Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the cotton industry. 2. Core View In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend, but the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes in the spot basis. ICE cotton is likely to remain in a narrow - range low - level oscillation [1][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 63.91, closed at 63.83, down 0.12 or 0.19%, with a trading volume of 86,499 lots and an open interest of 181,633 lots [4]. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 13,735, closed at 13,835, up 85 or 0.62%, with a trading volume of 1,229,713 lots and an open interest of 397,499 lots [4]. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 19,950, closed at 19,980, down 25 or 0.12%, with a trading volume of 33,795 lots and an open interest of 20,835 lots [4]. 3.2基本面 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: It has been fluctuating in a narrow range at a low level this week. US cotton export data is still average, lacking upward momentum. However, the weak US dollar and the absence of new negative news have led to some bargain - hunting, providing support for ICE cotton futures [5]. - USDA December monthly supply - demand report: In the US cotton balance sheet, the 2025/26 US cotton production is estimated to be 14.27 million bales, 150,000 bales higher than the November estimate. US cotton exports are lowered by 100,000 bales to 1.6 million bales, and the ending stocks increase by 200,000 bales to 4.5 million bales. In the global cotton balance sheet, the 2025/26 global cotton production is estimated to be 119.79 million bales, 290,000 bales lower than the November estimate. The global cotton consumption is estimated to be 118.61 million bales, 270,000 bales lower than the November report. The ending stocks are estimated to be 75.97 million bales, slightly increasing by 40,000 bales compared to the November report and 1.36 million bales more than the 2024/25 ending stocks [6]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending November 13, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 42,600 tons, a 36% week - on - week decrease and a 10% increase compared to the four - week average. The 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 25,700 tons, a 17% week - on - week decline and a 27% decrease compared to the four - week average [7]. - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: The Cotton Association of India estimates that the 2025/26 Indian cotton will have a high carry - over stock. The production is forecast to increase by 450,000 bales to 30.95 million bales, while the consumption is expected to decrease by 500,000 bales to 29.5 million bales. The ending stocks are expected to increase by 4.65 million bales to 10.709 million bales [8]. - Brazil: CONAB lowers the 2025/26 Brazilian cotton production forecast to 3.96 million tons due to a slight reduction in the planting area. In November, the raw cotton export volume reached 402,000 tons, a 37% increase from October [9]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remains weak due to the narrow - range oscillation of futures prices, attractive local cotton prices, and weak downstream demand [10]. - Bangladesh: In November, cotton imports were relatively low, and garment exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The preliminary data shows that the November cotton import volume was slightly over 120,000 tons, a nearly 10% increase from the previous low level but significantly lower than the imports from July - September [10]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending December 12, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 62%, and 65.5% respectively [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices: The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to rise steadily. The one - price spot transactions were good, mainly due to purchases by individual large cotton merchants. The low - basis transactions were also good, mainly for locked - basis transactions, while high - basis transactions were sluggish [12]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: As of December 12, there were 3,109 registered warehouse receipts and 3,708 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 6,817 receipts, equivalent to 286,314 tons [12]. - Downstream situation: The pure - cotton yarn market was sluggish, with few new orders. The yarn price increase was difficult, and the transaction center of gravity declined. The cotton fabric market also had a weak trading atmosphere, with low orders and high inventory [13]. 3.3操作建议 ICE cotton is expected to maintain a narrow - range low - level oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are likely to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short - term, but the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes in the spot basis [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Industrial silicon continues to accumulate inventory, with short - term supply subject to disturbing events. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory keeps increasing. It is expected that the supply will decrease from December. The market may be boosted by sentiment, but the upside space of the futures prices prices are limited due to weak demand is limited, and it is expected to be limited, and it is recommended to maintain a short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - term short - 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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom. Currently, the valuation is not low enough and there is no clear driving force. It is recommended to operate with a light position. The price may break upward if there is a smooth production reduction in the first quarter, and new imagination space for the new year will be created when the origin starts to destock and the production in the first and second quarters is lower than expected [2]. - Soybean oil and its spreads are temporarily range - bound. They are waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the thematic resonance in the first quarter. The short - term pressure on US soybeans remains, and the driving force provided by the domestic spot market is limited at present [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: After the release of the MPOB report, the price rebounded after the negative factors were exhausted. However, the trading of the high - yield margin was not fully digested, and the high inventory suppressed the rebound height. The palm oil 01 contract fell 0.65% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The sales progress of US soybeans was slow. Without weather speculation in South America, the upward driving force was limited. It mainly followed the oil and fat sector in a range - bound manner without upward momentum. The soybean oil 01 contract fell 1.06% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - High production and low demand pushed Malaysia's December palm oil inventory to 2.8 million tons, approaching the 2018 high. The rebound after the report was weak, and the market was reluctant to bet on the production inflection point. More monthly production data are needed to verify the reasons for the high - yield. If the production in December decreases to around 1.7 million tons, the bottom of palm oil can be short - term confirmed [2]. - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia and the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra