1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a long - term bullish rating on butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical cycle has reached an inflection point, and the elasticity of BD/BR has significantly increased. With strong fundamental support for butadiene, the "high -开工, high - inventory" situation of cis - butadiene rubber continues, the number of warehouse receipts increases, and both spot and futures prices rise. It is expected that the price of synthetic rubber still has further upward room [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped significantly and then rebounded rapidly this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,200 to 12,200 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the spot and mainstream supply prices fell continuously due to various factors. In the middle and late weeks, the price of raw materials increased significantly, leading to a rapid disappearance of the bearish sentiment in the spot market [4] 3.2 Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: The weekly output was [data unclear] tons last week, with a capacity utilization rate of [data unclear]%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, and the output release was limited. Maoming Petrochemical's plant restarted gradually [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Some private cis - butadiene plants in the north had production conversion and slight load reduction. Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant was under maintenance and was expected to restart at the beginning of the next cycle [3] 3.3 Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel tires**: There was some stocking behavior in the all - season tire market for the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. The trading volume of snow tires increased slightly due to low - temperature weather, but the terminal demand still needed further stimulation from snowfall [3] - **All - steel tires**: The market transaction was dull. In December, the industry stocked up a lot to complete purchase tasks. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the inventory digestion is slow. The secondary purchase ability is insufficient this month, and the industry focuses on payment collection [3] 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: The port inventory last week was 34,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.65%. The East China port showed a continuous destocking trend, and it is expected to continue due to reduced arrivals and lower capacity utilization [3] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The total inventory of enterprises and traders was 35,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%. The inventory of producers increased, while that of traders decreased, with a slight overall inventory build - up, and the warehouse receipt inventory pressure was high [3] 3.5 Price and Profit Analysis - **Price**: The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber all increased this week. For example, the ex - factory price of butadiene in Dalian Hengli increased by 950 yuan/ton from January 19th to January 23rd, with a weekly increase of 10.15% [7][8] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation - dehydrogenation was 1,260 yuan/ton, and that of C4 extraction was 2,944.06 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 615 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 4.62% [3] 3.6 Investment and Trading Strategy - **Investment view**: Bullish in the medium and long term [3] - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, maintain an appropriate long position and beware of the risk of capital profit - taking and price correction. For arbitrage, focus on going long BR and shorting NR/RU. Pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for both PE and PP is "oscillation", indicating that in the short - term, the market is expected to have an amplitude between - 5% and 5% [3][4] 2. Report's Core View - The short - term market for both PE (LLDPE) and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the market will mainly move in an oscillatory pattern [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes Supply - This week, China's total polyethylene production was 69.89 tons, a 4.34% increase from last week, and the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 84.67%, a 3.07 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Although there were new maintenance plans in some enterprises, the restart of 10 previously shut - down units led to an increase in capacity utilization [3] Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period, and the average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.3%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 13.407 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.21%. In December 2025, the import volume was 1.3299 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.62% and a month - on - month increase of 25.21% [3] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous period, and the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 477,400 tons, a 1.43% decrease from the previous period. The inventory decline was mainly due to production enterprises' price cuts to reduce inventory [3] Cost - The oil - based production cost increased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, while the coal - based, ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production costs decreased by 33, 129, 244, and 66 yuan/ton respectively [3] Profit - The import profit of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased compared with the previous period. The overall profit of PE was lower than the same period last year [3][26] Import and Export - PE exports were better than the same period last year [29] PP Fundamental Changes Capacity and Production - This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 784,900 tons, a 0.53% increase from last week and a 9.36% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 76.02%, a 0.40% increase from the previous period [4] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 2.21% from the previous period, the production enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased by 6.15%, and the inventory of sample port enterprises decreased by 7.51%. Overall, the inventory at various levels was higher than the same period last year, except for port inventory which was lower [4][47][54] Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for PP showed significant divergence. The average operating rate of polypropylene increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87%. As the temperature dropped, the demand in downstream industries such as plastic weaving and transparent PP entered a seasonal off - season [4] Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production were restored, while the profit of PP production from externally purchased propylene declined. The average import profit of Chinese polypropylene samples was - 352.61 yuan/ton, a 44.60% decrease from last week. The production profit was similar to the same period last year [4][82]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market has a situation where the supply side has price adjustments from suppliers, the demand side is relatively stable with some changes in paper production, and the inventory side shows a continuous inventory accumulation trend. In the short - term, the upward space of pulp futures is limited, and it is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On January 23, 2026, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2609, and SP2605 were 5572 yuan/ton, 5442 yuan/ton, and 5398 yuan/ton respectively, with day - on - day increases of 0.69%, 0.48%, and 0.33% and week - on - week increases of 0.54%, 0.78%, and 0.67% respectively. The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were 5400 yuan/ton, 5250 yuan/ton, and 4650 yuan/ton respectively, with day - on - day changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.00% and week - on - week changes of - 0.92%, 0.00%, and - 1.06% respectively [5] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 700 dollars/ton, 540 dollars/ton, and 620 dollars/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.94%, 1.89%, and 0.00%. The import costs were 5721 yuan/ton, 4425 yuan/ton, and 5073 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.91%, 1.87%, and 0.00% [5] Supply - side Data - In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, a 7.31% increase from November; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.2 tons, a 23.40% decrease from November. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp had some fluctuations from January 8, 2026, to December 4, 2025. Chilean Arauco's January offer for coniferous pulp was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; broadleaf pulp Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; and unbleached pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] Inventory Data - As of January 22, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 206.8 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous period, and the inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks. The futures delivery warehouse inventory also had some fluctuations [5] Demand - side Data - The production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard had different degrees of decline recently. The demand side of pulp was relatively stable recently, with a slight increase in tissue paper prices and stable prices of other paper products [5] Strategy - Recently, pulp futures warehouse receipts are concentrated for registration, and the upward space is limited. The price of broadleaf pulp has slightly loosened. It is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [6]

Group 1 - The report is a precious metals data daily report, providing data and analysis on precious metals such as gold and silver [3][4] Group 2 - On January 23, 2026, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.55% to 1115.64 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 8.5% to 24,965 yuan/kilogram [4] - Geopolitical risks such as the Greenland crisis, US sanctions on Iran, and the consideration of overthrowing the Venezuelan regime have led to a surge in risk aversion, boosting precious metal prices [5] - Large - scale capital outflows from currency and sovereign debt and into gold and silver have pushed up the prices of gold and silver [5] - Japan's actions in the bond market, the hawkish stance of the Bank of Japan governor, and the sharp rebound of the yen have increased the decline of the US dollar index, which is beneficial to precious metal prices [5] - London spot gold approached $5000 per ounce, and London spot silver broke through $100 per ounce for the first time in history, with an intraday increase of over 7% [5] Group 3 - In the short term, geopolitical risks, high market uncertainty, risk - aversion, and strong silver fundamentals will continue to support precious metal prices. However, the risk of short - term profit - taking should be watched out for due to the upcoming tripartite contact between Russia, Ukraine, and the US and the Fed's January interest - rate meeting [6] - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainty will continue, the trend of de - dollarization will accelerate, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. So the price center of precious metals is likely to move up. Investors are advised to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Group 4 Price Tracking - **15 - point prices on January 23, 2026**: London gold spot was $4954.27/ounce, London silver spot was $99.03/ounce, COMEX gold was $4955.00/ounce, COMEX silver was $99.04/ounce, AU2602 was 1111.88 yuan/gram, AG2602 was 24994 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1110.30 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 24970 yuan/kilogram. Compared with January 22, 2026, the price increases were 2.7%, 5.3%, 2.7%, 5.4%, 2.6%, 6.9%, 2.7%, and 6.9% respectively [4] - **Price differences on January 23, 2026**: The gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.58 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 3.55 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 166 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 44.49, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 50.03, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.76 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 29 yuan/kilogram. The changes compared with January 22, 2026 were - 25.5%, 33.3%, - 28.3%, - 67.5%, - 4.1%, - 2.6%, - 6.5%, and - 6.5% respectively [4] Position Data - On January 23, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1086.53 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 16089.98142 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 295772 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 51002 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 244770 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 42965 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 17751 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 25214 contracts. Compared with January 22, 2026, the changes were 0.64%, - 0.09%, - 0.14%, 13.48%, - 2.57%, - 9.24%, 16.19%, and - 21.35% respectively [4] Inventory Data - On January 23, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 102009 kilograms, the SHFE silver inventory was 581090 kilograms, the COMEX gold inventory was 36144280 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 416424863 troy ounces. Compared with January 22, 2026, the changes were 0.00%, - 1.35%, 0.00%, and - 0.42% respectively [4] Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 23, 2026, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 6.99, the US dollar index was 97.51, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24%, the VIX was 16.09, the S&P 500 was 6915.61, and NYMEX crude oil was $61.28/barrel. Compared with January 22, 2026, the changes were - 0.13%, - 0.79%, - 0.28%, - 0.47%, 2.88%, 0.03%, and 2.70% respectively [4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及问第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D'AVA -- PTA: PX市场强势引领化工品上涨,化工板块资金大幅 流入。在"周期反转"叙事推动下,市场大幅增持化 工品配置,聚酯领涨整个化工板块。