投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 市场资金加速流入，纯苯苯乙烯大幅上涨 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 苯乙烯：市场资金加速流入，纯苯苯乙烯大幅上涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，苯乙烯与石脑油的价差为342美元，苯乙烯与苯的价差稳定在212美元，非一体化装置利润修复。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 截至2026年1月19日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：29.7万吨，较上期库存32.4万吨去库2.7万吨，环比下降8.33%；较去年同期库存14.3万吨累库15.4 万吨，同比上升107.69%。1月12日-1月18日，不完全统计到货0吨，提货约2.7万吨。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 截至2026年1月19日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：9.35万吨，较上周期减0.71万吨，幅度-7.06%。商品量库存在5.89万吨，较上周期减0.1万吨，幅度 1.67%。 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is in a state of narrow - range operation, with each sub - sector showing different trends. The steel market continues to be volatile, with limited upside and downside drivers; the coking coal and coke market is in an oscillating and weak state, and the iron ore market is in a short - term oscillating and strong pattern but faces long - term pressure from inventory [5][66][116] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron and steel production shows a slight increase, with iron water production fluctuating within a narrow range and scrap steel daily consumption increasing slightly. It is expected that after January, iron water production will rise, and the electric furnace will gradually reduce production during the Spring Festival, balancing the total output of crude steel [5] - **Demand**: Building materials demand shows obvious seasonality, and the demand for plates is weak in both supply and demand. The spot market lacks fluidity, and the overall demand support for the market is limited [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products has shifted from destocking to seasonal inventory accumulation, with slow inventory reduction for plates and high - inventory pressure for hot - rolled coils [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, and the basis of rebar decreases slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is at a relatively low - to - medium level, and the actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit [5] - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage. The relative valuation is neutral [5] - **Macro and Risk Preference**: Commodity fluctuations increase, and there are structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to capital flow and rotation [5] - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The black market is in a state of range - bound operation. It is advisable to use an oscillating mindset for single - side trading, and continue rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider range or short - term long strategies; for arbitrage, focus on widening the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar; for cash - and - carry, continue rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [6] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The steel market enters the off - season, with overall weak industrial data. The demand for coking coal and coke weakens seasonally, and inventory accumulates. However, there is no excessive spot selling pressure, and the market mainly trades at a reasonable valuation [66] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mine production continues to increase but will peak before the Spring Festival. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, but market transactions are weak. The price of Australian coal continues to rise, and there is a continuous internal - external price inversion [66] - **Coke Supply**: Coke production remains stable, and the first round of price increases is temporarily postponed, with stable coking profits [66] - **Inventory**: Downstream inventory replenishment slows down, and the market sentiment weakens after the first - round price increase of coke is postponed [66] - **Basis/Spread**: The first - round price increase of coke is temporarily postponed, and the cost of the first - round price increase for the 05 - contract wet - quenched/dry - quenched coke is 1729/1756. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts drops to around 1120 [66] - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills increases slightly, while coking profits remain at a loss [66] - **Summary**: The coking coal and coke market is oscillating and weak. The first - round price increase of coke still has a chance to be implemented, but the upward driving force is insufficient. It is recommended to cash out spot stocks at high prices before the festival and wait for short - selling opportunities in the futures market after the price rises [66] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, cash out spot stocks at appropriate times and wait for short - selling opportunities in the futures market after the price rises; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [66] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipping volume rebounds, and the arrival volume in China also shows a mixed trend. Australian and non - mainstream ore arrivals increase, while Brazilian ore arrivals decrease [116] - **Demand**: Steel mill iron water production is basically stable, and it is expected to increase significantly in February. The daily port dredging volume decreases, and port inventory continues to be higher than the same period last year [116] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increases again, reaching a new high for the year, which is a long - term pressure factor for the iron ore market [116] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are at a low level [116] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively high [116] - **Summary**: In the short term, the iron ore market is in an oscillating and strong pattern due to factors such as inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival and expected production resumption in February. However, in the long term, port inventory pressure will be the main factor restricting the price [116] - **Investment View**: Neutral [116] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - term long positions and short positions at pressure levels for long - term trading; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [116]

本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：下游MTO停工，伊朗局势反复 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周甲醇供给呈"国内稳、进口缩"格局。国内装置开工率77.91%，环比微降0.18%，煤制甲醇开工高位支撑产量，新疆100万吨级新产能投产补充供应，仅天然气制装置开工小幅下滑。 | | | | 进口端收缩明显，伊朗冬季限气致多套装置停车，本周港口到港28.49万吨，华东到港略减、华南增量。库存方面，港口总量145.75万吨小幅累库，华东去库与华南累库形成对冲，整体维 | | | | 持历史中高位置，供应整体充裕但进口缩减缓解库存压力。 | | 需求 | 利空 | 本周甲醇需求整体偏弱，结构性分化显著。主力下游MTO开工率回落，兴兴等装置检修，外采需求缩减。传统下游表现分化，醋酸、MTBE开工小幅回升，甲醛、二甲醚维持低位。内地 | | | | 采购情绪清淡，港口提货力度不一，总消费量环比微降。短期受装置检修拖累，需求缺乏上行驱动，后续需关注MTO重启进度。 | | 库 ...

