Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term pure benzene market will mainly fluctuate, with weak current situation and strong expectations, and will remain within the range of 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton. The overseas gasoline blending logic hyped in the early stage has gradually subsided. The pure benzene market in December has obvious inventory swelling pressure, while the market has strong expectations of supply contraction after January 2026. The import expectation has large differences in the market. The demand for pure benzene downstream is weak in December and may improve after January. The overall situation of benzene - ethylene downstream 3S is high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit. The benzene - ethylene market will maintain a range - bound pattern [3][89] - The reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5500 yuan/ton based on the crude oil price of 60 US dollars. The EB processing fee will expand in the short term [3][89] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Pure benzene domestic production**: In December, 110,000 tons of production was under maintenance, and it is expected to remain at 110,000 tons in January (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Some Shandong local refineries will increase their production capacity after solving the quota problem. Pay attention to the new production increment of BASF Zhanjiang in January [3][89] - **Pure benzene imports**: The external market pressure is still high, and the selling pressure of South Korean pure benzene from November to December is large, with high imports. There are large differences in the import volume in January, which is expected to remain at around 4.5 million tons, and the imports after February need further evaluation [3][89] Demand - **Styrene**: In December, 85,000 tons of production was under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January. The plant operation will gradually resume after December. Pay attention to the production increment brought by the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's plant [3][89] - **Caprolactam**: CPL negative feedback has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their load. It is expected that 40,000 tons of production will be under maintenance in December and 60,000 tons in January. Focus on the commissioning of Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the plant [3][89] - **Phenol**: The operation is gradually picking up. 30,000 tons of production was under maintenance in December and 10,000 tons in January. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new plant may be postponed [3][89] - **Aniline**: 70,000 tons of production was under maintenance in December, with a loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [3][89] - **Styrene downstream 3S hard plastics**: The terminal home appliance market is entering the end - of - year procurement season, and the demand has slightly improved, but 3S still faces the problem of high inventory [3][89] Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Mainly range - bound trading [3][89] - **Inter - period trading**: No trading strategy for now [3][89] - **Inter - commodity trading**: Continue to hold the PX - BZ position [3][89]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：下游逐渐负反馈，加工费压缩 供应 工厂开工维持高位，平均开工95.5%，纺纱用直纺涤短开机率回落至96.8%（恒逸高新25万吨检修至月底） 需求 12月后，内需终端订单加速走弱，纱线、织造、坯布继续累库，后续需求预期较弱部分下游可能考虑1月中旬提前放假，因而纱线、织造环节 开工部分加速下行，实物库存偏高但距离极限仍有距离，原料备库中性偏低，后续下游预计保持刚需补库节奏，等待低位。短纤小幅去库， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on December 12, 2025, including whether they will be strong, weak, or in a wide - range or narrow - range oscillation, and gives corresponding resistance and support levels [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook Points - Stock index futures are likely to oscillate strongly. Specific contracts and their resistance and support levels are provided, such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate strongly, with corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. - Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate futures are likely to oscillate strongly, while alumina, glass, soda ash, and crude oil futures are likely to oscillate weakly. Resistance and support levels are given for each [2][3][4]. - Rebar futures are likely to oscillate in a wide range, and hot - rolled coil futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate [4]. - Iron ore futures are likely to oscillate strongly, and coking coal futures are likely to oscillate weakly [4]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes continued implementation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and sets eight key tasks for 2026 [7]. - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council emphasizes the necessity of reunification and opposes "Taiwan independence" [7]. - Mexico will impose tariffs on some products from China and other Asian countries, and China has launched a trade - investment barrier investigation [8]. - Regarding the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles, China welcomes price - commitment consultations but hopes for fair negotiation [8]. - The World Bank raises China's 2025 economic growth forecast to 4.9% [8]. - The US trade deficit in September narrows significantly, with exports rising and imports growing moderately [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US surges, while the number of continued jobless claims drops [9]. - The US Treasury Secretary proposes a more relaxed regulatory environment and monitors AI - related financial risks [9]. - The President of Ukraine expresses willingness to hold elections under certain conditions [9]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On December 11, US and Brent crude oil futures decline. Barclays expects an oil supply surplus in 2026 [9]. - International precious metal futures generally rise on December 11, affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical events [10]. - Most London base metals rise on December 11, except for nickel [10]. - The IEA lowers the global oil supply surplus forecast for 2026 and raises the 2025 oil consumption growth forecast [11]. - OPEC predicts a balanced global oil market in 2026, contrary to the general expectation of a supply surplus [12]. - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rise on December 11, and the central parity rate is adjusted upward [12]. - The US dollar index falls on December 11, and most non - US currencies rise [12]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - On December 11, stock index futures such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 decline, with varying degrees of downward pressure [13][14]. - A - share markets decline on December 11, with over 4300 stocks falling, and trading volume increases [15]. - Hong Kong stock markets decline on December 11, with semiconductor, consumer, and pharmaceutical stocks leading the decline [15]. - US stock markets close with mixed results on December 11, and European stock markets rise [16]. - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly on December 12, and the December 2025 outlook also shows a strong - wide - range oscillation trend [17]. 