所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-05 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-05 所长 早读 委内瑞拉总统被拘至美国 观点分享： 据新华社和央视新闻报道，当地时间 1 月 3 日凌晨，美国对委内瑞拉境内发动空袭，美 国总统特朗普随后证实，美方已成功实施大规模打击，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人已被抓 获并带离该国，随后（北京时间 4 日零时），在海湖庄园举行新闻发布会，公布对委内瑞拉 行动细节。美国总统特朗普 3 日称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡。如需 要美国将发动第二波更大规模的袭击，并已做好了发动第二波攻击的准备。现在可能没必要 针对委内瑞拉发动第二波袭击。他还表示，美国大型石油公司将前往委内瑞拉。特朗普再次 上台后，以打击"毒品恐怖主义"为由试图推翻马杜罗政府，旨在昭示南美是其势力范围甚 至后花园。之后美国可能扶植亲美政权，掌控或重新布局委内瑞拉能源和关键矿产等资源。 悍然掳走一国总统，强权越来越草莽，世界越来越动荡。 | 所 长 | 首 | 推 | | --- | --- | --- | | 关注指数 | | 板块 | | 原油 ★★★★ ...

2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位盘整 | 3 | | 铜：市场谨慎，价格震荡 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：假期间震荡平稳 | 10 | | 铝：大幅上涨 | 12 | | 氧化铝：趁势反弹 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：宽幅震荡等待进一步的方向 | 14 | | 钯：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注正极实际减产情况 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂减产 | 20 | | 多晶硅：关注市场信息发酵 | 20 | | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 23 | | 硅铁：钢招定价落地，警惕盘面情绪 | 25 | | 锰硅：节后询价情绪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is to hold short positions and add short positions on rallies as appropriate. The crude oil trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1][7]. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the arbitrage opportunities of different crude oil varieties in various regions, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic, Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and Asia. It also provides key market news related to the crude oil industry, such as geopolitical events and statements from policymakers [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for all listed crude oil varieties (Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc.) are closed, with negative arbitrage incentives. For example, Arab Extra Light has an arbitrage incentive of -4.57, and the situation has improved slightly in December but remained negative throughout the year [1]. 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals have open arbitrage windows. Saharan Blend has the most attractive arbitrage opportunity with an incentive of 1.91, while Cabinda's arbitrage window is closed with an incentive of -2.72 [2]. 3. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light have open arbitrage windows with slight positive arbitrage incentives, while WTI MEH and Azeri Light have closed windows [4]. 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk are all closed, with deep negative arbitrage incentives. Ekofisk has the least favorable situation with an incentive of -26.13 [4]. 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, WTI MEH, and Eagle Ford have open arbitrage windows. Eagle Ford is the most attractive with an arbitrage incentive of 1.55, while Dubai's window is closed [5]. 6. Key Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister called for strengthening cooperation with Azerbaijan. The US claimed to have captured Venezuela's leader Maduro, and the Venezuelan state - owned oil company said the US attack did not damage oil facilities but the port was severely damaged. Brazil recognized Venezuela's Vice President Rodriguez as the leader. The US Fed's Paulson said further interest - rate cuts might be possible if inflation cools. Trump made various statements about Venezuela's oil supply, management, and US oil sales [5][6].

2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 5 日 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 观点与策略 | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注正极实际减产情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂减产 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场信息发酵 | 6 | 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 132,850 | 460 | 4,850 | 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][4] - For both rebar and hot - rolled coils, the combination of raw material winter storage and复产 expectations is likely to compress steel mill profits [2][6] - For ferrosilicon, the steel tender pricing has been settled, and caution should be exercised regarding market sentiment; for silicomanganese, there is strong post - holiday inquiry sentiment, and the market is waiting for steel tender results [2][11] - Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts and will fluctuate widely; coking coal's supply - demand situation has improved, and it will oscillate at a high level [2][14] - Logs will fluctuate at a low level [2][18] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The previous day's closing price was 789.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase. The previous day's position was 593,347 lots, a decrease of 20,254 lots. Imported ore prices were stable, and some domestic ore prices increased slightly. The trend strength is 0 [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to November, state - owned enterprises' total operating revenue was 75,625.76 billion yuan, a 1.0% year - on - year increase; total profit was 3,719.45 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year decrease; and taxes payable were 5,280.3 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamental Tracking**: For RB2605 rebar, the previous day's closing price was 3,122 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton with a 0.48% decrease. For HC2605 hot - rolled coils, the previous day's closing price was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease. Spot prices were mostly stable [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand for various steel products. In mid - December 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [6][8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,320 yuan/ton and 5,650 yuan/ton respectively. There were changes in various price differences [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 4, ferrosilicon prices in some regions increased, and silicomanganese prices in the south decreased. Hebei Steel Group finalized the January procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to December. In December 2025, Tianjin Port's manganese ore dredging volume increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. Some spot prices of coking coal and coke decreased. There were changes in basis and price differences [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 31, CCI metallurgical coal index data was released. On the 4th, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market decreased by 100 yuan/ton [14] Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different trends in closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. Spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 29, the State Council Tariff Commission released the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan", which will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [21]

