1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - fiber: Short - term sideways market, medium - term weakening. The current situation shows a continuation of upstream - downstream contradictions, with short - term high - level sideways trends. The actual output of short - fiber has increased, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued [3][8]. - Bottle chips: Sideways with a weakening tendency. There is also a continuation of upstream - downstream contradictions, short - term high - level sideways. The actual supply of bottle chips in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually improve from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [2][10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Short - fiber (PF) 3.1.1 This Week's View - Supply: Factory operating rates have increased to 98.5%. Some factories plan to shut down before the Spring Festival, mostly around the end of January [8]. - Demand: Domestic terminal orders are weakening, and the yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are reducing their loads. Terminal restocking increased during the low - price promotions last weekend, but overall sales were weak during the week. Short - fiber has a nominal inventory reduction but a physical inventory build - up, with the inventory index rising to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [8]. - View: The upstream - downstream contradictions continue, and it will be in a short - term high - level sideways trend. The short - fiber and bottle chips have followed the price increases in a timely manner, and the processing margins on the futures market have not been compressed to near the cost. Although some factories have announced production cuts, there are no unexpected developments. The actual output of short - fiber has increased, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued [8]. 3.1.2 Valuation and Strategy - Valuation: The current spot premium is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the processing margin on the futures market is 1000 yuan/ton, which is relatively high [9]. - Strategy: No unilateral strategy; for inter - period trading, observe long spreads at low prices and enter when the valuation is reasonable; continue to hold the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF [9]. 3.2 Bottle chips (PR) 3.2.1 This Week's View - Supply: The average operating rate this week is expected to reach 82.2%. Factory operating rates have increased again, with new production from a 300,000 - ton new device of Fuhai. Overall operating rates may start to decline in late January [10]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased month - on - month. The average operating rate of beverage factories has rebounded to around 70%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet material sectors have also increased. Exports from November to December are expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons. Factories have reduced their inventories to around 13 days [10]. - View: The upstream - downstream contradictions continue, and it will be in a short - term high - level sideways trend. The supply of bottle chips in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually improve from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [10]. 3.2.2 Valuation and Strategy - Valuation: The spot processing margin is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is neutral; the 02 - 03 processing margin is also 400 - 450 yuan/ton, neutral [10]. - Strategy: No unilateral strategy; for inter - period trading, take profit on short spreads and consider light - position long spreads for contracts after March; no cross - variety strategy [10]. 3.3 New Capacity and Supply - Demand Outlook - **Bottle chips in 2026**: The planned new capacity is relatively small, with only a 400,000 - ton device of Kesen and the remaining 300,000 tons of Fuhai, with a total capacity increase of 700,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 3.2%. The profit trend is expected to recover [11]. - **Short - fiber in 2026**: The capacity growth rate is relatively high, with two main devices: a 250,000 - ton device of Hengyi Yida and a 550,000 - ton device of Xin Fengming, with a capacity growth rate of 8.7%. This may also put pressure on non - standard price differentials [14]. 3.4 Market Conditions and Related Indicators - **Bottle chips**: - Price: The price has been rising, with an average weekly quotation of 6035 yuan/ton, and the average FOB price is 795 US dollars/ton [25]. - Basis and monthly spreads: The price has corrected from a high level, the basis has significantly recovered, the near - month monthly spreads are still affected by deliverable goods, and the far - end structure is gradually strengthening [22]. - Production and operating rates: The current effective capacity has reached 2.168 billion tons (CCF caliber), and after the commissioning of the Fuhai device, the capacity will increase to 2.198 billion tons. The operating rate of bottle chips this week is expected to rise to 82.2% [33]. - Raw materials: The PTA operating rate is low, and the processing margin has slightly recovered; the ethylene glycol operating rate has rebounded to a high level, and port inventories are increasing [34][42]. - Costs and profits: The polymerization cost is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, the bottle chip processing margin is passively compressed, and the export profit is about 725 - 750 yuan/ton [44]. - Inventories: The inventory pressure of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is neutral, with inventories at around 13 days (CCF caliber), and the estimated social inventory in November is 3.23 million tons and 3.44 million tons in December [49]. - Device changes: Pay attention to the commissioning rhythm of new devices. In