国内PTA产量持续 增长,国内无新增PTA产能,现有装置需要维持高负荷 以匹配聚酯增长;印度PTA满产运行,新项目GMPL已采 购PX用于调试,进一步推升区域需求。国内两套PX装 料,中东亦有计划性停产;韩国装置虽有提负或重启 意向,当前PX-混合二甲苯价差维持约150美元。PX-石 脑油价差继续扩张,显著高于汽油调合收益,促使炼 厂持续倾向芳烃 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 22, A-shares showed narrow consolidation with unapparent sector rotation, and funds still favored the commercial aerospace direction. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.14% to close at 4122.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.5%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%, the North Star 50 Index rose 0.69%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.41%, the Wind All A Index rose 0.44%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.09%, and the CSI 4500 Index rose 0.12%. The total trading volume of A-shares throughout the day was 2.72 trillion yuan, compared with 2.62 trillion yuan the previous day [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (Billion Yuan) | Trading Volume (Billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Index 1 | 3053.1277 | -0.46 | 1934.11 | 62.92 | | Index 2 | 4723.7091 | 0.01 | 6902.35 | 274.20 | | Index 3 | 8309.3456 | 0.75 | 5718.06 | 328.56 | [3] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation | Option Type | Option Trading Volume (Ten Thousand Contracts) | Call Option Volume | Put Option Volume | PCR | Option Open Interest (Ten Thousand Contracts) | Call Option Open Interest | Put Option Open Interest | PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Option 1 | 3.25 | 1.98 | 1.27 | 0.64 | 6.51 | 4.00 | 2.51 | 0.63 | | Option 2 | 8.41 | 5.17 | 3.23 | 0.62 | 17.10 | 10.23 | 6.87 | 0.67 | | Option 3 | 18.84 | 10.99 | 7.85 | 0.71 | 28.94 | 14.46 | 14.47 | 1.00 | [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - The report presents the historical volatility cones and volatility smile curves for the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices, including information such as the maximum, minimum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, and the current values, as well as the next-month at-the-money implied volatility [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, natural rubber, BR rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial silicon [1] - **Sideways**: Stock index, treasury bond, copper, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, silver, gold, platinum, palladium, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, soda ash, coking coal, coke, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, corn, soybean meal, pulp, log, live pig, fuel oil, ethylene glycol, styrene, methanol, asphalt, PTA, short - fiber, PVC, LPG, container shipping on the European route [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - **Macro - financial**: Policy cools market speculative sentiment, stock index oscillates, long - term bulls can look for opportunities; asset shortage and weak economy benefit treasury bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted [1] - **Non - ferrous metals**: With policy changes, most non - ferrous metals prices are in a state of high - level or range oscillation, and supply - side factors need attention [1] - **Precious metals and new energy**: Market uncertainty supports precious metals prices, but the suspension of key mineral tariffs may suppress platinum and palladium prices [1] - **Black metals**: The situation of weak reality and strong expectation coexists, and the supply may be affected by energy consumption control and anti - involution [1] - **Agricultural products**: The market conditions vary, some are affected by supply and demand, some by policies and weather, and some are in a state of "supported but lack of drive" [1] - **Energy and chemicals**: Affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and device maintenance, prices show different trends [1] 3) Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock index**: Policy regulates the market, short - term oscillation adjustment space is limited, long - term bulls can look for opportunities [1] - **Treasury bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted, and attention should be paid to the Japanese central bank's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: With the suspension of key mineral taxes in the US, short - term concerns ease, and the price oscillates at a high level [1] - **Alumina**: Supply exceeds demand in China, the industry is weak, but the price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1] - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, the fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price fluctuates in a range [1] - **Nickel**: Supply is tight, but inventory accumulation restricts price increase, short - term high - level oscillation [1] - **Stainless steel**: Supply - side disturbances in Indonesia, raw material prices rise, futures run at a high level, beware of squeeze - out risks [1] - **Tin**: The upward trend is suppressed, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities in the oscillation range [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Silver, Gold**: Market uncertainty supports prices [1] - **Platinum, Palladium**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, long - term can allocate platinum at low prices or use the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Northwest production increases, Southwest production decreases, and polysilicon and organic silicon production decreases in December [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: In the off - season of new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong, and there is a battery export rush [1] Black metals - **Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore**: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures prices to spot is not smooth [1] - **Ferrosilicon, Manganese silicon**: Weak reality and strong expectation coexist, and supply may be affected by energy consumption control and anti - involution [1] - **Soda ash**: Follows glass, with looser medium - term supply and demand and price pressure [1] - **Coking coal, Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and the price may be priced according to Mongolian coal long - term agreement cost [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, Soybean oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, production areas may reduce production and inventory, and biodiesel themes may ferment [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Affected by tariff and customs clearance expectations, it is expected to be difficult to fall smoothly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Cotton**: New crop harvest is expected to be good, but there is a rigid demand for replenishment, and future policies and weather need attention [1] - **Sugar**: Global surplus and domestic new supply increase, short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1] - **Corn**: Northeast sales progress is fast, port inventory is low, and there is a pre - holiday replenishment demand [1] - **Soybean meal**: Brazil's harvest progresses, Argentina's weather may cause short - term