Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The lead market lacks driving forces, and prices are fluctuating. The trend strength of lead is neutral [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,955 yuan/ton, up 0.38%, while the LME 3M electronic lead contract closed at $2,020.5/ton, down 0.12%. The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 46,763 lots, an increase of 344 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 5,355 lots, a decrease of 734 lots [1]. - **Position and Premium**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 73,327 lots, an increase of 3,335 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 142,292 lots, an increase of 1,567 lots. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -$23.42/ton, an increase of $0.85/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 59,959 tons, unchanged, and the LME lead inventory was 266,275 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 71,425 tons, an increase of 600 tons [1]. - **Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -850.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.34 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of the Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -698.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 41.6 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of secondary lead was -481 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, then changed his statement and said an agreement might be reached. Most agreements are expected to be completed before August. The possibility of Canada reaching a new agreement before the deadline is low [2]. - In June, the preliminary value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders was -9.3%, the largest monthly decline since the pandemic, dragged down by aircraft orders [2]. - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that in May 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the research on silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy futures, released on July 28, 2025, by the Research Institute of Guotai Junan Futures [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy futures are showing a strong trend due to information disturbances related to energy consumption, carbon emissions, and industry competition [2] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - Silicon ferroalloy 2509 closed at 6166, up 412 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 566,065 and an open interest of 212,806; Silicon ferroalloy 2510 closed at 6156, up 406, with a trading volume of 63,215 and an open interest of 44,001 - Manganese ferroalloy 2509 closed at 6414, up 466, with a trading volume of 877,130 and an open interest of 387,032; Manganese ferroalloy 2510 closed at 6398, up 450, with a trading volume of 47,681 and an open interest of 24,472 [2] Spot Market - The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton; The price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree; The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 550 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The spot - futures price spread of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) was - 666 yuan/ton, down 412 yuan/ton; The spot - futures price spread of manganese ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) was - 714 yuan/ton, down 446 yuan/ton - The near - far month price spread of silicon ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 was - 120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; The near - far month price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - 2601 was - 64 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton - The cross - variety price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - silicon ferroalloy 2509 was 248 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton; The cross - variety price spread of manganese ferroalloy 2601 - silicon ferroalloy 2601 was 192 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On July 25, the price range of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton (+50); The price range of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton (+50), in Ningxia was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50), in Qinghai was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50), in Gansu was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50), and in Inner Mongolia was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (+50). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1020 - 1040 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1090 - 1110 dollars/ton - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton (+50), and the southern quotation was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton - As of July 25, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 354.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.93 million tons; at Qinzhou Port was 81.58 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 0 million tons; at Fangchenggang Port was 6.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory was 442.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.73 million tons [3] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 1, and that of manganese ferroalloy is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "High-level oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on zinc's fundamentals, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, premiums, and inventories, and also mentions relevant news and trend strength [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Zinc Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, down 0.56%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,829 dollars/ton, down 0.40% [1] - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract was 152,086 lots, an increase of 83 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,275 lots, a decrease of 2,398 lots [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of SHFE Zinc main contract was 129,228 lots, a decrease of 5,707 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 190,675 lots, an increase of 2,366 lots [1] - **Premiums**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was -20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was -1.8 dollars/ton, down 10.8 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 13,289 tons, an increase of 1,349 tons; LME zinc inventory was 115,775 tons, a decrease of 1,125 tons [1] 2. News - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified its stance on issues such as so - called "overcapacity" and industrial subsidies in China - EU economic and trade relations, emphasizing the complementary and win - win nature of China - EU economic and trade relations and the need for the EU to relax restrictions on high - tech product exports to China [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of zinc is -1, indicating a relatively bearish sentiment [2][3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 苯乙烯：胀库压力大，偏空配置 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,387 | 7,387 | 0 EB-BZ | | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2508 | 7,602 | 7,468 | 134 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,587 | 7,440 | 147 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB07-EB08 | -215 | -81 | -134 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB08-EB09 | 15 | 28 | -13 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强 ...

商 品 研 究 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM、Fastmarkets 2025 年 7 月 28 日 碳酸锂：周五夜盘商品价格下跌，关注悲观情绪的 传导 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 80,520 | 3,840 | 10,560 | 16,240 | 19,640 | 9,060 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 1,203,424 | -566,859 | -2,899 | 800,608 | 836,681 | 1,197,050 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 491,088 | 54,361 | 113,783 | 168,228 | 1 ...