December, the operating rate increased. Some devices are planned for maintenance in January and are expected to restart in March [55]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased month - on - month. The operating rates of beverage, edible oil, and sheet material sectors have all shown an upward trend, but the overall demand for beverages and edible oil is still relatively weak [59][67][68]. - Exports: In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 658,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to November 2025, the total export volume was 7.088 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [82]. - **Short - fiber**: - Valuation: The basis has generally recovered, the monthly structure is in contango, and the near - month contracts are gradually flattening. The processing margin on the futures market is relatively low [95][99]. - Operating rates: Short - fiber factory operating rates are high, currently at 98.5% [105]. - Inventories: Polyester product inventories are generally at a low level, and short - fiber inventories have increased slightly, with the inventory index rising to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [8][109]. - Exports: In November, polyester exports increased year - on - year but showed a differentiated performance month - on - month. Short - fiber direct exports are expected to remain strong [113][15]. - Profits: The profits of long - fiber and chip sectors are weak, and losses are intensifying [117]. - Downstream: The operating rate of polyester yarn has decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventories are gradually increasing. The weaving operating rate has also decreased slightly [124][126]. 3.5 Textile and Apparel Market - **Retail**: In November 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [135]. - **Exports**: In November 2025, textile and apparel exports decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was 174.919 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [143][147].

本周甲醇总结：短期偏强 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251226-20260101)中国甲醇产量为2051065吨，较上周减少15110吨，装置产能利用率为90.31%，环比跌0.73%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量205.11万吨左右，产能利用率90.31% | | | | 左右，较本期微涨。下周计划计划恢复涉及产能多于检修及减产涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率提升，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • • | 烯烃：华东MTO企业负荷仍有降低，青海盐湖MTO装置计划重启，行业开工预期看涨。 传统下游：二甲醚下周，场内装置延续前期停车，其他装置暂无调整预期，预计供应继续减量，整体产能利用率或较上期下降。冰醋酸河南顺达预计恢 | | 需求 | | 复满产，若无其他装置意外故障，预计下周产能利用率窄幅走高。甲醛下周，宁夏及陕西部分装置存停车计划，随着元旦过后环保管控进入尾声，部分 装置存重启预期，预计下周供应减量，产能利用率或将继续下降。氯化物下周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term central price of synthetic rubber will move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term [2][4]. - The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be bullish, but it still faces high supply pressure in the medium term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons compared to the expected output in December 2025. One set of equipment with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year is planned for maintenance in the next month. The only established maintenance plan is for Maoming Petrochemical, and some other equipment maintenance plans may be cancelled. Dushanzi Petrochemical's 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant is planned to be shut down throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of the cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the upper limit of the static valuation is invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation instead of the cost side [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue to be weak from December 26, 2025 to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged routine maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and production scheduling at the end of the month decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, resulting in a slight decline in the overall capacity utilization rate [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. The price of cis - butadiene rubber increased due to cost support. The bullish mid - term market outlook in January boosted the enthusiasm of some traders, and with the impact of a small amount of stockpiling before the New Year's Day holiday, some production enterprises significantly destocked, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term trading range will move up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread will gradually narrow [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The weekly output in the next week is expected to be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7]. Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, so the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants decreases, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [9]. - ABS has high inventory pressure, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - The operating rate of SBS has slightly increased, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene with little change [9]. Inventory - From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 0.13% compared to the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.58% compared to the previous week, while the port inventory increased by 3.23% compared to the previous week. