投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 IIC 国兴期 沪深300PCR走势 1.2 J 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 中证1000PCR走势 权教据日报 CI + m = 2025/7/2 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 行情回顾 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 收盘价 | | | 张肤帽(%) | | 成交额(亿元) | | 成交里(亿) | | | 上证50 2717. 7128 | | | 0. 21 | | 661. 44 | | 33.03 | | | 沪深300 3942. 762 | | | 0.17 | | 2360. 70 | | 128. 96 | | | 中证1000 6373. 7679 | | | 0. 28 | | 3343.02 | | 243. 54 | | | | | | | 中金所股指期权成交情况 | | | | | | 期权成交望 指数 | | 认购期权 | 山沽期权 | 日成交里 | 期权持仓里 | 认购期权 | 认沽期权 ...

| H 等 市 路 参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 短期来看,在情绪和流动性的驱动下偏强震荡的概率较高,后续 | | | 关注宏观增量信息对股指方向的指引。 | 资产带和弱经济利好情期。但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债) | | | | | 空间。 | 宏观金融 | 市场不确定性再起,金价企稳反弹。 | 看多 | 真金 | | | 宏观和商品属性或仍对银价有支撑。但基本面或仍会限制其空间 | 白银 | 近期市场风险偏好回升,叠加海外美铜及伦铜挤仓行情发酵,短 | | | | | 看头 | 국미 | 期铜价偏强。 | 近期市场情绪有所好转,叠加电解铝库存低位运行,铝价偏强运 | | | | TT. | 美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回归,商品价格上行,氧化。 | 氧化铝 | 看多 | | | | 铝短期偏强。 | 火烧云投产,预计9月底出锭,此外全球第五大炼厂罢工仅影响生 | | | | | | 产3天,对供应影响有限,短期锌受消息影响下跌。此外铜价大涨 | ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 碳酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 谢灵 投资咨询号: Z0015788 从业资格号: F3040017 2025/07/02 有色金属研究中心 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 数据来源:SMM,公开新闻整理 100000 锂化合物 平均价 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 61300 0 80000 4000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 59700 0 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 60000 碳酸锂2507 62980 0.16% 碳酸锂2508 62840 0. 1% 40000 碳酸锂2509 0. 16% 62780 碳酸锂2510 - 1000 62580 -0. 03% 20000 碳酸锂2511 62480 0. 03% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 625 -5 46 297 (1 i 20 · 5 5%-6%) 利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 60458 H 利 生 注 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -8 65930 F 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6984 行业 津巴布韦将从 2027 年起禁止锂精矿出口 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, the pulp market is expected to be bearish [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On July 1, 2025, for futures prices, SP2601 was 5216, down 0.72% day - on - day and 2.50% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5060, up 1.00% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; SP2509 was 5026, down 0.75% day - on - day and 2.14% week - on - week [1] - For spot prices, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.67% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.58% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4020, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.74% week - on - week [1] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes (in dollars): Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353 tons in April 2025, down 30.80% compared to March [1] - In terms of domestic production, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different weeks in June 2025 [1] Inventory - The pulp port inventory on different dates in June 2025 fluctuated, with 216.3 tons on June 26, 2025, down 4.5 tons from the previous period and 2.0% week - on - week [1] - The delivery warehouse inventory also fluctuated, with 24.60 tons on June 26, 2025 [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard decreased this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On July 1, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 94 with a quantile level of 0.84; the Silver Star basis was 874 with a quantile level of 0.972 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16 with a quantile level of 0.65; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567 with a quantile level of 0.186 [1] Summary - Supply side: On June 20, Arauco lowered the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) for June by $20/ton to $720/ton, and the shipment volume to China increased by 3.3% month - on - month, showing an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1] - Demand side: The production of major finished papers decreased this week, and the prices of finished papers were low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - Inventory side: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG 国贸期货 数据日报 | 指标 | | 7月1日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 日照 | -11 -81 | | 2500 2000 1000 | =====19/20 ======20/21 ======21/22 ======22/23 | | | -23/24 | · 24/25 | | | 天津 | -41 | | 1500 | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -121 | | -900 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | | | 09/21 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | | | | | 东莞 | -111 | | | M9-M1 | | | | | | | 湛江 | -111 | | -----2019/20 1000 ...