have declined, and the refining profit has rebounded rapidly. Indonesia still has room for marginal price cuts, and Malaysia's production will be the key factor for price support. The September data released by GAPKI is of little trading value due to possible distortion, but the export data from October to November indicates that the average monthly production in these two months is at least 4.8 million tons, and the year - end inventory can be maintained above 3 million tons, with a potential increase of about 1 million tons in 2026 [2]. - In the consumer areas, India's CPO import profit is still good, which stimulates India's purchasing, showing certain marginal demand. However, China's import profit inversion has widened, and the pressure release at the origin is very slow. Overall, palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom, and it will mainly operate in a range without breakthrough momentum under fundamental trading [2]. Soybean oil - The inventory of US soybeans is slightly loose under the condition of good yield per unit. The new - crop CBOT soybean price needs a further reduction in yield per unit or China's unexpected over - purchase to rise. The uneven rainfall in central and western Brazil since October may limit the high - yield potential in some areas, but it is not enough to weaken the production prospect of the new season in South America. Argentina also has no speculative factors for the time being. The short - term pressure on US soybeans remains, and China's purchasing rhythm and South American weather will determine the degree of correction [4]. - In the domestic market, there is almost no gap in soybean arrivals until January, but the estimated arrivals from February to March are lower than the same period last year. The export demand enables domestic soybean oil to maintain the monthly destocking process until March or April next year, but the driving force provided by the domestic spot market is also very limited at present. Soybean oil and its spreads are temporarily range - bound, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the thematic resonance in the first quarter [4]. 3.3盘面基本行情数据 (Basic Market Data of Futures) - **Price and Volume Data**: The palm oil main - continuous contract opened at 8,780 yuan/ton, closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 1.99%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract opened at 8,282 yuan/ton, closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract opened at 9,625 yuan/ton, closed at 9,347 yuan/ton, down 3.10%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Spread Data**: The rapeseed - soybean 01 spread was 1,368 yuan/ton, up 1.18%; the soybean - palm 01 spread was - 368 yuan/ton, up 26.98%; the spreads of 1 - 5 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all increased to different extents [6]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 498 to 950; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 3,195 to 25,964; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 316 to 3,476 [6]. 3.4油脂基本面核心数据 (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - **Palm Oil Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production reduction in the fourth quarter is slow, and the inventory at the end of the year is still high. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a neutral and slightly loose level. The export of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 10 was 390,400 tons, a 15% decrease compared with the same period last month. The POGO spread rebounded [8][12]. - **Demand - related Data**: India's palm oil import profit has improved rapidly, and the CNF spread between soybean oil and palm oil in India has strengthened. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil and four major oils and fats in 2025 have decreased by 400,000 tons and 600,000 tons respectively [13][14]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of palm oil (South China) for the 01 contract is - 30, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) has increased [13].

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：供需预期持续走弱，估值再度下挫 ➢ 钢厂开工延续季节性下滑，同时随着焦炭开启二轮降价，焦煤的现货成交情况也相对偏弱。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 临近年底，国内产地供应考虑到全年指标的用尽未能实现显著增量恢复；但外蒙依然维持较高通车辆，同环比均有所增加。 ◆ 2、需求： ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 海外降息如之前预期顺利兑现；国内召开中央经济工作会议，需求端相关政策较为密集，多空影响较为交织。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 大口径的煤炭供需预期持续转弱，除了钢铁链需求的季节性走弱外，动力煤近期港口库存矛盾也愈发尖锐，煤焦估值再度大幅 坍塌，但考虑到当前煤焦相对抢跑预期的偏低估值，以及能源需求方面迎来的北方降温的提振，继续追空所面临的风险也逐渐 增大，建议短期以震荡反复对待。 煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月14日 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold prices have slightly increased this week, but the intensity of the increase is limited, with a higher probability of range - bound fluctuations. The 10 - year TIPS has risen to 1.93%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate has fallen to 4.19%. The recent price correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned [4][5]. - Silver prices have fluctuated significantly this week. Although there was a small accumulation of futures inventory, the accumulation was limited, and the TD deferred fee remained in the state of short - paying - long. The overseas Lease rate rebounded moderately. The risk of short - squeeze in silver at home and abroad in December is limited, but there is a greater risk of price increase from January to March 2026. After the price recently reached $65, it may enter a shock adjustment stage [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Price and Spread** - This week, London gold rose 2.45%, and London silver rose 11.02%. The gold - silver ratio fell from 72.2 last week to 66.6. The gold - silver price ranges are 950 - 990 yuan/gram for gold and 13,700 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 30.515 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 27.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to - 0.165 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 1.03 dollars/ounce [11][17]. - Domestically, the gold futures - spot spread was - 5.86 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 29 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.28 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 7 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [23][26][30][33]. - **Inventory** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.66 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.7%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 115.42 tons to 137,581 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3%. Domestic gold futures inventory remained unchanged, and silver futures inventory increased by 132 tons to 802 tons [42][44][48]. - **Positions** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while the non - commercial net - long position of silver decreased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 2.82 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 0.2 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 177 tons [50][53][57]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned this week, and the 10YTIPS has continued to decline [66]. - Information on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70][73][78][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is characterized by an increase in recycled lead production and cautious demand, with prices expected to remain volatile. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,900 - 17,400 yuan/ton. The total lead inventory in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period [3][4]. - On the supply side, primary lead production is increasing as smelters resume from maintenance, and the spot import processing fee for 60% grade lead concentrate remains low. Recycled lead production is also expected to rise due to high profits and the resumption of production by some enterprises after routine maintenance [4]. - On the consumption side, large lead - acid battery enterprises are increasing production to meet year - end targets, but the market sentiment has become cautious due to the anti - dumping tax on Chinese automotive starting lead - acid batteries by an overseas cooperation committee. The domestic lead inventory in five regions has decreased on a weekly basis, and the current absolute inventory level is at a historically low level for the same period [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to operate within the range as lead prices are expected to remain volatile, and new long - position entrants should be cautious and pay attention to the profit changes of recycled lead. For the spread strategy, as domestic lead inventory continues to decline, attention can be paid to the term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the night - session closing price was 17,035 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.53%. The LME lead 3 - month contract was at 1,983.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.27%. The LME lead spread, bonded area lead premium, and Shanghai 1 lead spot spread remained relatively stable. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead increased from - 50 to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 29,694 lots, a decrease of 14,814 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 33,768 lots, a decrease of 11,176 lots. The trading volume of the LME S - lead 3 contract was 6,134 lots, a decrease of 512 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 616 to 16,694 lots, the SHFE total lead inventory decreased by 2,508 to 32,227 lots, and the social inventory decreased by 3,100 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 8,800 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 2.44% to 46.52% [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, consumption, and production of lead concentrate have shown certain trends over the years. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates, as well as the import and domestic treatment charges (TC), have also changed. The lead concentrate operating rate has fluctuated [30][31]. - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: Primary lead production is increasing as smelters resume from maintenance. Recycled lead production is expected to rise due to high profits and the resumption of production by some enterprises after routine maintenance. The production and operating rates of primary lead, recycled lead, and their combined production have shown different trends over time [4][34][35]. - **Waste Batteries and Recycled Lead**: The raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of recycled lead have all changed over time. The net import of refined lead, import and export volume of lead ingots, and import profit and loss have also shown corresponding trends [39][40][43]. 3.3 Lead Demand - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, the finished product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries have all changed over time [47]. - **End - Use Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, as well as the monthly production volume of automobiles and motorcycles, have shown different trends over the years [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at high levels. The shortage of scrap aluminum supply persists, providing some support for prices, but the weakening demand limits further price increases. In the short term, prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation range [6]. - From the micro - fundamental perspective, as of December 14, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.07 million tons to 13.12 million tons compared to the previous week, with high - level visible inventory. The automotive market demand is under pressure, with the retail volume of the national passenger car market from December 1 - 7 showing a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 8% [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The trading volume, open interest, and capital precipitation data are presented graphically, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - The calculation of the inter - period spread cost of casting aluminum alloy involves various fees such as transaction fees, storage fees, and capital costs. For the AD2601 - AD2602 spread on December 12, 2025, the fixed cost is 8.82 yuan/ton, and the floating cost is 90.89 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 100 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot - futures arbitrage cost calculation of casting aluminum alloy takes into account factors such as spot price, storage fees, capital costs, and trading fees. Based on the current situation, the spot price is 21,200 yuan/ton, and the calculated warehouse receipt cost is 22,140.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with relatively fast year - on - year growth [16][20]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has widened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum is flat, while the monthly start - up rate has declined. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy has its own distribution characteristics by region. Currently, the ADC12 cost is mainly composed of scrap aluminum and is estimated to be in a loss state [30][40][47]. - The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy is currently closed [52][57]. - For recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are provided, along with their respective proportion distribution by region [60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales push stage, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption market [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices had a significant correction on Friday night due to the increased sensitivity of high - level prices to negative factors. The short - term domestic spot driving logic weakened, but long - term supply shortages and consumption recovery expectations still supported copper prices. It was recommended to buy on dips, and attention could be paid to internal and external reverse arbitrage opportunities [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volatility: The volatility of LME, SHFE, and INE copper expanded, while that of COMEX copper decreased. The LME copper price volatility was around 13%, and the SHFE copper volatility was about 15% [10]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper flattened, and the spot premium of LME copper declined. The 12 - 01 spread of SHFE copper was - 60 yuan/ton on December 12, and the LME 0 - 3 premium was 20.69 dollars/ton on the same day [16][18]. - Position: The position of LME copper increased, while those of COMEX and SHFE decreased. The position of SHFE copper decreased by 6,748 lots to 646,900 lots [19]. - Capital and Industrial Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises increased, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial decreased [25]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium weakened, and the