speculation, and M05 is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Pulp, Log**: Affected by macro and external factors, prices are in a state of oscillation [1] - **Live pig**: Supply capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, affected by the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela [1] - **Natural rubber**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, follows crude oil, and asphalt profit is high [1] - **BR rubber**: Cost support is strong, market price - support atmosphere is strong, and attention should be paid to downstream acceptance [1] - **PTA, Short - fiber**: PX price rises, PTA maintains high - level operation, and short - fiber follows cost fluctuations [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Supply - side news stimulates price rebound, and downstream demand exceeds expectations [1] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand fundamentals improve, inventory decreases, and price rebounds [1] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian situation, there is a reduction in expected imports, and downstream feedback is negative [1] - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical conflicts may cause price increases, supply increases, and downstream demand weakens [1] - **PVC**: Global production is low in 2026, but the domestic fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, cost support is strong, and inventory is decreasing [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: It is expected to peak in mid - January, airlines' resumption of flights is cautious, and pre - holiday replenishment demand still exists [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 1数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2026/1/23 | 指标 | | 1月22日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | ===== 16/17 | == | == | ** | == | | | 大连 | 452 | -43 | 2500 2000 | ===== 21/22 | ====== 22/23 | == | 24/25 | 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 日照 | | | 1000 500 | | | | | | | | 天津 | 392 | -43 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | 332 | -63 | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | 312 | -43 | -500 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | | | 05/21 06 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GER期货 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 卢钉毅 2026/1/23 从业资格号: F03101843 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 1574 | 1210 | 2194 | | 3163 | | | 集 | | | | | 1305 | | 1676 | | | 前值 | 1647 | 1195 | 2218 | 1323 | 3128 | 1719 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -4.45% | 1.25% | -1.08% | -1.36% | 1.12% | -2.50% | | pr T | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: Spot demand weakens seasonally, focus on basis opportunities. Steel prices are expected to have support at low levels, and hot-rolled coil futures-spot positive arbitrage can be rolled. Trade with a unilateral range-bound mindset, or use option strategies to assist spot trading [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Prices rebound with market sentiment. Supply is high and demand is weak. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the risk of a decline is high. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices [2][4][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: The sector fluctuates. Spot prices are weak, and the market trades for a reasonable valuation. Wait for a rally to short on the futures market, and cash in on the spot market when appropriate [5][7] - Iron Ore: Prices are mainly volatile. The accident at the steel mill may affect iron ore demand, and there is pressure on the upside. Wait for a rebound to enter short positions [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On January 22, for far-month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3169.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 8.00 yuan (0.25%); HC2610 closed at 3302.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan (0.15%); J2609 closed at 1758.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 10.00 yuan (0.57%); JM2609 closed at 1203.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 9.00 yuan (0.75%). For near-month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3124.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 11.00 yuan (0.35%); HC2605 closed at 3287.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 8.00 yuan (0.24%); J2605 closed at 1688.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 14.00 yuan (0.84%); JM2605 closed at 1131.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 12.00 yuan (1.07%) [1] - **Inter-month Spreads**: On January 22, RB2605 - 2610 was -45.00 yuan/ton with no change; HC2605 - 2610 was -15.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 4.00 yuan; 12605 - 2609 was 17.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 0.50 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was -70.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was -71.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 2.50 yuan [1] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On January 22, the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread was 163.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 6.00 yuan; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.97 with no change; the coal - coke ratio was 1.49 with no change; the rebar paper profit was -75.48 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.63 yuan; the coking paper profit was 183.11 yuan/ton with a gain of 1.18 yuan [1] Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On January 22, Shanghai rebar was 3260.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tianjin rebar was 3140.00 yuan/ton with no change; Guangzhou rebar was 3420.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tangshan billet was 2930.00 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 103.45 with a gain of 0.25. Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 40.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot-rolled coil was 3340.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 40.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot-rolled coil was 3260.00 yuan/ton with no change; the billet - steel product spread was 330.00 yuan/ton with no change; Rizhao Port PB was 794.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Other Products**: On January 22, Qingdao Port Super Special Powder was 668.00 yuan/ton with no change; Ganqimaodu Coking Coal was 1235.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Class Coke (ex - warehouse) was 1430.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port PB was 794.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Basis**: On January 22, the HC main contract basis was 3.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 39.00 yuan; the RB main contract basis was 136.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 7.00 yuan; the main contract basis was 20.00 yuan/ton with no change; the J main contract basis was -115.37 yuan/ton with a loss of 4.50 yuan; the JM main contract basis was 133.50 yuan/ton with a loss of 2.50 yuan [1]