2025 年 8 月 8 日 1）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 不锈钢：供应弹性现实与宏观预期博弈，钢价震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,850 | 780 | 2,020 | -2,510 | 1,480 | -2,600 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 13,000 | 65 | 195 | 65 | 300 | 290 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 96,611 | 8,771 | -47,207 | -66,010 | 8,495 | -52,992 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 85,499 | 3,48 ...

2025 年 8 月 8 日 燃料油：再次转弱，短期震荡走势为主 低硫燃料油：持续弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫 价差维持下行 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2509 | 元/吨 | 2.826 | -0. 32% | | 2.833 | 0.50% | | | | FU2510 | 元/晓 | 2.842 | 0. 50% | | 2.846 | 0.28% | | | | LU2509 | 元/晓 | 3.510 | -0. 99% | | 3.520 | -0. 34% | | | | LU2510 | 元/晓 | 3,526 | -0. 34% | | 3.545 | 0.28% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2509 | ...

2025 年 8 月 8 日 生猪：成交偏差，维持反套 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 期货研究 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 13980 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 13350 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15290 | | -250 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13870 | | 60 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 14100 | | 90 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 14395 | | 85 | | | | | 单 位 | 成 ...

商 品 研 2025 年 8 月 8 日 究 碳酸锂：周产量爬升带动累库，关注矿证续期事件 的发酵 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 71,920 | 2,660 | 3,640 | -4,760 | 8,040 | 5,400 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 209,645 | 105,940 | -312,204 | -1,560,638 | -335,760 | 191,819 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 160,551 | -1,347 | -68,817 | -276,176 | -177,483 | 118,193 | | | 盘面 | 2511合约（收盘价） ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 08 日 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.03 | -0.01 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 82 | 27 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5950 | -20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 42 | -18 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5667 | -16 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 283 | -4 | 白糖：震荡期 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西中南部压榨进度加快；印度季风降水高于 LPA；巴西 6 月出口 336 万吨，同比增加 5%。 中国 6 月进口食糖 42 万吨。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1116 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨； CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1120 万 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The cotton market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish with stable basis, the cotton yarn market has minor changes, and the cotton fabric market has limited improvement in production and sales with high inventory. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures**: For CF2601, the yesterday's closing price was 13,835 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.11%, and the night - session closing price was 13,825 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 196,806 lots, a decrease of 52,459 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 748,215 lots, a decrease of 2,804 lots. For CY2511, the yesterday's closing price was 19,705 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 19,715 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 6,245 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 15,633 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.36 cents/pound, a decline of 0.84% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,329, a decrease of 135 compared to the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts (no change). The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 88 (no change), and the valid forecasts increased by 88 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,687 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton and 18 yuan/ton respectively. The 3128B index was 15,191 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton. The international cotton index M was 74.39 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.36%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the arrival price was 22,128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, the domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different regions have different sales basis levels [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has minor changes. The knitting market in Guangdong has slightly improved, while the weaving market remains dull. The overall market feedback is average, and the cotton yarn prices are mainly stable. The cotton fabric market is cautious, with some improvement in orders for some fabric mills, but the overall order situation has not improved significantly. It is expected that the fabric mills' sales will gradually accelerate in August, and inventory will be digested, but currently, the increase in orders is limited, and the production and sales improvement is limited with high inventory [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again yesterday due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 8 日 沥青：震荡偏弱 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,552 | -0.08% | 3,538 | -0.39% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,528 | -0.03% | 3,508 | -0.57% | | 期 货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 35,708 | (13,497) | 60,579 | (7,259) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 155,921 | 21,495 | 211,556 | 712 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 76650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前 ...

2025 年 08 月 08 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：库存去化，关注市场情绪 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,655 396,110 | -45 -68,973 | -105 -14,261 | 440 -1,311,170 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 224,390 | 15,654 | 11,458 | -162,732 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 50,110 | -1,235 | 980 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 400,810 | -19,391 | -165,028 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 136,324 | -2,072 | 9,335 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | 40 | 130 | 355 | 40 | ...

期货研究 烧碱：估值低位，旺季合约偏多对待 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2413 800 2500 87 2025 年 8 月 8 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 【趋势强度】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 液碱碱出货压力较大，液碱累库，伴随省内主力下游企业采购液碱价格下调，省内东部地区 32 碱出货 情况一般，价格下行。 【市场状况分析】 近期烧碱下跌主要因为企业开工偏高，而烧碱又处于需求淡季，同时 50 碱的出口处于价格博弈阶段， 订单较少，导致 50 碱价格承压。50 碱-32 碱价差低于蒸发成本，进一步加大华东地区 32 碱现货压力。此 外，08 合约仓单对市场形成冲击，低价仓单回流现货市场，加剧了市场负反馈。 从后期行情看，烧碱 09 合约盘面估值抛开交割因素，已处于这轮预计降价的合理估值。成本端，液氯 偏弱影响，烧碱成本支撑强。而烧碱旺季需 ...

Report Overview - The report date is August 7, 2025, and it focuses on stock index options, suggesting that in a volatile and rising volatility environment with a change in implied volatility correlation, long - position investors can consider a protective put strategy [1] Market Data Statistics Underlying Market Statistics - The closing prices of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 2798.31, 4114.67, and 6862.15 respectively, with changes of 0.89, 1.18, and 0.84. Their trading volumes are 42.34 billion, 198.64 billion, and 261.39 billion hands respectively, with changes of 1.16 billion, 21.97 billion, and 3.26 billion hands [2] - For various ETFs, such as Shanghai Composite 50 ETF, Huatai - Berich 300 ETF, etc., their closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and volume changes are also presented in detail [2] Option Market Statistics - The trading volumes and changes, open interests and changes, VL - PCR, OI - PCR, and the strike prices with the largest call and put open interests (near - month) are provided for different index options and ETF options, like Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option, CSI 300 Index Option, etc. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option is 32374, with a change of 3863 [2] Option Volatility Statistics - The ATM - IV, IV changes, same - term HV, HV changes, Skew, Skew changes, and VIX and its changes are reported for near - month and next - month options of different types. For instance, the near - month ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option is 11.75%, with an IV change of 0.21% [5] Option Types Analysis Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option - Multiple charts show the full - contract PCR,主力 contract skewness trend, volatility cone, and volatility term structure, providing a comprehensive view of its market performance [8][9] CSI 300 Index Option - Similar to the Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option, there are charts for full - contract PCR,主力 contract skewness trend, volatility cone, and volatility term structure to analyze its characteristics [12][13] CSI 1000 Index Option - The report presents relevant charts for this option type, including主力 contract volatility, full - contract PCR,主力 contract skewness, volatility cone, and volatility term structure [15][16] Various ETF Options - For Shanghai Composite 50 ETF Option, Huatai - Berich 300 ETF Option, and other ETF options, their respective主力 contract volatility, full - contract PCR,主力 contract skewness, volatility cone, and volatility term structure are analyzed through charts [18][22]