2025 年 9 月 15 日 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2510 | 3,023 | -0.43 | -119,745 | -14,824 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,342 | -0.24 | -13,876 | 593 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋10-12价差 | | -148 | | -126 | | | 鸡蛋10-1价差 | | -319 | | -306 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.40 | | 3.30 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.27 | | 3.11 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.45 | | 3.45 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.80 | | 3.69 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 玉米现货价格 | | 2,300 | | 2,317 | | | ...

2025 年 09 月 15 日 【现货消息】 短纤：短纤期货偏弱震荡，现货方面工厂报价维稳为主，成交按单商谈。期现及贸易商价格下调。今 日直纺涤短销售一般，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 51%，部分工厂产销：20%、40%、30%、30%、90%、 50%、80%、50%、50%。 瓶片：上游原料期货下跌，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多下调 20-50 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场低位成交尚可， 个别大厂成交放量。9-11 月订单多成交在 5780-5900 元/吨出厂不等，略低 5750-5770 元/吨出厂，略高 5910 元/吨出厂附近，品牌不同价格略有差异。 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 短纤：成本支撑弱，震荡观察 瓶片：成本支撑弱，震荡观察 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

2025 年 09 月 15 日 工业硅：行业库存累库，逢高布空思路 多晶硅：关注市场信息变动 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,745 | 5 | -75 | 145 | | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 303,843 | -43,776 | -259,443 | -206,437 | | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 277,988 | -9,783 | -8,557 | -6,512 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 53,610 | -100 | -3,125 | - | | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 356,808 | 78,512 | -308,434 | - | | | | | PS2511持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term weak rating for caustic soda [1] Report's Core View - Currently, caustic soda has insufficient upward drivers, the futures market is reflecting the decline in spot prices in Shandong, and there is still pressure on spot prices in the short term. The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda come from exports and alumina. Overall, the market is short - term weak [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 01 contract is 2560, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong is 850, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2656, and the basis is 96 [1] Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the liquid caustic soda in the province is generally stable today. There is resistance to high non - aluminum prices, and some negotiated orders have declined. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory changes of caustic soda plants [2] Market Condition Analysis - The lack of upward drivers for caustic soda mainly comes from exports and alumina. In terms of exports, new production capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea lead to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia, the export profit cannot expand, the export orders are not improved, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak. In terms of alumina, the high - output and high - inventory pattern compresses profits, and the supply of marginal production capacity may be affected by profits in the future. Although there are expected new production capacities in Guangxi at the end of this year and from Orient Hope at the beginning of next year, before the stockpiling starts, the market is difficult to achieve resonance between futures and spot [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is - 1, indicating a weak trend [4]

2025 年 09 月 15 日 铅：需求边际改善，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17040 | 0.83% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2019 | 1.18% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 63429 | 21657 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 6480 | 2104 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 52188 | 2585 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 156496 | -1743 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -30 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -41.16 | 4.34 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -40 | 10 | 进口升贴水（美 ...

棕榈油：美豆油获得支撑，棕榈低多为主 2025 年 9 月 15 日 品 研 究 豆油：美豆收涨，关注中美谈判结果 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,296 | -0.36% | 9,336 | 0.43% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,322 | -0.17% | 8,356 | 0.41% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,857 | -0.36% | 9,894 | 0.38% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,445 | -0.20% | | | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 52.12 | 1.01% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 765,320 | 46006 | 428,331 | -10,366 | | | 豆油主力 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - LPG is expected to experience a short - term narrow - range and slightly stronger oscillation [1]. - Propylene is likely to operate at a high level with a weakening trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,449 yesterday with a - 0.47% daily increase and 4,505 in the night session with a 1.26% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,400 yesterday with a - 0.54% daily increase and 4,449 in the night session with a 1.11% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,420 yesterday with a 0.17% daily increase and 6,426 in the night session with a 0.09% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,440 yesterday with a - 0.03% daily increase and 6,449 in the night session with a 0.14% increase [2]. - **LPG Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2510, yesterday's trading volume was 52,056 (a decrease of 6,755 from the previous day), and open interest was 61,188 (a decrease of 6,172 from the previous day); for PG2511, trading volume was 20,151 (a decrease of 3,417 from the previous day), and open interest was 50,813 (an increase of 2,043 from the previous day); for PL2601, trading volume was 3,192 (a decrease of 53 from the previous day), and open interest was 11,270 (an increase of 491 from the previous day); for PL2602, trading volume was 96 (an increase of 43 from the previous day), and open interest was 888 (an increase of 2 from the previous day) [2]. - **LPG Price Spreads**: The spread of Guangzhou domestic gas to the PG10 contract was 31 yesterday (30 the day before); the spread of Guangzhou imported gas to the PG10 contract was 101 yesterday (60 the day before); the spread of Shandong propylene to the PL01 contract was 280 yesterday (291 the day before); the spread of East China propylene to the PL01 contract was 155 yesterday (191 the day before); the spread of South China propylene to the PL01 contract was 55 yesterday (66 the day before) [2]. - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 70.5% (73.1% last week); the MTBE operating rate was 61.7% (62.2% previously); the alkylation operating rate was 43.4% (46.8% previously) [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Cargo Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the October CP paper cargo price for propane was 546 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 521 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper cargo price for propane was 557 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7]. - **Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH plant maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (starting on May 12, 2023, end time undetermined), Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. (starting in late November 2023, end time undetermined), etc. [8]. - **Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises have LPG plant maintenance plans, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical (starting on May 14, 2024, end time in late September 2025), Huaxing Petrochemical (starting on October 22, 2024, end time in November 2025), etc. [9].