|数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 全国主要油厂开机率(%) 全国主要油厂大豆压榨量(万吨) ==== 2020 ===== 2021 ==== 2022 ==== 2023 ===== 2024 ==== 2025 ==== 2020 ==== 2021 ===== 2022 ===== 2023 ===== 2024 ===== 2024 - 2025 · 2026 2026 250 100 200 80 开机和压榨情况 60 1 90 100 40 50 20 11/07 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 07/06 08/06 09/06 12/08 12/08 06/05 10/07 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 01/01 (万吨) ------ 2019 ----- 2020 ------ 2021 ----- 2022 ----- 2023 ------ 2024 - 2026 2025 2026 2025 == == ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [7] - Polysilicon: Wait - and - see [8] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [79] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term supply disturbances of industrial silicon and the trend of demand contraction may increase inventory depletion, but it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate. For polysilicon, due to poor contract liquidity, investors are advised to be cautious. Lithium carbonate inventory has been substantially depleted, and the fundamentals support the price, which is expected to continue to be strong [7][8][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon (SI) Supply - The national weekly output is 7.62 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%; the number of open furnaces is 217, a week - on - week decrease of 4. The December output is 39.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 19.75%; the January production schedule is 37.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26% [7]. Demand - For polysilicon, the weekly output is 2.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.40%. The December output is 11.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the January production schedule is 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19%. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly output is 4.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61% [7]. Inventory - The explicit inventory is 51.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.86%. The industry inventory is 45.30 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 6.49 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44% [7]. Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton is 8998 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%; the gross profit per ton is - 46 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. The gross profit in the main producing areas is basically stable [7]. Investment View - The price is expected to oscillate, and the unilateral trading is bearish [7]. Polysilicon (PS) Supply - The national weekly output is 2.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.40%. The December output is 11.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the January production schedule is 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19% [8]. Demand - The silicon wafer weekly output is 10.95GW, a week - on - week increase of 4.79%. The December silicon wafer output is 43.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 19.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.01%; the January production schedule is 45.2GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.74% [8]. Inventory - The factory inventory is 32.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The registered warehouse receipts are 20550 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.22% [8]. Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton is 42969 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.41%; the gross profit per ton is 16241 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 174 yuan [8]. Investment View - Due to poor contract liquidity, investors are advised to wait and see and be cautious about price fluctuations and liquidity risks [8]. Lithium Carbonate (LC) Supply - The national weekly output is 2.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The December output is 9.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 41.00%; the January production schedule is about 9.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78% [79]. Import - In December, the lithium carbonate import volume is 2.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The lithium concentrate import volume is 62.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31% and a year - on - year increase of 30.22% [79]. Material Demand - For iron - lithium materials, the weekly output is 9.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. The December output is 40.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17% and a year - on - year increase of 46.00%; the January production schedule is 36.34 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.03% and a year - on - year increase of 44.29%. For ternary materials, the weekly output is 1.80 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88% [79]. Terminal Demand - In December, the new energy vehicle production is 171.80 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.29%; the sales volume is 171.00 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.18% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%. From January to November, the cumulative winning bid power/scale of energy storage is 59.48GW/160.39GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 70.53%/118.93% [79]. Inventory - The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. The lithium salt factory inventory is 1.98 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 2.