2025 年 10 月 23 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4057 | -16（-0.39%） | 4063 +13（+0.32%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2885 | -12 （-0.41%） | 2911 +39 （+1.36%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1035 | +4.5（+0.44%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 289.9 | +3.5（+1.22%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | （元/吨） 山东 | 2950～2960， M2601+60/+80/+110， | 较昨-10至持平； 现货基差M2601+90， 持平或+10或+20； 平或+30； 6-9月M2609-3 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 23 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：底部磨盘 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | | 70 | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21045 | 80 | 1 35 | 350 | 410 | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21105 | ー | - | l | l | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2806 | 25 | 61 | 203 | 204 | | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 132730 | 24557 | 20228 | 31195 | -1904 | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading suggestions for each product [2]. - Many products are in a state of short - term shock, with some showing upward or downward trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and macro - events [10][18][53]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Follows the oil price rebound. In the short - term, it's a shock market. When PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge. There may be a reduction in load later. Supply - demand is slightly tight, and it has cost support [10]. - **PTA**: The demand is expected to improve marginally. It's a unilateral shock market, and short positions are recommended to be reduced. New devices are planned to start this week, and the basis has fallen [10]. - **MEG**: The demand expectation has improved, and there is a short - term rebound. Short positions are recommended to be reduced. Pay attention to the restart of some devices and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [9][10]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is in an oscillating state. The trend strength is neutral. The import volume of natural rubber in September increased, and the main rubber types and source countries showed a significant increase [11][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased, while the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber increased slightly. The supply pressure is high, but the valuation is relatively low [16][17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt has risen rapidly due to geopolitical stimulation. The trend strength is relatively strong. The domestic asphalt production in November is expected to decrease, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [19][29]. 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price fluctuates slightly, and the market is in a negative feedback stage. Supply pressure will increase, and inventory pressure is high [30][31]. 3.6 PP - PP still shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price fluctuates in a narrow range. Trade wars, high supply, and falling oil prices suppress the market price [34][35]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The far - month valuation of caustic soda is suppressed. The trend strength is neutral. The supply pressure is not significant in October, but the valuation is always restricted by the expected reduction of alumina production [38][39]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillating state. The trend strength is neutral. The futures market is strong, while the spot market is stagnant. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price of white cardboard may rise [42][44][45]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The trend strength is neutral. The market price is slightly weak, and the trading is light. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [46][47]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is neutral. The port inventory has increased slightly. The supply pressure is high, but the valuation is relatively low, and it is affected by macro - events [50][53][54]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The enterprise inventory has increased slightly. The supply pressure is large, the valuation is high, and the domestic demand is weak [55][57][58]. 3.12 Styrene - Styrene continues to have a negative feedback in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The short - term is in an oscillating state. The port inventory is expected to change from accumulation to reduction, and the downstream demand is not optimistic [59][60]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The trend strength is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [63][64]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - For LPG, the market valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks still exist. For propylene, it is supported by cost and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term. The trend strength of both is neutral [67][70]. 3.15 PVC - PVC shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price is stable, and the supply - demand situation has not improved. It is affected by trade wars, with low - level procurement mentality being weak and cost declining [74]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, with increased market fluctuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the foreign spot market has rebounded slightly. The trend strength of both is neutral [77]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is relatively resistant to decline. The shipping prices of European and US - West routes have increased to varying degrees, and the market shows certain resilience [79].

2025 年 10 月 23 日 燃料油：跟随原油上涨，盘面波动放大 低硫燃料油：短线转强，外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅回弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 漆 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2.821 | 2. 25% | | 2,792 | 1.53% | | | | FU2512 | 元/吨 | 2,715 | 1. 53% | | 2.695 | 1.13% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,106 | 2. 37% | | 3.063 | 0.89% | | | | LU2512 | 元/吨 | 3.135 | 0. 89% | | 3.100 | 1. 17% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日特仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2511 | है | 1 ...