观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面驱动不强，关注原油波动外溢 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | 2 | | 豆粕：假期美豆收跌，连粕或低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：节前政策情绪偏强，节后或震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：维持震荡偏强走势20260105 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：弱势显现 | 11 | | 花生：震荡偏弱 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 棕榈油主力 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,584 | -0.85% | | | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,862 | -0.20% | | | | | | 元/吨 | 9,087 | 0.01% ...

2026 年 1 月 5 日 本周热点前瞻 2026-01-05 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 1 月 7 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 2025 年 12 月外汇储备和黄金储备。 1 月 8 日 21:30，美国劳工部将公布截至 1 月 3 日当周初请失业金人数。 1 月 9 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布中国 2025 年 12 月 CPI 和 PPI。 1 月 9 日 21:30，美国劳动统计局将公布 2025 年 12 月非农就业报告。 美国总统特朗普或在 2026 年 1 月第一周指定美联储新主席人选。 周六（1 月 3 日），美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, with only 3 trading days before the holiday, the market transitioned smoothly with no significant changes in the index. The sector was mainly driven by thematic investment trading, and some technology hotspots remained active. Multiple factors such as the unexpected rebound of China's December PMI, improved trade conditions boosting exports, a longer stocking cycle due to the late Spring Festival, and the effectiveness of previous policies led to a better - than - expected stabilization of the fundamentals [1]. - The Hong Kong stock market during the holiday showed strong performance mainly driven by the technology sector, which is beneficial for the continuation of domestic thematic investment enthusiasm. The US military strike on Venezuela is the first "black swan" event in 2026. It may have an indirect impact on China through the transmission of US inflation expectations, risk appetite, and liquidity expectations, but the direct impact is expected to be limited. Overall, Sino - US economic and trade relations may remain stable. If there is some shock consolidation this week due to risk preference, it still presents a buying opportunity on the dip. Before the Spring Festival, expectations of policy开门红 and monetary easing such as the initial - of - the - year reserve requirement ratio cut still provide support [2]. - Factors to watch include domestic economic data, local two - sessions, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical trends [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. Among them, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.61%, the Spanish index rose 1.06%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.49%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.81%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% [9]. - Since 2025, major indices have shown different degrees of increase. The CSI 1000 rose 27.5%, and the ChiNext Index rose 49.6%. Last week, the major domestic indices also showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, while the GEM Index fell 1.25% [11]. - Last week, industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices showed mixed performance. In the CSI 300, the energy sector rose 2.91%, while the utilities sector fell 2.84%. In the CSI 500, the telecommunications sector rose 2.35%, and the pharmaceutical sector rose 5.6% [13]. 2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures' main contracts, the IH contract had the largest decline, and the IC contract had the largest amplitude. Both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [15]. 3. Index Valuation Tracking - As of December 26th, the price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.54 times, the CSI 300 Index was 14.16 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.78 times, the CSI 500 Index was 32.69 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 46.78 times [16][18]. 4. Market Capital Flow Review - Last week, the capital interest rate once rebounded, and the central bank had a net investment situation [21]. Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 93 points/116 points, 76 points/45 points, 186 points/261 points, and 228 points/304 points respectively [4]. Trend Strategy - Maintain a bullish view. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2601 main contract is between 4484 and 4715 points, the IH2601 main contract is between 2950 and 3087 points, the IC2601 main contract is between 7232 and 7717 points, and the IM2601 main contract is between 7316 and 7809 points [4]. Cross - variety Strategy - Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]

