期货研究 41 集运指数（欧线）：10 承压运行；12、02 宽幅震 荡 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 昨日成交 昨日持仓 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 前日成交/持仓 EC2510 1,157.6 -5.27% 27,358 47,611 -1,896 0.57 0.66 EC2512 1,610.2 -1.41% 9,853 19,637 612 0.50 0.53 EC2602 1,500.8 -0.56% 1,680 6,327 326 0.27 0.21 EC2510 - EC2512 单 位 SCFIS：欧洲航线 点 SCFIS：美西航线 点 单 位 SCFI：欧洲航线 $/TEU SCFI：美西航线 $/FEU $/40'GP $/20'GP Maersk 3 8 1590 950 MSC 4 8 1590 950 OOCL 3 7 1700 1200 EMC 4 2 1710 1105 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the mine end [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between short - and long - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is under pressure [2][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to short at high prices [2][15]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market information changes [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,980 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Many events occurred in Indonesia, including the trial production of the CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP, plans to shorten mining quota periods, production suspensions in some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and the takeover of a nickel - mine area by the forestry working group [4][5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on futures contracts (such as 2511 and 2601 contracts), spot prices, basis, and raw - material prices are provided [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and Zijin Mining's lithium - salt project was put into production [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, prices, profits, inventories, and raw - material costs of industrial silicon and polysilicon is presented [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The three ministries and commissions issued the "National Industrial Resources Comprehensive Utilization Advanced and Applicable Process Technology Equipment Catalog (2025 Edition)" [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (slightly bearish), and that of polysilicon is 0 (neutral) [17].

商 品 研 2025 年 09 月 15 日 究 豆粕：美豆偏强，连粕或反弹 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3959 | +33（+0.84%） | 3956 | +0（+0.00%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3070 | +4（+0.13%） | 3066 -21 | （-0.68%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1045.25 | +11.75（+1.14%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 288.3 | +0.6（+0.21%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3060～3090， 较昨+10至+20； M2601+0， 持平； | 现货M2601-60， 10-1月M2601+40/+50/+80， | 持平； 9月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Supported by US soybean oil, the strategy is to go long at low prices [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: US soybeans closed higher, and attention should be paid to the results of China - US negotiations [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][10]. - **Soybean No.1**: It will move in a range [2][12]. - **Corn**: It will move in a range [2][15]. - **Sugar**: It will mainly move in a range [2][19]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of new cotton [2][23]. - **Eggs**: The peak season for spot prices is over, and inventory remains high [2][28]. - **Hogs**: The weakness of spot prices is hard to change, but policies are strong [2][30]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were 9,296 yuan/ton (-0.36%) and 9,336 yuan/ton (0.43%) respectively; soybean oil's were 8,322 yuan/ton (-0.17%) and 8,356 yuan/ton (0.41%) respectively. CBOT soybean oil rose 1.01% [4]. - **News**: Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 8081.6 million tons, up 8 million tons from last month's estimate. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to 45% (B45) [5][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session and night - session closing prices were 3070 yuan/ton (+0.13%) and 3066 yuan/ton (-0.68%) respectively; DCE soybean No.1 2511's were 3959 yuan/ton (+0.84%) and 3956 yuan/ton (0.00%) respectively [11]. - **News**: On September 12, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to lower yield estimates and active short - covering. The US soybean production is slightly increased to 43.01 billion bushels [11][12]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2511's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,197 yuan/ton (-0.09%) and 2,196 yuan/ton (-0.05%) respectively; C2601's were 2,167 yuan/ton (-0.09%) and 2,167 yuan/ton (0.00%) respectively [16]. - **News**: Northern corn port collection prices remained flat, and Northeast enterprise corn prices were strong, while North China corn prices were stable to weak [17]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.52 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5940 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5540 yuan/ton [19]. - **News**: India's monsoon rainfall increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast [19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601's day - session and night - session closing prices were 13,860 yuan/ton (0.18%) and 13900 yuan/ton (0.29%) respectively. Spot prices of different regions showed slight changes [23]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading was cold, and the cotton yarn market was tepid. The USDA's monthly report adjusted China's cotton data [24]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2510 and 2601 futures prices decreased by 0.43% and 0.24% respectively. Spot prices in different regions showed some changes [28]. - **Outlook**: The peak season for spot prices is over, and inventory remains high [28]. Hogs - **Fundamentals**: Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot prices were 13480 yuan/ton, 13400 yuan/ton, and 14340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of different contracts showed changes [30]. - **Market Logic**: The supply in September is large, and the spot price center is expected to decline. The 7 - month contract may be regulated by policies in the short term [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Spot prices of different varieties showed changes, and futures prices of PK510 and PK511 decreased by 0.96% and 0.03% respectively [34]. - **Market Situation**: New peanuts in some areas are starting to be listed, with small volumes and unstable prices. New peanuts are expected to be fully listed in early October [35].