2025 年 10 月 23 日 短纤：成交较好，短期反弹 瓶片：成交较好，短期反弹 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6146 | 6078 | ୧୫ | PF11-12 | 10 | 8 | 2 | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6136 | 6070 | 66 | PF12-01 | -24 | 26 | -50 | | | 短纤2601 | 6160 | 6044 | 116 | PF主力基差 | 164 | 215 | -51 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 164110 | 177742 | -13632 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 300 | 6. 285 | 15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Stronger Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamental data of lithium carbonate and provides information on macro and industry news, as well as the trend strength of lithium carbonate [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 76,780, with a change of 1,200 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 113,005, and the open interest was 100,619 [2] - **2601 Contract**: The closing price was 77,120, with a change of 1,140 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 376,449, and the open interest was 353,231 [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 29,019, a decrease of 873 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract was -2,430, and between spot and 2601 contract was -2,770. The basis between 2511 and 2601 contracts was -340 [2] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,845 [2] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,350, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,100 [2] - **Related Products**: The prices of various related products such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte were also provided [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,363 yuan/ton, up 253 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 7.435 million yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 7.21 million yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton [3] - Lithium spodumene imports increased significantly by 711,000 physical tons. Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe contributed 81.1% of the total imports. Australia's imports were 347,000 tons, up 64.1%; Nigeria's were about 120,000 tons, up 14.4%; and Zimbabwe's were 109,000 tons, down 7.8%. South Africa's imports reached 109,000 tons, while Mali had no arrivals in September [3][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a "Stronger" trend on a scale from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. There may be a load reduction in the later stage. PX supply and demand is slightly tight, and it has cost support from rising oil prices [7]. - PTA demand is expected to improve marginally, with a unilateral volatile market. Short positions should be reduced. New PTA devices are planned to start, and the overall profit of downstream polyester is rising [7]. - For MEG, short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the restart of some devices and the possible unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices due to profit and coal price factors [7]. Summary by Category Futures Market - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures all rose yesterday, with SC having the largest increase of 2.17%, and PF having the smallest increase of 1.09%. The price of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, and MEG1 - 5 increased, while PF12 - 1 and SC11 - 12 decreased [2]. Spot Market - PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, and Dated Brent all increased in price yesterday, with PX CFR China rising by $14/ton. The PX - naphtha spread increased by $6.34/ton, while PTA processing fee decreased by $7.3/ton [2]. Market Dynamics - PX was still strong in the afternoon. There were buy - side quotes for December floating prices +5, and January had transaction news at +2. A refinery in East China plans to shut down its 150 - million - ton reformer for maintenance later due to a fault. CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical may cut production in November. China's PX imports in September decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, with imports from South Korea decreasing and those from Brunei and Japan increasing [3][5]. - PTA futures fluctuated upward today, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and weak spot basis. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 88 [5]. - A new 80 - million - ton/year MEG device in South China plans to start trial production in early November, and a 90 - million - ton/year MEG device in East China has started maintenance today [6]. - The production and sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated, with an average of 7 - 80% by 3:30 pm. The production and sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were smooth, with an average of 138% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral view [6].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 23, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The Russia-Ukraine crisis has eased [2][4] - **Silver**: Spot contradictions have eased, with prices rising and then falling [2][5] - **Copper**: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][9] - **Zinc**: Ranging within a certain interval [2][12] - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][18] - **Aluminum**: The trend is oscillating and slightly bullish; Alumina is grinding at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - **Nickel**: In the short - term, there is a narrow - range oscillation, and contradictions are still accumulating [2][23] - **Stainless Steel**: It is difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, and costs limit the downside space [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: The closing prices of domestic and international gold - related contracts generally declined. For example, the daily decline of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 4.17%, and the decline of Comex Gold 2512 was 0.53%. ETF holdings decreased, and inventory increased slightly. There were multiple macro - news such as Trump canceling the meeting with Putin and the Fed's plan to relax bank capital requirements [5] - **Silver**: The daily decline of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 3.42%, and the night - session showed a slight increase. Inventory decreased significantly. Spot contradictions eased, and prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling [5] Copper - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased slightly by 0.02%. Trading volume and open interest changed, and inventory decreased. For example, Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 1,125 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons [9] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper decreased by 400 yuan/ton. There were various macro and industrial news, such as the strong earnings season on Wall Street and Peru's decline in copper production [9][11] Zinc - **Market Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.14%. Inventory decreased, and the LME zinc cash - 3M premium increased significantly. There were news such as the bankruptcy of PrimaLend in the secondary lending market [12][13] Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased slightly by 0.09%. Inventory decreased significantly, with Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreasing by 3156 tons and LME lead inventory decreasing by 3175 tons. There were news about the strong earnings season on Wall Street and the US government shutdown [16] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.29%. The price of SMM 1 tin ingot increased by 7,000 yuan/ton. Inventory increased slightly, and there were multiple macro - news [18][19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 4887.86 yuan/ton, showing an increase. There were news such as the US government shutdown and the India - US trade agreement [21][22] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract increased slightly. It was in a state of grinding at the bottom [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the ADC12 theoretical profit increased [21] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased slightly. There were events such as the Indonesian government taking over a nickel mine area and China suspending a non - official subsidy for Russian nickel imports [23][24] - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract increased slightly. It was difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, and costs limited the downside space [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the short - term resonance of slaughter, fat - standard, and second - fattening emotions in the pig market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 11,500 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 11,460 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2511 is 11,460 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2601 is 12,220 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2603 is 11,585 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Live Pig 2511, the trading volume is 10,907 lots, a decrease of 10,641 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 20,254 lots, a decrease of 1,687 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2601, the trading volume is 80,626 lots, a decrease of 52,113 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 103,570 lots, an increase of 408 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2603, the trading volume is 15,659 lots, a decrease of 13,058 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 84,415 lots, an increase of 1,227 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2511 is 520 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 315 yuan/ton; the basis of Live Pig 2601 is - 240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 265 yuan/ton; the basis of Live Pig 2603 is 395 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 280 yuan/ton; the spread between Live Pig 11 - 1 is - 760 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the spread between Live Pig 1 - 3 is 635 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 3.3 Futures Research - New delivery warehouses have been added by Yuexiu and Yangxiang. - In September, the national feed production of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [4].

2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 3 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：底部磨盘 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 14 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面较抗跌 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 2 ...