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.50% [79]. Cost and Profit - For lithium extraction from purchased ore, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 149738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%; the production profit is 9003 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4467 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 154692 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.87%; the production profit is 7644 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4163 yuan/ton [79]. Investment View - The price is expected to continue to be strong, and the unilateral trading is bullish [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market is strong, leading the rise of chemical products. With the inflow of large - scale funds into the chemical sector, polyester leads the entire chemical sector under the "cycle reversal" narrative. The supply - side drive is expected to be mainly strong, and the unilateral trading strategy is to be bullish [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: PX market strength drives chemical product prices up, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and existing PTA plants maintain high loads. PTA processing fees have rebounded to 500 yuan, and the PX - naphtha spread remains above 350 dollars [4]. - **Demand**: Domestic polyester demand has declined. Although polyester factory production cuts have a certain negative feedback on PTA, the impact is limited, and PTA consumption remains high with rapidly expanding processing fees [4]. - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons, and the negative feedback from downstream polyester factories has weakened the basis [4]. - **Basis**: PTA profits have expanded significantly, and PX maintains high profits [4]. - **Profit**: The PX - naphtha spread reaches 350 dollars, and PTA processing fees have expanded to around 500 yuan [4]. - **Valuation**: PTA prices have significantly rebounded to above 5,300 yuan. The profit of reforming units has recovered, and overseas PX plants have increased their loads due to profit expansion [4]. - **Macro - policy**: Neutral, mainly related to international diplomatic events without direct impact on the market [4]. - **Investment view**: Bullish, mainly driven by the supply side [4]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Bullish. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [4] 3.2 Part Two: Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Global situation**: The global aromatic hydrocarbon market is strengthening due to geopolitical risks in Iran. RBOB gasoline prices are rising, and the spread between high - octane components and reformate has narrowed, indicating that blending demand has not increased synchronously. US refinery operating rates have risen to 95%, and supply remains high. Ebob gasoline prices have risen due to Middle East tensions, and some refineries may restart soon. Overall, market sentiment is dominated by geopolitical premiums, and the fundamentals have not tightened substantially [31]. - **US gasoline situation**: US gasoline is gradually building inventories. Refineries are operating at high loads, and gasoline cracking profits are weakening [9][15] 3.3 Part Three: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply situation**: Crude oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical risks, driving up naphtha prices. Although refining profits are still negative, reformate supply remains tight. Domestic refinery operating rates are low, and independent refineries partially fill the gap. Some key units are under maintenance or postponed restart, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to shut down a reforming unit in January, suppressing aromatic hydrocarbon output. Asian reformate markets remain firm under the dual support of "strong blending demand + limited aromatic hydrocarbon supply" but are constrained by weak refining profits and structural surplus expectations [44]. - **PX situation**: PX is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures [56][64]. - **PTA situation**: Due to large domestic PTA production capacity, the PTA processing range has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new plants and capacities, the option - based income - enhancement scheme is increasingly used in the market [56][64]. - **Short - fiber and bottle - chip situation**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in the capacity launch cycle. Since domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the route [56][64]. - **Mixed xylene situation**: Overseas mixed xylene prices are rising due to energy price rebounds and geopolitical risks. North American mixed xylene markets lack spot transactions, indicating weak demand. European markets are in a tight state, and PX is still the main application direction. Asian mixed xylene prices have risen slightly, and the PX - mixed xylene spread remains at a high level of 150 dollars. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is mainly from the PX industry. In the short term, mixed xylene prices may remain strong [57][65]. - **Aromatic hydrocarbon blending spread situation**: Aromatic hydrocarbon blending spreads have shrunk [66]. - **Reform profit situation**: PX market strength drives the rise of chemical products, and funds flow into the chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and PX - naphtha spreads continue to expand, prompting refineries to focus on aromatic hydrocarbon extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and domestic demand has declined, with limited negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts [74] 3.4 Part Four: Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol situation**: Overseas ethylene glycol prices have rebounded after a long - term slump. Reduced ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East have boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is operating at about 80% capacity, and one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines plans to switch to polyethylene production in mid - February. Supply contraction has opened up room for price increases [86]. - **Gasoline situation**: Asian gasoline profits are strong, and the market is waiting for domestic gasoline exports [87]. - **Polyester situation**: Funds are flowing into the chemical sector, and polyester leads the chemical