2025年12月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：表需数据偏弱，低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：表需数据偏弱，低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：现货价格短期坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：现货价格短期坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | MY V | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 780. 0 | -7.5 | -0. 95% | | | 12601 | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive trading day on December 11, 2025, mainly due to active technical buying, U.S. soybean sales to China, and price support from neighboring corn and wheat futures [1][3]. - As of the week ending November 13, 2025, the net sales volume of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year was 695,598 tons, close to the lower limit of market expectations. Traders continued to focus on China's purchasing situation [3]. - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, indicating a relatively strong trend, while the trend strength of soybean No. 1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton during the day session and 2770 yuan/ton during the night session, with a daily increase of 0 (+0.00%) and a night - session increase of 16 (+0.58%); DCE soybean No. 1 2601 closed at 4173 yuan/ton during the day session and 4148 yuan/ton during the night session, with a decrease of 19 (-0.46%). CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1093.75 cents per bushel, up 1.75 (+0.16%); CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at 302.2 dollars per short ton, up 1.3 (+0.43%) [1]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of soybean meal in different regions varied. For example, in Shandong, the basis for 12 - January was M2601 + 30/+60, up 20 to 50 compared to the previous day; in Zhangjiagang Dafu, the price was 3040 - 3090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 12.85 million tons per day, compared with 14.67 million tons per day in the previous trading day. The inventory was 104.55 million tons per week, compared with 107.34 million tons per week in the previous week [1]. [Macroeconomic and Industry News] - According to Beijing Derunlin on December 12, 2025, CBOT soybean futures rose on December 11 due to active technical buying, U.S. soybean sales to China, and price support from neighboring corn and wheat futures [1][3]. - As of the week ending November 13, 2025, the net sales volume of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year was 695,598 tons, compared with 510,554 tons in the previous week. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed that private exporters reported sales of 26.4 million tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 22.6 million tons to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year [3]. [Trend Strength] - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and the trend strength of soybean No. 1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the reporting day [3].

| | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21970 | રૂટ | -90 | ર૦ર | 1435 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22175 | ー | ー | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2895 | 33 | 8 | 30 | 318 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 189881 | 30018 | | -21799 | 61713 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 294576 | 108770 | -56485 50119 | 38415 | 66548 | | | 电解铝 | | | | | | | | | | LME铝3M成交量 | 20441 | 4531 | -4657 | -3440 | ર્ 185 | | | | LME注销仓单占比 | 6. 43% | -0. 37% | -2. 14% | -1. 83% | 3.50% | | | | LME 铝cash-3M ...

2025年12月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：如期降息 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：再创新高，突破60 | 3 | | 铜：美元回落，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 铅：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：重心上移 | 12 | | 氧化铝：供需过剩未改 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：开始补涨，关注前高能否突破 | 14 | | 钯：震荡上行 | 14 | | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 16 | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：去库持续叠加大厂复产未定，高位震荡 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注新疆地区天气情况 | 20 | | 多晶硅：盘面高位震荡格局 | 20 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：表需数据偏弱，低位震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：表需数据偏弱，低位震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：现货价格短期坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：现货价格短期坚挺，宽幅震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold experienced an expected interest rate cut, and silver reached a new high, breaking through 60. Copper prices rose as the U.S. dollar declined, and zinc showed a volatile upward trend. Lead prices were under pressure due to increased domestic inventories, and tin supply was disrupted again. Aluminum's center of gravity shifted upward, while the alumina market remained in oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum started to catch up in price, and attention was paid to whether it could break through the previous high. Palladium showed a volatile upward trend. Nickel's structural surplus situation changed, but the contradiction in the game remained unchanged. Stainless steel's supply and demand continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic strengthened [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 957.90, with a daily increase of 0.16%, and the night - session closing price was 969.80, with a night - session increase of 1.24%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 242,710, an increase of 20,101 compared to the previous day, and the position was 192,178, a decrease of 481 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 91,302 kilograms, an increase of 3 kilograms [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold was 1 [6]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 14,488, with a daily increase of 0.85%, and the night - session closing price was 15,008.00, with a night - session increase of 4.56%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 1,633,505, a decrease of 181,337 compared to the previous day, and the position was 423,172, a decrease of 27,385 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 780,600 kilograms, an increase of 38,755 kilograms [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silver was 1 [6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 92,210, with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the night - session closing price was 94,080, with a night - session increase of 2.03%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 341,163, a decrease of 3,257 compared to the previous day, and the position was 631,193, a decrease of 2,622 [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 31,461 tons, an increase of 2,530 tons [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper was 2 [10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,995, with a decrease of 0.35%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 93,062, a decrease of 25,138 compared to the previous day, and the position was 88,499, a decrease of 4,680 [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc futures was 52,802 tons, a decrease of 1,968 tons [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc was 1 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17,155, with an increase of 0.23%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 34,885, a decrease of 1,564 compared to the previous day, and the position was 35,754, a decrease of 3,561 [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead futures was 17,711 tons, an increase of 2,282 tons [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead was 0 [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 320,600, with a decrease of 0.63%, and the night - session closing price was 331,910, with a night - session increase of 4.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 226,914, an increase of 15,806 compared to the previous day, and the position was 42,785, a decrease of 4,714 [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 7,024 tons, a decrease of 127 tons [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin was 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,970, and the night - session closing price was 22,175. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 189,881, and the position was 294,576 [20]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,469, and the night - session closing price was 2,441. The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 242,299, and the position was 257,111 [20]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,965, and the night - session closing price was 21,130. The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 3,506, and the position was 17,569 [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum was 1, that of alumina was - 1, and that of aluminum alloy was 1 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 442.40, with a decrease of 0.46%. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 7,771, a decrease of 2,916 compared to the previous day, and the position was 12,351, an increase of 190 [24]. - **Palladium**: The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 385.25, with a decrease of 0.62%. The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 4,506, a decrease of 1,404 compared to the previous day, and the position was 3,629, an increase of 123 [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of platinum was 1, and that of palladium was 1 [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,870, a decrease of 1,220. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 106,815, a decrease of 13,204 compared to the previous day [29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,500, a decrease of 55. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 163,110, an increase of 314 compared to the previous day [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel was 0, and that of stainless steel was 0 [33].