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On December 11, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rise. The central bank conducts 1186 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 622 billion yuan [36][37]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate strongly on December 12 [37][39]. 3.4.3 Precious Metal Futures - On December 11, gold and silver futures rise. Silver futures set new highs during night trading, and their upward trend is obvious [41][48][49]. - Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly on December 12, and the December 2025 outlook also shows a positive trend, with silver likely to set new highs [41][50]. 3.4.4 Base Metal Futures - On December 11, copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin futures show different trends. Copper and tin rise, while aluminum and zinc decline slightly [53][59][70][74]. - These base metal futures are expected to have different trends on December 12, with most showing a strong - oscillation or wide - range - oscillation trend [53][60][70][75]. 3.4.5 Other Futures - On December 11, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and crude oil futures show different trends [79][86][90][94][100][102][107][111]. - Their trends on December 12 are predicted, with some expected to oscillate strongly, some to oscillate weakly, and some to oscillate in a wide range or consolidate [79][86][90][94][100][102][107][111].

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/12/12 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | 王蒙 | Z0012691 | Z0002529 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | Z0021479 | F03142619 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 前一交易日 | 今天 | 上周 | 上月 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/12/12 | 2025/12/11 | 2025/12/5 | 2025/11/14 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | 12. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [1] Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.86, or 1.47%, to $57.60 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.93, or 1.49%, to $61.28 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan per barrel, or 1.45%, to 434.80 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [10] Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -1.16 to -8.39 USD/barrel, showing weak competitiveness [2] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has no cost - advantage against Bonny Light, with an arbitrage space of -0.3 USD/barrel; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities with spaces of 0.93 and 2.68 USD/barrel respectively; Urals has a huge arbitrage space of 23.2 USD/barrel due to sanctions [4] 3. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light show arbitrage opportunities against Forties, with arbitrage spaces ranging from 0.9 to 2.23 USD/barrel; Azeri Light has a weak arbitrage space [5] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford against Urals are closed, with large negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness [6][7] 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars against Dubai present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces of 1.2, 5.08, and 1.33 USD/barrel respectively; Basrah Heavy and Maya have closed arbitrage windows [8] 6. Key Market News - Trump promised to contribute to Ukraine's security efforts if Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached; Trump mentioned that actions in Venezuela will soon take place on land; the Central Economic Work Conference was held on December 10 - 11 [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Related Categories Platinum and Lithium Fundamental Data - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 442.40 with a -0.46% change; the gold exchange platinum closed at 436.11 with a -0.49% change; the New York platinum main - continuous contract closed at 1713.90 with a 2.45% change; and the London spot platinum closed at 1696.00 with a 2.46% change [2] - Lithium futures 2606 closed at 385.25 with a -0.62% change; the RMB spot lithium closed at 356.00 with a -3.26% change; the New York lithium main - continuous contract closed at 1540.00 with a 2.19% change; and the London spot lithium closed at 1492.00 with a 1.05% change [2] - Trading volume and open interest data for Guangdong platinum, NYMEX platinum, Guangdong lithium, and NYMEX lithium are presented, showing changes compared to the previous day [2] - ETF holdings of platinum and lithium (in ounces from the previous day) and their changes compared to the previous day are given [2] - Inventory data for Guangdong platinum, NYMEX platinum, Guangdong lithium, and NYMEX lithium (in ounces from the previous day) and their changes are provided [2] - Various price spreads, such as PT9995 to PT2606, Guangdong platinum 2606 to 2610, and others, along with their changes compared to the previous day, are shown [2] - Exchange - rate data including the US dollar index, US dollar to RMB (CNY spot), US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot), and US dollar to RMB (6M forward) and their changes are presented [2] Macro and Industry News - The Swiss central bank maintained the interest rate at zero [4] - Modi and Trump had a phone call regarding trade and energy issues [4] - The US House of Representatives shelved the motion to impeach Trump after a vote [4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week had the largest single - week increase since the pandemic [5] - The Federal Reserve reappointed 11 regional Fed presidents to ease