Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that on August 7, the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends. The overall trading volume of stock index futures increased, indicating a rise in investors' trading enthusiasm. The report also presents data on price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and the position changes of the top 20 members of the futures contracts, along with information on trend strength and important economic drivers [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Index and Spot Data Tracking - **Index Futures Price and Change**: On August 7, the closing prices of the four major stock indexes showed different trends. The CSI 300 rose 0.03% to 4,114.67, the SSE 50 rose 0.03% to 2,798.31, the CSI 500 fell 0.31% to 6,337.54, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.01% to 6,862.15. Among the corresponding futures contracts, IF2508 fell 0.07%, IH2508 fell 0.01%, IC2508 fell 0.50%, and IM2508 fell 0.18% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of all four major stock index futures increased. IF increased by 19,361 lots, IH by 11,776 lots, IC by 15,809 lots, and IM by 19,113 lots. The total open interest also increased, with IF up 7,431 lots, IH up 2,077 lots, IC up 3,443 lots, and IM up 4,114 lots [1][2]. 3.2 Basis Data The report provides the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from July 14 to August 7, showing the basis changes of the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [4]. 3.3 Position Changes of Top 20 Members The report shows the long and short position changes of the top 20 members of each futures contract. For example, in the IF contracts, the long positions of IF2508 and IF2509 increased by 2,185 and 4,996 lots respectively, and the short positions increased by 1,562 and 3,282 lots respectively [5]. 3.4 Trend Strength The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers In July, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 8% year - on - year (previous value: 7.2%), imports increased by 4.8% (previous value: 2.4%), and the trade surplus was 705.1 billion yuan (previous value: 825.8 billion yuan). In US dollars, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.9%), imports increased by 4.1% (previous value: 1.1%), and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars (previous value: 114.75 billion US dollars). In the first seven months, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6]. 3.6 Stock Market Performance The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.85 trillion yuan, up from 1.76 trillion yuan the previous day. The rare earth permanent magnet concept led to a warming of cyclical stocks, and the military stocks maintained their popularity. The rare earth permanent magnet, rare earth, and IGBT concepts led the gains, while three pharmaceutical sub - sectors, CRO, weight - loss drugs, and innovative drugs, led the decline [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Weakening trend, hold 9 - 1 reverse spreads [5][12] - PTA: Weakening trend, consider long - short spreads at low levels, hold short positions on a single - side basis [5][12] - MEG: Long MEG and short PTA/PX [6][12] - Rubber: Sideways movement [13] - Synthetic rubber: Short - term sideways movement [17] - Asphalt: Weakening sideways movement [21] - LLDPE: Still under pressure [37] - PP: Spot prices down, average trading volume [41] - Caustic soda: Low valuation, take a long position on peak - season contracts [44] - Pulp: Sideways movement [49] - Glass: Stable original sheet prices [55] - Methanol: Under pressure and moving sideways [59] - Urea: Short - term under pressure and moving sideways [64] - Styrene: Take profit when squeezing profits [67] - Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [70] - LPG: Weak cost support [75] - Propylene: Short - term weak sideways movement [76] - PVC: Weakening sideways movement [90] - Fuel oil: Weakening again, mainly short - term sideways movement [92] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Continuing to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market keeps declining [92] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Hold short positions on the October contract as appropriate [94] - Short - fiber: Limited downside space, short - term sideways movement, long PF and short PR [32] - Bottle chips: Limited downside space, short - term sideways movement, long PF and short PR [32] - Offset printing paper: Sideways movement at a low level, lack of upward momentum [34] - Pure benzene: Weakening sideways movement [35] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities. For example, some products are under pressure due to increased supply or weak demand, while others may have potential upward momentum due to cost support or expected policy changes [12][38][62] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand pressure increases, prices follow the decline of upstream crude oil and naphtha. PTA device out - of - plan maintenance may lead to weaker demand for PX. Hold 9 - 1 reverse spreads [8][12] - **PTA**: Spot supply is sufficient, basis weakens. Low processing fees may lead to out - of - plan changes in PTA's operating load. Consider long - short spreads at low levels, hold short positions on a single - side basis [9][12] - **MEG**: Overseas multiple devices have maintenance plans, imports in September may decline. Long MEG and short PTA, pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the main contract roll - over [12] Rubber - The futures market shows an increase in trading volume and positions. The spot market has little change in prices. The raw material prices in Thailand decline, while those in Yunnan are firm, and the supply in Hainan gradually recovers. The overall trend is sideways [14][16] Synthetic rubber - The futures market has changes in trading volume, positions, and prices. The spot market shows price fluctuations in various products. The inventory of sample enterprises increases slightly, and the port inventory of butadiene rises. The short - term trend is sideways [17][18] Asphalt - The futures market has price changes and trading volume fluctuations. The spot market shows price increases in some regions and a decline in refinery operating rates. The overall trend is weakening sideways [22][36] LLDPE - The spot market has narrow price fluctuations. Macro data is bearish, cost support weakens. Supply pressure increases in the third quarter, but the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical in September may relieve the supply pressure in the East China region. The trend is still under pressure [37][38] PP - The spot market has partial price declines, and trading volume is average. The futures market has little guidance on the spot market. The short - term trend is neutral [41][42] Caustic soda - The current price decline is due to high enterprise operating rates, off - season demand, and price competition in exports. The 09 - contract valuation is at a low level, and the cost support is strong. The downstream peak - season restocking may drive the price upward. Take a long position on peak - season contracts [46] Pulp - The futures market has price increases and a decline in trading volume and positions. The spot market shows price declines in various pulp types. The price is affected by factors such as futures decline, weak demand, and supply pressure. The overall trend is sideways [50][53] Glass - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in trading volume and positions. The spot market shows stable to slightly weak prices, and short - term sales are under pressure. The trend is neutral [56] Methanol - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in positions. The spot market shows price declines in ports and increases in some inland areas. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as fund outflows and basis strengthening, and the medium - term trend is sideways [60][62] Urea - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in trading volume and positions. The spot market shows price fluctuations in some regions. The daily production and operating rate increase, and the enterprise inventory decreases. The short - term trend is under pressure, and the medium - term trend is sideways [64][66] Styrene - The pure benzene supply and demand increase, while the styrene supply increases and demand decreases. The styrene port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation phase. Focus on squeezing the profit of styrene. Take profit when squeezing profits [67][68] Soda ash - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in positions. The spot market shows little change, with weak and stable prices and average trading volume. The trend is neutral [72] LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: The futures market has price declines and changes in trading volume and positions. The cost support is weak. Pay attention to the changes in relevant indicators such as PDH operating rate [76] - **Propylene**: The short - term trend is weak sideways movement [76] PVC - The spot market has firm prices, but the trading atmosphere is dull. The industry profit expands, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. The market may short the chlor - alkali profit. The trend is weakening sideways [89][90] Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil - **Fuel oil**: The futures market has price changes and trading volume fluctuations. The price weakens again, and the short - term trend is sideways [92] - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Continuing to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market keeps declining [92] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The futures market has price changes and trading volume fluctuations. The freight rates of relevant routes decline. Hold short positions on the October contract as appropriate [94]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 08 日 铜：美元下跌，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,460 | 0.23% | 78360 | -0.13% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,671 | -0.04% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 42,710 | -13,679 | 157,601 | -973 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,901 | -1,982 | 263,000 | -2,005 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 20,145 | -201 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 156,000 | -125 | 7.13% | 0.13% | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamental data and relevant macro and industry news [4][6][10] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 793.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (-0.19%). The open - position decreased by 22,928 hands. Among spot prices, PB decreased by 3.0 yuan/ton, and others remained stable. Some basis and spreads changed slightly [6] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month; imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore, down 1.3% month - on - month [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [7] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; HC2510 closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. Open - positions decreased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. Basis and spreads changed [10] - **News**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. Weekly data on August 7 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased, and the price of manganese ore increased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [14] - **News**: There were price changes in silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [15][16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [16] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 increased. Some spot prices remained stable, while the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased. Basis and spreads changed [18] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [20] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts had small changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [22] - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]

郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2508 | 2,072.7 | -0.37% | 216 | 3,579 | -121 | 0.06 | 0.11 | | | EC2510 | 1,420.4 | -0.98% | 26,142 | 53,596 | -765 | 0.49 | 0.89 | | | EC2512 | 1,763.2 | 0.21% | 4,400 | 9,760 | 179 | 0.45 | 1.11 | | | | 本 期 | | 2025/8/4 | | 单 位 | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 2,297.86 | | ...

2025 年 8 月 8 日 原油：正套持有，关注美对俄能源制裁 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 1. 金十数据 8 月 8 日讯，当地时间 8 月 7 日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基与欧洲多国领导人通电话，讨 论俄乌局势。意大利总理梅洛尼当地时间 8 月 7 日分别与特朗普、泽连斯基以及阿联酋总统穆 罕默德分别通电话，聚焦俄乌冲突。意大利总理府公告说，意大利总理梅洛尼呼吁俄乌双方达 成停火协议，通过谈判途径确保乌克兰实现公正持久的和平。泽连斯基 7 日在社交媒体上称， 他与阿尔巴尼亚总理埃迪·拉马进行了卓有成效的电话会谈。此外，泽连斯基与到访的罗马尼 亚外交部长瓦娜-西尔维娅·措尤举行了会晤。 2. 美国财政部：发布针对伊朗的新制裁措施，针对若干个人和实体。 3. 金十数据 8 月 7 日讯，数据提供商 Kpler 的数据显示，由于美国和欧盟对俄罗斯石油买家的压 力打击了需求，俄罗斯对印度出口的主要石油价格出现了折扣。"印度炼油商需求下降正开始 产生强烈影响，尤其是国有炼油商，据报道，它们正考虑全面暂停进 ...

2025年08月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 8 日 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 不锈钢：供应弹性现实与宏观预期博弈，钢价震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供应弹性现实与宏观预期博弈，钢价震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：周产量爬升带动累库，关注矿证续期事件的发酵 | 4 | | 工业硅：库存去化，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场信息发酵情况 | 6 | 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,850 | 780 | 2,020 | ...

2025年08月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，低位布多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易协议 | 2 | | 豆粕：出口较好、美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 | 5 | | 豆一：移仓换月，盘面震荡 | 5 | | 玉米：弱势运行 | 7 | | 白糖：震荡期 | 8 | | 棉花：窄幅震荡 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货存在反弹情绪 | 11 | | 生猪：成交偏差，维持反套 | 12 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 8 日 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易协议 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,950 | 涨跌幅 -0.22% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,012 | 涨跌幅 0.69% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,406 | ...

资料来源：Bloomberg，同花顺 iFinD，SMM，SHMET，国泰君安期货研究 2025 年 08 月 08 日 【新闻】 铅：LME 注销仓单增加，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16875 | 0.12% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1997 | 1.09% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 32431 | -16214 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 8698 | 1779 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 62019 | -3000 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 150329 | 305 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -35 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -35.88 | 6.04 | | （元/吨） | | | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 8 日 鸡蛋：现货存在反弹情绪 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,391 | 1.16 | | -42,778 | -5,713 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,576 | -1.41 | | 14,476 | 3,993 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋9-10价差 | | 99 | | 93 | | | | 鸡蛋9-1价差 | | -185 | | -246 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.90 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.62 | | 2.62 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.90 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | | ...