发布日期:2026-01-22 CEA挂牌均价小幅下跌,CCER溢价率收窄 今日 1、CEA:挂牌7.6万吨,大宗86.0万吨;挂牌成交均价77.27元/吨(-1.69%) 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.00万吨,成交均价80.00元/吨(-5.04%) 信号强度:0(0为空仓,士1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 策略 2、目前卖方出货意愿较低,买方采购意愿零星显现,买卖盘价差偏高,市场成交较为 全国碳市场行情简报 (2026年第14期) 1、近期市场成交多为跨行业结转回购,成交价格受回购合同制约,导致CEA日内波动 增加,价格或偏离市场估值。 大宗协议成交量 0.00 22. 00 64. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 单向竞价成交量 0. 00 0.00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 总成交额(万元) #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1.716 5.275 图表3:CEA每日成交数量(万吨,李节图) 图表2:CEA每日挂牌协议均价(元/吨,李节图) 元/吨。 ·2022 力啡 -2022 -2023 -2024 -2023 -2025 -2024 -2025 -2 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱上下反复未来趋势走向何方 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年1月 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点及策略 1 玻璃观点：减产预期则向上，不减产则交易交割压力和远期升水过高 空头主要逻辑： 1、终端需求并未改善，订单 普遍零散且回款问题仍有压 力； 2、反通缩、反内卷虽是趋势， 但是落地时间可能会比较晚， 期货高升水是错误； 3、期货远期持续高升水，导 致中间库存压力较大，仓单 压力较大。 三大要点： 反通缩、反内卷因素； 房地产能不能稳住； 期货高升水及交割因素； 多头主要逻辑： 1、盈亏比合适，价格处于近 十年低位。全行业亏损； 2、反通缩、反内卷是趋势， 未来湖北地区石油焦改天然 气； 3、房地产4年下跌，进一步 缩量空间有限； 空头交易路线 期货升水达到20% 库存同比、环比升高 供应收缩不明显或短期 处于政策空窗期 期现：买入现货，做空期货 杠杆：扩大期货/现货 头寸比例 平仓：估值因素950-1000元/吨，基差回归 风险： ...

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：资金市，单边价格继续上涨 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：空头减仓离场，单边价格大幅上涨 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260123 | 5 | | 合成橡胶:强势运行 | 7 | | LLDPE：风偏继续外溢，基差走弱明显 | 9 | | PP：排产低位维持，PP利润暂修复有限 | 10 | | 烧碱：低位震荡 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260123 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：跟随化工板块上行 | 15 | | 尿素：震荡整理，下方有支撑 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：内外盘共振上扬 | 21 | | 丙烯：现货维持紧平衡 | 21 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：夜盘上涨，波动持续上升 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差再次下跌 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 26 | | 短纤 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 23 日 对二甲苯：资金市，单边价格继续上涨 PTA：单边趋势偏强 MEG：空头减仓离场，单边价格大幅上涨 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7468 | 5298 | 3847 | 6640 | 446.4 | | 涨跌 | 262 | 144 | 158 | 144 | 5.6 | | 涨跌幅 | 3.64% | 2.79% | 4.28% | 2.22% | 1.27% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 48 | 34 | -103 | -48 | -1 | | 前日收盘价 | 42 | 44 | -117 | -40 | -0.6 | | 涨跌 | 6 | -10 | 14 | -8 | -0.4 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（ ...

2026 年 01 月 23 日 橡胶：震荡偏强 20260123 | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | | | | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 15. 850 | 15. 745 | +105 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 225 | 15.725 | +200 | | | | 成交量(手) | 182. 370 | 206. 109 | -23.739 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 183, 011 | 181, 112 | +1.899 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 109.870 | 109.870 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 39.867 | 38. 494 | +1, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The cost of ferrosilicon is expected to rise, and it will fluctuate widely; the raw material price of silicomanganese is slightly adjusted, and it will also fluctuate widely [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603, ferrosilicon 2605, silicomanganese 2603, and silicomanganese 2605 are 5610, 5586, 5772, and 5814 respectively. Their trading volumes are 108,864, 35,054, 71,826, and 141,601 respectively, and their open interests are 232,311, 85,154, 195,831, and 356,074 respectively [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5300 yuan/ton (+20.0), the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 42.7 yuan/ton - degree (-0.1), and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of ferrosilicon (spot - 03 futures) is - 310 yuan/ton (-34), and that of silicomanganese is - 92 yuan/ton (-24). The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2603 - 2605 is 24 yuan/ton (+10), and that of silicomanganese 2603 - 2605 is - 42 yuan/ton (-4). The cross - variety price difference of silicomanganese 2603 - ferrosilicon 2603 is 162 yuan/ton (-30), and that of silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 is 228 yuan/ton (-16) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Price News**: On January 22, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, and that of 75 was 5700 - 5900 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1060 - 1080 dollars/ton (+10), and that of 75 was 1100 - 1140 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton (+25) [1] - **South32 Manganese Ore Report**: South32's South African manganese ore salable output in Q4 2025 was 506,000 wet tons (down 8% quarter - on - quarter), and the sales volume was 546,000 tons (down 0.37% quarter - on - quarter). The Australian manganese ore salable output was 806,000 tons (down 5.62% quarter - on - quarter), and the sales volume was 865,000 tons (down 8.37% quarter - on - quarter). The 2026 fiscal year output guidance of South African manganese ore remains 2 million tons, and further maintenance work is planned for Q1 2026. The 2026 fiscal year output guidance of Australian manganese ore remains 3.2 million tons, but the impact of the rainy season needs to be considered [1][3] - **Steel Mill Procurement News**: A steel mill in Jiangsu set the price of silicomanganese at 5800 yuan/ton (acceptance tax - included delivered to the factory) with a procurement volume of 700 tons. A steel mill in Shandong set the price at 5720 yuan/ton (cash tax - included delivered to the factory) with a procurement volume of 2000 tons. An East China steel mill group set the price in the East China region at 5848 - 5850 yuan/ton and in the South China region at 5950 yuan/ton. Another East China steel mill set the price at 5848 yuan/ton [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [3]

