Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of PVC is difficult to sustain, and it is a range - bound market for the time being. The high - production and high - inventory structure is hard to ease, and the market will still short the chlor - alkali profit later [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Fundamental Data - The futures price of the 09 contract is 5260, the East China spot price is 5080, the basis is - 180, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 114 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC market price continues to rise. Affected by the supply reduction expectation due to black industry policy concerns, the prices of related industrial sectors rise significantly in the afternoon, driving up the futures price. However, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot fundamentals persists, resulting in dull market transactions. The expected price range of East China calcium carbide - type five - grade PVC for spot cash warehouse pick - up is 5000 - 5150 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - The anti - involution sentiment at the macro level is strong, especially in the petrochemical and chemical industries. The impact on PVC may be relatively limited. Recently, the trend of coking coal and other varieties is strong, and the concentrated exit of PVC short - sellers causes a stampede, leading to a strong market trend, but the rebound is hard to sustain from the fundamental perspective [1] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the northwest chlor - alkali integrated plants still have profits. In the second half of the year, there is insufficient driving force for supply - side production cuts, and the high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to ease [2] High - Production Structure - PVC maintenance volume is lower than the same period in 2023, and the high - production pattern continues. The chlor - alkali cost declines, and the demand for caustic soda in 2025 provides good support, maintaining high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain compensates for chlorine with alkali, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to losses. Moreover, there will be more capacity put into production in the future, with an expected 1.1 million tons of new capacity to be put into production in July - August [2] High - Inventory Pressure - The pressure of high inventory persists, and export demand can only relieve it periodically. In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market increases, and exports are still affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. The domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coal industry is undergoing a "counter - involution" process. The National Energy Administration's coal production verification notice has affected the prices of coking coal, coke, thermal coal, and coal stocks [6]. - In the short - term, for coking coal and coke, the price increase is mainly due to emotional and macro - level disturbances, with the order of price influence being policy news > futures - spot behavior > actual fundamentals [8]. - For polysilicon, the expectation of "counter - involution" policies is deepening. Although the supply - demand pattern is weak, the market is trading based on the expectation of policy and capacity restructuring, and the price may continue to reach new highs [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver is expected to break through and rise. Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1 [17][18]. - Yesterday, the prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all increased, with daily increases of 0.40%, 0.39%, and 0.99% respectively [16]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, supporting the price. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased slightly by 0.04% during the day but increased by 0.29% at night. The London Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.31% [20][22]. - **Zinc**: It will have a slight oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The Shanghai Zinc main contract rose 0.09% yesterday, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk rose 0.73% [23][25]. - **Lead**: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support. The trend strength is 0. The Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 0.35% yesterday, while the London Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.17% [26][27]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend strength is - 1. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 900 yuan/ton yesterday [30][32]. - **Aluminum**: It will oscillate within a range. Alumina will oscillate upwards, and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 0, 1, and 0 respectively [33][35]. - **Nickel**: Macro - level sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - level sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [36][40]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are both expected to oscillate strongly. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented. Yesterday, the coking coal and coke main contracts closed at the daily limit, mainly due to the coal production verification notice [6][60]. - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and the price will oscillate and stabilize [64]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of policies is becoming stronger, and the price is difficult to fall. The trend strength is 1. The main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly yesterday [9][44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of daily limit. The trend strength is 2. The price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures has been rising recently [44]. 3.3 Building Materials and Steel - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - level expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The main contract of iron ore futures rose 1.73% yesterday [47]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - level sentiment, they will oscillate strongly. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 1. The prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures increased significantly yesterday [51][54]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Driven by the macro - level market, they will oscillate strongly. The trend strengths of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide are both 1 [56][58]. 3.4 Others - **Carbonate Lithium**: The sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The prices of the main contracts of carbonate lithium futures have been rising recently [41][43].

