投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 10 47 万吨（ 1 08% ），产能利用率为 67 37 %；高顺顺丁产量 3 00 万吨（ 5 88% ），产能利用率为 74 69 %； | | 供给 | 偏空 | （2）周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、吉林石化一期、抚顺石化等装置维持停车状态，广州石化、镇海炼化、北方华锦装置停车检修，但同时中韩武 | | | | 汉和福建联合装置恢复，影响国内产量略有提升；顺丁橡胶：齐鲁石化顺丁橡胶装置短停检修，山东益华、山东威特顺丁橡胶装置投料重启。 | | | | （1）半钢胎市场方面，本周期恰逢"双节"假期，私家车出行增多，对终端需求形成提振，终端门店出货增加明显，渠道货源流通增加，周期内市场成 | | 需求 | 中性 | 交价格稳定；（2）全钢胎市场方面，本周期因"双节"假期因素，市场多数商家有短期放假情况，渠道成交量减少，多数商家消化库存为主，补货后延。 | | | | 假期期间，货车高速限行，物流短暂放假停运现象较多，全钢胎终端需求表现偏弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :现货价格持稳，盘面震荡偏强 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周我国LLDPE产量总计在31.89吨，较上周上涨3.21%。（2）本周中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率83.95%，较上周期增加了1.86百分点。本周期装 | | | | 置情况来看，周内暂无新增检修装置，且前期部分存量装置于周内重启，因此产能利用率有所提升。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期+1.64%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期+2.75%；PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.52%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游 制品平均开工率较前期+0.24。其中农膜整体开工率较前期+2.75%；PE管 ...

| 11 | 无法采购美豆。明年一季度的豆粕供应仍需补充，补充来源暂不确定。需求方面,畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，支撑饲用需求,但目前养 | | --- | --- | | | 殖利润呈现亏损，国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重。或影响远月供应;豆相性价比较高，伺用添比较高;下游现货成交表现良好。库 | | 结 | 存方面,国内大豆库存增至高位;本周油厂豆粕库存略降，目前库存处于高位水平，饲料企业豆粗库存天数上升。宏观及政策方面，交 | | | 通运输部发布自10月14日起对美船舶收取船舶特别选择费的公告,预期抬升部分大豆进口成本和海运费,特朗普宣布自2025年11月1日起 | | | 对中国进口商品加征100%关税,中美贸易紧张局势再度升级。 | | | 整体来说，短期001受中美贸易战升级影响或有一定反弹，但反弹高度仍受限于市场对于中美贸易政策的不确定性和国内豆相库存高 | | | 企的现实,后期建议关注中美政策、南美拉尼娜天气炒作及美豆单产调整情况。 | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸纲货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整胜做任何保证。本报告不构 | | से | 成个人投资建议,也 ...

Report Title - [New Energy Weekly Report] [1] Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Nonferrous Metals Research Center [2] - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling [2] - Assistant Analyst: Chen Yusen [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The polysilicon market has an "anti - involution" policy framework, and the fundamentals may improve in the medium to long term, but prices may fluctuate in the short term. The lithium carbonate market has strong terminal demand, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [8][9][86] Summary by Directory 1. Nonferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The report monitors the closing prices of various nonferrous metals and new energy products, including the US dollar index, exchange rates, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, etc. For example, the current value of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6] 2. Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 95,500 tons, a decrease of 0.81% from the previous week. The number of open furnaces is 313, an increase of 3 from the previous week. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month and a 7.33% decrease from the same period last year. October production is planned to be 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from the previous month and a 2.84% decrease from the same period last year [8] - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly production is 32,000 tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Organic silicon DMC weekly production is 47,600 tons, a 1.04% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: The visible inventory is 693,900 tons, a 0.86% decrease from the previous week, with year - on - year growth of 23.18%. The industry inventory is 442,500 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, a 0.07% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 133 yuan, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - **Investment View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and the price may fluctuate [8] Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase from the previous week. August production was 131,700 tons, a 23.31% increase from the previous month and a 2.41% increase from the same period last year. September production is planned to be 126,700 tons, a 3.80% decrease from the previous month and a 2.69% decrease from the same period last year [9] - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 13.65GW, a 0.27% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory is 16.60GW, a 0.45% increase from the previous week [9] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 25,390 tons, a 4.83% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 24,420 tons, a 3.30% increase from the previous week [9] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,543 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,057 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week [9] - **Investment View**: The "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price" policy framework may improve the fundamentals of polysilicon in the medium to long term. Due to the long - term non - implementation of "anti - involution", market sentiment has subsided, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [9] 3. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. September production was 87,300 tons, a 2.37% increase from the previous month and a 52.00% increase from the same period last year. October production is planned to be about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from the previous month and a 50.78% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month and a 23.54% increase from the same period last year. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month and a 33.13% decrease from the same period last year [86] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,100 tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 18,800 tons, a 0.48% increase from the previous week [86] - **Terminal Demand**: In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a 11.91% increase from the previous month and a 27.40% increase from the same period last year; the sales volume was 1.3953 million, a 10.55% increase from the previous month and a 26.84% increase from the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative winning bid power of domestic energy storage was 41.09GW/111.43GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 134,800 tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous week. The lithium salt factory inventory is 34,700 tons, a 4.85% decrease from the previous week [86] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external purchase is 77,806 yuan/ton, a 1.17% decrease from the previous week; the production profit is - 7,315 yuan/ton, an increase of 727 yuan/ton from the previous week [86] - **Investment View**: In the short term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, pushing up prices. In the medium to long term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [86]