2025 年 9 月 15 日 燃料油趋势强度：0；低硫燃料油趋势强度：0 燃料油：短线反弹，波动持续放大 低硫燃料油：小幅回涨，外盘现货高低硫价差 延续收窄趋势 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2,762 | -2. 68% | | 2.776 | -2.01% | | | | FU2511 | 元/晚 | 2.748 | -2.01% | | 2.768 | -1.98% | | | | LU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,241 | -3.25% | | 3, 261 | -2.45% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3.267 | -2.45% | | 3.288 | -2.43% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests to continue watching the crude oil market unilaterally, while the monthly spread may still rebound [1]. Detailed Summary by Section 1. Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) at $67.49/bbl, up $1.1, with a $3.90 premium over WTI due to North Sea field maintenance and geopolitical premium [2]. - WTI (NYMEX) at $63.67/bbl, up $1.04, with Cushing inventory down 2.8 million barrels and strategic reserve repurchase started [2]. - Dubai (Platts) at $71.72/bbl, up $0.84, with a $0.28 premium over Oman due to strong refinery feed demand [2]. - Murban (ADNOC) at $70.1/bbl, down $1.02, with OSP cut to compete for Asian buyers [2]. - Urals (CIF) at $57.91/bbl, up $0.54, with a $9.58 discount to Brent and increased shipments [2]. 2. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent - WTI spread at $3.9/bbl, influenced by Cushing inventory decline and export facility congestion [3]. - Dubai - Oman spread at $0.28/bbl, affected by Middle - East OSP reduction and market competition [3]. - ESPO - Dubai spread at -$1.41/bbl, due to increased Russian exports [3]. - Midland - Cushing spread at $0.95/bbl, caused by pipeline capacity issues [3]. 3. Device Impact - Ukraine's attack on Russia's Primorsk terminal affected Urals crude, increasing price by $2.1/bbl immediately [5]. - Saudi's October OSP cut affected Middle - East medium crude, decreasing price by $1.02/bbl for a month [5]. - US strategic reserve repurchase is expected to affect WTI, increasing price by $0.5/bbl [5]. - Indonesia's Pertamina增产计划 will affect Southeast Asian light crude, decreasing price by $0.75/bbl in the long - term [5]. 4. Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Persian Gulf - Japan VLCC freight at w64.5, up 0.15, due to Red Sea route insurance premium increase [6]. - US Gulf - China VLCC freight at $8.45m, up $1.9m, because of Panama Canal restrictions [6]. - West Africa - China Suezmax freight at w107.5, up 0.08, due to India's procurement shift [6]. 5. Different Oil Types Comparison - 92 unleaded gasoline cracking spread at $22/bbl, up 1.1, due to low Southeast Asian inventory and emergency procurement [6]. - 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel cracking spread at $6.93/bbl, up 0.84, due to increased Chinese bunker fuel demand [7]. - 10ppm diesel cracking spread at $19/bbl, up 1.35, due to high African import demand [7]. - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread at -$2.25/bbl, down 0.95, due to delayed refinery restart in Australia [7]. 6. Key Market News - Iran's highest national security council explained the cooperation agreement with the IAEA [8]. - Ukraine attacked Russia's Kirishi refinery, causing a fire [8]. - Trump threatened new sanctions on Russia and mentioned NATO's oil purchase from Russia [8]. - US oil drilling rig count increased to 416 as of September 12 [8].