2025年07月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：商品情绪向好，偏强震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：市场情绪高涨，关注涨停风险 | 6 | | 多晶硅：政策预期愈发强烈，盘面亦难跌 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 23 日 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 123,530 | 980 | 4,150 | 3,1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Commodity Market Trends**: Affected by factors such as "anti - involution" policies, overall commodity sentiment is currently strong, but external factors like potential August trade war risks need attention. Different commodities show diverse trends due to their own supply - demand fundamentals [37][46][81]. - **Supply - Demand Dynamics**: In general, many commodities face supply - demand imbalances. Some have increasing supply pressure, while demand may be in the off - season or face challenges from various factors [37][46][81]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PX, PTA, MEG) - **PX**: Supply - demand remains tight. Domestic device operating rates are decreasing, and PTA operating rates are rising. It is recommended to take a long PX and short EB/EG position and conduct rolling long on the monthly spread [6][10]. - **PTA**: Unilateral trend is strong. Due to increased downstream polyester procurement enthusiasm, it is advisable to take a long PTA and short PF position [10]. - **MEG**: Unilateral trend turns strong, and a reverse spread operation for the 9 - 1 monthly spread is recommended. The increase in coal prices affects coal - chemical products [10]. 3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: Shows a volatile trend. Although futures prices have increased and trading volume has expanded, the tire industry is facing over - supply and price competition, and the overall market lacks strong upward momentum [11][12][15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policy expectations, raw material price stability, and inventory reduction. However, in the medium - term, supply increases may limit price elasticity [18][20]. 3.3 Asphalt - It fluctuates repeatedly. Production has decreased, factory inventories have decreased, and social inventories have slightly increased. Market trends are mainly affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships [21][29][35]. 3.4 Polyolefins (LLDPE, PP) - **LLDPE**: Ranges within a certain interval. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand support is weak. Although inventory is currently low, it is gradually moving towards a state of inventory accumulation [36][37]. - **PP**: Spot prices fluctuate, and trading is light. Futures prices have a certain impact on the spot market, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [41][42]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - The rebound is difficult to sustain. Supply pressure will gradually increase, but export orders can offset some of the new production capacity. Demand is in the off - season, and although there is cost support, the price increase momentum is insufficient [44][46]. 3.6 Pulp - It fluctuates widely. The spot market is weak, with high port inventories and sluggish demand. The paper pulp market is affected by general commodity price increases, but the follow - up of the spot market is limited [49][51]. 3.7 Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Driven by the strong futures market, the price of the original sheet has increased slightly, and the delivery of futures merchants is relatively active [53][54]. 3.8 Methanol - It runs strongly. Supported by macro - policies and expectations of olefin external procurement, the market sentiment is positive. Although the traditional downstream demand has not improved significantly, the short - term market may maintain a stable and strong trend [56][59]. 3.9 Urea - The spot price stabilizes, and the upward space is narrowing. The short - term fundamentals have little impact on prices, mainly relying on policy - driven speculation. Supply has maintenance plans, and demand has export support, but domestic agricultural demand is coming to an end [61][63]. 3.10 Styrene - It is a short - position allocation under strong sentiment. Currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, it is recommended to focus on positions that compress styrene profits [64][65]. 3.11 Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The market is stable with slight fluctuations, device operation is relatively stable, and downstream demand is flat [66]. 3.12 LPG - It shows a short - term weak and volatile trend. PDH and other industrial operating rates have increased, and price spreads have changed. Attention should be paid to device maintenance plans and international price expectations [68][70][77]. 3.13 PVC - The rebound is difficult to sustain. Although affected by policy expectations, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot market persists. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short - term [80][81]. 3.14 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to decline, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Shows a weak and volatile trend at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market rebounds slightly [83]. 3.15 Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is recommended to hold short positions for the October contract and reverse spreads for the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 contracts. Freight rates show different trends, and attention should be paid to market supply - demand and shipping capacity changes [85].

