Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The stock index futures may shift to a volatile pattern [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information 1. Index Futures Data - On July 23, the monthly contracts of the four major index futures showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.27%, IH rose 0.46%, IC rose 0.07%, and IM rose 0.01% [1] - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded. IF increased by 13,706 lots, IH by 7,078 lots, IC by 12,645 lots, and IM by 19,443 lots. In terms of positions, IF's total position increased by 1,510 lots, IH decreased by 1,022 lots, IC increased by 2,910 lots, and IM increased by 9,947 lots [1][2] 2. Basis of Index Futures - The report presents the basis trends of IF, IH, IC, and IM from June 27 to July 23 through charts [4] 3. Positions of the Top 20 Futures Members - In the IF series, IF2508's long - position decreased by 56 lots, and short - position decreased by 892 lots; IF2509's long - position decreased by 1,337 lots, and short - position decreased by 515 lots; IF2512's long - position increased by 515 lots, and short - position increased by 553 lots [5] - In the IH series, IH2508's long - position decreased by 569 lots, and short - position decreased by 476 lots; IH2509's long - position decreased by 1,610 lots, and short - position decreased by 1,337 lots; IH2512's long - position increased by 110 lots, and short - position increased by 137 lots [5] - In the IC series, IC2508's long - position decreased by 2,175 lots, and short - position decreased by 1,925 lots; IC2509's long - position increased by 997 lots, and short - position increased by 870 lots; IC2512's long - position increased by 1,088 lots, and short - position increased by 1,539 lots [5] - In the IM series, IM2508's long - position increased by 2,420 lots, and short - position increased by 2,410 lots; IM2509's long - position increased by 4,084 lots, and short - position increased by 2,791 lots; IM2512's long - position increased by 1,568 lots, and short - position increased by 2,056 lots [5] 4. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] - Important drivers include: He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30; the spot price of industrial silicon rose significantly this week, with the main contract's closing price rising from 8,745 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.92%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01%. A - share trading volume was 1.9 trillion yuan [6]

Report Overview - The report analyzes the futures index positions of public funds in Q2 2025, covering aspects such as overall positions, product performance, and overseas futures index positions [3][4]. Product Performance - Public stock long - short strategies recorded positive returns in Q2, with a median quarterly return of 1.12%, but the product scale further declined, with a total reduction of nearly 2 billion shares in 23 products [3]. Overall Futures Index Positions Market and Fund Positions - In Q2, the index started with a large gap due to tariff impacts, pushing futures index discounts to historical extremes. The long - substitution profit margin was large, leading to strong long - position demand from public funds. By Q2 2025, public funds' long positions increased to 28 billion yuan, a quarterly increase of nearly 12 billion yuan, while short positions slightly increased to 5.8 billion yuan, with a total market value of about 33.8 billion yuan, approaching the 2020 peak level but changing from a short - dominated to a long - dominated structure [4][5]. - As of the end of June 2025, the total market position of futures index was 869,454 lots (single - sided calculation), a significant decline from the previous quarter. However, public funds' positions increased counter - cyclically. Long positions increased by 73% quarter - on - quarter to 25,167 lots, accounting for a record - high 2.89% of the total market, and short positions increased by 29% to 4,930 lots, accounting for 0.6% of the total market [9]. Position by Futures Index Types - For long positions, the market values and quarter - on - quarter changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM were 3.51 billion yuan (+1.62 billion yuan), 12.6 billion yuan (+6.99 billion yuan), 7.07 billion yuan (+2.29 billion yuan), and 4.84 billion yuan (+0.92 billion yuan) respectively. For short positions, they were 0.21 billion yuan (+0.13 billion yuan), 2.05 billion yuan (-0.39 billion yuan), 0.778 billion yuan (+0.381 billion yuan), and 2.8 billion yuan (+1.26 billion yuan) respectively. Despite the small discount space of IH and IF in Q2, long positions increased significantly, especially for index ETFs and index - enhanced products. In short positions, IM positions increased for four consecutive quarters, becoming the main hedging product for public funds [10]. Position by Contract Duration - Long positions were mainly concentrated in the current - quarter contract (September), accounting for 60%, a historically high level. The proportion of short - term contract hedging in short positions further increased, with the current - month contract accounting for 45% [10]. Position by Fund Type - By the end of Q2, the number of index - type products did not increase significantly, but the position market value increased substantially, especially for passive index products, with a quarterly increase of over 11 billion yuan, highlighting the value of long substitution. At the same time, short - hedging positions of partial - stock hybrid products increased significantly, indicating stronger hedging demand [4][14]. Overseas Futures Index Positions - Public funds' positions in overseas futures index decreased by nearly 2 billion yuan, with little structural change. NASDAQ 100 Mini Futures and Hang Seng Tech Index Futures remained the two products with the largest positions, with a combined position of nearly 5 billion yuan [3].

