2025 年 12 月 12 日 集运指数（欧线）：短期情绪偏乐观，中期震荡市 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 41 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2512 | 1,653.1 | -0.37% | 241 | 3,031 | -138 | 0.08 | 0.10 | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,689.0 | 2.04% | 18,659 | 31,623 | 241 | 0.59 | 1.14 | | | EC2604 | 1,092.7 | 0.87% | 2,137 | 19,277 | 58 | 0.11 | 0. ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日 【趋势强度】 趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 生猪：降温提涨不及预期，仓单增量 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11430 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11900 | | 50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12210 | | -200 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also mentions the trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon, with industrial silicon at 0 (neutral) and polysilicon at 1 (偏强) [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Category 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,285 yuan/ton with a trading volume of 203,929 lots, while PS2605 (polysilicon) closed at 55,765 yuan/ton with a trading volume of 197,180 lots [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium against different grades and polysilicon's spot premium against N - type re -投料 are presented, showing various price differences over different time intervals [1]. - **Price**: Prices of industrial silicon (e.g., Xinjiang 99 silicon at 8750 yuan/ton), polysilicon (N - type re -投料 at 52300 yuan/ton), and related products like silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits for different grades in Xinjiang and Yunnan are negative, while polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory is 56.1 million tons, enterprise inventory is 18.7 million tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory is 29.3 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, and chemicals for polysilicon production are given [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Central Economic Work Conference from December 10 - 11 determined next year's economic work priorities, including reform, market construction, and financial system improvement [2][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon has a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), and polysilicon has a trend intensity of 1 (偏强) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Palm oil production reduction is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [1] - The driving force for US soybeans is insufficient, and soybean oil will mainly fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil's day - session closed at 8,656 yuan/ton with a 1.33% increase, and night - session at 8,546 yuan/ton with a - 1.27% decrease; soybean oil's day - session closed at 8,268 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and night - session at 8,000 yuan/ton with a - 3.24% decrease; rapeseed oil's day - session closed at 9,599 yuan/ton with a 1.65% increase, and night - session at 9,390 yuan/ton with a - 2.18% decrease. Malaysian palm oil's day - session closed at 4,064 ringgit/ton with a 0.07% increase, and night - session at 4,040 ringgit/ton with a - 0.57% decrease. CBOT soybean oil closed at 51.32 cents/pound with a - 0.56% decrease [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 220,676 lots to 180,995 lots, and open interest decreased by 21,841 lots to 143,530 lots; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 28,218 lots to 101,511 lots, and open interest decreased by 10,246 lots to 203,342 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 43,222 lots to 203,904 lots, and open interest decreased by 14,228 lots to 75,900 lots [1] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,610 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,170 yuan/ton with a 300 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,030 dollars/ton with a 5 - dollar decrease [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 24 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 342 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 571 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 664 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 915 yuan/ton); soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 606 yuan/ton (previous two - day: - 528 yuan/ton); palm oil 1 - 5 spread was 14 yuan/ton (unchanged); soybean oil 1 - 5 spread was 232 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 222 yuan/ton); rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 293 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 290 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SPPOMA: From December 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.24% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month, and production increased by 6.87% month - on - month [2] - CIMB Securities: Malaysia's December palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3.0% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, exports to increase moderately by 2.0% month - on - month, and production to decrease by 11% month - on - month to 1.72 million tons [3][4] - USDA: Private exporters reported selling 264,000 tons of soybeans to China and 226,000 tons to unknown destinations for delivery in 2025/2026 [4] - CONAB: Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach 177.1236 million tons, a 3.3% increase year - on - year (5.6431 million tons increase); the sowing area is expected to reach 48.9356 million hectares, a 3.4% increase year - on - year (1.5895 million hectares increase) [4] - IBGE: Brazil's 2025 soybean planting area is expected to be 47.691363 million hectares, unchanged from last month's estimate and a 3.6% increase from last year; the production is estimated to be 165.957783 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate and a 14.5% increase from last year. Brazil's 2026 agricultural production is estimated to be 218.017021 million tons, a 0.8% increase from 2025. Brazil's 2026 soybean production is estimated to be 167.554994 million tons, a 1.0% increase from 2025 [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being most bearish and 2 being most bullish [6]

2025 年 12 月 12 日 沥青：原油弱势反复，BU 低位运行 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 吨 山东 江苏 广东 辽宁 BU厂库仓单 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,960 | 0.68% | 2,904 | -1.89% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,973 | 0.51% | 2,920 | -1.78% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2602 | 手 | 256,002 | 114,769 | 208,301 | 2,329 | | | BU2603 | 手 | 71,413 | 35,287 | 93,858 | 2,305 | | | | ...