concerns about personnel uncertainty [5] - The US, Ukraine, and the EU will hold a meeting on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Paris on Saturday [5] - Vietnam's National Assembly amended the law to ban the export of rare - earth ore, effective next January [5] - Zelensky responded to the issue of territorial compromise, stating that the stance of the Ukrainian people must be shown through elections or referendums [5] - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th, and Xi Jinping attended and delivered an important speech [5] Trend Strength - The trend strength of platinum is 1, and that of lithium is 1, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for coke and coking coal are both "wide - range fluctuations" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The coke and coking coal markets are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of JM2601 was 934 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-3.0%), and J2601 was 1491.5 yuan/ton, down 35.5 yuan/ton (-2.3%). The trading volume of JM2601 was 212,855 hands, with a position of 199,252 hands (a decrease of 20,740 hands), and J2601 had a trading volume of 18,180 hands, a position of 25,407 hands (a decrease of 631 hands) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices of coking coal and coke remained unchanged. For example, the price of Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, and the price of Hebei quasi - one thousand - gun coke was 1690 yuan/ton. The cost of Mongolia 5 coking coal warehouse receipts decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2601 in Shanxi increased by 29 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton, and the basis of J2601 in Shanxi quasi - one arrival price increased by 35.5 yuan/ton to 190.5 yuan/ton. The spread of JM2601 - JM2605 increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 101 yuan/ton, and the spread of J2601 - J2605 increased by 8.5 yuan/ton to - 165.5 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th, with important leaders attending [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is 0, and the trend intensity of coking coal is also 0 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The log market is in a low - level shock state [1]. - The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral perspective [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2601 contract on 2025/12/11, the closing price was 746, with a daily decline of 1.3% and a weekly decline of 2.5%; the trading volume was 7123, with a daily decline of 40.1% and a weekly increase of 142%; the open interest was 14509, with a daily increase of 11.0% and a weekly decline of 5%. Similar details are provided for the 2603 and 2605 contracts [2]. - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The spread between spot and 2601 contract on 2025/12/11 was - 16, with a daily decline of 62.5% and a weekly decline of 61%. Similar spread data is presented for other contract combinations [2]. - **Spot Market**: Various types of logs and wood squares in different regions (Shandong and Jiangsu) showed mostly stable prices with some minor fluctuations. For example, the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was priced at 740 yuan/m³ on 2025/12/11, with a daily change of 0.0% and a weekly decline of 1.3% [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th, 2025, with important leaders in attendance [4].

2025年12月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：表需数据偏弱，低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：表需数据偏弱，低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：现货价格短期坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：现货价格短期坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | MY V | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 780. 0 | -7.5 | -0. 95% | | | 12601 | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive trading day on December 11, 2025, mainly due to active technical buying, U.S. soybean sales to China, and price support from neighboring corn and wheat futures [1][3]. - As of the week ending November 13, 2025, the net sales volume of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year was 695,598 tons, close to the lower limit of market expectations. Traders continued to focus on China's purchasing situation [3]. - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, indicating a relatively strong trend, while the trend strength of soybean No. 1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton during the day session and 2770 yuan/ton during the night session, with a daily increase of 0 (+0.00%) and a night - session increase of 16 (+0.58%); DCE soybean No. 1 2601 closed at 4173 yuan/ton during the day session and 4148 yuan/ton during the night session, with a decrease of 19 (-0.46%). CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1093.75 cents per bushel, up 1.75 (+0.16%); CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at 302.2 dollars per short ton, up 1.3 (+0.43%) [1]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of soybean meal in different regions varied. For example, in Shandong, the basis for 12 - January was M2601 + 30/+60, up 20 to 50 compared to the previous day; in Zhangjiagang Dafu, the price was 3040 - 3090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 12.85 million tons per day, compared with 14.67 million tons per day in the previous trading day. The inventory was 104.55 million tons per week, compared with 107.34 million tons per week in the previous week [1]. [Macroeconomic and Industry News] - According to Beijing Derunlin on December 12, 2025, CBOT soybean futures rose on December 11 due to active technical buying, U.S. soybean sales to China, and price support from neighboring corn and wheat futures [1][3]. - As of the week ending November 13, 2025, the net sales volume of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year was 695,598 tons, compared with 510,554 tons in the previous week. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed that private exporters reported sales of 26.4 million tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 22.6 million tons to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year [3]. [Trend Strength] - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and the trend strength of soybean No. 1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the reporting day [3].