| CTERRE | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 日度策略参 发布日期: 2025 | | 从业资格号:F025 以 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 短期内,市场成交量逐步小幅萎缩,加上国内外利多因素平平, | | | | 農物 | 股指向上突破存在阻力,或呈现震荡格局,后续关注宏观增量信 息对股指方向的指引。。 到 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国 | 震荡 | 空间。 | | | 百金 | | 6月非农强劲打压降息预期,或压制金价;但关税政策和税改法案 | | | | 黑汤 | 等不确定性较高,则支撑金价。 | | | 日银 | 看多 | 宏观和商品属性仍对银价有支撑,短期或偏强运行。 | | | 名词 | 震荡 | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,但海外挤仓风险仍存在,铜 价或震荡运行。 | | | | | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | | 氧化铝 | 看空 | 美国非农大超预期 ...

盖色金属数据日报 7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 400 3000 2000 1000 -200 螺纹基差(石轴) = 价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上 - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢 8000 800 600 6000 400 200 2000 -200 60-6700 10-570 as 2008 2008 2008 200 | 热卷基差(右轴) = 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 75r 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 -500 焦煤基差(右轴) 5000 800 【钢材】续涨动能尚可,周数据好转也添了一点油 4000 600 周四黑色板块依然算是坚挺,盘面延续增仓反弹,期盘续涨动能尚可;钢联周度数据显示淡季累库幅度和需求掉的节奏都没 3000 有失速,暂时托住了市场的信心。"反内卷"的导火线带来资金的跟随,期现正套以及前期反套被空单可能会带来短期现货 400 成交及投机需求的放量,观察持续性;我们更倾向于若短期未看到实质性政策出台,则对利润的利好影响及成材价格的独自 2000 利好并不能持续太久。值得关注的是,黑色板块品种的基差近期持续收缩, ...

2025/7/4 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG 国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号:F03110419 | | 水平;未来两周美豆天气无明显异常;需求方面,从存档推断,生猪供应在11月前预期稳步增加;禽类存栏维持高位;豆粕性价比较 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 高，饲用添比提升，提货居于高位：部分地区小麦替代玉米，减少对蛋白的用量。库存方面，截至上周五，国内大豆和豆粕继续累库, | | | | 目前大豆库存居于历史同期高位,豆粕库存仍然居于历史同期低位,饲料企业豆粕库存天数继续上升。 | | | 结 | 整体来说,中美贸易谈判预期下,美豆偏强,巴西贴水小幅下跌。国内部分油厂出现催提现象,基差偏弱。屈期关注中美贸易谈判 | | | | 进展,建议观望。 | | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求推确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 | | | ਜੇ | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者带殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。投资者需自行判断本报告中10任 ...