所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 23 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：震荡上行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 特朗普称美菲达成贸易协议，将征菲律宾 19% 关税，道指加速上涨。特朗普称在白宫会见到访的菲 律宾总统马科斯，双方达成贸易协议，菲律宾将对美国开放市场、实行零关税。19% 的关税低于他两周前发 函威胁的水平 20%。继印尼之后，菲律宾成为第二个通过贸易协议降低他本月发函威胁 8 月将新征关税水 平的国家。（华尔街见闻） | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20900 | ୧୦ | 470 | 460 | 375 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20925 | l | l | ...

2025 年 07 月 23 日 短纤：成本支撑，短期震荡偏强 瓶片：成本支撑，短期震荡偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2508 | 6478 | 6448 | 30 | PF08-09 | 8 | 16 | -8 | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6470 | 6432 | 38 | PF09-10 | -68 | 26 | -94 | | | 短纤2510 | ୧୧38 | 6406 | 132 | PF基差 | 130 | 1 68 | -38 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 271130 | 268777 | 2353 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.600 | 6, 600 | 0 | | | 短纤成交量 | 2324 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Soybean Meal: Market sentiment is strong, and the market fluctuates strongly; Soybean No.1: Technically fluctuates strongly" [1] - Analyst: Wu Guangjing [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of soybean meal is strong, and the market fluctuates strongly; the technical aspect of soybean No.1 fluctuates strongly [1] - The core factors affecting soybean prices in the near term are Sino-US trade dynamics and weather conditions [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Soybean No.1 2509: The daytime closing price was 4,232 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan (+1.34%); the night session closing price was 4,241 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan (+0.66%) [1] - DCE Soybean Meal 2509: The daytime closing price was 3,086 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (+0.88%); the night session closing price was 3,092 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (+0.52%) [1] - CBOT Soybean 11: The price was 1,026 cents/bushel, down 0.75 cents (-0.07%) [1] - CBOT Soybean Meal 12: The price was 286.9 dollars/short ton, up 2 dollars (+0.70%) [1] Spot - Shandong: The price of soybean meal (43%) was 2,930 - 2,950 yuan/ton, M2509 + 0/+30, basically flat to up 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - East China: The price of soybean meal in Taizhou Huifu was 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - South China: The price of soybean meal was 2,930 - 2,970 yuan/ton, M2601 + 90, down 20 yuan to up 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Main Industry Data - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal was 12.15 million tons/day, compared with 14.95 million tons/day two days ago [1] - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal was 90.83 million tons/week, compared with 84.29 million tons/week two days ago [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 22, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The good weather in the US Midwest boosted the crop yield outlook, putting pressure on prices [3] - Sino-US trade negotiations are about to resume, which improves market sentiment and provides support [3] - The US Treasury Secretary announced that he will meet with the Chinese Finance Minister in Stockholm next week to discuss the possibility of reaching a trade agreement before August 12 to avoid the implementation of high tariffs [3] - The market is also waiting to see if the US will implement the tariff deadline for global trading partners on August 1 [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1; the trend intensity of soybean No.1 is +1 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the daytime session on the report day) [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report presents the price trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 23, 2025. Different commodities are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, providing support for the price, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: Expected to have small - scale sideways movements, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13][14]. - **Lead**: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to move sideways within a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina is expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Macro - economic sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is mainly influenced by macro - economic sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The commodity sentiment is positive, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][31][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of reaching the daily limit; the trend strength is 2. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are getting stronger, and the price is unlikely to fall, with a trend strength of 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - economic expectations, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - economic sentiment, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][41][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Driven by the macro - economic market, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Coking coal is restricted by supply - policy expectations, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][54][57]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Palm Oil**: Boosted by macro - economic factors, but caution should be exercised regarding sentiment reversal. - **Soybean Oil**: Follows the trend of the oilseed sector but is relatively weak among varieties. - **Soybean Meal**: Market sentiment is strong, and the price is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Soybean No. 1**: Technically, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Corn**: Expected to move sideways. - **Sugar**: Expected to have narrow - range consolidation. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. - **Egg**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling hens decreases. - **Live Pig**: Macro - economic sentiment is strong, waiting for verification at the end of the month. - **Peanut**: Expected to move sideways [4]. Others - **Log**: Expected to have repeated sideways movements [2][58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 23, 2025, including股指期货 (strong - biased oscillation),国债期货 (weak - biased oscillation), and multiple commodity futures (strong - biased, weak - biased, or wide - range oscillations) [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On July 22, 2025, the domestic commodity market saw a rare limit - up surge, with six major futures contracts such as glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and polysilicon closing at the limit - up. The night session of domestic black futures continued to rise, with coking coal up 11% and coke up 5.29%. International precious metal futures generally rose, while international oil prices slightly declined [12]. 2. Macro - economic News - The "Rural Highway Regulations" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high - quality development of rural highways. The US and China may discuss issues such as China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The WTO released an arbitration ruling on a Sino - EU trade dispute, and China expressed dissatisfaction. As of the end of June, the number of participants in basic old - age, unemployment, and work - related injury insurance in China increased steadily year - on - year. In the first half of the year, non - bank cross - border capital inflows in China reached $127.3 billion, and foreign investors net - bought domestic stocks and funds worth $10.1 billion, reversing the net - selling trend of the past two years [7]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 22, 2025, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed a trend of opening slightly higher, first falling then rising, and oscillating upwards. It is expected that on July 23, stock index futures will oscillate strongly. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4132 and 4168 points and support levels at 4110 and 4090 points [16][20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 22, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts T2509 and TL2509 showed a downward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate weakly. T2509 has support levels at 108.50 and 108.45 yuan and resistance levels at 108.70 and 108.79 yuan; TL2509 has support levels at 119.2 and 118.6 yuan and resistance levels at 119.8 and 120.1 yuan [38][44]. 3.3 Precious Metal Futures - On July 22, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2510 and the silver futures contract AG2510 both showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate strongly. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 794.9 and 798.8 yuan/gram; AG2510 will attack resistance levels at 9550 and 9600 yuan/kg and may reach a new high since listing [44][53]. 3.4 Base Metal Futures - On July 22, 2025, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed different trends. It is expected that on July 23, copper futures CU2509 will oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels at 80400 and 80800 yuan/ton; aluminum futures AL2509 will also oscillate strongly with resistance levels at 21000 and 21080 yuan/ton [56][61]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Futures - On July 22, 2025, the crude oil futures contract SC2509 declined. It is expected that on July 23, it will oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 500 and 497 yuan/barrel and resistance levels at 506 and 510 yuan/barrel. Other energy and chemical futures such as PTA, PVC, and methanol also have corresponding trends and forecasts [95]. 3.6 Agricultural Futures - On July 22, 2025, the soybean meal futures contract M2509 and the natural rubber futures contract RU2509 showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate strongly. M2509 has resistance levels at 3100 and 3109 yuan/ton; RU2509 has resistance levels at 15280 and 15350 yuan/ton [104][106]. 3.7 Other Commodity Futures - On July 22, 2025, industrial silicon, polysilicon, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and other commodity futures contracts showed significant increases, with many closing at the limit - up. It is expected that on July 23, they will continue to show strong - biased or wide - range oscillations. For example, coking coal futures JM2509 has a high probability of closing at the limit - up of 1048.5 yuan/ton [90][91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend strength of silicomanganese is 1, both indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) rating [3]. 2. Core Viewpoint - The silicomanganese market is expected to have a relatively strong and volatile trend driven by the macro - market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of FeSi2508 and FeSi2509 are 5858 and 5874 respectively, with an increase of 206 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 2,281 and 310,983, and the open interests are 8,773 and 191,798. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of FeMn2508 and FeMn2509 are 6006 and 6012 respectively, with an increase of 100 and 98 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 1,259 and 410,587, and the open interests are 11,074 and 346,266 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5300 yuan/ton, the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5700 yuan/ton (+20), the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.3 yuan/ton - degree (+0.3), and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) is - 558 yuan/ton (-206), the basis of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) is - 312 yuan/ton (-78). The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton (0), and that of silicomanganese 2508 - 2509 is - 6 yuan/ton (+2). The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 is 148 yuan/ton (-106), and that of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 is 138 yuan/ton (-108) [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 22, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (+50), in Qinghai is 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (+70), in Gansu is 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton (+100). The price range of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, in Qinghai is 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1000 - 1020 dollars/ton, and that of 75 is 1080 - 1110 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton (+50), and the southern quotation is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - A steel mill in Shandong's Rizhao company set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5840 yuan/ton in cash, a 350 - yuan/ton increase from the previous round, with a quantity of 420 tons. Another steel mill in Shandong set the purchase price of silicomanganese at 5950 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 900 tons [2].