国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 2026年02月06日 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，高位波动加剧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆继续收涨，连粕或跟随 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260206 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持弱势 | 10 | | 生猪：旺季不旺，预计节后中枢继续下移 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 06 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，高位波动加剧 豆油：区间震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,042 | 涨跌幅 -1.05% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,074 | 涨跌幅 0.35% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

| | | | | 期指：震荡格局 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | | maolei@gtht.com | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | 沪深300 | 4670.4 | ↓0.60 | | 5504.3 | | | | | | IF2602 | 4671.6 | ↓0.35 | 1.18 | 269 | 19234 | ↓1540 | 30891 | ↓387 | | IF2603 | 4665.2 | ↓0.35 | -5.22 | 980.1 | 70168 | ↑4930 | 161588 | ↑2340 | | IF2606 | 4636 | ↓0.40 | -34.42 | 265.2 | 19105 | ↑1540 | 75279 | ...

2026 年 02 月 06 日 究 钯：较为疲弱，重回低位 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 产 业 服 务 研 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 540. 30 | | -9.93% | | | 金交所铂金 | 546. 47 | | -7.08% | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 1971. 00 | | -11. 42% | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 1985. 20 | | -11.16% | | | 纪金期货2606 | 442. 70 | | -3.97% | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 435.00 | | 4. 57% | | 价格 | 纽约纪主连(前日) | 1.641.00 | | -5.96% | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 1,635.50 | | -7.15% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | 广铂(千克) | 31.400 ...

李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 6 日 铁矿石：钢厂补库接近尾声，矿价震荡下跌 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -13.0 | -1.66% | | | I2605 | | 768.5 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 525,113 | 9,456 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 864.0 | 876.0 | -12.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 772.0 | 784.0 | -12.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 723.0 | 734.0 | -11.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 657.0 | 669.0 | -12.0 | | | 国产 ...

鸡蛋：维持弱势 商 2026 年 2 月 6 日 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2603 | 2,891 | -1.90 | 94,442 | | -4,404 | | | 鸡蛋2604 | 3,136 | -1.54 | 39,757 | | 2,939 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋3-4价差 | | -245 | | -238 | | | | 鸡蛋4-9价差 | | -727 | | -689 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.40 | | 3.50 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.11 | | 3.24 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.50 | | 3.60 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.44 | ...

2026 年 2 月 6 日 碳酸锂：关注商品宏观情绪变化 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 | 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 132,780 | -14,440 | -32,040 | -36,000 | -5,160 | 50,580 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 531,724 | 219,827 | 10,390 | 67,327 | 227,487 | 456,982 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 329,777 | -30,1 ...

表 1：基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 06 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260206 | | | 纸浆趋势强度：0 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【行业新闻】 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.254 | 5, 324 | -70 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.274 | 5, 312 | -38 | | | | 成交量(手) | 201.726 | 210. 175 | -8. 449 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 285. 275 | 279.509 | +5.766 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 142, 447 | 142, 447 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -21, 332 | -18, 283 | -3.049 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | ୧୧ | -4 | +70 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) ...

资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，隆众资讯，CCF，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 短纤：今日短纤期货震荡走弱，现货方面今日工厂报价多维稳，半光 1.4D 主流报价在 6850~7000 元/吨 区间。短纤期货弱势下跌，贸易商、期现商优惠加大，成交放量，部分开启年后补仓囤货动作。半光 1.4D 主流商谈重心多在 6400~6700 区间。今日直纺涤短工厂产销高低分化，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 45%， 部分工厂产销：0%、60%、40%、20%、30%、0%、50%、111%、0%。纯涤纱及涤棉纱维稳，销售清淡，负 荷逐步下滑。 瓶片：上游聚酯原料震荡下跌，聚酯瓶片工厂报价局部下调 30-40 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交气氛 尚可。2-4 月订单多成交在 6170-6250 元/吨出厂不等，少量略高 6270-6390 元/吨出厂不等，略低 6140-6160 元/吨出厂不等，局部略高或略低，品牌不同价格略有差异。 （资料来源：金十数据，华瑞信息） 2026 年 02 月 06 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260206 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260206 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qia ...

| | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12880 | 550 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 11650 | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12060 | -200 | | | 货 期 | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 10995 | -155 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | | 11685 | -50 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | | 12245 | -50 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 | 较昨日 | | | 生猪2603 | 手 | 36874 | 7752 | 74864 | -8977 | | | 生猪2605 | 手 | 68397 | -1878 | 144469 | -1506 | | | 生猪2607 | 手 | 7962 | 518 | 50256 | -199 | | 价 差 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil shows a continuous rebound, and the short - term weakness has暂缓. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a narrow - range adjustment, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market remains at a historical low [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For FU2603, the closing price is 2,824 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.97%, and the settlement price is 2,815 yuan/ton with a 1.40% increase. The trading volume is 545,609 lots with a decrease of 44,176 lots, and the open interest is 84,406 lots with a decrease of 13,781 lots. - For FU2604, the closing price is 2,817 yuan/ton with a 1.40% increase, and the settlement price is 2,804 yuan/ton with a 1.23% increase. The trading volume is 26,763 lots with a decrease of 11,478 lots, and the open interest is 22,058 lots with a decrease of 709 lots. - For LU2603, the closing price is 3,299 yuan/ton with a 0.70% increase, and the settlement price is 3,293 yuan/ton with a 1.26% increase. The trading volume is 4,646 lots with a decrease of 2,578 lots, and the open interest is 14,539 lots with a decrease of 720 lots. - For LU2604, the closing price is 3,285 yuan/ton with a 1.26% increase, and the settlement price is 3,283 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase. The trading volume is 91,440 lots with a decrease of 15,961 lots, and the open interest is 80,624 lots with a decrease of 1,300 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil (FU) are 9,930 lots, and for low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) are 23,140 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: - In Singapore FOB, the high - sulfur (3.5%S) price is 425.0 dollars/ton with a 1.93% daily increase, and the low - sulfur (0.5%S) price is 461.2 dollars/ton with a 1.55% daily increase. - In Singapore Bunker, the high - sulfur price is 432.0 dollars/ton with a 1.17% daily increase, and the low - sulfur price is 490.0 dollars/ton with a 1.66% daily increase. - In other regions like Fujeirah Bunker, Zhoushan Bunker, Shanghai Bunker, Tokyo Bunker, and South Korea Bunker, there are also corresponding price increases for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [1] - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between FU03 - 04 is 7 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread is 11 yuan/ton. - The spread between LU03 - 04 is 14 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread is 10 yuan/ton, with a spread difference of - 4 yuan/ton. - The spread between LU03 - FU03 is 475 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread is 478 yuan/ton, with a spread difference of 3 yuan/ton. - The spread between FU2603 and Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) is - 126.0 yuan/ton, with a change of - 28.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - The spread between LU2603 and Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) is 98.2 yuan/ton, with a change of - 25.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - The spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) is 36.1 dollars/ton, with a change of - 1.0 dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]