利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 61596 生产利 用 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -355 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 66176 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6447 行业 津巴布韦将从 2027 年起禁止锂精矿出口。根据路透社，2025年6月10日，津巴布韦矿业部长温斯顿·奇坦多（Winston Chitando）周二表示 巴布韦将从2027年起禁止锂精矿出口，以进一步推动本地加工。作为非洲顶级的锂生产国，津巴布韦已于2022年禁止了锂矿石的 推动矿商在国内进行更多加工。 主要 价格下方主要靠下游采买支撑，但正极厂、电池厂7月排产增幅较小，采买力量主要靠贸易商发力，空间有限。另外，由于价格反弹，7月供给 噜产幅度较大，供过于求的格局加深，拖累价格上行，且矿石端也未现减产迹象。预计随着采买节奏放缓。碳酸锂期价下行压力将加剧 x 点 责 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国贸 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market's funding situation remained loose on Thursday, with overnight rates oscillating at a low level around 1.36%. The 7 - day weighted average rate dropped 3.79bp to 1.4674%. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to stay loose due to external uncertainties from trade frictions, but the scope for further loosening of the funding situation is limited as long - term bond yields are relatively low and the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has risen above 108% [4]. - The stock index continued to fluctuate and rise. The US - Vietnam trade agreement may have a negative impact on China's re - export trade, while the lifting of export restrictions on China by three US chip design software suppliers will boost the relevant A - share electronics sector. In the short term, the stock index may present a volatile pattern due to shrinking trading volume and lackluster domestic and foreign positive factors. In the long term, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Additionally, the uncertain US tariff policy, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.51, down 4.43bp; DR007 at 1.91, down 3.79bp; GC001 at 1.15, down 20.00bp; GC007 at 1.49, down 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.61, down 1.35bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34, down 0.50bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.49, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65, up 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.30, up 4.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5093 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4521 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 3968, up 0.62%; SSE 50 at 2725, up 0.07%; CSI 500 at 5923, up 0.50%; CSI 1000 at 6343, up 0.53%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 13098 billion yuan, a decrease of 672 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with consumer electronics, biopharmaceuticals, electronic components, chemical pharmaceuticals, batteries, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors leading the gains, while shipbuilding and mining sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 closed at 3947, up 0.7%; IH当月 at 2708, up 0.2%; IC当月 at 5874, up 0.3%; IM当月 at 6279, up 0.3%. IF trading volume was 73590, up 3.9%, and its open interest was 238967, down 0.2%; IH trading volume was 34173, down 8.3%, and its open interest was 80640, down 2.3%; IC trading volume was 64956, down 0.8%, and its open interest was 220451, up 0.7%; IM trading volume was 162960, down 1.7%, and its open interest was 321768, up 0.8% [5]. - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF升贴水 was 13.16% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - quarter contract, 5.90% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.85% for the next - month contract; IH升贴水 was 1.87% for the current - month contract; IC升贴水 was 14.74% for the current - month contract, 12.12% for the next - quarter contract, 10.16% for the current - quarter contract, and 19.99% for the next - month contract; IM升贴水 was 13.19% for the current - month contract, 15.26% for the next - quarter contract, 24.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 18.07% for the next - month contract [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On July 3, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5306, up 0.42% day - on - day and 0.80% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5048, up 0.76% day - on - day and down 0.24% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5094, up 0.43% day - on - day and 0.55% week - on - week [1] - Spot prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.84% week - on - week; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4020, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.74% week - on - week [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes (in dollars): Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In May 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353, down 30.80% month - on - month [1] - On June 20, Arauco cut the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) for June by $20/ton to $720/ton, and the shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period, down 2.0% [1] - The delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons [1] Demand - This week, the production of major finished papers decreased, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On July 3, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 26, at the 0.756 quantile; the Silver Star basis was 806, at the 0.951 quantile [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, at the 0.65 quantile; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, at the 0.187 quantile [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | 聚酯数据日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/7/4 | | 能源化工研究中心 | | | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/3 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | 8.10 | INE原油(元/桶) SC | 498. 2 | 506. 3 | | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,盘中原油行情偏弱震荡,或担忧 | | 1066. 7 | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1173.5 | | -106. 86 | 下游减产,PTA现货市场气氛不佳,市场递盘基差偏 低,现货基差继续走弱。 | | -0. 0342 | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3241 | 1. 2899 | | | | CFR中国PX | | 854 | 849 | -5 | | | 283 | PX PX-石脑油价差 | | 277 | -7 | | | PT ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 一 国贸 期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 专播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法 险,入市需谨慎。 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 47. 00% 63.00% 16. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67. 00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始第■ (零收) 配日员(左特) t325年滚纱价格 ■ 1.4D直红杀短 震想规金流 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 Ta 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 - 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, gold prices are restricted by improved market risk appetite due to trade agreements and export restrictions relief. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties and the potential passage of the Trump administration's bill, gold prices are expected to oscillate. Silver prices break through the $87 per ounce mark but may not continue unilateral upward movement because of the impact on interest - rate cut expectations. In the long - term, considering the trade war background, possible Fed rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **内外盘金/银15点价格**: On July 3, 2025, London gold spot was $3362.28 per ounce, London silver spot was $36.76 per ounce, COMEX gold was $3372.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver was $37.03 per ounce. Compared with July 2, gold prices rose by about 0.9% and silver prices by about 2.2% - 2.4%. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed varying degrees of increase [5]. - **价差/比价跟踪**: As of July 3, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was -$1.92 per gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was -$20 per kilogram. Compared with July 2, the gold spread decreased by 19.0% and the silver spread increased by 53.8%. The gold and silver price ratios also changed to different extents [5]. Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 2, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 14846.12421 tons. COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions also changed compared with July 1, with some positions showing a decline [5]. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On July 3, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 18456.00 kilograms, showing no change compared with July 2, and SHFE silver inventory was 1340792.00 kilograms, up 0.16%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.20% [5]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - **Rates and Indexes**: On July 3, 2025, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, down 0.03% compared with July 2. The dollar index was 96.78, up 0.14%. Other rates such as the 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYMEX crude oil also showed different percentage changes [5]. Market News - **Trade and Policy News**: Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, with Vietnam imposing tariffs on exports to the US and opening its market. The US lifted export restrictions on Chinese chip design software and removed a restrictive license requirement for ethane exports to China. The Trump administration's "big and beautiful" bill advanced in the House of Representatives. US economic data such as non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and factory orders were released, and the US Treasury Secretary hinted at possible Fed rate cuts [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GER期货 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 | | 2025/7/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | '三三 | 现值 | 1862 | 1369 | 2578 | 161 d | 4717 | 2030 | | Alle | 前值 | 1870 | 1342 | 2772 | 2083 | 5352 | 1835 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -0.43% | 2.00% | -7.00% | -22.28% | -11.86% | 10.63% | | ព្ | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | ...