plants are gradually resuming operation. As the price falls, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts in the market has weakened [1]. - For styrene, the international crude - oil market is weak, the US benzene price is relatively low compared to the gasoline price, the economy of STDP is obviously weak, and the US export demand is still restricted by arbitrage. New domestic styrene plants have been put into operation, but the downstream polymer industry has stagnated [1]. - For lime, the export sentiment has eased slightly, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the upside space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - For DR357, the center of the crude - oil market price has been slightly adjusted downward, the maintenance intensity has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, so the price will fluctuate strongly [1]. - For PVC, the maintenance support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the market is returning to fundamentals, and there is large supply pressure due to less maintenance compared to the previous period, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the price will fluctuate weakly [1]. - For caustic soda, many alumina plants in Guangxi are planning to start production, there are unplanned maintenance increases in Shandong in October, the factory loads in South China and Zhejiang are difficult to increase in the short term, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts. The short - term futures price is bearish, and it is bullish in the medium term [1]. - For LPG, OPEC's production increase and high domestic crude - oil inventory are suppressing the upward momentum of LPG. The international CP and FEI prices have weakened, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, with the peak season not being prosperous [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, the price has gradually fallen to a low level, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound, it is gradually entering the contract - changing period, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - Silver: The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - Copper: The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - Aluminum: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - Alumina: The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Zinc: Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - Nickel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: It is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - Iron Ore: The anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - Glass: The anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - Soybean Oil: China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - Rapeseed Products: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - Raw Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - Pulp: The current trading logic is about the trading of

国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 2000 ---- 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 ------- 22/23 -------- 23/24 - - 24/25 800 1500 1000 500 600 0 -500 -1000 400 -1500 -2000 -2500 200 2017 ==2018 == 2020 =2016 · 0 2021 == 2023 == 2024 === 2024 === 2025 11月 10月 12月 2月 3月 5月 6月 9月 1月 4月 7月 8月 柳州-01基差 郑糖1-5月差 500 1000 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 -200 -400 -100 -600 -200 6月21日 7月21日 8月21日 9月21日 10月21日 11月21日 12月21日 5月21日 SR1701-SR1705 -SR1801-SR1805 -SR1901-SR1905 -SR2001-SR2005 SR2101-SR2105 -SR2201-SR2205 -SR ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 IIC国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/10/10 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/9/30 | 2025/10/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 479.7 | 471.0 | -8. 70 | 成交情况: PTA:国际原油价格较节前波动有限,虽然华东330万 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1108. 0 | 1161.2 | 53. 22 | 吨(设计产能,实际360万吨)PTA装置计划外降负荷 | | | | | | | 至5成左右,但消缺天数可能仅一周左右,对市场提振 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3178 | 1. 3393 | 0. 0214 | 效果有限。下游聚酯产销一般,需求不旺。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 804 | 8 ...