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamental Analysis - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To meet the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, the butadiene industry is in a state of continuous expansion, and its expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14][16]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Analysis Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - The output and operating rate data of cis - butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations over the years [47]. - The cost, profit, and gross margin of cis - butadiene rubber production also fluctuate over time [49][50][51]. - The import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years. The weekly apparent demand also fluctuates [53][54][55]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory, shows different trends over time [59][61]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - The inventory and operating rate of tires, an important downstream product of cis - butadiene rubber, also show different trends over the years [63][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the performance of CSI 300 Index Option strategies this week, the short straddle strategy led with a 0.21% return. In the SSE 50 ETF Option strategies, the straddle statistical arbitrage strategy led with a 0.28% return. In the CSI 1000 Index Option strategies, the straddle statistical arbitrage strategy led with a 0.25% return [2]. - From the beginning of 2025 to now, the benchmark performed best in all three option markets. Among option strategies, the short put strategy led in the CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETF option markets, while in the CSI 1000 Index Option market, the short put strategy also performed well [7][11][15]. - Three option hedging strategies (covered call, protective put, and collar) can effectively reduce the benchmark's drawdown. Three option volatility trading strategies (straddle statistical arbitrage, short straddle, and short maximum - position wide straddle) can reduce the strategy's drawdown by adding threshold limits in the implied volatility clustering dimension [7][11][15]. - In the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 Index Option markets, the short straddle strategy has a greater Theta value and can obtain higher returns compared to the short maximum - position wide straddle strategy in a downward - moving volatility market. In the SSE 50 ETF Option market, the short maximum - position wide straddle strategy performs relatively better [7][11][15]. - The bull call spread strategy has stronger returns than the benchmark in all three option markets and can reduce the maximum drawdown because it can avoid tail risks and reduce losses in a falling market [7][12][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 CSI 300 Index Option Strategy Review - Back - tested eight common strategies against the benchmark (CSI 300 Index Futures main contract). This week, the short straddle strategy led with a 0.21% return. From the beginning of 2025 to now, the benchmark performed best with a 27.15% return, and the short put strategy led among option strategies with a 19.11% return [5][6][7]. - Three option hedging strategies effectively reduced the benchmark's drawdown. Three option volatility trading strategies reduced the strategy's drawdown and achieved different cumulative returns. The short straddle strategy had better returns than the short maximum - position wide straddle strategy in a downward - moving volatility market. The bull call spread strategy had stronger returns than the benchmark and reduced the maximum drawdown [7]. 3.1.2 SSE 50 ETF Option Strategy - Back - tested eight common strategies against the benchmark (50ETF). This week, the straddle statistical arbitrage strategy led with a 0.28% return. From the beginning of 2025 to now, the benchmark performed best with a 19.51% return, and the short put strategy led among option strategies with a 19.21% return [8][10][11]. - Three option hedging strategies reduced the benchmark's drawdown. Three option statistical arbitrage strategies reduced the strategy's drawdown and achieved different cumulative returns. The short maximum - position wide straddle strategy performed relatively better than the short straddle strategy [11]. - The bull call spread strategy had stronger returns than the benchmark and reduced the maximum drawdown [12]. 3.1.3 CSI 1000 Index Option Strategy - Back - tested eight common strategies against the benchmark (CSI 1000 Index Futures main contract). This week, the straddle statistical arbitrage strategy led with a 0.25% return. From the beginning of 2025 to now, the benchmark performed best with a 47.08% return, and the short put strategy led among option strategies with a 28.48% return [13][15][17]. - Three option hedging strategies effectively reduced the benchmark's drawdown. Three option volatility trading strategies reduced the strategy's drawdown and achieved different cumulative returns. The short straddle strategy had better returns than the short maximum - position wide straddle strategy [15]. - The bull call spread strategy had stronger returns than the benchmark and reduced the maximum drawdown [16]. 3.2 Specific Strategy Descriptions 3.2.1 Covered Call Strategy - It is used to enhance returns, commonly used by overseas mutual funds. In the SSE 50 ETF, it involves buying 1 share of 50ETF and selling 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money call option. In the CSI 300 Index Option, it involves buying 1 CSI 300 Index Futures main contract and selling 3 shares of a 4% out - of - the - money call option [18][21]. 3.2.2 Short Put Strategy - A one - way seller strategy, gaining mainly in a sideways or rising market. In the SSE 50 ETF, it involves short - selling an at - the - money put option. In the CSI 300 Index Option, it also involves short - selling an at - the - money put option [24][26]. 3.2.3 Protective Put Strategy - A protective hedging strategy. In the SSE 50 ETF, it involves buying 1 share of 50ETF and 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money put option. In the CSI 300 Index Option, it involves buying 1 CSI 300 Index Futures main contract and 3 shares of a 4% out - of - the - money put option [28][29][31]. 