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the container shipping index fluctuated weakly. The main 2510 contract closed at 1548.0 points, down 6.10%, with an increase of 549 lots; the second main 2512 contract closed at 1708.7 points, down 5.44%, with an increase of 419 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2249.7 points, down 42.2 points, with a decrease of 1644 lots [8]. - In terms of spot freight rates, there are signs of a price peak in early August, with the average large - container price at around $3400/FEU. Attention should be paid to how other shipping companies respond after Maersk's price cut [9]. - Fundamentally, benefiting from strong FOB cargo volume, the loading situation of shipping companies at the end of July was optimistic, and the cargo volume in early August still has support. Looking at the monthly level, August is likely to be a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is not clear. - For the 2508 contract, the final delivery settlement price is expected to be around 2250 points, with limited unilateral trading value. For the 2510 contract, October is the traditional off - season for European routes. Shipping companies need to actively suspend voyages to ease the decline of freight rates. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of shorting at high levels, and hold short positions in 10, 10 - 12 reverse spreads, and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: EC2508 closed at 2,249.7, down 2.20%, with a trading volume of 7,001 and an open interest of 12,393, a decrease of 1,644; EC2510 closed at 1,548.0, down 6.10%, with a trading volume of 66,658 and an open interest of 51,734, an increase of 549; EC2512 closed at 1,708.7, down 5.44%, with a trading volume of 7,398 and an open interest of 8,533, an increase of 419 [1]. 2. Freight Index Data - **SCFIS**: The European route was at 2,400.50 points, down 0.9%; the US - West route was at 1,301.81 points, up 2.8%. - **SCFI**: The European route was at $2,079/TEU, down 1.0%; the US - West route was at $2,142/FEU, down 2.4% [1]. 3. Spot Freight Data - **Gemini Alliance**: Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price in week 32 was reported at $2900/FEU, and the booking price after opening increased to $2950/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd's FAK in late July was around $3300/FEU and around $3500/FEU in early August. - **OA Alliance**: In early August, COSCO and OOCL's freight rates remained the same, with FAK reported at $3600 and $3500/FEU respectively; Evergreen's online e - commerce platform reported $3760/FEU in August, up $100 - 200/FEU compared to early July. - **PA Alliance**: Yang Ming plans to increase the price by $200 to $3300/EFU in early August, and ONE's offline price remained at $3300/FEU, with the online e - commerce platform increasing by $300/FEU. - **MSC**: The FAK in early August increased by $200 to $3640/FEU, the same as in early July [9]. 4. Shipping Capacity and Schedule Data - Shipping capacity data for China - Europe routes from January to December 2024 and 2025 are presented in the form of weekly and monthly average weekly shipping capacity charts, and the shipping schedules from July to September 2025 are also provided [5][6]. 5. Macroeconomic News - The cease - fire negotiation in Gaza has made significant progress. - The US will mediate the talks between Israel and Syria on Thursday to avoid a new crisis. - Israel's Defense Minister Katz said it is possible to launch an offensive against Iran again. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with the Philippines, with a 19% tariff imposed on the Philippines. - Trump said the US has reached a large - scale agreement with Japan, with Japan investing $550 billion in the US, and the US getting 90% of the profits. Japan will open its trade and pay a 15% reciprocal tariff [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing a bullish and volatile trend driven by macro sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: For rebar, prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 50 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton respectively. For hot-rolled coil, prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rose by 50 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis for RB2510 decreased by 33 yuan/ton, and for HC2510 also decreased by 33 yuan/ton. The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 7 yuan/ton, while the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 1 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 remained unchanged, and the spread between HC2601 and RB2601 decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Power Consumption**: In June, the total social power consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative total social power consumption was 4841.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The power consumption of the secondary industry was 3148.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [3]. - **Industry Policies**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, to promote structural adjustment, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [4]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: According to the weekly data from Steelhome on July 17, rebar production decreased by 7.6 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 2 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 0.96 tons. Rebar inventory increased by 2.89 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.65 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 1.92 tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.28 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 0.61 tons [4]. - **Steel Production**: In early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease; and 19.88 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons from the previous ten-day period, a 2.4% decrease [4]. - **Financial Data**: At the end of June 2025, the broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [4]. - **Steel Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel products, a decrease of 900,000 tons from the previous month, an 8.5% decrease; the average price was $687.1 per ton, a decrease of $10.8 per ton from the previous month, a 1.5% decrease. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, an increase of 4.908 million tons compared to the same period last year, a 9.2% increase [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a moderately bullish trend [4][5].