Report Overview - Date: July 23, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Content: Morning report on the black series of commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro expectations, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Driven by macro sentiment, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Boosted by the macro market, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][11] - Coke: The second round of price increases has been implemented, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Coking coal: The expected supply policy constraints have been strengthened, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption has recovered, showing a stable and volatile trend [2][20] - Logs: Showing a fluctuating and repeated trend [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 1.73% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 43,544 lots. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 14 yuan/ton for Jumbuck (61%) [4] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4] - **Trend strength**: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 3.12%. The HC2510 contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,477 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 2.84%. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 80 yuan/ton for hot-rolled coil in Tianjin [7] - **Macro and industry news**: In June, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel [7][9] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese ore increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree [11] - **Macro and industry news**: On July 22, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in some regions increased. A steel mill in Shandong finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal increased significantly. The spot price of coke in Rizhao Port increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some coking coal varieties also increased [15] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both coke and coking coal [17] Thermal Coal - **Fundamental data**: The ZC2507 contract of thermal coal had no trading volume. The prices of southern port and domestic origin coal are provided. The long and short positions of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange did not change [20][21] - **Trend strength**: 0 [22] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The prices of log futures contracts showed fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of some wood squares [24] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [26] - **Trend strength**: 0 [26]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Boosted by the macro - environment, be vigilant about sentiment reversal [2][6] - Soybean oil: Follows the oil and fat sector, relatively weak among varieties [2][6] - Soybean meal: Market sentiment is strong, the market fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Soybean: Technically, it fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Corn: Runs in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - Sugar: Conducts narrow - range consolidation [2][21] - Cotton: Pay attention to market sentiment changes [2][26] - Eggs: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][33] - Pigs: Macro sentiment is strong, waiting for end - of - month confirmation [2][35] - Peanuts: Run in a fluctuating manner [2][39] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,926 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,954 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,076 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decrease, and night - session closing price was 8,072 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: UOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 5 - 9%. MPOC expected next month's crude palm oil price to be between 4,100 - 4,300 Malaysian ringgit. SGS estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased by 35.99% compared to the previous month [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 0, soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4232 yuan/ton with a 1.34% increase, and night - session closing price was 4241 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 3086 yuan/ton with a 0.88% increase, and night - session closing price was 3092 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 22, CBOT soybeans fell due to good Midwest weather and focus on trade negotiations [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, soybean trend intensity is +1 (only for the daily - session main - contract futures price on the report day) [16]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,322 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,303 yuan/ton with a 0.82% decrease [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices were stable, container collection port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions had different changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [20]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.26 cents/pound with a 0.1 decrease. The mainstream spot price was 6040 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan approved importing 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern region's crushing progress was slow, but MIX increased significantly year - on - year [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2509's daily - session closing price was 14,225 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and night - session closing price was 14235 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the cotton yarn market's demand was insufficient. ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [31]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2508's closing price was 3,574 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.17% increase [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [33]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 14430 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease. The futures price of live pigs 2509 was 14380 yuan/ton with a 15 - yuan increase [35]. - **Market Logic**: Currently in the consumption off - season, the spot price has dropped rapidly. Wait for end - of - month confirmation. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is 0 [36]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: PK510's closing price was 8,140 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [39]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In various regions such as Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, raw material acquisitions are basically over, and inventory trading is the main activity, with prices generally stable [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [41].