硅铁：现货价格短期坚挺，宽幅震荡 锰硅：现货价格短期坚挺，宽幅震荡 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5418 | -16 | 265,759 | 264,632 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5382 | -12 | 19,136 | 69,518 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5712 | -12 | 148,570 | 290,271 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5758 | -10 | 62,361 | 166,125 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to be strong before the holiday due to tight supply - demand, but not to be chased at high prices in the short - term. Hold long PX and short BZ positions. Be cautious about the warehouse receipt pressure of PX01 contract [9]. - PTA is in a high - level volatile market with cost support. Hold long PX and short PTA positions for the 05 contract and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be wary of the negative feedback in the industrial chain caused by early terminal holidays from late December to early January [10]. - MEG is in a weak trend. Pay attention to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. There is a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On December 11, Platts evaluated Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea at 835.67 dollars/ton and 814.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 4 dollars/ton from the previous day. The FOMC cut the target interest rate by 25 basis points on December 10 [4]. - In the Platts closing assessment, the 1 - 2 month spread of PX continued to narrow. Some Asian PX term contracts have not been settled, and the volume of 2026 contracts is much lower than that of 2025 [6]. Fundamentals - PX: Domestic production start - up rate remains at 88.2% (- 0.3%). GS has a shutdown plan in December, Satorp in the Middle East restarts 700,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans for Zhejiang Petrochemical and Sheng Hong Refining [9]. - PTA: Mainland China's device changes are small this week, with a load of 73.7%. A 550,000 - ton device in Taiwan, China is shut down, and the load drops to 30% [7]. - MEG: As of December 11, the overall start - up load in mainland China is 69.93% (down 3.01% from the previous period), and the start - up load of syngas - made MEG is 72.17% (down 0.41% from the previous period) [7]. - Polyester: The start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remains stable at about 75%. The overall polyester load in mainland China is about 91.2% [7][8]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is - 1, PTA trend intensity is - 1, and MEG trend intensity is 0 [9]. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: PX, PTA, and PF closed up, while MEG and SC closed down on the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: PX, PTA, and short - fiber processing fees increased, while MEG, naphtha, and Brent crude oil prices decreased [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing weak apparent demand data and are in a low-level oscillation state [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Data**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,069 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 1.32%; HC2605 closed at 3,238 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan or 1.19%. The trading volume of RB2605 was 1,360,006 lots, with a position of 1,602,075 lots and an increase of 87,857 lots; HC2605 had a trading volume of 630,010 lots, a position of 1,148,348 lots, and an increase of 42,440 lots [2][4]. - **Spot Price**: In various regions, rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed fluctuations. For example, Shanghai's rebar price dropped from 3,280 yuan/ton to 3,270 yuan/ton; Guangzhou's hot-rolled coil price decreased from 3,300 yuan/ton to 3,260 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2605 increased from 163 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton; HC2605's basis rose from -2 yuan/ton to 32 yuan/ton. Spreads such as RB2601 - RB2605, HC2601 - HC2605, etc., also changed [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Weekly Data**: On December 11, in terms of production, rebar production decreased by 10.53 tons, hot-rolled coil by 5.6 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 22.73 tons. Total inventory: rebar decreased by 24.31 tons, hot-rolled coil by 3.26 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 33.5 tons. Apparent demand: rebar decreased by 13.89 tons, hot-rolled coil by 2.89 tons, and the total by 24.45 tons [2]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 million tons, a 2.5% decrease from the previous month. In October, national crude steel production was 72 million tons, a 12.1% year - on - year decrease; pig iron production was 65.55 million tons, a 7.9% year - on - year decrease; and steel production was 118.64 million tons, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease [2][5]. - **Import Data**: In October, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 45,000 tons or 8.2% from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative import was 5.041 million tons, a decrease of 680,000 tons or 11.9% year - on - year [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 0 [5].

资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 期指：多空因素交织，震荡格局依旧 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4552.18 | ↓0.86 | | 4324.3 | | | | | | IF2512 | 4539.6 | ↓0.77 | -12.58 | 889 | 64930 | ↓11060 | 111889 | ↓9138 | | IF2601 | 4522.8 | ↓0.78 | -29.38 | 85.2 | 6242 | ↓273 | 17149 | ↑951 | | IF2603 | 4496.6 | ↓0.84 | -55.58 | 394.9 | 29116 | ↓4131 | 109936 | ↑426 | | IF2606 ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日 碳酸锂：去库持续叠加大厂复产未定，高位震荡 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | T T-1 T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 96,980 | 2,900 | 4,720 | 2,980 | 10,440 | 24,360 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 55,198 | -2,832 | -46,780 | -161,717 | -847 ...