2026 年 1 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆涨跌互现，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4327 | +25（+0.58%） | 4373 | +55（+1.27%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2768 | +41 （+1.50%） | 2763 | +14（+0.51%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1064 | -1 （-0.09%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 296.2 | +4.7（+1.61%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 3090～3150， | 较昨持平至+20； 现货M2605+440， | 较昨+10； | 2月M2605+ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Rising risk sentiment in the copper market supports copper prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,700, down 0.57%, and the night - session closing price was 100,270, down 0.43%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,840, up 0.62%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 321,730, a decrease of 121,398 from the previous day, and the open interest was 647,275, an increase of 772. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 28,201, an increase of 4,664, and the open interest was 316,000, a decrease of 1,559 [1] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 143,173, a decrease of 2,408, and LME Copper inventory was 168,250, an increase of 8,850. The cancellation warrant ratio was 27.99%, a decrease of 1.38% [1] - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium, Shanghai 1 bright copper price, and various spreads such as spot - to - futures near - month spread, near - month contract to continuous - first contract spread, etc., all showed different degrees of change compared with the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The Fed's preferred inflation indicator met expectations. The US November PCE price index was 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with robust growth in personal spending. Pan Gongsheng said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - **Industry**: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid Corporation's fixed - asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared with the 14th Five - Year Plan. Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets. The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during a 15 - day strike. In December 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports increased by 7.05% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year, refined copper imports decreased by 2.19% month - on - month and 27.00% year - on - year, and scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month - on - month and 9.90% year - on - year. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating 2026 TC/RC with global miners [1][3] Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the copper price trend [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: High-level oscillation [1] - Alumina: Slight rebound [1] - Cast aluminium alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminium [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - After Trump lifted the tariff threat, the European Parliament plans to unfreeze the review of the EU-US trade agreement, and the Prime Minister of Greenland reiterated the bottom line. Initial voting on the EU-US agreement in the parliament may take place in the next few days [3]. - Nordic pension funds are accelerating their exit from the US market. Sweden's Alecta has sold most of its approximately $11 billion holdings, Denmark's AkademikerPension plans to liquidate its holdings by the end of January, and Greenland's SISA Pension is considering withdrawing half of its approximately $110 million in US stock investments [3]. - The trend strength of aluminium is 1, alumina is -1, and aluminium alloy is 1 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Aluminium - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract was 24,055, down 100 from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract was 355,802, a decrease of 112,454 from the previous trading day [1]. - The LME Aluminium 3M closing price was 3,138, up 20 from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,717, up 45 from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 192,481, a decrease of 54,805 from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminium Alloy - The closing price of the aluminium alloy main contract was 22,855, down 40 from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume of the aluminium alloy main contract was 8,386, a decrease of 2,374 from the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Aluminium - The domestic social inventory of aluminium ingots was 189,000 tons, an increase of 768,000 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - The LME aluminium ingot inventory was 509,300 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 2,657, down 14 from the previous trading day [1]. - The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was $329 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminium Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 142, an increase of 764 from the previous trading day [1]. - The three - place inventory total of aluminium alloy was 42,520, a decrease of 291 from the previous trading day [1].

商 2026 年 1 月 23 日 鸡蛋：节前现货偏强 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2602 | 3,094 | 2.55 | 6,582 | | -6,104 | | | 鸡蛋2603 | 3,095 | 1.71 | 56,249 | | 4,823 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋2-3价差 | | - 1 | | -14 | | | | 鸡蛋3-9价差 | | -865 | | -904 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.70 | | 3.60 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.44 | | 3.40 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.80 | | 3.70 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.67 | | ...