2025 年 9 月 15 日 螺纹钢：需求有待验证，钢价低位震荡 热轧卷板：需求有待验证，钢价低位震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 海关总署 9 月 8 日数据显示，2025 年 8 月中国出口钢材 951.0 万吨，较上月减少 32.6 万吨，环比下 降 3.3%；1-8 月累计出口钢材 7749.0 万吨，同比增长 10.0%。8 月中国进口钢材 50.0 万吨，较上月增加 4.8 万吨，环比增长 10.6%；1-8 月累计进口钢材 397.7 万吨，同比下降 14.1%。（数据来源：上海钢联） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,035 | 22 16 | 0.73 | | 期货 | | 3 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 15 日 铜：宏观情绪驱动，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 81,060 | 1.16% | 80810 | -0.31% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,065 | 0.07% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 91,556 | 26,707 | 186,876 | 12,423 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 20,591 | 1,459 | 292,000 | 2,464 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 25,560 | 5,532 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 153,950 | -225 | 13.46% | -0.06% | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The report tracks the fundamentals of cotton, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, warehouse receipts, and spot prices. It also provides macro and industry news, indicating that the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish, the trading of the pure - cotton yarn market is lukewarm, and ICE cotton futures are fluctuating narrowly. The trend strength of cotton is rated as neutral [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 13,860 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 13,900 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.29%. CY2511 closed at 19,845 yuan/ton yesterday with a decline of 0.13%, and the night - session closing price was 19,935 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.45%. ICE cotton 12 was at 66.76 cents/pound with an increase of 0.03% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 208,414 lots, a decrease of 314 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 700,934 lots, a decrease of 2,806 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 10,916 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 21,486 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 5,017, a decrease of 142, and the effective forecast was 0. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 90, a decrease of 1, and the effective forecast was 85 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,127 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan compared with the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The price in Shandong was 15,282 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The price in Hebei was 15,208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The 3128B index was 15,248 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish, the inventory of high - quality lint is low, and the pre - sale of some new cotton has relatively good transactions. The spot sales basis is mostly stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3.5 is CF01 + 1200 - 1350, and some are lower than this price, for inland self - pick - up. The sales basis of 2024/25 Beijiang Production and Construction Corps Agricultural Division 8 machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3 is CF01 + 1500 and above, for Xinjiang self - pick - up [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading of the pure - cotton yarn market is lukewarm, weaker than the same period in previous years. Downstream weaving mills make just - in - time purchases, and cotton yarn prices are mainly stable, with real orders negotiated. The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change. Weaving mills say that in - machine orders are being continuously produced, but the order volume has decreased year - on - year, and it is difficult to get follow - up orders. Grey fabric prices are negotiated according to the quantity [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures first fell and then rose, continuing to fluctuate narrowly within the day. The USDA monthly supply and demand report basically met market expectations. The production of US cotton in the 25/26 season was slightly adjusted, and exports and ending stocks remained unchanged. In the global market, the beginning inventory, production, and consumption of Chinese cotton in the 25/26 season were mainly adjusted [1][2]. [Trend Strength] The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral rating. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].