Report Information - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [1][4][12][15][19][23][30][32][33][37] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research [5][12][16][19][23][30][33][37] Overall Core Views - Palm oil: With the negative impact of US soybean oil SRE exhausted, international oils are rising [2][4] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is consolidating at a high level [2][4] - Soybean meal: After the overnight slight increase in US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][12] - Soybean No.1: Rebound and fluctuate [2][12] - Corn: Oscillate [2][15] - Sugar: Fluctuate in a narrow range [2][19] - Cotton: Futures prices are oscillating strongly [2][23] - Eggs: Near - term, focus on the rhythm of old hen culling; long - term sentiment remains weak [2][30] - Live pigs: The positive impact of reserve purchases has materialized, awaiting spot market confirmation [2][33] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][37] Industry - Specific Summaries Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,510 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.78% increase and 9,570 yuan/ton at night with a 0.63% increase; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,492 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.83% increase and 8,428 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.75% decrease [5] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,540 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,670 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [5] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 30 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 178 yuan/ton [5] - **Macro and Industry News** - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 3.03% compared to the same period last month [6] - The US EPA announced the results of small refinery biofuel exemption applications, and will return 1.39 billion gallons of RIN credit for 2023 and 2024 [9] - Pro Farmer predicted record - high average yields for US corn and soybeans in 2025 [10] - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area was estimated at 18 million hectares, up 8.4% from the previous year, and production was estimated at 50.9 million tons, up 5.6% [10] - In the 34th week, oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume was 227 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%, 134,300 tons lower than expected [10] - **Trend Intensity** - Palm oil trend intensity: 1; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3985 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.28% decrease and 3996 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% increase; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3088 yuan/ton during the day with a - 1.28% decrease and 3108 yuan/ton at night with a 0.45% increase [12] - Spot: The price of 43% soybean meal was 3060 - 3110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan to unchanged from the previous day [12] - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.1 million tons, and the previous week's inventory was 97.4 million tons [12] - **Macro and Industry News** - On August 22, CBOT soybeans hit a two - month high, supported by Chinese demand expectations and strong soybean oil [12][14] - **Trend Intensity** - Soybean meal trend intensity: 0; soybean No.1 trend intensity: 0 [14] Corn - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: C2509 closed at 2214 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.27% decrease and 2219 yuan/ton at night with a 0.23% increase; C2511 closed at 2175 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.32% increase and 2174 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.05% decrease [16] - Spot: Jinzhou's closing price was 2260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangdong Shekou's price was 2360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [16] - Basis: The main 11 - contract basis was 85 yuan/ton; the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 39 yuan/ton [16] - **Macro and Industry News** - Northern corn port prices were 2210 - 2230 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou's prices were stable [17] - **Trend Intensity** - Corn trend intensity: 0 [18] Sugar - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: The main futures price was 5670 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - Basis: The mainstream spot basis was 310 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [19] - **Macro and Industry News** - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation has weakened [19] - China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [19] - CAOC estimated domestic sugar production, consumption, and imports for 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [20] - ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season [21] - **Trend Intensity** - Sugar trend intensity: 0 [21] Cotton - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: CF2601 closed at 14030 yuan/ton during the day with no change and 14155 yuan/ton at night with a 0.89% increase [23] - Spot: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15272 yuan/ton, unchanged [23] - Spread: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [23] - **Macro and Industry News** - Domestic cotton spot trading was partially good, and cotton yarn market trading was okay, while the cotton fabric market was weak [24] - ICE cotton futures rose slightly on Friday, driven by US interest - rate cut expectations [25] - **Trend Intensity** - Cotton trend intensity: 0 [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Egg 2509 closed at 2920 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.21% decrease; Egg 2601 closed at 3434 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.67% decrease [30] - Spot: The price of Liaoning eggs was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan [30] - **Trend Intensity** - Egg trend intensity: 0 [30] Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Live pig 2509 closed at 13760 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; Live pig 2511 closed at 13840 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; Live pig 2601 closed at 14145 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [33] - Spot: The price of Henan live pigs was 13780 yuan/ton, unchanged [33] - Spread: The live pig 2509 basis was 20 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the 9 - 11 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [33] - **Market Logic** - In August, the planned出栏 volume of large farms increased, demand growth was limited, and the spot market underperformed expectations. The reserve purchase policy has been implemented, but supply pressure needs multiple rounds of reserve purchases to ease [35] - **Trend Intensity** - Live pig trend intensity: 0 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: PK510 closed at 8008 yuan/ton with a 0.40% increase; PK511 closed at 7802 yuan/ton with a 0.64% increase [37] - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8200 yuan/ton, unchanged [37] - Spread: The Liaoning 308 common peanut basis was 192 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 206 yuan/ton [37] - **Spot Market Focus** - In Henan, the volume of new peanuts on the market was small, demand was weak, and prices were mostly weak [38] - **Trend Intensity** - Peanut trend intensity: 0 [41]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 119,610 | -220 | -990 | -1,570 | -3,760 | -3,790 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,750 | -45 | -260 | -235 | -150 | -130 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 111,254 | 20,539 | 23,605 | 36,390 | -22,504 | 10,036 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 113,666 | 13,930 | -30,294 | 26,995 | -112,337 | -3,949 ...

铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 770. 0 | -2.5 | -0. 32% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 452. 625 | 1.051 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | 卡粉 (65%) | 877.0 | 881.0 | -4. 0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 767.0 | 769.0 | -2.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 740. 0 | 745. 0 | -5.0 | | | | 超特(56.5%) | 650. 0 | 650. 0 | 0. 0 | | | 国产矿 | 邮邦 (66%) | 922. 0 | 922. 0 | 0. 0 | | | | 莱芜(65%) | 840. 0 | 840. 0 | 0. 0 | | 价差 | | | 昨日(元/吨) | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,352 | 7,267 | 85 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2510 | 7,378 | 7,289 | 89 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB08-EB09 | -26 | -22 | -4 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB09-EB10 | -9 | -85 | 76 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current market rally is mainly driven by risk appetite, with investors' bullish sentiment leading to continuous capital inflows and forming a positive feedback loop. The correlation between the current market and fundamentals is low. In the absence of policy cooling, the strong market trend is expected to continue [3] - Key factors to watch include domestic policy trends and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies [4] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - For intraday trading, refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [5] Trend Strategy - Adopt a long - position approach. The core operating ranges for IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are 4262 - 4482 points, 2868 - 3001 points, 6606 - 7049 points, and 7091 - 7569 points respectively [5] Cross - variety Strategy - Given the potential rotation in the market under bullish sentiment, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for cross - variety strategies [6] Group 4: Market Review and Data Global Index Performance - Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.53%, the S&P 500 rose 0.27%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.58%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 2%, Germany's DAX rose 0.02%, and France's CAC40 rose 0.58%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.72% and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.49% [9] Domestic Index Performance - Since 2025, the ChiNext Index has led the gains among major domestic indices. Last week, all major domestic indices rose, with the ChiNext Index leading the way [7][9] Industry Performance in Indexes - In the CSI 300 Index, the telecommunications and information sectors had significant gains last week. In the CSI 500 Index, the information and telecommunications sectors also performed well [11] Futures Market Performance - Last week, the IF futures contract had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the major futures contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [13][14][15] Index Valuation - As of August 15, the P/E ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 15.89 times, 13.46 times, 11.49 times, 30.33 times, and 41.17 times respectively [20][21] Market Fundamentals - The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are important indicators of market capital inflows. Last week, the capital interest rate rebounded, and the central bank had a net capital injection [23]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bearish impact of the US soybean oil SRE is over, leading to an increase in international oil prices [1]. - The trading of soybean shortages in the fourth quarter has paused, and soybean oil prices are consolidating at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and daily price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are presented. For example, the palm oil futures price closed at 9,510 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.78% increase, and 9,570 yuan/ton during the night session with a 0.63% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures, along with their changes, are provided. For instance, the trading volume of palm oil futures decreased by 9,332 lots to 48,758 lots, and the open interest decreased by 16,867 lots to 55,391 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are listed. For example, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in Guangdong and Guangxi regions is shown. For example, the basis of palm oil in Guangdong is 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts, such as the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, soybean oil and palm oil futures, and the 9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures, are presented [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 is estimated to have increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, with different growth rates in different regions [3]. - The US EPA announced the results of small refinery biofuel exemption applications, including the approval of 63 full - exemption and 77 partial - exemption applications, and the rejection of 28 applications. It also clarified the use of RIN credit and will return 1.39 billion gallons of RIN credit for 2023 and 2024 [6]. - The US EPA plans to release a supplementary proposal for the 2026 - 2027 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) [7]. - Pro Farmer predicts record - high average yields for US corn and soybeans in 2025, with corn yield at 182.7 bushels/acre and total production at 16.204 billion bushels, and soybean yield at 53.0 bushels/acre and total production at 4.246 billion bushels [7]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to be 18 million hectares, stable from last month's estimate and 8.4% higher than the previous year. The production is estimated to be 50.9 million tons, stable from last month's estimate and 5.6% higher than the previous year [7]. - In the 34th week (August 16 - 22), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%, 134,300 tons lower than the estimate [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, indicating different levels of bullishness or bearishness [8].