世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 入 期 市 市 服 热线 官 方 网 站 雷 有 fat 1年 150 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 馆 Ma ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | COMEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/7/1 | 3331.05 | ...

| 2025/07/02 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元/吨) | | | | | | | | 7月1日 | 3016.00 | 3136.00 | 685. 00 | 1427.50 | 857.00 | | | 涨跌值 | -7.00 | -4.00 | -7. 50 | -36. 50 | -29.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.23 | -0. 13 | -1.08 | -2. 49 | -3.27 - | | | 近月合约收盘价 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 瓶片短纤数据日报 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 40. 00% 47.00% 7. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67. 00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始第 (零收) 图日员2日■ T325纯涤纱价格 ■ 1.4D直红杀短 会短坝金流 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 - 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 10000 250 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/2 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/6/30 | 2025/7/1 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 496. 7 | 499. 4 | 2. 70 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,月初下游聚酯工厂消耗长约PTA为 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1188. 4 | 1170. 8 | -17. 62 | 主,对PTA现货采购意向偏低,PTA现货基差走弱。部 | | | | | | | 分聚酯瓶片工厂执行减产,关注后续聚酯减产情况, | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3292 | 1. 3226 | -0. 0066 | 利空PTA市场。 | | | CFR中国PX | 874 | 861 | -13 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current EC08 contract on the trading board is at a discount to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the potential logic of Scenario 2. This year, the European route trading is prone to a cycle of "front - running - logic reinforcement - losses". It is recommended to value the "error - tolerance" space of far - month contracts, formulate far - month positive spread strategies based on historical delivery data, and avoid over - relying on short - term sentiment. [9] - The trading on the board returns to fundamental drivers, with trading centered around the expectation of the peak season transitioning to the off - season. As the end of the tariff suspension period approaches, some airlines expect to raise prices in late July. [9][10] - Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread strategy. [11] 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1862, down 0.43% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1369, up 2.00%. SCFI - US West is at 2578, down 7.00%; SCFIS - US West is at 1619, down 22.28%; SCFI - US East is at 4717, down 11.86%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 2030, up 10.63%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 2123, up 9.60%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2985, down 2.55%. [4] - **Contracts**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., the current values and their percentage changes are provided. For example, EC2508 is currently at 1904.9, up 8.15% from the previous value. [4] - **Open Interest**: The current open interest and its changes for contracts like EC2606, EC2508, etc. are given. For instance, the current open interest of EC2508 is 40476, an increase of 1248 from the previous value. [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The current monthly spreads (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) and their changes are presented. For example, the 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently 521.1, up 98.7 from the previous value. [4] Market News - After the JOLTS data was released, traders slightly reduced the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, expecting the cuts to start in September, with a 21% probability of a cut in July. [5] - The White House stated that Trump may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period in July. Trump plans to visit China with dozens of CEOs. Fed Chairman Powell said that a "substantial majority" of Fed members expect to cut interest rates later this year. [6] - According to the Financial Times, Trump's tariff policy and falling river levels have led to the worst supply - chain congestion in European ports since the pandemic, especially in Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg, and the congestion is expected to last for at least several months. [7] - Iran's ambassador to the UN stated that Tehran "will never stop" uranium - enrichment activities, emphasizing it as an inalienable right and national sovereignty under the NPT. [7] Market Conditions and Strategies for EC Contracts - **Market Conditions**: The spot freight rates have been rising this week. The quotes for European basic ports in late June are 2,800 - 3,200 US dollars per 40 - foot container, and the upward trend is expected to continue until mid - July. For the 7 - 8 month European route freight rates, there are three scenarios: a collapse - style decline if a large amount of US - bound capacity shifts to the European route; an "arc - top" trend if shipping companies control capacity; and global capacity misallocation due to unexpected factors. [8] - **Trading Strategies**: Given that the EC08 contract on the board is at a discount to the spot price, attention should be paid to the potential logic of Scenario 2. It is recommended to formulate far - month positive spread strategies based on historical delivery data and hold the 12 - 4 positive spread. [9][11]