品 研 2026年1月5日 能化套利范式总结7 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 1) 终点支持:即顺着终点方向做优化,而非逆着终点方向做路径; 2) 路径大幅偏离下:若发生路径大幅偏离,对冲策略本身逐步转变成单品种矛盾,此时另一腿换成 其自身产业链品种会相对合理且安全; 3) 路径演绎上:波动率上仍然关注气体>液体>固体（即波动率大的品种往往会抢跑） 因而在 "做矮子里面拔将军"这件事情的时候要额外关注波动率带来的短期影响; 无论是跨期套利还是对冲套利形式,底层逻辑仍然有效,但由于资金来源多样化以及交易路径变化, 底层逻辑展现形式开始分化,跨期套利上,市场交易预期行情带来月间结构畸形以及熊市正套等进感维行 情，而跨品种对冲套利上由于能化商品逻辑趋于一致,不以终点为锚的路径交易反而事倍功半,而顺着终 点的路径优化策略仍然是当下最优解。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 chenxinchao@gtht.com 所有商品板块中,能源化工作为以对冲为主要策略载体的板块一直以来是对冲策略的高地。由于成本 端犹动以及网状供需结构,能化板块套利逻辑的开发及总结已经成为市场参与该板块的主要形式。能化板 块 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market for the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) shows increased gaming characteristics and is in a high - level oscillation state [1][4]. - For the 2602 contract, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success, and in the context of further relaxation of supply - demand and a continuous decline in the freight rate center, the bottom valuation of the 04 contract can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - In the past week, the absolute value of January's shipping capacity changed little, about 314,000 TEU/week. Maersk added an extra ship in wk3, and COSCO's AEU3 voyages from wk5 to wk7 were delayed by one week. The shipping schedules in January became more even, with the market capacity from week 1 to 5 ranging between 308,000 and 323,000 TEU. The OA Alliance's capacity peak occurred in wk4 (144,200 TEU), and the PA Alliance's in wk3 (57,700 TEU). The Gemini Alliance and MSK had relatively stable capacity deployment [4]. - The latest February shipping schedule includes 6 empty sailings and 4 undetermined ones, with an average weekly capacity of 287,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of the 4 undetermined voyages). Except for the GEMINI Alliance, other shipping companies have not released their Chinese New Year suspension plans [4]. - In terms of geopolitics, the Middle - East geopolitical situation did not significantly cool down during the New Year's Day holiday. In the demand aspect, most shipping companies felt that the cargo volume of BCO/NVO was good in January, but the FAK side was average. The cargo volume peak may appear around mid - January, then decline and drop more sharply from early February [5]. 3.2 Price - SCFIS Index: In wk1 (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), there were 17 departing vessels (318,000 TEU), of which 7 (129,000 TEU) were delayed from wk52. It is subjectively estimated that the SCFIS index on January 5 may be around 1860 points [16]. - Spot Freight Rates: The freight rate height of the 2602 contract: As MSC raises the freight rate by $300/FEU in the second half of the month, the current static FAK average in wk3 is around $2,860/FEU. The inflection point time: First, observe Maersk's cabin opening situation in wk4 next Tuesday, then observe the pricing strategies of the PA Alliance and OA Alliance for the second half of the month. The decline rate: After the freight rate peaks, the initial decline may not be large [6][19]. 3.3 Demand Side - Asian exports to Europe: The container trade volume between Asia and Europe (North - West Europe + Mediterranean) has shown certain fluctuations from 2011 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the trade volume in January was 1,768,400 TEU, and in February was 1,114,400 TEU [31]. - Asian exports to North America: The container trade volume between Asia and North America also fluctuated from 2011 to 2025. In 2025, the trade volume in January was 2,118,800 TEU, showing an 8.2% year - on - year increase [34]. 3.4 Supply Side - Supply Chain Risk Events: Geopolitical situations are disturbing. There are risks of regional escalation in the Middle - East, and instability in Yemen. Although some shipping companies have made trial voyages through the Red Sea, it does not mean the full - scale resumption of normal operations on the Red Sea route [48][49]. - Shipping Schedules: The shipping capacity in January changed little, and the February schedule has some empty sailings and undetermined voyages [4][52]. - Turnover Efficiency: It includes aspects such as sailing speed, idle capacity, regional congestion, and congestion at major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [59][61][64]. - Static Capacity: In December, the top ten shipping companies received new ships of different sizes and deployed them on different routes. In the next three months, they are also expected to receive a number of new ships [77][80].