分析师：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 助理分析师：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本周能化大宗产品收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | | | | | 能化产品收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | | | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | | 年涨跌幅 | | 周价格走势 | | 美元兑人民币汇率 | 元 | 7 1048 . | -0 . | 08% | | 0 . | 05% | 0 . | 46% | | 天然橡胶 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇周报（MA）】 港口库存高位，需求疲软 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：港口库存高位，需求疲软 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 本周国内甲醇供给呈增加态势。装置检修恢复量多于损失量，产能利用率上升；周产量、总供应量环比增长。进口资源充足，进口量环比大幅增加，且港口因内外轮卸船等因 | | | | 素库存累积，整体供给端压力有所显现。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 节后传统下游备货节奏放缓，部分内地烯烃装置重启，需求逐步恢复。但节前下游备货因国庆假期早早收尾，节后企业新签订单有限，待发订单大幅减少。MTO 消费量小幅增 | | | | 加，总消费量环比增长，不过需求增量整体小于供应端增量，供需格局仍偏宽松。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 本周甲醇库存呈分化态势。港口库存因节后内外轮显性卸货量计入 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 中美贸易摩擦再升级，贵金属或延续偏强运行 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-13 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | ◆ 上周黄金白银冲高回落，但周线仍大幅上涨。主要影响因素分析如下：国庆假期，因美国联 | | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 邦政府时隔7年再度"停摆"、法国日本政治不确定提升等大幅提升市场避险情绪，与此同时，美 | | | | | | | | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4017.845 | 3885.660 | 132.185 | 3.40% | | 国9月ADP数据不及预期和市场担忧美国政府停摆将增加经济走弱风险，强化美联储10月降息预期， | 沪金主力 | ...

·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2023- 2025- 2025- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2024-10 2025-08 05 09 01 02 09 01 05 09 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 ·DTY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2025- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2023- 02 09 01 02 09 01 05 0მ 01 -800 投资咨询业务资 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - Market competition intensifies, crude oil prices drop significantly, PX market trading is sluggish with prices plummeting, and polyester downstream procurement halts [2] - Asian naphtha cracking runs smoothly, the spread between MX and naphtha narrows from $88/ton last week to $85/ton, and the spread between PX and MX drops to $132, supporting PX short - process profit [2] - The US - Asia MX arbitrage window widens to $185, but there is no news of shipments from South Korea to the US [2] - Domestic large - scale PTA plants conduct rotational inspections, PTA production in China declines, PTA basis in China weakens, and demand is stable [2] - Polyester's operating load rebounds to 91%, PTA performs weakly due to weak crude oil, and bottle chips and short fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2] Group 2: Price and Index Changes PTA and MEG - PTA spot price drops from 4500 to 4490, a decrease of 10; PTA closing price drops from 4584 to 4534, a decrease of 50 [2] - MEG domestic price drops from 4224 to 4206, a decrease of 18; MEG closing price drops from 4158 to 4100, a decrease of 58 [2] Short Fibers - 1.4D direct - spun polyester short fiber price drops from 6460 to 6425, a decrease of 35; short - fiber basis increases from 137 to 165, an increase of 28 [2] - 11 - 12 spread drops from 60 to 38, a decrease of 22; polyester short - fiber cash flow increases from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] Bottle Chips - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market range from 5700 - 5840 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 25 yuan/ton from the previous workday [2] - Various types of bottle chips (e.g., East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips) see price drops of 23 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee drops from 503 to 495, a decrease of 8.42 [2] Others - T32S pure polyester yarn price remains at 10300, T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increases from 3840 to 3875, an increase of 35 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remains at 16350, polyester - cotton yarn profit increases from 1586 to 1609, an increase of 23.21 [2] Group 3: Operating Load and Sales - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) drops from 94.40% to 93.90%, a decrease of 0.01 [3] - Polyester short - fiber sales rate drops from 67.00% to 66.00%, a decrease of 1.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remains at 63.50% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) increases from 51.00% to 51.50%, an increase of 0.01 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch that could push up prices, but in the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged. The increase in overall supply is the main factor suppressing futures prices. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the independent energy storage economy is emerging due to the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of spot price differences, with strong installation demand indicated by increased tender volumes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 73,550 yuan/ton with no change, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,300 yuan/ton with no change. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Futures prices of various lithium carbonate contracts are as follows: Li2510 closed at 72,700 yuan/ton with a - 0.47% change; Li2511 at 72,740 yuan/ton with a - 1.3% change; Li2512 at 72,960 yuan/ton with a - 1.11% change; Li2601 at 72,900 yuan/ton with a - 1% change; Li2602 at 72,900 yuan/ton with a - 0.57% change [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is priced at 839 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. Lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,810 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. Phosphorus - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O:6% - 7%) is 6,050 yuan/ton, and (Li2O:7% - 8%) is 7,150 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640 yuan/ton. The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 153,100 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 124,400 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 130,450 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton. The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract product is 810 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton. The difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 220 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 160 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons. Smelter inventory (weekly, tons) data is not provided. Downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 59,765 tons, down 1,128 tons. Other inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,290 tons, down 2,150 tons. Registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) are 42,669 tons, up 290 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 1,590 yuan/ton. The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 77,139 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 6,648 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - Chinese researchers have solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. A research team has developed an anion regulation technology, and the relevant research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3]