Yangshan Port copper premium rebounded. The domestic copper spot changed from a premium of 170 yuan/ton on December 5 to a discount of 20 yuan/ton on December 12 [29][31]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory increased, with a significant increase in COMEX inventory. The global total inventory increased from 788,800 tons on December 4 to 803,400 tons on December 11 [32][35]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper fluctuated, and that of SHFE copper was at a neutral level in the same period of history [36]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrate increased year - on - year, and the processing fee remained weak. In October 2025, the import volume of copper concentrates was 2.4515 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.94% [39]. - Recycled Copper: The import volume of recycled copper increased year - on - year, and the domestic production increased significantly. In October, the import of recycled copper was 196,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.35% [42]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper increased month - on - month, and the processing fee rebounded. In October, the import of blister copper was 55,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% [51]. - Refined Copper: The production of refined copper increased year - on - year, the import decreased, and the loss of copper spot import expanded. In November, the production of refined copper was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75% [54]. 3.3 Demand End - Operating Rate: In November, the operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded month - on - month. The operating rates of copper tubes and copper strips and foils rebounded but were at a low level in the same period of history [57]. - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods was at a low level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes rebounded. As of December 12, the processing fee of copper rods for the power industry in East China was 385 yuan/ton [63]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a relatively low - neutral level in the same period of history [64]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods rebounded, and that of wire and cable decreased slightly. In November, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a high level in the same period of history [67]. 3.4 Consumption End - Consumption: The apparent consumption was good, and power grid investment was still an important support. From January to October, the cumulative consumption was 13.2983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.36% [72]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: In October, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.1326 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 27.92%, and the new - energy vehicle production was 1.772 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.12% [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows neutral to strong strength, with prices fluctuating at a high level both domestically and internationally [2]. - Domestic zinc inventories continue to decline, and galvanizing开工率 has rebounded [3][4]. - The domestic zinc supply is expected to decrease due to large losses in imported zinc concentrates and the shutdown of northern mines at the end of the year. The consumption side is in the off - season, and downstream demand is seasonally weak [6]. - Abnormal premium structures have appeared in London this year, indicating a shortage of overseas spot supplies. Although the export window has opened and domestic supplies have flowed overseas, the LME inventory accumulation is slow, and the risk of overseas inventory structure still exists. There is an expectation of zinc element surplus next year, but in the short term, prices may have upward elasticity [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,605 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 23,305 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,139 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.31% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 9,447 tons to 51,282 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 11,339 tons to 80,577 tons. The social inventory decreased by 12,100 tons to 128,200 tons. The LME zinc inventory increased by 6,550 tons to 61,925 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 300 tons to 3,300 tons [7]. - **Processing Fees and Profits**: The imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased from 58 dollars/ton to 51 dollars/ton, and the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased from 2,050 yuan/ton to 1,850 yuan/ton. The imported zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 239 yuan/ton to - 5,003 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 176 yuan/ton to - 1,442 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2. Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore enterprises' profits have rebounded and are at a medium - to - high level in history, while smelting profits have declined and are at a historical low. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **开工率**: Zinc concentrate开工率 has rebounded and is at a medium level in the same period in history. Refined zinc开工率 has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing开工率 has rebounded, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide开工率 have declined and are at a medium - to - low level in history [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have weakened. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the premium in Singapore remaining stable and the LME CASH - 3M declining from a high level [18][19]. - **Spreads**: The C - structure of SHFE zinc has flattened [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventories have shown a slight decline this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has remained flat. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total LME inventories. The ratio of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded - area inventory has remained flat this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has decreased slightly [27][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level in the same period in history [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, imported ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has declined and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level in the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [46][47]. - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import volume is not clearly stated, and the export situation shows that although the export window has opened, the volume of goods delivered to warehouses is relatively limited [48]. 3.5. Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [52]. - **Downstream**: The monthly开工率 of downstream industries has rebounded slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows a structural increase [55][71]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity are provided, and the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries is also shown, but specific analysis conclusions are not clearly stated [73][74][76].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 ◆ 本周锡价向上突破，上破33万区间，周度涨幅超过4%。 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-08 10-20 10-31 11-11 11-22 12-06 12-20 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-08 10-20 10-31 11-11 11-22 12-06 12-20 ...