2025 年 07 月 28 日 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2508 | 6512 | 6422 | 90 | PF08-09 | -8 | -10 | 2 | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6520 | 6432 | 88 | PF09-10 | -50 | -106 | 56 | | | 短纤2510 | 6570 | ୧୧38 | 32 | PF基差 | 80 | 1 ୧୫ | -88 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 271130 | 268777 | 2353 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 600 | 6. 600 | 0 | | | 短纤成交量 | 232464 | 333167 | -100703 | 短纤产销率 | 71% | ୧୨% | 2% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2508 | ୧୦3୧ | 6018 | 18 | PR08-09 | -6 | 32 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: July 28, 2025 [1] - Report title: "Pigs: Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, Structural Switch to Trend Reverse Spread" [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The current situation of the pig market is characterized by strong reality and weak expectations, with the spread structure switching to a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,385 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 14,385 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton; and the 2601 contract is 14,615 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: For the 2509 contract, the trading volume is 57,043 lots, down 22,144 lots, and the open interest is 62,296 lots, down 168 lots; for the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 23,077 lots, up 1415 lots, and the open interest is 50,062 lots, up 3688 lots; for the 2601 contract, the trading volume is 24,645 lots, down 2465 lots, and the open interest is 41,503 lots, up 1681 lots [2] - **Spreads**: The 2509 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; the 2511 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton; the 2601 basis is - 435 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 0 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton; the 11 - 1 spread is - 230 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton [2] 4.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [3] 4.3 Market Logic - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion ability is limited. Although group farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, causing the spot price to fall rapidly. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. The macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, leading to a spread structure switch to a reverse spread. Piglet purchases will enter the off - season in August, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][4] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term high - level correction and medium - term entry into a volatile pattern. In the short term, with a large amount of speculative funds leaving the market on Friday night, the commodity index dropped from a high, and methanol futures followed suit. Also, as the basis strengthens, it is expected to release the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market, bringing supply - side selling pressure. In the medium term, methanol is expected to fluctuate. The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the domestic methanol maintenance volume has increased while the July import volume is low, leading to a short - term contraction in domestic supply and unexpected inventory reduction at ports [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,519 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,500 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The trading volume was 991,786 lots, a decrease of 261,148 lots; the open interest was 663,505 lots, an increase of 31,318 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,134 tons, unchanged. The trading turnover was 2.479362 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.609219 billion yuan. The basis was - 10 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan; the spread between MA09 and MA01 was - 68 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,475 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot News - No specific information provided [3] 3.3 Futures Research - **Inventory Situation**: This week, the methanol port inventory in the port area had an unexpected reduction, with the unloading speed far lower than expected. The visible unloading of foreign vessels was only 9.20 tons, and the slow ship - entering speed in Zhejiang dragged down the unloading. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas, the pick - up and consumption were stable, and the inventory in East China decreased significantly. The inventory in the South China port continued to accumulate. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic vessels arrived, but the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory increased. In Fujian, the inventory increased slightly [4] - **Price Trend**: Short - term correction and medium - term volatility. In the short term, due to the departure of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, methanol futures corrected. In the medium term, it will fluctuate because of the "anti - involution" policy and the short - term contraction in supply [4] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has reached its short - term upward limit, and investors should be wary of a decline in sentiment [1]. - Soybean oil will trade in a range, and investors should pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: closing price (day session) was 8,936 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.85%, closing price (night session) was 8,922 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.16%. Trading volume was 673,443 lots, an increase of 45,660 lots, and open interest was 456,448 lots, a decrease of 59,879 lots [2]. - Soybean oil主力: closing price (day session) was 8,144 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%, closing price (night session) was 8,112 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.39%. Trading volume was 382,038 lots, a decrease of 18,122 lots, and open interest was 504,638 lots, a decrease of 17,389 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: closing price (day session) was 9,457 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.37%, closing price (night session) was 9,384 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.77%. Trading volume was 309,343 lots, an increase of 44,920 lots, and open interest was 210,783 lots, a decrease of 1,202 lots [2]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: spot price was 9,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: spot price was 8,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: spot price was 9,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 64 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 186 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 521 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 792 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 896,484 tons, a 15.22% decrease compared to the same period last month [3]. - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to the same period last month [5]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IPA) and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (IPOA) signed a three - year agreement to deepen economic ties and ensure food security [5]. - The US Soybean Export Association (USSEC) believes it is reasonable for India to import soybeans from the US. In 2023/24, India imported 970,000 tons of non - GM soybeans from African countries, but in 2024/25, imports decreased by 84% to 154,000 tons [5]. - In Q2 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and from January to June, production reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). From April to June, soybean oil consumption as a raw material increased by 10% to 1.6 million tons, and its proportion in biodiesel production reached a record 79% in May and June. During this period, Brazil's soybean oil exports remained at 420,000 tons [6]. - After Argentina raised export taxes, soybean sales slowed down last week. As of July 16, farmers had pre - sold 26.64 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 400,000 tons more than the previous week; 450,000 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, 30,000 tons more than the previous week; and 40.71 million tons of 2023/24 soybeans, 10,000 tons more than the previous week [7]. - Expana raised its forecast for EU rapeseed production this year to 19.6 million tons, up from 19.2 million tons last month and a 16.7% increase from last year. The soybean production forecast remained unchanged at 3 million tons, a 3.2% decrease from last year [8]. - As of the week ending July 20, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 151.12% to 202,400 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to July 20, 2025, exports were 9.437 million tons, a 40.93% increase from the same period last year. As of July 20, the commercial inventory was 1.1823 million tons [8]. - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased by 4.4 million tons, with EU production decreasing by 3 million tons and Ukraine's by 1 million tons to 3.7 million tons. Ukraine's rapeseed exports were 3.1 million tons, a 16% decrease year - on - year. In the 2025/26 season, due to adverse weather, UkrAgro Consult estimated Ukraine's rapeseed production to be between 2.7 - 2.8 million tons [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10].

2025 年 7 月 28 日 品 研 究 焦炭：情绪兑现，宽幅震荡 焦煤：情绪兑现，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2509 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 1259 | 涨跌(元/吨) 60. 5 | 流跌幅 5.05% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | | 12509 | 1763 | 28 | 1.61% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 2189213 | 519305 | 55992 | | | | J2509 | 65730 | 37395 | -746 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1450 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1400 | 涨跌(元/吨) 50 | | | 焦煤 | 山西仓单成本 | 924 | 924 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1200 | 1029 | 171 | | | | 吕梁低硫 ...