在关键的美国 CPI 数据公布前夕，贸易局势有望缓和，市场情绪显著回暖，三大美股指普涨。（华尔街 见闻） 铅：库存持续减少，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17565 | 2.27% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1995 | 0.10% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 108649 | 80984 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 8372 | 3963 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 74538 | 23625 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 154597 | 1744 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -10 | 10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -39.73 | -0.04 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | ...

2025 年 10 月 24 日 锌：关注 LME 库存 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22345 | 1.57% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3019.5 | 0.87% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 164360 | 62086 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 12135 | 182 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 124740 | -7952 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 221889 | 300 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -55 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 338.74 | 43.74 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 苯乙烯：短期跟随原油反弹 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 （《国泰君安期货周报》） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2512 | 6,848 | 6,943 | -95 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2601 | 6,875 | 6,974 | -99 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2610 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB120EB01 | -27 | -31 | 4 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB01-EB10 | -512 | -400 | -112 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 73 ...

2025 年 10 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 硅铁：成本底部抬升，宽幅震荡 锰硅：成本底部抬升，宽幅震荡 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2601 | 5574 | 3 6 | 128,690 | 184,331 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5632 | 3 4 | 1,605 | 6,799 | | | 锰硅2601 | 5818 | 8 | 150,568 | 352,292 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5860 | 1 2 | 5,593 | 28,908 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the lithium carbonate market, stating that the premium/discount is weak and the upside potential is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate are 79,380 and 79,940 respectively, with corresponding trading volumes of 102,817 and 490,920, and open interests of 86,027 and 419,147. The warehouse receipt volume is 28,759 hands [2]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2511 is -4,580, and spot - 2601 is -5,140. The basis of 2511 - 2601 is -560 [2]. - **Raw Material Data**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) are 870 and 1,890 respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are 74,800 and 72,550 respectively [2]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are provided, showing different price changes over different time intervals [2]. Macroeconomic and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 74,821 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,800 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,550 yuan/ton, also up 450 yuan/ton [3]. - This week, the lithium carbonate production is 21,308 tons, an increase of 242 tons from last week, and the industry inventory is 130,366 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons from last week [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [1][7][13][16][19] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall trend of the black - series commodities in the futures market is characterized by wide - range fluctuations. Different commodities have specific influencing factors, such as demand changes, cost fluctuations, and policy expectations [2][6][8][9][13][16][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore (12601) closed at 777.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.39%. The trading volume and open interest both increased. Among the spot prices, the prices of some imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%) and PB fines (61.5%) rose slightly, while some domestic ores remained stable. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4] - **News**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee released a communiqué, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: The apparent demand improved month - on - month, with wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar (RB2601), the closing price was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.59%. For hot - rolled coil (HC2601), the closing price was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.81%. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and the apparent demand increased. In September 2025, the production of crude steel decreased year - on - year, while the production of steel products increased year - on - year [9][10][11] - **News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on October 23, the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.62 tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.41 tons, and the apparent demand increased [10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: The cost bottom has risen, with wide - range fluctuations [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were also different, and some steel mills' procurement prices changed. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads all changed [13] - **News**: According to Iron Alloy Online, on October 23, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and specifications changed, and some steel mills determined their procurement prices [13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range fluctuations [2][16][17] - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) both increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions changed, and the basis and spreads also changed [17] - **News**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee released a communiqué, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: The data source is from Wood Union Data, Dongcai Choice, and Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, but no specific data is provided [20] - **News**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee released a communiqué, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [22] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [22]

【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 2025 年 10 月 24 日 合成橡胶：宏观情绪支撑，中枢上移 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （11合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,120 99,398 | 11,050 79,454 | 70 19944 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 69,872 | 71,972 | -2100 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 552,049 | 437,752 | 114297 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -20 | 50 | -70 | | | 月差 | BR11-BR12 | | 60 | 70 | -10 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 10,850 | 10,850 | | | | | 华东 ...

燃料油：继续大涨，强势将持续 低硫燃料油：涨势稍弱，外盘现货高低硫价差 大幅收缩 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日 涨 跌 | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2, 856 | | 1.24% | 2.846 | 1.93% | | | | FU2512 | 元/吨 | 2.793 | | 1.93% | 2,771 | 2.82% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,155 | | 1. 58% | 3.148 | 2.78% | | | | LU2512 | 元/吨 | 3, 190 | | 2. 78% | 3.168 | 2. 19% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2511 | ਜੇ | 1, 439 | | 262 | 6 ...

| 杨鈜汉 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 2025 年 10 月 24 日 尿素：宏观支撑，短期反弹 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,638 | 1,621 | 1 7 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,630 | 1,617 | 1 3 | | | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 147,829 | 121,985 | 25844 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 298,840 | 312,046 | -13206 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 5,484 | 5,556 | -72 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 481,912 | 394,584 | 87328 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | -88 | -81 | - 7 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to be relatively strong due to the rebound of crude oil prices. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [1][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - BU2511 closed at 3,351 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.75%, and 3,360 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.27%. Its trading volume was 23,261 lots (a decrease of 13,871 lots), and the open interest was 20,836 lots (a decrease of 6,357 lots). - BU2512 closed at 3,294 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.80%, and 3,313 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.58%. Its trading volume was 62,268 lots (an increase of 11,812 lots), and the open interest was 62,327 lots (a decrease of 14,053 lots). - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 12,420 lots with no change [1]. - **Spot Market**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,470 yuan/ton with no change. - The refinery operating rate was 37.64% (an increase of 1.06% from the previous period), and the refinery inventory rate was 29.90% (an increase of 0.09% from the previous period) [1]. - **Spreads**: - The basis (Shandong - 11) was - 11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. - The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. - The Shandong - South China spread was - 60 (an increase of 10 from the previous day), and the East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 2. Market Information - In November 2025, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (a decrease rate of 18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (a decrease rate of 6.5%) [12]. - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 1.3% from October 16. The refinery warehouses in the Southwest and South China regions had obvious destocking. - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.394 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% from October 16. The social warehouses in Shandong and the Northwest regions had obvious destocking [12].