Report Title - LPG: Suppressed by Warehouse Receipts, Sharp Decline [1] - Propylene: Spot Prices Stable, Main Contracts Decline Following Costs [2] Report Date - December 12, 2025 [1] Fundamental Data Futures Prices - PG2601: Yesterday's closing price was 4,220, with a daily decline of 0.52%; night - session closing price was 4,108, with a decline of 2.65% [2] - PG2602: Yesterday's closing price was 4,143, with a daily decline of 0.29%; night - session closing price was 4,040, with a decline of 2.49% [2] - PL2601: Yesterday's closing price was 5,950, with a daily decline of 0.15%; night - session closing price was 5,966, with an increase of 0.27% [2] - PL2602: Yesterday's closing price was 5,785, with a daily increase of 0.28%; night - session closing price was 5,741, with a decline of 0.76% [2] - PL2603: Yesterday's closing price was 5,749, with a daily increase of 0.19%; night - session closing price was 5,702, with a decline of 0.82% [2] Position and Trading Volume - PG2601: Yesterday's trading volume was 57,027, a decrease of 42,633 from the previous day; yesterday's open interest was 40,904, a decrease of 4,284 from the previous day [2] - PG2602: Yesterday's trading volume was 32,586, a decrease of 8,814 from the previous day; yesterday's open interest was 72,929, an increase of 2,165 from the previous day [2] - PL2601: Yesterday's trading volume was 9,718, an increase of 9,207 from the previous day; yesterday's open interest was 2,467, a decrease of 520 from the previous day [2] - PL2602: Yesterday's trading volume was 8,311, a decrease of 24,584 from the previous day; yesterday's open interest was 8,476, an increase of 452 from the previous day [2] - PL2603: Yesterday's trading volume was 22,659, a decrease of 38,071 from the previous day; yesterday's open interest was 17,774, an increase of 212 from the previous day [2] Spreads - Guangzhou domestic gas to PG01 contract spread: Yesterday's spread was 250, compared to 258 the previous day [2] - Guangzhou imported gas to PG01 contract spread: Yesterday's spread was 310, compared to 318 the previous day [2] - Shandong propylene to PL01 contract spread: Yesterday's spread was 140, compared to 131 the previous day [2] - East China propylene to PL01 contract spread: Yesterday's spread was 25, compared to 16 the previous day [2] - South China propylene to PL01 contract spread: Yesterday's spread was -25, compared to -34 the previous day [2] Key Industrial Chain Data - PDH operating rate: This week it was 72.9%, compared to 70.2% last week [2] - MTBE operating rate: This week it was 69.8%, compared to 70.0% last week [2] - Alkylation operating rate: This week it was 37.5%, compared to 37.9% last week [2] Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity: 0; Propylene trend intensity: -1. The range of trend intensity values is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. -2 indicates the most bearish, and 2 indicates the most bullish [6] Market News - On December 11, 2025, the January CP paper cargo price for propane was 525 US dollars per ton, an increase of 9 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 517 US dollars per ton, an increase of 8 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day. The February CP paper cargo price for propane was 511 US dollars per ton, an increase of 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [7] - There are multiple domestic PDH plant maintenance plans and domestic liquefied gas plant maintenance plans detailed in the report [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The Central Economic Work Conference further clarified the direction and tasks of next year's economic work. There are new refinements in some areas compared to the Political Bureau meeting, including releasing many signals in traditional growth - stabilizing areas, emphasizing work related to prices, and focusing on "quality and efficiency improvement" and "cross - cycle" structural adjustment. Next year's economy is expected to continue to stabilize, with the repair of short - boards such as prices and more prominent economic development quality and efficiency [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference continued to emphasize科技创新 and had new refinements in traditional growth - stabilizing areas, such as clearly mentioning "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", "maintaining sufficient liquidity", and focusing on real estate with the focus on "controlling increments, reducing inventories, and optimizing supplies". It is expected that the deficit rate will remain and the total deficit scale will continue to expand moderately next year. These measures are conducive to improving the growth expectation [8]. - In terms of prices, the policy shows an attitude of attention. It is expected that the certainty of price repair next year will further increase [8]. - Next year's policy will focus on "quality and efficiency improvement" and "cross - cycle" structural adjustment in addition to stabilizing growth [8]. Commodity Analysis Precious Metals - **Silver**: The price reached a new high, with London silver accelerating to $64.3 per ounce. The current spot contradiction is difficult to solve, with low domestic inventory and a slight increase in overseas lease rate. There is a risk of a squeeze in both Shanghai and London. The market is expected to continue to be strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure level around $65 [10]. - **Gold**: The price showed an upward trend, with factors such as expected interest rate cuts and macro - economic policies influencing it [21]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rose due to the decline of the US dollar. China's copper imports increased in November, and Chile's copper exports also increased year - on - year. The trend intensity is strong [25][27]. - **Zinc**: The price is short - term strong with internal and external market resonance. Although the most severe stage of overseas supply shortage has passed, the risk of low inventory still exists. There is an expectation of zinc element surplus next year, but the short - term price has upward elasticity [11]. - **Lead**: The domestic inventory increased, and the price was under pressure [31]. - **Tin**: There was a new supply disturbance. The price showed a certain fluctuation [34]. - **Aluminum**: The price center moved up. The supply - demand surplus of alumina remained unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [37]. - **Nickel**: The structural surplus situation has changed, but the game contradiction remains unchanged. Stainless steel's supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is enhanced [46]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: The price dropped significantly at night due to factors such as the decline of crude oil, weakening demand, and warehouse receipt pressure. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term [13]. - **PX**: The demand is seasonally weakening, but the supply is still tight, showing a high - level shock market. The overall supply - demand is tight, and there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future [86]. - **PTA**: The price is in a high - level shock situation, supported by the cost of PX. The 05 contract can hold a long - PX and short - PTA strategy [87]. - **MEG**: The trend is weak. Attention should be paid to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 [88]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [183]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from US soybeans is insufficient, and the price fluctuates mainly [183]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rose, and the domestic soybean meal showed a strong - side shock [189]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The price showed a certain fluctuation [193]. - **Sugar**: The price is in a range - bound shock [196]. - **Cotton**: The price is in a strong - side shock, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [200]. - **Eggs**: The price is in an adjustment shock [206]. - **Hogs**: The price increase due to cooling was less than expected, and the warehouse receipt increased. The trend is weak [208]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The price showed a certain stability [212]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [57]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand data is weak, and the price is in a low - level shock [60][61]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The spot price is short - term firm, and the price is in a wide - range shock [65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a wide - range shock [70]. - **Log**: The price is in a low - level shock [74]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The short - term sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is a shock market [156]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: There is medium - term pressure, and a long - TA and short - PF/PR strategy can be held [170]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [173]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is in a short - term shock [178].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Report Issuer: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: There is a transformation in structural surplus, but the game contradictions remain unchanged [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand continue to operate weakly, and the cost - support logic is strengthened [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With continuous inventory reduction and uncertain resumption of production of large factories, it will fluctuate at a high level [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in Xinjiang [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,870 yuan, down 1,220 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 12,500 yuan, down 55 yuan. The import profit of nickel plate was - 973 yuan, up 425 yuan from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [4][5] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 96,980 yuan, up 2,900 yuan from the previous day. The spot - 2601 was - 3,480 yuan, up - 2,100 yuan from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 93,559 yuan/ton, up 932 yuan/ton from the previous working day. This week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,998 tons, an increase of 59 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 111,469 tons, a decrease of 2,133 tons from last week [10] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2601 closing price was 8,285 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from the previous day; the PS2605 closing price was 55,765 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous day. The industrial silicon - social inventory was 56.1 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to a week ago [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Central Economic Work Conference determined the key tasks for next year's economic work, including promoting reform, building a unified national market, and deepening the reform of state - owned enterprises [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, and others, offering trading strategies and trend predictions based on market fundamentals and news [2][12][15]. - It also covers industry news and market dynamics, such as supply and demand changes, inventory levels, and price movements, to help investors make informed decisions [7][16][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Demand is seasonally weakening, but supply remains tight, with a high - level consolidation trend. It is recommended to hold long PX and short BZ positions. The overall supply - demand is tight, and it may be strong before the holiday. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the PX01 contract [2][12]. - **PTA**: High - level consolidation, with cost support. Hold long PX and short PTA positions in the 05 contract and conduct a 5 - 9 positive spread operation. Be wary of the negative feedback in the industrial chain caused by early terminal holidays [2][13]. - **MEG**: The trend is weak. Pay attention to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to range between 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern will be under pressure in the next 2 - 3 months [2][14]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: Consolidating. The domestic production area's stop - cutting sentiment has been digested, while overseas production areas are entering the peak season. The supply increase expectation suppresses the spot market, and the price shows a trend of first falling and then rising [15][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Ranging. The short - term is expected to oscillate within the fundamental valuation range, with high supply pressure suppressing the price and some marginal improvements providing support [18][20][21]. Asphalt - The crude oil is weakly fluctuating, and asphalt is trading at a low level. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt refineries has decreased, and the social inventory has remained stable. The overall trend is neutral [22][29][32]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Unilateral decline, and the basis has weakened again. The raw material end is oscillating, the downstream demand is weakening, and the supply - demand pressure may increase in the medium term [35][36]. - **PP**: Under upstream selling pressure, the price difference between powder and granular materials is inverted. The cost support is limited, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak trend. Focus on the marginal changes of PDH devices [38][39]. Other Commodities - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand is weak. The cost has some support, but the rebound is difficult without production cuts [41][43]. - **Pulp**: Wide - range consolidation. The futures market is weak, and the spot market shows differentiation. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to port inventory changes and futures market capital trends [46][49]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The float glass price is mostly stable with minor fluctuations, the demand is weak, and the supply pressure is expected to ease [51][52]. - **Methanol**: Under pressure. The port inventory has decreased significantly in the short term, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in December. The high - supply pressure in the 01 contract is the main contradiction [55][58]. - **Urea**: Ranging. The enterprise inventory has decreased, the demand has improved, and the price is supported. The upper pressure level is around 1700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [60][62][64]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation. The pure benzene market is in a weak reality and strong expectation situation, and the styrene supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to focus on EB profit expansion and PX - BZ [65][66]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The enterprise operation is stable, the output is high, the downstream demand is tepid, and the price is stable [69][70]. - **LPG**: Suppressed by warehouse receipts, the price has dropped significantly. The 1 - month CP paper price has increased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [73][74][79]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is stable, and the main contract follows the cost down. The PDH start - up rate has increased, and the market is under pressure [74]. - **PVC**: The trend remains weak. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The supply may decrease in the maintenance season next year [82]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Both are weak. The night - session of low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [84]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The short - term sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is an oscillating market. The 2602 contract may see a price increase in January, but the high price is difficult to sustain. The 2604 contract is suitable for short - selling on rallies [86][98]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Both face medium - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long TA and short PF/PR positions. The staple fiber futures have risen and then fallen, and the bottle chip factory price is mostly stable [100][101]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The spot price is stable, the demand is weak, and the cost - profit situation is not good [103]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation. The port inventory has increased, the downstream demand is weak in December and may improve in January, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton [108][109].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [2]. - Soybean oil: There is insufficient drive from US soybeans, and soybean oil will mainly fluctuate [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate strongly [2]. - Soybean: It will adjust and fluctuate [2]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2]. - Sugar: It will fluctuate within a range [2]. - Cotton: It will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [2]. - Eggs: It will fluctuate and adjust [2]. - Live pigs: The price increase due to cooling is less than expected, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,656 yuan/ton with a 1.33% increase, and (night session) was 8,546 yuan/ton with a -1.27% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,268 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and (night session) was 8,000 yuan/ton with a -3.24% decrease [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From December 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.24% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month, and the production increased by 6.87% month - on - month. Malaysia's December palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3.0% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, and exports are expected to increase by 2.0% month - on - month [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 0; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2605's closing price (day session) was 2,750 yuan/ton, and (night session) was 2,770 yuan/ton with a +0.58% increase; DCE soybean 2601's closing price (day session) was 4,173 yuan/ton, and (night session) was 4,148 yuan/ton with a -0.46% decrease [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 11, CBOT soybeans rose due to sales to China and active technical buying. As of November 13, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 695,598 tons [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1; soybean trend intensity is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2601's closing price (day session) was 2,243 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and (night session) was 2,239 yuan/ton with a -0.18% decrease; C2603's closing price (day session) was 2,236 yuan/ton with a 0.49% increase, and (night session) was 2,229 yuan/ton with a -0.31% decrease [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically flat, Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and container price increased slightly [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.91 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,420 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,245 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of November, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 49.8% year - on - year, and in Brazil in the second half of November, it increased by 9% year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's closing price (day session) was 13,860 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and (night session) was 13,825 yuan/ton with a -0.25% decrease; CY2603's closing price (day session) was 20,005 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, and (night session) was 19,985 yuan/ton with a -0.10% decrease [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading slightly recovered, cotton yarn prices were stable, and downstream orders were mainly short and small. ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate at a low level [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2601's closing price was 3,144 yuan/500 kg with a -0.03% decrease, and Egg 2602's closing price was 2,968 yuan/500 kg with a -0.44% decrease [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,430 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,210 yuan/ton. The futures prices of live pigs 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 11,440 yuan/ton, 11,220 yuan/ton, and 11,820 yuan/ton respectively [30]. - **Market Information**: Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, Dekang, and Yangxiang registered warehouse receipts from December 4 - 11 [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is -1 [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,082 yuan/ton with a -0.17% decrease, and the closing price of PK603 was 8,050 yuan/ton with a -0.45% decrease [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang and Kaifeng's peanut prices were stable with low supply and demand. In Jilin and Liaoning, 308 peanut prices were stable with low supply. In Shandong, prices were stable with quality - based transactions [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36].