2025 年 07 月 23 日 对二甲苯：供需仍偏紧，滚动正套 PTA：聚酯产销放量，原料趋势偏强 MEG：单边趋势偏强，月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com PX：尾盘石脑油价格继续走弱，8 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 569 美元/吨 CFR。今天 PX 价格偏强维持，尾 盘实货 9 月在 843/848 商谈，10 月在 834/841 商谈，9/10 换月在平水有买盘，均无成交。今日 PX 估价在 843 美元/吨，较昨日上涨 1 美元。 据市场参与者称，7 月 22 日亚洲 PX 现货市场的交易活动清淡，卖家和买家基本上保持观望。 关于中国推动逐步淘汰老化石化产能的讨论打压了市场情绪，市场参与者正在评估 PX 供应的潜在减 少是否会被下游需求下降所抵消，甚至超过。 "如果淘汰老化的 PTA 和聚酯工厂，[对 PX] 的需求可能会减少，"一位中国生产商说，并指出这可能意 味着对 PX 的需求降低。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the stock index and ETF options market on July 22, 2025, presenting data on market trends, including price changes, trading volume, open interest, and volatility, and warns about the expiration risk of ETF options [1]. 3. Summary by Category Market Data - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of major indices and ETFs rose, with varying trading volume changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2792.18, up 19.94, and its trading volume was 68.31 billion hands, an increase of 18.36 billion hands [1]. - **Options Market Statistics**: Trading volume and open interest of most options increased. The PCR values (Volume - PCR and Open Interest - PCR) varied among different options, reflecting different market sentiment. For instance, the Volume - PCR of CSI 1000 Index Options was 72.54% [1]. - **Options Volatility Statistics**: Implied volatility (IV) and historical volatility (HV) of options showed different trends. For example, the near - month ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options was 14.56%, with a 0.22% increase [4]. Index and ETF Options Analysis - **Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options**: Analyzed through full - contract PCR,主力 contract skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure charts, showing market sentiment and volatility characteristics [7][8]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Similar analysis methods were used, with data presented in corresponding charts to reflect market conditions [11][12]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: The report analyzed its market performance from multiple perspectives, including trading volume, open interest, and volatility [14][15]. - **ETF Options**: Options such as Shanghai Composite 50ETF, Huatai - Berry 300ETF, and others were analyzed using PCR, skew, volatility cone, and term structure charts to understand their market trends [19][20].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has risen, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices, which confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. The report is waiting for the spot price verification at the end of the month. Recently, the macro - sentiment is strong, and the implementation of policies should be monitored. In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,800 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,890 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 230 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 235 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 14,110 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 290 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 60,032 lots, an increase of 31,070 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,259 lots, an increase of 600 lots; the Pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 25,211 lots, an increase of 16,970 lots, and an open interest of 44,029 lots, an increase of 126 lots; the Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 24,904 lots, an increase of 19,029 lots, and an open interest of 29,487 lots, an increase of 5,388 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The Pig 2509 basis is 115 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 180 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 basis is 610 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 185 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 basis is 370 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 240 yuan/ton; the Pig 9 - 11 spread is 495 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 55 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2]. The classification of strength includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy fundamentals are weak, and EUA prices follow this trend. The recommended strategy is to buy low and sell high within the range of €63 - 76. There are both利多 and利空 factors affecting the market. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 69.68 euros/ton (-0.53%), and the bid - cover ratio is 2.4. [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 69.89 euros/ton (-0.94%), with a trading volume of 18,000 lots (-0.20). [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to buy low and sell high within the price range of €63 - 76. [2] Core Logic - **利多**: The temperature in China and Europe will be higher than the same period of the year, which will increase the demand for cooling electricity. [2] - **利空**: The solar power generation increases, and the remaining load in Germany is expected to decline; the energy benchmark price weakens. [2] - **Other**: A new round of attacks by Russia in Ukraine has caused three deaths, and Zelensky has proposed a new round of peace talks with Russia. [2] Market Data - **Auction Data**: On July 18, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 70.08 million tons, the CBAM certificate price was 160.70 euros/ton, the auction price was 69.68 euros/ton, the auction revenue was 111.98 million euros, and the bid - cover ratio was 2.4. [2] - **Futures and Spot Data**: On July 18, 2025, the futures settlement price was 69.89 euros/ton (-0.94%), the trading volume was 18,000 lots (-0.20), and the open interest was unchanged. The spot settlement price was 69.18 euros/ton (-0.92%), and the trading volume was 685 lots (-875). [2]