industry. Upstream industrial chain profits are expanding [93][100]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping industry is "震荡" (sideways movement), indicating that the market is expected to have an amplitude of -5% to 5% in the short, medium, and long - term [3][85]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The talks between Israel and Hamas have entered the second stage, and the sentiment of rush - shipping expectations has subsided. The EC (Container Shipping Index for European Routes) shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness, with the progress of the Red Sea route's resumption being the core trading variable [3]. - In the short term (first quarter), the rush of exports of products like photovoltaic items supports the cargo volume. Coupled with the fact that 9% - 10% of effective shipping capacity is locked due to Red Sea detours, the near - month contracts are supported by the spot index. In the long - term (2026), the delivery of new ships will lead to a higher growth rate of shipping capacity supply than demand. If the Suez Canal resumes normal operation, a large amount of hidden shipping capacity will be released, continuously suppressing the freight rate center [3]. - The price of spot freight for European routes is showing a pre - holiday decline. The shipping companies' actions to support prices have obvious differences. Investors need to closely monitor the official signals of route resumption, China's export data, and the rhythm of shipping capacity deployment, and be vigilant about the downward risk of far - month contracts [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rate**: It is a negative factor. The 40 - foot container freight rates for European routes vary among different alliances. In the future one or two weeks (from late January to early February), the rates are expected to decline as the cargo volume enters the pre - Spring Festival vacuum period. For example, Maersk's Week 6 opening price will drop to $2000 - 2100 [3]. - **Political and Economic Factors**: They are neutral. The shipping schedules of CMA CGM on European routes show some arrangements for passing through or bypassing the Suez Canal. There are also some political events such as the suspension of additional tariffs on eight European countries and the upcoming "Peace Committee Charter Signing Ceremony" [3]. - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. The weekly average shipping capacity has been increasing from November 2025 to January 2026. In January 2026, the weekly average shipping capacity is concentrated in the range of 313,000 - 321,000 TEU, and the shipping schedules are more evenly distributed [3]. - **Demand**: It is a negative factor. Currently, the cargo volume on European container shipping routes is stable, but the freight rate is continuously loosening. In the next half - month (until early February), approaching the Spring Festival, there is no traditional pre - holiday peak season. With sufficient shipping capacity supply, the freight rate is expected to continue to decline [3]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is "sideways movement". The trading strategy for both single - side and arbitrage is to wait and see. The risks to focus on are geopolitical disturbances and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Price - There are charts showing the trends of various container shipping route indices, including the European route index, the US West route index, and the US East route index [6]. 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data and charts showing the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 [11]. - **Delivery Volume**: There are data and charts presenting the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 to 2025 [14]. - **Demolition Volume**: There are data and charts showing the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 to 2025 [15]. - **Future Delivery**: There are predictions and charts about the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2023 to 2029 [20]. - **Ship Prices**: There are data and charts on the scrap prices, new - building prices, and second - hand prices of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [27][29][33]. - **Existing Shipping Capacity**: There are data and charts showing the existing shipping capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, percentage, age, and loading capacity distribution from 2015 to 2025 [42][45][49]. 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: There are charts showing the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports from week 13 to week 28, as well as the capacity deployments of different alliances and shipping companies [57][59][61]. - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: There are data and charts on the container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage from 2018 to 2025 [68]. - **Average Speed and Idle Capacity**: There are data and charts on the average speed and idle capacity of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [72][76].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪消退，盘面价格回落 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪消退，盘面价格回落 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，尚未有产能退出，供大于求格局短期难改，供给压力偏大。（2）PVC生产企业产能利用率在78.74%环比减少 | | | | 0.89%，同比减少3.29%；其中电石法在80.00%环比增加0.02%，同比减少1.71%，乙烯法在75.74%环比减少3.05%，同比减少7.15%。（3）本周PVC生产 | | | | 企业检修损失量在4.155万吨，较上期增加0.57万吨。本周常规检修略有增加，检修损失量环比上周增加15.90% ...

2012 31 2026-01-26 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品再度上涨，工业品、农产品双双走高。主要原因，一是地缘风险升温，去美元化加速，黄金白银双双大幅飙涨，带动有色板块纷纷走升；二是， | | | 反内卷预期再度升温，新能源金属板块再度大涨；三是，寒潮来临，能源价格大幅走高，推动能化板块反弹。 | | 海外 | 1）美国12月成屋签约销售指数环比大跌9.3%至71.8，同比下跌1.3%，不仅显著低于预期的下跌0.3%，更创下2020年4月疫情以来最大降幅，同时也是2001年有 | | | 数据记录以来12月同期最大跌幅。一方面，库存不足问题持续凸显，可售房源难以恢复至疫情前水平，制约市场交易活力；另一方面，受日本债市下跌及地缘政 | | | 治紧张影响，美国国债收益率已升至数月高位，而国债走势直接关联房贷成本，未来房贷利率上行风险将进一步抑制购房需求。2）特朗普透露美联储新主席候选 | | | 人已缩减至两位，其心中或仅剩一位，未披露具体人选，仅称贝莱德高管Rick Ri ...