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the egg market, stating that in the near - term, attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens, and in the long - term, market sentiment remains weak [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg 2509 is 2,920 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.21%, a trading volume change of - 22,993, and an open interest change of - 10,271. The closing price of egg 2601 is 3,434 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.67%, a trading volume change of 2,423, and an open interest change of 7,456 [2] - **Spread Data**: The egg 9 - 10 spread is - 113 (previous day: - 131), and the egg 9 - 1 spread is - 514 (previous day: - 558) [2] - **Spot Price Data**: The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.20 yuan/jin, 2.64 yuan/jin, 3.00 yuan/jin, and 3.04 yuan/jin respectively, with some prices decreasing compared to the previous day [2] - **Feed and Related Product Prices**: The latest corn spot price is 2,328 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price is 3,050 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 13.78 yuan/kg [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1]. - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 79,180 yuan, down 3,820 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume was 23,175 lots, down 7,397 lots; and its open interest was 51,084 lots, down 5,986 lots. The 2511 contract's closing price was 78,960 yuan, down 3,800 yuan; its trading volume was 932,675 lots, up 154,848 lots; and its open interest was 362,254 lots, down 27,815 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 24,990 lots, up 670 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 4,720 yuan, up 2,520 yuan; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 220 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 934 dollars, down 14 dollars; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,055 yuan, down 55 yuan [2]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,900 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan, down 1,300 yuan [2]. - **Related Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 36,150 yuan, down 265 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,460 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 83,925 yuan/ton, down 1,299 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,900 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [3]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. (300919.SZ) is involved in salt - lake lithium mines in Argentina through holding and participating in projects. It controls over 10 million tons of LCE, and the value of its lithium resources has increased with the rising lithium carbonate price [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of oil is slightly stronger, while the crack spread of asphalt is declining [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 increased by 0.69% and 0.52% respectively during the day and 0.43% during the night session. The trading volume of BU2509 decreased by 1,274 lots, while that of BU2510 increased by 16,086 lots. The open interest of BU2509 decreased by 2,654 lots, and that of BU2510 decreased by 3,045 lots. The total market warehouse receipts of asphalt remained unchanged at 72,650 lots [1] - **Spot Market**: The wholesale price of asphalt in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, and the wholesale price in the Yangtze River Delta remained unchanged at 3,720 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate increased by 1.31% to 36.92%, and the refinery inventory rate increased by 2.02% to 27.81% [1] - **Spread**: The basis (Shandong - 09) decreased by 34 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton, the 09 - 10 inter - period spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to 37 yuan/ton, the Shandong - South China spread remained unchanged at 20 yuan/ton, and the East China - South China spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton [1] 2. Market Information - In September 2025, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries is 1.557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 275,000 tons (21.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 467,000 tons (42.9%) [15] - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 391,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The shipment volume in the East China region decreased significantly, while that in the Northwest region increased [15] - From August 14 - 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% [15] - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 17.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [15]

2025 年 8 月 25 日 燃料油：涨势明显，短期强势延续 低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏弱，外盘现货高低硫 价差小幅反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 漆 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2.779 | 1.72% | | 2.767 | 2.03% | | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2.774 | 2.03% | | 2,763 | 1.73% | | | | LU2510 | 元/晓 | 3,493 | 0. 32% | | 3,469 | 0.26% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,499 | 0. 26% | | 3.467 | 0. 17% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 特仓变动 | | | 期货 | FU2510 | ક | 63 ...