3.2.4 Collar Strategy - A neutral strategy, a combination of covered call and protective put. In the SSE 50 ETF, it involves holding 1 share of 50ETF, buying 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money put option, and selling 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money call option. In the CSI 300 Index Option, it involves holding 1 CSI 300 Index Futures main contract, buying 3 shares of a 4% out - of - the - money put option, and selling 3 shares of a 4% out - of - the - money call option [33][35]. 3.2.5 Straddle Statistical Arbitrage Strategy - Based on the relationship between implied and historical volatility. In the SSE 50 ETF, when the difference between implied and historical volatility is greater than 1.5%, short volatility; when it is less than - 1.5%, long volatility. In the CSI 300 Index Option, the thresholds are 3% and - 3% respectively [40][41][43]. 3.2.6 Short Straddle Strategy - A short - volatility strategy. In both the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 Index Option, it involves selling at - the - money call and put options of the same month. Adjust positions when the at - the - money price or the main contract changes, and close positions when the implied volatility change rate is greater than 10% [44][45][47]. 3.2.7 Short Maximum - Position Wide Straddle Strategy - Based on the maximum - position strike prices. In the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 Index Option, sell the maximum - position call and put options of the same month. Adjust positions when the maximum - position price or the main contract changes, and close positions when the implied volatility change rate is greater than 10% [49][50][52]. 3.2.8 Bull Call Spread Strategy - A low - cost long - call strategy. In the SSE 50 ETF, buy an at - the - money call option and sell a 10% out - of - the - money call option. In the CSI 300 Index Option, buy an at - the - money call option and sell a 4% out - of - the - money call option [55][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report's Core View - The paper pulp market is expected to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend in the short term, with supply pressure from high port inventories and weak demand in the downstream raw paper market. The market lacks a breakthrough driver, and a weak balance has formed between long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the update of foreign offers and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [93]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 548,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous period, a 17.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a 1.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Gaolan Port was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease [5][6]. - In November 2025, the European port pulp inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.80% year - on - year; the global pulp outbound volume decreased by 3.61% month - on - month and 6.90% year - on - year [48]. - In late December 2025, domestic white cardboard and food packaging paper industries started a price - repair process. Leading paper enterprises such as Bohui and APP announced price increases starting from January 2026, with the main product of white cardboard increasing by 200 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Basis and Spread - On December 31, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 68 yuan/ton, a 326.67% month - on - month increase and an 85.09% year - on - year decrease; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 132 yuan/ton, a 42.61% month - on - month increase and a 200.00% year - on - year decrease; the silver star - Russian needle spread was 200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a 60.00% year - on - year decrease [14]. - On December 31, 2025, the 01 - 03 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a 25.00% month - on - month decrease; the 03 - 05 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 5.88% month - on - month increase [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - On December 31, 2025, the silver star - goldfish spread was 900 yuan/ton, a 3.23% month - on - month decrease and a 45.45% year - on - year decrease; the Russian needle - goldfish spread was 700 yuan/ton, a 4.11% month - on - month decrease and a 39.13% year - on - year decrease [25]. - On December 31, 2025, the import profit of silver star pulp was - 39.78 yuan/ton, a 12.22% month - on - month increase and a 29.55% year - on - year increase; the import profit of star pulp was 92.75 yuan/ton, a 59.25% month - on - month increase and a 39.14% year - on - year decrease [28]. - The price of domestic coniferous pulp remained stable last week, with weak demand and light actual - order transactions. The price of imported broad - leaf pulp was supported by tight supply and cost, and traders were holding prices [30][32]. 3.3.2 Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China remained stable last week [39]. - The price of domestic broad - leaf pulp increased this period. In November 2025, the European paper pulp port inventory and the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline [43][48]. - In October 2025, the W20 coniferous pulp shipment was at a low level with high inventory; the broad - leaf pulp inventory was at a high level, but the shipment decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [50]. - In November 2025, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year. In September 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China increased month - on - month and year - on - year [53][56]. - In November 2025, the export volume of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month, and the export volumes of Uruguay and Chile decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [59]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with coniferous pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and broad - leaf pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [62]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of domestic offset paper remained stable last week, with stable production by large - scale paper enterprises, limited enthusiasm of dealers for purchasing, and weak social demand [66]. - The domestic coated paper market was mainly in a narrow - range adjustment last period, with poor order - receiving by paper mills, some reducing production, and weak social demand [70]. - The price of white cardboard remained stable last period, with increased production. Large - scale paper mills supported the market, and terminal orders were scattered [74]. - The price increase of the household paper market slowed down last week, with stable supply, downstream processing plants purchasing on demand, and raw material price fluctuations slowing down [78]. - In November 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, catering revenue, and Chinese and Western medicines increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month [82]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of five ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 1.906 million tons, a 4.37% month - on - month decrease and a 2.64% year - on - year increase. The inventory in Qingdao Port and Changshu Port increased during the holiday as of January 4, 2026 [90][93].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：地缘政治刺激避险情绪；白银：高位回落，资金止盈离场 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落-2.85%，伦敦银回升2.82%。金银比从前周的64回落至58.37，10年期TIPS回升至1.94%，10年期名义利率回落至4.19% （2年期3.47%），美元指数录得98.45。 ◆ 假期前贵金属板块剧烈调整，年末和元旦前止盈盘大量离场，铂钯作为贵金属板块风险偏好的风向标，连续跌停也带崩白银表现。整体上我 们认为：1、现在盘面明显感觉到资金从贵金属撤退，做高切低。2、白银抢跑结束，后续继续上涨需要等待现实紧缺兑现，主要靠伦敦和中 国市场。3、白银会先降波，高位搭建震荡平台，等待后续20%的涨幅。 ◆ 然而理性来看，白银在26年的逻辑我们认为依旧未变。白银更大上涨风险在2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon inventory is accumulating, and the short - term supply has disturbance expectations. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut and price - support actions of upstream factories. It is expected that short - term emotional speculation may drive up the market, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels after a rebound and set a stop - profit at low levels, with the expected price range next week being 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon factories are recommended to conduct short - hedging [7][8][9] - The polysilicon market is in a state of high - level shock. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut situation of silicon material manufacturers in January. The market may focus on the improvement of supply - demand relationship brought about by production cuts. The expected price range next week is 55000 - 65000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from December 15, 2025, to December 31, 2025, including Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [11] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: In the short term, the weekly production of industrial silicon has a slight month - on - month increase. The start - up in the southwest region has decreased due to the dry season, and the cost in the dry season is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton. In December, the production reduction in the southwest increased, and although some factories in Xinjiang resumed production, the overall production in December decreased month - on - month. The factories in Xinjiang also have heat - preservation measures, which marginally reduce the short - term supply [3] - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.68 million tons, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.88 million tons. The current social inventory is 55.7 million tons, and the factory inventory is 20.2 million tons [3][12] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production of polysilicon decreased month - on - month. In December, some manufacturers reduced production, but some also resumed production, with an estimated monthly output of 11.35 million tons. In January 2026, manufacturers are expected to cut production in an orderly manner to relieve high inventory. The current inventory of manufacturers has reached 30 million tons [4] - Demand: The weekly production scheduling of silicon wafers decreased month - on - month. In December, the production scheduling decreased due to the decline in terminal demand. The current silicon wafer inventory is at a relatively reasonable level, which supports the firm price of silicon wafers and is transmitted to the prices of downstream batteries and components [6] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Supply: The weekly production of silicone decreased this week, and some monomer plants continued to operate at a reduced load. Since December, silicone enterprises have cut production to support prices, but the actual sustainability remains to be verified [4] - Demand: Currently, it is the off - season for demand, and the silicone inventory is relatively high. The logic of price - support is difficult to be realized [4] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers make reasonable stockpiling of the industrial silicon market, with high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and strong wait - and - see sentiment at other times [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The current valuation is high, at the upper end of the range, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities starting next week [2][77]. - In the short - term, the market valuation is high. Due to factors such as styrene's export increase in January, Bohua device maintenance, and the re - mention of anti - involution, the prices of pure benzene and styrene rebounded rapidly. Currently, pure benzene is at the upper end of the range, and styrene's valuation is significantly high, with a risk - free arbitrage window open. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities [2][77]. - In the medium - term, PX - BZ should take short - term profit, the overseas oil - blending drive is weakening, and the domestic chemical fundamentals maintain high inventory pressure [2][77]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene domestic production: In December, 110,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, the maintenance volume remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a 45,000 - ton reduction due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance). Some Shandong local refineries will increase their loads after solving quota problems. In January, attention should be paid to the incremental pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang project [2][75]. - Pure benzene imports: The external market pressure remains high. South Korea's pure benzene selling pressure was high from November to December, and imports remain high. In January, there are significant differences in import expectations, with an expected high import volume of about 450,000 tons, and the imports after February are to be evaluated [2][75]. - Styrene: In December, 85,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 65,000 tons were under maintenance. After December, the device operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the incremental production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's device [2][75]. Demand - Caprolactam: CPL negative feedback has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. In December, 40,000 tons of maintenance are expected, and in January, 60,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the devices [2][75]. - Phenol: The operation is gradually picking up. In December, 30,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 10,000 tons. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new device may be postponed [2][75]. - Aniline: In December, 70,000 tons were under maintenance, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some devices extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [2][76]. - Styrene downstream 3S hard plastics: Terminal home appliances are gradually entering the year - end procurement season, and demand has slightly recovered. However, 3S still faces high - inventory problems [2][76]. Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [2][77]. - EB processing fee: The profit will expand in the short - term [2][77]. Strategy - Single - side: Pay attention to shorting opportunities for BZ [2][77]. - Inter - period: None for now [77]. - Cross - variety: Take short - term profit for PX - BZ [2][77].

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：节前领衔有色板块上涨，伦敦盘假日续涨 ◆ 铝金属在节前一度领衔传统有色板块上涨，国内元旦休市期间伦敦盘亦收涨，预计明日国内小幅跳涨开盘。现阶段 铝现货端表现确实羸弱，但边际或已经触及较差状态，期现基差走阔引致的无风险套利空间大概率能使得元旦后现 货的基差贴水向上修复。在1季度权益市场若提前发动春季躁动行情，不排除再次引发股期联动的资金行为，资金轮 动配置行情下，铝金属向上空间仍值得期待。 ◆ 短期周度级别的微观需求上，表现偏弱。截至12月29日，铝锭社库较上周四累库2.6万吨至63.8万吨。截至12月31日， SMM华东现货贴水继续扩大至-210元/吨，华南现货贴水亦进一步扩大至-290元/吨。下游方面，截至1月1日铝板带 箔周度总产量环比继续回落，年初迄今累计同比下降-1.64%，降幅较前周温和收敛；截至12月31日，铝型材开工环 比上周回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for urea is volatile, while the medium - term central price is expected to rise [2]. - The fundamentals of urea have improved temporarily, with the driving force being neutral to slightly strong, but the strength is limited. The subsequent upward movement of the driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis (e.g., Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices [5][9][15][19] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 392 million tons, and in 2025, it was 664 million tons. There are also plans for new capacity in 2026 [23] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many enterprises had maintenance plans from November 2025 to January 2026, including Yangmei Fengxi, Linggu Chemical, etc., with reasons including routine maintenance and loss - based (cost) maintenance [25] Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level [26] Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. Cost calculations are provided for Shanxi fixed - bed factories, including coal - related costs, ammonia, and urea [29] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, with charts showing the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production methods [34][35] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies tightened. Historical monthly export data from 2018 - 2025 (E) are provided, and there are also charts showing export profits and export quantities [39][40][41] Domestic Demand Agricultural Rigid Demand - Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening, with different regions having different demand patterns according to crop types and growth stages. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [45][46][48] Industrial Rigid Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers [52][53][54] - **Melamine**: Charts show the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [57][58] - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient, with relevant export and real - estate data presented [59][60] Inventory - On December 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1019,200 tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week, a 4.65% month - on - month decrease. As of December 25, 2025 (week 52), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase from the previous week, a 28.26% month - on - month increase [65] International Urea International Urea Price - Charts show the historical trends of FOB prices of large - granular urea from China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [69][70][72]