Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Zinc shows a slight fluctuation [1] - Zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,945 yuan/ton, up 0.09%; LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,844.5 dollars/ton, up 0.73% [1] - **Trading Volume**: SHFE zinc main contract trading volume was 184,578 lots, down 66,827; LME zinc trading volume was 18,296 lots, down 111 [1] - **Open Interest**: SHFE zinc main contract open interest was 134,060 lots, up 746; LME zinc open interest was 184,683 lots, up 837 [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was -15 yuan/ton, down 5; LME CASH - 3M premium was 9 dollars/ton, up 19 [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 12,090 tons, up 1,002; LME zinc inventory was 116,600 tons, down 1,625 [1] News - Trump's stance on "firing Powell" has softened, but he and Bessent are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates [2]

Overall Core View - The supply-demand contradiction of lead is still expected to exist, and the price is supported [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Market Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 2,015 dollars/ton, up 0.17% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,342 lots, a decrease of 3,570 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,798 lots, an increase of 595 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -25.97 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47 dollars/ton [1] Import and Export Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -699.81 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.39 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -566.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.6 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 60,059 tons, unchanged; the inventory of LME lead was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Comprehensive Profit and Loss - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -507 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1] News Summary - There are potential "tariff wars" between Brazil and the US, the EU and the US, and the US and Japan. Brazil may respond if Trump doesn't change his mind, the EU may impose over 90 billion euros in countermeasures if tariff negotiations don't progress, and Trump plans to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods while Japan will invest 550 billion dollars in the US [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 23 日 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,387 | 7,300 | 87 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2508 | 7,505 | 7,492 | 13 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,481 | 7,423 | 58 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB07-EB08 | -118 | -192 | 74 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB08-EB09 | 24 | 69 | -45 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯：强情绪之下的空配 期 ...

2025年07月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：国内现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：小幅震荡 | 6 | | 铅：供需矛盾预期仍存，价格存支撑 | 8 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：震荡上行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 23 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 ...

2025 年 7 月 23 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：宏观助推，警惕情绪回落 豆油：跟随油脂板块，品种间偏弱 | 李隽钰 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 | | lijunyu@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,926 | 0.18% | 8,954 | 0.31% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,076 | -0.20% | 8,072 | -0.05% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,477 | -0.90% | 9,450 | -0.28% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,263 | 0.88% | 4,233 | -0.31% | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 55.48 | -0.61% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The second round of price increase for coke has been implemented, and the market is oscillating with an upward trend; for coking coal, the expected constraints on supply policies are strengthening, and the market is also oscillating with an upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 (coking coal) was 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%; the closing price of J2509 (coke) was 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 94.5 yuan/ton or 5.90% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of JM2509 was 1,636,160 lots, with an open interest of 442,089 lots, a decrease of 62,782 lots; the trading volume of J2509 was 58,919 lots, with an open interest of 40,527 lots, a decrease of 3,388 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1320 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal increased by 21 yuan/ton to 1029 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke price index increased by 100 yuan/ton to 1350 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 for different types of coking coal and J2509 for different types of coke showed various changes, and the spreads between different contract months (JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601) also changed [2]. 3.2 Price and Position Status - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The ex - warehouse prices of Shanxi primary coking coal at Jingtang Port, Australian primary coking coal at Qingdao Port, Lianyungang Port, Rizhao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1420 yuan/ton, 1425 yuan/ton, 1425 yuan/ton, 1310 yuan/ton, and 1415 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **July 22 Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1100 yuan/ton (+50); the price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1018 yuan/ton (+27); the price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 998 yuan/ton (+26) [3]. - **Position Status**: On July 22, from the position of the top 20 members of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions decreased by 26,180 lots, and short positions decreased by 42,062 lots; for the coke J2509 contract, long positions decreased by 2,834 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,295 lots [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 1, and that of coking coal is also 1 [4].

梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2509 | 元/吨 | 2.924 | 0.00% | | 2,899 | -0. 75% | | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2.927 | -0. 75% | | 2.911 | -0. 61% | | | | LU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,584 | -0. 53% | | 3,577 | -1.00% | | | | LU2510 | 元/吨 | 3.581 | -1.00% | | 3.575 | -0.97% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2509 | ने | 458. 152 | 11.646 | | 193.477 | 8.317 | | | | FU2510 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the lithium carbonate commodity is positive, with a tendency towards a strong and volatile market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 72,880 yuan, up 1,600 yuan from T - 1; the 2511 contract closed at 71,800 yuan, also up 1,600 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,118,226 lots, and the 2511 contract was 145,601 lots. The open interest of the 2509 contract was 411,638 lots, and the 2511 contract was 119,827 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 10,089 lots, a decrease of 120 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was - 3,780 yuan, and spot - 2511 was - 2,700 yuan. The basis of 2509 - 2511 was 1,080 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 742 yuan, up 12 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,590 yuan, up 45 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan, up 1,100 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,450 yuan, up 1,100 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary materials and phosphoric acid iron lithium also showed different degrees of changes [1] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 68,877 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,136 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton [2] - Guangdong and Anhui will standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry. Guangdong has introduced relevant policies and encouraged enterprises to make payment commitments [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is high, and attention should be paid to the limit - up risk. For polysilicon, the policy expectation is becoming stronger, and the futures market is also difficult to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon Si2509: The closing price is 9,655 yuan/ton, with a change of 395 yuan compared to T - 1, 870 yuan compared to T - 5, and 2,265 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 1,234,403 lots, a decrease of 26,527 lots compared to T - 1, 182,495 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 655,909 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest is 380,961 lots, a decrease of 2,335 lots compared to T - 1, 15,692 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 75,405 lots compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon PS2509: The closing price is 49,105 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3,445 yuan compared to T - 1 and 6,635 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 757,482 lots, an increase of 136,168 lots compared to T - 1 and 191,736 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest is 192,179 lots, an increase of 20,122 lots compared to T - 1 and 122,358 lots compared to T - 5 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract is - 25 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and continuous first short inter - period arbitrage is 51.8 yuan/ton. The spot premium or discount varies depending on different benchmarks [1]. - Polysilicon: The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract is 260.0 yuan/ton, and the spot premium or discount for N - type recycled materials is - 3365 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price and Profit Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 9700 yuan/ton, and the profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Yunnan for new standard 553 is - 1451 yuan/ton and - 3363 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type recycled materials is 46000 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 17.8 yuan/kg [1]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC is 12050 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is - 231 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 is 20250 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 690 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Data**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.7 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 17.3 million tons, the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 72.0 million tons, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory is 25.0 million tons [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 24.9 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost Data**: - For industrial silicon raw materials, the prices of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. vary in different regions and have different price changes compared to different time points [1]. - For polysilicon - related products, the prices of trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA also have different price changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The National Energy Administration will continue to deepen the innovation of the power distribution mechanism, expand the new models of new energy local consumption, improve the green energy consumption system, strengthen the formulation and revision of new energy - related standards, and support key technology research and development to promote the high - end, intelligent, green, and integrated development of the industry [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 2, indicating a strong bullish view, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [3].

2025 年 07 月 23 日 尿素：现货企稳，上方空间收窄 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,817 | 1,812 | 5 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,806 | 1,807 | - 1 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 314,653 | 329,271 | -14618 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 191,764 | 195,949 | -4185 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,523 | 2,523 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,136,221 | 1,189,793 | -53572 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | 2 3 | 1 8 | 5 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -97 | -92 | - 5 | | | | 东光 ...