2025年09月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：下修非农就业 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：宏观情绪驱动，价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：需求边际改善，价格上涨 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：突破上行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 | 13 | | 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 沪金2510 | 昨日收盘价 834.22 | 日涨幅 0.41% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 834.00 | 夜盘涨幅 0.39% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 黄金T+D Comex黄金2510 | 830.34 3680.70 | 0.51% 0.20% | 830.50 - | 0.12% | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3642 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading outlooks for various commodities, such as "Breakout upward" for aluminum, "Weak operation" for alumina, and "Range - bound oscillation" for zinc [13]. 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic Data**: China's August social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, with a 590 - billion - yuan increase in RMB loans. The M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low, indicating improved capital activation. Corporate financing demand showed marginal improvement, while consumer spending willingness remained weak [7]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may remain weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy. Supply pressure is emerging, and polyester demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [8][9]. - **Lead**: Short - term supply of lead concentrate is tight, and demand has marginally improved, supporting prices. Existing long positions can be held, and new long positions should wait for better entry points [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to see a downward revision of non - farm employment, and silver is predicted to break out upward. Gold's trend strength is 0, and silver's is also 0 [13][17][21]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Driven by macro sentiment, copper prices are rising. Trend strength is 1 [13][23][25]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. Trend strength is 0 [13][26][27]. - **Lead**: Demand has marginally improved, leading to price increases. Trend strength is 0 [13][29]. - **Tin**: Tin is in a range - bound oscillation. Trend strength is 0 [13][32][35]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to break out upward, alumina to operate weakly, and casting aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum. Trend strengths for all are 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to news risks in the ore end. Stainless steel prices may oscillate. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][39][45]. Energy and Chemicals - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [13][8][9]. - **LPG**: It is expected to have a short - term narrow - range and strong - biased oscillation [13][16]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to operate weakly at a high level in the short term [13][16]. Other Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are under pressure. Trend strength is - 1 [13][46][48]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For polysilicon, market information changes should be monitored. Trend strengths are - 1 for industrial silicon and 0 for polysilicon [13][49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: It is in an oscillating and repeated pattern. Trend strength is 0 [13][53][54]. - **Steel Products**: For rebar and hot - rolled coil, demand needs verification, and prices are oscillating at a low level. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][57][59]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron and manganese silicon are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][60][62]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][63][65]. - **Logs**: They are in an oscillating and repeated pattern [13][66].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the stock index futures market [2]. 2. Core View Last week, the market regained its upward momentum, with the growth style showing excess performance. The core drivers of the rise were the stable policy environment after the early - month adjustment, positive news, increased dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve overseas, and improved risk appetite. Looking ahead, this week, the release of domestic economic data and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision will be key events. The potential resistance for the market approaching the phased high lies in regulatory risks. Without further risk - prevention actions, the market is expected to maintain a bullish pattern [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, most global stock indexes rose. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.95%, the S&P 500 rose 1.59%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.03%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.82%, Germany's DAX rose 0.43%, and France's CAC 40 rose 1.96%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 rose 4.07% and the Hang Seng Index rose 3.82% [8]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indexes have risen. Last week, all major domestic indexes also showed an upward trend. In terms of sectors, electronics, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, while comprehensive, banking, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the losses [1][8]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Positive factors include stable policy, positive news, improved geopolitical expectations, and stable US inflation data. Potential risks include regulatory risks [1][2]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach but avoid over - chasing. The core operating ranges for IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are 4388 - 4614 points, 2915 - 3050 points, 6911 - 7374 points, and 7129 - 7609 points respectively [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Try the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. Spot Market Review - **Industry Performance in Indexes**: In the CSI 300 index, industries showed mixed performance last week, with the information industry rising 6.81% and the pharmaceutical industry falling 1.17%. In the CSI 500 index, most industries rose, with the information industry rising 6.82% [10]. Index Valuation Tracking As of September 5, the price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.36 times, 13.98 times, 11.81 times, 33.25 times, and 46.19 times respectively [20][21]. Market Fundamentals Review - **Margin Trading Balance**: The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the report. - **Funding Rates and Central Bank Operations**: Last week, funding rates declined, and the central bank had a net injection of funds [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report covers multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The overall view is that iron ore, logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, rebar and hot-rolled coils' demand needs verification and prices will oscillate at low levels, while ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal will experience wide-range fluctuations with repeated expectations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing price of the futures contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.50% from the previous day, with a position of 543,195 lots, an increase of 4,219 lots. Imported ore prices mostly declined, with the price of PB (61.5%) dropping 9 yuan to 790 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,035 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.73%; the closing price of HC2510 was 3,395 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.47%. The trading volume and positions of both decreased [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 11, steel union weekly data showed that in terms of production, rebar decreased by 6.75 tons, hot-rolled coils increased by 10.9 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 3.41 tons. In August, China exported 951.0 tons of steel, a decrease of 32.6 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%; from January to August, the cumulative export of steel was 7,749.0 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0% [8] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing prices of silicon iron 2511 and 2601 were 5,608 yuan/ton and 5,574 yuan/ton respectively, down 18 yuan and 14 yuan; the closing prices of manganese silicon 2511 and 2601 were 5,822 yuan/ton and 5,832 yuan/ton respectively, down 4 yuan and 6 yuan [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 12, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,150 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,900 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon in September at 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from August [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1,144.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.3%; the closing price of J2601 was 1,625.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan or 0.3%. Spot prices of coking coal were mostly stable, while the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory decreased by 50 yuan to 1,445 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Logs - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 763 yuan, down 0.5% from the previous day and 1.6% week-on-week. The trading volume and positions of the 2509 contract decreased, while the trading volume of the 2511 contract increased by 70.1% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [19] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [19]